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Advances in violent crime analysis and law enforcement
Journal of Government Information, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 277–284, 1998 Copyright © 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd Printed in the USA. All rights reserved 1352-0237/98 $–see front matter
PII S1352-0237(98)00008-2
ADVANCES IN VIOLENT CRIME ANALYSIS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT: THE CANADIAN VIOLENT CRIME LINKAGE ANALYSIS SYSTEM PETER I. COLLINS Forensic Psychiatrist, Behavioural Sciences Section, Ontario Provincial Police, Assistant Professor, University of Toronto, Clarke Institute of Psychiatry, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5T 1R8. Internet: [email protected]
GREGORY F. JOHNSON Inspector, Officer i/c Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System, Technical Operations Directorate, Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Ottawa, Canada. Internet: [email protected]
ALBERTO CHOY Clinical Fellow, Forensic Division, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada. Internet: [email protected]
KEITH T. DAVIDSON Sergeant, NCO i/c Criminal Behaviour Analysis Section, Pacific Region, Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Vancouver, Canada. Internet: [email protected]
RONALD E. MACKAY Inspector (retired), Royal Canadian Mounted Police, President, Ron MacKay and Associates, Forensic Behavior Analysis, Ottawa, Canada. Internet: [email protected]
Abstract — After two years of research and development, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), in conjunction with the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP), introduced the Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System (ViCLAS). This computerized system allows trained specialists to link crimes such as serial homicide and serial sexual assaults. ViCLAS represents the application of the latest technology in crime linkage analysis to assist in criminal investigation. Now considered to be the “gold standard” of linkage analysis systems, it has been adopted by Australia, The Netherlands, Belgium, and Austria with 10 other nations examining the possibility of using ViCLAS. In the United States, Indiana and Tennessee use the system. This article examines the evolution and development of ViCLAS and its contribution to criminal investigation. © 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd Keywords — Law enforcement, Linkage analysis, Serial crimes
Jurisdictional boundaries and the inability of law enforcement agencies to communicate with each other allows transient killers to avoid identification and capture. Theodore (Ted) Bundy [1]
INTRODUCTION For many years law enforcement agencies have noted an ability of perpetrators of serial violent crimes to elude authorities. As indicated by the above statement made by 277
278
P. I. COLLINS et al.
the notorious serial killer, Ted Bundy, serial criminals are aware of this failure between agencies to communicate with each other. This leads to some serial offenders being able to evade detection. Bundy is believed to have committed in excess of 30 murders, in a number of jurisdictions in the United States, over a period of five years [1]. Traditionally, most municipal and regional police use the time-honored method of trying to link major unsolved crimes in their locale by manually listing the crimes and the sets of details garnered from the investigation of the crime, witness statements, and evidence found in one area. With this information physically laid out in one space, investigative teams may be able to link similar factors surrounding crimes to aid further in the investigation and ideally the eventual arrest of the suspect. Efforts to automate and advance the process of case linkage date back to the mid1980s in the United States. In the last three years, Canada has introduced an advanced automated case linkage system, the Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System (ViCLAS), which has attracted international attention because of its advancements in data analysis and linkage, and its added benefit in overcoming language barriers which may be a factor in some cross-jurisdictional and/or international investigations. AUTOMATED CASE LINKAGE SYSTEMS Automated case linkage is a term used to describe a computerized data base collection of information about solved or unsolved crimes. Investigators use the database to find similarities among the cases which may provide law enforcement officials with further information about the identification of potential suspects for an unsolved case or, in fact, a previously unrelated series of cases. In 1985, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) introduced an automated case linkage system, known as the Violent Crime Apprehension Program (VICAP). After a series of several complex, multi-jurisdictional, serial homicide investigations in the mid-1980s, Canadian law enforcement officials introduced a system that was required to identify and track serial violent crime/criminals. The Canadian Police Information Center (CPIC) Advisory Committee, comprised of the major police services across the country, agreed on the need for a central repository to capture, collate, and compare violent crimes. As a result, the Major Crime File (MCF) was developed and introduced as Canada’s first attempt at automated case linkage. The Major Crime File was a text-based narrative search database that was capable of querying only keywords and/or phrases and the data collection was by investigators in the field. The data collection methodology included a blank form with formatted fields for the traditional “tombstone” information that would typically be captured on investigative reports. Completed questionnaires would then be forwarded to regional analysts in the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, (RCMP) who would input the data. The Major Crime File relied on the accuracy and completeness of investigator’s reporting on the fill-in-the-blank MCF data collection form, coupled with the need for accuracy of data entry [2]. By 1990, the MCF had approximately 800 cases in the database; however, no hits (linkages) had occurred and the system had acquired a very poor reputation as an investigative aid. The primary weakness with the MCF was that query results were either too broad or too narrow, incumbent on the search criteria, and there was no methodology for capturing behaviorally based information. In many cases this behaviorally based information would be dependent on the investigator’s interpretation of the crime scene and assumed that he or she had any insight, awareness, or recollection of those is-
