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Improving parking availability prediction in smart cities with IoT and ensemble-based model
Journal Pre-proofs Improving parking availability prediction in Smart Cities with IoT and ensemble-based model Stéphane Cédric Koumetio Tekouabou, El Arbi Abdellaoui Alaoui, Walid Cherif, Hassan Silkan PII: DOI: Reference:
S1319-1578(19)31261-3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jksuci.2020.01.008 JKSUCI 735
To appear in:
Journal of King Saud University - Computer and Information Sciences
Received Date: Revised Date: Accepted Date:
23 September 2019 10 January 2020 17 January 2020
Please cite this article as: Tekouabou, S.C.K., Alaoui, E.A.A., Cherif, W., Silkan, H., Improving parking availability prediction in Smart Cities with IoT and ensemble-based model, Journal of King Saud University - Computer and Information Sciences (2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jksuci.2020.01.008
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© 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of King Saud University.
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}iiBM; i?2 KQ/2H
h` BMBM; b2i
S`2T `2/ . i
Pretraitment
T est
1Mb2K#H2 JQ/2H
h2biBM; b2i
bad
Optimization
L2r BMbi M+2
Preprocessing steps
data preprocessed
JQ/2H 1p Hm iBQM
good 6BM H 1Mb2K@ predicts #H2 JQ/2H
Optimization
bad
S `F p BH #BHBiv
6B;m`2 8, :HQ# H 2Mb2K#H2@# b2/ avbi2K 7Q` _2 H@iBK2 S `FBM; p BH #BHBiv S`2/B+iBQM
`2;`2bbBQM +QMi2ti- #mi i?2v HbQ 2ti2M/ p2`v 2 bBHv iQ bm@ T2`pBb2/ +H bbB}+ iBQMX q2 /2MQi2 #v (X, Y) ` M/QK p2+@ iQ` `2T`2b2MiBM; i?2 H2 `MBM; / i r?2`2 X i F2b Bib p Hm2b BM R p M/ Y BM RX q2 /2MQi2 Dn 4 (X1 , Y1 ), ..., (Xn , Yn V b KTH2 BM/2T2M/2Mi M/ 2[m HHv /Bbi`B#mi2/X M/ rBi? i?2 b K2 H r i? i (X, Y) M/ m(x) ˆ = E[Y|X = x] i?2 `2;`2bbBQM 7mM+iBQMX 6Q` x ∈ R p - r2 +QMbB/2` i?2 K2 M b[m `2/ 2``Q` Q7 M 2biBK iQ` m M/ Bib #B b@p `B M+2 /2+QKTQbBiBQM b 7QHHQrb,
Dn X h?2 # ;;BM; TT`Q +? Bb iQ i`v iQ KBiB; i2 i?2 /2T2M@ /2M+v #2ir22M i?2 KQ/2Hb i? i `2 ;;`2; i2/ #v #mBH/BM; i?2K QM #QQibi` T b KTH2bX
UjV
Ç m ∈ N i?2 MmK#2` Q7 + M/B/ i2 p `B #H2b iQ +mi MQ/2X 1 PB PmiTmi, i?2 2biBK iQ` m(x) ˆ = m ˆ k (x) B k=1 R, 7Q` k = 1 iQ B /Q k, .` r #QQibi` T b KTH2 dnk BM dn j, /Dmbi i?2 `2;`2bbQ` QM i?Bb #QQibi` T b KTH2 m(x)X ˆ 9, 2M/ 7Q`
(m(x) ˆ − m(x))2 = (E m(x) ˆ − m(x))2 + V(m(x)) ˆ
H;Q`Bi?K R " ;;BM; _2;`2bbQ` U"_V AMTmi,
Ç dn i?2 Q#b2`p iBQMc Ç B i?2 MmK#2` Q7 h`22bc
ˆ 1- m ˆ 2h?2v +QMbBbi BM ;;`2; iBM; MmK#2` B Q7 KQ/2Hb m XXX- m ˆ B bm+? i? i, B
m(x) ˆ = M/ r2 ? p2,
1X (m ˆ k (x)) B k=1
U9V j9y
E m(x) ˆ = Em1 (x)
U8V
M/
jj8
Ç x i?2 Q#b2`p iBQM iQ T`2/B+ic
