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Development of Russian labor market in the context of informatization and computerization of the economy
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Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000
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www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
Procedia Computer Science 145 (2018) 169–176
Postproceedings of the 9th Annual International Conference on Biologically Inspired Cognitive Postproceedings of the 9thBICA Annual International Conference Inspired Cognitive Architectures, 2018 (Ninth Annual MeetingonofBiologically the BICA Society) Architectures, BICA 2018 (Ninth Annual Meeting of the BICA Society)
Development of Russian labor market in the context of Development of Russian labor market in the context of informatization and computerization of the economy informatization and computerization of the economy a a
A. V. Putilov a, M. V. Bugaenko a, D. V. Timokhin a* A. V. Putilov a, M. V. Bugaenko a, D. V. Timokhin a*
National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute), National Research Kashirskoe Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering shosse 31, Moscow, 115409, Russia Physics Institute), Kashirskoe shosse 31, Moscow, 115409, Russia
Abstract Abstract The article examines questions related to the impact of computerization of the economy on the labour market in Russia are investigated. The analysis of therelated experience countries that found themselves a similar in an earlier The article examines questions to theofimpact of computerization of the in economy onsituation the labour market in period Russia was are analysed. TheThe similarities differences in the labour market are revealed the context of computerization withwas the investigated. analysisand of the experience of countries that processes found themselves in a in similar situation in an earlier period processes taking place in the marketininthe thelabour early stages the scientific and technological revolution and industrialization. analysed. The similarities andlabour differences marketofprocesses are revealed in the context of computerization with the The calculation indicators the influence computerization state of and the labour market revolution in Russia and comparison of processes takingofplace in the of labour market inofthe early stages ofon thethe scientific technological andthe industrialization. calculated valuesofwith real indicators are provided. Interpretation of carried outmarket and, and according them predictions The calculation indicators of the influence of computerization onthe theresults state ofisthe labour in Russia andtothe comparison of of the impact of computerization on the labour market inofthe term are proposed. calculated values with real indicators areRussian provided. Interpretation themedium results is carried out and, and according to them predictions of the impact of computerization on the Russian labour market in the medium term are proposed. © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. © 2018 The Authors. by Elsevier B.V. This is an open accessPublished article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the the CC scientific committee of the 9th Annual International Conference on Biologically Inspired This is an open access article under BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 9th Annual International Conference on Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 9th Annual International Conference on Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures. Cognitive Architectures. Keywords: Informatization; Economics of the IT sector; Economic effects of informatization; Forecasting. Keywords: Informatization; Economics of the IT sector; Economic effects of informatization; Forecasting.
* Corresponding author. address:author. [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] * E-mail Corresponding E-mail address: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] 1877-0509 © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access under the CC by BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) 1877-0509 © 2019 The article Authors. Published Elsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility of the committee of the(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) 9th Annual International Conference on Biologically Inspired Cognitive This is an open access article under thescientific CC BY-NC-ND license Architectures. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 9th Annual International Conference on Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures. 1877-0509 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 9th Annual International Conference on Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures. 10.1016/j.procs.2018.11.035
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1. Introduction Relevance. The processes of computerization of Russian economy, which began in the 2000s and intensified in the beginning of 2010, actively influence the state of the national labor market. The peak of the negative impact of computerization on the level of employment is projected in 2020 - 2030. Within a short period of time, it is necessary to develop a system of measures to prevent a critical increase in unemployment and ensure the drowning of specialists from the traditional economy to the digital economy. It is necessary to assess the impact of the computerization of the economy on the labor market for each of the segments of the economy and propose a system of measures that not only solve social problems in each of these segments, but also maintain a high level of demand and involvement in the economy by workers. Objective: to estimate the impact of computerization of the Russian national economy on the domestic labor market and possible impact on the labor market by the state and to offer effective solutions of regulating employment in a computerized environment based on foreign experience. According the goal and the logic of the research, the following problems were posed and solved in the article: to determine the impact of computerization on the national labor market; to identify possible variations in the impact of computerization on the labor market, taking into account the state and features of the national model of the economy, taking into account foreign experience; to analyze the impact of computerization on the national labor market in Russia, to identify the positive and negative consequences of its impact on the labor market; to estimate the applicability of the use of foreign experience for the purposes of state regulation of employment in the context of computerization of the national economy; to develop a system of proposals to optimize the regulation of employment in Russia in 2020 - 2030, taking into account the results of regulation of employment in the country in 2010 - 2017. and foreign experience of employment regulation in conditions of transformational changes in the economy. The study was carried out on the matirial of official statistics provided in open sources, such as websites of public authorities, statistical reports, surveys of the World Labor Organization, the World Bank and other international organizations. A significant attention is paid to fundamental theoretical works devoted to the subject of employment. Statistical data for analytical calculations and forecasts of authors are processed taking into account the latest trends taking place on the labor market of Russia under the influence of national state programs of employment support. 