Future of North Cyprus: An economic-strategic appraisal

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Future of North Cyprus: An economic-strategic appraisal B.N. Ghosh, Sule L. Aker Faculty of Business and Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Gazi Magusa, North Cyprus, Mersin: 10, Turkey Available online 19 April 2006

Abstract Based on qualitative methods of study of the future, including experts interviews and the deliberations of a symposium, this paper analyses the shape of things to come for North Cyprus in the light of its historical backlog and the present scenarios. It argues that the impact of globalisation is becoming very decisive in this part of the world: there are important players including the US, Russia, Turkey, Greece, European Union, Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots in this strategic region with their vested interests and plans which will be deterministic for the fate of the Island. One of the most crucial of these plans is the Greater Middle East Initiative developed by the US. Given the vectors of forces now active in the political horizon, the future of North Cyprus to be an independent sovereign state looks within reach if Muslim countries continue recognising it. r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction The Cyprus conflict is a good example of a situation in which a small problem between two small countries can be internationalised when the interests of larger powers enter the picture. Being at the crossroads between Asia, Middle East, Africa and Europe and overlooking the Eastern Mediterranean, Cyprus has always been very attractive to regional and world powers. Her significance is turning to be more critical as the Eastern Mediterranean region is becoming one of the important junctions in energy distribution. All the interested parties intend to solve the decades old Cyprus problem, because

Corresponding author. Tel.: +90 392 630 1411; fax: +90 392 365 1017.

E-mail address: [email protected] (B.N. Ghosh). 0016-3287/$ - see front matter r 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2006.02.013

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instability in the region is not in the interest of any of them. However, no political equilibrium is being reached because every party wants to have a solution in its own way. The Cyprus problem is not a single problem, nor is it the same for the two sides (The Greek side and the Turkish side) in the Island. For the South, it is the problem of how to expel the 35,000 Turkish soldiers from the North Cyprus and marginalise Turkish Cypriots to gain full control over the Island. The North, on the other hand, wants to have an independent country recognised by the world community and to consolidate its position in the framework of a federation, confederation as an equal partner, or better, a country with full sovereignty, full independence and with well-demarcated international borders. It is indeed very difficult to make a clear-cut categorisation of the Cyprus problem. According to one researcher [1], the problem is principally a political conflict involving a long-standing tension between two ethnic communities that want to protect their own identities and interests. In our view, the basic problem to start with is the clash of cultures that stems from cultural, ethnic, religious and linguistic differences of the two communities (the Greek-Orthodox and the Turkish-Muslim Cypriots). If the clash were between the two peoples with the same cultural equation, the Cyprus problem would have taken an entirely different shape and would have been solved much earlier. However, as time went on, the cultural clash gained economic, social and political undertones. The protracted sociopolitical conflict has now become multi-dimensional and complex with the involvement of superpowers and has transgressed beyond the realm of inter-ethnic conflict. The importance of economic factors in the Cyprus crisis can hardly be exaggerated. Consistent and regular attempts for ENOSIS (union with Greece) on the part of the Greek Cypriots is a clear manifestation of an expansionist–imperialist motive for economic command over the resources and for controlling the strategic and political power in the Mediterranean region which is otherwise dominated by the Muslim world. Thus, we consider the Cyprus problem as one that is multi-dimensional and that defies any simple classification on the basis of the known cognate categories. Whatever be the exact nature of the Cyprus problem, it is becoming more and more convoluted with the admission of the South Cyprus in the European Union (EU). In an article in Futures, Meltem Muftuler-Bac [2] has analysed at some length the future of Cyprus keeping in view the scenario of the late 1990s. But since then much water has flown in and out of the Mediterranean and situations have undergone dramatic twist and turns to warrant another fresh look at the Cyprus problem. This paper will analyse the future of the Island in the light of the development that has taken place after the 1990s up until now. The rest of the paper is organised in the following way: a historical background of the Cyprus problem will be presented in Section 2. Section 3 will concentrate on the roles of the major players and the impact of globalisation. Section 4 will present the discussion of a symposium and the interviews of experts on the future of Turkish Republic of North Cyprus (TRNC). Section 5 will analyse the possible alternative models for a solution, followed by the final section that will make some concluding observations about the probable and foreseeable future of North Cyprus. 2. The future in the past The future of North Cyprus is embedded in its past, a past that has given it certain social, political and historical characteristics. Thus, knowledge of the historical