Violent Crime Linkage Analysis
279
sues. The MCF reporting form was also awkward and laborious to complete and was not well received by investigators. Ultimately, the MCF was never successful and never met the expectations of its creators. CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIVE ANALYSIS AND ViCLAS The unfortunate limitations in the data collection and, resulting failure of the MCF, led to a new Canadian initiative called Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System (ViCLAS). This was fuelled by one of the authors (MacKay) who returned from training at the FBI Behavioral Science Unit and eventually formed the Violent Crime Analysis Branch at RCMP Headquarters. There was the realization that an automated case linkage system would have to utilize some of the behavioral principles applied in criminal investigative analysis (commonly called psychological profiling) to identify and track serial violent crime and criminals. The goal was to develop a program that utilized the psychiatric, psychological, and behavioral principles used to identify serial violent crimes and criminals whose offenses are typically fantasy-based and driven. From May 1991 until the end of 1992, members of the Violent Crime Analysis Branch of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, with contributions from members of the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) researched the most successful data collection methodologies available. This was performed in consultation with experienced investigators and profiles from a number of different agencies. A forensic psychiatrist (Collins) from the Clarke Institute of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, examined the latest behavioral research that could be incorporated in the program. The existing automated case linkage systems closely studied included: • • • • • • •
FBI Violent Crime Apprehension Program (VICAP) Iowa State Sex Crimes Analysis System Minnesota State Sex Crimes Analysis Program (MINN/SCAP) Washington State Homicide Investigation Tracking System (HITS) New York State Homicide Investigation and Lead (HALT) New Jersey Homicide Evaluation & Assessment Tracking (HEAT) Pennsylvania State ATAC Program
What were considered to be the best features in the above listed American linkage programs were ultimately included in ViCLAS. In comparison to already existing linkage systems, ViCLAS has broadened the scope of potential cases to be linked. American systems are geared toward collecting information on homicides. ViCLAS collects data on sexual offenses as well as homicides. The reason for this is due to the greater prevalence of sexual offenses compared to homicides in Canada, as well as the recognition that sexual assaults can be serial and the recognition that the escalation of violence which often occurs in sexual offenses, can lead to homicide [3].
ViCLAS DATA COLLECTION Eventually a 39-page data collection form consisting of 263 questions was developed (Figure 1). This is referred to as the “long” form (form #3364). The long form is intended to capture all solved or unsolved homicides and sexual assaults of a predatory
280
P. I. COLLINS et al.
nature, apparently random, motiveless, or that are known or suspected of being part a series. All other solved or unsolved homicides and attempts, for example a barroom brawl resulting in homicide, are captured on the “short” homicide form. It is used for non-serial or “one time” only events. This form also includes missing persons where the circumstances suggest a strong possibility of foul play and the victim is missing, all nonparental abductions, and unidentified bodies where the manner of death is known or suspected to be homicide (see Figure 1). The short form consists of 83 questions on eight pages. Solved and unsolved sexual assaults or attempts of predatory nature, where little detail is available, may be captured on a “short” sexual assault form (form #3384). In the event that a case is submitted on one of the short forms and analysis reveals that it may be linked to one or more other cases, the ViCLAS analyst responsible for that case will generate a “long” form. This will be returned to the investigator for completion so that additional details may be obtained for further analysis without repeating the original information. The ViCLAS forms combine the psychological principles of the fantasy-motivated behavior with information pertaining to the more common aspects of an investigation. The information sought includes data about the victim(s) of the crime, the suspected offender, the offender’s behavior during and after the crime(s), and the forensic information available. A computer system to store and manipulate this data was developed as was analytical methodologies for linking cases. The Major Crime File consisted of open-ended questions. ViCLAS uses closedended questions and multiple choice check box answers as the method of data capture. This allows the incorporation of behaviorally oriented questions that force an investigator to make a choice and, in many cases, give consideration to issues that they may not have otherwise reported. These issues