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Prospect of wind energy utilization in Saudi Arabia: A review
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Energy (2019) 000–000 746–751 EnergyProcedia Procedia160 00 (2017) www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
2nd International Conference on Energy and Power, ICEP2018, 13–15 December 2018, Sydney, Australia 2nd International Conference on Energy and Power, ICEP2018, 13–15 December 2018, Sydney, Australia
Prospect of wind energy utilization in Saudi Arabia: A review International on District Heating and Cooling ProspectThe of 15th wind energy Symposium utilization in Saudi Arabia: A review
Hamed Allhibi, Harun Chowdhury*, Mohamed Zaid, Bavin Loganathan, Firoz Alam Hamed Allhibi, Harun Bavin demand-outdoor Loganathan, Firoz Alam Assessing theChowdhury*, feasibility Mohamed of usingZaid, the heat School of Engineering, RMIT University, Melbourne, 3000, Australia School of Engineering, RMIT University, Melbourne, 3000, Australia
temperature function for a long-term district heat demand forecast
Abstract Abstract
I. Andrića,b,c*, A. Pinaa, P. Ferrãoa, J. Fournierb., B. Lacarrièrec, O. Le Correc
In Saudi Arabia, the current production of electric power is mainly relying on crude oil which causes a high percentage a IN+ Center forthe Innovation, Technology Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal of Saudi carbon dioxide emissions and noandpower is generated from any renewable sources. However, recently Saudi In Arabia, current production ofPolicy electric power is mainly relying on crude oil which causes a high percentage b Veolia Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France Government a development plan ‘The Saudifrom Vision 2030’ where the targetHowever, is 20% of recently the production of carbon dioxide emissions and no power is generated any renewable sources. Saudi c has announced Département Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement - IMT Atlantique, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, 44300 Nantes, France of power fromhas theannounced renewableasources mainlyplan from‘The solarSaudi and wind. Like other countries e.g., China, and UK Government development Vision 2030’ where the target is 20%India, of theUS production that produce significant amount of their electric powerand from renewable sources. Saudi Arabia has a vast of power froma the renewable sources mainly from solar wind. Like other countries e.g., China, India, USland andarea UK where there isa asignificant plenty of amount prospectoftotheir install renewable (solar and wind farm) to generate a significant that produce electric powerpower from plants renewable sources. Saudi Arabia has a vast land area amount of electric power meet their 2030 target. This power paper analyses past 10 in variousa location of Abstract where there is a plenty oftoprospect to install renewable plants (solar andyears windwind farm)data to generate significant Saudi Arabia to investigate feasibility to target. generate power. studypast also10 recommends locations amount of electric power to the meet their 2030 This paperThis analyses years wind the datapotential in various locationthat of District heating networks arethe commonly addressed in thepower. literature asstudy one of therecommends most effectivethe solutions forlocations decreasing the are suitable fortowind power generation including suggestions of the wind turbine specifications. Saudi Arabia investigate feasibility to generate This also potential that greenhouse gas wind emissions from the building sector. These systemsof require high turbine investments which are returned through the heat are suitable for power generation including suggestions the wind specifications.