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background of North Cyprus is indeed necessary to analyse its future. This is the basic aim of the present section. The state of North Cyprus, the TRNC was born out of the turmoil that followed the murder and expulsion perpetrated by the Greek Cypriots in 1974 in a coup d’etat attempt. The Turkish intervention on July 20, 1974, saved the Turkish Cypriots from extinction and was responsible for creating a safe haven for its harassed population. The Washington Times [3] reports that Greek Cypriots began massacring Turkish Cypriots civilians in December 1963, and continued for several sanguinary months, and finally on February 17, 1964, the ‘‘Greek Cypriot fanatics appear bent on a policy of genocide’’. The earlier President of Greek Cyprus, Makarios, was ousted by the hard liners from the presidency of the country in 1974, because they claimed that he was going too slowly in expelling the Turkish Cypriots from the Island. Makarios complained in the United Nations (UN) Security Council against Greece and described the Greek intervention in these words [4]: ‘‘The coup (on the Island) did not come about under such circumstances as to be considered an internal matter of the Greek Cypriots. It is clearly an invasion from outside in flagrant violation of the independence and sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus. The so-called coup was the work of Greek officers staffing and commanding the Greek contingents’’. The Athens Court of Appeal in a historic decision on March 21, 1979 said thus: ‘‘The Turkish military intervention in Cyprus, which was carried out in accordance with the Zurich and London Agreements, was legal. Turkey, as the one of the guarantor powers, had the right to fulfil her obligations. The real culprits are the Greek officers who engineered and staged a coup and prepared the conditions for this intervention’’ [5]. In international agreements recognised earlier by various nations including Turkey, UK and Greece, the two communities—the Turkish Cypriots and the Greek Cypriots—were given equal rights, opportunities and political freedom. This was duly recognised by the foreign ministers of Turkey, Greece and United Kingdom who met in Geneva shortly thereafter and in their declaration made on July 30, 1974 recognised the ‘‘the existence in practice of the Republic of Cyprus of two autonomous administrations, that of the Greek Cypriot community and that of the Turkish Cypriot community’’ [6]. The TRNC was established on November 15, 1983. It was not just an expression of the right to selfdetermination but was an attempt to establish a safe haven for the Turkish Community in Cyprus [7]. A few important recent facts of empirical reality must be taken into account before we proceed further. Some of these are: there is no immediate fear of invasion of one by the other part of Cyprus; there is a peaceful coexistence of the two states since 1974, and lately, the citizens of these states are allowed free movement across these countries without any untoward incident. All these show that an atmosphere of mutual tolerance, understanding and friendship at the level of citizenry has already been established between the two countries—the North and the South Cyprus. However, there are many disquieting issues that a political observer may not lose sight of. Recently, South Cyprus has been admitted by the EU as its full member. The permission given to the South side to join the EU contravenes the 1960 Constitution which says: ‘The Republic of Cyprus undertakes not to participate, in whole or in part, in any political or economic union with any state whatsoever’’. But it has happened; so the EU went against the international law. The entry of the South Cyprus in the EU, and the presence of Greece already in the EU will strengthen the hands of the South against the North Cyprus.

