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Addressing the causes of mass migrations: Leapfrog solutions for mutual prosperity growth between regions of emigration and regions of immigration
Technology in Society 46 (2016) 35e39
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Technology in Society journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/techsoc
Issues and opinions
Addressing the causes of mass migrations: Leapfrog solutions for mutual prosperity growth between regions of emigration and regions of immigration Stephen Fox VTT, Technical Research Centre of Finland, Tekniikankatu 4A, Espoo, P.O. Box 1000, FI-02044, Finland
a r t i c l e i n f o
a b s t r a c t
Article history: Received 31 August 2015 Received in revised form 3 May 2016 Accepted 11 May 2016 Available online 14 May 2016
Mass migrations can be perceived to be intractable crises comprising maritime rescues, security reinforcements, violent protests, and other high socio-economic costs. Yet, intractable real-world problems can be dealt with by changing their representations and seeing new associations. In this paper, it is argued that addressing the causes of mass migrations can be represented as opportunities for mutual prosperity growth rather than as intractable socio-economic crises. In addition, new associations for addressing the causes of mass migration are set-out in terms of leapfrog solutions. These are solutions that enable people to skip centralized inflexible dirty industrialization and go straight to local flexible clean solutions. Some leapfrog solutions are off-grid for local sanitation management and local energy generation. Other leapfrog solutions are mobile, such as Web-based education platforms, moveable factories, and text-based banking. Leapfrog solutions disintermediate, democratize and distribute opportunities. In other words, leapfrog solutions make the means to create prosperity directly accessible to all kinds of people in all kinds of places. Four inter-related leapfrog strategies are proposed for mutual prosperity growth between regions of emigration and regions of immigration as follows: highly distributed infrastructure; prosumption with leapfrog solutions; mutual prosperity hubs; and access to latent resources. Overall, it is argued mass migrations can appear to be intractable crises due to out-ofdate preconceptions about how to establish prosperity. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Mass migration Industrialization Centralization Preconceptions Prosperity Emigration Immigration Leapfrog Off-grid Mobile technologies Latent realities Diaspora
1. Introduction Across the world, throughout time, people have migrated from regions where they see no hope of prosperity to regions where they believe they can find prosperity. In 2016, migrants risk the dangers of the Indian Ocean to Australia, the Sahara Desert to Europe, El Tren de la Muerte to the USA; and other perilous routes to where they believe they can find prosperity. Recent responses to mass migration have included maritime rescues, humanitarian goodwill, border reinforcements, and migrant allocation disputes. Meanwhile, addressing the causes of mass migration through leapfrog solutions for mutual prosperity growth has not been proposed. Here, mutual prosperity growth refers to prosperity growth that is created and shared on the basis of productive contributions from both regions of emigration and regions of immigration. Leapfrog solutions may be ignored because of
E-mail address: stephen.fox@vtt.fi. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2016.05.001 0160-791X/© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
preconceptions that prosperity is always best facilitated by industrial centralized provision of resources to meet mass demand in stable conditions. For example, central banks providing fiat currencies; central governments providing school curricula; central energy generation providing electricity; centralized manufacturing of mass produced goods, etc. In particular, industrialization is put forward as being the way to bring increased prosperity to regions of emigration [1]. Industrialization can have prerequisites that many regions of emigration do not have, including homogeneous population, capital wealth, and decades of stability. Moreover, industrialization can involve centralization of resources, including centralization of fixed infrastructures in a few over populated cities. This can lead to large geographical areas being left without clean water, reliable energy, adequate sanitation, and other infrastructure needed for prosperity [2]. Furthermore, preconceptions that prosperity is always best facilitated by centralization are out-of-date. This is because there
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are an ever increasing number of leapfrog solutions that enable prosperity to be highly distributed. These include digital alternatives to centralized control of fiat currencies; mobile devices bringing online and offline education; mini-grids generating energy from solar, wind, etc.; moveable factories for local production of local goods by local people, etc. Leapfrog solutions enable people to skip centralized inflexible dirty industrialization and go straight to local flexible clean solutions. Some leapfrog solutions are off-grid for local sanitation management and local energy generation. Other leapfrog solutions are mobile, such as Web-based education platforms, moveable factories, and text-based banking. Leapfrog solutions disintermediate, democratize and distribute opportunities. In other words, leapfrog solutions make the means to create prosperity directly accessible to all kinds of people in all kinds of places [3]. Importantly, leapfrog solutions can overcome the centuries old trade-off between the distribution and the efficiency. Within subsistence economies, for example, production is distributed but not efficient. By contrast, within industrial economies, production is efficient but centralized [4]. Accordingly in this paper, leapfrog solutions, which can be both highly distributed and highly efficient, are proposed for enabling mutual prosperity growth between regions of emigration and regions of immigration. 