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Employment patterns of Hispanic high school graduates without college experience
The Social Science Journal 39 (2002) 301–307
Employment patterns of Hispanic high school graduates without college experience夽 Philip T. Ganderton a , Richard Santos a,∗ , Patricia Seitz b a
Department of Economics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque NM 87131, USA b Albuquerque Technical–Vocational Institute, Albuquerque NM 87106, USA
Abstract This study uses longitudinal data from the High School and Beyond Surveys (1980–1986) to construct employment patterns over a 6-year-period for graduates who did not attend college. Hispanic graduates are highlighted because less is known about their employment status upon finishing high school. Most of the high school graduates worked continuously following graduation and periods of not being in the labor force were more common than unemployment periods. Yet, among Hispanics, nearly half of the women and two-fifths of the men experienced at least one period of unemployment during the period under study. Interpretation of the various combinations of labor force activity presents a formidable challenge to researchers; the findings nevertheless provide a better portrayal of the dynamic school-to-work transition among youth. © 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction What happens to high school graduates who do not move into higher education? The new economic reality tells us that the prospects for “good jobs” for those without post-secondary experience has eroded significantly in the last two decades (e.g., Acs & Danzinger, 1993; Morales, 2000). Moreover, our understanding of the post-high school activities of Hispanic graduates is particularly sketchy (Tienda, 1995). Most research efforts have been directed to the study of white and African American youth. We seek to trace the employment patterns of high school graduates who did not attend a post-secondary educational institution; the time frame for the inquiry is the first 6 years following graduation. We highlight Hispanic high school graduates without post-secondary 夽
Authors are listed in alphabetical order, with commensurate contributions by each author to the article. Corresponding author. Tel.: +1-505-277-2107. E-mail address: [email protected] (R. Santos).
∗
0362-3319/02/$ – see front matter © 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. PII: S 0 3 6 2 - 3 3 1 9 ( 0 2 ) 0 0 1 7 1 - 4
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P.T. Ganderton et al. / The Social Science Journal 39 (2002) 301–307
education because most research on Hispanic youth concentrates either on the merits of high school completion relative to non-completion or advantages of a college education.
2. Data and methods Data for the study are drawn from the High School and Beyond (HSB) Survey; the National Center for Education Statistics initiated the survey to obtain longitudinal information on the educational experiences of students.1 We restricted the analysis to the high school senior cohort, i.e., those who graduated in 1980, who were interviewed in the 1980 base year and in each of the follow-up surveys in 1982, 1984 and 1986. The resulting sample of 10,158 individuals represents about 85% of the original group of seniors (n = 11,995). Six years after high school graduation, one-quarter of all seniors had not attended a postsecondary institution, or had attended only one semester.2 To construct employment patterns, we created indicators of “activity states” for the 6 years following high school graduation. The activity states make use of information on labor market status provided by the survey. Schooling data was used to confirm lack of involvement in higher education. Missing data on employment activity was substantial for employment “stop and start” dates and reduced the original sample size of high school graduates to 6,672; concentrating only on high school graduates with no college experience leaves us with a sample size of 1,805. The relevant employment activity states for the present analysis are: (1) working full time, or 35 or more hours per week; (2) working part time;3 (3) unemployed and looking for work; and (4) out of the labor force (OLF). Activity states for the HSB respondents are determined each February for the years 1981–1986. We selected a single month to simplify the pattern analysis; February was used because of its relationship to college enrollment status and allows direct comparison with a variable coded in the HSB sample as a validity check. Hence, the respondents’ activity status for the month of February represents their employment status for the full year, recognizing that during the course of a year respondents may experience multiple activities. As an example, an employment experience pattern may look like.
