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Environmental harassment or technology assessment?
Industrial Marketing 0 Elsevier Scientific
Management, 3 (1974) 189- 192 Publishing Company, Amsterdam
~ Printed
in The Netherlands
REVIEW
Derek Medford, Environmental Harassmellt or Techdogy Assessment.? Amsterdam/ London/New York, Elsevier, 1973, 45 guilders.
Adherents of the British TV series “Doomwatch” know that it portrays scientists on the watch for the more harmful results of their colleagues’ work. They ought to be interested in this discussion of a real world approach. Those who are more professionally involved in technology assessment will welcome this new hard-back to their shelves since it breaks much new ground in reviewing the current state of the art. Paraphrasing a fuller definition in the book, technology assessment is the systematic search for the direct or more remote effects of innovation, quantifying them so far as possible, pointing alternatives, and in all managing more effectively societal goals. None of us can escape our changing environment. Although these notes are written in an old English garden in high summer, over the hedge bulldozers are “redeveloping” part of the landscape, to the east is an urban motorway whose hum challenges the bees, and two V-bombers with fighter escort have just rumbled overhead, leaving their thin dark trail. Derek Medford brings very relevant knowhow to his subject. At one time member of the British Programmes Analysis Unit - concerned with quantitative techniques in determining technology policy - he then became Nuffield Fellow at Oxford and was able to devote time
to studying developments in the United States, and is now Head of Department at the new International Institute for the Management of Technology (I.I.M.T.) in Milan. In some respects this is an unusual book, quite outside the usual run, since it opens with what is almost a journalistic-type review of the present state of technology assessment in the western world, and even contains a total reproduction of a Bill and Act of the U.S. Senate. Suddenly it transmutes into a highly numerate appraisal of quantitative techniques in such matters as benefit-cost analysis, cost-effectiveness. technological forecasting, and ethical intelligence, before moving on to shorter chapters on the relationship of technology assessment with universities, the public sector, industry, and the 1972 U.N. Conference from which emerged the Declaration on the Human Environment. This means that some of the early parts of the book will date quickly, despite references that are unusually recent - as late as Septem ber 1972. These parts include a detailed discussion of the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act and the Office of Technological Assessment. They herald a new state of affairs in the U.S., where government agencies have formally to assess the impact of what they propose, identify adverse effects, specify alternatives, and state what irreversible or irretrievable resource commitments are involved. Conversely, the sections on more quantitative matters will be valuable reference material for a much longer time. On balance, I believe this structuring of the material was justified, although we must hope 189
that the author will later supplement the early review chapters on technological assessment with updating articles. This.journal, Industrial Marketing Management, should be the obvious medium. The succeeding chapters are a practically oriented approach to various types of quantification. Despite an early comment that most of the mathematics in technological assessment generally are no more than school-leaver standard, there are some substantial mathematics at points. It is very welcome to find a variety of real examples in which assumptions and reasons for preferring techniques are made clear. Senior Managers. who on courses show marked favour for actual if hairy examples will appreciate this. As an example, to back Chapter 5 on Benefit-Cost Analysis appears an interesting Appendix in which is presented a whole gamut of cash flow examples with graphical representation and their formulae. Then follows a numerical procedure of direct use. Much the same can be said of Chapter 7 on Technological Forecasting, which handles exploratory and normative techniques and goes well beyond the usual curve-fitting into the discriminative criteria for selecting functions and on to the effect of delay, which is unusual. Ethical intelligence applied to decisionmaking happens to interest this reviewer, so he felt on home ground in Chapter 9. Medford here concludes unequivocally that “if technological assessment is going to be a useful societal tool then we need much better ethical intelligence processes.” Mention of these processes is not confined to this chapter and appear throughout the book at intervals, in points such as: -
technological forecasting alone is no substitute for effective intelligence activity backed by the computer and using modelling. - the personal contact in intelligence is of paramount importance in the social
190
and industrial aspects of new innovation - intelligence may be instrumental in avoiding unrealistic assumptions - it is on occasion more constructive - than intricate analysis - it requires full senior management disclosure of the reasons for assessment. Light touches appear which enliven the text, sometimes at unexpected points to produce the humour of incongruity. There are some remarks on intelligence behaviour which introduce an ingenious conceptual model by certain formulae and demonstrate how, in unethical behaviour, the probability of detection rises fast or expense rockets. This suggests a rationale against such practice quite apart from morality. Again (p. 195) the numerate bachelor is provided with a method of optimising his wooing satisfaction per unit cost, and an Ethical Behaviour Quotient is suggested to complement the Intelligence Quotient. now in poor favour (p. 236). Apart, hopefully, from the suggestion that readers would welcome updating on technological assessment from Medford, in an occasional future article, this reviewer would like to see more of his kind of approach to Mathematics and Statistics for Intelligence. There are a number of areas in which we might encourage the author to stretch himself in a future book - one thinks of shorterrange forecasting, multivariate analysis, aspects of programming for tactical and operational strategy, entropy, wider aspects of mathematical functions, modelling, and so on. Medford remarks that the subconscious impetus behind this book is for the reader alone to judge. This one is prepared merely to welcome the fact that the times produce the men, and that the qualifications and experience of one who is by vocation a scientist have been happily focussed into this
book. Technology assessment did not appear accidentally or by mutation but because it is now a desperately needed societal invention, and nothing mothers invention like necessity. This book, travelling the multi-disciplinary road, should interest many who do not regard themselves as bound to one subject. Apart from mathematicians and others with a strong bent to real applications, there is little doubt that practitioners of marketing research.
technological forecasters, economic analysts. information scientists, corporate planners, finance men and management scientists in general should find this book really stimulating. A word to the publisher. We all realise why the practice of not quoting the price on book covers is extending, but as a purchaser and reader I would like to see it there. F.T. PEARCE
191
Management, 3 (1974) 189- 192 Publishing Company, Amsterdam
~ Printed
in The Netherlands
REVIEW
Derek Medford, Environmental Harassmellt or Techdogy Assessment.? Amsterdam/ London/New York, Elsevier, 1973, 45 guilders.
