Human wildlife conflict involving large carnivores in Qilianshan, China and the minimal paw-print of snow leopards

Biological Conservation 187 (2015) 1–9

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Human wildlife conflict involving large carnivores in Qilianshan, China and the minimal paw-print of snow leopards Justine Alexander a, Pengju Chen a, Peter Damerell a, Wang Youkui b, Joelene Hughes c, Kun Shi a,⇑, Philip Riordan a,c,d a

The Wildlife Institute, School of Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Tsinghua-east 35, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China Administrative Bureau of Qilianshan National Nature Reserve, Gansu 734000, China Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, The Tinbergen Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK d Wildlife Without Borders UK, Tubney House, Oxfordshire OX13 5QL, UK b c

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history: Received 17 October 2014 Received in revised form 10 January 2015 Accepted 1 April 2015

Keywords: Snow leopard Carnivores Livestock depredation Social attitudes China

a b s t r a c t In this paper, we assess local perceptions towards snow leopards in North West China using a framework depicting key conflict domains. We describe the perceived threats posed to humans by the snow leopard and set them within beliefs and attitudes towards other species within the large carnivore assemblage in this region. Surveys were conducted in seven villages within Qilianshan National Nature Reserve, Gansu Province, China, to document reports of snow leopard (Panthera uncia), grey wolf (Canis lupus), Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and brown bear (Ursus arctos) depredation of livestock, and local attitudes towards each species. Questionnaire-based interviews were held with 60 households and 49 livestock herders. Herding of yak, sheep and goats was found to be a common livelihood activity among households in all villages. Herders reported losing livestock to all four carnivore species. Herders reported that depredation was the most common event affecting livestock, compared with natural disasters or disease, and represented a total loss of 3.6% of the livestock population during the previous year. Most (53%) depredation losses were attributed to lynx, while snow leopards were held responsible for only 7.8% of depredation losses. The reported impact of snow leopards on herding activities was relatively small and the majority of both householders and herders expressed positive attitudes towards them and supported measures for their protection. Households and herders held negative attitudes towards lynx, wolves and bears, however, most likely due to their perceived threat to livestock and humans. Understanding community perceptions of threats posed by wildlife is vital for gaining community support for, and engagement in, conflict mitigation. Ó 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction In China, human-wildlife conflicts (HWC) are thought to be escalating due to the continued increase in the country’s human population, the shrinking and transformation of wild habitats and a reduction in wild prey (Pettigrew et al., 2012). Few studies however have examined conflicts between humans and carnivores in the country or considered the role of local beliefs and attitudes in exacerbating (or mitigating) such conflicts (Kang and Zhao, 2011; Li et al., 2013b; Liu et al., 2011). ⇑ Corresponding author at: Mailbox No. 159, College of Nature Conservation, C/O Dr. SHI Kun, Director of the Wildlife Institute, Beijing Forestry University, 35, Tsinghua-East Road, Beijing 100083, China. E-mail address: [email protected] (K. Shi). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2015.04.002 0006-3207/Ó 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HWCs, defined here as those occurring when an action by either humans or wildlife has an adverse effect on the other (Redpath et al., 2013), often occur when human activities and wildlife overlap spatially or compete for resources (Pettigrew et al., 2012). Certain carnivore species pose a direct threat to livestock holdings, which form an integral part of local pastoral and agricultural economies (Ogada et al., 2003; Oli et al., 1994; Wang and Macdonald, 2006). Encounters between carnivores and domestic livestock tend to be common in areas where humans live close to, or have encroached upon formally protected areas (Mishra, 1997). The threat posed by depredation events to local livelihoods complicates conservation efforts (Bagchi and Mishra, 2006; Conforti and de Azevedo, 2003; Wang and Macdonald, 2006). Tensions can arise between local communities and wildlife managers, and community members may resort to measures to reduce

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J. Alexander et al. / Biological Conservation 187 (2015) 1–9

