Ensuring access to electricity and minimum basic electricity needs as a goal for the post-MDG development agenda after 2015

Energy for Sustainable Development 19 (2014) 29–38

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Energy for Sustainable Development

Review

Ensuring access to electricity and minimum basic electricity needs as a goal for the post-MDG development agenda after 2015 Chian-Woei Shyu 1 Department of Political Science, National Chung Cheng University, 168 University Road, Min-Hsiung, Chia-Yi 62102, Taiwan

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history: Received 27 February 2013 Revised 12 June 2013 Accepted 15 November 2013 Available online 13 January 2014 Keywords: Access to electricity MDGs Energy poverty

a b s t r a c t Lack of access to electricity is linked to poverty and human development. In 2009, the number of people without access to electricity exceeded 1.3 billion, about one-fifth of the world's population. More than 99.8% of this total lives in developing countries, and more than 84% lives in rural areas. The eight current United Nations Millennium Development Goals (UN MDGs) and their respective targets do not include any target or indicator associated with energy. Many studies, however, have concluded that access to electricity must play a variety of vital direct and indirect roles in achieving the MDGs. As the MDGs are due to be met in 2015, the Member States of the United Nations have, since 2010, been debating and formulating a new framework for the post-2015 UN development agenda. The aim of this study is to argue, based on a review of statistical data on energy use and the normative rationales of the MDGs, that ensuring access to electricity and meeting minimum basic electricity needs of the energy poor should be considered by governments and the international community as a goal for the post-2015 UN development agenda. © 2013 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contents Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scope of study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Access to electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Electricity and human development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Access to electricity and poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Access to electricity and human development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Access to electricity and MDGs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Post-2015 Development Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Access to electricity and post-2015 UN development agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A goal for the post-2015 UN development agenda: ensuring access to electricity and minimum basic electricity needs Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Introduction Energy, especially electricity, is a driving force in economic, social, and human development (UNDP, 2003; United Nations, 2000; World Bank, 2001; United Nations, 2004: 221; IEA, 2010: 238). In 2009, more than 1.3 million people in the world still lacked access to electricity

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(IEA, 2011). Access to electricity remains a public problem that affects many people in many developing countries. Most governments in developing countries have given a high priority to rural electrification to meet economic, social, political, and regional development goals (World Bank, 1996a). In general, however, remote rural areas in developing countries have little prospect of gaining access to gridbased electricity (United Nations, 2000). According to the latest figures on electrification rates, in 2009, more than 84% of people without access to electricity lived in rural areas. Electrification programs have been

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criticized for focusing on areas where electrification is most cost effective or where communities can most easily afford electricity service (World Bank, 2008: 18–19). Although the poor are also included in electrification programs, electrification programs favor mainly the non-poor and better-off communities in developing countries (World Bank, 2008: 18–21; Cook, 2011). The development and progress of current electrification programs have not bridged the gap between the rich and the poor in terms of access to modern energy services but have actually worsened rich–poor disparities. “If the vicious cycle of energy poverty and human under-development is to be broken, governments must act to improve the availability and affordability of modern energy services, especially electricity” (IEA, 2004: 353). However, access to electricity is not among the eight current UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and their respective targets. Electricity serves as the basis for satisfying fundamental human needs, such as food production, clean water, sanitation, education services, health care, and social services. As a result, access to electricity plays a vital role in helping to achieve the current MDGs. It is argued by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that the MDGs will not be achieved by 2015 if the problem of lack of access to electricity is not overcome (IEA, 2010). Because the MDGs are due to be met in 2015, the Member States of the United Nations have, since 2010, been debating and formulating a new framework for the post-2015 UN development agenda. Hence, the aim of this study is to argue, based on a review of statistical data on energy use and the normative rationales of the MDGs, that ensuring access to electricity and meeting the minimum basic electricity needs of the energy poor should be considered by governments and the international community as a goal of the post-2015 UN development agenda. Scope of study Although the scope of the analysis in this paper is limited to address access to electricity for the poor and secure minimum basic electricity needs, the issue of resolving energy poverty for access to modern cooking fuels and improved cooking stoves or reducing the share of the population relying on traditional biomass should be addressed as well when setting the MDG targets for the post-2015 UN development agenda. In developing countries, around 60% of people do not have access to modern cooking fuels (Legros et al., 2009: 13). In the least developing countries (LDCs) and sub-Saharan Africa, around 85% of people do not have access to modern cooking fuels (Legros et al., 2009: 13). Around 80% of the expenditure on energy services by poor people is on cooking fuels, not including the opportunity cost on time spent on collecting fuel wood and health costs of indoor air pollution (UN-Energy, 2005: 4; Flavin and Aeck, 2005: 19). Many studies have argued the importance of improving access to modern cooking energy for the poor (see Bhattacharyya, 2012; Foell et al., 2011; Goldemberg et al., 2004; IEA, 2010, 2011; Maes and Verbist, 2012; Modi et al., 2005; Pachauri and Spreng, 2011; Rehman et al., 2012). To achieve the UN initiatives on Universal Energy Access, access to modern cooking fuels and improved cooking stoves, and secure minimum basic modern cooking fuels should be included as a goal of the post-2015 UN development agenda. For focusing on the aim of this study, the paper addresses only the debate and discussion about access to electricity. However, modern cooking fuels for the poor should not be ignored when arguing justification for including energy access in the post-2015 UN development agenda. Access to electricity According to the latest statistical data provided by IEA (2011), in 2009, the number of people without access to electricity exceeded 1.3 billion, about one-fifth of the world's population (see Table 1).