1 V(m(x)) ˆ = V(m1 (x)) UeV B h?2 #B b Q7 i?2 ;;`2; i2 KQ/2H Bb i?2`27Q`2 i?2 b K2 b i? i Q7 i?2 m ˆ k #mi i?2 p `B M+2 /2+`2 b2bX P7 +Qm`b2-j98 BM T` +iB+2 Bi Bb HKQbi BKTQbbB#H2 iQ +QMbB/2` BM/2T2M/2Mi KQ/2Hb m ˆ k BMbQ7 ` b i?2v HH /2T2M/ QM i?2 b K2 b KTH2 e
9XeXkX _ M/QK 6Q`2bi _2;`2bbBQM U_6_V _ M/QK 7Q`2bi Bb MQi?BM; KQ`2 i? M T `iB+mH ` # ;@ ;BM; K2i?Q/ +QMbBbiBM; Q7 M ;;`2; iBQM Q7 i`22b # b2/ QM ` M/QK p `B #H2bX JQbi Q7i2M- i`22b `2 #mBHi rBi? i?2 +H bbB}+ iBQM M/ `2;`2bbBQM i`22 U*_hV H;Q`Bi?K r?Qb2 T`BM+BTH2 Bb iQ `2+m`bBp2Hv T `iBiBQM i?2 bT +2 ;2M2` i2/ #v i?2 2tTH M iQ`v p `B #H2b BM /v /B+ r vX JQ`2 T`2+Bb2Hv-
i 2 +? bi ;2 Q7 i?2 T `iBiBQMBM;- T `i Q7 i?2 bT +2 Bb +mij38 ? p2 /Bz2`2Mi r2B;?ib # b2/ QM i?2B` Qp2` HH ++m` +v Qp2` BMiQ irQ bm#@T `ib ++Q`/BM; iQ p `B #H2 X j (kN)X i?2 r2B;?i2/ i` BMBM; b2i (j3)X h?2 T`Q+2bb Q7 / TiBp2 "QQbiBM; Bb T`2b2Mi2/ BM i?2 H;Q`Bi?K jX H;Q`Bi?K k _ M/QK 6Q`2bi _2;`2bbQ` U_6_V AMTmi,
Ç x i?2 Q#b2`p iBQM iQ T`2/B+ic
H;Q`Bi?K j / "QQbiBM; _2;`2bbQ` U"_V
Ç dn i?2 Q#b2`p iBQMc
AMTmi,
Ç B i?2 MmK#2` Q7 h`22bc
Ç dn = (x1 , y1 ), ..., (xn , yn ) i?2 b KTH2c
Ç m ∈ N i?2 MmK#2` Q7 + M/B/ i2 p `B #H2b iQ +mi MQ/2X 1 PB h(x, y) PmiTmi, h(x) = B k=1 R, 7Q` k = 1 iQ B /Q k, .` r #QQibi` T b KTH2 BM dn j, *QMbi`m+i *_h i`22 QM i?Bb #QQibi` T b KTH22 +? +miQz Bb b2H2+i2/ #v KBMBKBxBM; i?2 +Qbi 7mM+iBQM Q7 *_h Qp2` b2i Q7 m ` M/QKHv b2H2+i2/ p `B #H2b KQM; i?2 TX q2 MQi2 h(., k) i?2 #mBHi i`22X 9, 2M/ 7Q`
j8y
j88
jey
je8
Ç i?2 r2 F `mH2c Ç M i?2 MmK#2` Q7 Bi2` iBQMbXc PmiTmi, i?2 2biBK iQ` gˆ M (x) R, AMBiB HBx iBQM , M
g0 (.) = argmin f (x) = x
k, j,
9XdX "QQbiBM; K2i?Q/ AM i?2 bi i2 Q7 i?2 `i Q7 K +?BM2 H2 `MBM;- #QQbiBM; Bb T`QpBM; iQ #2 QM2 Q7 i?2 KQbi 2z2+iBp2 B/2 b Q7 i?2 T bi i?`22 /2+ /2b M/ +QMiBMm2b iQ #2 i?2 bm#D2+i Q7 #mM/ Mi HBi2` im`2 (jR- jk)X b i?2 M K2 BKTHB2b- i?2 ;2M2` H T`BM@ +BTH2 Q7 #QQbiBM; Bb iQ #mBH/ 7 KBHv Q7 KQ/2Hb i? i `2 i?2M ;;`2; i2/ #v r2B;?i2/ p2` ;2 Q7 2biBK i2b UBM `2@ ;`2bbBQMV Q` K DQ`Biv pQi2 UBM +H bbB}+ iBQMVX lMHBF2 i?2 #Qp2 # ;;BM; K2i?Q/- BM #QQbiBM; i?2 +H bbB+ H BM+`2 b2 BM bm#b2i +`2 iBQM Bb MQi ` M/QKX h?2 ;2M2` H B/2 Q7 KQbi #QQbiBM; K2i?Q/b Bb iQ i` BM T`2/B+iQ`b b2[m2MiB HHv- 2 +? i`vBM; iQ +Q``2+i Bib T`2/2+2bbQ` (j3)X h?2 T2`7Q`K M+2 jNy /2T2M/b QM i?2 T2`7Q`K M+2 Q7 T`2pBQmb KQ/2Hb b 2 +? M2r bm#b2i Bb Bi2` i2/ QM i?2 T`2pBQmb +QMi BM2/ 2H2K2Mib i? i +QmH/ ? p2 #22M KBb+H bbB}2/ #v T`2pBQmb KQ/2HbX /@ "QQbi M/ :` /B2Mi "QQbiBM; `2 KQM; i?2 KQbi TQTm@ H ` #QQbiBM; K2i?Q/bX jN8
jdy
jd8
j3y
Ç x i?2 Q#b2`p iBQM iQ T`2/B+ic
