Assessing urban containment policies within a suburban context—An approach to enable a regional perspective

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Assessing urban containment policies within a suburban context—An approach to enable a regional perspective Mathias Jehling a,∗ , Robert Hecht b , Hendrik Herold b a b

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Regional Science, Kaiserstraße 12, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development, Weberplatz 1, 01217 Dresden, Germany

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history: Received 3 June 2016 Received in revised form 19 October 2016 Accepted 23 October 2016 Available online xxx Keywords: Urban containment policy Suburban Geographic information Building stock Population Accessibility

a b s t r a c t Regarding suburbanisation, land policies in many countries have undergone profound changes over the past 20 years. While experiencing high growth rates of urban land, policies were reconsidered and adapted with the goal of limiting land consumption in favour of a more sustainable urban development. These changes aim at a higher effectiveness in steering urbanisation processes to limit environmental impacts, but also are criticized regarding possible effects on a sufficient supply of housing. To this regard, also German urban planning policies show considerable dynamics. After several urban containment policies were introduced, the question arises on how to empirically assess their effects. Therefore, monitoring approaches with a regional perspective become more and more relevant, as polycentric, suburban settlement structures constitute the spatial but also institutional context of urban containment policies. Considering suburbanisation as a global phenomenon, we develop a monitoring approach, which allows for a quantitative and qualitative assessment within suburban settlement structures. We propose a set of indicators that integrates urban structure, regional accessibility and usage by population. As data is scarce for a city-regional perspective, we combine geospatial methods for an automatic identification of building types from topographic data and maps, for measuring multi-modal accessibility and for small scale demographic analysis. The approach is applied to the case of a German city-region with splintered planning institutions. The results of the small-scale, but also comprehensive regional analysis allow for a detailed discussion of effects of policy changes on the settlement structure. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Unprecedented expansion of urban use of land has fuelled an ongoing international discussion on land policies. After decades of suburbanisation, suburban settlement patterns characterise the spatial context and also determine the institutional framework of land policies (Keil, 2013a; Hamel and Keil, 2015). From an environmental point of view, the phenomenon of suburbanisation is closely linked to land consumption and seen as the key challenge for sustainable urban development (Jaeger and Schwick, 2014). Suburbanisation’s prevalence raises questions about the role of land use polices, which are intended to distribute land, considered a scarce resource (Needham, 2007), efficiently among competing uses. Hence, a critical debate and reconsideration of land policies, which shape settlement structures and their evolution, is required. At the same time, such a discussion needs to acknowledge the

∗ Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (M. Jehling).

already existing suburban context within which policies to better contain urban development are applied. Consequently, indicators need to be developed that allow for linking policy changes to spatial processes and can support this highly relevant debate. In this article we develop and reflect on possible indicators for enabling an assessment of urban containment policies. 1.1. Need for changes in land policies Suburbanisation is defined as “an increase in non-central city population and economic activity, as well as urban spatial expansion” (Keil, 2013b, p. 9). It is this spatial expansion that raises concerns over environmental impacts such as the loss of agricultural land, loss of soil functions, traffic induced by de-densification and further related social as well as economic side-effects like rising infrastructure costs (Joerissen and Coenen, 2007; Siedentop, 2010). The increasing awareness of the negative impacts of suburbanisation has sparked an international debate on the “capacity and opportunity” of land policies to recycle land (Dair and Williams, 2006) and thus contain urban expansion. More generally, the effec-

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tiveness of land policies in their function as the legal framework for the distribution of urban growth has come increasingly under question. In light of these concerns, land policies need to be reassessed and reconsidered (Hennig et al., 2015). Specifically, land policies need to be adapted to redirect urban development towards infill development such as redevelopment of brownfield sites and the adaptation of existing settlement structures by means of densification or by revitalizing older existing neighbourhoods (Ganser and Williams, 2007; Burchell et al., 2000; Downs, 2005). Adaptations in national planning systems can already be seen, e.g., in quantitative, mandatory limits for urban expansion like in England (Ganser and William, 2007) or in political objectives for reducing land consumption, which have been implemented in several European countries (Decoville and Schneider, 2015). In Germany, the national government initiated a programme in 2002 that stressed the spatial dimension of sustainability. In the programme, a first quantitative goal on land consumption was set: By 2020 greenfield development shall not exceed 30 ha per day, (known as 30 ha target) (Bundesregierung, 2002; Joerissen and Coenen, 2007; Davy, 2010). The latest environmental report of the German Advisory Council on the Environment even argues for a net zero target by 2030 (SRU, 2016). Following up on the 30 ha target, a broad academic and political debate discussed options for changes in land policies to better contain urban expansion (Henger and Bizer, 2010; Bock et al., 2011; Bizer et al., 2009; Lieber and Preuss, 2010). As a consequence, new informal and formal planning instruments were developed and partly integrated into direct and indirect land policies. The German Federal Building Code (“BauGB”) that regulates urban planning of municipalities has been amended in several steps. In 2004, the objectives of sustainability and urban redevelopment were introduced as objectives for municipal land use planning. In 2007, redevelopment was further encouraged by reducing planning regulatory requirements for infill development. Since 2013, German law requires municipalities to mandatory proof screen for infill opportunities (Söfker, 2014). Also indirect policies, e.g. national incentives with a side effect of encouraging development on greenfield sites for the financing of residential real estate, were withdrawn (Umweltbundesamt, 2010). The evolution of German land policies shows an ongoing effort to implement the concept of urban containment, also referred to as land thrift (‘flächenhaushalt’) in the German context (Davy, 2009). 1.2. Assessing envisaged changes The ongoing adaptation of land policies raises interest in an assessment of the spatial effects of the policy changes. This, firstly, requires a framework for analysing urban containment policies and, secondly, demands the development of indicators to measure spatial effects. Addressing the need to describe the underlying principles and rationales of land policies, Hartmann and Spit (2015) provide a systematic framework enabling a perspective that covers more than just technical functionality of land policies. They propose the four criteria of legitimacy, effectiveness, efficiency and justice as components of a comprehensive explanatory model for planning systems and instruments. Democratic legitimacy relates to the degree to which governmental intervention is in accordance with societal demands and goals. Efficiency relates “the outcome – the built environment – to the effort, namely the land management approach” in terms of costs (Hartmann and Spit, 2015, 731). Effectiveness of a policy describes the “grade of achievement” of a planning goal and thus contrasts policy objectives and changes in space (Hartmann and Spit, 2015, 731). Justice in general captures the fairness of the distribution of goods by spatial planning. Three alternative concepts of justice are distinguished: utilitarian, liberal and social justice. Consequently, what is understood as a just dis-