More than 99.8% of this total lives in developing countries, and more than 84% lives in rural areas. These numbers imply that people without access to electricity live mostly in rural areas of developing countries. Compared to the OECD and transition economy countries, where electrification rates had already reached 99.5% in 2006 (IEA, 2006), the problem of lack of access to electricity in developing countries has remained unsolved and should be given more attention by governments and the international community. The circumstances of people lacking access to electricity differ across regions (see Fig. 1). The problem is particularly serious in Africa, where the electrification rate is only 42% (587 million people without access to electricity) and in the developing countries of Asia where the electrification rate is 81% (675 million people without access to electricity). Among nations, sub-Saharan African countries and some developing Asian countries have notably low shares of their populations with access to electricity. Examples include the Democratic Republic of the Congo (with an electrification rate of 11%), Tanzania (with an electrification rate of 14%), Kenya (with an electrification rate of 16%), Ethiopia (with an electrification rate of 17%), Myanmar (with an electrification rate of 13%), and Bangladesh (with an electrification rate of 41%). Although the proportion of the world's population without access to electricity has fallen sharply, from 51% in 1970 to 41% in 1990, 27% in 2000, and 19% in 2009 (IEA, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2011), the number of people without electricity still exceeds 1.3 billion. Despite increased prosperity and more advanced technology in the provision of modern energy services in the twenty-first century, improvement of access to electricity in developing countries is still fairly slow, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. From 2000 to 2009, the electrification rate in Africa increased from 23% to 42% (see Table 2). However, the total population without access to electricity did not fall, but rose. The population without access to electricity remains above 500 million (see Table 2), the overall population in Africa continues to increase even as many efforts are made to reduce the number of people without access to electricity. In other words, the gradual improvement in electrification rates has been offset by population growth.

Table 1 Electrification rates in 2009. Source: Compiled by the author, based on IEA (2011). Area

Population without access to electricity (million)

Share of population without access to electricity (%)

World Rural Urban Developing countries Rural Urban Latin America Middle East Developing Asia Myanmar Bangladesh Pakistan Indonesia India Rest of developing Asia Africa DR of Congo Tanzania Kenya Ethiopia Nigeria Other sub-Saharan Africa North Africa

1317 1109 208 1314 1106 208 31 21 675 44 96 64 82 289 102

19% 16% 3% 25% 21% 4% 7% 11% 19% 87% 59% 38% 36% 25% 6%

587 59 38 33 69 76 310

58% 89% 86% 84% 83% 49% 68%

2

1%

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Fig. 1. Share of people without access to electricity in developing countries, 2008. Note: n.a. = not available; LDCs = Least Developed Countries. Source: Data from Legros et al. (2009). Redrawn by author.

Although electrification rates have improved steadily in Africa, the need to provide access to electricity to the remaining more than 500 million people remains a challenging development issue.