include, for example, manner of initial approach; motive for the offense; the presence or absence of bindings and the way they were applied, etc. This information can then be interpreted by trained ViCLAS specialists or profilers and a conclusion may be reached as to if the offender was organized or disorganized in his attack and potentially identify “signature” aspects of the offense. The formatted fields are supplemented by narrative synopsis in the Sequence of Events and Narrative Summary parts of the form. The investigator supplies this information. It ensures that analysts obtain the information in a manner that investigators are traditionally comfortable in reporting, as well as being able to contrast the investigator’s narrative to their answers in the formatted fields. The comparison of these two sources of information allows for a better evaluation of the accuracy of the answers provided, particularly when supplemented by a victim’s statement. Victim statements are routinely supplied if they are available. Once the form is completed, data is reviewed and entered by a specially trained individual, who has privileged access to the system. Confidentiality of the information collected is controlled—not only by password but also by a sophisticated audit tracking system that is engaged once any information is entered onto the system as “sensitive.” Confidentiality is also ensured by the “third party rule” so that only generic information such as crime classification, reporting agency, file number, case status, offense date, investigator’s name, and telephone numbers are released to another agency once a potential link is made. A subsection of Question 263 is a request for “key fact” or “hold back” evidence, which the investigator does not want released and for that information to be “highlighted” on the form. This is crucial information for the ViCLAS analyst or profiler to know but guarantees the investigator that it will be held in confidence. If a positive link
Violent Crime Linkage Analysis
Figure 1. ViCLAS data collection example.
281
282
P. I. COLLINS et al.
is identified, the job of ViCLAS analyst is to have the investigators from the two or more jurisdictions contact each other to promote communication. ViCLAS was designed for front end personal computer (PC) processing and access through Microsoft’s FoxPro for Windows. FoxPro was chosen primarily because it was a relational database in a Windows environment that could be written to be user friendly and was the fastest available PC database at that time. With advances in technology, since the ViCLAS initial development, ViCLAS programmers are now exploring more powerful tools that would add flexibility and enhance performance in order to improve the program’s capabilities. The database of information is stored nationally on a mainframe. Individual analysts download the database at their own local PC client server. Information is continually tracked and audited once access is gained, allowing appropriate protection of information deemed to be confidential or sensitive. A second level of security for confidential information is added to ensure that different agencies are allowed only generic information once a potential link is identified. At the present time, ViCLAS operates at 11 “stand alone” sites. Some of these sites are networked on a LAN to accommodate multiple users at individual sites. The final manual merge of the 11 sites is scheduled for the autumn of 1996. Each site will forward its diskette to programmers at the RCMP Headquarters, in Ottawa, where the data will be merged in a dedicated file server to form the national data bank. The combined information will then be redistributed to each site to be uploaded. This procedure will be performed on a weekly basis via modem. All data transmissions are encrypted on dedicated lines, and no dial out is possible from the server. The upload/download process will occur in one communication transaction, which will assure the integrity of the database. The structure of the system in which values or codes are assigned to a question and answer overcomes language barriers because the questions and corresponding answers are actually stored as codes and referenced by a “look up” table. The table interprets the code, irrespective of the language appearing on either the form or computer screen, and interprets the code/language according to the reference table. Data is analyzed electronically as each question and answer option is assigned a value, thus eliminating subjectivity found in other systems that rely heavily on the use of the investigator’s narrative to describe a crime. Standardization for coding of data was developed partly because Canada has two official languages and the inherent difficulties in the translation of investigative reports. This standardized computer valuation of data inputted thus allows data collection and entry to be multilingual, opening up the use of a system like ViCLAS to large areas such as Europe where language barriers may hinder a multi-jurisdictional investigation of a mobile offender. Irrespective of the language of choice, a query can be run effectively in any language provided the query does not involve a narrative “text field.” ViCLAS has been designed to facilitate exchange of information with older crime linkage systems already successfully implemented in the United States. Australia, New Zealand, The Netherlands National Police Agency, the Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior (State Police), and the Belgian Police are currently using ViCLAS in linkage analysis because of this ease of information transfer. Currently, the U.S. FBI is also in the process of revising VICAP to take advantage of improved automated linkage technology that has become available. CASE STUDY To test the research findings and new data collection methodology, a downsized prototype of ViCLAS, one of the authors (Davidson) from the RCMP in British Columbia
