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THE FUTURE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY IN ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT J. Cramer and W. C. L. Zegveld

Technology can play a role in solving environmental problems, although structural measures are also required if we are to realize a future sustainable society. This article takes the view that technology can have both positive and negative impacts on the environment, and there is a social dimension to the development and use of technology. Subsequently, how far environmental concerns are being accounted for in the development of specific technologies is discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn regarding the possibilities for bringing future technological progress optimally into line with environmental management, and the drawbacks associated with this.

An important role is assigned to technology for solving the enormous environmental problems. It is hoped that the environmental problems will be contained by developing cleaner production processes and cleaner products. By the 21st century the current industrial production process would have to be modernized to such an extent that it no longer conflicts with ecological criteria. Yet do we have reason to be so optimistic about technology’s possible contribution to solving environmental problems? Is it indeed the panacea for the problem of the environment? This article places such optimism in perspective. We show that technology can indeed play an important role in solving environmental problems. However, a fundamental readjustment of current technological development will be required. And even if technology is from an environmental point of view deployed to optimal effect, technical solutions alone will not suffice to achieve the necessary reduction in the discharge of pollutants. We argue that structural measures will also be needed if in the 21st century we actually wish to realize a sustainable society.

Professor 7300 AM Research,

Dr I. Cramer is with the TN0 Centre for Technology Apeldoorn, the Netherlands. Professor Ing W. C. PO Box 6040, 2600 JA Delft, the Netherlands.

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and Policy Studies, L. Zegveld is with

PO Box 541, TN0 Policy

@ 1991 Butterworth-Heinemann

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To support this statement, we use concrete examples to discuss the current relationship between technology and environmental management and how this relationship might develop in the future in the light of attempts towards a sustainable society. Making this kind of technology assessment is not easy, certainly not for the long term. The relationship between technology and environmental management is ambiguous: technology can have positive and negative effects on the quality of our environment. Computers can, for instance, be used to help control energy consumption in private homes and companies. In terms of the environment, that has a positive value. On the other hand, the industrial production process for the chips which form the core of the computer causes serious pollution. A further difficulty in assessing technology is that no foolproof predictions can be made regarding future technological developments and their consequences for environmental management. The development of technology is not an autonomous process: it is greatly influenced by the social context within which it takes place. In this article we first elucidate further the view of technology outlined above. Subsequently, we discuss, with the aid of concrete examples, how far environmental concerns are currently being taken into account in the development of specific technologies. Finally, we draw conclusions regarding the possibilities for bringing future technological progress into line with environmental management in an optimal way and with regard to the drawbacks attached to this.

View of technology In the debate on the contribution of technology to solving current environmental problems, it seems that optimism has so far prevailed. Particularly in industrial circles, many assume that, since we have taken on board responsibility for the environment, the problems that have arisen can be solved by applying still more technology and better management.l Society has displayed a marked trust in technology. ‘They will find some kind of answer’, is a commonly heard motto. if we consider the way in which technology is actually However, developing in our society, we should at least place this optimism in perspective. It is not a question of pressing a button and instantly finding a technical solution. Following the views of technology researchers like Nelson and Winter,2 and Dosi et a/,j .we regard technological development first as an arduous and time-consuming process of investigation, in which uncertainty plays a large part. Technological development is characterized as a process of ‘trial and error’ which does not automatically produce successful results. It is a learning process in which adaptations are constantly being made in order to adjust a given technology to a specific social environment.J Consequently, technology cannot be freely transferred from one situation to another, but is location-bound. In this process of trial and error not every conceivable technological Different technological variants are tried out (‘the option is developed. variation process’), whereon the most promising innovations are selected (‘the selection process’). The investigation process is therefore very much

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channelled towards those solutions which appear the most successful or directions are seldom advantageous in a competitive sense. 5 Alternative explored. This process of technological development does not take place in a social vacuum but is greatly influenced by economic variables such as and also by all manner of political and prices and market structures, institutional factors such as political culture, employer-employee relations, (environmental) legislation, and the role of social organizations and the general public itself. It follows from the above that the direction and nature of technological development is determined by various clusters of agents in the ‘selection environment’. Some agents will be more instrumental in generating innovations (the variation process), while others will affect the selection of these innovations (the selection process). As to the question of which agents exercise a greater or lesser influence in the different stages of the variation/selection process, scientists are divided. Some claim, for instance, that it is particularly technicians and engineers who ensure that innovations are generated and who consequently play a central part in the variation process of investiprocess.‘j According to other writers, ’ the technological gation is not merely determined by technical engineers, but also by other agents involved in technological development, such as company managers, government officials and consumers. As regards the question of which agents play a dominant part in the selection process, the answers also vary. Some researchers claim that those who make use of technology (the consumer) exercise the greatest influence, while others emphasize, for instance, the role of manufacturers or the government. In short, it seems impossible to say in advance which agents are the most dominant in the variation/selection process. What we can affirm, however, is that technological development can be influenced by various groups of agents in the selection environment. Since these groups often represent opposing interests, it is not easy to reach agreement regarding the technological choices to be made. It therefore costs a great deal of time to make decisions in this respect. Apart from the aforestated reservations regarding optimism about technology, the fact that each technological innovation consists of more than technology alone is also often overlooked. Each technological innovation spells changes in the social context within which the innovation is applied. The introduction of cleaner technology in a production process, for instance, not only entails the development of a new technique but also implies changes in the functions and qualifications of employees, in the organization of the production process, in the relations that the company has with suppliers and clients, etc.8 Another example is the introduction of an electric car. Callon has shown that if one designs an electric car, it will also be necessary to design the context within which such a car is to be used. Government regulations, town planning, research programmes and the market position of the large manufacturers of cars that run on petrol would have to be adapted. To summarize matters, technological development involves more than technology alone; the specific social environment (infrastructure) in which technology is to be applied will have to change and be developed at the same time. Whether the selection environment will change dramatically depends