the presence of predators, including retaliatory killings of carnivores (Conforti and de Azevedo, 2003; Mishra, 1997). Local perceptions of the impact that carnivores have on human lives and livelihood resources are important drivers of HWCs (Kellert et al., 1996). These perceptions are influenced by multiple factors including the physical and behavioural characteristics of a species, knowledge and understanding of a species and experiences of risky events attributed to wildlife (Dickman, 2010; Kellert et al., 1996). They are also shaped by beliefs and attitudes towards wildlife that have deep social and cultural roots (Kellert et al., 1996). Although perceptions underpinning HWCs are complex and tend to be context-specific, it is helpful to deconstruct them along several dimensions (Redpath et al., 2013). Here we identified, on the basis of previous HWC research, 4 domains related to threats and costs to humans: fear of carnivores; perceived risk posed to humans; perceived risk posed to livestock; attitudes towards carnivore control; and two domains related to attitudes and beliefs: willingness to conserve the species; and beliefs on the role the species plays in the wider environment/ ecosystem. In a given context, perceptions of wildlife species, which form the basis for potential persecution or protection of a given species, are shaped by the interactions between these domains. Snow leopards (Panthera uncia; listed as Endangered by IUCN (Jackson et al., 2008) span 12 countries, interacting with people from diverse cultures and with rapidly changing perspectives towards wildlife (Snow Leopard Network, 2014). Snow leopards are responsible for livestock losses, to varying degrees across China (Li et al., 2013a; Riordan and Shi, 2010) and retaliatory killings are considered to pose a significant risk to the snow leopard population within China and beyond (McCarthy and Chapron, 2003; Riordan and Shi, 2010). While some communities may report high levels of depredation and hold strong negative attitudes towards snow leopards (i.e. Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal (Aryal et al., 2014)), other areas may be more tolerant towards the species as a result of other context-specific factors (Li et al., 2013a). Their role in damaging livestock may not always be the dominant factor for determining attitudes towards them (Kansky et al., 2014). Identifying key factors that explain attitudes towards snow leopards within their specific contexts is essential for prioritizing conservation initiatives. In this study conducted in North West China, we sought to assess local perceptions towards snow leopards within the framework we developed depicting key conflict domains. We determined the perceived threats posed to humans by the snow leopard and set them within beliefs and attitudes towards other species within the large carnivore assemblage in this region: grey wolf (Canis lupus), Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations. We focused on the perceived role of snow leopards in livestock depredation. On the basis of the findings, we make recommendations on how future livestock losses and conflicts can be minimized in this part of the snow leopard range.

2. Methods 2.1. Study site The assessment was carried out in the Northern region of QNNR, known as the QiFeng, located in Gansu Province, China (Fig. 1). The QNNR, established in 1988 by China’s State Council in order to protect forest and wildlife, is located in the North Eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (Liu, 1996) and has a mountainous topography with elevation ranges between 1000 m and 5800 m and a total area of 26,530 km2 (Yang and Wang, 2009).

The snow leopard, brown bear, lynx, and grey wolf are the predominant large mammalian predators occurring in the area. Blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) and white-lipped deer (Przewalskium albirostris) are the most common wild ungulates. Among these, the snow leopard and white-lipped deer are each protected as a 1st Class State Protected species within China and the brown bear, lynx, blue sheep are listed as endangered, protected as a 2nd Class State Protected Species. The study area supports many grazing areas for goat, sheep and yak on a seasonal basis. In 2011, local government policy changes, under China’s central government policy for ecological restoration ‘‘Returning Farmland to Forest’’ and ‘‘The Grazing Withdrawal’’, placed limits on herding activity in the mountain areas of the region, with the aim of regenerating overgrazed alpine vegetation. Accordingly, livestock grazing has been banned in specific zones, until 2015 at the earliest. 2.2. Data collection Social research methods were utilized. Key informant interviews were held with QNNR reserve staff to identify target communities where herding was carried out as a livelihood activity. Detailed questionnaire-based surveys were then carried out within these target communities, to assess livestock depredation rates and community attitudes towards carnivores within QNNR. Data was gathered in seven villages: Qi Lin, Guan Shan, Hong Shan, Qing Ke Di, Ci Yao Gou, Gan Ba Gou and Huang Cao Ba (Fig. 1). Two of the 7 villages, Hong Shan and Gan Ba Kou, are outside the area covered by the herding restriction policy. Interviews were undertaken from June 2013 to July 2013. Two survey approaches were used: the first was applied to an adult member of all occupied households (n = 60) across study villages in order to assess livelihood activities and explore conflict domains surrounding snow leopards and other carnivores; the second was aimed at herders (n = 49) to explore herding practices in more detail. Herders were defined as individuals who reported herding as a major livelihood activity. A snowball sampling strategy (Goodman, 1961) was used to maximize the number of herders surveyed within study villages. Before interviews began, respondents were asked for consent following an explanation of the research objectives, assurance that all personal information would remain strictly confidential and an explanation that they could decline to answer any questions or stop the interview at any time. All interviews were conducted in Mandarin. The first questionnaire asked people to list the livelihood activities of each adult household member and to rank these activities according to household income sources. Attitudes towards wildlife were explored by partitioning perceptions into six pertinent dimensions, framed as a series of questions on the dangers posed by the listed species (snow leopard, grey wolf, brown bear, Eurasian lynx, blue sheep) to humans and livestock. Recognition of all species was verified with the use of photographs. The questions sought to elucidate: Fears (the species prevents them from venturing into the mountains); Human Risk (the species is dangerous to humans); Livestock Risk (the species is dangerous to livestock); Control (there should be fewer of the species); Conservation (the species should be protected); and Ecosystems (the species is a sign of healthy environment). Answers to questions were categorized into a Likert scale (‘‘highly agree’’ = 2, ‘‘agree’’ = 1, ‘‘neutral’’ = 0, ‘‘disagree’’ = 1, ‘‘highly disagree’’ = 2) (Zimmermann et al., 2005). The second questionnaire targeting herders also explored attitudes towards wildlife using the conflict domain framework. It also sought further details about the socio-economic profile of herders and herding practices. Questions were posed about age, education