Electricity and human development Lack of access to electricity is linked to poverty and human development. Energy poverty is defined by the UNDP as the “inability to cook with modern cooking fuel and the lack of a bare minimum of electric lighting to read or for other household and productive activities at sunset” (Gaye, 2007: 4). The Asian Development Bank defines energy poverty, in a multi-dimensional way, as “the absence of sufficient choice in accessing adequate, affordable, reliable, highquality, safe, and environmentally benign energy services to support economic and human development” (Masud et al., 2007: 47). There are different ways to measure concepts related to energy and development or energy and poverty, including single indicators and composite indices (Barnes et al., 2011; Bazilian et al., 2010; Nussbaumer et al., 2012; Pachauri et al., 2004; Sagar, 2005). In this study, three pairs of indicators (using four different indicators in all) are used to analyze the role of electricity in human development. The first pair is the share of the population with access to electricity and the share of the population with income below two dollars a day. The second pair is the share of the population with access to electricity and the Human Development Index (HDI). The third pair is percapita electricity consumption per year and the HDI.

Access to electricity and human development As indicated in some studies, there is a growing consensus that electricity is especially crucial to human development (UNDP, 2000, 2001; World Bank, 2001). During the early stages of a country's development, the amount of electricity consumed by a population is a key contributor to that process (IEA, 2004). A measure of the stage of human development in a country, commonly used by the international community, is the Human Development Index (HDI). The HDI comprises four indicators: life expectancy at birth; the adult literacy rate; the combined gross enrolment ratio in primary, secondary, and tertiary level education; and GDP per capita in Purchasing Power Parity US Dollars (PPP USD) (UNDP, 2007: 225). A positive correlation is found between access to electricity and HDI (see Fig. 4). A country with a lower share of the population with access to electricity tends to have a lower HDI. The quantity of electricity consumed affects human development. There is a strong positive correlation between electricity consumption below 5000 kWh per year and HDI (see Fig. 5). The lower a country's HDI score is, the lower per capita electricity consumption per year tends to be. HDI plateaus at per capita electricity consumption levels of about 5000 kWh per year. Yet when an HDI score reaches at least 0.8, per capita growth of electricity consumption is possible. However, one should be aware that electricity consumption per capita might give a distorted view, because a very small number of people in a country may consume enormous quantities of electricity, while the majority of the population consumes very little. This situation could happen in developing countries. Nevertheless, from the above discussion, it is clear that electricity is essential for human development.

Access to electricity and poverty Lack of access to electricity is closely linked to poverty (Cecelski, 2003; World Bank, 1996b, 2001, 2008). A strong correlation exists between access to electricity and the number of people who live on less than two dollars per day (see Fig. 2). In a given country, the higher the share of the population with access to electricity is, the smaller the share of the population with income of less than two dollars a day tends to be, and vice versa. Among developing countries, those with a greater than 50% share of the population living on less than two dollars per day tend to have electrification rates of less than 80% (see Fig. 3). When the share of the population with access to electricity in a country is below 80%, the share of the population with an income of less than two dollars per day is mostly above 40%.

Table 2 Electrification rate and population without access to electricity in 2000, 2005, and 2009. Source: Compiled by the author, based on IEA (2002, 2004, 2006, 2011). Area

World

2000

2005

2009

Electrification rate (%) Population without access to electricity (million)

Electrification rate (%) Population without access to electricity (million)

Electrification rate (%) Population without access to electricity (million)

76% 1577 million 69% 1569 million 26% 547 million

81% 1317 million 75% 1314 million 42% 587 million

73% 1645 million Developing 64% countries 1634.2 million Africa 23% 508.9 million

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Fig. 2. Electricity access and household income. Source: Data from IEA (2002) and World Bank (2001). Redrawn by author.

Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) The MDGs were set forth in the United Nations Millennium Declaration, adopted in 2000 by world leaders at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. The heads of state committed their nations to a new global partnership to reduce extreme poverty and hunger, and to this end, they set a series of targets with the deadline in 2015. The campaign for the MDGs was initiated in 2002. It aimed to inspire people from around the world to take action in support of the Millennium goals. A concrete action plan, the Millennium Project, was developed in the same year by the United Nations Secretary-General to promote the achievement of these goals. The eight MDGs and their respective targets are listed in Table 3. Access to electricity and MDGs The eight current UN MDGs and their respective targets do not include targets or indicators associated with energy. By contrast, access to primary schooling, reproductive health, medical treatment for HIV/AIDS, affordable essential drugs, safe drinking water, and

basic sanitation are included in the targets or indicators of the MDGs. Many studies, however, suggest that access to electricity could play a variety of direct and indirect roles in helping to achieve the MDGs (DFID, 2002; Flavin and Aeck, 2005; Kanagawa and Nakata, 2008; Modi et al., 2005; Sovacool, 2012; UNDP et al., 2004; UN-Energy, 2005): First, access to electricity helps to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger (Goal 1): Access to electricity facilitates economic development by, for example, fostering the growth of micro-enterprise, enabling livelihood activities to continue beyond daylight hours, improving the efficiency of locally owned businesses (thereby generating increased employment), enabling the development of more efficient and healthier means of undertaking productive activities, and helping to bridge the ‘digital divide’. Halving the proportion of the population living on less than one dollar a day by 2015 (see Table 3 Target 1.A) is unlikely to occur unless electricity is provided to those who now lack access to it (IEA, 2004, 2006).

Fig. 3. Electricity access and household income in developing countries. Note: The size of the bubble is proportional to population. Source: Data from IEA (2010). Redrawn by author.

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exceeds 60%, the mortality rate for children under five is relatively low. Fifth, access to electricity helps to ensure environmental sustainability (Goal 7): Electricity can be used to power water pumps that provide drinking water, thereby facilitating the achievement of Target 7.C, of halving, by 2015, the proportion of the population without sustainable access to safe drinking water (see Table 3). The use of renewable energy to provide electricity to the poor can help to achieve sustainable use of natural resources, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby protecting the local and global environment. Fig. 4. Electricity access and HDI. Source: Data from Legros et al. (2009). Redrawn by author.

Second, access to electricity helps to achieve universal primary education (Goal 2): Access to electricity reduces the time spent by children on basic survival activities, such as gathering fuel wood, fetching water, and cooking. Lighting permits home study, increases security, and enables the use of educational media and communications in schools, including information and communication technologies (ICT). In the UNDP/WHO study, it was found that education enrolment ratios correlate with access to electricity (see Fig. 6). Third, access to electricity helps promote gender equality and the empowerment of women (Goal 3): Access to electricity reduces the physical burden and time spent by women and children, especially girls, in gathering and carrying fuel wood and fetching water. Electrification provides women with more efficient and healthier means of undertaking basic household tasks and promotes increased opportunities for employment, such as running small household businesses. In addition, better street lighting improves safety for women at night. Fourth, access to electricity helps reduce child mortality, improve maternal health, and combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases (Goal 4, Goal 5, and Goal 6): Electricity is a key component of a functioning health system, enabling, for example, increased lighting, the refrigeration of vaccines and other medicines, and the use of electrical medical equipment. In the UNDP-WHO study, it was found that childhood mortality is correlated with access to electricity (see Fig. 7). When the share of the population with access to electricity

In light of the above discussion and arguments, it is clear that access to electricity is crucial to the UN MDGs. Access to modern energy has, in the past, been proposed as one of the MDG targets but has never been adopted (Practical Action, 2010). Such a target, were it adopted, would have committed the world community to cutting in half the proportion of the population without access to electricity in given regions, beginning in 2008. Fig. 8 shows the difference in outcomes between inclusion and exclusion of access to electricity among the targets of the MDGs. Lack of access to electricity, thus, will hamper the attainment of the MDGs and their respective targets by 2015. Post-2015 Development Agenda At the 2010 MDG Summit, Member States requested that the United Nations Secretary-General publish annual reports about the activities, consultations, and analytical work relating to the achievement of the eight MDGs. The report provides information to Member States about the post-2015 UN development agenda. The main function of the report is to review progress toward the achievement of the MDGs, contents and processes of the framework, and areas for improvement, given current development challenges. The aim is to formulate a new framework for the post-2015 UN development agenda. Access to electricity and post-2015 UN development agenda According to a projection by the IEA, without any policy interventions to improve electrification rates, the number of people without electricity in 2015 will be about 1.4 billion people, representing about 17% of the world's population (IEA, 2010). Furthermore, the number

Fig. 5. Per capita electricity consumption per year and HDI in 2002. Source: Data from IEA (2004). Redrawn by author.