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However, with the Greek Cypriots’ ‘‘no’’ vote in the referendum for Annan Plan (2003)—the last attempt to unify the Island—has proved to be a failure for which the Greek side is to be blamed. During the preparation of the Annan Plan, the Turkish Cypriot side made many goodwill gestures such as opening the border between the two sides, opening a Greek Cypriot secondary school on the Turkish side, permitting Greek Cypriot religious ceremonies in TRNC, permitting excavations to account for the missing people, cleaning mines in the Turkish territories and around the borders. Maronites living in the Turkish side were permitted to elect their muhtar (political head of the village). But the desired rapprochement still did not occur. 3. Major players in the Cyprus roulette: The impact of globalisation Like the proverbial elephant and the blind man, globalisation means different things to different persons. The neo-liberal globalisation is, however, a planned strategy to fully access the huge potential markets and exploitation of cheap resources from, and deploy the under-utilised capital and old technology of the developed countries, to the Third world. The advocates of globalisation, however, argue that it is a win–win situation, and through this process of integration, modern know–how, technology and higher living standards are disseminating around the world, helping many regions in their economic development. The bad news is that globalisation has had many contradictory dynamics that permit not only homogenisation and integration but also many types of fragmentation and disintegration that exacerbate cultural conflicts, civilisational disharmony, disembeddedness of the civil society and weakening power of the state in less developed countries. The vestiges of globalisation, implying global interactions and discursions are visible in the activities of many interested parties in this part of the world. The South is already integrated with the Western capitalist club, the so-called EU. Cyprus thus is experiencing not only the impact of regional forces but also of global forces, though the admixture often produces contradictory repercussions. Many optimists, however, feel that if a full-scale internationalisation is permitted in the Island of Cyprus, in the longer-run, some positive developments in the forms of better x-efficiency, modern institutional, legal and infrastructural changes might be in the offing; but the process is also likely to create environmental damages and cultural corrosion. Fortunately or unfortunately, here the space of globalisation, due to many political conflicts and frictions, has remained circumscribed. The apprehension is that an unrestrained speed of globalisation may be in conflict with the principles of self-government and independence. Although the index of globalisation is pretty low, many actors are conspicuous by their presence in the political drama of Cyprus, and each one is trying to have his cut. These actors are: Greece, Russia, Turkey, the USA, the UK and now the EU. Why such a row over Cyprus? Quite clearly, Cyprus is a strategic island in the geo-political region of the Mediterranean area for reasons more than one. It is a gateway to Europe and the Mediterranean; it is on the oil route; it has the potentiality of becoming an air base and strategic military zone; it is on the passage of the supply line of military hardwares and logistics in and around this area. Any discussion on the future of TRNC has to take into account the politico–economic interest and the gunboat diplomacy of some of the players in this political roulette. The case needs to be considered in the perspective of a regional–global economic-strategic framework which will be accommodated in our analytic umbrella.

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‘‘That history and geography are interrelated sciences is nowhere more clearly shown than in the history of Cyprus whose whole past, present and future is intimately bound up with her geographical position as an island in the Eastern Mediterranean within easy sailing distance of Asia Minor, Syria and Egypt’’ [8]. The future of North Cyprus is going to be shaped by the counteracting influences of the players in this region including the US which has a major stake. To comprehend the scope and direction of strategic developments in the region, it is important to analyse the Greater Middle East Initiative (GMEI) of the United States, because it is a project to redesign the whole region including North Cyprus. The Initiative was developed by the US more than a decade ago to secure a stable flow of petroleum to the US and Europe for the next 50 years. The impact of petrol war [9] in this region will also be reflected on the issue of Cyprus, as the players have different self-interests which are often conflicting in nature. The world’s powerful countries will be competing for the scarce oil resources in the GME region, and North Cyprus is on one of these oil routes. Thus, the Cyprus problem is attracting the attention of both global and regional forces. Very often, it is the clash between the global reality and the historical actuality and also the contradictory dynamics of globalisation that create more problems than they solve, and this explains the ageing of the Cyprus problem. Most of the GME states are under some kind of control by the US. What then is the need for a new initiative? The answer is that the heads of the states may be hand-in-hand with the US, but there is a growing discontent at the grassroots level in the GME region. The revolt against Pax-Americana manifested itself as radical Islam and terrorism. The petroleum income not reaching the people of the GME region is documented in ‘‘G-8 Greater Middle East Partnership Working Paper’’ published in Al-Hayat, a London-based daily [10]. Terrorism, Islamic radicalism, continuing military conflicts, legal and illegal migration to the Western countries are all uncomfortable outcomes of the imbalances, humiliation and repression of the masses in the GME and North African (NA) regions. So the Bush Administration has decided to develop a plan for democratisation, good governance, building a knowledge society and expanding economic opportunities to the GME people [11]. It has also suggested the importance of moderate Islam as in Turkey as a model to replace radical Islamism in this Muslim–dominated area [12]. A problematic Island in the Eastern Mediterranean is not in the plans of the US, because conflicts cause inefficiencies in global trade and business, and the tempo of globalisation is hampered. The Initiative gave the first try to solve the Cyprus problem by developing the famous Annan Plan for a federal state in Cyprus, which has failed. The Initiative now foresees two small states in the Island. North Cyprus holds a more important position strategically because of its proximity to the Baku-Tiflis-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline which has the potentiality to create a new geographic route called East-West Corridor for oil transportation [13]. Ceyhan is only 50 miles away from North Cyprus and an increase in economic activity in that part of the Eastern Mediterranean will very favourably affect the economy of North Cyprus. Because of this strategic location and of the close ties with Turkey, North Cyprus will be a part of the globalisation process projected by the GME Initiative and it will have a very positive economic and political value added in the future. North Cyprus being on the strategic oil route, it will not be wrong to presume that she will be a part of an economically very fast developing region. The US will perhaps prefer North Cyprus to be a part of the globalised area under her direct control rather than a part of the

