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Energy in Egypt: Resources, uses, and outlook to 2000
Enrqy Vol. 4, pp. lw-Ion @ Pergamn Press Ltd.. 1919.
Printed in Great Britain
ENERGY IN EGYPT: RESOURCES, USES, AND OUTLOOK TO 2000 SAID
h!. A. ~BBAIW.4
Al-Azhar University, Faculty of Engineering,MechanicalEngineeringDepartment, Nasr City, Cairo, Egypt (Received 12 January 1979) Abstract-The present and future energy situations in Egypt are assessed and evaluated. Data on energy resourcesand reserves, togetherwith the patternsof energy uses in the differentsectors, are presented.In the light of the availabledata, an outlook to the year 2tXtO is discussed.
1. INTRODUCTION
The problems associated with energy use are interwined and the solutions cannot be defined on national levels since international cooperation is necessary. The gap between the per capita energy consumption in developed and developing nations is large. The Americans, with only 6% of the world’s population, consume almost 35% of the world’s energy, with a per capita energy consumption of 310 x ld Btu/yr in 1970. The situation in countries like India and Egypt is striking; here, the per capita energy consumptions are only l/2.5 and l/30 that in the U.S.A., respectively. There is a strong correlation between per capita energy consumption and standard of living. In Egypt, the per capita energy consumption in 1977 was 16 x lob Btulyr, which is very low in comparison with the values in many other countries.’ This fact indicates how hard Egypt must work to explore all energy resources, to use efficient energy systems, to use new large-scale energy technologies, and to limit the birth rate substantially. The national policy should be planned to achieve a reasonable per capita energy consumption by 2tMl0,if the Egyptians* standard of living is to be brought to a decent and acceptable level. There should be five year plans until 2000 to achieve this goal. The environmental problems associated with large energy growth must be taken into consideration. The present paper gives data on the national energy resources and discusses the present energy situation. Many of the energy problems are dealt with and an outlook to the year 2000 is presented. 2. ENERGY RESOURCES IN EGYPT
The world’s energy resources have been discussed by the author? and it was shown how an energy resource may be evaluated in terms of its concentration and quality. (a) Oil
Oil was discovered in Egypt in 1868. The production of oil and the petrochemical industry were started in 1911 and the first refinery was built in 1913. Therefore, the oil and petroleum industry is not new in this country. The oil reserves in 1948 were 252.4 million barrels and decreased to 191.1 million barrels between 1945 and 1952. In 1952, the search area for oil was only 1490km*; oil search was done in an area of 2O,SOOkm*in 1%5 by five operating companies. In 1977, the search area covered SS,!XlO km’ and the number of operating companies increased to 29 of 13 different nationalities. These companies had resources to spend $833.6 million in oil exploration. However, the actual expenditure was only $232 million in 1977. Table 1 shows oil and gas production and reserves between lw8 and 112. The potential production capacity for the year 2WO is 721 x 106 barrels. The values given for the period 197-2 are estimated with reasonable accuracy; they are less accurate after 19%2.However, it is believed that the reserves will increase and it is hoped that the ratio of production to reserves will be reduced by lw(2 from the estimate of 0.069. Ninety-two per cent of the oil discoveries have been made in the bay of Suez. Table 2 shows the r&ring capacity of oil in Egypt for the period 1921-82. 1069
SAIDhi. A. 1aRAHlM
1070
Table 1. Oil and -nas .nruductionand reserveestimatesfor the ueriud 1948-82.Since 1%7,34.61millionbarrelshave been producedin the Sinai. This amountis not includedin the listed data. 1 I Tear Reeerroe Productlos&oeonor Production (million
bbl)
(~llllon
bbl)
1948
252.35
1952
191.07
1966
43.26
I
(%I
1972
138.43
2011.60
6.9
1977
153.57
3244.50
4.7
1978
191.07
3244.50
5.3
1979
243 .?0
3374.28
5.8
1980
282.63
3927.29
6.0
1981
321.57
4365.66
6.4
1982
356.90
4656.94
6.9
J
Table 2. Refiningcapacity between 1921and 1962. 1921
Tear
Wlllon
bK1 7.21 ,
1932
1967
1972
1977
1982
14.42
50.47
61.29
101.55
133.39 4
Table 3. Naturalpas reserves. Ram.
of field
AKu Uadia
(109 A
Bo~orrom 34
Ruuko Dimoormrod in
otutod
in 1975. Tho muhum
Production 3 Abu $l-Ghuadlek
22
1967; production
capaoitl la 3~110~
Par d4.
Mocotorod
In 1969 and no.
~~noiry.
Tim
dolly
produet-
ion oap8city %a 3x10’ 3,
Ahl lc1.r @ohoro
Rlaahulo
21
flold)
M8cororod
In 19691 Production
till
in 1979. Tho dolIP
otut
prodootloo T(IpAL
in 3st106 m3.
77
(b) Natural gas There have been three major discoveries of gas in Egypt and Table 3 gives the reserves in each gas field. The additional amount of 1J x 109m”of gas is produced from oil wells and may be utilized in making fertilizers and to generate electricity for perhaps 20 years. It is important to emphasize that estimates of oil and gas reserves, no matter how performed, are not independent. A lack of geological knowledge is apt to cause an error in both estimates. In other words, if oil estimates are too low or too high, then the natural gas estimates are probably also too low or too high. When oil runs out, it is likely that natural gas will also run out.