J. Alexander et al. / Biological Conservation 187 (2015) 1–9

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Fig. 1. Study site. QNNR lies in the central part of Gansu Province, bordering Qinghai Province, in China. It is located in the northern part of Tibetan-Qinghai Plateau.

level, number of years lived in the village, number of years actively herding, number of each livestock number owned, changes in livestock numbers over the last 10 years and grazing location for each livestock type (high/low mountain pastures or valley). Herders were asked to list all other livelihood activities carried out and then rank these activities according to income sources. They were also asked to comment on livestock and human population status and trends. Finally herders were asked about livestock losses related to natural disasters (avalanches or floods), disease and depredation. Given that long recall periods may lead to recall bias (Bernard, 2000), details were sought on livestock loss in the last 12 months only. Respondents were asked to provide the following information for each livestock loss event: the month the loss occurred, how many individuals of each livestock species died, the event responsible, and how many of each species loss were juveniles or adults. Herders were also asked about the grazing conditions under which the loss occurred, whether any compensation was paid for the lost livestock, and if so, the amount that was received per individual for each species. Finally herders were asked if they could list and rank three suggestions on how to minimize depredation events. The final part of the questionnaire explored herders’ direct and indirect (through signs) detection of carnivores within the areas of QNNR surveyed during the previous 12 months. 2.3. Data analysis Differences in the frequency of livelihood activities, reported change in human population, livestock numbers and reported causes of livestock losses between sampled villages were assessed using Chi-squared tests. The proportion of households and herders with positive responses for the five species were also compared using chi squared tests. An Information Theoretic (IT) approach (Burnham and Anderson, 2002) was used to analyze the responses from the conflict domain framework of herders using a model selection from a series of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM). Ordinal attitudinal scores from each question were entered as response variables, factoring species (Breslow and Clayton, 1993), with respondent identity included as a fixed effect in each model. Herder characteristics (gender, age, education level and village) were then considered as variables affecting the respective conflict domain, with respondent identity entered as fixed effects in each

model. Predictor variables were checked for multi-collinearity at the herder respondent level using a Spearman rank correlation. The IT approach was used to explore the most appropriate from a suite of models, drawing on the fewest parameters considered necessary (Johnson and Omland, 2004). GLMMs were used to contrast the effects of predictor variables and interactions between variables. All combinations of predictor variables produced 24 separate models. Akaike’s Information Criterion (AICc), corrected for small sample sizes, was used to rank models. Eleven candidate models were retained for further analysis, with minimum AICc weightings of 0.01. Model averaging was used, calculated a weighted average of parameter estimates, as no single model had an AICc weight was greater than 0.9 (Johnson and Omland, 2004). The relative importance of different parameters was calculated by summing AICc weights. Statistical tests were conducted using R (Package AICcmodavg) 2013 version 2.15.3 (Mazerolle, 2014; R Development Core Team, 2013). 3. Results 3.1. Household income Twenty-eight out of 60 households (47%) reported having more than one income source. Herding was the most common livelihood activity among households in all villages, involving 92% of all households. The second most common livelihood activity was arable farming, which involved 48% of all households. Migrant wagelabour, involving travel to a nearby city for various occupations, was reported in 22% of all households. Other self-reported livelihood activities included: doctor, teacher, village officer, secretary, oil worker, government worker and veterinarian. The frequencies of livelihood activities were not significantly different between villages (Chi-squared = 29.31, df = 21, p = 0.106). 3.2. Herding practices A total of 49 herders were interviewed in the seven villages. A broad range of livestock was kept in the region within and surrounding QNNR. The majority of herders (94%) reported herding small stock (goats or sheep), 22% herded yak, 24% owned horses and 10% owned mules and donkeys. Household herd sizes ranged from 15 to 530 for small stock and 20 to 140 for yaks, with a

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J. Alexander et al. / Biological Conservation 187 (2015) 1–9

median of 175 for small stock and 50 for yak. Herders only kept one or two horses, mules or donkeys. Livestock numbers varied by village, with Guan Shan having the greatest abundance of livestock per herder (Table 1). Herding patterns were similar across all villages, but varied according the type of livestock. During the summer months (May–October) all livestock tend to be herded in high, mountainous areas. In other months small stock are either sold or kept in corrals within the villages, while yak remain in the high mountains or are moved to lower elevation areas. In key informant interviews and observations we noted that small stock were for the most part kept in corrals at night and were herded during the day. Management practices for yak on the other hand were less controlled and they tended to be left in the mountains unattended for weeks at a time. Reported changes in livestock numbers show mixed patterns. Across all seven villages, 28 (57%) of herders reported decreases in the last 10 years. Herders associated the decrease with degradation of vegetation in mountain pastures and restrictions on grazing. However, our data showed no difference in the reported change of livestock numbers (Chi-squared = 2.75, df = 2, p = 0.25) or number of households engaged in herding (Chi-squared = 1.41, df = 2, p = 0.49) between villages where the policy restricting grazing was present or not. In contrast, 37% of herders reported an increase in livestock, attributing it to herders’ rising incomes associated with economic development in the area. Eighty-five percent of herders from across all surveyed villages predicted that the number of livestock would decrease in the next five years within areas surrounding their villages. This was attributed to the grazing ban even in villages where the ban was not being implemented, with people selling livestock rather than