to the changed climate conditions ©sales. 2018 Due The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. and building renovation policies, heat demand in the future could decrease, ©prolonging 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. theaccess investment This is an open articlereturn under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) © 2018 The Authors. Published byperiod. Elsevier Ltd. This ismain an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Theis scope of this paper is toresponsibility assess feasibility of using the heat demand outdoor temperature function on for Energy heat demand Selection peer-review under of the scientific committee of the–2nd International Conference and This an and open access article under the CCthe BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 2nd International Conference on Energy and forecast. The district of Alvalade, located in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as a2nd caseInternational study. The Conference district is consisted ofand 665 Power, ICEP2018. Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the on Energy Power, ICEP2018. buildings that vary in both construction period and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district Power, ICEP2018. Keywords: Renewable energy; energy; wind turbine; Saudi Arabia;deep). KSA; Saudi Vision 2030; renovation scenarios werewind developed (shallow, intermediate, To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were comparedRenewable with results fromwind a dynamic heat turbine; demandSaudi model, previously developed and validated by the authors. Keywords: energy; energy; wind Arabia; KSA; Saudi Vision 2030; The results showed that when only weather change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications error in annual demand was lower than 20% for all weather scenarios considered). However, after introducing renovation 1.(the Introduction the error value increased up to 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation scenarios combination considered). 1.scenarios, Introduction The valueis of slope increase coefficient on averageworldwide within theutilizing range of the 3.8% up to 8% per decade, corresponds to the There a rapid of increased power generation wind energy because ofthat its higher efficiency in athe number of hours of2016, 22-139h during heating season (depending on the combination of GW) weather and indecrease conversion process. Forheating instance, in theworldwide amounttheofutilizing the wind was increased by (50 from There is rapid increase of power generation theenergy wind energy because of 12% its higher efficiency renovation scenarios considered). On the other hand, function intercept increased for 7.8-12.7% per decade (depending on the 2015 [1]. The wind energy total energyofinthe 2016 worldwide [2]. That makesby4% of the in conversion process. For reached instance,469 in GW 2016,ofthe amount wind energy was increased 12% (50total GW)energy from coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and 2015 [1]. The wind energy reached 469 GW of total energy in 2016 worldwide [2]. That makes 4% of the total energy improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations. © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and * Corresponding author. Tel.: +6199256103. Cooling. E-mail address: [email protected]
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +6199256103. E-mail address: [email protected] Keywords:©Heat Forecast; Climatebychange 1876-6102 2018demand; The Authors. Published Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) 1876-6102 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection under responsibility of the scientific of the 2nd International Conference on Energy and Power, ICEP2018. This is an and openpeer-review access article under the CC BY-NC-ND licensecommittee (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 2nd International Conference on Energy and Power, ICEP2018. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling. 1876-6102 © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 2nd International Conference on Energy and Power, ICEP2018. 10.1016/j.egypro.2019.02.184
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generated worldwide which is equivalent to that produced by Japan, the 5th largest energy producer in the world. In Europe, the share of wind energy production technology was 12% of all other energy sources. Recent data indicate that most of the Middle East countries except Iran and Israel accounted almost 0% of this renewable energy technology [3]. The production of energy from this renewable source in these countries has not been implemented for a variety of reasons. Firstly, the availability of oil in large quantities in these countries and secondly, the lack of information and investment on research in extracting energy from other renewable energy sources. However, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states: The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait have taken many measures to reduce their dependency on crude oil and planned to utilize other natural sources such as natural gas, wind and solar energy to produce electricity and reduce carbon emission despite of the rapid population and industrial growth in these countries. Fig. 1 shows the worldwide power generation from renewable energy share in percentage by region. 2 500 000
Power Generation , GWh
2 000 000
Africa
Asia
C America+ Carib
Europ
Middle East
N America
S America
1 500 000
1 000 000
500 000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Fig. 1. Renewable energy power generation [19].
Wind power technology is expected to rise rapidly in many countries in future including KSA. Recently in Saudi Arabia, research and development initiatives have been taken by several government funded projects aimed to reduce the consumption of crude oil and thereby controlling CO2 emissions. There are several studies [2-5] and experiments are ongoing in solar and nuclear power to generate electricity. The Saudi Vision 2030 is focusing mainly on renewable energy including wind energy. Its target is to reach 20% of its internal power generation from solar and wind by 2030 [6]. 2. Current power generation scenario in KSA Currently in KSA, electricity is generated by Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) and Saline Water Conversion Corporation (SWCC) mainly from diesel and natural gas [7]. SEC generate 79 GW of electricity with a rate of 36% efficiency and SWCC provides 12% of the total electricity in KSA. The National Electricity Transmission Company, a company owned by the Saudi Electricity Company, is responsible for the transfer of electrical power from the generation plants to the distribution networks, operation and maintenance of the electricity transmission system from 110 kV to 380 kV. The company has approximately 77,181 km power transmission line for high voltage and low voltage. It also has 3059 transformers and 990 stations for high voltage and low voltage [8]. In 2001, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman agreed to establish a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and developed an interconnecting power station. In 2009, the Commission started its functions with four member states before the rest of the countries were organized in 2014. In 2017, GCC dealt with a total of 142 cases of loss of generation or loads over 100 MW and maintained for the ninth year in a row for the continuity of security of
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power networks by up to 100% [9]. Fig. 2 shows the electricity production and the unit price of electricity (Riyals/kwh) in Saudi Arabia between 2012 and 2017. Over that period, the lowest point of production was observed in 2013 with the total production of electricity generation at around 203 GWh, while the peak point was on the following year in 2014 at approximately 219 GWh. From 2014 till 2017, there was a steady decrease in the production of electricity in Saudi Arabia, which was due to high electricity price rate as indicated in Fig. 2. 0.35
222,000
0.3
218,000
0.25
216,000 214,000
0.2
212,000 0.15
210,000 208,000
0.1
206,000
0.05
204,000 202,000 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Unit Price of power (Riyals/kwh)
Total electicity generation (GWh)
220,000
0 2018
Fig. 2. Electricity production and change of unit price of power in Saudi Arabia, adapted from [8-9].