9XdXRX / TiBp2 "QQbiBM; _2;`2bbBQM U"_V h?2 / TiBp2 #QQbiBM; K2i?Q/ Bb # b2/ QM i?2 7 +i i? i M2r T`2/B+iQ` iQ +Q``2+i i?2 2``Q` Q7 Bib T`2/2+2bbQ` bBK@ THv T vb HBiiH2 KQ`2 ii2MiBQM iQ i?2 i` BMBM; BMbi M+2b mM/2` r?B+? i?2 T`2/2+2bbQ` ? b / Ti2/X h?2 `2bmHi Bb M2r T`2/B+iQ`b i? i 7Q+mb KQ`2 M/ KQ`2 QM /B{+mHi + b2bX9yy 6Q` 2t KTH2- iQ +`2 i2 M / "QQbi +H bbB}2`- +QMbB/2` }`bi +H bbB}2` i? i Bb MQi?BM; KQ`2 i? M /2+BbBQM i`22X h?Bb T`BKBiBp2 i`22 7Q`K2/ Bb mb2/ iQ K F2 T`2/B+iBQMb QM i?2 b2i Q7 7Q`K iBQMbX h?2 r2B;?i +Q``2bTQM/BM; iQ i?2 KBb+H bbB}2/ i` BMBM; BMbi M+2b Bb i?2M BM+`2 b2/X b2+QM/ +H bbB}2` Bb i?2M 7Q`K2/ # b2/ QM i?2b2 mT/ i2/ r2B;?ib9y8 (9k)X h?2 b2+QM/ +H bbB}2` ; BM K F2b T`2/B+iBQMb #Qmi i?2 i` BMBM; ; K2X h?2 r2B;?ib `2 i?2M mT/ i2/- M/ bQ QMX PM+2 HH i?2 T`2/B+iQ`b ? p2 #22M 7Q`K2/- i?2 b2i K F2b T`2/B+iBQMb p2`v bBKBH ` iQ # ;;BM; Q` T biBM; QT2`@ iBQMbX h?2 QMHv /Bz2`2M+2 Bb i? i i?2 `2bmHiBM; T`2/B+iQ`b9Ry d
1X L(yi , c) n m=1
7Q` m = 1 iQ M /Q ∂ * H+mH i2 i?2 QTTQbBi2 Q7 i?2 ;` /B2Mi ∂y L(y, g)Ƙ M/ 2p Hm i2 Bi i TQBMib gm1 (xi ) , " # ∂l(yi , gm (xi )) , i = 1, ..., n. Ui = − ∂g(xi ) g(xi )=gm−1 (xi )
/Dmbi i?2 r2 F `mH2 QM i?2 b KTH2 (x1 , U1 ), ..., (xn , Un )- r2 MQiB+2 hm i?2 `mH2 i?mb /2}M2/X 8, lT/ i2 , gm (x) = gm−1 (x) + λhm (x) e, 2M/ 7Q` 9,
9XdXkX :` /B2Mi "QQbiBM; _2;`2bbBQM U:"_V MQi?2` p2`v TQTmH ` `2BM7Q`+2K2Mi H;Q`Bi?K Bb ;` @ /B2Mi 2M? M+2K2MiX :` /B2Mi "QQbiBM; rQ`Fb bBKBH `Hv iQ / "QQbi #v b2[m2MiB HHv //BM; T`2/B+iQ`b iQ b2i- bQ i? i 2p2`vQM2 i`B2b iQ +Q``2+i i?2 2``Q`b Q7 Bib T`2/2+2b@ bQ`X >Qr2p2`- BMbi2 / Q7 /DmbiBM; i?2 BMbi M+2 r2B;?ib i 2 +? Bi2` iBQM- b / "QQbi /Q2b- i?Bb K2i?Q/ i`B2b iQ }i i?2 M2r T`2/B+iQ` iQ i?2 `2bB/m H 2``Q`b +QKKBii2/ #v i?2 T`2pBQmb QM2 (j3)X 8X 1tT2`BK2Mi H _2bmHib M/ /Bb+mbbBQM AM i?Bb bm#b2+iBQM- r2 rBHH /2i BH i?2 2tT2`BK2Mib Q7 i?2 T`Q+2bb Q7 T `FBM; p BH #BHBiv T`2/B+iBQM # b2/ QM 2Mb2K@ #H2 K2i?Q/X 8XRX . i b2i b b?QrM BM };m`2 8- Qm` ;HQ# H T`2/B+iBp2 bvbi2K +QM@ bBbib Q7 b2p2` H T? b2bX h?2 }`bi bi2T +QMbBbib Q7 +QHH2+iBM; / i 7`QK i?2 b2MbQ`b BMbi HH2/ BM i?2 /Bz2`2Mi bK `i T `F@ BM;bX i i?Bb H2p2H- i?2 / i Bb +QHH2+i2/ BM T `FBM; / i # b2 b +bp }H2X h?2 / i M Hvx2/ BM i?Bb T T2` +QK2b 7`QK i?2 "B`KBM;? K + ` T `F M/ r b }`bi mb2/ BM (j9- j8) +QKT`BbBM; p HB/ Q++mT M+v ` i2b Q7 kN + ` T `Fb QT2` i2/ #v L*S UL iBQM H * ` S `FbV BM i?2 +Biv Q7 "B`KBM;? K
t Q7 i?2 / i2 d- QM i?2 + T +Biv Q7 i?2 T `FBM; HQiX AM Qm` + b2- Bi Bb + H+mH i2/ #v i?2 7QHHQrBM; 7Q`KmH ,
H;Q`Bi?K 9 :` /B2Mi "QQbiBM; _2;`2bbBQM U:"_V AMTmi,
Ç x i?2 Q#b2`p iBQM iQ T`2/B+ic
Ç h r2 F `mH2-
AVR p (t) =
Ç dn = (x1 , y1 ), ..., (xn , yn ) i?2 b KTH2c Ç λ `2;mH `Bx iBQM T ` K2i2` bm+? b 0 < λ < 1c
9k8
Ç M i?2 MmK#2` Q7 Bi2` iBQMbXc PM αm gm (x) PmiTmi, i?2 2biBK iQ` gˆ M (x) = m=1 R, AMBiB HBx iBQM , AMBiB HBx2 i?2 r2B;?i /Bbi`B#miBQM Q7 1 i` BMBM; / i #v wi = , i = 1, 2, ..., N 9jy N k, 7Q` m = 1 iQ M /Q j, /Dmbi i?2 r2 F `mH2 QM i?2 b KTH2 dn r2B;?i2/ #v i?2 r2B;?ib w1 , ..., wn - r2 MQi2 gm (x) i?2 2biBK iQ` `2bmHiBM; 7`QK i?Bb P /DmbiK2MiX N wi ∗ 1yi =gm (x) 9j8 9, *QKTmi2 em = i=1P i=1 nwi 1 − em 8, *QKTmi2 αm = log( )X em e, _2 /Dmbi i?2 r2B;?ib, wi = wi ∗ exp(wi ∗ 1yi =gm (x) )