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Table 3 United Nations Millennium Development Goals. Source: Compiled by the author, based on information provided on the United Nations official website of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, http:// www.un.org/millenniumgoals. Goals

Targets

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Target 1.A: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day Target 1.B: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people Target 1.C: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger Target 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling Target 3.A: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015 Target 4.A: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate Target 5.A: Reduce by three quarters the maternal mortality ratio Target 5.B: Achieve universal access to reproductive health Target 6.A: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS Target 6.B: Achieve, by 2010, universal access to treatment for HIV/AIDS for all those who need it Target 6.C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases Target 7.A: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs and reverse the loss of environmental resources Target 7.B: Reduce biodiversity loss, achieving, by 2010, a significant reduction in the rate of loss Target 7.C: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of the population without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation Target 7.D: By 2020, to have achieved a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers Target 8.A: Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial system Target 8.B: Address the special needs of least developed countries Target 8.C: Address the special needs of landlocked developing countries and small island developing States Target 8.D: Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries Target 8.E: In cooperation with pharmaceutical companies, provide access to affordable essential drugs in developing countries Target 8.F: In cooperation with the private sector, make available benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Goal 5: Improve maternal health

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development

of people without access to electricity in 2030 will still be 1.2 billion, representing about 15% of the world's population. Moreover, 87% of them will be living in rural areas of developing countries. The problem of access to electricity for the poor will unfortunately persist and even deepen. Without rigorous policy intervention, motivated by the presence of specific goals or targets in the post-2015 UN development agenda, to put pressure on and provide timelines for governments and the international community in order to accelerate the process of bringing electricity to the poor, the problem of lack of access to electricity will not significantly improve. Such a lack of improvement will further hamper the achievement of the post-2015 UN development agenda, whatever goals or targets may be decided upon.

Fig. 6. Electricity access and the education enrolment ratio. Source: Data from Legros et al. (2009). Redrawn by author.

A goal for the post-2015 UN development agenda: ensuring access to electricity and minimum basic electricity needs The Advisory Group on Energy and Climate Change (AGECC), established by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, proposed, as part of the post-2015 UN development agenda, the goal of achieving universal access to modern energy services, including access to electricity and clean cooking facilities, by 2030 (AGECC, 2010). To achieve this goal, IEA (2010) developed a Universal Modern Energy Access Case to illustrate what would be required (see Table 4). Although this proposal is still under discussion by governments and the international community, it is a milestone in the response to the issue of access to electricity for the poor. However, as this proposal evolves in the future, it is still critical to discuss the definition of the concept ‘access to electricity’ and its meaning for the poor. This study does not intend to propose a specific goal or target with a particular time frame or to propose different indicators for measuring progress toward the goal or target. Such matters should be debated and discussed by governments and the international community. This study does not offer concrete solutions to the issue of lack of access to electricity, as there have been many studies providing insights and proposing solutions to this problem, with respect to the technological, financial, and institutional options available for improving access to electricity (see Table 5). Instead, this study analyzes several important aspects of the concept ‘access to electricity’ in terms of the needs of the poor. This analysis is, however, essential for setting relevant goals, targets, or indicators. Without a commonly accepted definition of the concept ‘access to electricity’, setting such goals, targets, or indicators will be difficult.

Fig. 7. Electricity access and child/maternal mortality rates. Source: Data from Legros et al. (2009). Redrawn by author.

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Fig. 8. Difference of including and excluding access to electricity in the targets for MDGs by regions. Source: Data from Practical Action (2010). Redrawn by author.