3. Wind energy in Saudi Arabia Wind energy can be an attractive technology of alternative energy sources for KSA. The wind map of Saudi Arabia marks that the kingdom is identified by the presence of two major areas which are the Arabian Gulf and the red sea coastline zones. As shown in the Renewable Resource Atlas, the annual average wind speeds in most areas of KSA is between 6.0 and 8.0 m/s. However, these statistics do not include a wind power potential analysis reflecting the wind speed distributions over time. Higher wind speeds occur in the northeast, the central and near the mountains in the western regions. King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy (KACARE) established ten monitoring stations: in Hafar Al Batin, Sharurah, two sites in Yanbu, two sites in Riyadh, Aljof, Traif and Jeddah. Fig. 3 shows the Saudi Arabia wind speed map. In the same time KACARE plans to install a complete wind monitoring network consisting of 40 monitoring masts around the country. Moreover, Atlas will provide the data as they are installed and refine the current data. KSA has enough wind energy potential with average wind speed 7.5-8 m/s in east coast reign and 7-7.5 m/s on the western coast. The central reign has average wind speed 5-6.5 m/s [10]. Fig. 4 shows the average wind speeds of different sites located 100 m above the sea-level during of entire year in 2016. These selected sites are located all over the entire kingdom represent north, south, east, west and the middle regions of Saudi Arabia. Both Riyadh, the capital (i.e. the largest city in Saudi Arabia), and Jeddah, the second largest, have the lowest average of wind speed which might be due to the natural landscape. Yanbu has the highest average wind speed. In the same time, Turaif, Sharurah and Hafar Al Batin are rural areas and have considerable average wind speed.
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Fig. 3. Saudi Arabia airspeed around the country, adapted from [10].
9
Wind speed (m/s)
8 7 6 5 4 3
Al Jouf: Wind Station Hafar Al Batin: Wind Station Riyadh - City Site A: Wind Station
Al Wajh: Wind Station Jeddah South: Wind Station Sharurah: Wind Station
2 Month Fig. 4. Monthly average wind speed in different locations of Saudi Arabia in 2016, adapted from [10].
4. Selection of wind turbines for power generation in Saudi Arabia Large wind turbine is required to convert the wind energy into electricity in a commercial scale. Currently, there are two leading wind turbine manufacturers: Vestas and Goldwind. They have installed a significant number of turbines worldwide for commercial wind power generation [11, 12]. Table 1 represents the specifications of two commercial wind turbine models.