2. Leapfrog solutions 2.1. Widespread distribution of prosperity infrastructures Centralization in regions of emigration leaves the majority areas without infrastructure for clean water, reliable energy, adequate sanitation, rapid communication, and other requirements for prosperity. This pattern of polarization, between those who have infrastructure and those who do not have infrastructure, is being reinforced by gated smart eco cities. These are new cities being built around, for example, Accra, Kampala, Kinshasa, Lagos, and Nairobi, which provide high specification accommodation and amenities, together with constant security [5]. In the short-term, such cities can provide havens for those few with sufficient financial wealth to be able to move out of overcrowded old cities. In the medium-term, gated smart eco cities can function as islands of infrastructure, which are surrounded by informal settlements without any infrastructure and old cities with malfunctioning infrastructure. However, in the longer term, the concentration of infrastructure at a few locations can lead to rural exodus that overspills conurbations into migrant tides across borders and continents. Moreover, the abandonment of large areas of countries’ land can leave countries vulnerable to incursions from resource hungry neighbors, which in turn can lead to mass migrations [6]. Focus on centralization is based on perceived advantages of centralized intermediated economies of scale, which involve separation of production and consumption. However, this is not a recent paradigm for providing supply and satisfying demand. Rather, centralized intermediated economies of scale became the dominant paradigm for production and consumption two hundred and fifty years ago in Europe during the Industrial Revolution. Over time, the limitations of this paradigm have become increasingly apparent. For example, need for more diversity of offerings has led to greater emphasis on economies of scope. These are derived from multiple combinations of components into many different offerings: rather than from mass production of a few standard products. In addition, disintermediation has reduced the number of intermediaries between producers and consumers; local supply has increased to address the limitations of centralization; and division between production and consumption has been reduced into
prosumption by leapfrog solutions for increased self-service, do-ityourself, etc. Hence, highly distributed prosumption is a much more modern option than continued centralized industrialization [7]. Moreover, as summarized in Fig. 1, compared to centralized industrialization, transition from distributed subsistence to highly distributed prosumption can greatly increase the geographical area in which people can create their own prosperity. Increasing the geographical area in which people can create their own prosperity is essential to decreasing mass migrations. This is because the smaller the global area in which people can create their own prosperity, the more likely it is that mass migrations will take place: first, within borders, and then over borders and across continents. In particular, centralized industrialization can leave huge areas to suffer environmental degradation, economic stagnation and social decay, as lack of infrastructure leaves local populations with too few resources to create their own prosperity while trying to adapt to exogenous forces such as climate change. Thus, as illustrated in Fig. 2, centralized industrialization can cause vast expanses of the world’s surface to become less resilient and more fragile, as so called smart eco cities glow with light while the lands beyond them are engulfed by darkness [8e15]. Causation can be summarized with the DPSIR framework [16]. In particular, industrialization is a Driving Force (D), resultant infrastructure centralization is a Pressure (P), consequent polarization of prosperity opportunities is a State (S), and mass migration is a subsequent Impact (I). Hence, more industrialization and centralization are not Responses (R) which can reduce mass migration. Rather, more industrialization and centralization can drive more mass migration. 2.2. Leapfrog prosumption of multi-adaptive highly distributed infrastructures By contrast, leapfrog solutions can enable highly distributed infrastructures, which can be multi-adaptive in order to function well in the face of significant unpredictable challenges brought to populations by, for example, climate change and market forces. Multi-adaptive infrastructures can encompass ecological, built, and electromechanical elements. Ecological elements can include green walls, shelter belts, windbreaks, etc.; built elements can encompass drainage, roadways, housing, etc.; electromechanical elements can include turbines, motors, pumps, etc. To maximize engagement and employment, highly distributed infrastructures, and any subsequent adaptations of their multiple elements, can be achieved through production involving local populations. When people make what they use, they are involved in prosumption. This is part of everyday life in subsistence economies. However, subsistence prosumption is inefficient. By contrast, prosumption that involves leapfrog solutions can be highly efficient and highly distributed. Moreover, leapfrog solutions make production work clean and light. Hence, it can be carried out by men and women, young and old. Thus, opportunity and employment can be highly distributed demographically as well as geographically. Importantly, low cost leapfrog technologies can be introduced very quickly to provide people with the means, of creating necessary infrastructures. For example, moveable factories can be fabricated and delivered in a few months to enable highly efficient production ranging from agricultural processing to assembly of consumer goods. Using established industrial engineering techniques, high quality production can be set-up quickly with workforces that do not have existing relevant production skills. In addition, digitally-driven manufacturing innovations enable
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Fig. 1. Comparison of centralized industrialization and highly distributed prosumption.
education platforms can be combined with solar-powered laptops to provide person-specific production training for different types of moveable factories. Their potential for innovative and entrepreneurial use sets leapfrog technologies apart from industrial development projects that have not brought prosperity to regions of emigration in the past. Thus, leapfrog technologies can facilitate more highly distributed innovation and entrepreneurship. This can introduce many opportunities for mutual prosperity growth between what are now regions of emigration, such as Africa, and regions of immigration, such as Europe. Another fundamental advantage of leapfrog technologies is their potential to be moved from one place to another. For example, their relatively low cost, small size and versatile mobility means that they can be used first at temporary settlements. Then, they can be taken to migrants’ home countries. Hence, they can be used immediately to reduce the causes of mass migration. This can begin with supported training in the production, operation and maintenance of leapfrog technologies, before they are taken into use independently [17]. 2.3. Establish mutual prosperity hubs based on leapfrog solutions Fig. 2. Centralized industrialization: unlit fragile expanses.