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EU where protectionism in trade and other strict EU rules and regulations may be working against the philosophy globalisation. The EU, a regional block, is one of the actors influencing the future of North Cyprus. Turkish candidacy membership seems to be valuable for the EU’s future security goals and North Cyprus’s political future [14]. It is not in the interest of the US to allow North Cyprus to be a part of the EU regionalism, because the TRNC is needed to liberalise her trade and economy to support the globalisation process in the region. However, some of the countries in the EU, like France, will want to include the whole Island in the EU region to have a stronger presence in the Eastern Mediterranean. But it is impossible for the EU to leave the US alone in this region [15]. The joint agreement between the US and the EU in the GME project will soften the EU approach towards North Cyprus. For instance, some of the EU countries, like England, are exploring the possibilities of establishing direct trade links with the TRNC [16]. However, some members of the EU will not be interested in solving the problem in favour of North Cyprus, because they do not recognise the existence of North Cyprus as an independent sovereign country. Russia is interested in Cyprus for two reasons: First, it is good to have more allies, and second, Russia is the largest country in the world, but it has very few outposts at the sea, and South Cyprus is one of these contacts. There are around 50 thousand Russians living in the South Cyprus, three daily Russian newspapers are printed, hundreds of off-shore firms and banks are connecting Russia and South Cyprus financially. Up until now, Russia has $40 billion circulating in South Cyprus [17]. She was helping the South also as a defence guard against the threat coming from the British bases. She had supplied an advanced missile system, the SS 300, to be installed at Paphos in the South. But Turkey expressed her determination to destroy the Russian missiles if they were deployed. So, missiles were not virtually installed, and a major crisis was averted in the region. Russia’s basic interest, like that of the US, is to sell arms to prop up its economy. Although Russia is improving her relations with the EU, it is in between two worlds, and leaning more towards the West. Recently, Putin made a remarkable gesture saying that the meaningless embargo on the TRNC should be lifted [18]. He stated that from now on, Russia is going to establish relations with the two sides in Cyprus (not only with South Cyprus as before) [19]. Since this announcement by Putin, the Greek Cypriot side has been compelled to have a rethinking on the Cyprus issue. This new development in the attitude of Russia will imply a favourable point for the TRNC, and probably Russia will develop relations with the Turkish Cypriot side as well. Turkey by her own rights in terms of historical, cultural, religious and ethnic ties becomes a major player in the Cyprus drama. Cyprus is only 40 miles away from the south of Turkey, and the Mediterranean coast is the most important region of Turkey. Mersin is the third largest port in Turkey and Ceyhan will be a major petroleum distribution region. Geo-strategically, North Cyprus is like a gate to the burgeoning economic activities. Hence it supports North Cyprus. But the historical feud between Turkey and Greece is becoming too costly to both countries. Greece spending a hunk of money on arms has the difficulty of meeting the Maastrich criteria, and will have to continue without this aid in future. The two erstwhile enemy countries are now coming closer, and both celebrated recently the construction of a new energy corridor in Meric. Greek support for Turkey in her EU venture is a sign of changing attitudes in Greece. Better Turkish–Greek relations may be reflected in the solution of the Cyprus problem.