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Table 1. Comparison of two wind turbines with their specifications. Type
Vestas V136
Goldwind 3.0MW(S)
Capacity
4-4.2 MW
3-3.4MW
Temperature
-20 +45
-30 +50
Frequency
50/60 Hz
50/60 Hz
Hub High wind speed Price Annual Energy Production Design Lifetime
91.5 m 6-9 m/s $1.1 million/ MW 18 GWh 25 Years
100m 5.5-8.5 m/s $1.01 million /MW 25 Years
Selection of a proper wind turbine depends on the availability of wind energy as well as the characteristics of wind speed in those sites. According to the available wind speed data for different sites in KSA, Vestas wind turbine is a suitable and sustainable solution to invest and produce electricity in Yanbu where the average wind speed is over 8 m/s. However, more research need to be done before installing wind farm for large scale power generation. A socioeconomic study also must be performed before implementing the project on site. 5. Discussion Most of the countries in the world including KSA rely severely on coal, oil and natural gas which is the main cause of CO2 emissions and global warming. However, in 2015, the representatives of more than 100 countries met to sign the Paris convention to limit carbon dioxide and naphtha emissions [13-14]. Their goal is to control and limit the global temperature not more than 2 °C per year. KSA is one of the important countries in this treaty for several reasons. Firstly, KSA is the largest crude oil exporter that exports more than 8 million barrels of crude oil daily [15] and consumes more than 3.4 million barrels of crude oil per a day [16]. In addition, in 2014, KSA generated around 494.82 million ton of CO2 emission [17]. Consequently, that makes KSA to be in the 11th rank in the world of CO2 emission. On the other hand, Saudi's electricity consumption is expected to grow twice by 2023 [18]. Therefore, in KSA, CO2 emissions will be increased significantly because of future development and industrialization. For example, in 1990, CO2 emissions were 208 million metric tons while in 2010, CO2 emissions were 468.7 million metric tons. One of the solutions to reduce CO2 emissions is to use renewable energy utilization for electric power generation. KSA utilize more than 3 million barrels per day of domestic oil consumption to provide more than 55 GW of energy [1]. Therefore, KSA is the largest consumer of petroleum in the Middle East and the 6th in the world [2]. In addition, KSA is the first country in the world using crude oil for generating power. Because of the increasing use of crude oil to generate power for domestic consumption, KSA may become an oil importer by 2038 [19]. KSA has recently announced a national development plan ‘the Saudi Vision 2030’ to utilise the natural resources to produce energy. Producing 20% of the total energy from natural sources is one of the vision goals to reduce the reliance of crude oil. The Saudi Vision 2030 is monitored profoundly to fulfil its target through the investment projects to support scientific research or partnering with several advanced countries in renewable energy field. 6. Conclusions and recommendations Although the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, it has the potential to utilize renewable energy sources specially the wind energy for electricity generation. Several locations of the kingdom are suitable for wind power generation in large scale. The Saudi governments can take initiative to install several wind firms in the potential sites by some pilot projects to further investigate the feasibility of wind power generation. Thus, the kingdom will be able to reach its target 20% power generation from renewable energy sources mentioned in the Saudi Vision 2030.
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References [1] British Petroleum 2017. BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2017. Available at: http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energyeconomics/statistical-review-of-worldenergy.html. Accessed August 24, 2017. [2] International Atomic Energy Agency (2018). IAEA Annual Report for 2017. [online] Available at: https://www.iaea.org/opic/annual- report2017 [Accessed 2018]. [3] Gulfcooperationcouncilinterconnectionauthority(2018). AnnualReportof2017. [online]Availableat:http://www.gccia.com.sa/Data/Downloads/Reports/FILE_22.pdf [Accessed 2018]. [4] Irena.org. (2018). International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). [online] Available at: https://www.irena.org [Accessed 2 Dec. 2018] [5] Alshammari, Y. and Sarathy, S. (2017). Achieving 80% greenhouse gas reduction target in Saudi Arabia under low and medium oil prices. Energy Policy, 101, pp.502-511. [6] Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. National Transformation Program 2020, 2016.Viewed 11 August 2016,< http://vision2030.gov.sa/en/ntp> [7] Al Garni, H., Kassem, A., Awasthi, A., Komljenovic, D. and Al-Haddad, K. (2016). A multicriteria decision making approach for evaluating renewable power generation sources in Saudi Arabia. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 16, pp.137-150. [8] Saudi Electricity Company (2018). Annual Report 2017. [online] Available at: https://www.se.com.sa/arsa/Lists/List5/Attachments/21/AnnualReport2017.pdf [Accessed 2018]. [9] Alarabiya.net. (2018). Electricity cost in Saudi Arabia. [online] Available at: https://www.alarabiya.net [Accessed 13 Dec. 2017]. [10] Rratlas.energy.gov.sa. (2018). Saudi Arabia Renewable Resource Atlas. [online] Available at: https://rratlas.energy.gov.sa [Accessed 30 Nov. 2018]. [11] Goldwind Australia. (2018). - Goldwind Australia. [online] Available at: http://www.goldwindaustralia.com [Accessed 30 Nov. 2018]. [12] www.vestas.com, V. (2018). Vestas - wind turbine solutions and services. [online] Vestas.com. Available at: https://www.vestas.com/ [Accessed 30 Nov. 2018]. [13] Alrikabi, N. (2014). Renewable Energy Types. Journal of Clean Energy Technologies, pp.61-64. [14] Sathaye, J. and Meyers, S. (2011). Greenhouse gas mitigation assessment. Dordrecht: Springer. [15] Rambo, K., Warsinger, D., Shanbhogue, S., V, J. and Ghoniem, A. (2017). Water-Energy Nexus in Saudi Arabia. Energy Procedia, 105, pp.3837-3843. [16] Baseer, M., Meyer, J., Rehman, S. and Alam, M. (2017). Wind power characteristics of seven data collection sites in Jubail, Saudi Arabia using Weibull parameters. Renewable Energy, 102, pp.35-49. [17] Ramli, M., Twaha, S. and Al-Hamouz, Z. (2017). Analyzing the potential and progress of distributed generation applications in Saudi Arabia: The case of solar and wind resources. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 70, pp.287-297. [18] Al-Abbadi, N. (2005). Wind energy resource assessment for five locations in Saudi Arabia. Renewable Energy, 30(10), pp.1489-1499. [19] Shaahid, S., Al-Hadhrami, L. and Rahman, M. (2014). Potential of Establishment of Wind Farms in Western Province of Saudi Arabia. Energy Procedia, 52, pp.497-505.
ScienceDirect ScienceDirect
Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 Available online www.sciencedirect.com Available online atatwww.sciencedirect.com Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000
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www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
Energy (2019) 000–000 746–751 EnergyProcedia Procedia160 00 (2017) www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
2nd International Conference on Energy and Power, ICEP2018, 13–15 December 2018, Sydney, Australia 2nd International Conference on Energy and Power, ICEP2018, 13–15 December 2018, Sydney, Australia
Prospect of wind energy utilization in Saudi Arabia: A review International on District Heating and Cooling ProspectThe of 15th wind energy Symposium utilization in Saudi Arabia: A review
Hamed Allhibi, Harun Chowdhury*, Mohamed Zaid, Bavin Loganathan, Firoz Alam Hamed Allhibi, Harun Bavin demand-outdoor Loganathan, Firoz Alam Assessing theChowdhury*, feasibility Mohamed of usingZaid, the heat School of Engineering, RMIT University, Melbourne, 3000, Australia School of Engineering, RMIT University, Melbourne, 3000, Australia
temperature function for a long-term district heat demand forecast
Abstract Abstract
I. Andrića,b,c*, A. Pinaa, P. Ferrãoa, J. Fournierb., B. Lacarrièrec, O. Le Correc
In Saudi Arabia, the current production of electric power is mainly relying on crude oil which causes a high percentage a IN+ Center forthe Innovation, Technology Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal of Saudi carbon dioxide emissions and noandpower is generated from any renewable sources. However, recently Saudi In Arabia, current production ofPolicy electric power is mainly relying on crude oil which causes a high percentage b Veolia Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France Government a development plan ‘The Saudifrom Vision 2030’ where the targetHowever, is 20% of recently the production of carbon dioxide emissions and no power is generated any renewable sources. Saudi c has announced Département Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement - IMT Atlantique, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, 44300 Nantes, France of power fromhas theannounced renewableasources mainlyplan from‘The solarSaudi and wind. Like other countries e.g., China, and UK Government development Vision 2030’ where the target is 20%India, of theUS production that produce significant amount of their electric powerand from renewable sources. Saudi Arabia has a vast of power froma the renewable sources mainly from solar wind. Like other countries e.g., China, India, USland andarea UK where there isa asignificant plenty of amount prospectoftotheir install renewable (solar and wind farm) to generate a significant that produce electric powerpower from plants renewable sources. Saudi Arabia has a vast land area amount of electric power meet their 2030 target. This power paper analyses past 10 in variousa location of Abstract where there is a plenty oftoprospect to install renewable plants (solar andyears windwind farm)data to generate significant Saudi Arabia to investigate feasibility to target. generate power. studypast also10 recommends locations amount of electric power to the meet their 2030 This paperThis analyses years wind the datapotential in various locationthat of District heating networks arethe commonly addressed in thepower. literature asstudy one of therecommends most effectivethe solutions forlocations decreasing the are suitable fortowind power generation including suggestions of the wind turbine specifications. Saudi Arabia investigate feasibility to generate This also potential that greenhouse gas wind emissions from the building sector. These systemsof require high turbine investments which are returned through the heat are suitable for power generation including suggestions the wind specifications.