rapid conversion of design information into physical goods. An important advance is that complex components can be made accurately and quickly by small manufacturing machines, via direct transfer of digital data. Such machines require some maintenance, but this is no more challenging than the maintenance that is already carried out by local people to keep trucks moving in challenging conditions across Africa and Asia. Importantly, manufacturing innovations reduce educational and financial barriers to setting-up production. This is because they greatly reduce the number of tasks involved and the number of machines needed. As well as being accessible, economical and fast, leapfrog solutions are flexible with potential to be combined in many different ways for many different applications. For example, Web-based
Many regions of emigration have areas within them that are sufficiently safe for establishing hubs of employment and opportunity. Consider, for example, Somalia. Motion pictures and news reports depict Somalia as a land of unrelenting danger. Yet, there are regular passenger flights from Istanbul to Mogadishu, and Somalia is a leader in the adoption of mobile innovations [18]. In addition, Somalia has remittance funds in need of investment opportunities, and access to external funds for addressing the causes of mass migration from for example from the EU. Moreover, Somalia has a large well-educated and entrepreneurial diaspora, members of which have wide social networks across regions of emigration and regions of immigration [19]. Initially, mutual prosperity can be facilitated by the local prosumption of leapfrog solutions developed in regions of immigration for emerging markets. For example, design information and key
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components can be sent from regions of immigration, while much manufacturing, assembly and/or installation can be done under license in regions of emigration where there is demand. In this way, costs of production can be radically reduced and sales can be radically increased. Many different types of leapfrog solutions have been developed for emerging markets by organizations in regions of immigration. For example, GE is expanding its low cost healthcare portfolio for emerging markets, and California State Polytechnic has developed a Solar Powered Educational Learning Library. With modern prefabricated and moveable factories, it is possible to set-up world class production quickly and economically in challenging environments. For example, production of computer tablets has been established successfully in Haiti [20]. In addition, people in regions of emigration can innovate their own leapfrog solutions. Then, they can set-up enterprises based on their innovations for regional trade and global trade. The commercial potential for this is already recognized within frugal innovation. This involves improving goods and their production through the elimination of non-value adding parts and operations: in other words, it involves doing more with less [21]. A variety of methods can be used to reduce the volume of materials and parts that have to be physically transported to mutual prosperity hubs. Firstly, fewer products need to be made to bring prosperity if the principles of collaborative consumption/sharing economy are applied. Secondly, application of frugal innovation, industrial engineering techniques and digitally-driven machines can reduce the number of individual parts needed per product and the volume of materials needed to make them. Thirdly, the use and reuse of local materials can be maximized through application of principles of product architecture, modularization, design for assembly, and design for disassembly [22]. If there are regions of emigration that are wholly unsafe for a period of time, mutual prosperity hubs could be set-up at locations where immigrants are temporarily located, such as for example, Jordan, Nauru, and Niger. This provides the opportunity for temporary locations to participate in the development of mutual prosperity rather than just suffer the socio-economic strains of housing migrants on behalf of other countries [23]. At the same time, migrants can develop experience and expertise that they need to subsequently establish prosperity in their own regions. An example of the development of mutual prosperity at temporary locations is the Startup Refugees initiative. This cross-sector initiative involves Finnish private, public, and not-for-profit organizations working together with migrants. In particular, Startup Refugees aims to turn migrant reception centers into hubs for innovation and entrepreneurship, which combine migrant skills and creativity with Finnish tech and creativity into opportunities for mutual prosperity growth [24].
hopelessness is neither directly observable nor easily described by a single measure: but underlies actions that can be observed and can be measured. Indeed, across the world, throughout time, people have migrated from regions where they see no hope of prosperity to regions where they believe they can find prosperity. Hopelessness is linked to other latent realities such as self-efficacy. That is the strength of one’s belief in one’s own ability to complete tasks and reach goals. In order for migrants to believe that they can complete tasks and reach goals in the development of mutual prosperity, they need belief that support will be available when they need it. Hitherto, access to organizations with expertise in, for example, industrial engineering and digitally-driven manufacturing has been restricted by high barriers. Now, however, access can be facilitated by Internet-enabled associations of diverse individuals with common interests. For example, many regions of emigration already have global diaspora who have been educated, worked, and set-up businesses in regions of immigration. Diaspora members’ understanding of regions of emigration and regions of immigration can provide in depth insights when addressing migrant crises and their underlying causes. Thus far, however, there has been a lack of initiatives to comprehensively harness their collective intelligence in addressing migrant crises. This can be achieved by establishing Web-based platforms for global diaspora communities and actively encouraging their participation. Existing Web-based platforms, such as kickstarter.com; openmaterials.org; 100kgarages.com; instructables.com; innocentive.com; and makerfaire.com can provide examples for setting up Web-based forums, which enable global diaspora to ideate, create, and propagate socio-technical solutions for challenges in regions of emigration. The scope of Web-enabled activities can include, for example, community-to-community resource sharing in the development of goods, services, and systems for mutual prosperity. Moreover, existing diaspora are well placed to be online intermediaries between potential supply and potential demand across regions of emigration and regions of immigration. In addition to their collective intelligence, diaspora include many individuals whose outstanding success can enable them to be figureheads for leading mutual prosperity development. For example, a 2015 world entrepreneur of the year is a member of the Syrian diaspora [26]. Hence, as well as actual resources of physical materials and machines at mutual prosperity hubs, migrants can have access to the latent resources of geographically distant individuals’ experience and talent. Some of these latent resources may need to be called upon by many migrants many times. By contrast, some of these latent resources may never need to be called upon. Nonetheless, the latent reality of their availability can span across many physical mutual prosperity hubs and be a major source of hope for migrants within them [27].
