Financial Globalization and Capital Flows Volatility Effects on Economic Growth

Financial Globalization and Capital Flows Volatility Effects on Economic Growth

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Procedia Economics and Finance 15 (2014) 350 – 356 (PHUJLQJ0DUNHWV4XHULHVLQ)LQDQFHDQG%...

244KB Sizes 0 Downloads 89 Views

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect Procedia Economics and Finance 15 (2014) 350 – 356

(PHUJLQJ0DUNHWV4XHULHVLQ)LQDQFHDQG%XVLQHVV

)LQDQFLDOJOREDOL]DWLRQDQGFDSLWDOIORZVYRODWLOLW\HIIHFWVRQ HFRQRPLFJURZWK /HQXĠD&DUSD  a

”Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University, Carol I Boulevard no.22, Iaúi, 700505, Romania



$EVWUDFW

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© 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license ‹3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU/WG6HOHFWLRQDQGRUSHHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RI(PHUJLQJ (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). 0DUNHWV4XHULHVLQ)LQDQFHDQG%XVLQHVVORFDORUJDQL]DWLRQ Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the Emerging Markets Queries in Finance and Business local organization

 Keywords:ILQDQFLDOJOREDOL]DWLRQFDSLWDOIORZVHFRQRPLFJURZWK&((&V

,QWURGXFWLRQ 7KHJURZWKRIZRUOGZLGHHFRQRP\KDVEHHQVWURQJO\HQKDQFHGE\WKHILQDQFLDOJOREDOL]DWLRQGXHLWVPDMRU H[WHUQDOLWLHV ERWK LQ GHYHORSLQJ DQG DGYDQFHG FRXQWULHV )RFXVLQJ RQ WKH PDLQ FKDQQHOV WKURXJK ZKLFK WKH LPSOLFDWLRQV DUH WUDQVPLWWHG RQ WKH HFRQRP\ UHVHDUFKHV LQ WKLV ILHOG KDYH VKRZQ LQWHQVLYH GHEDWHV RQ WKH HIIHFWVRIILQDQFLDOJOREDOL]DWLRQ ,QWKLVIUDPHZRUNFRPPHUFLDODQGILQDQFLDOFDSLWDOIORZVKDYHUHFRUGHGVWURQJLQFUHDVHVLQWKHLUYROXPH HVSHFLDOO\LQWKHGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVZKLFKKDYHEHFRPHWKHPDLQDWWUDFWLRQRIIRUHLJQLQYHVWRUV.DPLQVNL KDVSURYLGHGDWUDGLWLRQDOSHUVSHFWLYHRQWKHILQDQFLDOJOREDOL]DWLRQDSSUHFLDWLQJWKDWZRUOGZLGHFDSLWDO

&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HO E-mail address: OHQXW]DBFDUS#\DKRRFRP 

2212-5671 © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the Emerging Markets Queries in Finance and Business local organization doi:10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00521-8