tribution depends on the concept. The first two criteria describe the functions of land policies themselves. Effectiveness and justice in contrast address also the effects of land policies on space and society. In order to assess land thrift policies, it is these latter two effects that we are interested in. Focusing on effectiveness and justice also enables us to identify a dilemma which is central for urban containment policies. The aim of limiting land consumption – in its utilitarian notion – means to enhance the economic and environmental justice of urban development, as it tries to reduce negative effects for the society. However, these overall benefits are obtained at the costs of municipalities and households, which might rely on greenfield site development. In this regard, the German Association of Towns and Municipalities stressed possibly negative social consequences of land thrift policies, as they might compromise the creation of a sufficient supply of affordable housing. Further, the Association argued that in the end only larger cities with enough resources for infill development would be able to pursue urban development. The suburban fringes of city regions or peripheral rural areas might be deprived of development opportunities (Joerissen and Coenen, 2007). With this understanding, the effectiveness of land thrift policies can be assessed by its capacity to limit urban expansion and promote infill development. Justice, on the other hand, is seen in the distributional effect of policy changes. From a utilitarian perspective, the overall benefit of reduced land consumption needs to be compared to the costs resulting from the redirection of development rights for municipalities and supply of housing for the population. The justice of the distributional effect is determined by the redirection of development – either into more central or more peripheral locations in suburban city regions. A further step is to operationalise the criteria, to measure their effects in space and time with the aim of passing the results back into political debate. The diverse literature on approaches for measuring urban growth and urban sprawl are helpful in developing an analytical concept (e.g. Ewing, 1994; Torrens and Alberti, 2000; Siedentop and Fina 2010). In a recent study Decoville and Schneider (2015) e.g. focus on the amount of urbanisation with regard to quantitative limits set by national policy objectives, thus allowing for an estimation of effectiveness of urban containment policies on a national level. In Germany, official land use statistics on municipalities are employed to measure annual urban growth rates and contrast them with the 30 ha target (Umweltbundesamt, 2016). A spatial approach was developed by Meinel et al. (2009) and Meinel et al. (2011) that tracks urban development at the building level, giving more precise information on where urban growth appears. Focusing on urban sprawl, Jaeger et al. (2010) propose raster based, spatial indicators for including a measurement of the quality of urban expansion. They propose to measure the dispersion as well as the utilisation of urban area by inhabitants and jobs. Bervoets et al. (2014) go into more detail by analysing the use of floor area by inhabitants in suburban areas at the building level. Understanding the usage becomes particularly important when it comes to the analysis of distributional effects. While these approaches can be generally applied to analyse the effects of land thrift policies, an assessment of effectiveness and justice of land thrift policies within a suburban context requires consideration of further aspects, which so far has been hindered by data limitations (regarding data limitation in assessing land policies see for example Einig et al., 2011; Haußmann, 2014; Kroll and Haase, 2010; Siedentop and Fina, 2010). Hence, new ways of data acquisition need to be discussed. In Germany, one obstacle is the limitation of demographic data to show changes at a finer level of detail than the statistical level of municipalities (Kroll and Haase, 2010). A more detailed data source is required to measure distributional effects in the use of housing. A second obstacle lies in the need to define the location of urban development within the subur-

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ban context in order to consider the capacity of a policy to redirect growth and cover distributional aspects. As suburban city regions are more and more polycentric, the description of centrality and location also must reflect this polycentricism. To overcome this second obstacle, a measurement for accessibility within a transport network can be used (Curtis et al., 2013; Benenson et al., 2011; Danielzyk et al., 2014). The need to integrate data on settlement structure, population and accessibility in order to assess land thrift policies, hence, leads to the following research questions: • How can urban containment policies be assessed quantitatively in a comparable way? • Which data and indicators can be used to assess urban containment policies with regard to effectiveness and justice? • How can suburban city regions, as the dominant spatial context for the implementation of land policies, be included in an assessment? • How can effects of urban containment policies on a city regional settlement structure be identified and measured in space and time?