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very much on how radical is the technological change in question. Generally only gradual shifts occur in the development of technology. People continue to work within existing technological patterns of thought (paradigms). Radical changes in the technological research process are much less common, although they do tend to lead to drastic social and technological changes. According to some writers, such discontinuities in technological development occur in clusters. Examples of such radical or basic innovations are the breakthroughs which laid the foundations for microelectronics, biotechnology and new materials. Among and around these new basic technologies ‘technological revolutions’ are currently taking place which are not only dramatically changing the existing technoindustrial foundations but are also putting pressure on the present socioinstitutional structure to adapt to a new order of production, trade, consumption and communication.1° Whole production chains (also referred to as fi/iPres) of various interrelated commercial and technical stages of production are subject to tremendous changes. In the following we flesh out, on the basis of a number of examples, what the consequences of the above points are for the relationship between technological development and environmental management.

New basic technologies

in relation

During the 1980s people new basic technologies environmental ones. The tions were realized and gies offer for improving aid of three examples:

to environmental

management

had high hopes for the positive contribution that could make in solving social problems, including question remains, however, how far these expectawhat actual possibilities these new basic technoloour environment. We answer this question with the

(1) the influence of information and communication technology on reducing pollution caused by traffic and transport; (2) the contribution of biotechnology towards improving the environment; and (3) developments in the field of new materials in relation to environmental management.

Information

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In view of the continuing developments in the domain of microelectronics, information technology will be playing an increasingly significant part in our society. Notably in the field of computer and communication technology, rapid innovations are to be expected. Such developments can in principle affect environmental management in both positive and negative ways. An unforeseen negative side-effect of the introduction of computers is, for instance, the strong increase in the flood of paper used to transfer information.ll On the other hand computer technology can also have a positive influence on environmental management. Good examples of this

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can be found in the industriat sector (for instance, the use of greatly refined measuring and control techniques, sensors etc). In the early 1980s there were high expectations for the contribution of information technology to environmental management. Alvin Toffler, in his for instance, that information bestseller The Third Wave,12 suggested, technology might reduce automobility, and consequently also the discharge of harmful substances. After all, a computer and a (digital) telephone link make it possible to work at home, hold meetings by telephone, pursue education from a distance, shop and arrange one’s banking from the living room. In practice, however, these positive expectations of the early 1980s have not been confirmed. ff we took first at the current developments in freight transport, these appear to be diametrically opposed to a reduction in energy consumption and to environmental concerns. The general tendency is to bring the flow of goods increasingly in line with the specific wishes of the clients. According to P. J. Tanja and De Leijer, I3 this translates itself into a trend in the direction of smaller and more frequent deliveries (such as ‘just-in-time’ deliveries). The result is a greater number of journeys by smaller vehicles or a lower deployrnent of lorries:14 in other words, greater energy consumption and increasing air pollution per ton of transported freight. Ln addition, Tanja and De teijer argue that the tendency towards further internationalization of production has a negative impact on the environment, as does the trend towards centralization of production facilities and distribution centres. Thus the present structure in freight transport is not at all geared to diminishing, but rather to increasing energy consumption and air pollution. Competitive motives and national differences in regulations form the great impediments to changing this situation. Although the application of technology can make lorries quieter and cleaner, the energy saving to be achieved (estimated at a maximum of 17%) is cancelled out by the anticipated growth in traffic. It is predicted for the Netherlands that national and international freight transport will double in the next 20 years, partly under the influence of the acceleration in European integration.15 A short-term soft&ion to this problem might be to make goods transport by road less attractive. This could be done, inter a&a, in the ‘Austrian way’-by prohibiting goods transport by road at certain times (for instance at night or during weekends] or by increasing the financial burden ffor instance by raising excise, expensive toll roads, road pricing etc). As a consequence of this, a proportion of road transport would probably be taken over by other means of conveyance, such as trains and ships. In effect such a trend is already under way, as witnessed by the increased interest in combined transport (lorries on the train or combined road/water transport). However, it is unlikely that these measures will sufficiently meet the growth in the transport market, unless the government takes drastic action. In order to achieve a better equilibrium in the long term as regards the transport problem and its effect on the environment, the government has three options: (a) first, it can intervene in the developments of the transport market-this means regulating the economy in such a way that transport is reduced, in which case the government will have to stem the trend towards growing specialization and centralization of production; (b) second, the government can promote cooperation between companies in the domain of

