European market for distributed control systems Frost & Sullivan, USA (1 984) $1 6 0 0 European sales of distributed control systems will increase at an 18% average annual rate through 1988, as the process industries turn from older centralized digital and analogue technologies, according to this market research study. Total demand in the six countries covered by the report, the FRG, France, the UK, Italy, the Netherlands and Belgium, are expected to rise from $245M in 1982 to about $640M in 1988, with growth somewhat more concentrated in the pre-1987 years, says the report. Distributed control systems are cost competitive with conventional system hardware while they save on wiring and operator interface costs, according to the study. Among their many claimed advantages are increased flexibility, particularly for incremental plant modernization programs, simplified troubleshooting and maintenance, lowered risk of system-wide failure and the ability to carry out more complex control strategies with simpler software. The FRG accounts for 37% of the market, double the secondplace UK's 19%, owing to its strength in the three leading enduser industries: chemicals and petrochemicals, primary metals and power generation. France is third with 17% of all distributed control system sales in 1982. Little change in relative country shares is expected over the forecast period in the six countries, which together are estimated to represent about 85% of the total West European market. Country markets are also broken down by category of system. The four levels defined are fully integrated systems, partially integrated systems, discrete controllers with shared displays and
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small dedicated systems. The chemical and petrochemical industries bought about 33% of all these systems in 1982. Power generation, petroleum refining and primary metals account for another 12-13% each. The chemical and petrochemical, petroleum refining and primary metals sectors are soon to decline relative to other end users. Power generation will increase slightly, as will all the other segments analysed in the report; pulp and paper, food and beverage, cement and glass, oil and gas production and water and effluent treatment. Analysis in terms of application reveals that batch process control will increase its share of the distributed control systems market from 20% in 1982 to 28% in 1988; data acquisition systems will rise from 25% to 30% of the total in that period. The largest application, continuous process control, will lose share from 55% to 42%.
About 30 manufacturers are active in the European market. US firms supply about half the market; FRG, French and British companies together probably account for another 42-45%. Several Scandinavian suppliers are currently significant participants. The report predicts that two Japanese firms, Yokogawa and Toshiba, will become more active there in the near future. Honeywell, Siemens and Foxboro lead the market, together accounting for 40-42% of the total, according to the study, which profiles all leading suppliers. The report concludes that successful companies seem to have: • a wider market accessibility through a network of their own subsidiaries, • a coordinated international marketing structure, • leadership in selected end-user industries, • internationally located R&D facilities, thus keeping R&D near the market, • a highly visible and effective product planning structure. Developments in control technology are also treated in the report. (Frost & Sullivan Inc., "/06 Fulton Street, New York, NY"/0038, USA. Tel: 212 233 1080) []
Database services market in Europe Frost & Sullivan, USA (1984) 357 pp, $1 500 Western Europe's business community is subscribing to database services at a pace that will enlarge the market by 25% a year to a $1 800M total in 1987, claims this market forecast. The report forecasts the market to more than double 1982's $757M level by 1987, with marketing information by far the largest end-user sector. Near term growth will be extremely rapid, because of involvement with so many of the key decision-support tools for business today. Consumer use of database services are not considered.
Marketing information, the largest of 10 end-user sectors discussed, accounts for more than 33% of the market at present; its $275M in 1982 revenues represent 36% of the total. By 1987, sales will total $605M, and the segment will represent 34% of all database services sales. Financial database services, the second largest category of end use, will expand from $216M revenue in 1982 to $535M by 1987; this is a slightly larger slice of the total market, 30% compared to 29% now. Credit information is the third
computer communications
largest end use for database services, and together with financial and marketing, the three account for 75% of the total market. Credit information is a $102M segment now but will grow more slowly than the overall market, reaching $185M by 1987, when it will be only 10% of the total. Other end-user categories include news, legal, science and technology, economic and industryspecific applications. The study also analyses the market by delivery mode, reference versus service, country (concentrating on the FRG, France, the UK and Italy) and specific vendors and their market shares. Relative strengths of the market by country are not expected to change significantly during the forecast period, the report says; except that Italy will start to catch up from its present back-
ward situation. The UK accounts for almost 33% of the European total at present, with a 1982 market valued at $235M. It is forecast to grow slightly faster than the overall market, reaching $567M by 1987. The FRG, comprising almost 25% of the European total, is the second largest country market, its 1982 total $175M. It will grow slightly slower than the others, reaching $360M by 1987. The French market, expected to climb more quickly, will rise from $147M to $320M over the five years, to represent 18% of the 1987 total. Italy, the fastestgrowing of the major countries considered, is seen as quadrupling its market, from $55M to $193M. Online delivery (a terminal at the user site) is the most common delivery mode, the study finds, as
Data communications market: impact of deregulation Strategic, UK ( 1 9 8 4 ) $1 5 3 0 While deregulation will create significant new revenue opportunities for data communications equipment and services suppliers, the associated disruption will also pave the way for the subsequent elimination of many vendors. According to this report, the shift of major carriers from the concept of universal service to a competitive price-based marketing environment will trigger fundamental dislocations in the data communications market and cause major headaches for the user community. Among the negative effects will be a reduction in the quality of switched network transmission. This, in turn, will reduce the revenues which would have otherwise accrued to the independent high-speed switched network modem vendors, and will force the restructuring of the data communications services submarket into specialized transmis-
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sion and value-added network segments, as users scramble for reliable services. On the other hand, the associated need for leased services will create additional revenue opportunities for those multiplexer vendors who cater to the needs of the network services suppliers. The inevitable reduction of network reliability will also enhance the sales prospects of the test and diagnostic equipment vendors. This study has implications for transmission service suppliers, equipment vendors and users with large data communications networks. Deregulation has created an unstable marketing environment. There will be a major realignment of equipment distribution channels and a restructuring of how services are provided to the customer. The report projects that new high-volume semiconductor technology, rapid progress in fibre
39% of the dollar volume in database services is handled this way. Batch delivery (a report, listing or magnetic tape delivered physically) is almost as widespread, representing 37% of the total market volume. Printed reference material, as an output from a database, accounts for 24% of the market. Of the two classes of d,itabase, reference databases, which tell where to find the data, are the more numerous, but account for only 10% of total revenues; service databases, which contain the data itself, take up 90%. 70% of the market goes to the top 20 supplier companies, the report says. Reuters is the leader, followed by A C Nielsen and Dun & Bradstreet. (Frost & Sullivan Inc., 106 Fulton Street, New York, NY 10038, USA. Tel: 212 233 1080) [] optics, excess satellite capacity and the economics of digital transmission will combine to stimulate the introduction of a broad range of alternative methods of data transmission. However, the availability of specific services will be subject to litigious regulatory and legislative proceedings that will continually pervert the 'legal' configuration of user data communications networks. Further, the emergence of AT&T and the Bell Operating Companies as prospective competitors, along with the entry of the international record carriers into the domestic network submarkets, will merely serve to confuse this situation further. Non-Telco carriers are expected to triple their penetration of the intercity communications markets by 1988. AT&T's share will have dropped to a range of 37-39%, depending upon its penetration of local access services market sectors, producing a $2 000M swing in AT&T's 1988 revenues. (International Planning Information, Nordre Ringvej 201, 2600 Glostrup, Copenhagen, Denmark. Tel: 452 632 044, Tx: 33576) []
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