99y
- i = 1, ..., N d, 2M/ 7Q`
9R8
9ky
BM i?2 lXEX "B`KBM;? K- r?B+? Bb K DQ` +Biv BM i?2 q2bi998 JB/H M/b Q7 1M;H M/- bi M/BM; QM i?2 bK HH _Bp2` _2 X Ai Bb i?2 H `;2bi M/ KQbi TQTmHQmb "`BiBb? +Biv QmibB/2 GQM@ /QM- rBi? M 2biBK i2/ TQTmH iBQM Q7 R-Rk9-8eN b Q7 kyRe (j9)X a2p2` H +BiB2b BM i?2 lXEX ? p2 #22M Tm#HBb?BM; i?2B` QT2M / i iQ #2 mb2/- MQi QMHv #v `2b2 `+?2`b M/ +QKT @ MB2b- #mi HbQ 7Q` +BiBx2Mb iQ #2ii2` FMQr i?2 TH +2 r?2`2 i?2v HBp2X h?2 "B`KBM;? K / i b2i Bb HB+2Mb2/ mM/2` i?2 PT2M :Qp2`MK2Mi GB+2Mb2 pjXy M/ Bi Bb mT/ i2/ 2p2`v R8 KBMmi2b 7`QK 3,yy J iQ 9,jy SJ UR3 Q++mT M+v p Hm2b T2` + ` T `F M/ / vVX AM Qm` bim/v- r2 rQ`F2/ rBi? / i +QHH2+i2/ 7`QK P+i 9- kyRe iQ .2+ RN- kyRe URR r22FbV r?B+? Bb p BH #H2 QM l*A K +?BM2 G2 `MBM; _2TQbBiQ`v (j9- j8)X h?2 b2H2+iBQM Q7 `2H2p Mi / i +QMbBbib BM 2HBKBM iBM; B``2H2p Mi M/ `2/mM/ Mi BM7Q`K iBQM (99- 9j)X 6Q` i?298y "B`KBM;? K S `FBM; . i # b2- i?2 72 im`2b +QMbB/2`2/ `2H2p Mi iQ i?2 T`Q#H2K `2, S ystemCodeNumber Bb M H@ T? MmK2`B+ +Q/2 i? i B/2MiB}2b + ` T `FX LastU pdated : +QMi BMb i?2 / i2 M/ iBK2 Q7 i?2 H bi mT/ i2 7Q` Q++m@ T M+v / i 7Q` 2 +? T `FBM; #HQ+FX a+?2/mH2b `2 `2+Q`/2/988 #2ir22M 3,jy K M/ e,jy TKX Capacity : +QMi BMb i?2 + T #BHBiB2b Q7 2 +? + ` T `FX Occupancy : +QMi BMb i?2 Q++mT iBQMb Q7 2 +? + ` T `F r?B+? `2 mT/ i2/ 2p2`v jy KBMX Pi?2` 72 im`2b bm+? b i?2 Q++mT M+v ` i2 M/ i?2 2tBi ` i2 Q7 2 +? T `FBM; HQi r2`2 MQi +QMbB/2`2/ BM i?Bb 9ey rQ`FX 6`QK i?2b2 72 im`2b r2 ? p2 ;2M2` i2/ bT2+B}+ 72 im`2 + HH2/ i?2 p BH #BHBiv ` i2 i? i r2 ? p2 MQi2/ AVR r?B+? Bb i?2 ` iBQ Q7 i?2 + T +Biv KBMmb i?2 Q++mT iBQM i iBK2 3
Capacity p − Occupancy p (t) Capacity p
UdV
b M 2t KTH2- + ` T `F ǴBHMBCCMKT 01Ǵ ? b + @ T +Biv Q7 8dd T `FBM; bT +2- i?2 y9fRyfkyRe i yd,8N,9k Bi ? b M Q++mT M+v Q7 eR- bQ r2 + M /2/m+2 `2 Q++mT M+v ` i2 i i?Bb iBK2 r?B+? Bb eRf8dd M/ Bb RyX8dWX h?2 p BH #BHBiv ` i2 BM i?Bb + ` T `F i i?Bb iBK2 Q7 i?Bb / i2 Bb 3NX9jW M/ b?Qrb i? i i?2 mb2` + M 2 bBHv T `F BM i?Bb T `FBM; i i?Bb iBK2 rBi?Qmi ? `KBM; i?2 i` {+X };m`2 e BHHmbi` i2b i?2 /Bbi`B#miBQM Q7 T `F p BH #BHBiv ` i2 ++Q`/@ BM; iQ i?2 / v iBK2 };m`2 eU V- i?2M #v / v Q7 r22F };m`2 eU#V M/ }M HHv ++Q`/BM; iQ 2 +? T `F HQi };m`2 eU+VX EMQrBM; i?2b2 p BH #BHBiv ` i2b BM `2 H iBK2- r2 `2 MQr HQQFBM; iQ T`2/B+i 7mim`2 p BH #BHBiv ` i2b rBi?Qmi FMQr@ BM; Q++mT iBQM mbBM; K +?BM2 H2 `MBM; H;Q`Bi?KbX h?2 p BH #BHBiv ` i2 Q7 T `FBM; bT +2b Bb i?2 }7i? p `B #H2 Q7 Qm` T`Q#H2K r?B+? rBHH #2 Qm` H #2HX 8XkX S2`7Q`K M+2 K2 bm`2b AM Q`/2` iQ #mBH/ M QTiBK H TT`Q +?- r2 +QKT `2/ i?2 T2`7Q`K M+2 Q7 /Bz2`2Mi KQ/2Hb mbBM; i?`22 K BM K2 @ bm`2b , i?2 K2 M #bQHmi2 2``Q` UJ1V- i?2 `@b[m `2 UR2 V M/ i?2 `QQi K2 M b[m `2 2``Q` U_Ja1VX h?2 i?`22 i2`Kb + M Dm/;2 i?2 /Bz2`2M+2 #2ir22M i?2 `2 H M/ T`2/B+i2/ T `FBM; p BH #BHBiv ` i2b BM /Bz2`2Mi bT2+ibX h?2v `2 + H+mH i2/ b 7QHHQrb, (jj) s PN 2 i=1 (AVRi , p − AVRi ) U3V RMS E = N−1 PN | AVRi , p − AVRi | MAE = i=1 UNV N PN (AVRi , p − AVRi ) 2 URyV R = 1 − Pi=1 N i=1 (AVRi , p − AVRi )