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logistics by improving the organizational structure, for instance by creating distribution centres around cities, from where sales centres can be stocked;14 (c) a final possibility might be to develop entirely new modes of transport, for instance systems whereby cars can be linked together (‘convoys’), magnet trains, electrical cars, separate goods and passenger transport systems, underground trams and trains, underground freight transport, etc. If such new methods of transport are to catch on, this will not only require technological innovations, but also fundamental changes in the current social organization and infrastructure. As the example of the electrical car discussed above showed ,I7 technological innovations can only be applied successfully if the social context changes along with them. In order to introduce new modes of transport great social changes will consequently be required. Such a process of adaptation will take years, but will none the less be necessary. If we now reflect on the influence of information technology (especially telecommunications) on traffic and transport in general, we find that, here too, the positive environmental effects are disappointing. One of the few quantitative Dutch studies carried out in this field18 reveals that the impact of telecommunications will only be clearly noticeable after the year 2000 and even then will be moderate, on balance. As a result of, inter a/h, teleshopping, working at home and pursuing education from home, traffic and transport will in 2025 be reduced by at most 15%. On the other hand, however, telecommunications will indirectly cause an increase in the number of kilometres travelled, since they render people more inclined to travel large distances in their free time. Thus telecommunications not only take the place of a certain amount of travel, but also generate new travel. The net effect of these substitution and generation effects is a reduction in the number of kilometres travelled of about 5%. A government that wishes to enhance the positive effects of telecommunications on traffic and transport will therefore have to bolster the substitution effects and stem the generation effects, which is no easy task. It for instance, how far the substitution effects, such as is questionable, can be enhanced. People like to maintain personal working from home, it is an important part of work. Promoting contact with their colleagues; home employment may reduce the motivation of employees and lead to a drop in a company’s productivity. Consequently there is a certain amount of scepticism in business circles regarding home employment. It will also be difficult to reduce the generation effects and, for instance, limit the mobility of people in their free time. This would require unpopular measures, such as setting a limit on the number of automobile kilometres that people cover and the number of holiday flights that can be booked. It is extremely doubtful whether political parties will be willing to A government prepared to intervene will for support such measures. political reasons be wary of controlling mobility too severely. It will consequently be more likely to risk stepping up the use of technology (‘cleaner’ cars and alternative modes of transport) and improving the organization structure of, for example, the transport sector. Although information technology could also be applied in other ways, in practice it is evident that the development of such technology is greatly determined by certain social paradigms.

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Biotechnology Expectations regarding the positive effects of biotechnology on future environmental management tend to be high. In practice, however, it appears that a focused application of biotechnology for environmental purposes is still only taking place to a limited degree. The development of ‘environmental biotechnology’ has thus far concerned in particular supplementary technology which is added to the end of an existing production the biological purificaprocess. I9 The main area of application is currently tion of waste flows (such as the (an)aerobic purification of industrial water, purifying the air with biofilters and cleaning the groundwater in soil sanitization projects). In addition, biotechnological methods of soil improvement also appear to offer significant prospects for purifying polluted soil. Certainly, for easily decomposable substances such as refined oils, aromatic solvents, phenols etc, biodegradation (decomposition by means of microThe removal of pollution which does not organisms) seems successful. decompose easily (for instance chlorinated solvents, lindane, drins etc) is far more problematic, however.20 In order to achieve the necessary reduction in the release of pollutants in the long term, add-on technology will not suffice; the emphasis will have to shift more and more towards process-integrated biotechnology. Such technology must be geared to preventing the creation of environmental pollution. This can also be achieved by means of process-integrated supplements to existing systems which enhance recycling on the spot. There are thought to be good opportunities, in particular, for replacing polluting chemical processes with biological processes, examples being the manufacture of biocatalysts (such as enzymes for detergents), the use of ‘green’ raw materials and the preparation of aromatic substances and flavourings.2’ As regards the positive contribution to environmental management made by biotechnology in other areas of application, notably in agriculture and horticulture, the future is still unclear. In plant improvement, for instance, possibilities are being investigated for developing new plant varieties that contain the desired properties with the aid of genetic manipulation; one might think here for instance of plants with a fungicide/insecticide or nitrogen-fixing effect. But research in this field is developing more slowly than originally anticipated. So far only a few properties have been successfully inserted in plants, including herbicide resistance. The predicted time when large-scale applicaton of genetic manipulation in plant improvement will take place is constantly being moved further away. The specialist literature repeatedly emphasizes the disappointing results of this research, due to, inter alia, the complex nature of the technology applied. Moreover, the progress in this area of research depends very much on the economic need for developing such new varieties and on the degree to which the insertion of these new properties is accepted by society. Some fear that genetically manipulated organisms could multiply rapidly and become a plague, while they might also crossbreed with others.22 So far little is known about the possible risks for the environment of such interference in nature. For the aforementioned reasons, practical application in the field of genetic manipulation in plant improvement is still in its infancy. In the short

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term it is expected that in the Netherlands research into plant improvement will yield more positive results in terms of (biotechnological) studies at the level of cells. For that reason a great deal of research investment is being made in rapid methods of propagation (by means of tissue culture techniques), faster selection methods (selection takes place at the level of cells) and in merging plant varieties at cell-level and ‘somaclonal’ variation (variation within cells). These developments can, though only to a limited degree, have an effect on future environmental management (for instance by enhancing plant utilization of nutrients and by reducing the use of herbicides). With regard to developments in the field of biotechnology in the animal sector, the long-term prospects in relation to environmental management are likewise uncertain. So far, at least, the possible effect does not seem spectacular. Biotechnology can for instance be applied to enhance the digestibility of feed. As a result fewer minerals end up in the environment, yet the contributions which this and other biotechnological techniques can make towards combating the nutrients burden appear insufficient in proportion to the reductions needed.23 If pollution from animal production becomes even more serious, fundamental changes in dietary patterns will have to be implemented. One might think, for instance, of a change-over from animal food or of large-scale industrial production of food that is high in protein and not animal-based. Finally, biotechnology may be able to make a positive contribution to environmental management in the domain of energy production. In Europe there are plans, for example-as there are in Brazil-for producing ethene (basic raw material for energy production) via ethanol from biomass. Or one could even make organisms which can ferment to ethene as the endproduct, so that the relatively expensive step of separating the ethanol from the other aqueous fermentation liquids is no longer necessary. Whether such techniques will be further developed again depends on a host of factors, such as production costs, the scale on which a technique needs to be developed, the prices of competing energy producers, etc. In addition, in the very distant future one might even conceive of making optimal use of solar energy by improving the photosynthesis of plants. In summary, one can conclude that in principle biotechnology can have both positive and negative effects on future environmental management. The immediate negative effects are in particular connected with the possible risk of introducing genetically modified organisms (the recombinant-DNA Certainly until the year 2000, however, technique) into the environment. there are unlikely to be large breakthroughs in the application of this technique. The many other applications in the wide field of biotechnology, as discussed above, will be more influential. Such applications can contribute to future environmental management, although their contribution should not be overestimated. Furthermore, it will also be a long time before these technologies have been fully developed and can be applied on a large scale. Their diffusion is a relatively slow process, as is the case in other areas of technology. How far biotechnology will be deployed to optimum effect for the sake of environmental management will depend very much on the guiding influence of the selection environment, notably the government and the population itself.