2. Method, data and indicators The method used to answer the research questions consists of three steps, which are applied in the analysis of a case study region (Fig. 1). First, concrete policy objectives that implement land thrift policies are operationalised to derive quantitative indicators. Next, based on the approaches to assess urban growth and urban sprawl mentioned above, measures of change in settlement structure, demography and accessibility on a regional scale are adapted and combined to form an integrated approach for analysis in a suburban city regional context. Finally, possible cause-effect relationships of policy and spatial changes are discussed and options for assessing land policies are proposed.

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per capita, and through in-migration characteristics (Adam et al., 2015). In addressing negative effects of suburbanisation, the Federal Building Code further requires land use planning to promote a compact urban form in order to reduce the need for individual motorised transport (policy 4). Land policies should guide development towards locations of good accessibility (Curtis et al., 2013). Bertolini et al. (2005, 209) define accessibility as “the amount and diversity of places that can be reached within a given travel time and/or cost”. Development of housing at locations of high accessibility means reduced travel requirements and, thus, less traffic generation. The effectiveness of compact development policies can be indicated by calculating the share of development at highly accessible locations. Relating changes in floor area and population to accessibility also allows us to discuss justice regarding spatial distribution of development opportunities and housing in a suburban context. We have now developed an integrated set of indicators, which enables an assessment of effectiveness and justice that links urban structure, population and accessibility. Next, we define a district level that integrates statistical units of urban districts in cities and built-up areas of municipalities and that allows for aggregation of data on joint spatial entities. These entities vary in size of population and building stock, however, they represent the smallest available spatial unit for historic demographic data. The method is elaborated and tested using the example of the Karlsruhe city region. In order to obtain transferable results, a case study approach is applied. According to the approach, the specific regional situation is analysed with regard to a theoretical background, ensuring a verifiability and reproducibility of the results (Yin, 2009). A first step to improve the transferability of the results is to adjust the spatial extent of the case study to a comparable delimitation of city regions. Therefore, we employ a standardized German city region definition, based on commuter rates. Municipalities with a rate of 25% of the work force commuting into the regional core are considered part of a city region (BBSR, 2015). 2.2. Spatio-temporal analysis of urban structure

2.1. Geographic indicators for land policies The analysis of the potential effects of land polices requires the formulation of specific indicators, which describe the policies’ intended effects. Most fundamentally, indicators must track processes, in order to link causes and effects between land policies and space (Batty, 2007). Land thrift as an over-arching policy goal appears in several formal and informal instruments and objectives. In this analysis, we select policy objectives of the Federal Building Code and the Sustainability Programme that cover central aspects of land thrift policy (Söfker, 2014; Ganser and Williams, 2007). According to the explanatory framework, the policies that intend to reduce and relocate development need to be assessed on the basis of effectiveness and justice. Table 1 shows the selected policies and the respective indicators. The effectiveness of the objective to reduce greenfield development (policy 1) is measured by the absolute change of floor area developed on greenfield sites. The main part of that reduction should be reached by promoting infill development (policy 2) and increasing the ratio of infill development to greenfield development to a 3:1 ratio (policy 3). To trace these effects, changes in both forms of development need to be differentiated accordingly. The small scale building level approach of Meinel et al. (2009) is considered adequate to analyse the changes of the settlement structure in this regard. From the perspective of justice, the policies are assessed on the basis of the supply of affordable housing (Dawkins and Nelson, 2002) and characteristics of demand. According to Jaeger et al. (2010) and Bervoets et al. (2014), supply and demand are measured based on the usage of floor area

Urban structure and its development are mainly the result of land policies. The buildings and their use are of key importance as they define the urban form and density, or the distribution of dwellings and population. Changes in the physical urban structure and development patterns are strongly related to decisions made at municipal level and the underlying land policy (made at higher levels). For this purpose, detailed knowledge on historical processes is required. Despite the important role for science, planning and politics, there is no nation-wide geospatial data base on the historical building stock available. Internationally, 3D-city models with additional information on building age exist only for a few major cities (e.g. Koomen et al., 2009 for Amsterdam). Hence, information on the level of individual buildings (e.g. building type, building height, number of floors, building function), particularly for city regions with smaller towns and rural settlements, is often missing, which makes comprehensive suburban analysis difficult. To address this, some approaches have been developed to collect multi-temporal information on urban structure in three dimensions using geospatial and remote sensing techniques (Dini et al., 2012; Doxani et al., 2012; Nebiker et al., 2014; Tian et al., 2014). In our study we use an automated approach to reconstruct the historical building stock by means of an analysis of geospatial topographic vector data and historical topographic raster maps at a scale of 1:25.000 (Meinel et al., 2009). Cartographic maps have proven to be useful in landscape change analysis (e.g. Kienast, 1993; Petit and Lambin, 2002; with regard to urban containment see: Millward,

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Fig. 1. Methodological approach to empirically assess land policies.