altering their summer grazing ranges to areas outside the ban zones. The five herders who predicted an increase in livestock numbers again attributed it to rising incomes in herding due to economic growth. 3.3. Livestock mortality Across all villages, herders reported a total of 1289 livestock losses (115 yaks and 1174 small stock between June 2012 and May 2013, representing 12.5% of the livestock population. These losses were attributed to natural disasters, disease or depredation, in order of frequency (Table 2). Whilst natural disasters were responsible for the greatest number of lost livestock, more (76%) interviewed herders suffered livestock losses from depredation, while 65% and 63% suffered livestock losses from disease or disasters respectively. Twenty percent of herders reported no losses. Herders reported losing livestock to all four carnivore species, with depredation mainly attributed to lynx (53%) while snow leopards were reported to be responsible for only 7.8% of the total livestock predated during the past year. Depredation affected more herders than individual households than any other cause of livestock mortality, and represented a loss of 3.6% of the total livestock population (Table 3). Snow leopards were reported to have killed a similar number of yaks and small stock. All the 15 yaks reportedly killed by snow leopards were juveniles. By contrast Eurasian lynx and grey wolves were reported to have killed more small stock than yaks. Eurasian lynx were only reported to have killed one juvenile yak. There was no significant difference in cause of loss between villages (Chi-squared = 6.04, df = 10, p = 0.812). There was however a difference between villages in the carnivore species reported to be

Table 1 Sampled Characteristics of Surveyed Households and Herders. Village

Number of households surveyed

Number of herders surveyed

Qi Lin Guan Shan Hong Shan Qing Ke Di Ci Yao Kou Gan Ba Kou Hung Cao Ba Total

8 1 20 11 5 8 7 60

3 4 13 9 7 10 3 49

Total number if livestock owned by herders

Mean number of livestock per herder (SD)

Yak

Small stock

Yak

Small stock

110 0 141 140 155 200 0 746

290 1570 2135 1270 1315 1965 957 9502

110.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) 47.0 (24.6) 140.0 (0.0) 77.5 (74.2) 50.0 (42.4) 0.0 (0.0) 15.2 (35.7)

145.0 392.5 164.2 158.8 187.9 218.3 319.0 193.9

(21.2) (122.0) (76.1) (76.3) (138.2) (157.4) (53.5) (131.0)

Table 2 Reported livestock losses in all villages (n = 49). Cause

Number of herder households

Percentage of total herder respondents (%)

Number of events reported

Livestock losses

Yak

Small stock

Total livestock loss

Percentage of total livestock loss responsibility (%)

416 499 29 199 82 20 44 374 1289

32 39 2 15 6 2 3 29 100

Horse

Adult Juvenile Adult Juvenile Adult Juvenile Disease Disaster Depredation Snow leopard Eurasian Lynx Grey wolf Brown bear Unknown Total Total

32 31 5 25 12 1 4 37

65 63 10 51 24 2 8 76

35 36 5 34 14 1 5 59 130

6 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 31

11 21 15 1 18 0 18 52 84

175 245 12 154 40 12 13 231 651

224 208 2 44 24 8 13 91 523

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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J. Alexander et al. / Biological Conservation 187 (2015) 1–9

Table 3 Reported depredation of livestock in relation to livestock abundance in previous year. Cause

Species

Proportion of total yak reported killed (%)

Proportion of total small stock reported killed (%)

Proportion of total livestock reported killed (%)