Violent Crime Linkage Analysis
283
developed a downsized prototype. The following case is a good example of how a system such as ViCLAS can assist investigators. In June 1992, a 15-year-old girl was walking home from school. She followed her usual route through a heavily wooded public park. Once she was out of sight along the pathway, she was attacked by an unknown male who struck her over the head and dragged her into the dense underbrush. The girl was repeatedly sexually assaulted, being forced to perform fellatio, and engage in sodomy, vaginal intercourse, and cunnilingus. The offender threatened to kill her or her father if she reported the attack to the police. The assailant made no attempt to disguise himself. The girl was released, returned home, and the police were notified. Due to the age of the victim and the location and time of the vicious assault, the case received a lot of media attention. The case was followed by all the newspapers, radio, and television networks in the lower mainland of British Columbia. The police artist’s composite drawing of the offender was well publicized. The investigating agency received approximately 700 tips from the public, which had to be followed, consuming a tremendous amount of investigative resources. After four months, all investigative leads had been exhausted with no viable suspect identified. A ViCLAS data collection form was forwarded to the regional analyst who then entered the particulars of the case into the system. Within an hour of inputting the data, a suspect from a community 500 miles north was identified. Links were also found to crimes in another police jurisdiction where no suspect had surfaced. Three different police jurisdictions were notified and they immediately started to share information. A photo of the suspect was provided to investigators and the victim subsequently identified him in a photo “line-up.” Upon arrest, the suspect admitted to his crime and was subsequently tried and convicted. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In June 1996, Justice Archie Campbell released the results of his judicial inquiry into the police investigation of Paul Bernardo, a serial rapist and murderer who went undetected for five years. Although ViCLAS was not developed until after Bernardo’s assaults, Justice Campbell recognized that ViCLAS most likely would have led to Bernardo during the period of his sexual assaults and prior to the homicides he committed [4]. Justice Campbell pointed out the irony that although ViCLAS has received “international recognition and accolades as the best crime linkage system in the world, it is used in Ontario to a small fraction of its capacity, in part because there is no regulation that requires police forces to use it” [5]. Detective Inspector Kate Lines of the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) Behavioral Science Section has echoed this sentiment, noting that in the two and one-half years since ViCLAS was introduced, the OPP have only entered a total of 1,387 cases—a small percentage of the estimated 16,500 cases that might legitimately be entered into the system each year [6]. In 1995, under 30 percent of Ontario’s murders and under 6 percent of Ontario’s level serious sexual assaults were entered on ViCLAS. As it stands, in the summer of 1996, approximately 90 percent of all ViCLAS entries are west of the Province of Ontario. This has led to a call to make ViCLAS mandatory in Ontario and was one of the recommendations of the Campbell report [7]. In anticipation of ViCLAS being mandated under the existing Police Services Act, the Ontario Provincal Police have increased their ViCLAS analysis section fivefold. Even with investigators being required to complete the ViCLAS forms, the marketing of this tool still has to take place through the education of police. For example, during a presentation to the Vancouver Police Department two members of that depart-
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ment spoke to an RCMP ViCLAS analyst concerning a series of sexual assaults against prostitutes that occurred in the late 1980s. These two officers felt that a certain individual was responsible but an arrest was never made. Upon completion of the data form, the analyst was able to make a positive link with a decade-old abduction, rape, and murder of a 12-year-old girl which had shocked the city of Toronto. In part, that case was solved due to positive ViCLAS link. Cases like that serve to be the most effective way to convince investigators of the value of ViCLAS. CONCLUSION ViCLAS represents the application of the latest technology in crime linkage analysis to assist in criminal investigation. The field of automated crime linkage is rapidly developing and advancements in data collection, coding, and analysis have led to a more effective tool with potential for international use. Ubiquitous computerization of data needs to lead to additional research to evaluate the scope of the effectiveness of such tools for ongoing revisions and development. Multidisciplinary research must also be conducted with this expanding database towards the phenomena associated with serial violent and sexual crimes. NOTES 1. Vernon J. Gerberth, “The Serial Killer and the Revelations of Ted Bundy,” Law and Order 38 (May 1984): 72–77. 2. Greg Johnson, “Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System,” Royal Canadian Mounted Police Gazette 56 (October 1994): 9–13. 3. Ann W. Burgess, Carol R. Harman, Robert K. Ressler, et al., “Sexual Homicide: A Motivational Model,” Journal of Interpersonal Violence 1 (September 1986): 251–72. 4. Archie Campbell, Bernardo Investigation Review, Government of Ontario (Canada), 1996. 5. Campbell, Bernardo Investigation Review, 298. 6. Kathryn Lines, Unit Commander, Ontario (Canada) Provincial Police, discussion with authors, fall 1996. 7. Campbell, Bernardo Investigation Review, 296.