Table 1 Indicators to assess land thrift policies by their effects in a suburban context. Policy objective 1

reduction of greenfield development and 30 ha target Source: §1a(2)BauGB and Sustainability Programme of the German Government

2

promotion of infill development (densification, redevelopment or brownfield development) Source: §1a(2) and §13a BauGB infill/greenfield ratio of 3:1 Source: Sustainability Programme of the German Government promote compact urban form to avoid and reduce traffic Source: §1(6) Nr.9 BauGB

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4

Indicators Effectiveness: change of floor area on greenfield sites

Justice: supply of housing: change of population in relation to change of floor area demand characteristics: mean age of in-migrating persons

change of floor area on infill sites

share of infill development (change of infill floor area per change of greenfield floor area) change in floor area in relation to the accessibility of a district

2006). Building footprint data and a Digital Landscape Model (DLM) from national mapping and cadastral agencies serve as a basis for a detailed description of the current land use. Scanned analogue topographic maps are used as a data source for the retrieval of the historical building footprints. Using topographic paper maps instead of remote sensing imagery has a number of advantages, including considerably larger temporal coverage and a technically simpler way of extracting building footprints. Very high resolution satellite imagery is only available for the past few decades, but topographic paper maps also cover the “pre-digital” era. For descriptions of the building types in a present urban structure, information is obtained by means of an automated building classification process. In this case, we apply a data-driven pattern recognition approach, using the Random Forest algorithm (Hecht, 2014; Hecht et al., 2015). In the next step, additional building characteristics are calculated, including quantitative measures such as building area and floor area. Here, specific assumptions on the building height and the storey height are made in order to compute the number of storeys and the floor area for each building (Kunze and Hecht, 2015). To determine the approximate age of the buildings, topographic map sheets are analysed in order to check the existence of a particular building footprint at a specific time using the procedure described in Meinel et al. (2009). For that purpose, building footprints need to be extracted from the topographic raster maps using an image processing approach (Herold et al., 2012). This step includes a morphologic filtering which separates buildings from all non-building objects (map symbols, lettering etc.). In an object-based change detection process, homologous object representations in different points of time are spatially related to each other in order to estimate the building age.

development opportunities: change in floor area in relation to accessibility Supply of housing: change of population and change of floor area in relation to accessibility

Finally, the results are saved in a multi-temporal building database which serves as a basis for analysing development using the total change in the residential floor area differentiated according to the type of development, either greenfield development or infill development (Fig. 2). 2.3. Providing small-scale, spatially comprehensive demographic data A city regional analysis of demographic processes requires small-scale data to accommodate heterogeneous processes (Dittrich-Wesbuer et al., 2008). Historical data on population change over time with full coverage on a sub-municipal level is not available through official statistics in Germany. However, the data can be obtained from municipalities on request, as German municipalities typically archive such historical data (in paper lists). This data represents the demographic structure in one-year cohorts at the district-level in a given year. This allows for a fine-grained description of age structure and the estimation of demographic processes through the selection of successive time steps. The spatial unit of district facilitates relating population to the building stock and, hence, determining its use. The raw data has to be processed to obtain indicators such as number of inhabitants, in-migration, old age ratio (older than 70 years), child ratio (younger than 16 years) and mean age of population and of in-migrating people (Jehling, 2016). 2.4. Measuring accessibility in a polycentric suburban setting In general, the term accessibility describes the effort to reach a destination from a certain origin and the land use reflecting the

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Fig. 2. The approach of analysing changes in urban structure (source: blocks and buildings: ATKIS Basis-DLM © LGL-BW 2016; map: DTK25 © LGL-BW 2014).

attractiveness of that destination (Borzacchiello et al., 2010). Several approaches exist to take into consideration accessibility in a suburban context (Kroll and Kabisch, 2012; Borzacchiello et al., 2010; Siedentop, 2014). We deploy an approach that takes into account the increasing polycentricism of city regions and measures the accessibility of each location within a network. This approach relates a specific location within the region to all other locations with respect to accessibility impediments such as travel time and costs. Centrality measures for each location are calculated and applied (Curtis and Scheurer, 2010). Within a polycentric functional region potential daily mobility patterns of households can be shown. Curtis and Scheurer (2010) provide indicators for the accessibility within public transportation networks and road networks for motor traffic. Through network analysis, the closeness of a district i to all other districts (N-1) in terms of mean travel impediments (distance and speed) is shown (Schnabel and Lohse, 2011). We adopt and adapt these indicators: For the road network, closeness is used to describe the accessibility (AccS). The impediment (dsij = ds(mij /vij )) is measured by means of distance mij and traffic speed vij between the districts i and j.

of its closeness to other locations, the quality of transport and the provision of access.

AccRi =

 N / i s ∈ Ni j=1, j =



N−1

dr sj (Ni )

+

asj (N i )

 ·

Ai,r400 Ai, total

The data for the regional road and rail network is taken from OpenStreetMap (OSM) and has been proven to be complete. OSM is one of the most famous platforms for Volunteered Geographical Information. The quality of the road network in OSM can be regarded as good in Germany and has been studied by Zielstra and Zipf (2010) and Ludwig et al. (2011). Since 2010, OSM is also enriched with Location Code List (LCL) information from the German Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt) (Steiger and Zipf, 2015). For the network analysis, we deploy ArcGIS 10.2 and the ArcGIS extension Urban Network Analyzers (UNA) by Sevtsuk and Mekonnen (2012). Finally, the three analytical approaches for urban structure, population and accessibility are combined for the spatial analysis. The district level is used to integrate the indicators.