2. The statement of the problem The program of computerization and digitization of the Russian economy is complied until 2030. The country's economy faces the challenge of reformatting the labor market in such a way as to minimize the negative impact of reducing the demand for personnel in traditional segments of the economy and to provide the personnel with newly created industries. Prime Minister D.A. Medvedev and the Ministry of Labor estimates the number of persons who will lose their jobs during this period, from 30 to 40% of the national workforce [3]. The emancipation of the workforce is assumed mainly in the traditional sectors, such as trade, agriculture, heavy and light industry. At the same time, the national economy is already experiencing a shortage of personnel in innovative sectors, formed from scratch. The nature of this deficit is dual. Part of the vacancies can not be closed for 2017 - 2018 due to the lack of both a workforce with relevant competencies and a system of their training in the country. At the same time, there is an excessive supply in the country to meet the demand for a number of vacancies, the quality of which is unsatisfactory low [4]. In other words, the country faces the task of radically restructuring the entire set of labor market institutions, starting with the training system. Of particular importance is the problem of the formation of professional standards for nontraditional professions for the domestic economy and the calculation of the needs of the economy in the holders of relevant professions. The concept of modernization and digitalization of the national economy, proposed by the state, presupposes the formation of personnel for new industries within the framework of the implementation of state programs for the creation of these industries. This approach allows to connect the amount of budgetary financing to the creation of new
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personnel, the real staffing needs determined by state corporations and private business, and the activities of domestic educational organizations [5]. For traditional activities such as trade and accounting, domestic researchers propose the calculation of road maps for the formation of such personnel based on the need for «bots» [6]. The calculation of amount of bots is presented in table 1. Table 1. Calculation of the number of bots needed to meet the needs of the economy by 2030* [7] Main spheres of production Labor Workforce demand, Level of digitalization Number of bots, distribution, bln. person-hour per in production sphere Billion units % day ,% Extraction of raw materials 20 60,75 0,7 2,1 Production, incl. energy, 20 60,75 0,8 2,4 food products Recycling 5 15,19 0,8 0,6 Transport and relocation 20 60,75 0,7 2,1 Services (security, science, 30 91,13 0,2 0,9 health, safety, information, scientific services and communication) Other 5 15,19 0,5 0,38 Total 100 8,6 *the work norm of the bot 20 hours a day Calculations carried out on the basis of appropriate calculations and taking into account the existing structure of training in Russia allow to forecast a labor shortage of 24% of the needs. At the same time, the problem of losing jobs with a part of the national workforce is acute, without the possibility of changing the type of activity. Thus, to solve serious problems in the domestic labor market by 2030 and the adaptation of its structure to the requirements of the digital housekeeper, a number of measures should be implemented to modernize the mechanism of the labor market. As a starting model for such modernization, the use of foreign experience is possible. 3. Foreign experience in regulating employment in the context of computerization and digitalization of the economy The introduction of computer technologies into production processes and the associated digitalization and virtualization of the corresponding processes has an ambiguous impact on the economy. There are three differently directed trends, each of which can become both dominant and an outsider trend, depending on the economic policy pursued in the country. The first trend is the release of labor as the economy's need for living labor decreases. The predominance of this trend increases unemployment in the economy, leads to a reduction in demand in the national market and, ultimately, can cause economic degradation. The second trend is associated with higher labor productivity. The growth of labor productivity in the scale of the national economy leads to stricter competition, lower costs and prices for innovative products, and ensures the strengthening of the competitive position of the national producer in the global economy. The national labor force is in demand as a resource for the global production, which increases demand for it, leads to higher wages and an increase in the purchasing power of the employed. The third trend involves a change in the structure of the economy and the labor market. The share of employed highly skilled personnel is increasing, there is a growth of innovative sectors of the economy. Together, all three trends create conditions for the growth of the share of highly skilled labor in the market. An example of such growth for EU countries actively implementing state programs to support the computerization of the economy is provided in fig. 1.
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Fig.1 Indicators of dynamics of structure of qualification in the EU-28 labor market [1] At the same time, in developed countries, the risks associated with the possible loss of jobs due to computerization and job automation remain relevant. Fig.2 presents data on relevant risks for Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the United States of America. At the same time, for these countries, the employment problem associated with the computerization of the economy is not decisive, since the bulk of the potentially unemployed are covered by state programs of professional development and retraining. For South Korea, participation in such programs is compulsory and paid by the employer in conjunction with the specialized National Employment Fund of South Korea. Every worker in South Korea, who risks losing his seat due to computerization of his production site, has the opportunity of guaranteed employment due to participation in the relevant program. Thus, the data presented by South Korea on fig. 2, are the most objective from the point of view of the analysis of the risks of reducing employment in connection with the computerization of the economy.
Fig.2 Estimation of percentage of work places at risk of reduction The above employment policy allows these countries to keep unemployment at the level of 4-6%, even in conditions of a "strong" national currency. In Russia, the employment forecast, taking into account current trends, looks worse, as unemployment by 2030 may reach 16% [9]. The reason for this situation is the shortage of retraining programs and the absence of a number of institutions relevant to the labor market of the development of countries. Consider some of these institutions, borrowing in Russia in the context of computerization of the economy seems to be effective [21].