3. Employment patterns Approximately three-quarters of the sample respondents experienced a “unique” employment pattern, distinct from any other respondent. Women are more apt to exhibit unique patterns than men; about 45% of Hispanic women had unique patterns versus 30% of Hispanic men. Even with only four states in each of the 6 years, there are 4,096 distinct employment experience patterns possible. To render the analysis more manageable, we grouped patterns into the following summary categories shown in Panel A of Table 1: continuous work patterns—such as working full time or part time each period, discontinuous work patterns—with at least one period unemployed or OLF, and never employed. As one would expect from high school graduates who did not attend college, employment is the major activity. Panel A shows that almost every graduate worked either continuously or discontinuously during the 6 years after graduation. Very few high school graduates did not
P.T. Ganderton et al. / The Social Science Journal 39 (2002) 301–307
303
Table 1 Post-high school employment patterns of graduates with no post-secondary education Hispanic Women
Black Men
Panel A: Summary of patterns 1981–1986 (entries are percentages) Continuous employment 50.5 64.3 Discontinuous employment 46.4 35.7 No employment 3.1 –
Women
White Men
Women
Men
a
44.7 50.6 4.7
60.9 38.7 0.4
54.2 43.9 1.8
71.7 28.1 0.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Panel B: Detailed breakdown of continuous employment patterns Full time only 58.7 61.1 Part time only 1.0 1.6
57.9 6.6
56.3 5.3
58.7 4.9
65.9 2.4
Total
100.0
Transitional patternsb Subtotal 1 year part time ≥2 years part time
14.1 4.0 10.1
9.5 4.8 4.8
13.2 1.3 11.8
15.2 4.0 11.3
14.0 5.3 8.7
11.7 3.7 8.0
Non-directional patternsc Subtotal 1 year part time ≥2 years continuous part time
26.2 13.1 10.1
27.8 11.9 12.7
22.4 5.3 15.8
23.1 9.3 11.2
22.4 9.5 6.8
20.0 6.4 9.1
3.0
3.2
1.3
2.6
6.1
4.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
24.7 12.9 7.1 4.7
16.7 7.3 8.3 1.0
14.0 7.0 6.5 0.5
14.3 8.1 6.1 –
Other patterns Total
Panel C: Detailed breakdown of discontinuous employment patterns Transitional patternsd Subtotal 18.7 22.9 U into continuous employment 13.2 10.0 OLF into continuous employment 3.3 12.9 U & OLF 2.2 – Non-directional patternse Subtotal
81.3
77.1
75.3
83.3
86.0
85.7
Unemployment only Subtotal 1 year only ≥2 years
22.0 15.4 6.6
25.7 17.1 8.6
25.9 11.8 14.1
35.4 22.9 12.5
15.9 12.1 3.7
40.8 33.3 7.5
OLF only Subtotal 1 year only ≥2 years
45.1 15.4 29.7
42.9 27.1 15.7
38.8 11.8 27.1
35.4 16.7 21.9
15.9 22.9 32.2
40.8 26.5 12.9
Unemployment & OLF Subtotal
14.3
8.6
10.6
9.4
15.0
5.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Panel D: Summary of unemployment and OLF activities (Panel C data) 1 year unemployment 38.5 27.1 28.2 ≥2 years unemployment 13.2 17.1 25.9
34.4 18.8
29.4 8.9
43.5 10.9
Total
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P.T. Ganderton et al. / The Social Science Journal 39 (2002) 301–307
Table 1 (Continued ) Hispanic Women
Black Men
Women
White Men
Women
Men
Total unemployment
51.6
44.3
54.1
53.1
38.3
54.4
1 year OLF ≥2 years OLF
24.2 38.5
42.9 21.4
25.9 35.3
27.1 30.2
34.1 43.0
34.7 16.3
62.6
64.3
61.2
57.3
77.1
51.0
Total OLF Sample size in each group
196
196
170
248
487
523
a
Continuous employment is defined as always working, part time or full time, from 1981 to 1986. Discontinuous employment refers to at least one period of unemployment (U) or one period OLF. b Transitional patterns of continuous employment are characterized by an initial period of part-time work followed by continuous full-time work. c Non-directional patterns of continuous employment are defined by periods of part-time and full-time work with no implied sequence (e.g., 2 years full time followed by 1 year part time then 3 years full time). d Transitional patterns of discontinuous employment are characterized by an initial period of unemployment or OLF followed by continuous work, part time or full time. e Non-directional patterns of discontinuous employment are defined as combinations of employment, unemployment, and OLF with no implied sequence.