3. Results AccSi =

N  j=1, j = / i

dsij (N − 1)

The accessibility of a district i within the rail network (AccR) is derived by taking account of the centrality of a stop s within that district, i.e. the impediment is calculated as the distance mij divided by the service frequency fij (drsj = dr(msj /fsj ). To further account for service quality, the number of transfer-free links (asj ) is taken into account (Curtis and Scheurer, 2010). The accessibility AccR of a district i is derived through the average of all stops Ni within the district. The provision of stops is considered as well (Benenson et al., 2011). We measure the provision in a district i by taking the ratio of floor area (Ai ) that is accessible within a distance of 400 m from at least one stop. Hence, we describe the accessibility by means

3.1. Study area, data and pre-processing The case study area, the city region of Karlsruhe, is situated in Germany near its border with France. The functional region, defined based on commuter rates, extends over parts of two separate German states, each with its own regional planning institutions and requirements. Hence, there is no unified regional planning in the Karlsruhe city region. The region consists of 50 independent municipalities. This fragmented institutional setting could be considered as typical for land use planning within a suburban constellation. Fig. 3 shows the delimitation and the settlement structure of the case study region. It also shows the sub-municipal districts which serve as statistical units. From a national socio-economic perspective, the city region is experiencing demographic growth and disposes of a strong economy.

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Fig. 3. Settlement structure and statistical units of the city region of Karlsruhe (source: borders: ALKIS® © LGL-BW 2013 and OpenStreetMap (CC-BY-SA); urban area: DLM250 © GeoBasis-DE/BKG 2016).

The following spatial analysis of the case study is based on data from three points in time. Comparing data from 1992, 2002 and 2012 allows for a look at the processes within two periods. From 1992 to 2002, strong suburbanisation is expected. From 2002 to 2012, the implementation of land thrift policies in the early 2000s should show effects. Data was acquired through the following steps: Topographic maps were retrieved from the relevant state offices for geo data. The demographic data was gathered by a survey in 2014. Population data was requested for 180 districts in the 50 municipalities. For 2012, demographic data covers all districts. Historical data for 151 districts is accessible. For 29 districts, no historical data could be gathered and a generalisation at municipality level had to be conducted. To be able to perform network analysis, network data had to be pre-processed. The geographic data of OpenStreetMap was corrected manually. For the road network, travel time on route segments was added according to road classification. The rail network was revised by comparing it to the official network representation of the network provider (KVV). Time table information was used to estimate service frequencies. After having individually preprocessed the data, the spatial analysis could be conducted on an integrated data set shown in Table 2.

3.2. Urban structure und processes: measuring effectiveness Urban structure and processes are analysed with respect to the effectiveness of policy changes. A first quantitative result refers to the total change of residential floor area within the city region. Within the two time periods from 1992 to 2002 and 2002 to 2012, the proportion of inner urban development to greenfield development has markedly changed. The quantity of newly developed residential floor area within existing settlement structures has

Fig. 4. Development of residential floor area in m2 .

clearly been rising, whereas residential floor area developed on greenfield sites has dropped (Fig. 4). The infill-greenfield ratio is roughly 3:2 for the 1990s, increasing to 4:1 in the 2000s. The absolute changes in development are derived from the analysis of spatially explicit changes. These allow for a closer look at the location of development. Fig. 5 highlights a part of the region, comprising urban areas of the City of Karlsruhe and northern suburban municipalities. Even in 1992–2002, infill development can be detected in larger urban areas of the City of Karlsruhe, and also in its suburban areas. Greenfield development happens at the fringe of specific suburban districts. In the 2000s, brownfield site developments increased in the central districts of the City of Karlsruhe. Further infill development took also place in the northern suburbs, linked to densification processes driven by high land values. In the second period, the extension of suburban residential zones into greenfield areas is still visible, yet to a lesser extent.

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Table 2 Origin, provision and time span of employed data. Developed/applied data

Basic data

Provider/source

Time span

urban structure

topographic maps

state office for geo data of Baden-Wurttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate

ATKIS building footprints

national mapping and cadastral agencies

maps of publishing dates 1996/1997 and 2005/2007 for Baden-Wurttemberg based on aerial photography which dates back two to three years before publishing; diverse dates for maps of Rhineland-Palatinate close to 1992 and 2002 2012

printed and digital lists of age structures on sub-municipal level collected directly from municipalities official statistics on age structure on municipal level

municipalities

1992, 2002 and 2012

statistical offices

1992, 2002 and 2012

OpenStreetMap timetable information

OpenStreetMap contributors Deutsche Bahn AG, KVV GmbH

2014 (dated back to 2012) 2014

population

accessibility

Fig. 5. Location of infill and greenfield development for both periods (source: see above).