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In Germany, a system has been created to support a qualified national workforce. A German employer does not have the right to hire a skilled migrant worker until he receives a triple waiver from a German citizen / employment agency / trade union in hiring a German employee. This approach led to a higher level of wages in Germany and an increase in the interest of the national labor force in the highly paid innovative sectors of the IT economy, where employment in other countries is associated with high risks of unemployment due to competition from labor migrants [10]. In France, employees whose professions are at risk in connection with computerization are offered grants for retraining and opening their own businesses. Professions for which grants are awarded are determined by the Republican list and linked to the needs of the digital economy [11]. A distinctive feature of the OECD employment programs is the system of continuous training of non-traditional professions that allows to meet the IT staff's needs at any time in the life cycle of technology and to avoid the negative consequences associated with an overabundance in the market of carriers of obsolete professions. In general, the growth in the share of non-traditional professions in the world is 0.23% of the workforce, while in Russia this figure is less than 0.1% [12]. 3
Forecasts for the labor market in Russia for 2020 - 2030
In accordance with the world practice, in order to ensure sustainable growth of Russia's IT economy under conditions of import substitution, the necessary capacity of the national market should be at least $ 1 trillion [13]. This calculation was made based on the exchange rate of one dollar in the amount of 60 rubles. Reducing the market capacity by 1% leads to a decrease in the positive growth of the IT market by 1.15%. We will calculate what are the possible consequences of reducing unemployment in Russia for the introduction of IT technologies in production processes. The effect of unemployment on the performance of the national economy is estimated by the Oaken law presented in formula 1. Y−Y∗ = −B(U − Ue ) (1) Y∗
Y - the actual level of GDP, which under the conditions of import substitution is calculated as the capacity of the national market; Y * - actual GDP, that is GDP at full employment; U is the amount of unemployment; Ue - an indicator of the natural level of unemployment, that can be calculated at full employment rate. For Russia, according to World Bank estimates, this indicator is roughly equal to the current value of unemployment [14]. According to Oaken's formula, we will calculate the dynamics of changes in the Russian labor market and market capacity indicators, provided that the refinancing of the national IT economy will be carried out at a rate of 0.8 from the growth in the previous period. 0,2 income will be used to pay previous loans from the loan cost accounting of 20%. The results of the calculations are shown in Table 2. Table 2. Forecast of the interaction of the labor market and the IT economy of Russia under conditions of import substitution, % of total national production The released labor Decrease in the domestic market The economy growth through the digitization of production
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
5,5
1,25
2,5
3,75
5
6,25
7,5
8,75
10
11,25
12,5
13,75
2,9
3,4
3,9
4,4
4,9
5,4
5,9
6,4
6,9
7,4
7,9
Calculated by the authors on the base of [15], [16], [17], [18]
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As the initial data on the growth dynamics of the IT economy of Russia and the capacity of the national market, we use the indicators proposed by the World Bank in Russia up to 2025. According to this data, we can build a forecast of the impact of the unemployment rate on the growth of the IT economy, provided that bots replace 0.5% of the workforce per year from 2020 [15]. As the initial data on the growth dynamics of the IT economy of Russia and the capacity of the national market, we use the indicators proposed by the World Bank in Russia up to 2025. We will build a forecast of the impact of the unemployment rate on the growth of the IT economy, provided that bots replace 0.5% of the workforce per year from 2020 [15].
20
Replacement of labor by bots,% of RF economy
15 10 5 0 -5
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Рост производста за счет компьютеризации и повышения производительности трудпа, % Decline in production due to reduced consumption,%
-10 -15 Fig.3 Forecast of Russian labor market, bot labor substitution and national production Calculated by the authors on the base of [15], [16], [17], [18] These calculations allow us to assert that the innovative growth of the Russian economy under conditions of import substitution only at the expense of computerization of production and increase in labor productivity is possible in the period up to 2024-2026, taking into account the beginning of growth in 2020. To ensure stable innovative growth of the economy by 2030 it is necessary to supplement toolkit of state support of the process of computerization with other instruments in the sphere of labor market regulation. 4. Directions for ensuring a balanced development of the labor market of the russian federation until 2030 in the context of computerization of the economy Taking into account the above analysis, the following actions on the labor market are advisable: 1. Involvement of existing employees of enterprises, production processes in which are subject to computerization, as co-investors in the early stages of computerization. Such a decision will support the national market and will create funds for the population that can later be used to increase [21]; 2. Reformatting the domestic education system, taking into account the capabilities of the digital economy. An example of such reformatting is the introduction of innovations in the educational process, proposed by the authors of this article. The essence of the data of the proposed model of the organization of the educational process is presented on fig. 4
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The innovation process 1 The structure of the competence model 1 Program 1 The structure of the competence model ... ...
Educational progrosess
The following groups of prosesses
2 The information space, providing interaction of private participants of economic cross, the state, the education system and other interested parties through the Net
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3 Employer requirements 1 Profession 1 Employer requirements ...