Depredation

Snow leopard Eurasian Lynx Grey wolf Brown bear Unknown Total

2.01 0.13 2.41 0.00 2.41 6.97 2.28 6.17 22.39

0.15 2.08 0.67 0.21 0.27 3.39 4.20 4.77 15.74

0.28 1.94 0.80 0.19 0.43 3.64 4.05 4.86 12.55

Disease Disaster Total

responsible for depredation events (Chi-squared = 25.90, df = 15, p = 0.04). Seven villages reported losses due to lynx, five villages reported losses due to grey wolves (all except Qi Lin and Ci Yao Kou) and three villages reported a loss event ascribed to snow leopards (Qi Lin, Guan Shan and Gan Ba Kou). The villages Hong Shan and Gan Ba Kou in particular attributed a much larger proportion of depredation events to lynx (11 and 9 depredation events for Hong Shan and Gan Ba Kou respectively compared with fewer than 4 depredation events reported by other villages). Nearly all depredation events were reported to have occurred when livestock were grazing (98%), with only one event reported to have occurred at a corral. The majority of depredation events also occurred when livestock were guarded (68%), and few (23%) occurred among unguarded livestock. Nine percent took place under unknown conditions. Respondents described a wide range of methods for guarding livestock including directly and continuously watching over livestock or at periodic intervals with the presence of a livestock-guarding dog kept nearby. The majority (61%) of livestock loss by snow leopard, Eurasian lynx and grey wolf occurred during the summer months, May to August, with (32%) of losses in the autumn (October to December). Only one of the 49 surveyed herders reported receiving compensation from the local government for their loss of livestock. Measures that herders proposed to prevent future depredation of livestock included: using a physical barrier, such as simple wire fencing, to protect livestock (14%); removing predators by trapping (12%); poisoning (10%); shooting (8%); doing nothing, banning grazing or firecrackers (each at 6%); increasing the ungulate population (4%); and translocating predators (2%). Reponses were not given by 31% of herders. Within the last 12 months, herders reported that they had seen or detected five carnivore species: snow leopard, Eurasian lynx, grey wolf, fox (Vulpes sp.) and brown bear. Lynx were identified

most frequently, directly by sight on 13 occasions and indirectly through signs on 38 occasions. Grey wolves were also detected frequently (directly on 9 occasions and indirectly on 30 occasions). Snow leopards were seen on 3 occasions and their signs on 14 occasions. Eurasian Brown bears were the carnivore least frequently identified, a direct sighting reported only once, in the area around Huan Cao Ba. It should also be noted that dhole (Cuon alpinus) are known to occur in this region (Riordan and Shi, unpublished data), but were not reported in survey responses here. 3.4. Conflict domains: household and herder attitudes towards wildlife Responses to questions surrounding the conflict domain of attitudes towards wildlife elicited different responses among herder and household-level respondents (Mann–Whitney Test: Fear: W = 1274, P < 0.01; Human Risk: W = 2310, P < 0.01; Livestock Risk: W = 1046.0, P < 0.01 Control: W = 2531.0, P < 0.01; Conservation: W = 1780.5, P < 0.01; Ecosystems: W = 5422.0, P < 0.01). The human risk conflict domain showed differences in attitudes between species (Table 4). The majority of householders considered all of the carnivore species represented a threat for humans, while the majority of herders felt that only bears carried such a threat. Amongst herders, the human risk conflict domain concentrated on bears, with general agreement with the statement that bears are dangerous to humans (GLMM: t4,224 = 8.23, P < 0.01). Herders, however, did not consider other carnivore species to be dangerous (Lynx: t4,224 = 1.87, P < 0.01; Wolf: t4,224 = 1.48, P < 0.01: Snow leopard: t4,224 = 1.47, P < 0.01). Within the livestock risk domain, herders considered three carnivore species dangerous (GLMM: bear, t4,226 = 7.85, P < 0.01; lynx, t4,226 = 2.84, P < 0.01; wolf, t4,226 = 2.73, P < 0.01,) while they did not feel the same about snow leopards (Snow leopard: t4,226 = 0.81, P = 0.42). With respect to the control domain, herders

Table 4 The conflict domain distribution of attitudes towards the 5 species from householder (n = 60) and herder (n = 49) surveys. D = Disagreed or strongly disagreed, N = Neutral and A = Agreed or Strongly Agreed, NA = No Answer. Conflict Domains

Respondent

Snow leopard D

N

Grey wolf

A

NA

D

N

Eurasian lynx A

NA

D

N

Brown bear

A

NA

D

N

Blue sheep A

NA

D

N

A

NA

Fear

Herders Household

63 72

6 5

29 23

2 0

63 72

6 7

27 20

4 1

78 83

6 5

14 12

2 0

29 38

2 5

63 52

6 5

94 93

4 5

0 2

2 0

Human risk

Herders Household

57 67

6 2

31 27

6 4

67 73

4 2

25 23

4 2

78 90

8 3

8 7

6 0

10 20

6 8

71 63

13 9

90 95

2 0

4 5

4 0

Livestock risk

Herders Household

12 10

0 2

84 87

4 1

4 3

0 0

94 97

2 0

4 2

0 0

94 98

2 0

10 8

6 7

65 65

19 20

65 70

6 7

27 23

2 0

Control

Herders Household

33 42

20 23

45 35

2 0

14 20

12 5

71 75

3 0

6 13

6 2

86 85

2 0

16 25

29 28

41 32

14 15

35 32

16 20

47 48

2 0

Conservation

Herders Household

25 23

6 5

67 72

2 0

61 63

14 8

22 28

3 1

65 67

16 8

16 25

3 0

37 30

12 17

41 43

10 10

29 35

14 8

55 57

2 0

Ecosystem

Herders Household

25 27

12 2

61 67

2 4

49 50

10 15

39 35

2 0

61 53

8 15

29 30

2 2

31 23

12 22

45 38

12 17

31 35

16 15

51 50

2 0

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J. Alexander et al. / Biological Conservation 187 (2015) 1–9