3.3. Demographic structure and processes: measuring justice The change of population within the region’s districts (Fig. 6) shows a clear suburbanisation process in the 1990s, concurrent with population losses in the central districts of Karlsruhe. In the 2000s, growth is redirected to the regional centre. However, suburban growth still occurred in the second decade, especially in some districts in the Northern periphery, which still experience a considerable increase in population. In contrast, those districts located in the proximity of Karlsruhe centre are facing stagnation and decline, as are many peripheral districts. Also, differences within municipalities become apparent. Altogether, beyond the trend of suburbanisation and reurbanisation (Kroll and Kabisch, 2012), population change shows a heterogeneous mix of stagnation and growth. To better understand these two meta-processes, a more detailed analysis of the characteristics of the population dynamics needs to be conducted. Therefore, the mean age of in-migrating persons

is calculated. The results (Fig. 7) show a migration of young age groups into the urban centre and a migration of persons in the age group most likely to start a family into the suburban areas. The higher mean age of persons migrating to the suburbs can be most obviously seen when juxtaposing the two periods. Hence, even if overall population change suggest a redirection of migration back to city centres, the analysis reveals that suburbanisation of family-age households remains dominant, even while some central districts show ongoing in-migration by family-age groups. An integrated review of population dynamics and changes in residential floor area provides a basis for an estimation of the use of urban development (Fig. 8). This is done to estimate the allocation of floor space to housing. The results can be used in the assessment of the justice of land thrift policies. Looking at the urban development of the 1990s, a positive relation between the change in floor space and population is revealed. This trend cannot be seen in the following period, where districts experiencing new urban development do not show population growth, the districts with the highest

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Fig. 6. Percentage of population change in districts (represented by urban area) for both periods (source: see above).

Fig. 7. Mean age of in-migrating persons in districts for both periods (source: see above).

growth rates do not show urban development, and some districts with growth of floor space are actually losing population. The next question to address is how these patterns of growth, stagnation and shrinkage are related to the accessibility of their locations. 3.4. Accessibility within the city region of Karlsruhe: measuring efficiency and justice The accessibility measures describing the road and railroad network (Fig. 9) are combined to provide a basis for the analysis of

changes in floor area and population with regard to their location in the suburban city region (Fig. 10). In general, the analysis of the two time periods reveals a shift in total urban development from areas of higher accessibility to areas of lower accessibility. Especially areas of average to higher accessibility show reduced development. In areas of low accessibility more floor area has been developed. This shows an ongoing trend of suburban expansion which reflects the migration patterns shown above. In contrast, the change in the number of inhabitants obviously is directed towards districts of medium and higher accessibility. The first period shows

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Fig. 8. Change of floor area and population in districts For 1992–2002: Pearson’s r = 0.64, R2 = 0.4, p = 0. For 2002–2012: Pearson’s r = −0.06; R2 = 0.0, p = 0.4.

Fig. 9. Accessibility within the regional road (above) and railway network (below) (source: see above; network © OpenStreetMap (CC-BY-SA)).

a phase of strong suburbanisation with even a declining number of inhabitants in districts of high accessibility. The second period shows a more balanced change of inhabitants. The comparison of change in floor area and change in inhabitants raises the question, of whether housing demand is matched by supply at the appropriate location.

changing land policies. In the following, cause-effect relationships are discussed argumentatively by juxtaposing policy objectives and spatial changes (Table 3). By means of this approach, we are able to estimate the potential but also the limitations of the methodology.

4.1. From indicators to assessment 4. Discussion: towards comparable indicators for changing land policies? The results of the spatial analysis need to be discussed in the context of their applicability as indicators for an assessment of

The analysis shows an absolute decrease in greenfield development within the case study area. The quantitative objective of reducing urban expansion could hence be considered to be achieved for the Karlsruhe city region. Further, infill development is increasing. With a ratio of 4:1 in the second period, we could argue

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Fig. 10. Urban development and change of population regarding accessibility.

Table 3 Assessing changes in policies by reflecting on spatial processes. Policy objective 1

reduction of greenfield development and 30 ha target Source: §1a(2)BauGB and Sustainability Programme of the German Government

2

promotion of infill development (densification, redevelopment or brownfield development) Source: §1a(2) and §13a BauGB infill/greenfield ratio of 3:1 Source: Sustainability Programme of the German Government promote compact urban form to avoid and reduce traffic Source: §1(6) Nr.9 BauGB

3

4

Spatial process Effectiveness: amount of greenfield development is reduced

Justice: demand for housing at central locations tends to be higher than supply provided by infill development; overall, family-age households tend to move to peripheral locations

positive change in infill development

ratio of 4:1

urban development shows an ongoing decentralisation, likely to increase traffic volume

that a redirection of new urban development to existing urban areas has taken place. From this point of view, changes in land policies can be considered as being effective. To some degree, though, our measurements also count infill development within built-up areas which had been greenfield developments in the former period. This is caused by a specific form of land readjustment in Germany, which can considerably extend the time over which homes are constructed on greenfield sites (Hartmann and Spit, 2015). Because of this, greenfield development still plays an important role within municipal land use strategies. Regarding the justice of the 30 ha target and the question of limiting development opportunities for suburban or rural municipalities, we can state that those still seem to exist. As Klemme and Selle (2010) mention, municipalities are facing a dilemma in the provision of land. Even if political aims are clearly directed towards redevelopment, market forces and competition between suburbs for development incent them to offer greenfield sites for single family houses (Klemme and Selle, 2010). Accordingly, contrasting the two periods, we see that urban development is increasingly directed to areas of low accessibility, as it is typical for suburbanisation which follows lower land values. A redirection of urban growth to locations of higher accessibility as required by planning law could not be yet found.

