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Wind farm progress in Denmark
WREC 1996
WIND FARM PROGRESS IN DENMARK
Sten Frandsen and Per D. Andensen Rise National Laboratory Postbox 49, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark
ABSTRACT The paper presents a status of wind power in Denmark and on the technical and industrial achievements. The present total installed capacity is be the end of 1995 approx. 630 MW, and the contribution to the electric energy generation in Denmark is approx. 4%. This presentation is to a large extent based on Andersen 1995a and Andemem 1995b.
STATUS OF WIND ENERGY TECHNOLOGY The technology related to grid-connected wind turbines is becoming mature. Wind energy conversion technology exists in a range of sizes and for a range of applications. Commercially available, directly grid connected, horizontal axis wind turbines have grown in size from 50 kW in the early 198O’ies to 500800 kW today. A new generation of commercial wind turbines in the 1000 - 1500 kW size are being developed and tested and expected to reach the market in 1996. The concept of a most cost-effective size of wind turbine has been discussed extensively, but conclusive evidence of the existence of an optimum size is still lacking. Such grid connected wind turbines are often placed in clusters - wind farms - each operated as individual power plants. Plant sizes have increased from a few MW in early 1980’ties to tens or hundreds of MW presently. Many different design concepts are in use, the most frequent being three-bladed, stall or pitch regulated, horizontal axis machines operating at near-f& rotational speed. Other concepts present promising advantages, such as gearless designs and variable rotor speed designs. European companies are leading in exploitation of these possibilities. For the conventional designs, reliability is now high, reaching technical availabilities of typically 98-99 % . The technology and software (e.g. the European Wind Atlas and the computer code WASP developed by Rise National laboratory) for evaluating the available wind resource is now available. In Europe (and thus in Denmark) the European Community has played a key role by funding the research leading to these tools. In several other regions of the World specific wind energy resource assessments have been carried out. European developed siting-software are now being employed on a regular basis for identification of the most energetic wind turbine sites. Predictability of energy production is of great technical and financial importance. Currently, the uncertainty of wind power plants energy production is of the order of lo-15 % and hence there is a need for further improvement.
848
WFtEC 1996 GLOBAL MARKETS At the time of preparation of this paper information on the year 1995 was only to some extent available. Therefore, the statistics presented end with 1994. Thus, at the end of 1994 global installed capacity of modem grid connected wind turbines was some 3700 MW, of which 1700 MW was in USA, and 1650 MW was in Europe. The worldwide annually added capacity of wind power is rapidly increasing; from 541 MW in 1993 to 740 MW in 1994, of which approx. 450 MWlyear in Europe (90 MW in Denmark). The worldwide added capacity in 1995 is estimated to 1200 MW. With an approximate cost of 1 MECU per MW of installed wind power, the World market in 1995 had a value of 1200 MECU. Active governmental implementation programs are found in Europe, USA, China, India, Canada and a number of other countries. More than 10 major European banks, more than 20 European utilities as well as a large number of individual persons - with more than 100,000 in Denmark alone - have invested in wind energy. Several international organizations have made estimates of the future wind power implementation. World Energy Council, WEC 1993, made two scenarios for wind power installations in year 2020. In a “Current Policy” scenario WEC estimates 180 GW of installed wind power capacity by 2020 (ii/z % of the Worlds electricity demand). In an “Ecologically Driven Scenario” WEC estimates wind energy will provide 5 % of the Worlds electricity demand by 2020, corresponding to 470 GW of installed wind power capacity. EUROPEAN INDUSTRY AND EMPLOYMENT The total turn-over in Europe’s wind power industry was approximately MECU 450 in 1994 and the number is steadily increasing. An estimated 20,000 europeans are employed in the European wind power activities, of these about 8,000 in Denmark, primarily in the wind turbine industry and its supporting industry. Approximately 90 % of the World’s manufacturers of medium and large size wind turbines are European. Nearly 50% of the world’s new wind power capacity is produced in Denmark. More than 25 manufacturers are presently serving the European market, but as the industry matures a concentration on some few large companies can be expected. In Germany 85 % of the market was shared by the six largest companies.