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materials

New materials are those materials which have been developed in the past 30 years and which have new combinations of properties.24 We are concerned here, notably, with materials in the following groups-metals, ceramic fibres and composites of these materials. Admittedly materials, polymers, these new materials tend to be stronger, more resistant and more durable in use, but in the waste phase they are often less easily recycled and processed, and they consequently tend to remain in the environment longer.25 A characteristic of these new materials is that they consist of different types of materials, and it is from this composite character that they often derive their unusual properties. Yet this deliberate introduction of impurities and the mixing of different kinds of materials make re-use virtually impossible. As with information and communication technology and biotechnology, the application of new materials can have both positive and negative effects on the environment. The use of, for instance, new and particularly lighter materials in aeroplanes and cars, inter alia, can lead to a decrease in energy consumption and the concomitant discharges. New materials can also play a part in improving environmental techniques, such as for instance waste water purification by means of membranes from new materials. On the other hand the introduction and the growing use of new materials can be detrimental to the environment in novel ways, for example by causing a rise in the quantity of waste material produced, creating new forms of environmental pollution and new waste products. An example is the growing use of synthetics composites in cars .26 Due to steel having been replaced by synthetics composites, the possibility of recycling cars decreases. As this renders the demolition of cars less profitable, scrapyards suffer financially. If nothing were done about this, we would eventually be left with a gigantic mountain of plastic car wrecks for which no financially viable processing method exists.27 In the development of new materials not only commercial criteria have played a part, but most certainly also energy-saving considerations. However, the possibilities for recycling and the prevention of new environmental pollution have been far less important objectives. Gradually this is beginning to change. Increasingly, it is recognized that during the design phase of products and processes, decisions are made which have a great influence on the environmental effects during the entire lifecycle of a product or process. Consequently, there is growing attention for ‘environmentally friendly designs’, which entail integrating the environmental aspect in the design phase of products and processes. This means that in the development of new materials the environmental aspects of the entire chain of materials are taken on board, from the extraction and production of raw materials to the discharge and dissemination in the environment of the resultant waste products. 28 Thus there are indications that in a number of countries the automobile industry is becoming more interested in the environmental aspects connected with its products, notably also for the problems regarding waste material and recycling. BMW, for instance, is engaged in making new car models which can be easily dismantled, so that during the demolition phase recognizable parts can be removed and possibly re-used.

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In conclusion, we can state that so far the environmental criterion has not formed an integral part of the development of new materials. Potentially, however, new materials could make a positive contribution to future environmental management. In order to achieve this the tendency described above in the direction of environmentally friendly objects will have to be persevered with. Society will have to set standards for the environmental quality of new materials which will steer the development of such materials in the right direction. If this happens, new materials that cannot be separated and recycled will in the medium term no longer have a chance.

Assessment

of environmental

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We can conclude that the development and application of the new basic technologies discussed above generally take place without the environmental aspect being taken into account. Potentially, these basic technologies can to a greater or lesser degree contribute positively to future environmental management, but so far the possibilities have not been utilized. Focused guidance by society (the ‘selection environment’) will be needed in order to adjust these basic technologies to optimal effect to environmental management. Despite the potential scope here, the possibilities for applying these basic technologies should not be overestimated. As yet there seems no question of a radical break in the trend from an environmental point of view. Perhaps in the future, partly under the pressure of environmental regulations, technology development will bring about fundamental breakthroughs in the current basic technologies or effect entirely new basic technologies. It would of course be a crucial breakthrough if in the technical domain an environmentally friendly source of energy were to be developed. After all, many environmental problems (particularly waste streams and incineration processes) could be greatly reduced if clean energy were available. Although nuclear fusion may serve this purpose, the prospects are uncertain, both technologically/commercially speaking and in terms of environmental facets. Less conspicuous, but possibly quite spectacular are the developments at the level of molecules. Might we perhaps develop substances in which the environmental component already forms an inherent part? Is nanotechnology (in which products and material goods can be manufactured molecule by molecule through computer control) mere science fiction or not?29 However, even if such technical breakthroughs take place, the possible resultant applications will not necessarily be used. It will be at least some dozens of years before society is able to adapt, assuming it is willing to do so. It requires radical changes in existing socioinstitutional and economic structures for such technological changes to take root in society. Therefore speculations regarding the impact on the environment of possible fundamental breakthroughs in the current basic technologies or in the creation of entirely new basic technologies are premature.