q?2`2 N Bb i?2 iQi H MmK#2` Q7 BMbi M+2b- AVRi , p Bb i?2 T`2/B+i2/ p BH #BHBiv ` i2 Q7 i?2 BMbi M+2 i M/ AVRi Bb i?2 `2 H p BH #BHBiv ` i2 Q7 i?Bb BMbi M+2X h?2 +?QB+2 Q7 bBM;H2 K2 bm`2 K v MQi Hr vb HHQr iQ b2T ` i2 i?2 KQ/@ 2HbX A7 i?2 _Ja1 rBHH b?Qr i?2 2``Q` +? ` +i2`Bx2/ #v i?2 p `B M+2 M/ K2 M #2ir22M i?2 T`2/B+i2/ M/ i?2 `2 H #v 7 pQ`BM; i?2 2z2+ib Q7 i?2 ?B;? /2pB iBQMb- i?2 #bQHmi2 2`@ `Q` K v `2~2+i i?2 2z2+i Q7 i?2 T`2+BbBQM BM i?2 T`2/B+iBQM Q7 i?2 r BiBM; iBK2 M/ R2 rBHH b?Qr mb i?2 T`QTQ`iBQM Q7 i?2 +im H r BiBM; iBK2 i? i ? b #22M +Q``2+iHv T`2/B+i2/X h?2 QTiBK H KQ/2H rBHH `2bmHi 7`QK i?2 ?QKQ;2M2Biv #2@ ir22M i?2b2 i?`22 K2 bm`2bX 8XjX PTiBKBxBM; bBKmH iBQM T ` K2i2`b q2 r Mi iQ +QKT `2 i?2 T2`7Q`K M+2b Q7 i?2 /Bz2`2Mi H2 `MBM; K2i?Q/b /Bb+mbb2/ BM i?2 b2+iBQM 9 iQ i?2 T`2/B+@ iBQM Q7 i?2 p BH #BHBiv ` i2 Q7 T `FBM; bT +2bX q2 ? p2
U V
U#V
U+V
6B;m`2 e, .Bbi`B#miBQM Q7 i?2 T `F p BH #BHBiv
9e8
9dy
9d8
93y
938
9Ny
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S1319-1578(19)31261-3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jksuci.2020.01.008 JKSUCI 735
To appear in:
Journal of King Saud University - Computer and Information Sciences
Received Date: Revised Date: Accepted Date:
23 September 2019 10 January 2020 17 January 2020
Please cite this article as: Tekouabou, S.C.K., Alaoui, E.A.A., Cherif, W., Silkan, H., Improving parking availability prediction in Smart Cities with IoT and ensemble-based model, Journal of King Saud University - Computer and Information Sciences (2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jksuci.2020.01.008
This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
© 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of King Saud University.
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ELL Bb H xv H2 `MBM; H;Q`Bi?K i? i mb2b MQM@ T ` K2i`B+ K2i?Q/ iQ bQHp2 +H bbB}+ iBQM Q` `2;`2bbBQM T`Q#H2K (9R)X Ai bbB;Mb i?2 +H bb Q` `2;`2bbBQM p Hm2 #v p2` ;BM; i?2 M2 `2bi k M2B;?#Q` p Hm2b- 7Q` MmK2`B+ BM@ bi M+2b- Q` TTHvBM; i?2 K DQ`Biv pQi2 7Q` k M2B;?#Q`b- B7 i?2 BMbi M+2 p Hm2b `2 + i2;Q`B+ HX 7i2` b2H2+iBM; i?2 k M2 `2bi M2B;?#Q`b- i?2 p Hm2 + M #2 T`2/B+i2/ 2Bi?2` #v p@ 2` ;BM; i?2 k M2B;?