Energy in Egypt: resources,uses, and outlook to 2000 (c)
1071
Coal The estimated reserves are SOx 106tons and exist mainly in the Sinai. These reserves could
be utilized in the near future. (d) Nucleisrfuels There are no indications that uranium exists in Egypt. Geolo@al surveys performed since l%l show that there are very small quantities in the Eastern desert, which are uneconomical to explore. other studies have predicted that sizable amounts of uranium and thorium oxides exist in the Mediterranean and in the Red Sea. However, uranium recovery is presently uneconomical unless it is combined with a larger project to recover other ores in these regions. Therefore, a national program to build nuclear power stations must depend on importing the necessary nuclear fuels. (e) Renewable resources At present, hydropower generates about 20% of the total energy consumption of the country. Almost 70% of the total electricity is produced from hydropower. Fire 1 shows the development of electric power production since 1952,from hydro and thermal sources. Also shown is the ratio of hydroelectricity to the total generated electrical power from all sources. Two thirds of the potential hydropower of the Nile has already been developed. Hydropower produces a total of 2445MW, of which the High Dam delivers 2100MW and the Aswan Dam 345MW. The remaining third could be recovered by constructing a second Aswan Dam and by building small dams along the Nile to utihxe the head difference of 70 m between Cairo and Aswan. The first scheme would produce 16oMWand the latter 635MW. Gther hydropower sources which are still unexplored include: (1) the Quattara depression project where the level of depression is 135m below sea level. The hydraulic head would be 60 m and the generated power could reach 640MW. The construction period is estimated to be 10-12years. (2) Water pumping and storage at sites such as the Ataka mountain and El-Sokhna
Fik 1. Thermal and hydroekctric powers for Egypt, and the percentagzof hydroelectricityto total electric power from 1952 to 1977.
1072
SAIDhf.
A.IBRAHIM
near Suez, El-Moukattam mountain near Cairo, and Negaa Hamadi in Upper Egypt. The total electrical hydropower from these pumped storage stations is estimated to be 2040 MW. In summary, the total potential hydropower of the country amounts to 5920 MW, of which 2445 MW are produced at present. The present generated hydropower per year at 100% load factor saves about 12.5 million bbl of petroleum per year, and the specified total potential hydropower would save about 30 million bbl of petroleum per year. Other continuous resources include solar energy, geothermal energy, wind power, and ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC). As for solar energy, this resource is abundant in Egypt. The sun shines in Egypt for almost 3600 hr per yr. The number of hours of sun shine during March, June, and December are, on the average, 8.5, 12, and 7 hr per day, respectively. Solar energy may be utilized either indirectly (e.g. wind energy, photosynthesis, and OTEC) or directly (e.g. in water and space heating and cooling, crop drying, and electricity generation). The magnitudes for Egypt are very large, but the costs may be high. For low per capita energy consumption, as in Egypt, it is evident that heavy reliance in power generation must be placed on resources and technologies that could generate large quantities of energy, and which would have a large and direct effect on the energy picture of the country. Therefore, it is advisable not to spend large sums on expensive and new energy resources and technologies (e.g. solar energy). Instead, money should be directed to more useful and relevant areas. Solar energy could be economical for water heating and crop drying but may never be suitable for large-scale electricity generation. Other renewable resources are generally too expensive to rely on. A detailed discussion on energy technologies and their prospects is given by the author in another paper.* The only available technology as a substitute to fossil fuels and hydropower is nuclear energy. To use this technology, Egypt will have to import it. However, it is right to say that Egypt has the potential to use this technology. 3.ENERGYFLOWSINEGYPTDURINGPV7
In this section, the flow of energy from different resources through the Egyptian system, in 1977, is discussed and the overall efficiency of the system is determined. Energy resources are hydropower, fossil fuels, crop residue, wood, animal waste, and human and animal power. Electricity is generated from hydropower and from thermal power stations. Energy is consumed in the following sectors: (1) residential, commercial, and municipal units (including electrification); (2) industry; (3) irrigation and agriculture; and (4) transportation. (a) Electricity The national unified electric power system began to operate in 1962; it was completed and all power stations were interconnected by 1%8. The total installed capacity of the national unified electric power system is now about 4000MW. Hydropower accounts for 2445 MW, oil-fired plants for 1420MW, and gas turbine plants for 137 MW. The annual energy generated is about 70% from hydropower and 30% from thermal sources. Major system generating facilities consist of the Aswan power cascade in Upper Egypt and of groups of oil-fired plants located around Cairo, Alexandria, and in the Nile Delta. The latter plants constitute what is known as the Lower Energy Power System and are interconnected by a 220 kv network. The Aswan hydro block is connected to the Lower Egypt Power System through two 500 kv, single circuit transmission lines which extend over 800 km. There are two 500/132 kv intermediate substations between Aswan and the Cairo 500/200 kv substations, where auto-transformers provide the interconnection with the Lower Egypt 220 kv Power System. The total peak load in 1977 was 2280 MW and the total annual energy was 13.45Terrawatthr, while these figures in 1976 were 1909MW and 11.6Terrawatt-hr, respectively. The total installed capacities of power plants reached about 4000 MW while the total system capacity is about 28lOMW. The available system capacity, therefore, is only 70% of the total installed system capacity. The per capita electrical power consumption in Egypt is very low indeed. It is only about 350 kWh/capita-yr, in comparison to about gOO0kWh in the U.S.A. and about 2500-5000 kWh in Europe. The rural electrification program, now under way, will serve to overcome many of the hardships suffered by the citizens because of the lack of electricity. This program is a big
1073
Energy in Egypt: resoufccs,uses, and outlook to 2000
Tabk4. Ratesof groathof ekdcd m
(t973-77).