work at all during the 6 years ranging from 5% among black women to less than 1% for men, irrespective of race. Men were more likely to exhibit continuous employment than women. Comparing racial groups, whites had the highest employment participation, Hispanics had lower participation rates and blacks showed the lowest participation rates. Panel B of Table 1 provides more detailed information on patterns of employment, either full time or part time, for high school graduates continuously employed during the 6 years of the study. For these respondents full-time work is the dominant pattern. White men were the most likely high school graduates working full time for the 6 years following graduation (66%). Hispanic men had the second highest proportion (61%) and the rate of continuous full-time employment among Hispanic women was similar (59%) to white women. Black women and men had the lowest proportion (58 and 56%, respectively) of full-time continuous employment. Notably, gender differences for full-time workers of color are negligible. Continuous part-time work is rarely observed. Black women and men, and white women, had the highest proportion (5–7%) of those working part-time continuously, followed by white men, Hispanic men, and Hispanic women. The lower part of Panel B provides a break down of work patterns for those without continuous full- or part-time work over the study period. We identify transitional patterns: those in which high school graduation is followed first by part-time work, then full-time work. The majority of those exhibiting this kind of employment experience spend 2 or more years on part-time work before moving to full-time work. An even greater number of graduates who did not have continuous part-time or full-time employment followed what we call a non-directional pattern, in which respondents switch between part-time and full-time employment, but in no particular direction, often switching back-and-forth between states. Panel C of Table 1 lists patterns for high school graduates who worked between 1981 and 1986 and experienced at least one period of unemployment and/or one period OLF. Two
P.T. Ganderton et al. / The Social Science Journal 39 (2002) 301–307
305
types of patterns are presented to simplify the analysis for discontinuous employed graduates: transitional patterns, which are characterized by an initial period(s) of unemployment or OLF followed by continuous employment, and non-directional patterns, which are defined as non-transitional patterns in which the person switches between employment, unemployment and OLF activities with no implied sequence. Transitional patterns were less often observed than non-directional patterns; about one-fourth of black women, one-fifth of Hispanics and about one-seventh of black men and whites had an initial period of unemployment or OLF followed by continuous employment. Among those graduates with non-directional discontinuous employment, (varying combinations of employment, unemployment, and OLF activities with no implied sequence) the modal pattern is at least one period of OLF. White women had the highest proportion (45%) of discontinuous employment due to time OLF; Hispanic men and women had the second highest proportion (about 43–45%) with the same pattern. For black men and women, the proportion with discontinuous employment and at least one period of OLF were similar, 39%. The only exception to this pattern being the most observed are white men, who were equally (about 40%) likely to have employment broken by unemployment as leaving the workforce completely. White women were the least likely (16%) to have their employment broken by unemployment rather than leaving the workforce. A summary by years of unemployment and OLF for discontinuously employed high school graduates is presented in Panel D of Table 1 and gives even more detail on the data provided in Panel C of the table. During the 6 years after high school graduation, no labor force activity (OLF) appears to be a more frequent contributor to discontinuous employment than unemployment. An exception is white men whose employment were slightly more likely to be interrupted by unemployment periods than OLF. In general, women had a higher incidence of OLF than men, except for Hispanics for whom gender differences are marginal. White women were the most likely to have employment affected by leaving the labor force (OLF) as well as being the most likely with 2 or more years out of the labor force. For graduates showing discontinuous employment, the majority had at least 1 year of unemployment; with the exceptions being Hispanic men (44%) and white women (38%). Furthermore, minority graduates were more likely than whites to incur 2 or more years of unemployment—ranging from 26% for black women to 13% for Hispanic women, compared to 11% and 9% for white men and women.
4. Summary and conclusions Although the recession years in the early 1980s make it difficult to generalize about the patterns of employment after high school graduation to more recent periods, some conclusions can be drawn about the employment transitions of non-college bound high school graduates and the experiences of Hispanic high school graduates during the 1980s. Most high school graduates, not college bound, worked continuously in the years following graduation. Of those with continuous employment, full-time work is the modal pattern. Notably, gender differences discovered between the continuous and discontinuous employment distinction diminish when full-time continuous work is examined, except for whites.