Table 5 GLMM of factors affecting attitudes towards wildlife species. Rankings are based on Akaike’s information criteria and model weights. Also includes relative parameter importance with summed AICc weights for models with AICc weights > 0.01. Where a model contains or does not contain a parameter it is indicated with a 1 or a 0 respectively. Model

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Delta

Attitude  Gender Attitude  Village Attitude  Village + Gender Attitude  Education Attitude  Village ⁄ Gender Attitude  Gender + Education Attitude  Village + Education Attitude  Age Attitude  Gender + Age Attitude  Village + Age Attitude  Village + Gender + Education Attitude  Gender ⁄ Education Attitude  Village + Gender + Age Attitude  Gender ⁄ Age Attitude  Age + Education Attitude  Gender + Age + Education Attitude  Village + Gender + Education + Age Attitude  Village ⁄ Education Attitude  Village ⁄ Age Attitude  Village ⁄ Gender ⁄ Age Attitude  Village ⁄ Gender ⁄ Education Attitude  Age ⁄ Education Attitude  Gender ⁄ Age ⁄ Education Attitude  Village ⁄ Gender ⁄ Education ⁄ Age

Parameter

K

AIC

AICc

AICcWt Cum.Wt

Gender Village Education Age

3 8 9 5 13 6 11 6 7 12 12 9 13 10 9 10 16 20 22 28 28 13 19 40

4816.67 4817.17 4818.92 4819.84 4820.02 4821.25 4822.24 4822.47 4822.67 4823.94 4824.1 4825.29 4825.31 4825.36 4827.23 4827.92 4831.10 4832.25 4833.00 4833.61 4834.03 4834.75 4838.29 4843.38

0 0.51 2.25 3.17 3.36 4.58 5.58 5.80 6.00 7.27 7.43 8.62 8.64 8.69 10.56 11.25 14.43 15.58 16.33 16.95 17.36 18.09 21.62 26.71

0.35 0.27 0.11 0.07 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 – – – – – – – – – – – –

0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 – – – – – – – – – – – –

0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 – – – – – – – – – – – –

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 – – – – – – – – – – – –

0.6

0.49

0.12

0.05

harboured negative attitudes towards lynx, wolves and bears, agreeing that there should be less of all three species in the area (lynx, t4,229 = 4.35, P < 0.01; wolf, t4,229 = 2.79, P < 0.01; bears, t4,229 = 2.73, P < 0.01). As for Conservation and Ecosystem domains, herders did not believe that lynx and wolves should be protected (lynx, t4,231 = 3.73, P < 0.01; wolf, t4,231 = -2.59, P < 0.05) and did not consider lynx a sign of a healthy environment (t4,230 = 2.95, P < 0.01). By contrast, herders had positive attitudes towards snow leopards, agreeing that they should be protected (t4,231 = 2.20, P < 0.05). Finally, within the fear domain, herders indicated that lynx and wolves did not prevent them from venturing into the mountains (lynx, t4,232 = 6.64, P < 0.01; wolf, t4,232 = 5.00, P < 0.01), while bears did (t4,232 = 4.67, P < 0.01).

3.5. Socio-demographic factors influencing people’s attitudes towards wildlife Gender was found to influence the combination of conflict domain attitudes, with female herders respondents reporting more negative views towards wildlife. Gender was found to have the greatest relative importance within models (Table 5; 0.6), appearing in 6 of the 11 candidate models. The model averaged parameter estimates for gender was similar to the maximum likelihood estimate for the best performing model (Table 6). None of the other factors examined had a larger influence on attitudes towards Table 6 Model averaged estimates for each parameter. These estimates were obtained using candidate models with AICc weights > 0.01. Included also are the estimates corresponding to the best AICc model: Attitude  Gender. Model averaged estimate

Gender Village Education Age

Average

Variance

0.360 0.122 0.627 0.873

0.020 0.001 0.002 0.000

Model attitude  gender

0.319 – – –

0.35 0.62 0.73 0.81 0.87 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.99 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Relative parameter importance (summed AICc weights)

wildlife. Table 5 indicates that no single model was overwhelmingly supported by the data (i.e. weight of best model < 0.9). The Akaike’s weight of the best model, model 1 (Table 5; 0.35), was only slightly greater than the second and third best models (Table 5; 0.27; 0.11, respectively).