...
The structure of the competence model n
Employer requirements n
Program n
Profession n
FIG. 4. The model of a competence-based model of the educational program as a system, which is responsible for effective interaction of the educational process with the other areas of “economic cross.” [19].
Granting of money to other consumers of state loans with the condition of purchasing a part of the goods on the domestic market from producers involved in the process of digitalization of production processes and having the opportunity to retrain their own employees. 5. Conclusion Thus, without effective support of innovative development of the labor market, it is possible to receive a positive effect of the digitalization of the national economy no more than before 2024 - 2026. In order to ensure further innovative growth of the domestic IT economy and related industries, it is necessary to take measures to support domestic demand. The costs of supporting domestic demand should be linked to the mass company in 2019-2024 to change the structure of professions in the domestic labor market. References [1] Dachs, B. (2018) “The impact of new technologies on the labour market and the social economy.” in Science and Technology Options Assessment, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2018/614539/EPRS_STU%282018%29614539_EN.pdf, doi: 10.2861/68448. [2] “Impact of technology on labour market outcomes” (2017) World Trade (c), at URL: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/wtr173_e.pdf [3] Sizova, I, Khuciainov, T. (2017) “Trud i zanyatost v cifrovoj ehkonomike: problemy rossijskogo rynka truda” (4), inVestnik Sankt Peterburgskogo universiteta (4): 376 – 396, Doi: 10.21638/11701/spbu12.2017.401 [4] Kublatov, A., Borshcheva, A., Santalova, M. (2018) “Zanyatost i zarabotnaya plata naseleniya kak pokazateli socialnogo kachestva zhizni” in Nauchnyj zhurnal NIU ITMO (1); 33-40, DOI: 10.17586/2310-1172-2018-11-1-33-40 [5] Strelkova, I (2018) “Cifrovaya ehkonomika vozmozhnosti i ugrozy dlya razvitiya mirovogo hozyajstva” in Economy. Taxes. Right (2): 1826, doi: 10.26794/1999-849X‑2018-11-2-18-26 [6] Shatilo, U., Kopkova, E. (2017) “Zanyatost i bezrabotica v usloviyah cifrovoj ehkonomiki” in Theory. Practice. Innovation (1): URL: http://www.tpinauka.ru/2017/10/Shatilo.pdf, [7] Nikitin V. (2017) “Klyuchevye tekhnologii budushchego puteshestvie v xxv vek ehkonomicheskie Strategii” in Science. Innovation. Foresight. (1): 100 – 113 [8] Kabret, F. (2014) “Unemployment and Labor Market in Urban Ethiopia: Trends and Current Conditions” in Sociology and Anthropology (2(6)): 207 – 2018, Doi: 10.13189/ sa.2014.020601 [9] Mihalkina, E. (2016) “Molodezhnyj rynok truda - sistemnyj impuls innovacionnogo razvitiya ehkonomiki” in Terra Economicus (3): 131144, Doi: 10.18522/2073-6606-2016-14-3-131-144 [10] Konigs, S, Carcillo S. (2018) “How does Germany compare?” in Employment outlook (1): Doi: 10.1787/empl_outlook-2018-en [11] Sam, S. (2016) “The 2016 – 2021 worldwide self – pacet eLearning market” in Ambient insight (6): 45 – 48 [12] Baller, S, Dutta, S., Lanvin, B. The global information technology report, 2016 ISBN: 978-1-944835-03-3
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[13] Janta B., Ratzamannn N. (2015) “Employment and the changing labour market: global social trends to 2030” at URL: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR900/RR920z5/RAND_RR920z5.pdf [14] Demmou, L. Wörgötter, A. (2015) “Boosting productivity in Russia. ” in OECD Economics Department Working Papers (1189): http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5js4w26114r2-en [15] .Doing Business 2017: Equal Opportunity for All (2018), World Bank, DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0948-4 [16] State Programme «Digital economy of Russia» at URL: http://static.government.ru/media/files/9gFM4FHj4PsB79I5v7yLVuPgu4bvR7M0.pdf [17] Offisial site of Mineconomrazvitia of Russia, URL: http://economy.gov.ru/minec/main [18] Offisial site of Federal state statistic service of Russia, URL: http://www.gks.ru/ [19] Putilov, A.V., Timokhin, D.V., Bugaenko, M.V. (2017) “Revisiting the Modernization of the Educational Process IT component in Russia on the Basis of the Model of "Economic Cross" in AIP Conference Proceedings (1797) doi.org/10.1063/1.4972434 [20] Feniser, C., Lungu, F., Bilbao, J. (2017) “The connection between absorptive capacity and open innovation in managerial perspective” in MATEC Conferences (121), DOI: 10.1051/matecconf/20171210 [21] Wai, C.P.M. (2017) “Innovation and Social Impact in Higher Education: Some Lessons from Tohoku University and the Open University of Hong Kong. ” in Open Journal of Social Sciences, (5), 139-153. https://doi.org/10.4236/jss.2017.59011
ScienceDirect ScienceDirect
Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000
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Procedia Computer Science 145 (2018) 169–176
Postproceedings of the 9th Annual International Conference on Biologically Inspired Cognitive Postproceedings of the 9thBICA Annual International Conference Inspired Cognitive Architectures, 2018 (Ninth Annual MeetingonofBiologically the BICA Society) Architectures, BICA 2018 (Ninth Annual Meeting of the BICA Society)
Development of Russian labor market in the context of Development of Russian labor market in the context of informatization and computerization of the economy informatization and computerization of the economy a a
A. V. Putilov a, M. V. Bugaenko a, D. V. Timokhin a* A. V. Putilov a, M. V. Bugaenko a, D. V. Timokhin a*
National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute), National Research Kashirskoe Nuclear University MEPhI (Moscow Engineering shosse 31, Moscow, 115409, Russia Physics Institute), Kashirskoe shosse 31, Moscow, 115409, Russia
