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Prediction of adult height of girls from age of menarche and height at menarche
838
December 1974 The Journal o f P E D I A T R I C S
Prediction of adult height of gMs from age of menarche and height at menarche Rose E. Friseh* and J. Stevan Nagel, Cambridge, Mass.
growth data of these girls were previously analyzed for height and weight at menarche, 2,4 at initiation of the growth spurt, 5 and at peak velocity of the adolescent growth spurt) The linear regression equation was fit by the method of least squares.
W E PRESENT A NOMOGRAM (Fig. 1) and the prediction equation on which it is based, for the prediction of the height of a girl at age 18 years from her age and height at menarche. Height at 18 years is equivalent to adult height, since growth has ended by that age in normal girlsJ "3
RESULTS
METHOD
The prediction equation is:
The height and age at menarche were known for each of 181 girls of three longitudinal growth studies: the Berkeley Guidance Study, the Child Research Council Study, and the Longitudinal Studies of Child Health and Development, Harvard School of Public Health. The
Heightl8 yr =30,09-1.58 Agemche+ 0,983 Heightmche(cm) The standard error of estimate (SEE) is 1.9 cm (0.7 inch). For example, a girl who has menarche at age 11 years, at a height of 160 cm (63 inches), will be 170.0 • 1.9 cm (66.7 __-0.7 inches) tall as an adult, whereas she would be only 163.7 ... 1.9 cm (64.2 ___0.7 inches) tall as
From the Harvard Centerfor Population Studies. *Reprintaddress:HarvardCenter.forPopulationStudies, 9 BOW St., Cambridge, Mass. 02138.
Table I. Height (mean and SD) at age 18 years with increasing age of menarche, and at all ages of menarche, according to height (mean and SD) at menarche; categories of height are by rounded standard deviations (6 cm) from the rounded mean at menarche
Menarche ~ 12.9 yr Height category (cm)
No.
<~ 152.0
17
152.1-158.0
32
158.1-164.0
37
>~ 164.1 All subjects
9 95
Vol. 85, No. 6, pp. 838-841
Menarche all ages
Menarche ~ 13.0 yr
Height at Menarche (cm)
Height 18 yr (cm)
148.6 SD 3.6 155.1 SD 1.8 161.2 SD 1.5 165.9 SD 1.9 157.4 SD 5.6
158.0 3.8 163.6 2.4 169.0 2.4 175.6 3.8 165.8 5.8
No.
8 26 27 25 86
Height at Menarche (cm)
Height 18 yr (cm)
146.0 5.0 155.1 6.1 160.7 1.6 167.9 3.7 159.7 7.3
152.4 5.7 160.6 2.5 166.5 2.0 173.6 3.5 165.5 7.2
No.
25 58 64 34 181
Height 18 yr (cm)
156.2 5.1 162.2 2.8 167.9 2.6 174.1 3.6 165.6 6.5
Volume 85 Number 6
Prediction of adult height of girls
174
1,50
173
151
172"
152
171 -"
155
170 -
154
169 -
155
168"
156
167-
- 157
166
158
165"
159
164~ 165-
16z161
HEIGHT AT 160 MENARCHE 159 ~ (cm)
158~ 157 ~ 156 ~
160 AGE OF MENARCHE (YEARS) 16 15 14 13 12 II I0
161 162 163 164
PREDICTED 16.'5 HEIGHT AT 166 18 YEARS (cm) 167 168
155
169
154
t70
153
17i
152
172
151
173
150
174
149 ~
_+ONE
17.5 S.E.E.
148-
176
1471
177
146-
178
145-
179
144-
180
14~
t
181
Fig. 1. Nomogram for the prediction of height at age 18 years from age and height at menarche. Connect the height at menarche and the age of menarche with a straight edge and read off the predicted height at 18 years from the right hand height scale. Plus and minus one standard error of estimate (SEE), 1.9 cm, is drawn next to the predicted height scale at 172 cm.
