- Email: [email protected]
Sales forecasting
Book Reviews to monitor the factors in the environment to which the chosen course of action is sensitive. Thus; if it appears that the environment is moving into, say, Scenario C, from Scenario A, contingency plans can be formulated well ahead of the changing situation becoming critical. This identification and monitoring of key factors has proven to be one of the important benefits of the Scenario approach. CHRISTXNE A. R. !VhCNULTY,Henley-on-Thames
(639)
133
The complexity of most business operations, active in several technologies and markets, also raise the need for more than one set of forecasts. The uncertainty of market factors also requires these sets to be done on a multi-forecast basis i.e. not just one forecast but a series of them have to be made to allow for sudden or unexpected changes in the business environment. These aspects are covered by the book. Flexibility of approach and the need for soundjudgment are stressed, showing that these days, on its own, absolute faith in the academic excellence of techniques is no safeguard!
SalesForecasting, D. L. HURWOOD,E. S. GROSSMAN and E. L. BAILEY, The Conference Bo,ard, New York (1978), 226 pp.B15.OO(associates) and $45.00 (non-associates) (softback).
DOUGLASW. FOSTER,Waking. Surrey
Although this publication is classified as a research report of the Conference Board’s Division of Management Research, it is yet another excellent addition to their range of publications. Like many of its predecessors it combines a very hard practical look at the state of the art, while dealing in some depth with the essential, academic principles and techniques. In this book there are also 24 case studies ranging from a major consumer goods corporation to an equipment manufacturer, a steel company (British Steel Corporation please note?), machine tool manufacturer, a distiller, a publishing company and an international oil corporation. Some &mous names amongst the cases include Cummins Engine, the RCA Corporation, Aluminium Co. of America, the Timken Co., Pfizer, Uniroyal and Rockwell International.
Introducing Corporate Planning, 2nd Edition, D. E. HUSSEY,Pergamon Press, Oxford (1979), 216 pp. L5.00 (hardback).
It is, therefore, a usefLl guide to all those in businesswho are responsible for, or involved in, sales forecasting and also long range (or corporate) pting. The wide spread of casesmakes it possible for readers to find well illustrated examples appropriate to their own types of business. For the newcomer to sales forecasting, or the student, it provides a very thorough study of the subject, managing to deal well with the academic aspects with balanced reviews of the practical points which will be: encountered. The forecasting methods covered are grouped under the headings ‘judgemental forecasting’ (e.g. Delphi and related methods; sales projections by means of Decision Trees), sales force estimations, user’s expectations, traditional time-series analysis (e.g. moving averages; FORAN; trend fitting etc.), advanced time-series analysis (e.g. exponential smoothing; Box-Jenkins models; spectral analysis etc.), econometrics and related methods and input-output analysis. There are chapters also on new product forecasting and long term salesforecasting with a final chapter on multiple-method approaches. Forecasting future sales is never an easy task. Yet it is vital for it tcbe well done if future planning and control of a company’s operations are to be successful. In present economic conditions, with the world heading for a slump which some believe will make the 19201930s seem like a Sunday picnic, with raw material costs rising at terrifying rates-mainly for political ends--the problems facing the sales forecaster and the long range planner, are multiplied. Even the varied selection of methods may not be of much help if detailed knowledge of them, their capabilities and limitations, are not fully appreciated. The inexpert forecaster in particular may end up totally confused. The beauty of this work (Conference Board Report No. 730) is that it deals concisely and clearly with all the factors that must be considered in the sales forecasting task. It states clearly also that the choice of method depends not only on the cost and time permitted for the work. The purpose and importance of the forecast, the availability of relevant information (primary and secondary), the stability of the data series to be forecasted, the risks involved, the penalties that will arise from poor forecasting, how far into the future the forecasts have to extend and the skill, experience and ingenuity of the forecasters are all considered.
(654)
The appearance of a second edition of Hussey’s introductory book of 1971 on corporate planning speaks well for the acceptauce of his efforts and the manner of their presentation. It also serves to underline that the fundamentals of the subject have changed little during the 8 year period between the two editions; in an aphorism, ‘LRP is just the same, only more so’. The book is best known as a very readable and comprehensive primer, written by an author who has had much practical experience in a diversity of organizations-good coverage but for depth one would look elsewhere to such as Ansoff and Steiner, aud the more sophisticatedversions on plam+ by Argenti and indeed by Hussey himself. A page by page comparison with the original edition shows numerous amendments and updatings; for example the models of total planning processes, including that of the Rolls-Royce organization, and the titling of Human Resources instead of Personnel Planning. Probably the major amendment is the inclusion of a chapter on ‘A Portfolio Approach to Strategy’ based on thenow well known matrix analysis of ‘phase-in and phase-out’. No doubt many planners were weaned on such publications as Hussey’s first edition and the second will help to continue the process. It is easily understandable by the planner and the generalist. Within its scope it succeeds well and can be recommended with little or no reservation. H. JONES
(653)
BOOKS RECEIVED How to Solve the Mismmurgcment Crisis, ICHAI)AD=, Dow Jones & Irwin, Homewood, Illinois & Transatlantic Book Service Ltd., London (1979), 281 pp. LlO.45 (hardback). Received November 1979. (651) Aspects of Social Security Benefits 1979-1980, K. D. BARTLJZT,50 pp. A3.50. (652) VATfor Businessmen,A. ST. JOHNPRICE,27 pp. Ll.20.
(655)
Financial Plunning_/& Clients, E. K. WRIGHT and A. B. TAPPIN, 72 pp. E3.95. (663) Unfair Dismissal, G. W. ECCLES,27 pp. .&3.00.
(666)
Communicating for Resuhs, J. COURTIS,79 pp. E3.50.