YOU
0.5
1973 1974
14
1975
15
1976
20
1971
16
consumer of electricity and will continue to be so for a long time to come. The percentage rates of growth of electrical power consumption between 1973 and 1977 are shown in Table 4. In 1977, the growth rate was decreased deliberately due to a deficit in electric power generation, which the country is facing. The demand for electricity is increasing rapidly in all areas of application. A typical energy load pattern for the National Unified Power System showed that 60% of electricity was consumed in industry, 5% in agriculture, and the rest was consumed in residential units, rural electritkation, municipalities, and transportation. (6) Fossil fuels In 1977, the country consumed a total of 9071 X ld tons of oil, gas, and petroleum products, against 8151 x ld tons in 1966. Table 5 gives the consumption of each product for 1976and 1977. The figures in Table 5 were 3057,4010,4618,5911, and 6172 thousand tons in the years 1952, 1957, 1%2,1%7, and 1972, respectively. These data show that the consumption first doubled in 20 yr and then increased by almost 50% in the following five years from 1972 to 1977. (c) 0~~11 e#iciency of the Egyptian energy system The total gross energy consumption in 1977 was 611.7 x lo’* Btu, as shown in Table 6.
The total energy supplied by oil and gas did not take into account oil lubricants, grease, and solvents (6.32 x 10” Btu). The table shows that about 15.5% of the energy is supplied by low Table 5. Consumption of petroleum productsand gas during 1976 and 1977. Product
coMllmption 1916
Iadustrlal(r-00
94
(12
toae) 1977
170
Butma
211
248
Benzene
736
816
Naphtha
10
KO~OdJW
011
1225
(lU
Solar
oil
Dioa.1 011 Hoary
oil
?IlOl 6Mee bwt
LubrIcanta Uolreate TWNi
and grease
21 1305
98
101
1327
1481
1%
149
4012
4292
16
192
123
138
126
139
23
19
8151
9071
1074
SAID
M. A. IBRAHIM
Table 6. Energy consumption from dierent sources in 1977. SOWCO
Conaumptlon 10’2 Blv
96
342.78
56.04
Oas
24.22
3.96
Coal
24.47
4
Oil and petroleum
products
125.5
HI&o Crop
residue
animal vast e Wood Human mad
animal
power
73.44
12
12.23
2
2.94
0.48
6.12
1
611.7~10'~
TOTAL
20.52
100 %
quality sources. The consumption of coal is small, and this indicates that both reserves and production are not extensive. It is clear that there is heavy reliance on oil, gas, and hydropower. These latter resources supply 80.52% of the total energy consumption. Energy is utilized in diIIerent sectors for the specified resources as shown in Table 7. The data in this table have been calculated on the basis of extensive studies and research. The electricity consumed in the various sectors, as given in Table 7, was calculated by using a net generated electricity of 39.27 x 10” Btu from all sources. The gross energy consumed to generate this electricity is 188.18X lo’* Btu (125.5 x lO’*Btu from hydropower and 62.7 x lo’* Btu from oil and gas). This shows that the conversion e5ciency for electricity generation was only 24.36%; this estimate takes into account a loss of 7.73 x lOI*Btu in transmission. The consumptions of oil and gas in the diierent sectors, as indicated in Table 7, were calculated on the basis of the quantities available after subtracting the amounts consumed in electricity generation (62.7 x IO’*Btu); the result is found to be (36762.7) x lo’* = 304.3 x IO’*Btu. In calculating the useful work and waste energy, the following efficiencies have been considered: (1) 70% for the direct use of oil, gas, and coal: (2) 1% for the conversion of crop residue and animal waste into heat; (3) 4% for the conversion of wood into heat; (4) 5% for the conversion of human and animal power into work; (5) 25, 80, 60, and 60%, respectively, for the use of electricity in the four sectors mentioned; and (6) 25% for internal combustion engines. Fire 2 shows the flow of energy through the Egyptian system in 1977, as drawn from the data in Table 7. The useful work is only 218.29 x lo’* Btu, and the waste energy amounts to 393.53 x lo’* Btu. Thus, the overall efficiency of the system is 35%, which is very low indeed. In 1970, the gross U.S.A. consumption of energy was 65 X 1Or5Btu, and ended up as 32.8 x 10” Btu of useful work and 31.8 x 1OuBtu of waste heat, i.e. a 51% overall efficiency was obtained. Responsible for the low Egyptian efficiency is the use of low quality fuels and the low conversion efficiency to electricity of 24.36% compared to the usually obtained value of 32%. The data in Table 7 and Fig. 2 show the following results: The per capita gross energy consumption = 16.1 x 106Btulyr. The per capita useful work = 5.74 x 106Btulyr. If hydropower, oil, gas, and coal are the only sources to be considered, then the per capita energy consumption would be 13.1 x ldBtu/yr. The per capita energy consumption in 1952 was 6.61 x ltiBtu/yr, i.e. it has increased about 2.5 times in 25 yr, which means a long doubling period. 4. OUTLOOK
TOTHE YEAR 2000
It is apparent that the per capita energy consumption is low in Egypt, in parallel with low per capita income. This fact reflects the effect of energy use on the people’s standard of living. The present national plan is to bring the current per capita energy consumption up to 17.01x ld Btulyr in 1982 and to 40.44 x 106Btu/yr by 2080. These values show how far away Egypt will be from the rest of the world by the year 2000. The specified plan is a short-sighted one and means that the Egyptians’ standard of living by 2000 will still be very low. This result is
1075
Energy in Egypt: resourws, uses, and outlook to 2ooo Table 7. Patternsof energy consumptionin 1977. 1. Ro6ldentlal,
con~rclal,
aad wnlclpal Share Oaod
Source or End 080
(%I
unlta
Co-ptlon (10’2m)
(lncludlag
lloctrlfleat1on)
Uemful Fork (1O’Gm)
Nuto
Enorgy
( IO’zllrO)
Rleetrlclty
33
12.%
3.24
9.27
011 aad gas
15
45.64
31.95
13.69
1
0.24
coal
0.17
0.07
Crop rwldue
100
73.4
0.73
72.69
AlhaI
100
12.23
0.12
12.11
100
2.94
0.15
2.79
ra8to
Wood
subtotal
147.41
36.36
111.05
(31.86%)
L
2. Indlletry Eloctrlclty
60
011 md ga6
58
176.49
coal
99
24.22
Subtotal
23.56
244.27
18.85
123.54 16.95
159.34
4.71
52.95 7.27
64.93
(48.47%) 3.