2.4. Maximize access to latent resources
3. Discussion and conclusions
Mutual prosperity hubs should never be a new form of centralization. Rather, they should always be growing areas within expanding landscapes of high distributed prosperity infrastructures that combine physical resources, digital resources, and latent resources. Physical resources can include physical spaces and production equipment; digital resources can include digital tools for communication and design; latent resources can include the talents of distant diaspora. Physical resources and digital resources can already be found at more than one hundred Makerspaces and Tech Hubs across Africa [25]. However, less consideration and action has been directed towards the important potential of latent realities and latent resources to affect prosperity growth. For example, hopelessness is a latent reality. That is
Intractable real-world problems can be dealt with by changing their representations and seeing new associations [28,29]. In this paper, it has been argued that addressing the causes of mass migrations can be represented as opportunities for mutual prosperity growth rather than as intractable socio-economic crises. Leapfrog solutions have been set out as new associations for addressing the causes of mass migration and, at the same time, facilitating mutual prosperity growth. As summarized in Fig. 3, it should be recognized that more industrialization and more centralization, including the construction of smart eco cities, are not solutions to mass migration. Rather, they can contribute to driving human exodus across borders [30]. By contrast, highly distributed leapfrog prosumption of
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Fig. 3. Addressing the causes of mass migration.
infrastructure for soil, water, energy, and food can counteract environmental pressures. At the same time, mutual prosperity hubs can counteract economic stagnation, and access to latent resources can counteract social decay. Thus, four major causes of mass migration can be addressed [8e15]. At a time when regions of immigration need to find new ways to maintain their own prosperity, the migrants who arrive at their borders can be regarded potential partners in setting-up mutual prosperity rather than people who should be shut out at all costs. They can be seen in this positive perspective if politicians, administrators, and the general public address out-of-date preconceptions about the need for centralization and industrialization; and familiarize themselves with leapfrog solutions that can enable highly distributed prosperity. Migrants can fulfill this positive perspective if organizations that develop leapfrog solutions work with politicians and global diaspora to set-up actual and latent resources for advanced prosumption of highly distributed prosperity. Initiatives such as Startup Refugees provide early indications of what can be done to enable mutual prosperity growth by changing representations of mass migrations and by making new associations in the creation of mutual prosperity [24]. References [1] African Union Directorate of Information and Communication, Africa-EU Migration Summit in Valletta, 2015 November 10. Malta. Press Release No. 331/2015. [2] J. de Haan, Flexible infrastructures for uncertain futures, Futures 43 (2011) 921e922. [3] Y. Geng, B. Doberstein, Developing the circular economy in China: challenges and opportunities for achieving ’leapfrog development’, Int. J. Sustain. Dev. World Ecol. 15 (3) (2008) 231e239. [4] S. Fox, Third Wave Do-It-Yourself (DIY): potential for presumption, innovation and entrepreneurship in regions without industrial manufacturing infrastructure, Technol. Soc. 39 (2014) 18e30. [5] L. Johnson, Petropolis now: are cities getting too big? New Statesman (2013; November 14). [6] R. Baird, K. Migiro, D. Nutt, A. Kwatra, S. Wilson, J. Melby, A. Pendleton, M. Rodgers, J. Davison, Human Tide: the Real Migration Crisis, Christian Aid, London, 2007. [7] S. Fox, Paradigm shift: do-it-yourself (DIY) invention and production of physical goods for use or sale, J. Manuf. Technol. Manag. 24 (2) (2013) 218e234. [8] V. Snieska, I. Simkunaite, Socio-economic impact of infrastructure investments, Econ. Eng. Decis. 63 (4) (2009) 16e25.
[9] B. Srinivasu, P.S. Rao, Infrastructure development and economic growth: prospects and perspectives, J. Bus. Manag. Soc. Sci. Res. 2 (1) (2013) 81e91. [10] H. Hoff, C. Iceland, J. Kuylenstierna, D.W. te Velde, Managing the water-landenergy nexus for sustainable development, U. N. Chron. 49 (1e2) (2012) 4. [11] A.D. Sagar, Alleviating energy poverty for the world’s poor, Energy Policy 33 (2005) 1367e1372. [12] B. Allenby, J. Fink, Toward inherently secure and resilient societies, Science 309 (5737) (2005) 1034e1036. [13] J. Sze, Fantasy Islands: Chinese Dreams and Ecological Fears in an Age of Climate Crisis, University of California Press, Oakland, CA, 2015. [14] G. Graham, Too-smart cities? Why these visions of utopia need an urgent reality check, The Guardian (2014; March 13). [15] R. Cohen, F.M. Deng, Masses in Flight: The Global Crisis of Internal Displacement, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, DC, 1998. [16] P. Kristensen, The DPSIR Framework, National Environmental Research Institute, Denmark, Department of Policy Analysis European Topic Centre on Water, European Environment Agency, 2004. [17] S. Fox, Moveable factories: how to enable sustainable widespread manufacturing in regions without manufacturing skills and infrastructure, Technol. Soc. 42 (2015) 49e60. [18] R. Firestone, T. Kelly, A. Rifon, Supporting the ICT Sector in Somalia, The World Bank, 2015; July 23. http://blogs.worldbank.org/ic4d/supporting-ict-sectorsomalia. [19] A. Saeed, Young diaspora Somalis rediscovering entrepreneurial roots, BBC News (2014; September 18). http://www.bbc.com/news/world-29185935. [20] R.R. Lall, Haiti’s Android tablet maker Surtab to crank up production, The Guardian (2014; February 27). http://www.theguardian.com/globaldevelopment/2014/feb/27/haiti-android-tablet-maker-surtab-productionincrease. [21] N. Radjou, J. Prabhu, Frugal Innovation: How to Do More with Less, The Economist Books, London, 2015. [22] G. Boothroyd, P. Dewhurst, W.A. night, Product Design for Manufacture and Assembly, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL., 2011. [23] I. Traynor, Brussels Brussels plans migration centres outside EU to process asylum applications, The Guardian (2015; March 5). [24] http://startuprefugees.com/. [25] T. Kelly, Tech Hubs across Africa: Which Will Be the Legacy-makers?, The World Bank, Information and Communication for Development, 2014; April 30. http://blogs.worldbank.org/ic4d/tech-hubs-across-africa-which-will-belegacy-makers. [26] H. Greenhalgh, Mohed Altrad wins EY world entrepreneur of the year award, Financ. Times (2015; June 6). [27] S. Fox, Open prosperity: How latent realities arising from virtual-socialphysical convergence (VSP) increase opportunities for global prosperity, Technol. Soc. 44 (2016) 92e103. [28] G. Knoblich, S. Ohlsson, G.E. Raney, H. Haider, D. Rhenius, Constraint relaxation and chunk decomposition in insight problem solving, J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Mem. Cognit. 