development opportunities at locations of lower accessibility do exist

From the regional perspective, the effectiveness of policy objectives for a compact urban form on municipal level is questionable, as municipal planning has no authority over settlement structure at the city regional scale. Instead, the responsibility to contain peripheral development and avoid a direction of growth to trafficinducing locations is incumbent on regional planning. Although regional planning has gained importance in limiting suburbanisation, institutional fragmentation of functional city regions hinders coherent planning (Müller and Siedentop, 2004 in Henger and Bizer, 2010). Contrasting urban development to population growth, a time lag may appear. With more people either moving to or staying in urban centres, housing demand should induce the construction of more residential floor area. We can argue that redirection of urban development to centres cannot yet keep pace with population growth and housing demand in urban centres. To raise the provision of housing, legal conditions are required which would facilitate urban redevelopment beyond brownfield development, as this spatial resource becomes scarce. Subsequently, also older suburban building stocks should be considered for redeveloped (Bervoets et al., 2014). Our results imply that family households are forced to move to peripheral areas, as they cannot find what they consider to be appropriate living space offered at locations of

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good accessibility. A reduction of supply in the periphery coinciding with a lack of sufficient alternatives for redevelopment demands for a differentiated look on justice of land thrift policies (Hartmann and Spit, 2015). With regard to social justice − aiming at an equal, welfare-oriented distribution of land – challenges for the just provision of affordable housing become visible. Family households might be deprived of access to appropriate housing. Also, from perspective of libertarian justice – emphasizing the liberty of individuals and market mechanisms – the limitation of housing development by land thrift policies contradicts a just spatial development. Utilitarian justice, which constitutes the moral basis for land thrift policies, was chosen as an underlying concept for this analysis. According to this perspective, the limitation of housing is regarded as just, as social and environmental costs for society as a whole are reduced. In contrasting these three concepts of justice, we become aware that they are mutually exclusive. Subsequently, assessing changes in land policies inevitably leads to a moral dilemma. Selecting one concept requires neglecting the others (Davy, 1997). However, a future policy framework that increases the flexibility for redevelopment and adjustment should be discussed in light of those differing perspectives – be it the promotion of a market for redevelopment or the provision of differentiated, age-group oriented housing by municipal planning. In this context, the legal requirement for municipalities to screen for infill potential seems at first glance adequate to promote redevelopment. Yet, its effectiveness is in question, as land ownership, land use patterns and planning documents lead to complexity in existing suburban structures (Phelps, 2012) that only allows for a slow and piecemeal adaptation. In this regard, further policies as well as planning strategies are needed that consider utilisation and tenure change processes (BerndgenKaiser et al., 2014). Furthermore, urban development and population show a decoupling of use and floor area. In the case study, simultaneity of stagnation and shrinkage of populati on with only modest urban development became apparent. This is due to the influence of a demographic transition towards smaller household sizes (Kabisch and Haase, 2011). New floor area is mostly used to satisfy demand for an increase in floor area per person in existing households. In a suburban context, single family houses and long occupancy rates in an aging society strengthen this trend. This development is also shown by Kroll and Haase (2010) with regard to demographic change. In contrast, the intensification of usage in highly accessible districts can be linked mainly to the housing demand from young people pursuing an education. Considered in view of effectiveness and justice this constellation reveals the necessity for further policies to mobilise and adapt suburban housing stocks (BerndgenKaiser et al., 2014) to ensure municipal development opportunities and to secure the supply of affordable housing. 4.2. Potentials of an integrative perspective Based on these results, we argue that the integrated approach (considering settlement structure, demographics, and accessibility together) enables us to better link effects of changes in land policies to the suburban case study area, and distinguish policy effects from quantitative reduction of land use change that could be the result of economic stagnation or decline. The differentiation between infill and greenfield development allows for the first time to exclude this effect and link changes in policies to spatial changes. Beyond that, the results found by considering accessibility supports us in critically assessing the effectiveness in redirection of urban growth. We found that infill development also happens at sites of low accessibility and contradicts envisaged objectives of a compact settlement structure. Table 3 reflects on these processes with regard to effectiveness and justice and gives arguments for an assessment.