Lenuţa Carp / Procedia Economics and Finance 15 (2014) 350 – 356

351

PDUNHWV HQKDQFHV JURZWK DQG SURGXFWLYLW\ HVSHFLDOO\ GXH FDSLWDO IORZV DGYDQWDJHV WR PRYH WR WKH PRVW DWWUDFWLYHGHVWLQDWLRQV 'XULQJ  ±  ERWK IRUHLJQ GLUHFW LQYHVWPHQWV DQG SRUWIROLR HTXLW\ IORZV KDYH NQRZQ D VKDUS LQFUHDVH VWLPXODWHG E\ WKH FKDQJHV LQ WKHPDFURHFRQRPLF HQYLURQPHQW RI WKHEHQHILFLDU\ FRXQWULHVDQG DV D FRQVHTXHQFH RI WKH IUHH PRELOLW\ RI FDSLWDO IORZV 7KH SHDN RI WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO FDSLWDO IORZV LQ WKH JOREDO HFRQRP\ ZDV UHDFKHG LQ  DQG DQWLFLSDWHG WKH VWULNH RI WKH HFRQRPLF DQG ILQDQFLDO FULVLV )LQDQFLDO JOREDOL]DWLRQKDVVLPXODWHGWKHHOLPLQDWLRQRIWKHEDUULHUVEHWZHHQWKHFRXQWULHVDQGIUHHPRYHPHQWVRIKXPDQ DQG ILQDQFLDO FDSLWDO EXW WKURXJK WKH WUDGH DQG FUHGLW FKDQQHOV KDV HDVHG WKH H[SDQVLRQ RI WKH ZRUOGZLGH LPEDODQFH 5LVN DQG XQFHUWDLQW\ GRPLQDWHG WKH LQYHVWRUV¶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¶YRODWLOLW\WKHWKLUG RQH LV GHGLFDWHG WR D EULHI SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH GHWHUPLQDQWV RI IRUHLJQ IORZV¶ YRODWLOLW\ PHDQZKLOH WKH ODWWHU SUHVHQWVWKHG\QDPLFIRUHLJQIORZVYRODWLOLW\DQGHFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGWKHFRQFOXVLRQVRIWKHSDSHU )LQDQFLDOJOREDOL]DWLRQDQGFDSLWDOIORZVYRODWLOLW\RQILQDQFLDOPDUNHWV±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¶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¶ UHYHUVDO $LWNHQ  7KH FKDQJLQJ IHDWXUHV RI WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO ILQDQFLDO PDUNHWV KDYH LQFUHDVHG WKH KHUG EHKDYLRXU RI IRUHLJQ LQYHVWRUV ZKR KDYH PDGH PDVVLYH ZLWKGUDZDO RI WKHLU LQYHVWPHQWV XQGHUWKHLQIOXHQFHRIHFRQRPLFLPEDODQFHVDQGWXUEXOHQFHHVSHFLDOO\GXHWRWKHIDFWWKDWJOREDOPDUNHWVDUH DIIHFWHGE\LPSHUIHFWLQIRUPDWLRQDQGLQVWDELOLW\