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In search of clean technology The above examples show that development of the current new basic technologies has not been geared to environmental facets, or only to a limited extent. With a view to achieving a sustainable society, the integration of technology and environmental management will have to be greatly stimulated. In this context, one step in the right direction is the stimulation of environmental technology. This is a collective term covering a wide range of techniques, processes and products which help prevent or limit the burden on the environment. Within environmental technology a distinction can be made between clean technology and cleaning technology. Cleaning technology removes pollutants from waste streams, which prevents the diffusion of those substances in the environment. One might think, for instance, of the use of supplementary purification technology (‘end-of-pipe’ technology), such as dust and grease interceptors, washing devices, filters etc. Also included are the processing of collective waste flows (waste incineration, dumping, composting etc), the removal and isolation of pollution in the environment and the focused application of residue substances (external re-use). However, in many cases the application of cleaning technologies leads to transplanting the environmental problem from, for instance, the compartment of water to that of the soil or air. The pollution is not essentially avoided. In clean process-integrated technology however, this is in fact achieved, as already pointed out in the discussion of the developments within environmental biotechnology. Of what, exactly, should ‘clean technology’ consist? A first step is to optimize the existing process. For a given process technology, measures can be taken to work in a cleaner way, for instance by adjusting machines properly, ensuring the correct dosages of chemicals, regular maintenance etc. This kind of ‘good housekeeping’ can in itself already benefit the environment considerably. Yet in order to realize more drastic reductions in the discharge of pollutants, more fundamental changes will have to be introduced in the production process and the product composition. We must think here of the following process-integrated measures:30 improvement of the process applied. For a given product composition, the process technology is chosen in such a way that the product is manufactured in the cleanest possible fashion. This might involve: (1) cutting back the use of water, by means of, inter alia, better or alternative dehydration or drying techniques; (2) curbing the use of energy and raw materials by improving the design of processes and machinery; (3) reducing discharges into the air by developing process-integrated flue-gas cleaning techniques and filter systems aimed at rechannelling substances into the production process (if possible in conjunction with energyregeneration systems); and (4) reducing waste discharges by developing detection and separation machinery for undesirable substances and by recycling and purifying process water. Changing the raw/ancillary materials. For a given product, raw and ancillary materials can be chosen which create the smallest possible burden on the environment. It is also important to replace the supplemented ancillary materials by means of physics techniques (for instance

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UV radiation instead of the administration of biocide). All these cases tend to involve changes which are specific to a particular line of industry. In some cases it concerns changes in raw/ancillary materials which are of significance to several lines of industry, such as the development of solvent-free inks and paints and heavy metal-free pigments. Changes in the product. Products can be designed in such a way that negative environmental effects are avoided as much as possible in the phases of production and consumption, while in the waste phase durable material can be retrieved and the possibilities for re-use are optimal. This ‘environmentally friendly method of designing’ has already been discussed in relation to the development of new materials. Internal re-use. Waste flows can be rechannelled into the process flow. In order to realize this, it is essential to develop technologies which can re-extract used raw materials.

The transition described above from cleaning to clean technology is not an absolute one, but occurs according to a sliding scale from more curative to more preventive measures. In practice, moreover, there is often no ‘either-or’ choice. Even in the application of clean technology, the use of cleaning technology will frequently remain necessary. In order to avoid misunderstandings it is therefore better to speak of cleaner rather than clean technology. Companies so far have concentrated particularly on the application of cleaning technology, and to a lesser degree on cleaner technology by means In order to meet the required environof process-integrated measures. mental standards, companies have tended to prefer applying ‘end-of-pipe’ technology and delivering up the combined waste streams for processing. In the short term this has seemed to reduce the financial risks and socioorganizational problems of adaptation to a minimum. In order to effect a shift within companies towards more prevention-oriented technology, various obstacles will consequently have to be removed, both in the development (innovation) and in the diffusion of cleaner technologies.3l Thus, the know-how regarding possibilities for applying cleaner technologies will have to be improved within the polluting companies themselves and within the environmental production sector (the suppliers of environmental products and services). It is even more important, however, to initiate a process of change in the attitudes of companies, whereby it should become self-evident that production must take place in the cleanest possible way. In this process it will be discovered that the application of cleaner technology is certainly not always a more expensive alternative, as is often assumed. Quite the contrary. There are several examples of companies which have even profited from investing in process-integrated measures. Thus the application of the ‘pollution prevention pays’ principle has already led to success stories for a number of US companies. Companies such as 3M, Dow Chemical, Du Pont and Chevron have managed to reduce discharges by 50% to sometimes as much as 90% by changing the raw materials and manufacturing processes used.32 The time that it took them to recoup their investments in cleaner technology was short, moreover-from less than one year to about three years. The investments even meant saving on costs. 3M, for instance, made a profit of $420 million on such invest-

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ments in the period 1976-87. A crucial element in this was the great commitment of both management and employees to putting pollution prevention into practice within the company. If social concern about the environment continues to grow, such examples will probably no longer be exceptional in the future. Companies that fail to invest in cleaner technology will be unable to survive. Their polluting products will be swept away by competition on the market. Forward-looking companies are already aware of their environmental responsibility and have adjusted their business strategy accordingly. If we wish to achieve a sustainable society in the 21st century, all companies will have to adjust their ideas and methods in a similar way. If they refrain from doing so (sufficiently), governments will in the future have to make decisions as regards putting a stop to certain economic activities that pollute the environment. It is difficult to estimate the potential reductions in discharges which may be achieved by means of preventive technology. The US Congressional Office of Technology Assessment Report on ‘Serious Source Reduction’,33 predicts that it is possible to achieve 50% reductions in environmentally unsafe products within just five years. Such estimates are in themselves open to debate, for the question whether a sustainable system of re-use can be introduced and cleaner production processes and products can be developed depends very much on the degree to which it is feasible in terms of technology, economics and social organization. If external re-use is optimized, this could, besides cleaner production, lead to considerable reductions in discharges. In addition, a host of political/economic and general social factors play a part here. Of great influence, for instance, will be the extent to which various groups within and outside industry apply pressure to effect cleaner production .34 Developments at the EC and international levels, both economically and culturally, will also be determining factors. Potential reductions in discharges by means of cleaner technology will consequently depend on both technical and a variety of social factors. Although it is therefore impossible to give exact figures regarding potential reductions in discharges which may be achieved through the application of cleaner technology, estimates can of course be made, certainly at the level of branches of industry, assuming certain social developments take place. Considering the experiences in the application of cleaner technology in the Netherlands and abroad (notably in the USA), it can be expected that reductions in discharges of between 50% and 70% will certainly be realistic. Even more extensive reductions could be effected if focused adjustments are made in terms of the types of products permitted on the market. Governments could on environmental grounds prohibit certain products or polluting substances which until now have been allowed. In anticipation of such government regulations, companies could themselves take the lead here and begin to act in a guiding fashion. In summary, we can conclude that the application of cleaner technology can most certainly lead to a considerable decrease in environmental pollution. If companies embark on this process, however, this will not only require technical adjustments, but also radical changes in the socio-organizational structure within companies (such as changes in the quality of