PII S1352-0237(98)00008-2
ADVANCES IN VIOLENT CRIME ANALYSIS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT: THE CANADIAN VIOLENT CRIME LINKAGE ANALYSIS SYSTEM PETER I. COLLINS Forensic Psychiatrist, Behavioural Sciences Section, Ontario Provincial Police, Assistant Professor, University of Toronto, Clarke Institute of Psychiatry, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5T 1R8. Internet: [email protected]
GREGORY F. JOHNSON Inspector, Officer i/c Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System, Technical Operations Directorate, Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Ottawa, Canada. Internet: [email protected]
ALBERTO CHOY Clinical Fellow, Forensic Division, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada. Internet: [email protected]
KEITH T. DAVIDSON Sergeant, NCO i/c Criminal Behaviour Analysis Section, Pacific Region, Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Vancouver, Canada. Internet: [email protected]
RONALD E. MACKAY Inspector (retired), Royal Canadian Mounted Police, President, Ron MacKay and Associates, Forensic Behavior Analysis, Ottawa, Canada. Internet: [email protected]
Abstract — After two years of research and development, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), in conjunction with the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP), introduced the Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System (ViCLAS). This computerized system allows trained specialists to link crimes such as serial homicide and serial sexual assaults. ViCLAS represents the application of the latest technology in crime linkage analysis to assist in criminal investigation. Now considered to be the “gold standard” of linkage analysis systems, it has been adopted by Australia, The Netherlands, Belgium, and Austria with 10 other nations examining the possibility of using ViCLAS. In the United States, Indiana and Tennessee use the system. This article examines the evolution and development of ViCLAS and its contribution to criminal investigation. © 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd Keywords — Law enforcement, Linkage analysis, Serial crimes
Jurisdictional boundaries and the inability of law enforcement agencies to communicate with each other allows transient killers to avoid identification and capture. Theodore (Ted) Bundy [1]
INTRODUCTION For many years law enforcement agencies have noted an ability of perpetrators of serial violent crimes to elude authorities. As indicated by the above statement made by 277
278
P. I. COLLINS et al.
the notorious serial killer, Ted Bundy, serial criminals are aware of this failure between agencies to communicate with each other. This leads to some serial offenders being able to evade detection. Bundy is believed to have committed in excess of 30 murders, in a number of jurisdictions in the United States, over a period of five years [1]. Traditionally, most municipal and regional police use the time-honored method of trying to link major unsolved crimes in their locale by manually listing the crimes and the sets of details garnered from the investigation of the crime, witness statements, and evidence found in one area. With this information physically laid out in one space, investigative teams may be able to link similar factors surrounding crimes to aid further in the investigation and ideally the eventual arrest of the suspect. Efforts to automate and advance the process of case linkage date back to the mid1980s in the United States. In the last three years, Canada has introduced an advanced automated case linkage system, the Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System (ViCLAS), which has attracted international attention because of its advancements in data analysis and linkage, and its added benefit in overcoming language barriers which may be a factor in some cross-jurisdictional and/or international investigations. AUTOMATED CASE LINKAGE SYSTEMS Automated case linkage is a term used to describe a computerized data base collection of information about solved or unsolved crimes. Investigators use the database to find similarities among the cases which may provide law enforcement officials with further information about the identification of potential suspects for an unsolved case or, in fact, a previously unrelated series of cases. In 1985, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) introduced an automated case linkage system, known as the Violent Crime Apprehension Program (VICAP). After a series of several complex, multi-jurisdictional, serial homicide investigations in the mid-1980s, Canadian law enforcement officials introduced a system that was required to identify and track serial violent crime/criminals. The Canadian Police Information Center (CPIC) Advisory Committee, comprised of the major police services across the country, agreed on the need for a central repository to capture, collate, and compare violent crimes. As a result, the Major Crime File (MCF) was developed and introduced as Canada’s first attempt at automated case linkage. The Major Crime File was a text-based narrative search database that was capable of querying only keywords and/or phrases and the data collection was by investigators in the field. The data collection methodology included a blank form with formatted fields for the traditional “tombstone” information that would typically be captured on investigative reports. Completed questionnaires would then be forwarded to regional analysts in the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, (RCMP) who would input the data. The Major Crime File relied on the accuracy and completeness of investigator’s reporting on the fill-in-the-blank MCF data collection form, coupled with the need for accuracy of data entry [2]. By 1990, the MCF had approximately 800 cases in the database; however, no hits (linkages) had occurred and the system had acquired a very poor reputation as an investigative aid. The primary weakness with the MCF was that query results were either too broad or too narrow, incumbent on the search criteria, and there was no methodology for capturing behaviorally based information. In many cases this behaviorally based information would be dependent on the investigator’s interpretation of the crime scene and assumed that he or she had any insight, awareness, or recollection of those is-