4. Discussion 4.1. The minimal paw-print of snow leopards Assessing the different domains within the conflict framework allows a more fine tuned understanding of human-carnivore interaction. Herders in QNNR generally manifested positive attitudes towards snow leopards across most domains and the majority of respondents supported protection measures for the species. Similarly, other recent studies conducted in China’s Qinghai province have found that local communities expressed a generally tolerant attitude towards snow leopard despite some reports of depredation (Li et al., 2013b; Xu et al., 2008). A study in Spiti Valley, India reported that individuals had positive or neutral attitudes towards snow leopards despite high levels of livestock loss to carnivores in general. Together this suggests local people’s attitudes to snow leopards do not necessarily conflict with snow leopard conservation objectives and are not always determined primarily by depredation rates (Suryawanshi et al., 2014). With respect to the risk domain, the snow leopard was considered to be less of a threat to humans or livestock than either the lynx or the grey wolf. In QNNR, where livestock herding remains a significant source of income, snow leopards were reported to play a comparatively minor role in livestock depredation, as they were held responsible for less than 8% of all livestock killed by predators (and 2% of all losses), representing less than 0.3% of the total livestock holdings. Only five households accused the snow leopard of predating livestock – a fifth of the number that had suffered losses to lynx and a quarter of the number that had suffered losses to wolves – so its impact was experienced by a small proportion of households in the communities. Positive attitudes were

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found even though snow leopards were reported to be responsible for killing mostly yaks, the livestock species of highest economically value. The perceived contribution of snow leopards to livestock depredation recorded in our study was lower than in other similar assessments. For example the percentages of the livestock holdings reportedly lost to snow leopards were 1.3% in Qinghai China, 2% in Baltistan Pakistan, 2.3% and 2.9% in Ladakh India, 2.6% in Annapurna Conservation Area Nepal, and 5.9% in Xinjiang vs 0.3% in QNNR, (Fox et al., 1991; Hussain, 2000; Li et al., 2013b; Namgail et al., 2007; Oli et al., 1994; Schaller et al., 1987 respectively). Furthermore two recent studies in Qinghai, China and Ladakh, India found that snow leopards were responsible for a larger proportion of all livestock losses from all causes (10% and 38% respectively vs 2% in QNNR) (Li et al., 2013b; Namgail et al., 2007). In contrast, the majority of both householders and herders had negative attitudes towards lynx, wolves and bears across all domains. This was especially the case for bears, where people feared for their personal safety. With regard to the lynx and grey wolf, respondents believed that their numbers should be controlled and that these carnivores should not be conserved or protected. The Eurasian lynx was the most important livestock predator, responsible for 15% livestock losses, and affecting 51% of herder respondents. Lynx-related livestock mortality was seven times the losses attributed to the snow leopard. This contrasts to other studies, in which the lynx was responsible for only 1-2% of reported livestock losses (Li et al., 2013b; Namgail et al., 2007). The grey wolf was also reported as a significant predator, responsible for 3 times the losses attributed to snow leopards. In other areas of the snow leopard range, wolf-related mortality of livestock has been reported as fourfold that attributed to snow leopards (Li et al., 2013b). Gender was the only socio-demographic parameter that we found to influence reported beliefs and attitudes. Female respondents tended to harbour more negative attitudes towards carnivores than males, and were less likely to support protecting the wildlife in the area. They also tended to be more fearful of large carnivores and expressed concerns for their and their family’s safety to a greater degree than men (Kellert and Berry, 1987; Røskaft et al., 2007). It has been suggested that women from households that are dependent on natural ecosystems bear a higher share of the social costs of HWCs (Ogra, 2008). For example a study in India found that women bore a disproportionate burden of human wildlife costs, including a decrease in food security, change in workload, a decrease in psychological wellbeing and on occasions an increase dangerous activities (Ogra, 2008). This may also be a factor underlying conflicts with carnivores in China. Women were observed to be engaged in livestock herding but also had high domestic and family responsibilities. Womens decision making power in the family and community related to conservation needs to be explored. We acknowledge that a limitation of most studies concerning depredation, including ours, is that they rely on reported data from livestock owners, and that responses are potentially subject to bias, arising from herders’ views of specific species as causative agents (Suryawanshi et al, 2013). The attribution of livestock deaths to specific predators can be difficult, and errors in identification may occur. For instance, a kill may be attributed to a predator even though it was only scavenging the carcass of an animal that died from other causes (Oli et al., 1994). Some predation claims are difficult to validate, especially when distinguishing between lynx and snow leopards, even when detailed information is collected on depredation events (Mishra, 1997). In the QNNR some of the depredation reports that were collected may have been erroneous, especially those attributed to lynx. Herders reported sightings or

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signs of lynx more often than any other wild carnivore within the last year. They also held strong negative views about lynx and grey wolf, which may have influenced the reported attribution of depredation events to these species. Furthermore, the behaviours of specific carnivores in their interactions with humans may influence perceptions concerning the species (Lescureux and Linnell, 2010). For example, the greater visibility and howling behaviour of wolves may heighten the perception of the risk they pose to livestock (Kellert et al., 1996). In contrast, attitudes towards the lynx, a species that has limited direct interaction with humans, may be in greater part socially constructed (Lescureux and Linnell, 2010). It is also possible that reports of depredation by snow leopards might have been subject to a ‘social desirability’ bias, as snow leopards are recognized as an iconic, protected species (Li et al., 2013b).