STATUS FOR WIND POWER IN DENMARK By end of 1994 Denmark had a total installed wind power capacity of 540 MW distributed on 3700 wind turbines, up by the end of 1995 to approx. 630 MW. The wind energy production in 1994 was 1080 GWh equivalent to approx. 3.5 % of Denmark’s total electricity consumption, which increased to approx 4% in 1995. Table 1 shows the development of wind power installed in Denmark since 1980. Figures for new turbines are based on statistics from the Danish Wind Turbine Manufacturers’ Association on turbines sold in Denmark. Figures for accumulated capacity are based on the Danish utilities’ associations statistics on grid connected turbines. Figures for years before 1983 are estimated by the Danish Utilities’ Association. Also the figures for 1994 are estimates. Because a number of turbines each year are decommissioned for different reasons the capacity of new machines is larger than the growth in accumulated capacity. The Danish installation rate has decreased from 81 MW in 1990 to 29 MW in 1993; the lowest since 1985. The depression in the early 199O’ies has several explanations. 849
WREC 1996 First, private wind energy facilities are typically owned either by individuals (such as farmers or companies) or by partnerships with personal liability of the partners. From 1986 legislation states that the connection to the national grid is conditioned on the owners addresses and consumption of electricity. A wind turbine owner must live close to the turbine site (same or neighboring municipality). Furthermore, a partner can as a maximmn own a part of a turbine corresponding to his annual consumption + 50% or 9000 kWh. Consequently, a project of three 500 kW turbines, typically needs between 250 and 300 households as partners. This sometimes can be difficult to achieve in less populated municipalities. This limitation in the right to establish private wind energy facilities is based on the wish that, as long as considerable grants are available through the subsidy to the purchasing price, a private commercial possibility of speculation in the expansion of wind energy facilities should be avoided. At present the subsidy per kWh is a tax redemption of 0.27 DKK.
r
Year
Table 1. Installed wind power in Denmark 1980-1994. New New I turbiies PW4ate
Turbines New
I Ave. I No. of
capacity size + Util.
ACCUtN tdated wind turbine s
I PnvateI Ut$. I Total
Secondly, the utilities’ payment for wind electricity follows their own production cost on coal fired power plants. For different reasons this cost has decreased over the last years, pulling the wind electricity payment down. Consequently, this has limited the number of potentially feasible private projects. Only projects on good windy sites, with easy grid connection possibilities have been feasible. And thirdly, a general uncertainty about the future development in the sale price for wind power electricity has played a role. The Government acknowledged that the rate of installation was unacceptably low, and a number of initiatives were taken in 1993 to revitalize the wind power program: 1) municipality wind turbine planning, 2) updating economy survey of privately owned wind turbines, 3) in-depth survey of the social value (external costs) of wind power, 4) chart of conditions for installing off-shore wind turbines, 5) promotion of small wind turbines (so-called “household” turbines), and finally 6) a program for replacement of old or misplaced wind turbines with new machines. These and other initiatives has partly led the installation-rate back on the track from the last quarter of 1994, and in 1994 and 1995 totals of 50 and 90 MW of wind power, respectively, were installed.
WREC 1996 EVALUATION
OF ‘IRE EFFORT
As a result of the Governments energy policy the installed capacity of modem grid connected wind turbines by the end of 1994 was over 500 MW, which is about a third of the informal target of 1500 MW in year 2005. This 10 % supply fraction of wind energy can be fed into the Danish grid without special precautions with respect to power quality and grid stability. At present it is also estimated, that such a wind power supply fraction can be raised to as much as 15-20 % without special precautions. as stated, the technology related to grid-connected wind turbines is becoming mature. In Table 2 some key figures indicates this development. The source of Table 2 is the company E&M-Data, which prepares a national database on wind turbines in Denmark. For each year of wind turbines the database include a large fraction of the turbines. The fraction, year by year, can be seen by comparison between table 1 and table 2. Most new commercial wind turbines at present (1995) are grid connected horizontal axis wind turbines of installed capacities in the range of 200 kW to 600 kW. From table 1 can be seen that the average machine size has grown to 366 kW, implying that the new 450 kW to 600 kW machines now has a substantial share of the market. But the older 200 kW to 250 kW sizes also have an important market share. Hub height for the new generation of 450 kW to 600 kW machines is typically 40 meters, and the rotor diameter is 40 meter.