Violent Crime Linkage Analysis
279
sues. The MCF reporting form was also awkward and laborious to complete and was not well received by investigators. Ultimately, the MCF was never successful and never met the expectations of its creators. CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIVE ANALYSIS AND ViCLAS The unfortunate limitations in the data collection and, resulting failure of the MCF, led to a new Canadian initiative called Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System (ViCLAS). This was fuelled by one of the authors (MacKay) who returned from training at the FBI Behavioral Science Unit and eventually formed the Violent Crime Analysis Branch at RCMP Headquarters. There was the realization that an automated case linkage system would have to utilize some of the behavioral principles applied in criminal investigative analysis (commonly called psychological profiling) to identify and track serial violent crime and criminals. The goal was to develop a program that utilized the psychiatric, psychological, and behavioral principles used to identify serial violent crimes and criminals whose offenses are typically fantasy-based and driven. From May 1991 until the end of 1992, members of the Violent Crime Analysis Branch of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, with contributions from members of the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) researched the most successful data collection methodologies available. This was performed in consultation with experienced investigators and profiles from a number of different agencies. A forensic psychiatrist (Collins) from the Clarke Institute of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, examined the latest behavioral research that could be incorporated in the program. The existing automated case linkage systems closely studied included: • • • • • • •
FBI Violent Crime Apprehension Program (VICAP) Iowa State Sex Crimes Analysis System Minnesota State Sex Crimes Analysis Program (MINN/SCAP) Washington State Homicide Investigation Tracking System (HITS) New York State Homicide Investigation and Lead (HALT) New Jersey Homicide Evaluation & Assessment Tracking (HEAT) Pennsylvania State ATAC Program
What were considered to be the best features in the above listed American linkage programs were ultimately included in ViCLAS. In comparison to already existing linkage systems, ViCLAS has broadened the scope of potential cases to be linked. American systems are geared toward collecting information on homicides. ViCLAS collects data on sexual offenses as well as homicides. The reason for this is due to the greater prevalence of sexual offenses compared to homicides in Canada, as well as the recognition that sexual assaults can be serial and the recognition that the escalation of violence which often occurs in sexual offenses, can lead to homicide [3].
ViCLAS DATA COLLECTION Eventually a 39-page data collection form consisting of 263 questions was developed (Figure 1). This is referred to as the “long” form (form #3364). The long form is intended to capture all solved or unsolved homicides and sexual assaults of a predatory
280
P. I. COLLINS et al.
nature, apparently random, motiveless, or that are known or suspected of being part a series. All other solved or unsolved homicides and attempts, for example a barroom brawl resulting in homicide, are captured on the “short” homicide form. It is used for non-serial or “one time” only events. This form also includes missing persons where the circumstances suggest a strong possibility of foul play and the victim is missing, all nonparental abductions, and unidentified bodies where the manner of death is known or suspected to be homicide (see Figure 1). The short form consists of 83 questions on eight pages. Solved and unsolved sexual assaults or attempts of predatory nature, where little detail is available, may be captured on a “short” sexual assault form (form #3384). In the event that a case is submitted on one of the short forms and analysis reveals that it may be linked to one or more other cases, the ViCLAS analyst responsible for that case will generate a “long” form. This will be returned to the investigator for completion so that additional details may be obtained for further analysis without repeating the original information. The ViCLAS forms combine the psychological principles of the fantasy-motivated behavior with information pertaining to the more common aspects of an investigation. The information sought includes data about the victim(s) of the crime, the suspected offender, the offender’s behavior during and after the crime(s), and the forensic information available. A computer system to store and manipulate this data was developed as was analytical methodologies for linking cases. The Major Crime File consisted of open-ended questions. ViCLAS uses closedended questions and multiple choice check box answers as the method of data capture. This allows the incorporation of behaviorally oriented questions that force an investigator to make a choice and, in many cases, give consideration to issues that they may not have otherwise reported. These issues include, for example, manner of initial approach; motive for the offense; the presence or absence of bindings and the way they were applied, etc. This information can then be interpreted by trained