25 (1999) 1534e1555. [29] S. Mednick, The associative basis of the creative process, Psychol. Rev. 69 (1962) 220e232. [30] J.M. Shandra, B. London, J.B. Williamson, Environmental degradation, environmental sustainability, and overurbanization in the developing world: a quantitative, cross-national analysis, Sociol. Perspect. 46 (3) (2003) 309e329.
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Technology in Society journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/techsoc
Issues and opinions
Addressing the causes of mass migrations: Leapfrog solutions for mutual prosperity growth between regions of emigration and regions of immigration Stephen Fox VTT, Technical Research Centre of Finland, Tekniikankatu 4A, Espoo, P.O. Box 1000, FI-02044, Finland
a r t i c l e i n f o
a b s t r a c t
Article history: Received 31 August 2015 Received in revised form 3 May 2016 Accepted 11 May 2016 Available online 14 May 2016
Mass migrations can be perceived to be intractable crises comprising maritime rescues, security reinforcements, violent protests, and other high socio-economic costs. Yet, intractable real-world problems can be dealt with by changing their representations and seeing new associations. In this paper, it is argued that addressing the causes of mass migrations can be represented as opportunities for mutual prosperity growth rather than as intractable socio-economic crises. In addition, new associations for addressing the causes of mass migration are set-out in terms of leapfrog solutions. These are solutions that enable people to skip centralized inflexible dirty industrialization and go straight to local flexible clean solutions. Some leapfrog solutions are off-grid for local sanitation management and local energy generation. Other leapfrog solutions are mobile, such as Web-based education platforms, moveable factories, and text-based banking. Leapfrog solutions disintermediate, democratize and distribute opportunities. In other words, leapfrog solutions make the means to create prosperity directly accessible to all kinds of people in all kinds of places. Four inter-related leapfrog strategies are proposed for mutual prosperity growth between regions of emigration and regions of immigration as follows: highly distributed infrastructure; prosumption with leapfrog solutions; mutual prosperity hubs; and access to latent resources. Overall, it is argued mass migrations can appear to be intractable crises due to out-ofdate preconceptions about how to establish prosperity. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Mass migration Industrialization Centralization Preconceptions Prosperity Emigration Immigration Leapfrog Off-grid Mobile technologies Latent realities Diaspora
1. Introduction Across the world, throughout time, people have migrated from regions where they see no hope of prosperity to regions where they believe they can find prosperity. In 2016, migrants risk the dangers of the Indian Ocean to Australia, the Sahara Desert to Europe, El Tren de la Muerte to the USA; and other perilous routes to where they believe they can find prosperity. Recent responses to mass migration have included maritime rescues, humanitarian goodwill, border reinforcements, and migrant allocation disputes. Meanwhile, addressing the causes of mass migration through leapfrog solutions for mutual prosperity growth has not been proposed. Here, mutual prosperity growth refers to prosperity growth that is created and shared on the basis of productive contributions from both regions of emigration and regions of immigration. Leapfrog solutions may be ignored because of
E-mail address: stephen.fox@vtt.fi. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2016.05.001 0160-791X/© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
preconceptions that prosperity is always best facilitated by industrial centralized provision of resources to meet mass demand in stable conditions. For example, central banks providing fiat currencies; central governments providing school curricula; central energy generation providing electricity; centralized manufacturing of mass produced goods, etc. In particular, industrialization is put forward as being the way to bring increased prosperity to regions of emigration [1]. Industrialization can have prerequisites that many regions of emigration do not have, including homogeneous population, capital wealth, and decades of stability. Moreover, industrialization can involve centralization of resources, including centralization of fixed infrastructures in a few over populated cities. This can lead to large geographical areas being left without clean water, reliable energy, adequate sanitation, and other infrastructure needed for prosperity [2]. Furthermore, preconceptions that prosperity is always best facilitated by centralization are out-of-date. This is because there
36
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are an ever increasing number of leapfrog solutions that enable prosperity to be highly distributed. These include digital alternatives to centralized control of fiat currencies; mobile devices bringing online and offline education; mini-grids generating energy from solar, wind, etc.; moveable factories for local production of local goods by local people, etc. Leapfrog solutions enable people to skip centralized inflexible dirty industrialization and go straight to local flexible clean solutions. Some leapfrog solutions are off-grid for local sanitation management and local energy generation. Other leapfrog solutions are mobile, such as Web-based education platforms, moveable factories, and text-based banking. Leapfrog solutions disintermediate, democratize and distribute opportunities. In other words, leapfrog solutions make the means to create prosperity directly accessible to all kinds of people in all kinds of places [3]. Importantly, leapfrog solutions can overcome the centuries old trade-off between the distribution and the efficiency. Within subsistence economies, for example, production is distributed but not efficient. By contrast, within industrial economies, production is efficient but centralized [4]. Accordingly in this paper, leapfrog solutions, which can be both highly distributed and highly efficient, are proposed for enabling mutual prosperity growth between regions of emigration and regions of immigration. 