Table 2. Development of wind power technology in Denmark 1980-1993. wiiial index
19921 1993 I
182 110
1 203.6 1 26.8 1 31.5 1 I 261.5 I 28.6 I 32.0 I
1.53 1.33
192
I
812
I 2295 I 2174
The average “roughness class” indicates the goodness of actual sites. A roughness class 1 in Denmark corresponds to an annual mean wind speed of 5.0 m/s in 10 meter height and roughness class 2 equals 4.4 m/s. The figures indicate that siting of wind turbines in Denmark has improved. However, this development might not continue, because of increased difficulties in finding windy sites without restrictions. The production of the wind turbines is illustrated by the normalized electricity production per m2 swept rotor area and per kW generator capacity. The production is normalized to an “average wind year”. The improvement seen from table 2 is due to more efficient rotors, better siting, and higher towers.
851
WREiC 1996 Additional to such technical improvements the Danish wind power programs have over the years contributed to development of an internationally competitive wind power industry. The effect on employment in industry and increase in export has been important spin-offs from the Government’s wind energy policy. Danish surveys estimate wind power’s employment per MW of installed capacity to be approximately 7 man-years directly in the wind power industry (including service and maintenance staffs). To this must be added employment in the supply and construction industries, consultants, research etc., adding up to approx. 10 man-years pr. MW. In 1994 the Danish wind power industry reached a turnover of 2,288 millions DKR with an export rate of 88%, and with share of the World market of nearly 50%. Over 360 MW of wind turbines was produced in 1994.
REFERENCES World Energy Council (1994); New Renewable Energy Resources - Opportunities and Constraints 19902020 July 1993. Andersen, P.D.(ed) et al (1995a). EUREC Agency Wind Energy Position Paper (draft), Riser November 30 1995 (not public). Andersen, P.D. and P.L. Thomsen (1995b). Status and Strategies for the Danish Wind Energy R&D Program, 25th annual AWEA conference, Washington DC, USA March 1995.
852
WIND FARM PROGRESS IN DENMARK
Sten Frandsen and Per D. Andensen Rise National Laboratory Postbox 49, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark
ABSTRACT The paper presents a status of wind power in Denmark and on the technical and industrial achievements. The present total installed capacity is be the end of 1995 approx. 630 MW, and the contribution to the electric energy generation in Denmark is approx. 4%. This presentation is to a large extent based on Andersen 1995a and Andemem 1995b.
STATUS OF WIND ENERGY TECHNOLOGY The technology related to grid-connected wind turbines is becoming mature. Wind energy conversion technology exists in a range of sizes and for a range of applications. Commercially available, directly grid connected, horizontal axis wind turbines have grown in size from 50 kW in the early 198O’ies to 500800 kW today. A new generation of commercial wind turbines in the 1000 - 1500 kW size are being developed and tested and expected to reach the market in 1996. The concept of a most cost-effective size of wind turbine has been discussed extensively, but conclusive evidence of the existence of an optimum size is still lacking. Such grid connected wind turbines are often placed in clusters - wind farms - each operated as individual power plants. Plant sizes have increased from a few MW in early 1980’ties to tens or hundreds of MW presently. Many different design concepts are in use, the most frequent being three-bladed, stall or pitch regulated, horizontal axis machines operating at near-f& rotational speed. Other concepts present promising advantages, such as gearless designs and variable rotor speed designs. European companies are leading in exploitation of these possibilities. For the conventional designs, reliability is now high, reaching technical availabilities of typically 98-99 % . The technology and software (e.g. the European Wind Atlas and the computer code WASP developed by Rise National laboratory) for evaluating the available wind resource is now available. In Europe (and thus in Denmark) the European Community has played a key role by funding the research leading to these tools. In several other regions of the World specific wind energy resource assessments have been carried out. European developed siting-software are now being employed on a regular basis for identification of the most energetic wind turbine sites. Predictability of energy production is of great technical and financial importance. Currently, the uncertainty of wind power plants energy production is of the order of lo-15 % and hence there is a need for further improvement.
