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Farming systems of Pakistan
Conference
reportslBook
reviews
in their efforts to inform policy. Both also noted that detailed micro-level studies continue to be the most effective basis for policy research. The symposium also sharpened the focus on research priorities by highlighting the distinctions between project and policy assistance, relief and development initiatives, and the limited success of technology development. Professor Lipton provided an apt
concluding comment for the symposium. If the capacity of individuals to respond optimally to constraints and opportunities is to serve as the basis for increasing aggregate food production and reducing SSA’s poverty and vulnerability, then good policy is essential. Garry Christensen Food Studies Group University of Oxford, UK
Book reviews Achieving future productivitv growth FARMING SYSTEMS OF PAKISTAN Diagnosing Research
Priorities for Agricultural
edited by Derek Byerlee and Tariq Hussin Vanguard Books, Lahore, x+327 pp, Rs 395.00
1992,
The book under review is a pioneering piece of work in many respects. It represents a first attempt at an indepth analysis of Pakistan’s major farming systems. It is uniquely placed in terms of a clear exposition of the problems and constraints of Pakistan’s agriculture and employs scientifically accepted analytical techniques to reiterate the importance of such problems. Drawing on its main conclusions, it carefully delineates the agenda of future research in Pakistan. Among the most novel recommendations in this context is its insistence that, instead of relying on a top-down research strategy, biological research in Pakistan must be geared towards the resolution of farmers’ problems in the various farming systems. The book consists of 14 chapters written by authors of diverse specializations. The first two chapters are of an introductory nature, spelling out respectively the importance of farming systems research and details of farming systems in Pakistan, and the last
448
chapter offers a summary of the conclusions and discusses their implications for farming systems research. The remaining 11 chapters present empirical information on the farming systems of Sindh, Punjab, North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Northern areas. Five of these studies examine the farming systems of the irrigated lowland plains, two deal with lowland rainfed tracts, and four are centred on the study of mountain agriculture. One study in each of the three major ecological zones was concerned with the diffusion of various kinds of technologies, such as biological, chemical and mechanical, and their subsequent effects on cropping patterns and yields. On the basis of their analysis the authors of these studies argue that biochemical technology has become widespread in most of the farming systems and that tubewells in barani areas and tractors and tubewells in the mountain farming systems have been used only infrequently. What is more important to note is the fact that biochemical technology has raised yields tremendously and can step up intensive land cultivation by increasing the turnaround time between the Kharif and Rabi crops.
Introduction of technology In the remaining eight chapters the relative emphasis shifts to problems associated with the introduction of
new technologies. These chapters form the crux of the book and provide first-hand empirical information on each of the eight farming systems under study. The novelty of these chapters is that each gives an apt description of the natural endowment of the system under study in terms of its climatic conditions, average farm size, farming practices in vogue and productive potential of soils before going into economic analysis. Many conclusions follow from the regression analysis of yields and cropping intensities. Although the technologies of the past were instrumental in raising cropping intensities and crop yields, further increases were unlikely to occur due to conflicts in the cropping pattern in the irrigated areas and significant livestock-crop interactions in the rainfed and mountain systems. These conflicts and interactions result in either low yields due to delayed planting of wheat and intercropping of fodder with food crops or in fallowing of land. In the irrigated plains, yield may also be limited because of the persistence of weeds that have accompanied intensive land cultivation. In four of the eight studies, wheat yields were found insensitive to phosphorus applications despite the high levels of recommended doses. In short, the book argues that to a large extent the yield potential of high-yielding varieties, irrigation supplies and fertilizer has already been exploited over the last two decades and the prospects for future productivity increases seem dismal. Given this limitation, productivity increases in agriculture could only come from a more efficient use of inputs. This in turn would require greater emphasis on practices such as tillage methods, weed and pest control, time and method of application of fertilizers, fertilizer nutrient balances and efficient use of irrigation water at the farm level. Much of this increase in efficiency can only be realized by more location-specific crop management research with a strong problemsolving orientation. In view of the limitations of adaptive research in the rainfed and mountain systems because of the heterogeneity of conditions, the best strategy to raise productivity
FOOD POLICY October
1993
Book reviews would be to look for widely appropriate system interventions, such as deep tillage methods for moisture conservation, a new fodder crop to overcome fodder constraints and a cash crop suited to local conditions.