to the changed climate conditions ©sales. 2018 Due The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. and building renovation policies, heat demand in the future could decrease, ©prolonging 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. theaccess investment This is an open articlereturn under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) © 2018 The Authors. Published byperiod. Elsevier Ltd. This ismain an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Theis scope of this paper is toresponsibility assess feasibility of using the heat demand outdoor temperature function on for Energy heat demand Selection peer-review under of the scientific committee of the–2nd International Conference and This an and open access article under the CCthe BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 2nd International Conference on Energy and forecast. The district of Alvalade, located in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as a2nd caseInternational study. The Conference district is consisted ofand 665 Power, ICEP2018. Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the on Energy Power, ICEP2018. buildings that vary in both construction period and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district Power, ICEP2018. Keywords: Renewable energy; energy; wind turbine; Saudi Arabia;deep). KSA; Saudi Vision 2030; renovation scenarios werewind developed (shallow, intermediate, To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were comparedRenewable with results fromwind a dynamic heat turbine; demandSaudi model, previously developed and validated by the authors. Keywords: energy; energy; wind Arabia; KSA; Saudi Vision 2030; The results showed that when only weather change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications error in annual demand was lower than 20% for all weather scenarios considered). However, after introducing renovation 1.(the Introduction the error value increased up to 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation scenarios combination considered). 1.scenarios, Introduction The valueis of slope increase coefficient on averageworldwide within theutilizing range of the 3.8% up to 8% per decade, corresponds to the There a rapid of increased power generation wind energy because ofthat its higher efficiency in athe number of hours of2016, 22-139h during heating season (depending on the combination of GW) weather and indecrease conversion process. Forheating instance, in theworldwide amounttheofutilizing the wind was increased by (50 from There is rapid increase of power generation theenergy wind energy because of 12% its higher efficiency renovation scenarios considered). On the other hand, function intercept increased for 7.8-12.7% per decade (depending on the 2015 [1]. The wind energy total energyofinthe 2016 worldwide [2]. That makesby4% of the in conversion process. For reached instance,469 in GW 2016,ofthe amount wind energy was increased 12% (50total GW)energy from coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and 2015 [1]. The wind energy reached 469 GW of total energy in 2016 worldwide [2]. That makes 4% of the total energy improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations. © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and * Corresponding author. Tel.: +6199256103. Cooling. E-mail address: [email protected]
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +6199256103. E-mail address: [email protected] Keywords:©Heat Forecast; Climatebychange 1876-6102 2018demand; The Authors. Published Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) 1876-6102 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection under responsibility of the scientific of the 2nd International Conference on Energy and Power, ICEP2018. This is an and openpeer-review access article under the CC BY-NC-ND licensecommittee (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 2nd International Conference on Energy and Power, ICEP2018. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling. 1876-6102 © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 2nd International Conference on Energy and Power, ICEP2018. 10.1016/j.egypro.2019.02.184
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generated worldwide which is equivalent to that produced by Japan, the 5th largest energy producer in the world. In Europe, the share of wind energy production technology was 12% of all other energy sources. Recent data indicate that most of the Middle East countries except Iran and Israel accounted almost 0% of this renewable energy technology [3]. The production of energy from this renewable source in these countries has not been implemented for a variety of reasons. Firstly, the availability of oil in large quantities in these countries and secondly, the lack of information and investment on research in extracting energy from other renewable energy sources. However, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states: The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait have taken many measures to reduce their dependency on crude oil and planned to utilize other natural sources such as natural gas, wind and solar energy to produce electricity and reduce carbon emission despite of the rapid population and industrial growth in these countries. Fig. 1 shows the worldwide power generation from renewable energy share in percentage by region. 2 500 000
Power Generation , GWh
2 000 000
Africa
Asia
C America+ Carib
Europ
Middle East
N America
S America
1 500 000
1 000 000
500 000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Fig. 1. Renewable energy power generation [19].