352

Lenuţa Carp / Procedia Economics and Finance 15 (2014) 350 – 356

5HFHQWO\ZHUHGHYHORSHGDQLQFUHDVHGQXPEHURIDQDO\VLVRQWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHFDSLWDOFRQWUROVWU\LQJWR UHYHDOWKHLUUROHDPRQJWKHPDFURHFRQRPLFSROLFLHVHVSHFLDOO\LQWKHFDVHRIHPHUJLQJPDUNHWV2VWU\ &KDPRQ 7KH OLWHUDWXUH VWXG\LQJ WKH FRQWDJLRQ SKHQRPHQRQ DV D FRQVHTXHQFH RI WKH SRUWIROLR UHDOORFDWLRQ LV YDVW 3DYORYD DQG 5LJRERQ  LPSOHPHQWHG DQG GHYHORSHG D JHQHUDO HTXLOLEULXP PRGHO LQ ZKLFK SRUWIROLR FRQVWUDLQWV JHQHUDWH ZHDOWK WUDQVIHUV EHWZHHQ WKH ³SHULSKHU\ FRXQWULHV´ DQG WKH FHQWUH LQFUHDVLQJ WKH FR PRYHPHQWVRIVWRFNSULFHVDFURVVWKHSHULSKHU\,Q*HORVIRFXVHGRQWKHYRODWLOLW\RIERWKIORZVLQDQG RXW RI IXQGV VKRZLQJ WKDW WKH\ LQFUHDVHG VKDUSO\ DERXW  ò \HDUV EHIRUH WKH /HKPDQ FROODSVH 7KH VXGGHQ FROODSVHRIIRUHLJQFDSLWDOIORZVDQGWKHLUIORZIURPHPHUJLQJPDUNHWVWRDGYDQFHGHFRQRPLHVVWDUWLQJ IROORZHGE\WKHLUVORZUHFRYHU\LQDQGKDYHDPSOLILHGWKHWHQVLRQRQWKHQDWLRQDOHFRQRPLHVDQG ILQDQFLDO PDUNHWV IURP PDQ\ HPHUJLQJ HFRQRPLHV 7KH EHKDYLRU RI IRUHLJQ FDSLWDO IORZV GXULQJ HFRQRPLF FULVLV KDV HQKDQFHG HFRQRPLVWV¶ LQWHUHVW WR VWXG\ WKH GULYHUV RI FDSLWDO IORZV F\FOHV VXGGHQ VWRSV UHYHUVDOV VXUJHV DQG UHWUHQFKPHQWV  DQG WKHLU PDMRU LPSOLFDWLRQV )RUEHV DQG :DUQRFN  $L]HQPDQ DQG 6XVKNR )UDW]VFKHU 'HWHUPLQDQWVDQGVRXUFHVRIFDSLWDOIORZVYRODWLOLW\GXULQJFULVHV &DSLWDOIORZVYRODWLOLW\LVDPDMRULVVXHIRUDOOWKHHFRQRPLHVERWKGHYHORSHGDQGHPHUJLQJHFRQRPLHVDQG KDV EHQHILW RI LQFUHDVHG DWWHQWLRQ IURP WKH HFRQRPLVWV LQ WKHLU DWWHPSW WR GHWHUPLQH  LWV¶ LPSDFW 7KH HFRQRPHWULF DQDO\VLV FDUULHG RXWSUHYLRXVO\ E\ %URWRKDV FRQFHQWUDWHG RQ DSDQHO RI VHOHFWHG FRXQWULHV IURPWKHHPHUJLQJPDUNHWVLGHQWLI\LQJWKHUHDVRQVRIKLJKHUFDSLWDOIORZVYRODWLOLW\,Q1HXPDQQFDUULHG RXW D PRGHO WR VWXG\ WKH LPSDFW RI WKHILQDQFLDO OLEHUDOL]DWLRQRQ FDSLWDO IORZV¶ YRODWLOLW\ DSSUHFLDWHG E\ WKH VWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQRIFDSLWDOIORZVRQ*'3ZLWKLQDILYH±\HDUUROOLQJZLQGRZIRU)',SRUWIROLRIORZVDQG RWKHUGHEWIORZV7KHILQGLQJVRIWKHLUSDSHUHPSKDVL]HWKDWILQDQFLDOLQWHJUDWLRQLQWRJOREDOPDUNHWVWHQGVWR LQFUHDVH WKH YRODWLOLW\ RI )', LQ HPHUJLQJ HFRQRPLHV 5HFHQWO\ ,0)  KDV KLJKOLJKWHG WKH QHJDWLYH FRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQILQDQFLDORSHQQHVVLQVWLWXWLRQDOTXDOLW\ZLWKWKHYRODWLOLW\RIILQDQFLDOFDSLWDOLQIORZV %DVHGRQWKHUHOHYDQWOLWHUDWXUHRQWKHWRSLFWKHPDLQGHWHUPLQDQWVRIFDSLWDOIORZV¶YRODWLOLW\DUHSURYLGHG LQWKHWDEOHEHORZ 7DEOH9RODWLOLW\GHWHUPLQDQWVRIIRUHLJQFDSLWDOIORZV 7\SHRIGHWHUPLQDQWV

9DULDEOHV

'RPHVWLFÆPDFURHFRQRPLF

 

'RPHVWLFÆILQDQFLDO

GRPHVWLFEDQNLQJV\VWHP HTXLW\PDUNHWV

*OREDOIDFWRUV

JOREDO*'3JURZWKUDWHDQGOLTXLGLW\

/HJDOLQVWLWXWLRQDODQGJHRSROLWLFDO

PHDQYDOXHRIWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRXQWU\ULVNJXLGHIRUFRUUXSWLRQ ODZ RUGHU DQG EXUHDXFUDF\ TXDOLW\ DQG RWKHU GXPP\ YDULDEOHV FDSWXULQJ WKH OHJDO V\VWHP¶V RULJLQ