#Q` QmiTmib UmMB7Q`K r2B;?iBM;V Q` r2B;?i2/ bmK /2}M2/ #v 7mM+iBQM (jN- 9y)X 9X9X .2+BbBQM h`22b h?2 T`2/B+iBQM i`22 i2+?MB[m2 `2HB2b QM i?2 mb2 Q7 i?2 i`22 iQ `2T`2b2Mi i?2 `2+m`bBp2 T `iBiBQM Q7 i?2 BMBiB H iQi H bT +2X 1 +? Q7 i?2 i2`KBM H MQ/2b- Q` H2 p2b- Q7 i?2 i`22 `2T`2b2Mib +2HH Q7 i?2 T `iBiBQM M/ Bb bbQ+B i2/ rBi? bBKTH2 KQ/2H i? i TTHB2b QMHv iQ i? i +2HHX hQ #2ii2` mM@ /2`bi M/- +QMbB/2` `2;`2bbBQM T`Q#H2K rBi? +QMiBMmQmb QmiTmi p `B #H2 Y M/ irQ BM/2T2M/2Mi p `B #H2b X1 M/ X2 X q2 `2 BMbTB`2/ #v i?2 7 +i i? i r2 ? p2 iQ /BpB/2 iQ #2ii2` `2B;M- iQ }`bi /BpB/2 Qm` bT +2 BMiQ irQ `2;BQMb M/ KQ/2H i?2 Y `2bTQMb2 UK2 M Q7 YV BM/BpB/m HHv BM 2 +? `2;BQMX h?2M r2 +QMiBMm2 iQ bTHBi 2 +? BM/BpB/m H `2;BQM BMiQ irQ KQ`2 `2;BQMb M/ +QMiBMm2 i?2 T`Q+2bb mMiBH biQT `mH2 Bb K2i (98)X hQ ;2M2` HBx2 i?2 T`2pBQmb + b2 , +QMbB/2` `2;`2bbBQM T`Q#H2K +QMbBbiBM; Q7 p 2Mi`B2b rBi? bBM@ ;H2 QmiTmi p `B #H2X 6Q` 2t KTH2- r2 ? p2 k BMbi M+2b2 +? BMbi M+2 #2BM; +QKTQb2/ Q7 (yi , xi1 , xi2 ., xi j , .., xi p ) 7Q` i = 1, 2, ..., k; j = 1, 2, ..., pX AM i2`Kb Q7 T`2/B+iBM; i?2 p BH #BHBiv ` i2 Q7 TH +2b BM bK `i + ` T `F- yi + M #2 i?2 p BH #BHBiv ` i2 i T `FBM; i- (xi1 , xi2 , ..., xi j , .., xi p ) `2 `2H2p Mi p `B #H2b 7Q` i?2 ` i2 iBK2 Q7 T`2/B+i2/ p BH #BH@ Biv- bm+? b iBK2- / i2- + T +Biv- B/2MiB}2`- Q` Qi?2` 7 +@ iQ`bX h?2 +? ` +i2`BbiB+ bT +2 Bb T `iBiBQM2/ BMiQ M `2;BQMb E1 , E2 , ..., Em X AM Qi?2` rQ`/b- i?2 `2;`2bbBQM i`22 /BpB/2b i?2 i` {+ +QM/BiBQMb BMiQ + i2;Q`B2b # b2/ QM i?2 p Hm2 Q7 i?2 BMTmi T ` K2i2`b M/ KQ/2Hb i?2 `2bTQMb2 U/2T2M/2Mi
6B;m`2 j, aK `i T `FBM; bvbi2K
" bB+ KQ/2Hb
"QQbi` T
XXXXXXXXX
D1
XXXXXXXX
D2
Dn
XXXXXXXX
R1
R2
XXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXX
S `FBM; . i b2i U.V
;;`2; iBQM
Rn
jRy
*QK#BM iBQM
Q7 # bB+ KQ/2Hb
jR8
jky
6B;m`2 9, 1Mb2K#H2@# b2/ JQ/2H jk8
p `B #H2V BM/BpB/m HHv 7Q` 2 +? + i2;Q`vX h?2 Mbr2` 7Q` 2 +? `2;BQM Bb Q7i2M i`2 i2/ b Cm +QMbi MiX minimize(S S E) =
Em X n X
(yi − Ck )2
URVjjy
Rm `2;BQM (kN)X hQ }M/ i?2 QTiBK H `2;BQM r2 mb2 +Qbi +QKTH2tBiv T ` K2i2` (α) r?B+? T2M HBx2b Qm` Q#D2+iBp2 7mM+iBQM BM 2[m iBQM URV 7Q` i?2 MmK#2` Q7 i2`KBM H MQ/2b Q7 i?2 i`22 (T ) b BM 2[m iBQM UkVX hQ +?QQb2 i?2 #2bi /B@ pBbBQM p `B #H2 M/ i?2 /BpB/BM; TQBMi- ;`22/v H;Q`Bi?K r b BKTH2K2Mi2/X 6Q` 2 +? /BpBbBQM p `B #H2- i?2 #2bi /B@ pBbBQM TQBMi + M #2 /2i2`KBM2/ #v b+ MMBM; HH TQbbB#H2 p Hm2b- i?Bb b?QmH/ #2 /QM2 p2`v [mB+FHvX "v #`QrbBM; HH i?2 BMTmi p `B #H2b- Bi Bb TQbbB#H2 iQ }M/ i?2 #2bi T B` Q7 bTHBi p `B #H2 M/ bTHBi TQBMibX bBM;H2 `2;`2bbBQM i`22 Bb i?2 # bB+ KQ/2H 7Q` i?2 TQr2`7mH _ M/QK 6Q`2bi M/ :` @ /B2Mi "QQbiBM; `2;`2bbBQM i`22b K2i?Q/bX 9X8X 1Mb2K#H2@# b2/ KQ/2Hb 7Q` `2;`2bbBQM h?2 ;2M2` H B/2 Q7 i?2 r?QH2 Bb bmKK `Bx2/ BM };m`2 9 r?B+? b?Qrb i? i i?2b2 KQ/2Hb `2 # b2/ QM i?`22 K BM bi ;2b M K2Hv, #QQibi` TTBM;- BMi2`K2/B i2 KQ/2HBM; M/ ;;`2; iBQMX h?2 #QQibi` TTBM; +QMbBbib BM /BpB/BM; HH / i D BMiQ n / i D1 - D2 - XXXXX- Dn X 6`QK 2 +? / i b2i Di r2 rBHH +QMbi`m+i M BMi2`K2/B `v `2;`2bbQ` Ri M/ i?2 }M H `2;`2bbQ` rBHH #2 M ;;`2; iBQM Q7 i?2 BMi2`K2/B i2 `2;`2bbQ`b Ri X 6`QK i?Bb ;2M2` H B/2 rBHH #2 #Q`M b2p2` H K2i?Q/b KQM; r?B+? i?2 KQbi TQr2`7mH `2 i?2 # ;;BM; mb2/ BM i?2 _ M/QK 6Q`2bi H;Q`Bi?K M/ i?2 "QQbiBM; mb2/ #v :` /B2Mi "QQbiBM; M/ / TiBp2 "QQbiBM;X