Wind power technology is expected to rise rapidly in many countries in future including KSA. Recently in Saudi Arabia, research and development initiatives have been taken by several government funded projects aimed to reduce the consumption of crude oil and thereby controlling CO2 emissions. There are several studies [2-5] and experiments are ongoing in solar and nuclear power to generate electricity. The Saudi Vision 2030 is focusing mainly on renewable energy including wind energy. Its target is to reach 20% of its internal power generation from solar and wind by 2030 [6]. 2. Current power generation scenario in KSA Currently in KSA, electricity is generated by Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) and Saline Water Conversion Corporation (SWCC) mainly from diesel and natural gas [7]. SEC generate 79 GW of electricity with a rate of 36% efficiency and SWCC provides 12% of the total electricity in KSA. The National Electricity Transmission Company, a company owned by the Saudi Electricity Company, is responsible for the transfer of electrical power from the generation plants to the distribution networks, operation and maintenance of the electricity transmission system from 110 kV to 380 kV. The company has approximately 77,181 km power transmission line for high voltage and low voltage. It also has 3059 transformers and 990 stations for high voltage and low voltage [8]. In 2001, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman agreed to establish a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and developed an interconnecting power station. In 2009, the Commission started its functions with four member states before the rest of the countries were organized in 2014. In 2017, GCC dealt with a total of 142 cases of loss of generation or loads over 100 MW and maintained for the ninth year in a row for the continuity of security of
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power networks by up to 100% [9]. Fig. 2 shows the electricity production and the unit price of electricity (Riyals/kwh) in Saudi Arabia between 2012 and 2017. Over that period, the lowest point of production was observed in 2013 with the total production of electricity generation at around 203 GWh, while the peak point was on the following year in 2014 at approximately 219 GWh. From 2014 till 2017, there was a steady decrease in the production of electricity in Saudi Arabia, which was due to high electricity price rate as indicated in Fig. 2. 0.35
222,000
0.3
218,000
0.25
216,000 214,000
0.2
212,000 0.15
210,000 208,000
0.1
206,000
0.05
204,000 202,000 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Unit Price of power (Riyals/kwh)
Total electicity generation (GWh)
220,000
0 2018
Fig. 2. Electricity production and change of unit price of power in Saudi Arabia, adapted from [8-9].
3. Wind energy in Saudi Arabia Wind energy can be an attractive technology of alternative energy sources for KSA. The wind map of Saudi Arabia marks that the kingdom is identified by the presence of two major areas which are the Arabian Gulf and the red sea coastline zones. As shown in the Renewable Resource Atlas, the annual average wind speeds in most areas of KSA is between 6.0 and 8.0 m/s. However, these statistics do not include a wind power potential analysis reflecting the wind speed distributions over time. Higher wind speeds occur in the northeast, the central and near the mountains in the western regions. King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy (KACARE) established ten monitoring stations: in Hafar Al Batin, Sharurah, two sites in Yanbu, two sites in Riyadh, Aljof, Traif and Jeddah. Fig. 3 shows the Saudi Arabia wind speed map. In the same time KACARE plans to install a complete wind monitoring network consisting of 40 monitoring masts around the country. Moreover, Atlas will provide the data as they are installed and refine the current data. KSA has enough wind energy potential with average wind speed 7.5-8 m/s in east coast reign and 7-7.5 m/s on the western coast. The central reign has average wind speed 5-6.5 m/s [10]. Fig. 4 shows the average wind speeds of different sites located 100 m above the sea-level during of entire year in 2016. These selected sites are located all over the entire kingdom represent north, south, east, west and the middle regions of Saudi Arabia. Both Riyadh, the capital (i.e. the largest city in Saudi Arabia), and Jeddah, the second largest, have the lowest average of wind speed which might be due to the natural landscape. Yanbu has the highest average wind speed. In the same time, Turaif, Sharurah and Hafar Al Batin are rural areas and have considerable average wind speed.