Irrlgatlba
and agrlcultura 0.78
5
011 and gas
7
21.3
50
3.06
0.15
2.91
26.32
6.65
19.67
O-4?
0.32
Kuua and animal
powor
Subtotal
1.96
1.18
Electrlelt~
5.32
7
15.98
(5.69%) 4. Traaaportatlon
RIoctrlclty
2
0.79
011 aad 6Ur
20
60.06
15.21
Ruaaa md 8nlma.l powor
50
3.06
0.15
subtotal
64.7 1
45.65 2.91
15.83
48.88
218.18
244.53
(13.98%) ORARDTUl’N.
I
462.7 (100%)
I
unacceptable for a nation that now has very low per capita energy consumption and consequently a very low per capita income (about $2OO/yrat present). It is unrealistic to allow this situation to continue, especially when one realizes what the world will looklikein 2000. Any policy should be designed to close the wide gap with the rest of the world. It is realized that such a policy will prove difficult to implement and will require very hard and responsible work. However, augmented energy use is a must if the standard of living and the quality of life of the citizens are to be brought to decent and acceptable levels. The help and cooperation of the developed world are vitally needed in this endeavor. The present data show that the national energy resources are limited. These resources are not su!Ecient to supply all of the energy needs of the country. In fact, Egypt faces an energy crisis. Many factories do not find enough energy to operate at full capacity, and some factories cannot even start. There is just not enough energy to meet the ever-increasing demand. If this
1076
SAID hi. A. lBRAHlM
Gross consumption (X 10” Mu)
Waste in conversion and transmission 149
Energy consumed for electricity 188.1% (30.77%)
Hydro 125.5
Residential, commercial, and municipal units (including electrification) (31.eesq
Gas 24.22
Waste 393.53
Petroleum & oil 324.78 Coal 24.47
Fuel consumed in end uses 417.3 f68.22” ’
Animal waste
Industry (48.47%)
M
73.44 Human
6.12 (1%)
_
Irrigation 8 agriculture
1 d
6.65
Transportation (13.98%)
a animal pow& 6.12
Total =611.7 X IO’* Btu (100%)
Fig. 2. Flow of energy throughthe Egyptiansystem for 1977.
state of affairs is allowed to continue, then the consequences for the economy are grave. Table 1 shows that oil and gas reserves are small. In 1982, if the ratio of production to reserves is kept at 0.069 per yr, then the reserves of 4656.94 million bbl will last for only 13yr unless the reserves are increased substantially. This conclusion also applies to coal reserves. As for hydropower, the potential power could amount to 592OMW, i.e. 2.42 times its present value. Table 8 shows the possible amounts of energy which could be supplied by the available resources for the period 1977-2003. Table 8 indicates that the available resources will allow a pet capita energy consumption in 2003 of only 47.67 x 106Btulyr. A reasonable per capita energy consumption should be three to four times as much, i.e. in the range of 150-200 Btulyr by 2000. This means that the doubling period should be 5-6 yr. One cannot see that this long-term goal could be achieved by solar energy, wind power, tidal energy, geothermal energy, or OTEC. It is doubtful that solar energy will ever prove to be feasible for large-scale power generation; the same statement applies to the other undeveloped technologies. Therefore, the country cannot afford to experiment with these technologies or to wait until they become feasible. The technology available at present to Table 8. Energyfrom diierent availablesources (1977-2003). You
Population (million)
Enorg
from
Olla8d~U
~lO’%TU)
Emorgy
from
lIy&opoTu
Energy from
Enorw
coal
Other Sources
from
(ro’%rD)
OO’%rQ)
(lO’%TlJ)
Total
l!w7
38
367
125.5
24.47
94.69
611.7
1982
46
1254.5
125.5
24.47
94.69
1499.2
1967
52
1463.6
230.2
89.47
30
1873.3
1992
58
1672.7
230.2
89.47
PO
2002.4
1997
64
2090.9
ao.2
89.47
90
2sCo.6
2003
70
2927.3
230.2
89.47
90
3336.97
Energy in Egypt: resources,uses.and outhwk tu 2tNlO
1077
supply the large amounts of energy required is n&ear energy. Energy technologies and their present state of the art have been discussed previously.2We believe that the introduction of nuclear technology is of vital importance to Egypt; otherwise, the economic consequences appear to be grave. This introduction cannot be accomphshed without the help of the developed world. The following problems must be considered: (1) Whether the nations who have the nuclear technoiogy would come to the help of Egypt on the required huge-scale. (2) Whether the Egyptian economy and indeed the whole system would be capable to accept this aid. (3)The capability to cope with the environmental problems associated with IarBeenergy growth (which has been discussed by Ibrahimq. It is also important to limit the birth rate substantially, which is as hi as 2.3% per yr at present. Also, high-efficiencyenergy systems should be used and conservation methods should be devised and implemented. 5. REFERENCES 1. E. H. Thorndie, Energy and Ettvhnmmt, p. Iw).Addison-Wesky, Reading, Mass. (1916). 2. Said M. A. Ibrahim, Long Range Planning, 1980, unpublished.