Ek=1 i=1
minimizeS S E + α|T | jy8
9XeX " ;;BM; K2i?Q/ 9XeXRX " ;;BM; _2;`2bbBQM U"_V h?2 i2`K # ;;BM; +QK2b 7`QK i?2 +QMi` +iBQM Q7 "QQi@ bi` T ;;`2; iBM;X q2 T`2b2Mi i?Bb 7 KBHv Q7 K2i?Q/b BM
UkV
aBM+2 i?2 QTiBKBx iBQM +`Bi2`BQM +QMbBbib BM KBMBKBxBM; i?2 bmK Q7 b[m `2b- i?2 #2bi Cm Bb QMHv i?2 K2 M Q7 yi BM i?2 8
T rain S `FBM; / i # b2
}iiBM; i?2 KQ/2H
h` BMBM; b2i
S`2T `2/ . i
Pretraitment
T est
1Mb2K#H2 JQ/2H
h2biBM; b2i
bad
Optimization
L2r BMbi M+2
Preprocessing steps
data preprocessed
JQ/2H 1p Hm iBQM
good 6BM H 1Mb2K@ predicts #H2 JQ/2H
Optimization
bad
S `F p BH #BHBiv
6B;m`2 8, :HQ# H 2Mb2K#H2@# b2/ avbi2K 7Q` _2 H@iBK2 S `FBM; p BH #BHBiv S`2/B+iBQM
`2;`2bbBQM +QMi2ti- #mi i?2v HbQ 2ti2M/ p2`v 2 bBHv iQ bm@ T2`pBb2/ +H bbB}+ iBQMX q2 /2MQi2 #v (X, Y) ` M/QK p2+@ iQ` `2T`2b2MiBM; i?2 H2 `MBM; / i r?2`2 X i F2b Bib p Hm2b BM R p M/ Y BM RX q2 /2MQi2 Dn 4 (X1 , Y1 ), ..., (Xn , Yn V b KTH2 BM/2T2M/2Mi M/ 2[m HHv /Bbi`B#mi2/X M/ rBi? i?2 b K2 H r i? i (X, Y) M/ m(x) ˆ = E[Y|X = x] i?2 `2;`2bbBQM 7mM+iBQMX 6Q` x ∈ R p - r2 +QMbB/2` i?2 K2 M b[m `2/ 2``Q` Q7 M 2biBK iQ` m M/ Bib #B b@p `B M+2 /2+QKTQbBiBQM b 7QHHQrb,
Dn X h?2 # ;;BM; TT`Q +? Bb iQ i`v iQ KBiB; i2 i?2 /2T2M@ /2M+v #2ir22M i?2 KQ/2Hb i? i `2 ;;`2; i2/ #v #mBH/BM; i?2K QM #QQibi` T b KTH2bX
UjV
Ç m ∈ N i?2 MmK#2` Q7 + M/B/ i2 p `B #H2b iQ +mi MQ/2X 1 PB PmiTmi, i?2 2biBK iQ` m(x) ˆ = m ˆ k (x) B k=1 R, 7Q` k = 1 iQ B /Q k, .` r #QQibi` T b KTH2 dnk BM dn j, /Dmbi i?2 `2;`2bbQ` QM i?Bb #QQibi` T b KTH2 m(x)X ˆ 9, 2M/ 7Q`
(m(x) ˆ − m(x))2 = (E m(x) ˆ − m(x))2 + V(m(x)) ˆ
H;Q`Bi?K R " ;;BM; _2;`2bbQ` U"_V AMTmi,
Ç dn i?2 Q#b2`p iBQMc Ç B i?2 MmK#2` Q7 h`22bc
ˆ 1- m ˆ 2h?2v +QMbBbi BM ;;`2; iBM; MmK#2` B Q7 KQ/2Hb m XXX- m ˆ B bm+? i? i, B
m(x) ˆ = M/ r2 ? p2,
1X (m ˆ k (x)) B k=1
U9V j9y
E m(x) ˆ = Em1 (x)
U8V
M/
jj8
Ç x i?2 Q#b2`p iBQM iQ T`2/B+ic
1 V(m(x)) ˆ = V(m1 (x)) UeV B h?2 #B b Q7 i?2 ;;`2; i2 KQ/2H Bb i?2`27Q`2 i?2 b K2 b i? i Q7 i?2 m ˆ k #mi i?2 p `B M+2 /2+`2 b2bX P7 +Qm`b2-j98 BM T` +iB+2 Bi Bb HKQbi BKTQbbB#H2 iQ +QMbB/2` BM/2T2M/2Mi KQ/2Hb m ˆ k BMbQ7 ` b i?2v HH /2T2M/ QM i?2 b K2 b KTH2 e
9XeXkX _ M/QK 6Q`2bi _2;`2bbBQM U_6_V _ M/QK 7Q`2bi Bb MQi?BM; KQ`2 i? M T `iB+mH ` # ;@ ;BM; K2i?Q/ +QMbBbiBM; Q7 M ;;`2; iBQM Q7 i`22b # b2/ QM ` M/QK p `B #H2bX JQbi Q7i2M- i`22b `2 #mBHi rBi? i?2 +H bbB}+ iBQM M/ `2;`2bbBQM i`22 U*_hV H;Q`Bi?K r?Qb2 T`BM+BTH2 Bb iQ `2+m`bBp2Hv T `iBiBQM i?2 bT +2 ;2M2` i2/ #v i?2 2tTH M iQ`v p `B #H2b BM /v /B+ r vX JQ`2 T`2+Bb2Hv-