WKHOHYHORI*'3SHUFDSLWDDQGUDWHVRIJURZWK LQIODWLRQDQGSXEOLFGHILFLWVWKHYROXPHRIWKHUHVHUYHV

6RXUFH%URWRRU,0)RU1HXPDQQ3HQODQG7DQNX

7KH PDFURHFRQRPLF YDULDEOHV ± *'3 SHU FDSLWD DQG WKH UDWHV RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK SURYLGH D JOREDO SHUVSHFWLYH RQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW GHJUHH RI WKH QDWLRQDO HFRQRP\ DQG WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQWDQGFDSLWDOIORZV¶YRODWLOLW\LVH[SHFWHGWREHQRQOLQHDU7KHUDWHRILQIODWLRQDQGSXEOLFGHILFLWV DUHJHQHUDOO\XVHGWRUHIOHFWWKHTXDOLW\RIWKHPDFURHFRQRPLFSROLFLHVZHZRXOGH[SHFWWKDWFDSLWDOIORZVWREH PRUHYRODWLOHLQFRXQWULHVZKLFKUHFRUGKLJKHUUDWHVRILQIODWLRQDQGSXEOLFGHILFLWV7KHORZYROXPHRIUHVHUYHV PRVW RI WKH WLPHV HPSKDVL]H DQ LQFUHDVHG WHQGHQF\ IRU WKRVH FRXQWULHV WR EH DIIHFWHG E\ OLTXLGLW\ FULVHV DQG GLVSOD\PRUHYRODWLOLW\

Lenuţa Carp / Procedia Economics and Finance 15 (2014) 350 – 356

353

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±  ZHUH FRQVWLWXWHG LQ WKH QDWLRQDO PDFURHFRQRPLF HQYLURQPHQW WKH ILQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV SROLFLHV DQG UHJXODWLRQV WKH\ KDYH LPSOHPHQWHGWRHQVXUHWKHQDWLRQDOVWDELOLW\ 7KH SDSHUV VWXG\LQJ WKH GHWHUPLQDQWV RI FDSLWDO IORZV YRODWLOLW\ LQ HPHUJLQJ DQG GHYHORSHG PDUNHWV DUH FRQWLQXRXVO\JURZLQJVRPHRIWKHPIRFXVLQJRQWKHLQWHUQDOIDFWRUV SHUFDSLWDLQFRPHODERXUFRVWWUDGHDQG ILQDQFLDORSHQQHVV DVPDLQIHDWXUHVRIWKHHFRQRP\WRDWWUDFW)',,WR-RQJZDQLFK7HUDGD±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± WHUP SRUWIROLR LQ $VLD WKH GURS ZDV PRUH LPSRUWDQW GHFOLQLQJ IURP DQ LQIORZ RI  ELOOLRQ 86' LQ  WR DQ RXWIORZRIELOOLRQ86'LQ,Q/DWLQ$PHULFDVKRUW±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¶V YRODWLOLW\ DQG WR VXVWDLQ WKH UHFRYHU\ RI WKH HFRQRP\SROLF\PDNHUVKDYHFRQFHQWUDWHGRQLGHQWLI\LQJWKHDSSURSULDWHPHDVXUHVWRVWLPXODWHIRUHLJQIORZV PRYHPHQWVDQGWKHLULPSDFWRQWKHHFRQRPLFJURZWKRIWKHEHQHILFLDU\FRXQWU\