Printed in Great Britain
ENERGY IN EGYPT: RESOURCES, USES, AND OUTLOOK TO 2000 SAID
h!. A. ~BBAIW.4
Al-Azhar University, Faculty of Engineering,MechanicalEngineeringDepartment, Nasr City, Cairo, Egypt (Received 12 January 1979) Abstract-The present and future energy situations in Egypt are assessed and evaluated. Data on energy resourcesand reserves, togetherwith the patternsof energy uses in the differentsectors, are presented.In the light of the availabledata, an outlook to the year 2tXtO is discussed.
1. INTRODUCTION
The problems associated with energy use are interwined and the solutions cannot be defined on national levels since international cooperation is necessary. The gap between the per capita energy consumption in developed and developing nations is large. The Americans, with only 6% of the world’s population, consume almost 35% of the world’s energy, with a per capita energy consumption of 310 x ld Btu/yr in 1970. The situation in countries like India and Egypt is striking; here, the per capita energy consumptions are only l/2.5 and l/30 that in the U.S.A., respectively. There is a strong correlation between per capita energy consumption and standard of living. In Egypt, the per capita energy consumption in 1977 was 16 x lob Btulyr, which is very low in comparison with the values in many other countries.’ This fact indicates how hard Egypt must work to explore all energy resources, to use efficient energy systems, to use new large-scale energy technologies, and to limit the birth rate substantially. The national policy should be planned to achieve a reasonable per capita energy consumption by 2tMl0,if the Egyptians* standard of living is to be brought to a decent and acceptable level. There should be five year plans until 2000 to achieve this goal. The environmental problems associated with large energy growth must be taken into consideration. The present paper gives data on the national energy resources and discusses the present energy situation. Many of the energy problems are dealt with and an outlook to the year 2000 is presented. 2. ENERGY RESOURCES IN EGYPT
The world’s energy resources have been discussed by the author? and it was shown how an energy resource may be evaluated in terms of its concentration and quality. (a) Oil
Oil was discovered in Egypt in 1868. The production of oil and the petrochemical industry were started in 1911 and the first refinery was built in 1913. Therefore, the oil and petroleum industry is not new in this country. The oil reserves in 1948 were 252.4 million barrels and decreased to 191.1 million barrels between 1945 and 1952. In 1952, the search area for oil was only 1490km*; oil search was done in an area of 2O,SOOkm*in 1%5 by five operating companies. In 1977, the search area covered SS,!XlO km’ and the number of operating companies increased to 29 of 13 different nationalities. These companies had resources to spend $833.6 million in oil exploration. However, the actual expenditure was only $232 million in 1977. Table 1 shows oil and gas production and reserves between lw8 and 112. The potential production capacity for the year 2WO is 721 x 106 barrels. The values given for the period 197-2 are estimated with reasonable accuracy; they are less accurate after 19%2.However, it is believed that the reserves will increase and it is hoped that the ratio of production to reserves will be reduced by lw(2 from the estimate of 0.069. Ninety-two per cent of the oil discoveries have been made in the bay of Suez. Table 2 shows the r&ring capacity of oil in Egypt for the period 1921-82. 1069
SAIDhi. A. 1aRAHlM
1070
Table 1. Oil and -nas .nruductionand reserveestimatesfor the ueriud 1948-82.Since 1%7,34.61millionbarrelshave been producedin the Sinai. This amountis not includedin the listed data. 1 I Tear Reeerroe Productlos&oeonor Production (million
bbl)
(~llllon
bbl)
1948
252.35
1952
191.07
1966
43.26
I
(%I
1972
138.43
2011.60
6.9
1977
153.57
3244.50
4.7
1978
191.07
3244.50
5.3
1979
243 .?0
3374.28
5.8
1980
282.63
3927.29
6.0
1981
321.57
4365.66
6.4
1982
356.90
4656.94
6.9
J
Table 2. Refiningcapacity between 1921and 1962. 1921
Tear
Wlllon
bK1 7.21 ,
1932
1967
1972
1977
1982
14.42
50.47
61.29
101.55
133.39 4
Table 3. Naturalpas reserves. Ram.
of field
AKu Uadia
(109 A
Bo~orrom 34
Ruuko Dimoormrod in
otutod
in 1975. Tho muhum
Production 3 Abu $l-Ghuadlek
22
1967; production
capaoitl la 3~110~
Par d4.
Mocotorod
In 1969 and no.
~~noiry.
Tim
dolly
produet-
ion oap8city %a 3x10’ 3,
Ahl lc1.r @ohoro
Rlaahulo
21
flold)
M8cororod
In 19691 Production
till
in 1979. Tho dolIP
otut
prodootloo T(IpAL
in 3st106 m3.
77
(b) Natural gas There have been three major discoveries of gas in Egypt and Table 3 gives the reserves in each gas field. The additional amount of 1J x 109m”of gas is produced from oil wells and may be utilized in making fertilizers and to generate electricity for perhaps 20 years. It is important to emphasize that estimates of oil and gas reserves, no matter how performed, are not independent. A lack of geological knowledge is apt to cause an error in both estimates. In other words, if oil estimates are too low or too high, then the natural gas estimates are probably also too low or too high. When oil runs out, it is likely that natural gas will also run out.