Abstract Abstract The article examines questions related to the impact of computerization of the economy on the labour market in Russia are investigated. The analysis of therelated experience countries that found themselves a similar in an earlier The article examines questions to theofimpact of computerization of the in economy onsituation the labour market in period Russia was are analysed. TheThe similarities differences in the labour market are revealed the context of computerization withwas the investigated. analysisand of the experience of countries that processes found themselves in a in similar situation in an earlier period processes taking place in the marketininthe thelabour early stages the scientific and technological revolution and industrialization. analysed. The similarities andlabour differences marketofprocesses are revealed in the context of computerization with the The calculation indicators the influence computerization state of and the labour market revolution in Russia and comparison of processes takingofplace in the of labour market inofthe early stages ofon thethe scientific technological andthe industrialization. calculated valuesofwith real indicators are provided. Interpretation of carried outmarket and, and according them predictions The calculation indicators of the influence of computerization onthe theresults state ofisthe labour in Russia andtothe comparison of of the impact of computerization on the labour market inofthe term are proposed. calculated values with real indicators areRussian provided. Interpretation themedium results is carried out and, and according to them predictions of the impact of computerization on the Russian labour market in the medium term are proposed. © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. © 2018 The Authors. by Elsevier B.V. This is an open accessPublished article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the the CC scientific committee of the 9th Annual International Conference on Biologically Inspired This is an open access article under BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 9th Annual International Conference on Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 9th Annual International Conference on Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures. Cognitive Architectures. Keywords: Informatization; Economics of the IT sector; Economic effects of informatization; Forecasting. Keywords: Informatization; Economics of the IT sector; Economic effects of informatization; Forecasting.
* Corresponding author. address:author. [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] * E-mail Corresponding E-mail address: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] 1877-0509 © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access under the CC by BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) 1877-0509 © 2019 The article Authors. Published Elsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility of the committee of the(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) 9th Annual International Conference on Biologically Inspired Cognitive This is an open access article under thescientific CC BY-NC-ND license Architectures. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 9th Annual International Conference on Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures. 1877-0509 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 9th Annual International Conference on Biologically Inspired Cognitive Architectures. 10.1016/j.procs.2018.11.035
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1. Introduction Relevance. The processes of computerization of Russian economy, which began in the 2000s and intensified in the beginning of 2010, actively influence the state of the national labor market. The peak of the negative impact of computerization on the level of employment is projected in 2020 - 2030. Within a short period of time, it is necessary to develop a system of measures to prevent a critical increase in unemployment and ensure the drowning of specialists from the traditional economy to the digital economy. It is necessary to assess the impact of the computerization of the economy on the labor market for each of the segments of the economy and propose a system of measures that not only solve social problems in each of these segments, but also maintain a high level of demand and involvement in the economy by workers. Objective: to estimate the impact of computerization of the Russian national economy on the domestic labor market and possible impact on the labor market by the state and to offer effective solutions of regulating employment in a computerized environment based on foreign experience. According the goal and the logic of the research, the following problems were posed and solved in the article: to determine the impact of computerization on the national labor market; to identify possible variations in the impact of computerization on the labor market, taking into account the state and features of the national model of the economy, taking into account foreign experience; to analyze the impact of computerization on the national labor market in Russia, to identify the positive and negative consequences of its impact on the labor market; to estimate the applicability of the use of foreign experience for the purposes of state regulation of employment in the context of computerization of the national economy; to develop a system of proposals to optimize the regulation of employment in Russia in 2020 - 2030, taking into account the results of regulation of employment in the country in 2010 - 2017. and foreign experience of employment regulation in conditions of transformational changes in the economy. The study was carried out on the matirial of official statistics provided in open sources, such as websites of public authorities, statistical reports, surveys of the World Labor Organization, the World Bank and other international organizations. A significant attention is paid to fundamental theoretical works devoted to the subject of employment. Statistical data for analytical calculations and forecasts of authors are processed taking into account the latest trends taking place on the labor market of Russia under the influence of national state programs of employment support. 