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labour) and in the production structures (such as changes in the relations between suppliers and clients).j5 However, the question remains whether the application of cleaner technology can in the longer term achieve reductions in discharges which will sufficiently benefit the environment. This is doubtful, certainly if the scale of production continues to expand. The rich countries, which constitute one-quarter of the world population, annex 80-85% of the fossil energy and raw materials sold each year. If we are to assume that the poorer countries (including Eastern Europe) will step up their level of consumption further, the deployment of fossil energy and raw materials will increase considerably. According to the Brundtland report, Our Common Future, 36 the world population will in 2050 be two-and-a-half times as large as it is today. In order to bring that population to the same level of prosperity as we have in Western society, production at world level will have to be ten times as large. This figure will be even higher if we assume, as does the Dutch Centraal Planbureau (Central Planning Bureau), that the level of consumption will rise further. The Dutch Central Planning Bureau predicts that the purchasing power of the average Dutch citizen will rise by 70% in the period up to 2010.3Y With such a rise in the level of incomes, an incredible reduction in discharge levels and waste flows per product unit would have to be realized to achieve the aim of a sustainable society. For the moment, this does not seem realistic, Other, drastic measures will then be unavoidable, such as imposing restrictions on the rise in the scale of production and the growth of the freely disposable income of the consumer. Consequently, we will also have to move towards new technological systems which are optimally geared to enhancing the quality of our environment. Only then can we actually speak of a trend-breakthrough in the direction of a sustainable society.

Social influence

on technology

In order to adjust technological development to sustainable progress in an optimal way, guiding impulses from society will be required. Without such guidance, there is a great chance that the innovation and diffusion of cleaner technology will take effect too slowly, and that technological developments will move forward in a general way, without taking proper account of environmental facets. In view of the growing concern about the environment it is likely, however, that various social agents will step up the pressure to exert this kind of guiding influence on technological development. One first important agent to be involved in this process of guidance is the government. The more the idea of sustainable development begins to occupy a central place, the more the government will focus on stimulating environmental management and cleaner technology and on integrating will be technological development in general. This means the government designing policy instruments which will in more immediate ways than has thus far been the case offer guidance regarding products and methods of production. What kind of policy instruments should one think of here? First, the government can make agreements with the various lines of

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June 1991

industry regarding the dates by which reductions in discharges are to be realized. If this is unsuccessful, companies will be faced with the prospect of more drastic mea,sures. Experience has taught that strict regulations can indeed lead to the desired coupled with flexible implementation changes. Above all, companies need long-term security. Qffering security leads to adjustments in expectations and behaviour in the required direction. tn this way the government can, as it were, ‘force’ the introduction of cleaner technology. above, can be combined well Setting norms in phases, as mentioned with imposing the ~bt~~at~on on companies to draw up preventive plans in connection with the ~r?troduct~un of a system of ‘environmental aud~tj~g~ (screening a company in terms of en~~ronn~e~tal aspects) and the public+ tion of an env~r~~rn~ntaj annual report which is inspected by an ‘environResearch institutes can play an important part as mental accountant’. mediator (independent third party) in this W!ICI~? process. Currently, research institutes have not yet been assigned such a role. If this were to happen, it would be of great importance that these institutes are actually independent and not too directly affiliated with one of the two parties (industry or the government). Second, the government can promote cleaner technology by imposing carefully focused levies on techniques, products, raw materials or social activities which pollute the environment. If such levies are to be effective, they will have to meet certain conditions, however. The levies must be sufficiently high, they must be geared towards Lang-~errn environmental and technological policy and the revenue deriving from these levies must again be deployed for the promotion of cleaner technology. This revenue can, for instance, be used for temporary grants to those companies that are prepared to develop or apply new environmental techtliques.38 In order to give companies a redI chance of fundamentally adapting their production processes, these levies will have to be introduced in phases. Just as in the case of the aforementioned aims to reduce discharges, the government will have to be equally uncompromising in the implementation of the levies. Apart from the government’s task of setting norms, companies themselves wifl also have to assume a more active role in the development of cleaner technology and environmental policy in general. ~artjcularly in a heavily ~ndustrialj~ed and densely populated country like the Netherlands, industry will have to take the lead in steering towards effective changes in production and in consumer patterns. This trend has already been set in motion. Of course, given the commercial interests, it would be going too far to speak of actual trend-breaks yet, but at least the first steps appear to have been taken. This is shown by, inter alia, the initiatives of companies to construct a system of environmental care afld to appoint one or more environmental coordinators for this purpose, although up to now these environmental coordinators have in practice been engaged mainly in monitoring the observance and implementation of environment legislation. They tend to focus less (or not at all] on integrating environmental care with the strategic planning of companies.- 39 In order to achieve a sound integration of technological d~~~~~~rn~~~ and environmental management within a company, such a focus will, howeever, be necessary. If companies fail to act themselves, they will probably be urged to do so