There is no universally accepted definition of ‘access to electricity’. Access to electricity is defined by the IEA as “people who have electricity in their home. It comprises electricity sold commercially, both on-grid and off-grid. It also includes self-generated electricity” (IEA, 2002: 395). The UNDP-WHO report defines access to electricity as “people that have a household electricity connection” (Legros et al., 2009). The above definitions of ‘access to electricity’ refer only to the physical availability of electricity. This definition was modified by the IEA in 2011 by incorporating into it the concepts of ‘consumption of a specified minimum level of electricity’ and ‘attainment of the average regional consumption level over a period of time’. Thus, the refined definition of access to electricity is “connection to electricity and then an increasing level of electricity consumption over time to reach the regional average” (IEA, 2011). This definition incorporates additional aspects of the concept of ‘access to electricity’, notably, that the provision of electricity be sustained, reliable, and affordable. This definition reflects the fact that eradication of energy poverty requires long-term efforts so that levels of electricity consumption can reach regional averages over time. Bhattacharyya (2012), however, has criticized the notion of the regional average level of electricity consumption as an acceptable minimum level of electricity consumption because of its potential to encourage wasteful consumption and the perpetuation of unsustainable lifestyles.

Practical Action (2012) developed the Electricity Access Index, with five levels that range from ‘no access to electricity at all’ to ‘reliable AC connection available for all uses’ (see Table 6). However, the definition of ‘access to electricity’ used in the Electricity Access Index still refers to the physical availability of electricity. Bazilian et al. (2010) suggest three categories for measuring energy access: a uni-dimensional indicator or set of indicators, a composite index, and a hybrid approach that aggregates a set of indicators and a composite index. Based on the above discussion, the concept of ‘access to electricity’ does not have only the one-dimensional meaning of physical availability of electricity, although physical availability of electricity is a precondition for having access to electricity. Access to electricity may vary by quantity (e.g., hours of availability per day), quality (e.g., rated voltage and frequency), and use (e.g., lamps, as well as a wide range of electrical appliances) (Legros et al., 2009). Physical availability of electricity does not alone ensure or enable the use of electricity in quantities and qualities adequate to meet basic needs (Pachauri, 2011). Using only physical availability of electricity to

Table 5 Technological, financial, and institutional options for improving access to electricity. Source: Compiled by the author, based on Barnes (2011) and IEA (2010, 2011). Technological option

Table 4 IEA Universal Modern Energy Access Case. Source: Compiled by the author, based on IEA (2010).

Projected number of people without access to electricity Projected electrification rate Targets in the Universal Modern Energy Access Case

Under the above target, the number of people should be provided access to electricity Under the above target, the total investment should be required

Financial option

2015

2030

1.4 million people

1.2 million people

81% 86% access to electricity 1 billion people without access to electricity Provide 395 million people with electricity access 223 billion (2010–2015) Annually 37 billion

85% 100% access to electricity

Institutional option Provide 1 billion people with electricity access 700 billion (2010–2030) Annually 33 billion

- Gird solutions (energy source: fossil fuels, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and renewable energy) - Mini-grid (energy source: solar photovoltaic, wind, mini-hydro, biomass, diesel) - Off-grid solution (energy source: solar photovoltaic, wind, mini-hydro, biomass, diesel) - Multilateral development fund (such as World Bank Group, regional development banks, and multilateral funds) - Bilateral development fund (such as 24 OECD countries) - National fund by developing countries - Private sector fund - Public private partnership - Bank finance at multilateral, bilateral, and local level - Microfinance - Carbon financing - Policies - Targets - Strategies - Measures - Monitoring arrangements - Regulations - Institutions at the international, national, and local level

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Table 6 Electricity Access Index. Source: Compiled by the author, based on Practical Action (2012). Level

Quality of supply

0 1 2

No access to electricity at all Access to third-party battery charging only Access to stand-alone electrical appliance (e.g., solar Lantern, solar phone charger) Own limited power access for multiple home applications (e.g., solar home systems or power-limited off-grid) Poor quality and/or intermittent AC connection Reliable AC connection available for all uses