Adherents of the British TV series “Doomwatch” know that it portrays scientists on the watch for the more harmful results of their colleagues’ work. They ought to be interested in this discussion of a real world approach. Those who are more professionally involved in technology assessment will welcome this new hard-back to their shelves since it breaks much new ground in reviewing the current state of the art. Paraphrasing a fuller definition in the book, technology assessment is the systematic search for the direct or more remote effects of innovation, quantifying them so far as possible, pointing alternatives, and in all managing more effectively societal goals. None of us can escape our changing environment. Although these notes are written in an old English garden in high summer, over the hedge bulldozers are “redeveloping” part of the landscape, to the east is an urban motorway whose hum challenges the bees, and two V-bombers with fighter escort have just rumbled overhead, leaving their thin dark trail. Derek Medford brings very relevant knowhow to his subject. At one time member of the British Programmes Analysis Unit - concerned with quantitative techniques in determining technology policy - he then became Nuffield Fellow at Oxford and was able to devote time
to studying developments in the United States, and is now Head of Department at the new International Institute for the Management of Technology (I.I.M.T.) in Milan. In some respects this is an unusual book, quite outside the usual run, since it opens with what is almost a journalistic-type review of the present state of technology assessment in the western world, and even contains a total reproduction of a Bill and Act of the U.S. Senate. Suddenly it transmutes into a highly numerate appraisal of quantitative techniques in such matters as benefit-cost analysis, cost-effectiveness. technological forecasting, and ethical intelligence, before moving on to shorter chapters on the relationship of technology assessment with universities, the public sector, industry, and the 1972 U.N. Conference from which emerged the Declaration on the Human Environment. This means that some of the early parts of the book will date quickly, despite references that are unusually recent - as late as Septem ber 1972. These parts include a detailed discussion of the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act and the Office of Technological Assessment. They herald a new state of affairs in the U.S., where government agencies have formally to assess the impact of what they propose, identify adverse effects, specify alternatives, and state what irreversible or irretrievable resource commitments are involved. Conversely, the sections on more quantitative matters will be valuable reference material for a much longer time. On balance, I believe this structuring of the material was justified, although we must hope 189
that the author will later supplement the early review chapters on technological assessment with updating articles. This.journal, Industrial Marketing Management, should be the obvious medium. The succeeding chapters are a practically oriented approach to various types of quantification. Despite an early comment that most of the mathematics in technological assessment generally are no more than school-leaver standard, there are some substantial mathematics at points. It is very welcome to find a variety of real examples in which assumptions and reasons for preferring techniques are made clear. Senior Managers. who on courses show marked favour for actual if hairy examples will appreciate this. As an example, to back Chapter 5 on Benefit-Cost Analysis appears an interesting Appendix in which is presented a whole gamut of cash flow examples with graphical representation and their formulae. Then follows a numerical procedure of direct use. Much the same can be said of Chapter 7 on Technological Forecasting, which handles exploratory and normative techniques and goes well beyond the usual curve-fitting into the discriminative criteria for selecting functions and on to the effect of delay, which is unusual. Ethical intelligence applied to decisionmaking happens to interest this reviewer, so he felt on home ground in Chapter 9. Medford here concludes unequivocally that “if technological assessment is going to be a useful societal tool then we need much better ethical intelligence processes.” Mention of these processes is not confined to this chapter and appear throughout the book at intervals, in points such as: -
technological forecasting alone is no substitute for effective intelligence activity backed by the computer and using modelling. - the personal contact in intelligence is of paramount importance in the social
190
and industrial aspects of new innovation - intelligence may be instrumental in avoiding unrealistic assumptions - it is on occasion more constructive - than intricate analysis - it requires full senior management disclosure of the reasons for assessment. Light touches appear which enliven the text, sometimes at unexpected points to produce the humour of incongruity. There are some remarks on intelligence behaviour which introduce an ingenious conceptual model by certain formulae and demonstrate how, in unethical behaviour, the probability of detection rises fast or expense rockets. This suggests a rationale against such practice quite apart from morality. Again (p. 195) the numerate bachelor is provided with a method of optimising his wooing satisfaction per unit cost, and an Ethical Behaviour Quotient is suggested to complement the Intelligence Quotient. now in poor favour (p. 236). Apart, hopefully, from the suggestion that readers would welcome updating on technological assessment from Medford, in an occasional future article, this reviewer would like to see more of his kind of approach to Mathematics and Statistics for Intelligence. There are a number of areas in which we might encourage the author to stretch himself in a future book - one thinks of shorterrange forecasting, multivariate analysis, aspects of programming for tactical and operational strategy, entropy, wider aspects of mathematical functions, modelling, and so on. Medford remarks that the subconscious impetus behind this book is for the reader alone to judge. This one is prepared merely to welcome the fact that the times produce the men, and that the qualifications and experience of one who is by vocation a scientist have been happily focussed into this
book. Technology assessment did not appear accidentally or by mutation but because it is now a desperately needed societal invention, and nothing mothers invention like necessity. This book, travelling the multi-disciplinary road, should interest many who do not regard themselves as bound to one subject. Apart from mathematicians and others with a strong bent to real applications, there is little doubt that practitioners of marketing research.
technological forecasters, economic analysts. information scientists, corporate planners, finance men and management scientists in general should find this book really stimulating. A word to the publisher. We all realise why the practice of not quoting the price on book covers is extending, but as a purchaser and reader I would like to see it there. F.T. PEARCE
191