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466

The future

role

of

technology

in envjron~enf~l

management

by third parties. The FNV (Dutch Trade Union Association), for instance, is already talking of possibilities for drawing up manufacturing agreements in collective labour agreements to provide for certain environmental matters. A precedent is the clause in the collective labour agreement for the construction industry prohibiting the processing of asbestos.‘+0 Apart from employee organizations, insurance companies, for example, will also start playing a guiding role in the strategic planning of companies. Since governments are increasingly tending to hold companies liable for environmental damage, insurance companies are being forced to include a variety of environmental risks in their insurance policies. They will only do this if strict environmental provisions exist {thorough environmental inspections, etc). This will strongly influence the environmental behaviour of companies. Finally, public opinion will also have a significant influence on the conduct of industry. If concern about the environment continues to grow, consumers will set increasingly high standards for the environmental quality of the products that they buy. Eventually this might well become one of the chief means of putting pressure on industry to stimulate cleaner production. Companies that cause serious pollution will acquire such a bad image that their chances of survival will be jeopardized. To realize a sustainable society, such focused ‘mobilization’ of public opinion is essential. After all, to achieve the necessary restructuring of our economy, central government control will not suffice. Structural solutions to environmental problems demand an active input from the public. In this mobilization of public opinion, consumer and environmental organizations play an important part. They can influence consumer behaviour by for instance giving the public pointed information on the environmental quality of food and consumer goods. Consumers can only act in an environmentally aware fashion if they have the correct product information. They must therefore be given the right to adequate information, while also being able to exercise an influence on what is produced and the methods of production. In practice it has been shown that in countries where the democratic content is high in this regard (for instance in Sweden and in certain states in the USA, including California), environmental policy is developed in the most fruitful way. The mobilizing effect which other groups, besides consumer and manage to achieve will to a strong degree environmental organizations, determine whether, and, if so, how technological development can be positively utilized in the interest of environmental management. Above all it will depend on this mobilizing effect whether a real breakthrough in the existing trend will occur towards a sustainable society. So far, society has placed too much trust in technology’s capacity to find solutions. If we wish to see a significant improvement in the quality of the environment in the 21st century, this will mean actively steering technology along the right lines. Society itself will have to ensure that technological development is brought in line with environmental management in an optimal way. If it takes this challenge seriously, this could make an important contribution to realizing a sustainable society in the 21st century. Notes and references I.

E. J. Tuininga,

‘Nieuwe

basistechnologie&n:

oplossing

of probleem voor bet milieu?’ (‘New

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The future

6.

7.

8.

9.

IO.

11. 12. 13.

14. 15.

16. 17. 18.

19.

20.

21. 22. 23.

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in environmental

management

467

basic technologies: a solution or a problem for the environment?‘), in H. Vollebergh (editor), Milieu & lnnovatie (Groningen, Wolters-Noordhoff, 1989), pages 29-48. R. R. Nelson and S. C. Winter, ‘In search of a useful theory of innovation’, Research Policy, 6, 1977, pages 36-76. C. Dosi ef a/, Technical Change and Economic Theory, (London and New York, Pinter Publishers, 1988). N. Rosenberg, inside the Black Box, Technology and Economics (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1982). J. S. Metcalfe and M. Boden, ‘Strategy, paradigm and evolutionary change’, paper prepared for the workshop ‘Processes of knowledge accumulation and the formulation of technology strategy’, ‘Rosnaes’, Zealand, Denmark, 20-23 May 1990. Nelson and Winter, op tit, reference 2; C. Dosi, ‘Technological paradigms and technological trajectories: a suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technological change’, Research Policy, 77, 1982, pages 147-162. Including W. E. Bijker, ‘The social construction of Bakelite: toward a theory of invention’, in W. E. Bijker, T. P. Hughes and T. Pinch, The Social Construction of Technological Systems; New Directions in the Sociology and History of Technology-. (Cambridge, MA, and London, MIT Press, 1987), pages 159-19~: I. Cramer and I. Schot, Problemen rond lnnovatie en Diffusie van Milieutechnoloaie; Een Programmering&die Verricht vanuit een Technologie-dynamica Perspectief (‘Pyoblems surrounding the innovation and diffusion of environmental technology; a programming study conducted from a technology dynamics perspective’), (Rijswijk, Advisory Council for Research on Nature and Environment (RMNO), 1990), English summary included; R. Kemp and L. Soete, ‘Inside the “green box”: on the economics of technological change and the environment’, in C. Freeman and L. Soete (editors), New Explorations in the Economics of Technological Change (London and New York, Pinter Publishers, 1990). M. Callon, ‘The sociology of an actornetwork: the case of the electric vehicle’, in M. Callon, J. Law and A. Rip, Mapping the Dynamics of Science and Technology (London, Macmillan, 1986), pages 19-34. C. Perez, ‘Microelectronics, long waves and world structural change: new perspectives in developing countries’, World Development, Spring 1985, pages 441-463; A. J. M. Roobeek, Fen Race zonder Finish; De Rol van de Overheid in de Technologiewedloop (‘A race without a finish; the role of the government in the technology race’), (Amsterdam, VU Uitgeverij, 1988). A. de Boer, ‘Hoogste investeringen voor milieu in papierindustrie’ (‘Highest environmental investments in the paper industry’), Ingenieurskrant, 5 October 1989. A. Toffler, The Third Wave (New York, William Morrow/Bantam Books, 1980). P. T. Tanja and H. F. W. J. de Leijer, Logistiek, Energie en Milieu; Een Verkenning van Opties in Logistiek en Transport ter Vermindering van Energiegebruik en Luchtverontreiniging (‘Logistics, energy and environment; an exploration of options in logistics and transport to reduce energy consumption and air pollution’), (Delft, Institute of Spatial Organisation (INRO)/TNO, June 1989). Ibid. J. van der Meer, ‘Mobiliteit vrachtvervoer anders organiseren voor schoner milieu’ (‘Alternative organisation of freight transport mobility for cleaner environment’), PolyTechnisch Weekblad, (26), 28 June 1990, page 5. Ibid. Callon, op tit, reference 9. E. Mot et al, De Invloed van Telecommunicatie op Verkeer en Vervoer; Gevolgen voor Energie en Milieu (‘The influence of telecommunication on traffic and transport; consequences for energy and the environment’), (Apeldoorn/Utrecht, TNO/NOVEM, May 1989). F. Langeweg and J. Brinkman, ‘Biotechnologie als megatrend voor het oplossen van milieuproblemen?’ (‘Biotechnology as mega-trend for solving environmental problems?‘), Biotechnologie in Nederland, 7 (3), 1990, pages 71-72. E. R. Soczo and K. Visscher, ‘De ontwikkeling van biotechnologische bodemsaneringstechnieken’ (‘The development of biotechnological soil improvement techniques’), Afvalbeheer, I, 1986, pages 23-28. Langeweg and Brinkman, op tit, reference 19. L. Reijnders, ‘Recombinant-DNA in het milieu’ (‘Recombinant DNA in the environment’), Milieu, 3, 1986, pages 97-98. N. 1. P. Hoogervorst and M. J. G. van Onna, fen Schonere Landbouw door Biotechnologie? Een Programmeringsstudie (‘A cleaner agriculture through biotechnology? A programming study’), (Rijswijk, Advisory Council for Research on Nature and Environment (RMNO), in press).