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Britain is not helping the solution of the Cyprus problem. One of the characteristics of the British diplomacy is to create problems and not to solve them (e.g., the Kashmir problem), so that her importance continues in international politics. Britain will not be interested in a federal state in the Island; firstly, because she will not want to pay all the accumulated rent for the last 40 years, and secondly, when Turkish and Greek Cypriots come together, they may want to close the bases which are of interest to Britain. Also, in a federal state solution, if the whole Island becomes a part of the EU, European countries will be interested in using the bases, and England will lose its upper-hand and independence in the bases. The impact of globalisation on the future of North Cyprus is further elaborated in the next section, partly based on expert interviews and on the deliberations of a symposium. 4. Future of North Cyprus: Applying qualitative methods It is necessary to study the future on the basis of a suitable methodological framework. In this regard, in quantitative studies, various methods such as extrapolation, trend analysis and regression analysis become highly relevant. However, for a qualitative analysis like the present study, one can employ various methods that include public opinion surveys, expert interviews and workshop or symposium studies. Our discussion of the future of North Cyprus will be based on the last two methods of future analysis. 4.1. International symposium on the cyprus issue An international symposium on the Cyprus issue that took place between June 12–14, 2001 was held in the Near East University of North Cyprus. The following deliberations were made on the June 14, 2001 on the possible future of the Island [20 pp. 318–418]. While speaking on the ‘‘UK Policy on Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean’’, Professor Dr. Clement Dodd observed that ‘‘the presence of the British bases, and other facilities, in the South is still the main reason for support by Britain, the United States and the UN Security Council for the Greek Cypriot case on Cyprus. It can be argued that Britain has not done anything as a Guarantor Power to ensure its return to the Republic of Cyprus. This is a part of the Eastern Mediterranean horror scenario that the international community is anticipating to emerge should there be no settlement. The Turkish Cypriot side has a very feasible plan for a confederation, one which the UN and the EU would do well to study very carefully, if they are not already doing so, and which certainly needs much more promotion. There are grounds for thinking that the EU might well be prepared to be accommodating about serious derogations for the Turkish Cypriots. There is a glimmer of hope, but Britain, the EU and the United States need to think along new lines if there is to be a solution’’. In his paper on ‘‘The UN Approach to the Cyprus Issue and UNFICYP’’, Osman Ertug concluded that ‘‘For our part, we have made it clear that we continue to support the efforts of the Secretary-General for a settlement, and we would be prepared to start negotiations once new parameters for negotiations have been established, These cannot be other than the acknowledgement that there are two sovereign, independent states on the Island and that neither one has the right or competence to represent the other or the Island as a whole’’.

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On the possibility of ‘‘TRNC’s Confederation Proposal’’, Professor Dr. Mumtaz Soysal emphasised on the need for negotiations on the basis of a foundation. He said ‘‘if meaningful negotiation is not possible, we will make the world accept the existence of two states’’. In the same symposium, while speaking on ‘‘Cyprus: Possible Opportunities and Threats’’, M. Ergun Olgun, like Soysal, advised the need for the application of the idea of confederation as a new model to stop the disintegration of multi-national partnerships, which will give a chance to disprove Huntington’s theory of clash of civilisations. He categorically pointed out that TRNC needs to adopt a new strategic plan which will make it possible for it to deal with some of the threats that it is facing and to build on the opportunities which are open to it. In presenting views on ‘‘Cyprus: What Should be Done for a Settlement?’’, Ambassador Korkmaz Haktanir expressed his confidence that just as two peoples live now in their own states with their own sovereignty, in future no settlement will abolish or alter these fundamental realities. He reiterated that ‘‘at least for the foreseeable future, the only safe and sound solution lies in a Cyprus with two States, with an international border between them’’. In the symposium, M. Ozkan made it clear that the European community has no definitive policy on the Cyprus problem. Clement Dodd in his presentation on ‘‘UK Policy on Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean’’ pointed out that ‘‘the major states of EU, such as Great Britain, Italy and France, and even the USA have no Cyprus policy. They have their own views and programmes on Cyprus, having their national interests in mind, and they prefer to implement these programmes within the context of the EU, as this is a much convenient process to be exploited for their own purposes’’. In his ‘‘General Evaluation and Concluding Remarks’’, Dr. Soysal observed that the real policy of the European community is to exploit the Cyprus issue as a factor in the relations between Turkey and EU. He made it abundantly clear that ‘‘when there is a great inequality between the two economies on the Island, even a confederation will be disaster for the Turkish Cypriots’’. In such a case, the TRNC will have to continue as an independent state, and some sort of integration with Turkey will be unavoidable. 4.2. Interviews with experts In making projections about the future, one of the methods that can be used is experts’ opinions on the issue. The presumption is that the people studying the developments in Cyprus are in a better position to make reliable projections. For the interviews, we have selected those nine experts including the ex-president, ex-prime ministers, ex-foreign minister, academicians, the present prime minister and education minister, who have remained active in the study of Cyprus problem and have been associated with the process of negotiation at some points of time. While interviewing these experts, our aim was to gather their considered opinion on the following three open-ended critical questions on: (i) the influences of the important actors in the Cyprus drama, (ii) the impact of globalisation, and (iii) the future of North Cyprus. The views of these experts on these issues are summarised in the discussion that follows. 4.2.1. Global externalities Expert opinions are at variance on the possible impact of globalisation for the solution of the Cyprus problem and its repercussion on North Cyprus. The major actors in the