Reservations The soundness of the farming systems research described, and hence of the book, can hardly be doubted. However, no comprehensive policy can ever be made without a complete understanding of the issues involved. As remarked in the foreword, the book does not provide a comprehensive analysis of Pakistan’s complex and diverse farming systems, and deficiencies remain. The following discussion may be helpful in putting them on record. First, diagnostic surveys have served as the basis of analysis of the book, but the level of accuracy of the collected information is unclear. If we compare survey data reported in various chapters of the book, especially those for yields, with official district data, it turns out that the survey reported yields of wheat, rice and maize at least double those of the corresponding official estimates. In spite of the warning in the book that survey data may not be representative of the districts concerned, the question remains: can these large differences be explained by the unrepresentativeness of the survey data? On the basis of information in Chapter 5, tremendous increases in Basmati rice yields can be predicted, yet official data reflect stagnating, if not falling, yields of Basmati rice in the Punjab since 1987. Second, although regression analysis is applied to explain the variability of yields throughout the book, there seems to be little agreement on a standard set of variables explaining the yields. While the contributions of labour, relative profitability of crops and irrigation water to cropping intensities and yields are well known, there is no corresponding emphasis on their inclusion as independent variables. While there is always a long list of included variables, their number and definitions vary from chapter to chapter. There is extensive use of dummies
FOOD POLICY
October
1993
for various real variables. Despite all this, the explanatory power of the fitted regressions rarely exceeds 50% and is usually in the neighbourhood of 20%. Many of the estimated equations, especially those with unexpected signs and values, are stated without appropriate explanations. Given this situation, a lot more than the expectations of both the authors and the editors seems to be at stake. Finally, the book maintains that future productivity increases in Pakistan must come exclusively from increased input efficiencies, and that the sole means of stepping up input efficiencies is through location-specific crop management research and breeding of short-duration varieties. This seems to exaggerate the contribution of breeding research and underestimate the role of other factors. I do not think that short-duration varieties in Pakistan could be evolved as frequently as the book seems to assume. By contrast, other factors could be readily tapped. For example, commodity prices in Pakistan have been only 50% of world prices. Many studies in Pakistan have argued that a simple elimination of price distortions could lead to a 3@40% increase in agricultural output. Although rising input use may be hampered by the elimination of input
subsidies, it remains a potential future source of productivity gains in Pakistan’s agriculture, especially as the current subsidy levels on major inputs do not exceed 510%. Given the low levels of fertilizer use in Pakistan relative to other countries, there is considerable scope for expansion in its use. Against worldwide evidence of a positive response of grain yields to phosphorus, the conclusion that wheat yields are unresponsive to this nutrient seems to be the result of data errors and faulty manipulation of yield functions. If labour has become increasingly scarce, as is maintained in the book, greatly expanded use of tractors and tractor-related equipment seems to be inevitable for the timely planting of crops. Turnaround problems can also be overcome by adoption of sunflower and spring maize instead of late-sown wheat, or with little more hard work, provided prices are remunerative. Given this situation, it should be abundantly clear that a multifaceted approach, rather than relying on breeding alone, is the way to achieve future productivity increases.
Pakistan
M. Ghaffar Chauchy lnstitute of Development Economics lslamabad
Useful synopsis of European research
reportslBook
reviews
in their efforts to inform policy. Both also noted that detailed micro-level studies continue to be the most effective basis for policy research. The symposium also sharpened the focus on research priorities by highlighting the distinctions between project and policy assistance, relief and development initiatives, and the limited success of technology development. Professor Lipton provided an apt
concluding comment for the symposium. If the capacity of individuals to respond optimally to constraints and opportunities is to serve as the basis for increasing aggregate food production and reducing SSA’s poverty and vulnerability, then good policy is essential. Garry Christensen Food Studies Group University of Oxford, UK
Book reviews Achieving future productivitv growth FARMING SYSTEMS OF PAKISTAN Diagnosing Research
Priorities for Agricultural
edited by Derek Byerlee and Tariq Hussin Vanguard Books, Lahore, x+327 pp, Rs 395.00
1992,
The book under review is a pioneering piece of work in many respects. It represents a first attempt at an indepth analysis of Pakistan’s major farming systems. It is uniquely placed in terms of a clear exposition of the problems and constraints of Pakistan’s agriculture and employs scientifically accepted analytical techniques to reiterate the importance of such problems. Drawing on its main conclusions, it carefully delineates the agenda of future research in Pakistan. Among the most novel recommendations in this context is its insistence that, instead of relying on a top-down research strategy, biological research in Pakistan must be geared towards the resolution of farmers’ problems in the various farming systems. The book consists of 14 chapters written by authors of diverse specializations. The first two chapters are of an introductory nature, spelling out respectively the importance of farming systems research and details of farming systems in Pakistan, and the last
448
chapter offers a summary of the conclusions and discusses their implications for farming systems research. The remaining 11 chapters present empirical information on the farming systems of Sindh, Punjab, North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Northern areas. Five of these studies examine the farming systems of the irrigated lowland plains, two deal with lowland rainfed tracts, and four are centred on the study of mountain agriculture. One study in each of the three major ecological zones was concerned with the diffusion of various kinds of technologies, such as biological, chemical and mechanical, and their subsequent effects on cropping patterns and yields. On the basis of their analysis the authors of these studies argue that biochemical technology has become widespread in most of the farming systems and that tubewells in barani areas and tractors and tubewells in the mountain farming systems have been used only infrequently. What is more important to note is the fact that biochemical technology has raised yields tremendously and can step up intensive land cultivation by increasing the turnaround time between the Kharif and Rabi crops.