354

Lenuţa Carp / Procedia Economics and Finance 15 (2014) 350 – 356

7DEOH0HDVXUHVWRLQFUHDVHWKHSRVLWLYHLPSDFWRIIRUHLJQFDSLWDOVPRYHPHQWVRQHFRQRPLFJURZWK 0HDVXUH

,PSDFW

,QFUHDVHGFRRSHUDWLRQEHWZHHQ HFRQRPLHVWKURXJKIRUHLJQFDSLWDO IORZV

Ͳ Ͳ

6WUHQJWKHQLQJPDFURSUXGHQWLDO UHJXODWLRQ

Ͳ Ͳ

6XUJHVLQWKHFDSLWDOIORZVHDVHWKHWUDQVPLVVLRQRIWKHV\VWHPLFULVNV $GHTXDWH PDFURHFRQRPLF SROLFLHV FDUULHG RXW XVLQJ WKH DSSURSULDWH PRQHWDU\ WUDQVPLVVLRQ FKDQQHOVSOD\DNH\UROHLQDOOHYLDWLQJFDSLWDOIORZSURF\FOLFDOO\DQGUHGXFHWKHSROLF\VLGH HIIHFWV

%HWWHULQWHUQDWLRQDOHFRQRPLFDQG ILQDQFLDOFRRSHUDWLRQ

Ͳ

)LQDQFLDOJOREDOL]DWLRQKDVEHHQDPDMRUVXSSRUWIRUVWUHQJWKHQLQJLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRRSHUDWLRQ DQGIRUDFKLHYLQJIDYRUDEOHUHVXOWV $Q LQGLYLGXDO FRXQWU\ FDQ KDYH GLIILFXOWLHV LQ DGRSWLQJ DQG IROORZLQJ LWV RZQ SROLFLHV LJQRULQJWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOSROLF\FRRUGLQDWLRQDVVKHFDQGHHSO\IDOOLQWRDSULVRQHUGLOHPPD WUDS

Ͳ

(FRQRPLF LQWHJUDWLRQ DQG PDFURHFRQRPLF VWDELOLW\ HQKDQFH WKH LQWHUGHSHQGHQFLHV EHWZHHQ HFRQRPLHV 6RXQGPDFURHFRQRPLFSROLFLHVVWLPXODWHWKHGHFUHDVHRIHFRQRPLHVYXOQHUDELOLWLHV

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± WHUP LQYHVWPHQWV ZKLFK FUHDWH GHEW 0XWXDO IXQGV KDYH NQRZQ D VSHFWDFXODU LQFUHDVH XQGHU WKH LQIOXHQFH RI ILQDQFLDO JOREDOL]DWLRQ 2YHU WKH SHULRG  ±  WKH YDOXH RI JURVV SRUWIROLR LQIORZV PXOWLSOLHG WKUHH WLPHVIURPPLOOLRQ86'LQWRPLOOLRQ86'LQDQLPSRUWDQWVKDUHRIWKHVHLQIORZVEHLQJ DWWUDFWHG E\ HPHUJLQJ HFRQRPLHV $FFRUGLQJ WR ,0)  SRUWIROLR IORZV ZHUH DOPRVW   RI WRWDO JURVV LQIORZVLQWRHPHUJLQJPDUNHWVLQWKHILUVWKDOIRI 60.00 Bulgaria

50.00

CzechRepublic 40.00

Hungary

30.00

Japan

20.00

Moldova

10.00

Poland Romania

Ͳ20.00

)LJ'\QDPLFRIIRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQWVRYHUWKHSHULRG±

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

Ͳ10.00

2000

0.00

SlovakRepublic Slovenia



355

Lenuţa Carp / Procedia Economics and Finance 15 (2014) 350 – 356

6RXUFHPDGHE\DXWKRUEDVHGRQGDWDIURPKWWSGDWDZRUOGEDQNRUJ

7KH JOREDO HFRQRPLF LPEDODQFHV WXUEXOHQFH DQG WKH JOREDOL]DWLRQ SKHQRPHQRQ PD\ IDFLOLWDWH WKH WUDQVPLVVLRQ RI WKH LQVWDELOLW\ DQG XQFHUWDLQW\ RQ WKH JOREDO VFDOH WKURXJK WKH FRQWDJLRQ HIIHFW QHJDWLYHO\ LQIOXHQFLQJWKHHFRQRPLFJURZWK)',G\QDPLFLQILJXUHHPSKDVL]HVRQWKHRQHVLGHWKHKLJKOHYHORIYRODWLOLW\ HVSHFLDOO\VWDUWLQJRQDQGRQWKHRWKHUVLGHWKDWLQWKHVHOHFWHGFRXQWULHVIURP&HQWUDODQG(DVWHUQ(XURSH PDVVLYHFDSLWDOLQIORZVZHUHIROORZHGE\DVKDUSGHFUHDVHVLQFH 2003 20.00 2000 10.00 2001 0.00 Ͳ10.00 2002 Ͳ20.00

2004 2005 2006 2007

2012 2011

2008 2010

2009

Bulgaria CzechRepublic Hungary Japan Moldova Poland Romania SlovakRepublic Slovenia Ukraine

 )LJ(YROXWLRQRI*'3RYHUWKHSHULRG± 6RXUFHPDGHE\DXWKRUEDVHGRQGDWDIURPKWWSGDWDZRUOGEDQNRUJ

*'3JURZWKZDVKLJKHULQWKHSHULRGZLWKPDVVLYHFDSLWDOLQIORZVDQGDIWHUZDUGVVXGGHQO\GHFUHDVHVDIWHU HQGLQJWKLVSHULRGWRUHFRYHU)LJXUHDERYHKLJKOLJKWVWKDW*'3JURZWKUDWHVLQWKHVDPHSHULRGIRU&((&V KDVUHFRUGHGDQXSZDUGWUHQGGXULQJWKHSHULRGZLWKPDVVLYHFDSLWDOIORZVPHDQZKLOHVWDUWLQJWKHIDOO LQWKH*'3JURZWKUDWHVZDVVLJQLILFDQW$IWHUWKHSHULRGZLWKPDVVLYHFDSLWDOLQIORZVHQGVWKH*'3WUDMHFWRU\ LVXQGHUWKHIRUPRI³9´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³KRW IORZV´ 7KH SDSHU KDV IRFXVHG RQ WKH LPSOLFDWLRQVRIILQDQFLDOJOREDOL]DWLRQHPSKDVL]LQJWKDWGHYHORSHGDQGHPHUJLQJFRXQWULHVKDYHWRDFFHSWWKLV SKHQRPHQRQLQWKHLURZQUK\WKPEHFDXVHRWKHUZLVHLWKDVGHVWDELOL]LQJHIIHFWVDQGIDFLOLWDWHVWKHWUDQVPLVVLRQ RIWKHLPEDODQFHV7KHLQFUHDVHGLQWHUGHSHQGHQFLHVEHWZHHQWKHFRXQWULHVDQGWKHFRQWDJLRQKDYHDOVRH[HUWHG DQLPSRUWDQWFRQWULEXWLRQWRWKHWUDQVPLVVLRQRIWKHLQVWDELOLW\LQWKHQDWLRQDOFRXQWULHV)RUHLJQFDSLWDOIORZV )', DQG SRUWIROLR DQG RWKHU HTXLW\ IORZV KDYH NQRZQ D VWURQJO\ LQFUHDVH RI WKHLU YRODWLOLW\ ZKLFK KDV KDG

356

Lenuţa Carp / Procedia Economics and Finance 15 (2014) 350 – 356

QHJDWLYH HIIHFWV RQ WKH HFRQRPLF JURZWK UDWHV 7KH OLPLWDWLRQV RI WKH UHVHDUFK FDUULHG RXW LQ WKLV SDSHU DUH JHQHUDWHG E\ WKH IDFW WKDW WKH DWWHQWLRQ LV IRFXVHG HVSHFLDOO\ RQ WKH SHULRG GXULQJ WKH FXUUHQW FULVLV ZLWKRXW KLJKOLJKWLQJWKHIHDWXUHVRIWKHIRUHLJQIORZVRUHFRQRPLFJURZWKEHIRUHWKHFULVLV)XUWKHUWKHDQDO\VLVZLOOEH GHYHORSHG WKURXJK DQ HFRQRPHWULF FRPSDUDWLYH VWXG\ EHWZHHQ WKH HIIHFWV RI FDSLWDO IORZV YRODWLOLW\ LQ HPHUJLQJDQGDGYDQFHGHFRQRPLHV