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Our exploration of discontinuous work patterns shows that except for white men, periods of OLF are more common than periods of unemployment. Unemployment is nonetheless problematic for non-college youth with discontinuous employment experiences, irrespective of race and gender. Fully 52% of Hispanic women and 44% of Hispanic men experience at least one period of unemployment in the 6 years after graduation. The finding is important given the almost exclusive emphasis in the popular and academic literature on the unemployment problems of black youth. While this work is primarily descriptive, it is tempting to offer explanations for the patterns observed. Our analysis is unable to identify the causes of these patterns, but some factors offer themselves nonetheless. Labor market opportunities for high school graduates are relatively limited, yet nearly every high school graduate who does not go on to college finds employment, with the majority finding work straight after graduation. The desire to earn a living after formal education finishes is obvious, but less assuring is the large number of high school graduates who separate from the labor force within the first 6 years after high school. Marriage, child bearing, and other family reasons for leaving the labor force are potential factors influencing this outcome. Whatever the causes, these patterns of lack of attachment to the labor force, and multiple transitions between full-time and part-time jobs suggest little investment in job-specific human capital, and imply the establishment of an employment record that many employers would find unattractive. The results suggest that we would do well to re-think our assumptions about the school-towork process, particularly for graduates who do not seek further education and training. Most of the school-to-work literature employs some notion of “transition”, implying that while youth, and minorities in particular, have difficulty entering the labor market, most “problems” are ameliorated over time (e.g., Rees, 1986). In contrast, the results show that the transition is more chaotic and less predictable than conventionally defined. Indeed, most labor force interruptions occur after an initial period of employment. For Hispanics, and black men, identifying the reasons for being OLF are important because of their greater likelihood of entering continuous employment from OLF as opposed to unemployment. Notes 1. For a detailed description of the HSB Survey, refer to the technical users manuals provided by the U.S. Department of Education (1987). 2. Less than 1% of the respondents classified in the “no post-secondary” sample attended college for one semester. Inconsistencies in the educational files yielded this college status for 18 persons or less in the study. 3. The HSB data does not include information to determine whether part-time employment is voluntary or involuntary. Acknowledgments Funding for the study was provided under a grant by the Social Science Research Council/ Inter-University Program for Latino Research. Interpretations or views expressed in this study do not necessarily represent those of the funding agency.
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References Acs, G., & Danzinger, S. (1993). Educational attainment, industrial structure, and male earnings. Journal of Human Resources, 28, 618–648. Morales, R. (2000). What a Latino worker finds in the U.S. labor market. In S. M. Perez (Ed.), Moving up the economic ladder: Latino workers and the nation’s future prosperity (pp. 35–60). Washington, DC: National Council of La Raza. Rees, A. (1986). An essay on youth joblessness. Journal of Economic Literature, 24, 613–628. Tienda, M. (1995). Latinos and the American Pie: Can Latinos achieve economic parity? Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Sciences, 17, 403–429. U.S. Department of Education. (1987). High School and Beyond, 1980 senior cohort, third follow-up (1986), Vol. II, Data file user’s manual. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education.
Employment patterns of Hispanic high school graduates without college experience夽 Philip T. Ganderton a , Richard Santos a,∗ , Patricia Seitz b a
Department of Economics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque NM 87131, USA b Albuquerque Technical–Vocational Institute, Albuquerque NM 87106, USA
Abstract This study uses longitudinal data from the High School and Beyond Surveys (1980–1986) to construct employment patterns over a 6-year-period for graduates who did not attend college. Hispanic graduates are highlighted because less is known about their employment status upon finishing high school. Most of the high school graduates worked continuously following graduation and periods of not being in the labor force were more common than unemployment periods. Yet, among Hispanics, nearly half of the women and two-fifths of the men experienced at least one period of unemployment during the period under study. Interpretation of the various combinations of labor force activity presents a formidable challenge to researchers; the findings nevertheless provide a better portrayal of the dynamic school-to-work transition among youth. © 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction What happens to high school graduates who do not move into higher education? The new economic reality tells us that the prospects for “good jobs” for those without post-secondary experience has eroded significantly in the last two decades (e.g., Acs & Danzinger, 1993; Morales, 2000). Moreover, our understanding of the post-high school activities of Hispanic graduates is particularly sketchy (Tienda, 1995). Most research efforts have been directed to the study of white and African American youth. We seek to trace the employment patterns of high school graduates who did not attend a post-secondary educational institution; the time frame for the inquiry is the first 6 years following graduation. We highlight Hispanic high school graduates without post-secondary 夽
Authors are listed in alphabetical order, with commensurate contributions by each author to the article. Corresponding author. Tel.: +1-505-277-2107. E-mail address: [email protected] (R. Santos).