Energy in Egypt: resources,uses, and outlook to 2000 (c)
1071
Coal The estimated reserves are SOx 106tons and exist mainly in the Sinai. These reserves could
be utilized in the near future. (d) Nucleisrfuels There are no indications that uranium exists in Egypt. Geolo@al surveys performed since l%l show that there are very small quantities in the Eastern desert, which are uneconomical to explore. other studies have predicted that sizable amounts of uranium and thorium oxides exist in the Mediterranean and in the Red Sea. However, uranium recovery is presently uneconomical unless it is combined with a larger project to recover other ores in these regions. Therefore, a national program to build nuclear power stations must depend on importing the necessary nuclear fuels. (e) Renewable resources At present, hydropower generates about 20% of the total energy consumption of the country. Almost 70% of the total electricity is produced from hydropower. Fire 1 shows the development of electric power production since 1952,from hydro and thermal sources. Also shown is the ratio of hydroelectricity to the total generated electrical power from all sources. Two thirds of the potential hydropower of the Nile has already been developed. Hydropower produces a total of 2445MW, of which the High Dam delivers 2100MW and the Aswan Dam 345MW. The remaining third could be recovered by constructing a second Aswan Dam and by building small dams along the Nile to utihxe the head difference of 70 m between Cairo and Aswan. The first scheme would produce 16oMWand the latter 635MW. Gther hydropower sources which are still unexplored include: (1) the Quattara depression project where the level of depression is 135m below sea level. The hydraulic head would be 60 m and the generated power could reach 640MW. The construction period is estimated to be 10-12years. (2) Water pumping and storage at sites such as the Ataka mountain and El-Sokhna
Fik 1. Thermal and hydroekctric powers for Egypt, and the percentagzof hydroelectricityto total electric power from 1952 to 1977.
1072
SAIDhf.
A.IBRAHIM
near Suez, El-Moukattam mountain near Cairo, and Negaa Hamadi in Upper Egypt. The total electrical hydropower from these pumped storage stations is estimated to be 2040 MW. In summary, the total potential hydropower of the country amounts to 5920 MW, of which 2445 MW are produced at present. The present generated hydropower per year at 100% load factor saves about 12.5 million bbl of petroleum per year, and the specified total potential hydropower would save about 30 million bbl of petroleum per year. Other continuous resources include solar energy, geothermal energy, wind power, and ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC). As for solar energy, this resource is abundant in Egypt. The sun shines in Egypt for almost 3600 hr per yr. The number of hours of sun shine during March, June, and December are, on the average, 8.5, 12, and 7 hr per day, respectively. Solar energy may be utilized either indirectly (e.g. wind energy, photosynthesis, and OTEC) or directly (e.g. in water and space heating and cooling, crop drying, and electricity generation). The magnitudes for Egypt are very large, but the costs may be high. For low per capita energy consumption, as in Egypt, it is evident that heavy reliance in power generation must be placed on resources and technologies that could generate large quantities of energy, and which would have a large and direct effect on the energy picture of the country. Therefore, it is advisable not to spend large sums on expensive and new energy resources and technologies (e.g. solar energy). Instead, money should be directed to more useful and relevant areas. Solar energy could be economical for water heating and crop drying but may never be suitable for large-scale electricity generation. Other renewable resources are generally too expensive to rely on. A detailed discussion on energy technologies and their prospects is given by the author in another paper.* The only available technology as a substitute to fossil fuels and hydropower is nuclear energy. To use this technology, Egypt will have to import it. However, it is right to say that Egypt has the potential to use this technology. 3.ENERGYFLOWSINEGYPTDURINGPV7
In this section, the flow of energy from different resources through the Egyptian system, in 1977, is discussed and the overall efficiency of the system is determined. Energy resources are hydropower, fossil fuels, crop residue, wood, animal waste, and human and animal power. Electricity is generated from hydropower and from thermal power stations. Energy is consumed in the following sectors: (1) residential, commercial, and municipal units (including electrification); (2) industry; (3) irrigation and agriculture; and (4) transportation. (a) Electricity The national unified electric power system began to operate in 1962; it was completed and all power stations were interconnected by 1%8. The total installed capacity of the national unified electric power system is now about 4000MW. Hydropower accounts for 2445 MW, oil-fired plants for 1420MW, and gas turbine plants for 137 MW. The annual energy generated is about 70% from hydropower and 30% from thermal sources. Major system generating facilities consist of the Aswan power cascade in Upper Egypt and of groups of oil-fired plants located around Cairo, Alexandria, and in the Nile Delta. The latter plants constitute what is known as the Lower Energy Power System and are interconnected by a 220 kv network. The Aswan hydro block is connected to the Lower Egypt Power System through two 500 kv, single circuit transmission lines which extend over 800 km. There are two 500/132 kv intermediate substations between Aswan and the Cairo 500/200 kv substations, where auto-transformers provide the interconnection with the Lower Egypt 220 kv Power System. The total peak load in 1977 was 2280 MW and the total annual energy was 13.45Terrawatthr, while these figures in 1976 were 1909MW and 11.6Terrawatt-hr, respectively. The total installed capacities of power plants reached about 4000 MW while the total system capacity is about 28lOMW. The available system capacity, therefore, is only 70% of the total installed system capacity. The per capita electrical power consumption in Egypt is very low indeed. It is only about 350 kWh/capita-yr, in comparison to about gOO0kWh in the U.S.A. and about 2500-5000 kWh in Europe. The rural electrification program, now under way, will serve to overcome many of the hardships suffered by the citizens because of the lack of electricity. This program is a big
1073
Energy in Egypt: resoufccs,uses, and outlook to 2000
Tabk4. Ratesof groathof ekdcd m
(t973-77).