2. The statement of the problem The program of computerization and digitization of the Russian economy is complied until 2030. The country's economy faces the challenge of reformatting the labor market in such a way as to minimize the negative impact of reducing the demand for personnel in traditional segments of the economy and to provide the personnel with newly created industries. Prime Minister D.A. Medvedev and the Ministry of Labor estimates the number of persons who will lose their jobs during this period, from 30 to 40% of the national workforce [3]. The emancipation of the workforce is assumed mainly in the traditional sectors, such as trade, agriculture, heavy and light industry. At the same time, the national economy is already experiencing a shortage of personnel in innovative sectors, formed from scratch. The nature of this deficit is dual. Part of the vacancies can not be closed for 2017 - 2018 due to the lack of both a workforce with relevant competencies and a system of their training in the country. At the same time, there is an excessive supply in the country to meet the demand for a number of vacancies, the quality of which is unsatisfactory low [4]. In other words, the country faces the task of radically restructuring the entire set of labor market institutions, starting with the training system. Of particular importance is the problem of the formation of professional standards for nontraditional professions for the domestic economy and the calculation of the needs of the economy in the holders of relevant professions. The concept of modernization and digitalization of the national economy, proposed by the state, presupposes the formation of personnel for new industries within the framework of the implementation of state programs for the creation of these industries. This approach allows to connect the amount of budgetary financing to the creation of new
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personnel, the real staffing needs determined by state corporations and private business, and the activities of domestic educational organizations [5]. For traditional activities such as trade and accounting, domestic researchers propose the calculation of road maps for the formation of such personnel based on the need for «bots» [6]. The calculation of amount of bots is presented in table 1. Table 1. Calculation of the number of bots needed to meet the needs of the economy by 2030* [7] Main spheres of production Labor Workforce demand, Level of digitalization Number of bots, distribution, bln. person-hour per in production sphere Billion units % day ,% Extraction of raw materials 20 60,75 0,7 2,1 Production, incl. energy, 20 60,75 0,8 2,4 food products Recycling 5 15,19 0,8 0,6 Transport and relocation 20 60,75 0,7 2,1 Services (security, science, 30 91,13 0,2 0,9 health, safety, information, scientific services and communication) Other 5 15,19 0,5 0,38 Total 100 8,6 *the work norm of the bot 20 hours a day Calculations carried out on the basis of appropriate calculations and taking into account the existing structure of training in Russia allow to forecast a labor shortage of 24% of the needs. At the same time, the problem of losing jobs with a part of the national workforce is acute, without the possibility of changing the type of activity. Thus, to solve serious problems in the domestic labor market by 2030 and the adaptation of its structure to the requirements of the digital housekeeper, a number of measures should be implemented to modernize the mechanism of the labor market. As a starting model for such modernization, the use of foreign experience is possible. 3. Foreign experience in regulating employment in the context of computerization and digitalization of the economy The introduction of computer technologies into production processes and the associated digitalization and virtualization of the corresponding processes has an ambiguous impact on the economy. There are three differently directed trends, each of which can become both dominant and an outsider trend, depending on the economic policy pursued in the country. The first trend is the release of labor as the economy's need for living labor decreases. The predominance of this trend increases unemployment in the economy, leads to a reduction in demand in the national market and, ultimately, can cause economic degradation. The second trend is associated with higher labor productivity. The growth of labor productivity in the scale of the national economy leads to stricter competition, lower costs and prices for innovative products, and ensures the strengthening of the competitive position of the national producer in the global economy. The national labor force is in demand as a resource for the global production, which increases demand for it, leads to higher wages and an increase in the purchasing power of the employed. The third trend involves a change in the structure of the economy and the labor market. The share of employed highly skilled personnel is increasing, there is a growth of innovative sectors of the economy. Together, all three trends create conditions for the growth of the share of highly skilled labor in the market. An example of such growth for EU countries actively implementing state programs to support the computerization of the economy is provided in fig. 1.
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Fig.1 Indicators of dynamics of structure of qualification in the EU-28 labor market [1] At the same time, in developed countries, the risks associated with the possible loss of jobs due to computerization and job automation remain relevant. Fig.2 presents data on relevant risks for Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the United States of America. At the same time, for these countries, the employment problem associated with the computerization of the economy is not decisive, since the bulk of the potentially unemployed are covered by state programs of professional development and retraining. For South Korea, participation in such programs is compulsory and paid by the employer in conjunction with the specialized National Employment Fund of South Korea. Every worker in South Korea, who risks losing his seat due to computerization of his production site, has the opportunity of guaranteed employment due to participation in the relevant program. Thus, the data presented by South Korea on fig. 2, are the most objective from the point of view of the analysis of the risks of reducing employment in connection with the computerization of the economy.
Fig.2 Estimation of percentage of work places at risk of reduction The above employment policy allows these countries to keep unemployment at the level of 4-6%, even in conditions of a "strong" national currency. In Russia, the employment forecast, taking into account current trends, looks worse, as unemployment by 2030 may reach 16% [9]. The reason for this situation is the shortage of retraining programs and the absence of a number of institutions relevant to the labor market of the development of countries. Consider some of these institutions, borrowing in Russia in the context of computerization of the economy seems to be effective [21].