839
840
Fr&ch and Nagel
The Journal of Pediatrics December 1974
185 - - v
I
I
I
I
I
i
I
'
1
18C x
o
171 X
x
/ x'~
17C
HI8 (cm) 165
oo xx
~'
16C
15~
~ o
o
e" ex
a
m
Age of Menarche yr. ' 15C
14~ 15.0 140
0
__L__
140
I
I
I
I
145 150 155 160 HEIGHT (cm) AT MENARCHE
I
165
I
170
I
175
1
180
Fig. 2, Height at age 18 years (HI8) versus height at menarche of 181 girls according to their age at menarche: (X),~14.0 years. Regression lines for HI8 on height and age at menarche are shown for ages of menarche of 11.0, 13.0 and 15.0 years (see equation.)
an adult, if she had had menarche at age 15 years, at a height of 160 cm. The correlation coefficient (r) for height at age 18, with age and height at menarche, is 0.956; 91% of the variability in adult height in girls is therefore explained by age and height at menarche. Table I summarizes the heights at age 18 years according to categories of height at menarche and age at menarche for the 181 girls of the three growth studies analyzed. COMMENT Our method may be useful as a prediction of adult height in girls of exceptional shortness or tallness at adolescence and does not require radiographs of the
hands and knees. It is also useful when young adolescent girls are considering a career with a special height requirement, such as ballet.6 The standard error of estimate of 1.9 cm (0.7 inch) of our method is considerably lower than the error of 5 cm (2.0 inch) reported from preliminary results of prediction of adult height from an equation for age, height, and bone age. 6
REFERENCES
1. Frisch RE, and Revelle R: The height and weight of adolescent boys and girls at the time of peak velocity of growth in height and weight: longitudinal data, Human Biol 41:536, 1969. 2. Frisch, RE, and Revelle R: Height and weight at men-
Volume 85 Number 6
3, 4.
arche and a hypothesis of menarche, Arch Dis Child 46:695, 1971. Tanner JM: Growth at adolescence, ed. 2, Oxford, 1962, Blackweli Scientific Publieations, p. 27. Frisch RE, Revelle R, and Cook S: Height, weight and age at menarche and the "critical weight" hypothesis, Science 174:1148, 1971.
Prediction of adult height of girls
841
5. Frisch RE, and Revelle R: The height and weight of girls and boys at the time of initiation of the adolescent growth spurt in height and weight and the relationship to menarche, Human Biol. 43:140, 1971. 6. Tanner JM: Growing up, Sci Am 229:34, 1973.
December 1974 The Journal o f P E D I A T R I C S
Prediction of adult height of gMs from age of menarche and height at menarche Rose E. Friseh* and J. Stevan Nagel, Cambridge, Mass.
growth data of these girls were previously analyzed for height and weight at menarche, 2,4 at initiation of the growth spurt, 5 and at peak velocity of the adolescent growth spurt) The linear regression equation was fit by the method of least squares.
W E PRESENT A NOMOGRAM (Fig. 1) and the prediction equation on which it is based, for the prediction of the height of a girl at age 18 years from her age and height at menarche. Height at 18 years is equivalent to adult height, since growth has ended by that age in normal girlsJ "3
RESULTS
METHOD
The prediction equation is:
The height and age at menarche were known for each of 181 girls of three longitudinal growth studies: the Berkeley Guidance Study, the Child Research Council Study, and the Longitudinal Studies of Child Health and Development, Harvard School of Public Health. The
Heightl8 yr =30,09-1.58 Agemche+ 0,983 Heightmche(cm) The standard error of estimate (SEE) is 1.9 cm (0.7 inch). For example, a girl who has menarche at age 11 years, at a height of 160 cm (63 inches), will be 170.0 • 1.9 cm (66.7 __-0.7 inches) tall as an adult, whereas she would be only 163.7 ... 1.9 cm (64.2 ___0.7 inches) tall as
From the Harvard Centerfor Population Studies. *Reprintaddress:HarvardCenter.forPopulationStudies, 9 BOW St., Cambridge, Mass. 02138.
Table I. Height (mean and SD) at age 18 years with increasing age of menarche, and at all ages of menarche, according to height (mean and SD) at menarche; categories of height are by rounded standard deviations (6 cm) from the rounded mean at menarche
Menarche ~ 12.9 yr Height category (cm)
No.