2. Leapfrog solutions 2.1. Widespread distribution of prosperity infrastructures Centralization in regions of emigration leaves the majority areas without infrastructure for clean water, reliable energy, adequate sanitation, rapid communication, and other requirements for prosperity. This pattern of polarization, between those who have infrastructure and those who do not have infrastructure, is being reinforced by gated smart eco cities. These are new cities being built around, for example, Accra, Kampala, Kinshasa, Lagos, and Nairobi, which provide high specification accommodation and amenities, together with constant security [5]. In the short-term, such cities can provide havens for those few with sufficient financial wealth to be able to move out of overcrowded old cities. In the medium-term, gated smart eco cities can function as islands of infrastructure, which are surrounded by informal settlements without any infrastructure and old cities with malfunctioning infrastructure. However, in the longer term, the concentration of infrastructure at a few locations can lead to rural exodus that overspills conurbations into migrant tides across borders and continents. Moreover, the abandonment of large areas of countries’ land can leave countries vulnerable to incursions from resource hungry neighbors, which in turn can lead to mass migrations [6]. Focus on centralization is based on perceived advantages of centralized intermediated economies of scale, which involve separation of production and consumption. However, this is not a recent paradigm for providing supply and satisfying demand. Rather, centralized intermediated economies of scale became the dominant paradigm for production and consumption two hundred and fifty years ago in Europe during the Industrial Revolution. Over time, the limitations of this paradigm have become increasingly apparent. For example, need for more diversity of offerings has led to greater emphasis on economies of scope. These are derived from multiple combinations of components into many different offerings: rather than from mass production of a few standard products. In addition, disintermediation has reduced the number of intermediaries between producers and consumers; local supply has increased to address the limitations of centralization; and division between production and consumption has been reduced into
prosumption by leapfrog solutions for increased self-service, do-ityourself, etc. Hence, highly distributed prosumption is a much more modern option than continued centralized industrialization [7]. Moreover, as summarized in Fig. 1, compared to centralized industrialization, transition from distributed subsistence to highly distributed prosumption can greatly increase the geographical area in which people can create their own prosperity. Increasing the geographical area in which people can create their own prosperity is essential to decreasing mass migrations. This is because the smaller the global area in which people can create their own prosperity, the more likely it is that mass migrations will take place: first, within borders, and then over borders and across continents. In particular, centralized industrialization can leave huge areas to suffer environmental degradation, economic stagnation and social decay, as lack of infrastructure leaves local populations with too few resources to create their own prosperity while trying to adapt to exogenous forces such as climate change. Thus, as illustrated in Fig. 2, centralized industrialization can cause vast expanses of the world’s surface to become less resilient and more fragile, as so called smart eco cities glow with light while the lands beyond them are engulfed by darkness [8e15]. Causation can be summarized with the DPSIR framework [16]. In particular, industrialization is a Driving Force (D), resultant infrastructure centralization is a Pressure (P), consequent polarization of prosperity opportunities is a State (S), and mass migration is a subsequent Impact (I). Hence, more industrialization and centralization are not Responses (R) which can reduce mass migration. Rather, more industrialization and centralization can drive more mass migration. 2.2. Leapfrog prosumption of multi-adaptive highly distributed infrastructures By contrast, leapfrog solutions can enable highly distributed infrastructures, which can be multi-adaptive in order to function well in the face of significant unpredictable challenges brought to populations by, for example, climate change and market forces. Multi-adaptive infrastructures can encompass ecological, built, and electromechanical elements. Ecological elements can include green walls, shelter belts, windbreaks, etc.; built elements can encompass drainage, roadways, housing, etc.; electromechanical elements can include turbines, motors, pumps, etc. To maximize engagement and employment, highly distributed infrastructures, and any subsequent adaptations of their multiple elements, can be achieved through production involving local populations. When people make what they use, they are involved in prosumption. This is part of everyday life in subsistence economies. However, subsistence prosumption is inefficient. By contrast, prosumption that involves leapfrog solutions can be highly efficient and highly distributed. Moreover, leapfrog solutions make production work clean and light. Hence, it can be carried out by men and women, young and old. Thus, opportunity and employment can be highly distributed demographically as well as geographically. Importantly, low cost leapfrog technologies can be introduced very quickly to provide people with the means, of creating necessary infrastructures. For example, moveable factories can be fabricated and delivered in a few months to enable highly efficient production ranging from agricultural processing to assembly of consumer goods. Using established industrial engineering techniques, high quality production can be set-up quickly with workforces that do not have existing relevant production skills. In addition, digitally-driven manufacturing innovations enable
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Fig. 1. Comparison of centralized industrialization and highly distributed prosumption.