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Cyprus drama form a series of concentric circles. The first circle is the domestic dynamics, the second circle is Turkey and Greece, and the third one is the Eastern Mediterranean and other circles extend as far as NATO, West Europe, and even global security. Some of the experts feel that the global powers have not treated the Turkish Cypriots fairly. Globalisation has disturbed the balances and natural relations between the two states in Cyprus, because powerful states supported the Greek Cypriots and tried to exert pressure on the Turkish Cypriots. The EU is not playing its proper role to solve the problem. Russia is supporting a united Cyprus with a strong central government. But the balance may shift to friendlier attitude towards Turkish side in line with economic and security ties with Turkey. The absorption of Cyprus by a global and supra-national unity (i.e., by EU) would be more acceptable for the global powers that try to weaken national identities and national division in order to restructure the world as a global village. Globalisation negatively affected the Cyprus problem, because it polarised the Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots in the Island. With globalisation, the different interests of the two societies became apparent and they diverged from each other rather than converged. Also, the interests of some global powers are in the division of the Island into two states. However, to some, though globalisation is a process of integration, it has also created disintegration or fragmentation especially after the Cold War. Cyprus is influenced by both, but more by agents of integration. It is obvious that Cyprus is part of a bigger integration project which is the EU. The US is a crucial actor in Cyprus. Cyprus is part of the Greater Middle East Project of the US; she is paying special attention to the Cyprus problem and involving the UN to solve the problem. However, the forces of globalisation turned the Cyprus problem into more of an international problem. By accepting half of the island as a member, the EU internalised the Cyprus problem. This made the Cyprus problem more urgent. Expert opinions survey confirms that globalisation is affecting Cyprus positively in some ways and negatively in others. Turkey’s relation with EU is a part of the globalisation process and it is considered as positive a development as the enlargement of the EU. However, different interests are clashing in Cyprus and this is the negative side of globalisation. 4.2.2. Looking into the unknown The interviewed experts do not have the same perceptual trajectory while analysing the future of North Cyprus. Two scenarios are revealed: the optimistic scenario is North Cyprus becoming part of the EU integration process in a bi-zonal, bi-communal, federal structure. The pessimistic scenario is the German integration model where North is sucked and controlled by the Greek Cypriot Government. An expert observes that the US prefers a unitary state in Cyprus and that is why she supported the Annan Plan all the time, and that she is preparing a solution where TRNC is dissolved. As some experts reflect, the solution should be based on two sovereign and politically equal states with different religions and languages. The Czheck and Slovak model where two states are separated and joined under the umbrella of the EU is the best formula for Cyprus. If the Green Line between Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots is transformed into an international border, Turkish Cypriots will not be worrying about Greek Cypriot aggression once again and Greek Cypriots will not fear that Turkey will get the whole Island. This way, the two sides in Cyprus will be neighbours cooperating in the EU. This seems to be the most realistic plan, and the developments in Cyprus in the last 40 years are heading to this direction. In the future, the existence of ‘‘two states’’ in Cyprus looks most

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probable. The antagonistic and intransigent position of the Greek Cypriots against Turkey and Turkish Cypriots is not going to change. This fact will fortify the existence and continuation of the TRNC. However, some can foresee the future of Cyprus as a United Cyprus Republic as envisaged in the Annan Plan within an enlarged EU. This may take another 10 or 15 years. Everything depends on Turkey’s relations with the EU. The eventual membership of Turkey in the EU will make the future quite promising. If things proceed smoothly, the Cyprus problem will be solved on the basis of a UN Plan (it may be a new version of Annan Plan or a new plan) within a few years under the EU’s supervision. But in the case of confrontation in Turkish-EU relations, it will turn into a long-lasting problem. Another prediction for the future, though seems to be rather uncanny, is that the Island will probably be divided not between Turks and Greeks, but between the EU (South) and the US (North). Is there any other model that can be a viable alternative to ensure the peace and prosperity of North Cyprus? In the following section, we will take a brief look at the alternative models and consider which one of them can really be a feasible and relevant one in the future. 5. Alternative models for North Cyprus 5.1. Federation Several models over the years have been proposed and some have been tried by politicians and analysts to solve the Cyprus problem. One of the first models tried was a unitary state established in 1960 and it did not work. Under the Annan Plan, a federal structure in which both the states will co-exist side by side was proposed. But under such a scheme, the North will want to be an equal partner. It is the persistent fear of the North that because of its smaller size and inferior financial position, it will not have an equal bargaining power in the matter of resources allocation, and economic and social development. But Turkish Cypriot demands about equality in a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation has been rejected by the South which is not prepared to take it as an equal partner and as an independent sovereign power with equal say in all matters. As the Italian Foreign Minister, Lamberto Dini pointed out, it has to be recognised that there are two republics in Cyprus, two governments and two independent entities, and that Nicosia does not represent Cyprus in its entirety [21]. The idea of a viable federal structure for Cyprus was the brain-child of the UN which wanted to solve in its own way a bilateral ethnic conflict in the Island. The recently proposed much-vaunted Annan plan that sought to unify the two states of Cyprus could not materialise. The rejection of the model by the South is based on two proximate reasons: first, unification will mean side by side existence of two unequal and unwilling partners, and the second, it will involve the sacrifice of resources for the convergence of the two economies. The convergence which will initially benefit the North will imply corresponding loss for the South. As a matter of fact, given the political matrix, unification of the two does not seem to be a once-for-all solution. The two states have very different cultures, languages, religions and resource endowments. Moreover, if history is any indication, with the suspicion and hatred in the minds of these two communities, there cannot be any viable unification between these two states. It is not in any way like the cases