∗
0362-3319/02/$ – see front matter © 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved. PII: S 0 3 6 2 - 3 3 1 9 ( 0 2 ) 0 0 1 7 1 - 4
302
P.T. Ganderton et al. / The Social Science Journal 39 (2002) 301–307
education because most research on Hispanic youth concentrates either on the merits of high school completion relative to non-completion or advantages of a college education.
2. Data and methods Data for the study are drawn from the High School and Beyond (HSB) Survey; the National Center for Education Statistics initiated the survey to obtain longitudinal information on the educational experiences of students.1 We restricted the analysis to the high school senior cohort, i.e., those who graduated in 1980, who were interviewed in the 1980 base year and in each of the follow-up surveys in 1982, 1984 and 1986. The resulting sample of 10,158 individuals represents about 85% of the original group of seniors (n = 11,995). Six years after high school graduation, one-quarter of all seniors had not attended a postsecondary institution, or had attended only one semester.2 To construct employment patterns, we created indicators of “activity states” for the 6 years following high school graduation. The activity states make use of information on labor market status provided by the survey. Schooling data was used to confirm lack of involvement in higher education. Missing data on employment activity was substantial for employment “stop and start” dates and reduced the original sample size of high school graduates to 6,672; concentrating only on high school graduates with no college experience leaves us with a sample size of 1,805. The relevant employment activity states for the present analysis are: (1) working full time, or 35 or more hours per week; (2) working part time;3 (3) unemployed and looking for work; and (4) out of the labor force (OLF). Activity states for the HSB respondents are determined each February for the years 1981–1986. We selected a single month to simplify the pattern analysis; February was used because of its relationship to college enrollment status and allows direct comparison with a variable coded in the HSB sample as a validity check. Hence, the respondents’ activity status for the month of February represents their employment status for the full year, recognizing that during the course of a year respondents may experience multiple activities. As an example, an employment experience pattern may look like.
3. Employment patterns Approximately three-quarters of the sample respondents experienced a “unique” employment pattern, distinct from any other respondent. Women are more apt to exhibit unique patterns than men; about 45% of Hispanic women had unique patterns versus 30% of Hispanic men. Even with only four states in each of the 6 years, there are 4,096 distinct employment experience patterns possible. To render the analysis more manageable, we grouped patterns into the following summary categories shown in Panel A of Table 1: continuous work patterns—such as working full time or part time each period, discontinuous work patterns—with at least one period unemployed or OLF, and never employed. As one would expect from high school graduates who did not attend college, employment is the major activity. Panel A shows that almost every graduate worked either continuously or discontinuously during the 6 years after graduation. Very few high school graduates did not
P.T. Ganderton et al. / The Social Science Journal 39 (2002) 301–307
303
Table 1 Post-high school employment patterns of graduates with no post-secondary education Hispanic Women
Black Men
Panel A: Summary of patterns 1981–1986 (entries are percentages) Continuous employment 50.5 64.3 Discontinuous employment 46.4 35.7 No employment 3.1 –
Women
White Men
Women
Men
a
44.7 50.6 4.7
60.9 38.7 0.4
54.2 43.9 1.8
71.7 28.1 0.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Panel B: Detailed breakdown of continuous employment patterns Full time only 58.7 61.1 Part time only 1.0 1.6
57.9 6.6
56.3 5.3
58.7 4.9
65.9 2.4
Total
100.0
Transitional patternsb Subtotal 1 year part time ≥2 years part time
14.1 4.0 10.1
9.5 4.8 4.8
13.2 1.3 11.8
15.2 4.0 11.3
14.0 5.3 8.7
11.7 3.7 8.0
Non-directional patternsc Subtotal 1 year part time ≥2 years continuous part time
26.2 13.1 10.1
27.8 11.9 12.7
22.4 5.3 15.8
23.1 9.3 11.2
22.4 9.5 6.8
20.0 6.4 9.1
3.0
3.2
1.3
2.6
6.1
4.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
24.7 12.9 7.1 4.7
16.7 7.3 8.3 1.0
14.0 7.0 6.5 0.5
14.3 8.1 6.1 –
Other patterns Total
Panel C: Detailed breakdown of discontinuous employment patterns Transitional patternsd Subtotal 18.7 22.9 U into continuous employment 13.2 10.0 OLF into continuous employment 3.3 12.9 U & OLF 2.2 – Non-directional patternse Subtotal
81.3
77.1
75.3
83.3
86.0
85.7
Unemployment only Subtotal 1 year only ≥2 years
22.0 15.4 6.6
25.7 17.1 8.6
25.9 11.8 14.1
35.4 22.9 12.5
15.9 12.1 3.7
40.8 33.3 7.5
OLF only Subtotal 1 year only ≥2 years
45.1 15.4 29.7
42.9 27.1 15.7
38.8 11.8 27.1
35.4 16.7 21.9
15.9 22.9 32.2
40.8 26.5 12.9
Unemployment & OLF Subtotal
14.3
8.6
10.6
9.4
15.0