3 4 5

define the concept ‘access to electricity’ ignores several important dimensions associated with access, such as accessibility, acceptability, affordability, reliability or quality (that electricity be available regularly, without interruption, and in an unadulterated form, with quality standardized), sufficiency or adequacy (that electricity be available above a minimum threshold quantity), and minimum energy services (Pachauri, 2011). Practical Action (2012) developed a multi-dimensional concept of access to electricity, including reliability (availability in terms of hours per day and predictability), quality (voltage and frequency fluctuation ± 10%), affordability (proportion of operating costs, including capital cost and payback if financed), and adequacy (peak power availability). To incorporate the abovementioned dimensions into the concept of access to electricity, the concept of ‘guaranteeing a certain minimum amount of electricity for basic human needs for the energy poor in a sustainable way and over the long term’ should be taken into account. Instead of only ensuring physical availability of electricity, access to electricity should include access to a certain minimum amount of electricity necessary to meet basic human needs so that electrification can ultimately positively affect poverty reduction and the achievement of the UN development agenda. Hence, the concept of access to electricity should have a multi-dimensional meaning that includes physical availability, acceptability, affordability, reliability, sufficiency, adequacy, and minimum energy services. What is the minimum amount of electricity required to meet basic human needs? The basic needs for electricity in a rural household in a developing country are mainly for lighting and low-powered electrical appliances, such as televisions, radios, and mobile phones (Barnes and Floor, 1996; Kaygusuz, 2011; Mapako and Mbewe, 2004; United Nations, 2000; World Bank, 2000, 2008). Such needs are not necessarily homogeneous, however (Bhattacharyya, 2012). Given that development levels, culture, climate, customs, social norms, living standards,

Table 7 Definition of the minimum amount of basic electricity needs. Source: Compiled by the author, based on United Nations (2000); IEA (2003); Modi et al. (2005); IEA (2008); Sanchez (2010); Government of India (2011); IEA (2009, 2010); AGECC (2010). United Nations (2000: 6) IEA (2003) Modi et al. (2005) Government of Philippines (IEA, 2008) Government of South Africa (IEA, 2008) Sanchez (2010) Government of India (2011) IEA (2009) IEA (2010)

AGECC (2010)

Household: 150 Wh per day Person: 50 kWh per year or 137 Wh per day Household: 75 kWh per year or 205 Wh per day Person: 15 kWh per year or 41 Wh per day Household: 120 kWh per year or 329 Wh per day Household: 600 kWh per year or 1644 Wh per day Household: 600 kWh per year or 1644 Wh per day Person: 120 kWh per person or 329 Wh per day Person: 96 kWh per year or 263 Wh per day Person: 50 kWh per year or 137 Wh per day Household: 250 kWh per year or 685 Wh per day (the use of 2 compact fluorescent lamps, a floor fan, and a radio for 5 h per day) Person: 50 kWh per year or 137 Wh per day Person: 100 kWh per year or 274 Wh per day

age, sex, and needs of the energy poor differ markedly across countries and across population groups within countries, setting a commonly agreed minimum amount of electricity for basic human needs is a challenging task. Moreover, basic human needs might change over time. However, several studies have tried to define the minimum amount of electricity required to meet basic human needs, particularly with reference to the energy poor (see Table 7). Setting an internationally agreed upon definition of the minimum amount of electricity required to meet basic human needs is essential for the UN development goals and targets to have a benchmark for measuring progress. Another important issue regarding the setting of a minimum amount of electricity required to meet basic human needs is how to define ‘basic human needs’. Improving access to energy services can be considered an incremental process that starts at the level of basic human needs, then moves on to levels required for productive use, and finally addresses to the needs of a modern society (see Fig. 9). To provide the minimum amount of electricity to the poorest, meeting basic human needs should be a priority. However, what kinds of basic human needs should be considered? Access for what purposes will affect the minimum amount of electricity that should be included for meeting these purposes? Practical Action (2010, 2012) defined six core categories of basic human needs, including lighting, cooking and water heating, space heating, cooling, information and communications, and earning a living. Nine minimum standards are set to ensure that these basic human needs are met through the provision of energy services (see Table 8). Agreeing on a set of basic human needs for electricity services will facilitate, improve, and enhance the physical availability of electricity access. In addition, it will facilitate the establishment of a minimum electricity threshold, formulated in terms of the quantity and quality of electricity needed to meet these basic needs. Lastly, affordability of electricity for the lowest-income households is crucial to the success of efforts to enhance equality of access to electricity (Bhattacharyya, 2006; Brew-Hammond, 2010; Pachauri, 2011). It is widely recognized that the immediate benefits of rural electrification programs have seldom gone to the poor, who could not afford electricity connections and electricity fees (World Bank, 2008). The capital or upfront costs of connections are often too high for the poor. Even if the poor have free or subsidized access to electricity, this does not mean that electricity is used, if people cannot afford to use electricity. Although per-capita electricity consumption by the poor is fairly low, poor households usually spend a disproportionate share of their household budgets on energy services, compared to middle and upper income households (Leach, 1987; Modi et al., 2005). Household expenditure on energy exceeding a threshold of 10–30% of household income is considered to be a benchmark for energy poverty (Bensch et al., 2010; Fankhauser and Tepic, 2007). Spending more than a certain share of a household budget on energy may deprive the household of other necessities (Barnes et al., 2011). Since people without electricity are mainly poor people in rural areas of developing countries with relatively low incomes, securing affordable minimum amounts of electricity for basic human needs is vital as well. Affordability can be measured by setting a limit on household energy expenditure. Practical Action and GIZ (2011) suggest that expenditure on energy not exceed 10% of total household income. Conclusion As the technology for generating electricity from both fossil fuels and renewable energy has advanced, today billions of people still lack the most basic energy service, access to electricity. The unacceptable fact is that this situation will likely change very little in the next two decades. Electricity is essential for development. For developing countries, however, difficult choices must often be made in meeting many different pressing development needs, such as achieving the MDGs. In 2010, only 68 of 140 developing countries had set targets for improving access to electricity by 2020 or 2030: Brazil (full electrification by 2015),