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Fig. 3. Saudi Arabia airspeed around the country, adapted from [10].
9
Wind speed (m/s)
8 7 6 5 4 3
Al Jouf: Wind Station Hafar Al Batin: Wind Station Riyadh - City Site A: Wind Station
Al Wajh: Wind Station Jeddah South: Wind Station Sharurah: Wind Station
2 Month Fig. 4. Monthly average wind speed in different locations of Saudi Arabia in 2016, adapted from [10].
4. Selection of wind turbines for power generation in Saudi Arabia Large wind turbine is required to convert the wind energy into electricity in a commercial scale. Currently, there are two leading wind turbine manufacturers: Vestas and Goldwind. They have installed a significant number of turbines worldwide for commercial wind power generation [11, 12]. Table 1 represents the specifications of two commercial wind turbine models.
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Table 1. Comparison of two wind turbines with their specifications. Type
Vestas V136
Goldwind 3.0MW(S)
Capacity
4-4.2 MW
3-3.4MW
Temperature
-20 +45
-30 +50
Frequency
50/60 Hz
50/60 Hz
Hub High wind speed Price Annual Energy Production Design Lifetime
91.5 m 6-9 m/s $1.1 million/ MW 18 GWh 25 Years
100m 5.5-8.5 m/s $1.01 million /MW 25 Years
Selection of a proper wind turbine depends on the availability of wind energy as well as the characteristics of wind speed in those sites. According to the available wind speed data for different sites in KSA, Vestas wind turbine is a suitable and sustainable solution to invest and produce electricity in Yanbu where the average wind speed is over 8 m/s. However, more research need to be done before installing wind farm for large scale power generation. A socioeconomic study also must be performed before implementing the project on site. 5. Discussion Most of the countries in the world including KSA rely severely on coal, oil and natural gas which is the main cause of CO2 emissions and global warming. However, in 2015, the representatives of more than 100 countries met to sign the Paris convention to limit carbon dioxide and naphtha emissions [13-14]. Their goal is to control and limit the global temperature not more than 2 °C per year. KSA is one of the important countries in this treaty for several reasons. Firstly, KSA is the largest crude oil exporter that exports more than 8 million barrels of crude oil daily [15] and consumes more than 3.4 million barrels of crude oil per a day [16]. In addition, in 2014, KSA generated around 494.82 million ton of CO2 emission [17]. Consequently, that makes KSA to be in the 11th rank in the world of CO2 emission. On the other hand, Saudi's electricity consumption is expected to grow twice by 2023 [18]. Therefore, in KSA, CO2 emissions will be increased significantly because of future development and industrialization. For example, in 1990, CO2 emissions were 208 million metric tons while in 2010, CO2 emissions were 468.7 million metric tons. One of the solutions to reduce CO2 emissions is to use renewable energy utilization for electric power generation. KSA utilize more than 3 million barrels per day of domestic oil consumption to provide more than 55 GW of energy [1]. Therefore, KSA is the largest consumer of petroleum in the Middle East and the 6th in the world [2]. In addition, KSA is the first country in the world using crude oil for generating power. Because of the increasing use of crude oil to generate power for domestic consumption, KSA may become an oil importer by 2038 [19]. KSA has recently announced a national development plan ‘the Saudi Vision 2030’ to utilise the natural resources to produce energy. Producing 20% of the total energy from natural sources is one of the vision goals to reduce the reliance of crude oil. The Saudi Vision 2030 is monitored profoundly to fulfil its target through the investment projects to support scientific research or partnering with several advanced countries in renewable energy field. 6. Conclusions and recommendations Although the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, it has the potential to utilize renewable energy sources specially the wind energy for electricity generation. Several locations of the kingdom are suitable for wind power generation in large scale. The Saudi governments can take initiative to install several wind firms in the potential sites by some pilot projects to further investigate the feasibility of wind power generation. Thus, the kingdom will be able to reach its target 20% power generation from renewable energy sources mentioned in the Saudi Vision 2030.
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