5.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Panel D: Summary of unemployment and OLF activities (Panel C data) 1 year unemployment 38.5 27.1 28.2 ≥2 years unemployment 13.2 17.1 25.9
34.4 18.8
29.4 8.9
43.5 10.9
Total
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Table 1 (Continued ) Hispanic Women
Black Men
Women
White Men
Women
Men
Total unemployment
51.6
44.3
54.1
53.1
38.3
54.4
1 year OLF ≥2 years OLF
24.2 38.5
42.9 21.4
25.9 35.3
27.1 30.2
34.1 43.0
34.7 16.3
62.6
64.3
61.2
57.3
77.1
51.0
Total OLF Sample size in each group
196
196
170
248
487
523
a
Continuous employment is defined as always working, part time or full time, from 1981 to 1986. Discontinuous employment refers to at least one period of unemployment (U) or one period OLF. b Transitional patterns of continuous employment are characterized by an initial period of part-time work followed by continuous full-time work. c Non-directional patterns of continuous employment are defined by periods of part-time and full-time work with no implied sequence (e.g., 2 years full time followed by 1 year part time then 3 years full time). d Transitional patterns of discontinuous employment are characterized by an initial period of unemployment or OLF followed by continuous work, part time or full time. e Non-directional patterns of discontinuous employment are defined as combinations of employment, unemployment, and OLF with no implied sequence.
work at all during the 6 years ranging from 5% among black women to less than 1% for men, irrespective of race. Men were more likely to exhibit continuous employment than women. Comparing racial groups, whites had the highest employment participation, Hispanics had lower participation rates and blacks showed the lowest participation rates. Panel B of Table 1 provides more detailed information on patterns of employment, either full time or part time, for high school graduates continuously employed during the 6 years of the study. For these respondents full-time work is the dominant pattern. White men were the most likely high school graduates working full time for the 6 years following graduation (66%). Hispanic men had the second highest proportion (61%) and the rate of continuous full-time employment among Hispanic women was similar (59%) to white women. Black women and men had the lowest proportion (58 and 56%, respectively) of full-time continuous employment. Notably, gender differences for full-time workers of color are negligible. Continuous part-time work is rarely observed. Black women and men, and white women, had the highest proportion (5–7%) of those working part-time continuously, followed by white men, Hispanic men, and Hispanic women. The lower part of Panel B provides a break down of work patterns for those without continuous full- or part-time work over the study period. We identify transitional patterns: those in which high school graduation is followed first by part-time work, then full-time work. The majority of those exhibiting this kind of employment experience spend 2 or more years on part-time work before moving to full-time work. An even greater number of graduates who did not have continuous part-time or full-time employment followed what we call a non-directional pattern, in which respondents switch between part-time and full-time employment, but in no particular direction, often switching back-and-forth between states. Panel C of Table 1 lists patterns for high school graduates who worked between 1981 and 1986 and experienced at least one period of unemployment and/or one period OLF. Two
P.T. Ganderton et al. / The Social Science Journal 39 (2002) 301–307
305
types of patterns are presented to simplify the analysis for discontinuous employed graduates: transitional patterns, which are characterized by an initial period(s) of unemployment or OLF followed by continuous employment, and non-directional patterns, which are defined as non-transitional patterns in which the person switches between employment, unemployment and OLF activities with no implied sequence. Transitional patterns were less often observed than non-directional patterns; about one-fourth of black women, one-fifth of Hispanics and about one-seventh of black men and whites had an initial period of unemployment or OLF followed by continuous employment. Among those graduates with non-directional discontinuous employment, (varying combinations of employment, unemployment, and OLF activities with no implied sequence) the modal pattern is at least one period of OLF. White women had the highest proportion (45%) of discontinuous employment due to time OLF; Hispanic men and women had the second highest proportion (about 43–45%) with the same pattern. For black men and women, the proportion with discontinuous employment and at least one period of OLF were similar, 39%. The only exception to this pattern being the most observed are white men, who were equally (about 40%) likely to have employment broken by unemployment as leaving the workforce completely. White women were the least likely (16%) to have their employment broken by unemployment rather than leaving the workforce. A summary