<~ 152.0
17
152.1-158.0
32
158.1-164.0
37
>~ 164.1 All subjects
9 95
Vol. 85, No. 6, pp. 838-841
Menarche all ages
Menarche ~ 13.0 yr
Height at Menarche (cm)
Height 18 yr (cm)
148.6 SD 3.6 155.1 SD 1.8 161.2 SD 1.5 165.9 SD 1.9 157.4 SD 5.6
158.0 3.8 163.6 2.4 169.0 2.4 175.6 3.8 165.8 5.8
No.
8 26 27 25 86
Height at Menarche (cm)
Height 18 yr (cm)
146.0 5.0 155.1 6.1 160.7 1.6 167.9 3.7 159.7 7.3
152.4 5.7 160.6 2.5 166.5 2.0 173.6 3.5 165.5 7.2
No.
25 58 64 34 181
Height 18 yr (cm)
156.2 5.1 162.2 2.8 167.9 2.6 174.1 3.6 165.6 6.5
Volume 85 Number 6
Prediction of adult height of girls
174
1,50
173
151
172"
152
171 -"
155
170 -
154
169 -
155
168"
156
167-
- 157
166
158
165"
159
164~ 165-
16z161
HEIGHT AT 160 MENARCHE 159 ~ (cm)
158~ 157 ~ 156 ~
160 AGE OF MENARCHE (YEARS) 16 15 14 13 12 II I0
161 162 163 164
PREDICTED 16.'5 HEIGHT AT 166 18 YEARS (cm) 167 168
155
169
154
t70
153
17i
152
172
151
173
150
174
149 ~
_+ONE
17.5 S.E.E.
148-
176
1471
177
146-
178
145-
179
144-
180
14~
t
181
Fig. 1. Nomogram for the prediction of height at age 18 years from age and height at menarche. Connect the height at menarche and the age of menarche with a straight edge and read off the predicted height at 18 years from the right hand height scale. Plus and minus one standard error of estimate (SEE), 1.9 cm, is drawn next to the predicted height scale at 172 cm.
839
840
Fr&ch and Nagel
The Journal of Pediatrics December 1974
185 - - v
I
I
I
I
I
i
I
'
1
18C x
o
171 X
x
/ x'~
17C
HI8 (cm) 165
oo xx
~'
16C
15~
~ o
o
e" ex
a
m
Age of Menarche yr. ' 15C
14~ 15.0 140
0
__L__
140
I
I
I
I
145 150 155 160 HEIGHT (cm) AT MENARCHE
I
165
I
170
I
175
1
180
Fig. 2, Height at age 18 years (HI8) versus height at menarche of 181 girls according to their age at menarche: (X),~
an adult, if she had had menarche at age 15 years, at a height of 160 cm. The correlation coefficient (r) for height at age 18, with age and height at menarche, is 0.956; 91% of the variability in adult height in girls is therefore explained by age and height at menarche. Table I summarizes the heights at age 18 years according to categories of height at menarche and age at menarche for the 181 girls of the three growth studies analyzed. COMMENT Our method may be useful as a prediction of adult height in girls of exceptional shortness or tallness at adolescence and does not require radiographs of the
hands and knees. It is also useful when young adolescent girls are considering a career with a special height requirement, such as ballet.6 The standard error of estimate of 1.9 cm (0.7 inch) of our method is considerably lower than the error of 5 cm (2.0 inch) reported from preliminary results of prediction of adult height from an equation for age, height, and bone age. 6
REFERENCES
1. Frisch RE, and Revelle R: The height and weight of adolescent boys and girls at the time of peak velocity of growth in height and weight: longitudinal data, Human Biol 41:536, 1969. 2. Frisch, RE, and Revelle R: Height and weight at men-
Volume 85 Number 6
3, 4.
arche and a hypothesis of menarche, Arch Dis Child 46:695, 1971. Tanner JM: Growth at adolescence, ed. 2, Oxford, 1962, Blackweli Scientific Publieations, p. 27. Frisch RE, Revelle R, and Cook S: Height, weight and age at menarche and the "critical weight" hypothesis, Science 174:1148, 1971.
Prediction of adult height of girls
841
5. Frisch RE, and Revelle R: The height and weight of girls and boys at the time of initiation of the adolescent growth spurt in height and weight and the relationship to menarche, Human Biol. 43:140, 1971. 6. Tanner JM: Growing up, Sci Am 229:34, 1973.