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37

Level 3 Modern society needs Modern society services for many domestic appliances, increased requirements for cooling and heating (space and water), private transportation (electricity usage is around 2000 kWh per person per year)

Level 2 Productive uses Electricity, modern fuels and other energy services to improve productivity. e.g. - Agriculture: water pumping for irrigation, fertilizer, mechanized tilling. - Commercial: agricultural processing, cottage industry.

Level 1 Basic human needs Electricity for lighting, health, education, communication and community services (50-100 kWh per person per year) Modern fuels and technologies for cooking and heating (50-100 kgoe of modern fuel or improved biomass cook stove Source: Data from AGECC, 2010. Drawn by author. Fig. 9. Incremental level of access to energy services. Source: Data from AGECC (2010). Drawn by author.

the People's Republic of China (99.7% by 2015), South Africa (full electrification by 2012), Bangladesh (full electrification by 2020), Ghana (full electrification by 2020), Nepal (full electrification by 2027), Indonesia (90% electrification by 2020), and the Philippines (90% electrification by 2017) (Legros et al.). The remaining half of developing countries has not undertaken any specific action or strategy to resolve the issue of lack of access to electricity. To address the importance of access to electricity in human development, ensuring access to electricity and a certain minimum amount of electricity to meet basic human needs should be Table 8 Six core categories of basic human needs for energy services. Source: Practical Action (2010, 2012). Energy service

Minimum standard

Lighting Cooking and water heating

300 lumens at household level 1 kg wood fuel or 0.3 kg charcoal or 0.04 kg LPG or 0.2 liters of kerosene or ethanol per person per day, taking less than 30 minutes per household per day to obtain Minimum efficiency of improved wood and charcoal stoves to be 40% greater than a three-stone fire in terms of fuel use Annual mean concentrations of particulate matter (PM2.5) b 10 μg/m3 in households, with interim goals of 15 μg/m3, 25 μg/m3 and 35 μg/m3 Minimum daytime indoor air temperature of 18 ºC Food processors, retailers and householders have facilities to extend life of perishable products by a minimum of 50% over that allowed by ambient storage All health facilities have refrigeration adequate for the blood, vaccine and medicinal needs of local populations Maximum indoor air temperature of 30 ºC People can communicate electronic information beyond the locality in which they live People can access electronic media relevant to their lives and livelihoods Access to energy is sufficient for the start up of any enterprise The proportion of operating costs for energy consumption in energy-efficient enterprises is financially sustainable

Space heating Cooling

Information and communications

Earning a living

considered for inclusion in the framework of the post-2015 UN development agenda. Doing so will enhance political commitment, and influence the political priority of access to electricity for the poor among pressing development needs in developing countries, and further orient the formulation of policies, targets, and strategies, as well as the allocation of funds.

Acknowledgments The author acknowledges the valuable comments and contributions given by the reviewers to improve the quality of this article.

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