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4.3. Transferability The proposed method has been developed using the example of the Karlsruhe city region in Germany, and subsequently has been applied to it. Transferability of the method is appropriate for all other regions where comparable input data is available. In Europe, the availability of standardized topographical spatial base data has improved considerably in recent years. An important contribution has been made by spatial data infrastructure (SDI) initiatives, such as the Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe (INSPIRE). This initiative ensures that the content of data (e.g. buildings, land use) is described uniformly in the data products offered by the national mapping and cadastral agencies. However, access to these spatial data infrastructure is sometimes limited to a specific group of users, excluding researchers. For this reason, data freely available under a Creative Commons license is becoming increasingly important as Supplementary data or even as a primary alternative to sources with limited access. One example is the Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) platform OpenStreetMap (OSM), which already offers data on road and rail network, land use as well as building footprints. The application of the method to cities outside of Germany or even Europe may require adaptions to the characteristics of the specific region, particularly in terms of building types and the model parameters. The automated approach used for the building classification offers the flexibility to easily change the underlying building typology by collecting new training objects for the automated process. Additionally, model parameters such as the building-type specific assumptions on building height and storey height need to be reviewed and adapted according to the respective local conditions. For the classification of the building types, new training data needs to be selected for each region. Another challenge is the strong heterogeneity of the historical topographic maps. Enhanced and adaptive cartographic pattern recognition approaches need to be applied when dealing with such spatially and temporal variations in the map design and graphical representations of the map objects (Herold, 2015). Also, using municipal population data offers a flexible way to generate homogeneous small scale spatial data in countries without centralised data infrastructure. From an integrative point of view, the proposed approach offers a starting point for further developing a comparative analysis of spatial processes. The approach supports a discussion on development of comparable small scale spatial data bases that may serve as the framework for comparing land policies. The chosen policy objectives and derived indicators are depicted to show the possibilities of applying a normative framework as proposed by Hartmann and Spit (2015) to assess spatial processes and policy effects in a suburban context. The selection of indicators presents different aspects of land thrift policies and could be complemented by further, more comprehensive sets of indicators. While considering the requirements for an adaptation for comparative analysis, the approach offers a way to contribute to an international discussion on assessing urban land thrift and containment policies (Halleux et al., 2012; Dawkins and Nelson, 2002).

5. Conclusion In this paper, we raised questions about how to assess changes in land policies. Triggered by mainly environmental concerns, German land policy has enacted changes in order to reduce land consumption caused by suburbanisation. This, in turn, raised concerns about negative impacts on adequacy of the housing supply and development opportunities for smaller municipalities. Through analysing the changes using the criteria of effectiveness and justice, we were able to describe resulting dilemmas and to

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subsequently develop an approach that delivers comparable indicators for a quantitative as well as qualitative assessment of urban containment or (in case of Germany) land thrift policies. To do so, data limitations needed to be overcome, as national sources and officially maintained statistics were not detailed enough to assess policies in a suburban context. On the basis of a city regional case study, the acquisition of a data basis and the application of indicators were successfully tested for an administratively splintered, but functionally interlinked, suburban area. Regarding the assessment, the analysis of spatial processes allows for a juxtaposition of changes in policy and space. Hence, it was shown that objective indicators can reflect effects of land policies. The analysis showed that the effectiveness of the adaptation of policies to favour infill development could be considered high, in quantitative terms. Regarding the quality of urban development, however, we showed that peripheral growth remains a challenge for urban containment policies. Regarding justice, we emphasized opposing processes of population dynamics and construction of housing, which underline the importance of further policy adaptation to provide housing at locations of higher accessibility. However, as we develop and apply indicators as a first step, further work is required to prove cause-effect relationships between land policy and spatial change. An interesting starting point for further research might be on the topic of infill development. Here, balancing an environmentally required limitation of land consumption with the social need for housing is a key challenge for urban planning. Only a combined analysis of complex legal and policy constellations and spatial potentials could give adequate answers to enhance the effectiveness of policies in order to favour a just spatial development. Altogether, by integrating the analytical concept of planning system rationales (e.g. effectiveness and justice), and spatial analysis, we aim at strengthening the capacity to analyse changes in land policies. In this article, we offer an example that contributes to the discussion on dilemmas of changes in land policies empirically, in that we connect land policies to spatial changes. Vice versa, this connection allows us to identify spatial processes that reveal dilemmas in land policy. Furthermore, the integration may improve comparative spatial analysis, as differences in national land policies can be taken into account through a structured view on normative prerequisites. From that perspective, the approach may be applied to comparative research on dynamics of land policies, in national and international contexts. Acknowledgement We are grateful to the guest-editors of this special issue and to the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments. The first author acknowledges Joachim Vogt for his support and valuable advice in developing the approach. We further thank Steve Ross for polishing the English and Ulrike Schinke for improving the design of the maps. The authors also thank the Landesamt für Geoinformation und Landentwicklung Baden-Württemberg (LGLBW), the Federal Agency for Cartography and Geodesy (Bundesamt für Kartographie und Geodäsie, BKG) and numerous municipal administrations for the provision of data. References Adam, B., Göddecke-Stellmann, J., Sturm, G., 2015. Divergenzen und Konvergenzen in Großstadtregionen: kleinräumige Analysen. BBSR-Analysen Kompakt 1, Bonn. BBSR, 2015. Laufende Stadtbeobachtung—Raumabgrenzungen: Großstadtregionen. http://www.bbsr.bund.de/BBSR/DE/Raumbeobachtung/Raumabgrenzungen/ Grossstadtregionen/Grossstadtregionen.html?nn=443048 (accessed 2.04.15.). Batty, M., 2007. Cities and Complexity. Understanding Cities with Cellular Automata, Agent-Based Models, and Fractals. MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.

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Please cite this article in press as: Jehling, M., et al., Assessing urban containment policies within a suburban context—An approach to enable a regional perspective. Land Use Policy (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.10.031