ViCLAS specialists or profilers and a conclusion may be reached as to if the offender was organized or disorganized in his attack and potentially identify “signature” aspects of the offense. The formatted fields are supplemented by narrative synopsis in the Sequence of Events and Narrative Summary parts of the form. The investigator supplies this information. It ensures that analysts obtain the information in a manner that investigators are traditionally comfortable in reporting, as well as being able to contrast the investigator’s narrative to their answers in the formatted fields. The comparison of these two sources of information allows for a better evaluation of the accuracy of the answers provided, particularly when supplemented by a victim’s statement. Victim statements are routinely supplied if they are available. Once the form is completed, data is reviewed and entered by a specially trained individual, who has privileged access to the system. Confidentiality of the information collected is controlled—not only by password but also by a sophisticated audit tracking system that is engaged once any information is entered onto the system as “sensitive.” Confidentiality is also ensured by the “third party rule” so that only generic information such as crime classification, reporting agency, file number, case status, offense date, investigator’s name, and telephone numbers are released to another agency once a potential link is made. A subsection of Question 263 is a request for “key fact” or “hold back” evidence, which the investigator does not want released and for that information to be “highlighted” on the form. This is crucial information for the ViCLAS analyst or profiler to know but guarantees the investigator that it will be held in confidence. If a positive link
Violent Crime Linkage Analysis
Figure 1. ViCLAS data collection example.
281
282
P. I. COLLINS et al.
is identified, the job of ViCLAS analyst is to have the investigators from the two or more jurisdictions contact each other to promote communication. ViCLAS was designed for front end personal computer (PC) processing and access through Microsoft’s FoxPro for Windows. FoxPro was chosen primarily because it was a relational database in a Windows environment that could be written to be user friendly and was the fastest available PC database at that time. With advances in technology, since the ViCLAS initial development, ViCLAS programmers are now exploring more powerful tools that would add flexibility and enhance performance in order to improve the program’s capabilities. The database of information is stored nationally on a mainframe. Individual analysts download the database at their own local PC client server. Information is continually tracked and audited once access is gained, allowing appropriate protection of information deemed to be confidential or sensitive. A second level of security for confidential information is added to ensure that different agencies are allowed only generic information once a potential link is identified. At the present time, ViCLAS operates at 11 “stand alone” sites. Some of these sites are networked on a LAN to accommodate multiple users at individual sites. The final manual merge of the 11 sites is scheduled for the autumn of 1996. Each site will forward its diskette to programmers at the RCMP Headquarters, in Ottawa, where the data will be merged in a dedicated file server to form the national data bank. The combined information will then be redistributed to each site to be uploaded. This procedure will be performed on a weekly basis via modem. All data transmissions are encrypted on dedicated lines, and no dial out is possible from the server. The upload/download process will occur in one communication transaction, which will assure the integrity of the database. The structure of the system in which values or codes are assigned to a question and answer overcomes language barriers because the questions and corresponding answers are actually stored as codes and referenced by a “look up” table. The table interprets the code, irrespective of the language appearing on either the form or computer screen, and interprets the code/language according to the reference table. Data is analyzed electronically as each question and answer option is assigned a value, thus eliminating subjectivity found in other systems that rely heavily on the use of the investigator’s narrative to describe a crime. Standardization for coding of data was developed partly because Canada has two official languages and the inherent difficulties in the translation of investigative reports. This standardized computer valuation of data inputted thus allows data collection and entry to be multilingual, opening up the use of a system like ViCLAS to large areas such as Europe where language barriers may hinder a multi-jurisdictional investigation of a mobile offender. Irrespective of the language of choice, a query can be run effectively in any language provided the query does not involve a narrative “text field.” ViCLAS has been designed to facilitate exchange of information with older crime linkage systems already successfully implemented in the United States. Australia, New Zealand, The Netherlands National Police Agency, the Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior (State Police), and the Belgian Police are currently using ViCLAS in linkage analysis because of this ease of information transfer. Currently, the U.S. FBI is also in the process of revising VICAP to take advantage of improved automated linkage technology that has become available. CASE STUDY To test the research findings and new data collection methodology, a downsized prototype of ViCLAS, one of the authors (Davidson) from the RCMP in British Columbia
Violent Crime Linkage Analysis