education platforms can be combined with solar-powered laptops to provide person-specific production training for different types of moveable factories. Their potential for innovative and entrepreneurial use sets leapfrog technologies apart from industrial development projects that have not brought prosperity to regions of emigration in the past. Thus, leapfrog technologies can facilitate more highly distributed innovation and entrepreneurship. This can introduce many opportunities for mutual prosperity growth between what are now regions of emigration, such as Africa, and regions of immigration, such as Europe. Another fundamental advantage of leapfrog technologies is their potential to be moved from one place to another. For example, their relatively low cost, small size and versatile mobility means that they can be used first at temporary settlements. Then, they can be taken to migrants’ home countries. Hence, they can be used immediately to reduce the causes of mass migration. This can begin with supported training in the production, operation and maintenance of leapfrog technologies, before they are taken into use independently [17]. 2.3. Establish mutual prosperity hubs based on leapfrog solutions Fig. 2. Centralized industrialization: unlit fragile expanses.
rapid conversion of design information into physical goods. An important advance is that complex components can be made accurately and quickly by small manufacturing machines, via direct transfer of digital data. Such machines require some maintenance, but this is no more challenging than the maintenance that is already carried out by local people to keep trucks moving in challenging conditions across Africa and Asia. Importantly, manufacturing innovations reduce educational and financial barriers to setting-up production. This is because they greatly reduce the number of tasks involved and the number of machines needed. As well as being accessible, economical and fast, leapfrog solutions are flexible with potential to be combined in many different ways for many different applications. For example, Web-based
Many regions of emigration have areas within them that are sufficiently safe for establishing hubs of employment and opportunity. Consider, for example, Somalia. Motion pictures and news reports depict Somalia as a land of unrelenting danger. Yet, there are regular passenger flights from Istanbul to Mogadishu, and Somalia is a leader in the adoption of mobile innovations [18]. In addition, Somalia has remittance funds in need of investment opportunities, and access to external funds for addressing the causes of mass migration from for example from the EU. Moreover, Somalia has a large well-educated and entrepreneurial diaspora, members of which have wide social networks across regions of emigration and regions of immigration [19]. Initially, mutual prosperity can be facilitated by the local prosumption of leapfrog solutions developed in regions of immigration for emerging markets. For example, design information and key
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components can be sent from regions of immigration, while much manufacturing, assembly and/or installation can be done under license in regions of emigration where there is demand. In this way, costs of production can be radically reduced and sales can be radically increased. Many different types of leapfrog solutions have been developed for emerging markets by organizations in regions of immigration. For example, GE is expanding its low cost healthcare portfolio for emerging markets, and California State Polytechnic has developed a Solar Powered Educational Learning Library. With modern prefabricated and moveable factories, it is possible to set-up world class production quickly and economically in challenging environments. For example, production of computer tablets has been established successfully in Haiti [20]. In addition, people in regions of emigration can innovate their own leapfrog solutions. Then, they can set-up enterprises based on their innovations for regional trade and global trade. The commercial potential for this is already recognized within frugal innovation. This involves improving goods and their production through the elimination of non-value adding parts and operations: in other words, it involves doing more with less [21]. A variety of methods can be used to reduce the volume of materials and parts that have to be physically transported to mutual prosperity hubs. Firstly, fewer products need to be made to bring prosperity if the principles of collaborative consumption/sharing economy are applied. Secondly, application of frugal innovation, industrial engineering techniques and digitally-driven machines can reduce the number of individual parts needed per product and the volume of materials needed to make them. Thirdly, the use and reuse of local materials can be maximized through application of principles of product architecture, modularization, design for assembly, and design for disassembly [22]. If there are regions of emigration that are wholly unsafe for a period of time, mutual prosperity hubs could be set-up at locations where immigrants are temporarily located, such as for example, Jordan, Nauru, and Niger. This provides the opportunity for temporary locations to participate in the development of mutual prosperity rather than just suffer the socio-economic strains of housing migrants on behalf of other countries [23]. At the same time, migrants can develop experience and expertise that they need to subsequently establish prosperity in their own regions. An example of the development of mutual prosperity at temporary locations is the Startup Refugees initiative. This cross-sector initiative involves Finnish private, public, and not-for-profit organizations working together with migrants. In particular, Startup Refugees aims to turn migrant reception centers into hubs for innovation and entrepreneurship, which combine migrant skills and creativity with Finnish tech and creativity into opportunities for mutual prosperity growth [24].