848
WFtEC 1996 GLOBAL MARKETS At the time of preparation of this paper information on the year 1995 was only to some extent available. Therefore, the statistics presented end with 1994. Thus, at the end of 1994 global installed capacity of modem grid connected wind turbines was some 3700 MW, of which 1700 MW was in USA, and 1650 MW was in Europe. The worldwide annually added capacity of wind power is rapidly increasing; from 541 MW in 1993 to 740 MW in 1994, of which approx. 450 MWlyear in Europe (90 MW in Denmark). The worldwide added capacity in 1995 is estimated to 1200 MW. With an approximate cost of 1 MECU per MW of installed wind power, the World market in 1995 had a value of 1200 MECU. Active governmental implementation programs are found in Europe, USA, China, India, Canada and a number of other countries. More than 10 major European banks, more than 20 European utilities as well as a large number of individual persons - with more than 100,000 in Denmark alone - have invested in wind energy. Several international organizations have made estimates of the future wind power implementation. World Energy Council, WEC 1993, made two scenarios for wind power installations in year 2020. In a “Current Policy” scenario WEC estimates 180 GW of installed wind power capacity by 2020 (ii/z % of the Worlds electricity demand). In an “Ecologically Driven Scenario” WEC estimates wind energy will provide 5 % of the Worlds electricity demand by 2020, corresponding to 470 GW of installed wind power capacity. EUROPEAN INDUSTRY AND EMPLOYMENT The total turn-over in Europe’s wind power industry was approximately MECU 450 in 1994 and the number is steadily increasing. An estimated 20,000 europeans are employed in the European wind power activities, of these about 8,000 in Denmark, primarily in the wind turbine industry and its supporting industry. Approximately 90 % of the World’s manufacturers of medium and large size wind turbines are European. Nearly 50% of the world’s new wind power capacity is produced in Denmark. More than 25 manufacturers are presently serving the European market, but as the industry matures a concentration on some few large companies can be expected. In Germany 85 % of the market was shared by the six largest companies.
STATUS FOR WIND POWER IN DENMARK By end of 1994 Denmark had a total installed wind power capacity of 540 MW distributed on 3700 wind turbines, up by the end of 1995 to approx. 630 MW. The wind energy production in 1994 was 1080 GWh equivalent to approx. 3.5 % of Denmark’s total electricity consumption, which increased to approx 4% in 1995. Table 1 shows the development of wind power installed in Denmark since 1980. Figures for new turbines are based on statistics from the Danish Wind Turbine Manufacturers’ Association on turbines sold in Denmark. Figures for accumulated capacity are based on the Danish utilities’ associations statistics on grid connected turbines. Figures for years before 1983 are estimated by the Danish Utilities’ Association. Also the figures for 1994 are estimates. Because a number of turbines each year are decommissioned for different reasons the capacity of new machines is larger than the growth in accumulated capacity. The Danish installation rate has decreased from 81 MW in 1990 to 29 MW in 1993; the lowest since 1985. The depression in the early 199O’ies has several explanations. 849
WREC 1996 First, private wind energy facilities are typically owned either by individuals (such as farmers or companies) or by partnerships with personal liability of the partners. From 1986 legislation states that the connection to the national grid is conditioned on the owners addresses and consumption of electricity. A wind turbine owner must live close to the turbine site (same or neighboring municipality). Furthermore, a partner can as a maximmn own a part of a turbine corresponding to his annual consumption + 50% or 9000 kWh. Consequently, a project of three 500 kW turbines, typically needs between 250 and 300 households as partners. This sometimes can be difficult to achieve in less populated municipalities. This limitation in the right to establish private wind energy facilities is based on the wish that, as long as considerable grants are available through the subsidy to the purchasing price, a private commercial possibility of speculation in the expansion of wind energy facilities should be avoided. At present the subsidy per kWh is a tax redemption of 0.27 DKK.
r
Year
Table 1. Installed wind power in Denmark 1980-1994. New New I turbiies PW4ate
Turbines New
I Ave. I No. of
capacity size + Util.