5HIHUHQFHV $LWNHQ%Have Institutional Investors Destabilized Emerging Markets?, &RQWHPSRUDU\(FRQRPLF3ROLF\9RO1R $L]HQPDQ-6XVKNR9Capital Flows: Catalyst or Hindrance to Economic Takeoffs, 1%(5:RUOLQJ3DSHU %URWR&Measuring and Explaining the Volatility of Capital Flows Towards Emerging Countries, %DQFRGH(VSDQD'RFXPHQWRGH 7UDEDMR1R &KDPRQ 0 *KRVK $ 2VWU\ - 4XLUHVKL 0 Managing Capital Inflws: The Role of Controls and Prudential Policies, 1%(5 :RUNLQJ3DSHU )RUEHV.:DUQRFN)Capital Flows Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight and Retrenchment, 1%(5:RUNLQJ3DSHU1R )UDW]VFKHU0Capital Flows, Global Shocks and the 2007 – 08 Financial Crisis, 1%(5:RUNLQJ3DSHU *HORV*International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility and Contagion – a Survey, ,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQHWDU\ )XQG:RUNLQJ 3DSHU *RXULQFKDV3-HDQQH2On the Benefits of Capital Account Liberalization for Emerging Economies, 3ULQFHWRQ8QLYHUVLW\ KWWSGDWDZRUOGEDQNRUJ ,0)The Quality of Domestic Financial Markets and Capital Inflows, *OREDO)LQDQFLDO6WDELOLW\5HSRUW&KDSWHU,,, ,0):RUOG(FRQRPLF2XWORRN$SULO:DVKLQJWRQ'& ,WR + -RQJZDQLFK - 7HUDGD ± +DJLZDUD $  What Makes Developing Asia Resilient in a Financially Globalized World? $'% (FRQRPLFV:RUNLQJ3DSHU6HULHV0DQLOD$VLDQ'HYHORSPHQW%DQN .DPLQVNL*International Capital Flows, Financial Stability and Growth, '(6$:RUNLQJ3DSHU1R /DQH30LOHVL±)HUUHWWL*±0 The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised an Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970 – 2004, -RXUQDORI,QWHUQDWLRQDO(FRQRPLFV   1HXPDQQ 5 0 3HQO 5 7DQNX $  Volatility of Capital Flows and Financial Liberalization: Do Specific Flows Respond Differently?, PLPHR8QLYHUVLW\RI:LQVFRQVLQ 1HXPDQQ53HQO57DQNX$Volatility of Capital Flows and Financial Liberalization: Do Specific Flows Respond Differently? ,QWHUQDWLRQDO5HYLHZRI(FRQRPLFVDQG)LQDQFHSS 2VWU\-*KRVK$+DEHUPHLHU.&KDPRQ04XUHVKL0/DHYHQ/.RNHQ\HQH$Managing Capital Inflows: What Tools to Use?, ,0)'LVFXVVLRQ1RWH6'1 3DYORYD$5LJRERQ5The Role of Portfolio Constraints in the International Propagation of Shocks, &(35:RUNLQJ3DSHU 3UDVDG(.RVH$Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence, ,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQHWDU\ )XQG2FDVLRQDO3DSHU 6HYHUQ /1JX\HQ +  Global Imbalances Before and After the Global Crisis, 7KH :RUOG %DQN 3ROLF\ 5HVHDUFK :RNLQJ 3DSHU  :HL6-Not All Financial Integration is Created Equal: The Composition Matters. ,Q0'HYHUHX[3/DQH&<3DUNDQG6- :HL HGV The Dynamics of Asian Financial Integration: Facts and Analytics. 2[RQ DQG 1HZ