hopelessness is neither directly observable nor easily described by a single measure: but underlies actions that can be observed and can be measured. Indeed, across the world, throughout time, people have migrated from regions where they see no hope of prosperity to regions where they believe they can find prosperity. Hopelessness is linked to other latent realities such as self-efficacy. That is the strength of one’s belief in one’s own ability to complete tasks and reach goals. In order for migrants to believe that they can complete tasks and reach goals in the development of mutual prosperity, they need belief that support will be available when they need it. Hitherto, access to organizations with expertise in, for example, industrial engineering and digitally-driven manufacturing has been restricted by high barriers. Now, however, access can be facilitated by Internet-enabled associations of diverse individuals with common interests. For example, many regions of emigration already have global diaspora who have been educated, worked, and set-up businesses in regions of immigration. Diaspora members’ understanding of regions of emigration and regions of immigration can provide in depth insights when addressing migrant crises and their underlying causes. Thus far, however, there has been a lack of initiatives to comprehensively harness their collective intelligence in addressing migrant crises. This can be achieved by establishing Web-based platforms for global diaspora communities and actively encouraging their participation. Existing Web-based platforms, such as kickstarter.com; openmaterials.org; 100kgarages.com; instructables.com; innocentive.com; and makerfaire.com can provide examples for setting up Web-based forums, which enable global diaspora to ideate, create, and propagate socio-technical solutions for challenges in regions of emigration. The scope of Web-enabled activities can include, for example, community-to-community resource sharing in the development of goods, services, and systems for mutual prosperity. Moreover, existing diaspora are well placed to be online intermediaries between potential supply and potential demand across regions of emigration and regions of immigration. In addition to their collective intelligence, diaspora include many individuals whose outstanding success can enable them to be figureheads for leading mutual prosperity development. For example, a 2015 world entrepreneur of the year is a member of the Syrian diaspora [26]. Hence, as well as actual resources of physical materials and machines at mutual prosperity hubs, migrants can have access to the latent resources of geographically distant individuals’ experience and talent. Some of these latent resources may need to be called upon by many migrants many times. By contrast, some of these latent resources may never need to be called upon. Nonetheless, the latent reality of their availability can span across many physical mutual prosperity hubs and be a major source of hope for migrants within them [27].
2.4. Maximize access to latent resources
3. Discussion and conclusions
Mutual prosperity hubs should never be a new form of centralization. Rather, they should always be growing areas within expanding landscapes of high distributed prosperity infrastructures that combine physical resources, digital resources, and latent resources. Physical resources can include physical spaces and production equipment; digital resources can include digital tools for communication and design; latent resources can include the talents of distant diaspora. Physical resources and digital resources can already be found at more than one hundred Makerspaces and Tech Hubs across Africa [25]. However, less consideration and action has been directed towards the important potential of latent realities and latent resources to affect prosperity growth. For example, hopelessness is a latent reality. That is
Intractable real-world problems can be dealt with by changing their representations and seeing new associations [28,29]. In this paper, it has been argued that addressing the causes of mass migrations can be represented as opportunities for mutual prosperity growth rather than as intractable socio-economic crises. Leapfrog solutions have been set out as new associations for addressing the causes of mass migration and, at the same time, facilitating mutual prosperity growth. As summarized in Fig. 3, it should be recognized that more industrialization and more centralization, including the construction of smart eco cities, are not solutions to mass migration. Rather, they can contribute to driving human exodus across borders [30]. By contrast, highly distributed leapfrog prosumption of
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Fig. 3. Addressing the causes of mass migration.
infrastructure for soil, water, energy, and food can counteract environmental pressures. At the same time, mutual prosperity hubs can counteract economic stagnation, and access to latent resources can counteract social decay. Thus, four major causes of mass migration can be addressed [8e15]. At a time when regions of immigration need to find new ways to maintain their own prosperity, the migrants who arrive at their borders can be regarded potential partners in setting-up mutual prosperity rather than people who should be shut out at all costs. They can be seen in this positive perspective if politicians, administrators, and the general public address out-of-date preconceptions about the need for centralization and industrialization; and familiarize themselves with leapfrog solutions that can enable highly distributed prosperity. Migrants can fulfill this positive perspective if organizations that develop leapfrog solutions work with politicians and global diaspora to set-up actual and latent resources for advanced prosumption of highly distributed prosperity. Initiatives such as Startup Refugees provide early indications of what can be done to enable mutual prosperity growth by changing representations of mass migrations and by making new associations in the creation of mutual prosperity [24]. References [1] African Union Directorate of Information and Communication, Africa-EU Migration Summit in Valletta, 2015 November 10. Malta. Press Release No. 331/2015. [2] J. de Haan, Flexible infrastructures for uncertain futures, Futures 43 (2011) 921e922. [3] Y. Geng, B. Doberstein, Developing the circular economy in China: challenges and opportunities for achieving ’leapfrog development’, Int. J. Sustain. Dev. World Ecol. 15 (3) (2008) 231e239. [4] S. Fox, Third Wave Do-It-Yourself (DIY): potential for presumption, innovation and entrepreneurship in regions without industrial manufacturing infrastructure, Technol. Soc. 39 (2014) 18e30. [5] L. Johnson, Petropolis now: are cities getting too big? New Statesman (2013; November 14). [6] R. Baird, K. Migiro, D. Nutt, A. Kwatra, S. Wilson, J. Melby, A. Pendleton, M. Rodgers, J. Davison, Human Tide: the Real Migration Crisis, Christian Aid, London, 2007. [7] S. Fox, Paradigm shift: do-it-yourself (DIY) invention and production of physical goods for use or sale, J. Manuf. Technol. Manag. 24 (2) (2013) 218e234. [8] V. Snieska, I. Simkunaite, Socio-economic impact of infrastructure investments, Econ. Eng. Decis. 63 (4) (2009) 16e25.
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