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of the Irish and the German unifications. In these two cases, cultural and linguistic homogeneity went a long way in making them very close even before their actual political unification. In the case of Cyprus, any attempt to have unification of the two belligerent states would indeed be a futile exercise after the entry of the South into the EU. Any attempt for the proposed unification now based on equal rights, freedom and sovereignty of the two communities would be doubly vetoed by Greece and Greek Cypriots. The Greek side does not want from the beginning any partnership in power-sharing based on political equality. It does not recognise the constitutional rights given to the Turkish Cypriots in the past by various agreements [22]. So, the desire for a federal framework with the Greek side, which was the stated original objective of declaration of the TRNC [23], will have to be completely abandoned in future. The failure of the proposed federal model has come from the opposing notions and perspectives of the two communities in the Island of Cyprus. Whilst the Greek side demands a single sovereignty to be rested alone with it, indivisibility of the Island, single citizenship and a unitary system of government and therefore unequal power-relations, the Turkish side has been insisting on the creation of a bi-communal and bi-zonal federation which officially recognises its equality of status in all matters [24]. The Turkish side flatly disagrees with the inferior status and unequal power relations in any political settlement [25]. Thus, the future of North Cyprus would not lie in a solution that is based on the model of a federation. Moreover, the interests of US, England, Turkey, and Russia dictate against a solution based on federation. Greek Cypriots are not very eager for a federation, they prefer a unitary state solution, but it looks too remote after these years. 5.2. Confederation In the event of a failure of the plan for unification under a federal structure, the idea of confederation is gradually gaining ground. The plan was first suggested by Richard Holbroke, the special Envoy of the American Administration for Cyprus as early as in 1998; but it goes against the UN proposal for a federal structure. Confederation is based on an agreement between the two states and not on any constitution [26]. It is a much simpler and easier model for implementation if the involved parties agree on certain fundamental parameters of a confederation. The most critical basic parameter is the formal recognition of two states. North Cyprus is now trying to make confederation the future model for the solution of its problem. It must, however, remember that if a confederation is formed without recognising the basics of the model, it will not last long [27]. The practical problem for the confederation of these two states lies mainly in the fact that the South is not at all ready to accept the North as an independent sovereign entity. The so-called Republic of Cyprus claims that Turkey has invaded and captured the North which is an integral part of the South. Interestingly, in all talks about the settlement and negotiations, the Greek side calls itself a state, and they address the North Cyprus as the community, i.e., Turkish Cypriot community. This uncompromising attitude is the fundamental obstacle in the way of solving the Cyprus debacle; and if this continues to persist, the confederation model will not be of any help in future to solve the problem of North Cyprus in a way it is anticipated. It is a fact that North Cyprus has always demonstrated a compromising attitude. For instance, even after the formation of an independent state in 1983, after the failure of the talk on the possibility of a federation, its constitution has explicitly recognised the genuine