YOU
0.5
1973 1974
14
1975
15
1976
20
1971
16
consumer of electricity and will continue to be so for a long time to come. The percentage rates of growth of electrical power consumption between 1973 and 1977 are shown in Table 4. In 1977, the growth rate was decreased deliberately due to a deficit in electric power generation, which the country is facing. The demand for electricity is increasing rapidly in all areas of application. A typical energy load pattern for the National Unified Power System showed that 60% of electricity was consumed in industry, 5% in agriculture, and the rest was consumed in residential units, rural electritkation, municipalities, and transportation. (6) Fossil fuels In 1977, the country consumed a total of 9071 X ld tons of oil, gas, and petroleum products, against 8151 x ld tons in 1966. Table 5 gives the consumption of each product for 1976and 1977. The figures in Table 5 were 3057,4010,4618,5911, and 6172 thousand tons in the years 1952, 1957, 1%2,1%7, and 1972, respectively. These data show that the consumption first doubled in 20 yr and then increased by almost 50% in the following five years from 1972 to 1977. (c) 0~~11 e#iciency of the Egyptian energy system The total gross energy consumption in 1977 was 611.7 x lo’* Btu, as shown in Table 6.
The total energy supplied by oil and gas did not take into account oil lubricants, grease, and solvents (6.32 x 10” Btu). The table shows that about 15.5% of the energy is supplied by low Table 5. Consumption of petroleum productsand gas during 1976 and 1977. Product
coMllmption 1916
Iadustrlal(r-00
94
(12
toae) 1977
170
Butma
211
248
Benzene
736
816
Naphtha
10
KO~OdJW
011
1225
(lU
Solar
oil
Dioa.1 011 Hoary
oil
?IlOl 6Mee bwt
LubrIcanta Uolreate TWNi
and grease
21 1305
98
101
1327
1481
1%
149
4012
4292
16
192
123
138
126
139
23
19
8151
9071
1074
SAID
M. A. IBRAHIM
Table 6. Energy consumption from dierent sources in 1977. SOWCO
Conaumptlon 10’2 Blv
96
342.78
56.04
Oas
24.22
3.96
Coal
24.47
4
Oil and petroleum
products
125.5
HI&o Crop
residue
animal vast e Wood Human mad
animal
power
73.44
12
12.23
2
2.94
0.48
6.12
1
611.7~10'~
TOTAL
20.52
100 %
quality sources. The consumption of coal is small, and this indicates that both reserves and production are not extensive. It is clear that there is heavy reliance on oil, gas, and hydropower. These latter resources supply 80.52% of the total energy consumption. Energy is utilized in diIIerent sectors for the specified resources as shown in Table 7. The data in this table have been calculated on the basis of extensive studies and research. The electricity consumed in the various sectors, as given in Table 7, was calculated by using a net generated electricity of 39.27 x 10” Btu from all sources. The gross energy consumed to generate this electricity is 188.18X lo’* Btu (125.5 x lO’*Btu from hydropower and 62.7 x lo’* Btu from oil and gas). This shows that the conversion e5ciency for electricity generation was only 24.36%; this estimate takes into account a loss of 7.73 x lOI*Btu in transmission. The consumptions of oil and gas in the diierent sectors, as indicated in Table 7, were calculated on the basis of the quantities available after subtracting the amounts consumed in electricity generation (62.7 x IO’*Btu); the result is found to be (36762.7) x lo’* = 304.3 x IO’*Btu. In calculating the useful work and waste energy, the following efficiencies have been considered: (1) 70% for the direct use of oil, gas, and coal: (2) 1% for the conversion of crop residue and animal waste into heat; (3) 4% for the conversion of wood into heat; (4) 5% for the conversion of human and animal power into work; (5) 25, 80, 60, and 60%, respectively, for the use of electricity in the four sectors mentioned; and (6) 25% for internal combustion engines. Fire 2 shows the flow of energy through the Egyptian system in 1977, as drawn from the data in Table 7. The useful work is only 218.29 x lo’* Btu, and the waste energy amounts to 393.53 x lo’* Btu. Thus, the overall efficiency of the system is 35%, which is very low indeed. In 1970, the gross U.S.A. consumption of energy was 65 X 1Or5Btu, and ended up as 32.8 x 10” Btu of useful work and 31.8 x 1OuBtu of waste heat, i.e. a 51% overall efficiency was obtained. Responsible for the low Egyptian efficiency is the use of low quality fuels and the low conversion efficiency to electricity of 24.36% compared to the usually obtained value of 32%. The data in Table 7 and Fig. 2 show the following results: The per capita gross energy consumption = 16.1 x 106Btulyr. The per capita useful work = 5.74 x 106Btulyr. If hydropower, oil, gas, and coal are the only sources to be considered, then the per capita energy consumption would be 13.1 x ldBtu/yr. The per capita energy consumption in 1952 was 6.61 x ltiBtu/yr, i.e. it has increased about 2.5 times in 25 yr, which means a long doubling period. 4. OUTLOOK
TOTHE YEAR 2000
It is apparent that the per capita energy consumption is low in Egypt, in parallel with low per capita income. This fact reflects the effect of energy use on the people’s standard of living. The present national plan is to bring the current per capita energy consumption up to 17.01x ld Btulyr in 1982 and to 40.44 x 106Btu/yr by 2080. These values show how far away Egypt will be from the rest of the world by the year 2000. The specified plan is a short-sighted one and means that the Egyptians’ standard of living by 2000 will still be very low. This result is
1075
Energy in Egypt: resourws, uses, and outlook to 2ooo Table 7. Patternsof energy consumptionin 1977. 1. Ro6ldentlal,
con~rclal,
aad wnlclpal Share Oaod
Source or End 080
(%I
unlta
Co-ptlon (10’2m)
(lncludlag
lloctrlfleat1on)
Uemful Fork (1O’Gm)
Nuto
Enorgy
( IO’zllrO)
Rleetrlclty
33
12.%
3.24
9.27
011 aad gas
15
45.64
31.95
13.69
1
0.24
coal
0.17
0.07
Crop rwldue
100
73.4
0.73
72.69
AlhaI
100
12.23
0.12
12.11
100
2.94
0.15
2.79
ra8to
Wood
subtotal
147.41
36.36
111.05
(31.86%)
L
2. Indlletry Eloctrlclty
60
011 md ga6
58
176.49
coal
99
24.22
Subtotal
23.56
244.27
18.85
123.54 16.95
159.34
4.71
52.95 7.27
64.93
(48.47%) 3.