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24.

25. 26.

27. 28. 29. 30.

31. 32.

33. 34.

35. 36. 37.

38.

39.

40.

The future

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in environmental

management

K. van den Berg et al, Nieuwe Materialen en Milieu; het Milieuprofiel a/s Methode voor het Inschatten van Milieu-effecten van Nieuwe Materialen (‘New materials and the environment; the environmental profile as a method of assessing environmental effects of new materials’), (Groningen, University of Groningen, Science and Society seminar, 1989). H. van Weenen, Zelfgemaakte Toekomst; Milieu-aspecten van Nieuwe Materialen (‘Selfmade future; environmental aspects of new materials’), (Rijswijk, RMNO, 1988). B. van Weenen, P. C. G. Langeveld, K. Meiling and H. Verhagen, Milieu-aspecten van Nieuwe Materialen in Personenauto’s (‘Environmental aspects of new materials in passenger cars’), Report no 738703001 (Delft/Bilthoven, TN0 (SCM0 and CPM)/RIVM, June 1989). P. Vergragt and P. Groenewegen, ‘De uitdaging van nieuwe materialen’ (‘The challenge of new materials’), Wetenschap en Samenleving, 8, 1987, pages 3-10. Van Weenen, op tit, reference 25. M. Dowie, ‘Brave new tiny world’, California, November 1988, pages 91-96 and 148-151. J. Cramer, J. Zeevalkink, J. W. Assink and C. L. van Deelen, Verkenning van Potenti@/e Onderzoekthema’s binnen het IOP-Milieutechnologie op het Terrein van Procesgeihtegreerde Technologieen (‘Exploration of potential research themes within IOP environmental technology in the field of process-integrated technologies’) (Leidschendam, Publications Series of the Ministry of Housing, Physical Planning and Environment, 1990). Cramer and Schot, op tit, reference 8; Kemp and Soete, op tit, reference 8. J. S. Hirschhorn, ‘The new environmental protection: technology exists to prevent pollution’, Pollution Engineering, November 1987, pages 62-64; G. Karras, ‘Pollution prevention: the Chevron story’, Environment, 31(8), 1989, pages 4-5; D. Kirkpatrick, ‘Environmentalism: the new crusade’, Fortune, 12 February 1990, pages 24-29. Office of Technology Assessment, Serious Reduction of Hazardous Waste (Washington, DC, USGPO, 1986). J. Cramer, J. Schot, F. Van den Akker and G. Maas Geesteranus, ‘Stimulating cleaner technologies through economic instruments: possibilities and constraints’, UNEP industry and Environment, 13(2), 1990, pages 46-53. Cramer and Schot, op tit, reference 8. World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future, (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1987). Ministries of Housing, Physical Planning and Environment/Economic Affairs/Agriculture and Fisheries/Transport and Public Works, Nationaal Milieubeleidsplan (‘National Environmental Policy Plan’), (The Hague, SDU, 1989). P. Glasbergen, ‘Beleidsnetwerken rond milieuproblemen. Een beschouwing over de relevantie van het denken in termen van beleidsnetwerken voor het analyseren en oplossen van milieuproblemen’ (lecture), (‘Policy networks regarding environmental problems. A reflection on the relevance of thinking in terms of policy networks for analysing and solving environmental problems’), (The Hague, VUGA, 1989). j. Schot, ‘Contouren van een milieutechnologiebeleid’ (‘Contours of an environmental technology policy’), in H. Vollebergh (editor), Milieu & lnnovatie (Croningen, WoltersNoordhoff, 1989), pages 51-70. K. Cornelisse, ‘Maatschappij accepteert op den duur sterk vervuilende bedrijven niet meer’ (‘Society will eventually stop accepting companies that seriously pollute the environment’), PT/Aktueel, (51/52), 1989, page 13.

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