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intention for a federal settlement. Now, the ball is in the court of the Greek side to settle the matter either through a federal structure or through a confederation. But given the political and socio-cultural milieu of these two states, the confederation model, if feasible, would perhaps be the most desirable model in future for both the states. However, the Greek side may not be interested in all these models because, first, that involves an implicit recognition of the equality and sovereignty of the TRNC, and the second, after its entry into the EU, it will perhaps think that ENOSIS through the backdoor is already a reality [28]. Greek Cypriots will never accept a confederation, because this will be strengthening the political position of the Turkish Cypriot state. 5.3. Two-states theory Given the fact that the TRNC is alive and well, making sustained economic progress and has all the characteristics of a viable small economy, the unitary state plan by the South will be a total failure in the future. What then appears a more realistic model in the future for the peace and prosperity of the Island is to have two independent states side by side as they have been existing since 1974, with an international border between them. This line of thinking is becoming popular among foreign experts and Greek citizens as the most desirable future for both the states of Cyprus [29]. Guney suggests that ‘‘the Greek Cypriot rejection of the Annan Plan could lead to a permanent partition of the Island’’ [30]. The impending problem for any future settlement between the two states if any one of these models is finally adopted would be many other associated issues, the settlement of which will not be an easy task. What needs to be urgently done now is to work out an arrangement which will enable the two states to resolve certain basic matters, especially the final settlement of reciprocal property claims, security issues and the delineation of borders [31]. When the North has a well-demarcated boundary, there should be no need for the Trojan horses. The question of demarcation of boundaries does of course involve the issue of property rights and the modes of compensation for the occupied properties in both the parts of the Island. The issues may be settled amicably, failing which there may be the need for referring the matter to the International Court of Justice. 5.4. Quo Vadis North Cyprus now? To ameliorate the situation for the time being, North Cyprus may well have joint development plans with Turkey. Significant progress has already been made in this direction in the form of economic cooperation between the TRNC and Turkey. Turkey has always been the major export destination of North Cyprus, and it is going to be more important in future. These two countries may do well in having a free flow of capital and the establishment of some joint enterprises in North Cyprus. For many obvious reasons, in particular, as the military base, North Cyprus seems to be more important for Turkey [32]. In fact, in the last few years of the 1990s, quite a few agreements concerning economic (including trade) and financial cooperation and partial cooperation on security, defence and policy matters between Turkey and TRNC were signed by the two states [33]. The Special Partnership agreement between Turkey and the TRNC may be a safeguard against political and economic uncertainties of the later country. One arrangement could be: Turkey and the North cooperating at the same speed and pace as the South with the EU. Cooperation with Turkey will not mean the loss of independence of North Cyprus in its

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attempt to achieve complete politico-economic sovereignty. Economic cooperation can continue side by side with the political independence of North Cyprus, like India and Bangladesh at the time of the latter’s independence. 6. Concluding observations After a long and arduous struggle for survival, Turkish Cypriots are now trying to legitimise their political, economic and cultural identity. In the 1960s, the unitary state model did not work. The federal state model proposed by the Annan Plan was rejected by the Greek Cypriots, because they did not want to have Turkish Cypriots as equal partners. Confederation model proposed by Holbroke was discarded before coming to the table. Now when the region is reshaping and the emergence of North Cyprus as a small independent state is slotting well with the plans of the US, Turkey, Russia and Britain, it looks most probable that the constellation of forces will carry North Cyprus to a full statehood. However, the future of North Cyprus is punctuated by many complexifying forces, but indeed the balances of powers indicate that a status quo ante will be maintained for quite some time in the near future, and slowly North Cyprus will get its place in the international arena. The good news is that only recently some of the Muslim countries are contemplating recognising North Cyprus. Azerbaijan and the Islamic Conference Organisation have already decided to recognise it (2004). The Muslim countries of Africa, and some of them from the Middle East and Eastern Europe, Pakistan and Bangladesh who send their children to study in the five universities of North Cyprus have implicitly recognised it as an independent country. The Association of European Universities which has recently recognised the Eastern Mediterranean University of North Cyprus makes an indirect recognition of the state of North Cyprus. There is a dire need on the part of the authorities of the TRNC to present their case to the international community which still does not have the full knowledge of the Cyprus problem. The misunderstanding that Turkey has invaded the Northern part of Cyprus needs to be cleared up in international fora and media. As a first step towards that direction, it is indeed imperative to present its case to the Muslim world, in particular, to those countries which are sending their children for education to North Cyprus. The recognition by the Muslim countries will indeed go a long way to strengthen the case of North Cyprus. Acknowledgements We would like to thank Assistant Professor, Dr. Fatma Guven of the Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus, for a very helpful discussion and candid suggestions on an earlier draft of this paper. References [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6]

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