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developed a downsized prototype. The following case is a good example of how a system such as ViCLAS can assist investigators. In June 1992, a 15-year-old girl was walking home from school. She followed her usual route through a heavily wooded public park. Once she was out of sight along the pathway, she was attacked by an unknown male who struck her over the head and dragged her into the dense underbrush. The girl was repeatedly sexually assaulted, being forced to perform fellatio, and engage in sodomy, vaginal intercourse, and cunnilingus. The offender threatened to kill her or her father if she reported the attack to the police. The assailant made no attempt to disguise himself. The girl was released, returned home, and the police were notified. Due to the age of the victim and the location and time of the vicious assault, the case received a lot of media attention. The case was followed by all the newspapers, radio, and television networks in the lower mainland of British Columbia. The police artist’s composite drawing of the offender was well publicized. The investigating agency received approximately 700 tips from the public, which had to be followed, consuming a tremendous amount of investigative resources. After four months, all investigative leads had been exhausted with no viable suspect identified. A ViCLAS data collection form was forwarded to the regional analyst who then entered the particulars of the case into the system. Within an hour of inputting the data, a suspect from a community 500 miles north was identified. Links were also found to crimes in another police jurisdiction where no suspect had surfaced. Three different police jurisdictions were notified and they immediately started to share information. A photo of the suspect was provided to investigators and the victim subsequently identified him in a photo “line-up.” Upon arrest, the suspect admitted to his crime and was subsequently tried and convicted. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In June 1996, Justice Archie Campbell released the results of his judicial inquiry into the police investigation of Paul Bernardo, a serial rapist and murderer who went undetected for five years. Although ViCLAS was not developed until after Bernardo’s assaults, Justice Campbell recognized that ViCLAS most likely would have led to Bernardo during the period of his sexual assaults and prior to the homicides he committed [4]. Justice Campbell pointed out the irony that although ViCLAS has received “international recognition and accolades as the best crime linkage system in the world, it is used in Ontario to a small fraction of its capacity, in part because there is no regulation that requires police forces to use it” [5]. Detective Inspector Kate Lines of the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) Behavioral Science Section has echoed this sentiment, noting that in the two and one-half years since ViCLAS was introduced, the OPP have only entered a total of 1,387 cases—a small percentage of the estimated 16,500 cases that might legitimately be entered into the system each year [6]. In 1995, under 30 percent of Ontario’s murders and under 6 percent of Ontario’s level serious sexual assaults were entered on ViCLAS. As it stands, in the summer of 1996, approximately 90 percent of all ViCLAS entries are west of the Province of Ontario. This has led to a call to make ViCLAS mandatory in Ontario and was one of the recommendations of the Campbell report [7]. In anticipation of ViCLAS being mandated under the existing Police Services Act, the Ontario Provincal Police have increased their ViCLAS analysis section fivefold. Even with investigators being required to complete the ViCLAS forms, the marketing of this tool still has to take place through the education of police. For example, during a presentation to the Vancouver Police Department two members of that depart-
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ment spoke to an RCMP ViCLAS analyst concerning a series of sexual assaults against prostitutes that occurred in the late 1980s. These two officers felt that a certain individual was responsible but an arrest was never made. Upon completion of the data form, the analyst was able to make a positive link with a decade-old abduction, rape, and murder of a 12-year-old girl which had shocked the city of Toronto. In part, that case was solved due to positive ViCLAS link. Cases like that serve to be the most effective way to convince investigators of the value of ViCLAS. CONCLUSION ViCLAS represents the application of the latest technology in crime linkage analysis to assist in criminal investigation. The field of automated crime linkage is rapidly developing and advancements in data collection, coding, and analysis have led to a more effective tool with potential for international use. Ubiquitous computerization of data needs to lead to additional research to evaluate the scope of the effectiveness of such tools for ongoing revisions and development. Multidisciplinary research must also be conducted with this expanding database towards the phenomena associated with serial violent and sexual crimes. NOTES 1. Vernon J. Gerberth, “The Serial Killer and the Revelations of Ted Bundy,” Law and Order 38 (May 1984): 72–77. 2. Greg Johnson, “Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System,” Royal Canadian Mounted Police Gazette 56 (October 1994): 9–13. 3. Ann W. Burgess, Carol R. Harman, Robert K. Ressler, et al., “Sexual Homicide: A Motivational Model,” Journal of Interpersonal Violence 1 (September 1986): 251–72. 4. Archie Campbell, Bernardo Investigation Review, Government of Ontario (Canada), 1996. 5. Campbell, Bernardo Investigation Review, 298. 6. Kathryn Lines, Unit Commander, Ontario (Canada) Provincial Police, discussion with authors, fall 1996. 7. Campbell, Bernardo Investigation Review, 296.