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In Germany, a system has been created to support a qualified national workforce. A German employer does not have the right to hire a skilled migrant worker until he receives a triple waiver from a German citizen / employment agency / trade union in hiring a German employee. This approach led to a higher level of wages in Germany and an increase in the interest of the national labor force in the highly paid innovative sectors of the IT economy, where employment in other countries is associated with high risks of unemployment due to competition from labor migrants [10]. In France, employees whose professions are at risk in connection with computerization are offered grants for retraining and opening their own businesses. Professions for which grants are awarded are determined by the Republican list and linked to the needs of the digital economy [11]. A distinctive feature of the OECD employment programs is the system of continuous training of non-traditional professions that allows to meet the IT staff's needs at any time in the life cycle of technology and to avoid the negative consequences associated with an overabundance in the market of carriers of obsolete professions. In general, the growth in the share of non-traditional professions in the world is 0.23% of the workforce, while in Russia this figure is less than 0.1% [12]. 3
Forecasts for the labor market in Russia for 2020 - 2030
In accordance with the world practice, in order to ensure sustainable growth of Russia's IT economy under conditions of import substitution, the necessary capacity of the national market should be at least $ 1 trillion [13]. This calculation was made based on the exchange rate of one dollar in the amount of 60 rubles. Reducing the market capacity by 1% leads to a decrease in the positive growth of the IT market by 1.15%. We will calculate what are the possible consequences of reducing unemployment in Russia for the introduction of IT technologies in production processes. The effect of unemployment on the performance of the national economy is estimated by the Oaken law presented in formula 1. Y−Y∗ = −B(U − Ue ) (1) Y∗
Y - the actual level of GDP, which under the conditions of import substitution is calculated as the capacity of the national market; Y * - actual GDP, that is GDP at full employment; U is the amount of unemployment; Ue - an indicator of the natural level of unemployment, that can be calculated at full employment rate. For Russia, according to World Bank estimates, this indicator is roughly equal to the current value of unemployment [14]. According to Oaken's formula, we will calculate the dynamics of changes in the Russian labor market and market capacity indicators, provided that the refinancing of the national IT economy will be carried out at a rate of 0.8 from the growth in the previous period. 0,2 income will be used to pay previous loans from the loan cost accounting of 20%. The results of the calculations are shown in Table 2. Table 2. Forecast of the interaction of the labor market and the IT economy of Russia under conditions of import substitution, % of total national production The released labor Decrease in the domestic market The economy growth through the digitization of production
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
5,5
1,25
2,5
3,75
5
6,25
7,5
8,75
10
11,25
12,5
13,75
2,9
3,4
3,9
4,4
4,9
5,4
5,9
6,4
6,9
7,4
7,9
Calculated by the authors on the base of [15], [16], [17], [18]
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As the initial data on the growth dynamics of the IT economy of Russia and the capacity of the national market, we use the indicators proposed by the World Bank in Russia up to 2025. According to this data, we can build a forecast of the impact of the unemployment rate on the growth of the IT economy, provided that bots replace 0.5% of the workforce per year from 2020 [15]. As the initial data on the growth dynamics of the IT economy of Russia and the capacity of the national market, we use the indicators proposed by the World Bank in Russia up to 2025. We will build a forecast of the impact of the unemployment rate on the growth of the IT economy, provided that bots replace 0.5% of the workforce per year from 2020 [15].
20
Replacement of labor by bots,% of RF economy
15 10 5 0 -5
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Рост производста за счет компьютеризации и повышения производительности трудпа, % Decline in production due to reduced consumption,%
-10 -15 Fig.3 Forecast of Russian labor market, bot labor substitution and national production Calculated by the authors on the base of [15], [16], [17], [18] These calculations allow us to assert that the innovative growth of the Russian economy under conditions of import substitution only at the expense of computerization of production and increase in labor productivity is possible in the period up to 2024-2026, taking into account the beginning of growth in 2020. To ensure stable innovative growth of the economy by 2030 it is necessary to supplement toolkit of state support of the process of computerization with other instruments in the sphere of labor market regulation. 4. Directions for ensuring a balanced development of the labor market of the russian federation until 2030 in the context of computerization of the economy Taking into account the above analysis, the following actions on the labor market are advisable: 1. Involvement of existing employees of enterprises, production processes in which are subject to computerization, as co-investors in the early stages of computerization. Such a decision will support the national market and will create funds for the population that can later be used to increase [21]; 2. Reformatting the domestic education system, taking into account the capabilities of the digital economy. An example of such reformatting is the introduction of innovations in the educational process, proposed by the authors of this article. The essence of the data of the proposed model of the organization of the educational process is presented on fig. 4
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The innovation process 1 The structure of the competence model 1 Program 1 The structure of the competence model ... ...
Educational progrosess
The following groups of prosesses
2 The information space, providing interaction of private participants of economic cross, the state, the education system and other interested parties through the Net
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3 Employer requirements 1 Profession 1 Employer requirements ...