Irrlgatlba
and agrlcultura 0.78
5
011 and gas
7
21.3
50
3.06
0.15
2.91
26.32
6.65
19.67
O-4?
0.32
Kuua and animal
powor
Subtotal
1.96
1.18
Electrlelt~
5.32
7
15.98
(5.69%) 4. Traaaportatlon
RIoctrlclty
2
0.79
011 aad 6Ur
20
60.06
15.21
Ruaaa md 8nlma.l powor
50
3.06
0.15
subtotal
64.7 1
45.65 2.91
15.83
48.88
218.18
244.53
(13.98%) ORARDTUl’N.
I
462.7 (100%)
I
unacceptable for a nation that now has very low per capita energy consumption and consequently a very low per capita income (about $2OO/yrat present). It is unrealistic to allow this situation to continue, especially when one realizes what the world will looklikein 2000. Any policy should be designed to close the wide gap with the rest of the world. It is realized that such a policy will prove difficult to implement and will require very hard and responsible work. However, augmented energy use is a must if the standard of living and the quality of life of the citizens are to be brought to decent and acceptable levels. The help and cooperation of the developed world are vitally needed in this endeavor. The present data show that the national energy resources are limited. These resources are not su!Ecient to supply all of the energy needs of the country. In fact, Egypt faces an energy crisis. Many factories do not find enough energy to operate at full capacity, and some factories cannot even start. There is just not enough energy to meet the ever-increasing demand. If this
1076
SAID hi. A. lBRAHlM
Gross consumption (X 10” Mu)
Waste in conversion and transmission 149
Energy consumed for electricity 188.1% (30.77%)
Hydro 125.5
Residential, commercial, and municipal units (including electrification) (31.eesq
Gas 24.22
Waste 393.53
Petroleum & oil 324.78 Coal 24.47
Fuel consumed in end uses 417.3 f68.22” ’
Animal waste
Industry (48.47%)
M
73.44 Human
6.12 (1%)
_
Irrigation 8 agriculture
1 d
6.65
Transportation (13.98%)
a animal pow& 6.12
Total =611.7 X IO’* Btu (100%)
Fig. 2. Flow of energy throughthe Egyptiansystem for 1977.
state of affairs is allowed to continue, then the consequences for the economy are grave. Table 1 shows that oil and gas reserves are small. In 1982, if the ratio of production to reserves is kept at 0.069 per yr, then the reserves of 4656.94 million bbl will last for only 13yr unless the reserves are increased substantially. This conclusion also applies to coal reserves. As for hydropower, the potential power could amount to 592OMW, i.e. 2.42 times its present value. Table 8 shows the possible amounts of energy which could be supplied by the available resources for the period 1977-2003. Table 8 indicates that the available resources will allow a pet capita energy consumption in 2003 of only 47.67 x 106Btulyr. A reasonable per capita energy consumption should be three to four times as much, i.e. in the range of 150-200 Btulyr by 2000. This means that the doubling period should be 5-6 yr. One cannot see that this long-term goal could be achieved by solar energy, wind power, tidal energy, geothermal energy, or OTEC. It is doubtful that solar energy will ever prove to be feasible for large-scale power generation; the same statement applies to the other undeveloped technologies. Therefore, the country cannot afford to experiment with these technologies or to wait until they become feasible. The technology available at present to Table 8. Energyfrom diierent availablesources (1977-2003). You
Population (million)
Enorg
from
Olla8d~U
~lO’%TU)
Emorgy
from
lIy&opoTu
Energy from
Enorw
coal
Other Sources
from
(ro’%rD)
OO’%rQ)
(lO’%TlJ)
Total
l!w7
38
367
125.5
24.47
94.69
611.7
1982
46
1254.5
125.5
24.47
94.69
1499.2
1967
52
1463.6
230.2
89.47
30
1873.3
1992
58
1672.7
230.2
89.47
PO
2002.4
1997
64
2090.9
ao.2
89.47
90
2sCo.6
2003
70
2927.3
230.2
89.47
90
3336.97
Energy in Egypt: resources,uses.and outhwk tu 2tNlO
1077
supply the large amounts of energy required is n&ear energy. Energy technologies and their present state of the art have been discussed previously.2We believe that the introduction of nuclear technology is of vital importance to Egypt; otherwise, the economic consequences appear to be grave. This introduction cannot be accomphshed without the help of the developed world. The following problems must be considered: (1) Whether the nations who have the nuclear technoiogy would come to the help of Egypt on the required huge-scale. (2) Whether the Egyptian economy and indeed the whole system would be capable to accept this aid. (3)The capability to cope with the environmental problems associated with IarBeenergy growth (which has been discussed by Ibrahimq. It is also important to limit the birth rate substantially, which is as hi as 2.3% per yr at present. Also, high-efficiencyenergy systems should be used and conservation methods should be devised and implemented. 5. REFERENCES 1. E. H. Thorndie, Energy and Ettvhnmmt, p. Iw).Addison-Wesky, Reading, Mass. (1916). 2. Said M. A. Ibrahim, Long Range Planning, 1980, unpublished.