Introduction of technology In the remaining eight chapters the relative emphasis shifts to problems associated with the introduction of
new technologies. These chapters form the crux of the book and provide first-hand empirical information on each of the eight farming systems under study. The novelty of these chapters is that each gives an apt description of the natural endowment of the system under study in terms of its climatic conditions, average farm size, farming practices in vogue and productive potential of soils before going into economic analysis. Many conclusions follow from the regression analysis of yields and cropping intensities. Although the technologies of the past were instrumental in raising cropping intensities and crop yields, further increases were unlikely to occur due to conflicts in the cropping pattern in the irrigated areas and significant livestock-crop interactions in the rainfed and mountain systems. These conflicts and interactions result in either low yields due to delayed planting of wheat and intercropping of fodder with food crops or in fallowing of land. In the irrigated plains, yield may also be limited because of the persistence of weeds that have accompanied intensive land cultivation. In four of the eight studies, wheat yields were found insensitive to phosphorus applications despite the high levels of recommended doses. In short, the book argues that to a large extent the yield potential of high-yielding varieties, irrigation supplies and fertilizer has already been exploited over the last two decades and the prospects for future productivity increases seem dismal. Given this limitation, productivity increases in agriculture could only come from a more efficient use of inputs. This in turn would require greater emphasis on practices such as tillage methods, weed and pest control, time and method of application of fertilizers, fertilizer nutrient balances and efficient use of irrigation water at the farm level. Much of this increase in efficiency can only be realized by more location-specific crop management research with a strong problemsolving orientation. In view of the limitations of adaptive research in the rainfed and mountain systems because of the heterogeneity of conditions, the best strategy to raise productivity
FOOD POLICY October
1993
Book reviews would be to look for widely appropriate system interventions, such as deep tillage methods for moisture conservation, a new fodder crop to overcome fodder constraints and a cash crop suited to local conditions.
Reservations The soundness of the farming systems research described, and hence of the book, can hardly be doubted. However, no comprehensive policy can ever be made without a complete understanding of the issues involved. As remarked in the foreword, the book does not provide a comprehensive analysis of Pakistan’s complex and diverse farming systems, and deficiencies remain. The following discussion may be helpful in putting them on record. First, diagnostic surveys have served as the basis of analysis of the book, but the level of accuracy of the collected information is unclear. If we compare survey data reported in various chapters of the book, especially those for yields, with official district data, it turns out that the survey reported yields of wheat, rice and maize at least double those of the corresponding official estimates. In spite of the warning in the book that survey data may not be representative of the districts concerned, the question remains: can these large differences be explained by the unrepresentativeness of the survey data? On the basis of information in Chapter 5, tremendous increases in Basmati rice yields can be predicted, yet official data reflect stagnating, if not falling, yields of Basmati rice in the Punjab since 1987. Second, although regression analysis is applied to explain the variability of yields throughout the book, there seems to be little agreement on a standard set of variables explaining the yields. While the contributions of labour, relative profitability of crops and irrigation water to cropping intensities and yields are well known, there is no corresponding emphasis on their inclusion as independent variables. While there is always a long list of included variables, their number and definitions vary from chapter to chapter. There is extensive use of dummies
FOOD POLICY
October
1993
for various real variables. Despite all this, the explanatory power of the fitted regressions rarely exceeds 50% and is usually in the neighbourhood of 20%. Many of the estimated equations, especially those with unexpected signs and values, are stated without appropriate explanations. Given this situation, a lot more than the expectations of both the authors and the editors seems to be at stake. Finally, the book maintains that future productivity increases in Pakistan must come exclusively from increased input efficiencies, and that the sole means of stepping up input efficiencies is through location-specific crop management research and breeding of short-duration varieties. This seems to exaggerate the contribution of breeding research and underestimate the role of other factors. I do not think that short-duration varieties in Pakistan could be evolved as frequently as the book seems to assume. By contrast, other factors could be readily tapped. For example, commodity prices in Pakistan have been only 50% of world prices. Many studies in Pakistan have argued that a simple elimination of price distortions could lead to a 3@40% increase in agricultural output. Although rising input use may be hampered by the elimination of input
subsidies, it remains a potential future source of productivity gains in Pakistan’s agriculture, especially as the current subsidy levels on major inputs do not exceed 510%. Given the low levels of fertilizer use in Pakistan relative to other countries, there is considerable scope for expansion in its use. Against worldwide evidence of a positive response of grain yields to phosphorus, the conclusion that wheat yields are unresponsive to this nutrient seems to be the result of data errors and faulty manipulation of yield functions. If labour has become increasingly scarce, as is maintained in the book, greatly expanded use of tractors and tractor-related equipment seems to be inevitable for the timely planting of crops. Turnaround problems can also be overcome by adoption of sunflower and spring maize instead of late-sown wheat, or with little more hard work, provided prices are remunerative. Given this situation, it should be abundantly clear that a multifaceted approach, rather than relying on breeding alone, is the way to achieve future productivity increases.
Pakistan
M. Ghaffar Chauchy lnstitute of Development Economics lslamabad
Useful synopsis of European research