...
The structure of the competence model n
Employer requirements n
Program n
Profession n
FIG. 4. The model of a competence-based model of the educational program as a system, which is responsible for effective interaction of the educational process with the other areas of “economic cross.” [19].
Granting of money to other consumers of state loans with the condition of purchasing a part of the goods on the domestic market from producers involved in the process of digitalization of production processes and having the opportunity to retrain their own employees. 5. Conclusion Thus, without effective support of innovative development of the labor market, it is possible to receive a positive effect of the digitalization of the national economy no more than before 2024 - 2026. In order to ensure further innovative growth of the domestic IT economy and related industries, it is necessary to take measures to support domestic demand. The costs of supporting domestic demand should be linked to the mass company in 2019-2024 to change the structure of professions in the domestic labor market. References [1] Dachs, B. (2018) “The impact of new technologies on the labour market and the social economy.” in Science and Technology Options Assessment, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2018/614539/EPRS_STU%282018%29614539_EN.pdf, doi: 10.2861/68448. [2] “Impact of technology on labour market outcomes” (2017) World Trade (c), at URL: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/wtr173_e.pdf [3] Sizova, I, Khuciainov, T. (2017) “Trud i zanyatost v cifrovoj ehkonomike: problemy rossijskogo rynka truda” (4), inVestnik Sankt Peterburgskogo universiteta (4): 376 – 396, Doi: 10.21638/11701/spbu12.2017.401 [4] Kublatov, A., Borshcheva, A., Santalova, M. (2018) “Zanyatost i zarabotnaya plata naseleniya kak pokazateli socialnogo kachestva zhizni” in Nauchnyj zhurnal NIU ITMO (1); 33-40, DOI: 10.17586/2310-1172-2018-11-1-33-40 [5] Strelkova, I (2018) “Cifrovaya ehkonomika vozmozhnosti i ugrozy dlya razvitiya mirovogo hozyajstva” in Economy. Taxes. Right (2): 1826, doi: 10.26794/1999-849X‑2018-11-2-18-26 [6] Shatilo, U., Kopkova, E. (2017) “Zanyatost i bezrabotica v usloviyah cifrovoj ehkonomiki” in Theory. Practice. Innovation (1): URL: http://www.tpinauka.ru/2017/10/Shatilo.pdf, [7] Nikitin V. (2017) “Klyuchevye tekhnologii budushchego puteshestvie v xxv vek ehkonomicheskie Strategii” in Science. Innovation. Foresight. (1): 100 – 113 [8] Kabret, F. (2014) “Unemployment and Labor Market in Urban Ethiopia: Trends and Current Conditions” in Sociology and Anthropology (2(6)): 207 – 2018, Doi: 10.13189/ sa.2014.020601 [9] Mihalkina, E. (2016) “Molodezhnyj rynok truda - sistemnyj impuls innovacionnogo razvitiya ehkonomiki” in Terra Economicus (3): 131144, Doi: 10.18522/2073-6606-2016-14-3-131-144 [10] Konigs, S, Carcillo S. (2018) “How does Germany compare?” in Employment outlook (1): Doi: 10.1787/empl_outlook-2018-en [11] Sam, S. (2016) “The 2016 – 2021 worldwide self – pacet eLearning market” in Ambient insight (6): 45 – 48 [12] Baller, S, Dutta, S., Lanvin, B. The global information technology report, 2016 ISBN: 978-1-944835-03-3
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[13] Janta B., Ratzamannn N. (2015) “Employment and the changing labour market: global social trends to 2030” at URL: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR900/RR920z5/RAND_RR920z5.pdf [14] Demmou, L. Wörgötter, A. (2015) “Boosting productivity in Russia. ” in OECD Economics Department Working Papers (1189): http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5js4w26114r2-en [15] .Doing Business 2017: Equal Opportunity for All (2018), World Bank, DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0948-4 [16] State Programme «Digital economy of Russia» at URL: http://static.government.ru/media/files/9gFM4FHj4PsB79I5v7yLVuPgu4bvR7M0.pdf [17] Offisial site of Mineconomrazvitia of Russia, URL: http://economy.gov.ru/minec/main [18] Offisial site of Federal state statistic service of Russia, URL: http://www.gks.ru/ [19] Putilov, A.V., Timokhin, D.V., Bugaenko, M.V. (2017) “Revisiting the Modernization of the Educational Process IT component in Russia on the Basis of the Model of "Economic Cross" in AIP Conference Proceedings (1797) doi.org/10.1063/1.4972434 [20] Feniser, C., Lungu, F., Bilbao, J. (2017) “The connection between absorptive capacity and open innovation in managerial perspective” in MATEC Conferences (121), DOI: 10.1051/matecconf/20171210 [21] Wai, C.P.M. (2017) “Innovation and Social Impact in Higher Education: Some Lessons from Tohoku University and the Open University of Hong Kong. ” in Open Journal of Social Sciences, (5), 139-153. https://doi.org/10.4236/jss.2017.59011