(668)
Managing People, D. F. ROBINSON,79 pp. A2.75.
(669)
Industrial Relations: An Introduction for Accountants, P. MCARTHUR, 90 pp. No price quoted. (674)
(639)
133
The complexity of most business operations, active in several technologies and markets, also raise the need for more than one set of forecasts. The uncertainty of market factors also requires these sets to be done on a multi-forecast basis i.e. not just one forecast but a series of them have to be made to allow for sudden or unexpected changes in the business environment. These aspects are covered by the book. Flexibility of approach and the need for soundjudgment are stressed, showing that these days, on its own, absolute faith in the academic excellence of techniques is no safeguard!
SalesForecasting, D. L. HURWOOD,E. S. GROSSMAN and E. L. BAILEY, The Conference Bo,ard, New York (1978), 226 pp.B15.OO(associates) and $45.00 (non-associates) (softback).
DOUGLASW. FOSTER,Waking. Surrey
Although this publication is classified as a research report of the Conference Board’s Division of Management Research, it is yet another excellent addition to their range of publications. Like many of its predecessors it combines a very hard practical look at the state of the art, while dealing in some depth with the essential, academic principles and techniques. In this book there are also 24 case studies ranging from a major consumer goods corporation to an equipment manufacturer, a steel company (British Steel Corporation please note?), machine tool manufacturer, a distiller, a publishing company and an international oil corporation. Some &mous names amongst the cases include Cummins Engine, the RCA Corporation, Aluminium Co. of America, the Timken Co., Pfizer, Uniroyal and Rockwell International.
Introducing Corporate Planning, 2nd Edition, D. E. HUSSEY,Pergamon Press, Oxford (1979), 216 pp. L5.00 (hardback).
It is, therefore, a usefLl guide to all those in businesswho are responsible for, or involved in, sales forecasting and also long range (or corporate) pting. The wide spread of casesmakes it possible for readers to find well illustrated examples appropriate to their own types of business. For the newcomer to sales forecasting, or the student, it provides a very thorough study of the subject, managing to deal well with the academic aspects with balanced reviews of the practical points which will be: encountered. The forecasting methods covered are grouped under the headings ‘judgemental forecasting’ (e.g. Delphi and related methods; sales projections by means of Decision Trees), sales force estimations, user’s expectations, traditional time-series analysis (e.g. moving averages; FORAN; trend fitting etc.), advanced time-series analysis (e.g. exponential smoothing; Box-Jenkins models; spectral analysis etc.), econometrics and related methods and input-output analysis. There are chapters also on new product forecasting and long term salesforecasting with a final chapter on multiple-method approaches. Forecasting future sales is never an easy task. Yet it is vital for it tcbe well done if future planning and control of a company’s operations are to be successful. In present economic conditions, with the world heading for a slump which some believe will make the 19201930s seem like a Sunday picnic, with raw material costs rising at terrifying rates-mainly for political ends--the problems facing the sales forecaster and the long range planner, are multiplied. Even the varied selection of methods may not be of much help if detailed knowledge of them, their capabilities and limitations, are not fully appreciated. The inexpert forecaster in particular may end up totally confused. The beauty of this work (Conference Board Report No. 730) is that it deals concisely and clearly with all the factors that must be considered in the sales forecasting task. It states clearly also that the choice of method depends not only on the cost and time permitted for the work. The purpose and importance of the forecast, the availability of relevant information (primary and secondary), the stability of the data series to be forecasted, the risks involved, the penalties that will arise from poor forecasting, how far into the future the forecasts have to extend and the skill, experience and ingenuity of the forecasters are all considered.
(654)
The appearance of a second edition of Hussey’s introductory book of 1971 on corporate planning speaks well for the acceptauce of his efforts and the manner of their presentation. It also serves to underline that the fundamentals of the subject have changed little during the 8 year period between the two editions; in an aphorism, ‘LRP is just the same, only more so’. The book is best known as a very readable and comprehensive primer, written by an author who has had much practical experience in a diversity of organizations-good coverage but for depth one would look elsewhere to such as Ansoff and Steiner, aud the more sophisticatedversions on plam+ by Argenti and indeed by Hussey himself. A page by page comparison with the original edition shows numerous amendments and updatings; for example the models of total planning processes, including that of the Rolls-Royce organization, and the titling of Human Resources instead of Personnel Planning. Probably the major amendment is the inclusion of a chapter on ‘A Portfolio Approach to Strategy’ based on thenow well known matrix analysis of ‘phase-in and phase-out’. No doubt many planners were weaned on such publications as Hussey’s first edition and the second will help to continue the process. It is easily understandable by the planner and the generalist. Within its scope it succeeds well and can be recommended with little or no reservation. H. JONES
(653)
BOOKS RECEIVED How to Solve the Mismmurgcment Crisis, ICHAI)AD=, Dow Jones & Irwin, Homewood, Illinois & Transatlantic Book Service Ltd., London (1979), 281 pp. LlO.45 (hardback). Received November 1979. (651) Aspects of Social Security Benefits 1979-1980, K. D. BARTLJZT,50 pp. A3.50. (652) VATfor Businessmen,A. ST. JOHNPRICE,27 pp. Ll.20.
(655)
Financial Plunning_/& Clients, E. K. WRIGHT and A. B. TAPPIN, 72 pp. E3.95. (663) Unfair Dismissal, G. W. ECCLES,27 pp. .&3.00.
(666)
Communicating for Resuhs, J. COURTIS,79 pp. E3.50.
(668)
Managing People, D. F. ROBINSON,79 pp. A2.75.
(669)
Industrial Relations: An Introduction for Accountants, P. MCARTHUR, 90 pp. No price quoted. (674)