ACCUtN tdated wind turbine s
I PnvateI Ut$. I Total
Secondly, the utilities’ payment for wind electricity follows their own production cost on coal fired power plants. For different reasons this cost has decreased over the last years, pulling the wind electricity payment down. Consequently, this has limited the number of potentially feasible private projects. Only projects on good windy sites, with easy grid connection possibilities have been feasible. And thirdly, a general uncertainty about the future development in the sale price for wind power electricity has played a role. The Government acknowledged that the rate of installation was unacceptably low, and a number of initiatives were taken in 1993 to revitalize the wind power program: 1) municipality wind turbine planning, 2) updating economy survey of privately owned wind turbines, 3) in-depth survey of the social value (external costs) of wind power, 4) chart of conditions for installing off-shore wind turbines, 5) promotion of small wind turbines (so-called “household” turbines), and finally 6) a program for replacement of old or misplaced wind turbines with new machines. These and other initiatives has partly led the installation-rate back on the track from the last quarter of 1994, and in 1994 and 1995 totals of 50 and 90 MW of wind power, respectively, were installed.
WREC 1996 EVALUATION
OF ‘IRE EFFORT
As a result of the Governments energy policy the installed capacity of modem grid connected wind turbines by the end of 1994 was over 500 MW, which is about a third of the informal target of 1500 MW in year 2005. This 10 % supply fraction of wind energy can be fed into the Danish grid without special precautions with respect to power quality and grid stability. At present it is also estimated, that such a wind power supply fraction can be raised to as much as 15-20 % without special precautions. as stated, the technology related to grid-connected wind turbines is becoming mature. In Table 2 some key figures indicates this development. The source of Table 2 is the company E&M-Data, which prepares a national database on wind turbines in Denmark. For each year of wind turbines the database include a large fraction of the turbines. The fraction, year by year, can be seen by comparison between table 1 and table 2. Most new commercial wind turbines at present (1995) are grid connected horizontal axis wind turbines of installed capacities in the range of 200 kW to 600 kW. From table 1 can be seen that the average machine size has grown to 366 kW, implying that the new 450 kW to 600 kW machines now has a substantial share of the market. But the older 200 kW to 250 kW sizes also have an important market share. Hub height for the new generation of 450 kW to 600 kW machines is typically 40 meters, and the rotor diameter is 40 meter.
Table 2. Development of wind power technology in Denmark 1980-1993. wiiial index
19921 1993 I
182 110
1 203.6 1 26.8 1 31.5 1 I 261.5 I 28.6 I 32.0 I
1.53 1.33
192
I
812
I 2295 I 2174
The average “roughness class” indicates the goodness of actual sites. A roughness class 1 in Denmark corresponds to an annual mean wind speed of 5.0 m/s in 10 meter height and roughness class 2 equals 4.4 m/s. The figures indicate that siting of wind turbines in Denmark has improved. However, this development might not continue, because of increased difficulties in finding windy sites without restrictions. The production of the wind turbines is illustrated by the normalized electricity production per m2 swept rotor area and per kW generator capacity. The production is normalized to an “average wind year”. The improvement seen from table 2 is due to more efficient rotors, better siting, and higher towers.
851
WREiC 1996 Additional to such technical improvements the Danish wind power programs have over the years contributed to development of an internationally competitive wind power industry. The effect on employment in industry and increase in export has been important spin-offs from the Government’s wind energy policy. Danish surveys estimate wind power’s employment per MW of installed capacity to be approximately 7 man-years directly in the wind power industry (including service and maintenance staffs). To this must be added employment in the supply and construction industries, consultants, research etc., adding up to approx. 10 man-years pr. MW. In 1994 the Danish wind power industry reached a turnover of 2,288 millions DKR with an export rate of 88%, and with share of the World market of nearly 50%. Over 360 MW of wind turbines was produced in 1994.
REFERENCES World Energy Council (1994); New Renewable Energy Resources - Opportunities and Constraints 19902020 July 1993. Andersen, P.D.(ed) et al (1995a). EUREC Agency Wind Energy Position Paper (draft), Riser November 30 1995 (not public). Andersen, P.D. and P.L. Thomsen (1995b). Status and Strategies for the Danish Wind Energy R&D Program, 25th annual AWEA conference, Washington DC, USA March 1995.
852