4.2. Implications for conservation policies and practices Bringing these dimensions together provides a stronger basis for deciding on policy interventions. Despite the difficulties involved with collecting detailed and validated information on causes of livestock mortality, conflict prevention measures are widely recognized as being vital (Goodrich, 2010; Pettigrew et al., 2012; Treves and Karanth, 2003). However, no single source of evidence, or single approach, should form the entire basis for designing efforts to mitigate HWCs (Rosen et al., 2012). Our findings in QNNR illustrate how the perceived impact of snow leopards on herding activities is relatively small. Such positive attitudes bode well for enlisting the support of local communities in snow leopard conservation efforts. However a small group did report negative views towards snow leopards, which need to be addressed. In addition special care will be necessary in the design and implementation of conservation measures targeted towards lynx, wolves and bears. Attitudes towards the four carnivores varied, highlighting the need for adopting species-specific conservation strategies. Lynx represent the greatest challenge for conservation plans as respondents showed little tolerance for the species. Greater emphasis is required on prevention, in order to reduce livestock losses in the first place, thus mitigating the associated economic burden on local communities and working towards improving attitudes towards carnivores. Such measures might include adapting current grazing restrictions, improving herding management practices and carefully designed compensation schemes, which are tailored to local conditions and address all causes of livestock mortality. All these should be reinforced with educational activities to increase awareness and support for the protection not only of snow leopards but also of other carnivores and their ecosystems. Specific educational strategies are required to reach both men and women in order to address gender-based differences in attitudes towards wildlife. The design of measures to reduce human-predator conflicts should be firmly grounded in local realities. In QNNR, for example, it may be helpful to curtail grazing in predator hotspots in order to minimize encounters between livestock and predators (Nass et al., 1984; Wang and Macdonald, 2006). Studies in France, Sweden and Normay suggest that herding sheep away from lynx habitats, within fenced fields or on alpine pastures proved to dramatically reduce depredation losses per lynx (Odden et al., 2013; Stahl et al., 2001, 2002). The grazing restrictions in QNNR were developed primarily to reduce the further degradation of pastures in mountainous areas but they may also be helping to reduce the contact between domestic livestock and carnivores, by making it easier for carnivores to be supported by wild prey as habitat quality improves.

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Improved herd management practices can also serve to better protect livestock (Ogada et al., 2003; Jackson et al., 1996; Pettigrew et al., 2012). Guarding herds is demanding and difficult in the mountainous terrain of the snow leopard range, and was reported to be largely ineffective in QNNR. However, in our study area the herders’ approach to guarding varied. For example, guarding might constitute watching livestock over a range of different distances, or periodically watching herds from a nearby hut, or having livestock-guarding dogs. A clearer understanding of the scope and variability in these practices is needed to identify possible improvements. Alternatives to guarding, for example fencing large seasonal pastures, are expensive and restrict the movements of wild ungulates. Xu et al. (2008) identified the fragmentation of habitat by large, steel-wire enclosures affecting wild ungulates as one of the main potential threats to snow leopards in the Gouli Region, Kunlun Mountains, China. Sheltered corrals within grazed areas for protection over night, may provide a better solution, allowing free movement of wildlife and yet providing some protection when herd guarding is not feasible (Rosen et al., 2012). Corrals have shown to be successful in controlling depredation, especially from nocturnally active animals such as snow leopards (Jackson et al., 1996; Ogada et al., 2003; Wang and Macdonald, 2006). Finally, compensation is often recommended as a conflict mitigation measure and, in China, it is the primary strategy currently in place (Pettigrew et al., 2012). However compensation schemes are often criticized as they are not financially sustainable, and they suffer from a number of operational difficulties such as lack of clear guidelines, failure to ensure timely payments, and inability to measure success. Their effectiveness in reducing conflicts still requires validation (Pettigrew et al., 2012). In this study, the implementation of compensation policies was found inadequate, as only one herder had received compensation for losses incurred. Further assessments of the monetary impact of livestock depredation are needed in order to understand the consequences on loss of income and whether current compensation schemes are appropriate. It should be noted that herders reported that depredation was the most common event affecting livestock, though it caused lower livestock mortality overall, compared with natural disasters or disease. This suggests that measures are also needed to address these other causes of livestock losses in order to provide better protection of livelihoods and mitigate the residual impact of depredation. 4.3. Conclusion Caution should be taken in generalizing findings from one region to another in the snow leopard range, given local variations in the perceived impact of snow leopard on communities found in various assessments. This study has explored the use of a conflict domain framework as a means to inform policy makers about community beliefs and attitudes towards wildlife across multiple dimensions. This approach has potential to be applied in other range settings and together with other ecological assessments provides the building blocks for developing more systematic knowledge on snow leopard human conflicts. Understanding community perceptions of losses and attitudes towards wildlife is vital for securing community support for and engagement in local research and conservation initiatives. Acknowledgements We acknowledge the financial support of the Snow Leopard Network Grant, the Robertson Foundation and China’s State Forestry Department. We thank QNNR authorities and A Chen, for their assistance and collaboration in the field in Gansu Province, China.

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