by years of unemployment and OLF for discontinuously employed high school graduates is presented in Panel D of Table 1 and gives even more detail on the data provided in Panel C of the table. During the 6 years after high school graduation, no labor force activity (OLF) appears to be a more frequent contributor to discontinuous employment than unemployment. An exception is white men whose employment were slightly more likely to be interrupted by unemployment periods than OLF. In general, women had a higher incidence of OLF than men, except for Hispanics for whom gender differences are marginal. White women were the most likely to have employment affected by leaving the labor force (OLF) as well as being the most likely with 2 or more years out of the labor force. For graduates showing discontinuous employment, the majority had at least 1 year of unemployment; with the exceptions being Hispanic men (44%) and white women (38%). Furthermore, minority graduates were more likely than whites to incur 2 or more years of unemployment—ranging from 26% for black women to 13% for Hispanic women, compared to 11% and 9% for white men and women.
4. Summary and conclusions Although the recession years in the early 1980s make it difficult to generalize about the patterns of employment after high school graduation to more recent periods, some conclusions can be drawn about the employment transitions of non-college bound high school graduates and the experiences of Hispanic high school graduates during the 1980s. Most high school graduates, not college bound, worked continuously in the years following graduation. Of those with continuous employment, full-time work is the modal pattern. Notably, gender differences discovered between the continuous and discontinuous employment distinction diminish when full-time continuous work is examined, except for whites.
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Our exploration of discontinuous work patterns shows that except for white men, periods of OLF are more common than periods of unemployment. Unemployment is nonetheless problematic for non-college youth with discontinuous employment experiences, irrespective of race and gender. Fully 52% of Hispanic women and 44% of Hispanic men experience at least one period of unemployment in the 6 years after graduation. The finding is important given the almost exclusive emphasis in the popular and academic literature on the unemployment problems of black youth. While this work is primarily descriptive, it is tempting to offer explanations for the patterns observed. Our analysis is unable to identify the causes of these patterns, but some factors offer themselves nonetheless. Labor market opportunities for high school graduates are relatively limited, yet nearly every high school graduate who does not go on to college finds employment, with the majority finding work straight after graduation. The desire to earn a living after formal education finishes is obvious, but less assuring is the large number of high school graduates who separate from the labor force within the first 6 years after high school. Marriage, child bearing, and other family reasons for leaving the labor force are potential factors influencing this outcome. Whatever the causes, these patterns of lack of attachment to the labor force, and multiple transitions between full-time and part-time jobs suggest little investment in job-specific human capital, and imply the establishment of an employment record that many employers would find unattractive. The results suggest that we would do well to re-think our assumptions about the school-towork process, particularly for graduates who do not seek further education and training. Most of the school-to-work literature employs some notion of “transition”, implying that while youth, and minorities in particular, have difficulty entering the labor market, most “problems” are ameliorated over time (e.g., Rees, 1986). In contrast, the results show that the transition is more chaotic and less predictable than conventionally defined. Indeed, most labor force interruptions occur after an initial period of employment. For Hispanics, and black men, identifying the reasons for being OLF are important because of their greater likelihood of entering continuous employment from OLF as opposed to unemployment. Notes 1. For a detailed description of the HSB Survey, refer to the technical users manuals provided by the U.S. Department of Education (1987). 2. Less than 1% of the respondents classified in the “no post-secondary” sample attended college for one semester. Inconsistencies in the educational files yielded this college status for 18 persons or less in the study. 3. The HSB data does not include information to determine whether part-time employment is voluntary or involuntary. Acknowledgments Funding for the study was provided under a grant by the Social Science Research Council/ Inter-University Program for Latino Research. Interpretations or views expressed in this study do not necessarily represent those of the funding agency.
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