i 2 +? bi ;2 Q7 i?2 T `iBiBQMBM;- T `i Q7 i?2 bT +2 Bb +mij38 ? p2 /Bz2`2Mi r2B;?ib # b2/ QM i?2B` Qp2` HH ++m` +v Qp2` BMiQ irQ bm#@T `ib ++Q`/BM; iQ p `B #H2 X j (kN)X i?2 r2B;?i2/ i` BMBM; b2i (j3)X h?2 T`Q+2bb Q7 / TiBp2 "QQbiBM; Bb T`2b2Mi2/ BM i?2 H;Q`Bi?K jX H;Q`Bi?K k _ M/QK 6Q`2bi _2;`2bbQ` U_6_V AMTmi,
Ç x i?2 Q#b2`p iBQM iQ T`2/B+ic
H;Q`Bi?K j / "QQbiBM; _2;`2bbQ` U"_V
Ç dn i?2 Q#b2`p iBQMc
AMTmi,
Ç B i?2 MmK#2` Q7 h`22bc
Ç dn = (x1 , y1 ), ..., (xn , yn ) i?2 b KTH2c
Ç m ∈ N i?2 MmK#2` Q7 + M/B/ i2 p `B #H2b iQ +mi MQ/2X 1 PB h(x, y) PmiTmi, h(x) = B k=1 R, 7Q` k = 1 iQ B /Q k, .` r #QQibi` T b KTH2 BM dn j, *QMbi`m+i *_h i`22 QM i?Bb #QQibi` T b KTH22 +? +miQz Bb b2H2+i2/ #v KBMBKBxBM; i?2 +Qbi 7mM+iBQM Q7 *_h Qp2` b2i Q7 m ` M/QKHv b2H2+i2/ p `B #H2b KQM; i?2 TX q2 MQi2 h(., k) i?2 #mBHi i`22X 9, 2M/ 7Q`
j8y
j88
jey
je8
Ç i?2 r2 F `mH2c Ç M i?2 MmK#2` Q7 Bi2` iBQMbXc PmiTmi, i?2 2biBK iQ` gˆ M (x) R, AMBiB HBx iBQM , M
g0 (.) = argmin f (x) = x
k, j,
9XdX "QQbiBM; K2i?Q/ AM i?2 bi i2 Q7 i?2 `i Q7 K +?BM2 H2 `MBM;- #QQbiBM; Bb T`QpBM; iQ #2 QM2 Q7 i?2 KQbi 2z2+iBp2 B/2 b Q7 i?2 T bi i?`22 /2+ /2b M/ +QMiBMm2b iQ #2 i?2 bm#D2+i Q7 #mM/ Mi HBi2` im`2 (jR- jk)X b i?2 M K2 BKTHB2b- i?2 ;2M2` H T`BM@ +BTH2 Q7 #QQbiBM; Bb iQ #mBH/ 7 KBHv Q7 KQ/2Hb i? i `2 i?2M ;;`2; i2/ #v r2B;?i2/ p2` ;2 Q7 2biBK i2b UBM `2@ ;`2bbBQMV Q` K DQ`Biv pQi2 UBM +H bbB}+ iBQMVX lMHBF2 i?2 #Qp2 # ;;BM; K2i?Q/- BM #QQbiBM; i?2 +H bbB+ H BM+`2 b2 BM bm#b2i +`2 iBQM Bb MQi ` M/QKX h?2 ;2M2` H B/2 Q7 KQbi #QQbiBM; K2i?Q/b Bb iQ i` BM T`2/B+iQ`b b2[m2MiB HHv- 2 +? i`vBM; iQ +Q``2+i Bib T`2/2+2bbQ` (j3)X h?2 T2`7Q`K M+2 jNy /2T2M/b QM i?2 T2`7Q`K M+2 Q7 T`2pBQmb KQ/2Hb b 2 +? M2r bm#b2i Bb Bi2` i2/ QM i?2 T`2pBQmb +QMi BM2/ 2H2K2Mib i? i +QmH/ ? p2 #22M KBb+H bbB}2/ #v T`2pBQmb KQ/2HbX /@ "QQbi M/ :` /B2Mi "QQbiBM; `2 KQM; i?2 KQbi TQTm@ H ` #QQbiBM; K2i?Q/bX jN8
jdy
jd8
j3y
Ç x i?2 Q#b2`p iBQM iQ T`2/B+ic
9XdXRX / TiBp2 "QQbiBM; _2;`2bbBQM U"_V h?2 / TiBp2 #QQbiBM; K2i?Q/ Bb # b2/ QM i?2 7 +i i? i M2r T`2/B+iQ` iQ +Q``2+i i?2 2``Q` Q7 Bib T`2/2+2bbQ` bBK@ THv T vb HBiiH2 KQ`2 ii2MiBQM iQ i?2 i` BMBM; BMbi M+2b mM/2` r?B+? i?2 T`2/2+2bbQ` ? b / Ti2/X h?2 `2bmHi Bb M2r T`2/B+iQ`b i? i 7Q+mb KQ`2 M/ KQ`2 QM /B{+mHi + b2bX9yy 6Q` 2t KTH2- iQ +`2 i2 M / "QQbi +H bbB}2`- +QMbB/2` }`bi +H bbB}2` i? i Bb MQi?BM; KQ`2 i? M /2+BbBQM i`22X h?Bb T`BKBiBp2 i`22 7Q`K2/ Bb mb2/ iQ K F2 T`2/B+iBQMb QM i?2 b2i Q7 7Q`K iBQMbX h?2 r2B;?i +Q``2bTQM/BM; iQ i?2 KBb+H bbB}2/ i` BMBM; BMbi M+2b Bb i?2M BM+`2 b2/X b2+QM/ +H bbB}2` Bb i?2M 7Q`K2/ # b2/ QM i?2b2 mT/ i2/ r2B;?ib9y8 (9k)X h?2 b2+QM/ +H bbB}2` ; BM K F2b T`2/B+iBQMb #Qmi i?2 i` BMBM; ; K2X h?2 r2B;?ib `2 i?2M mT/ i2/- M/ bQ QMX PM+2 HH i?2 T`2/B+iQ`b ? p2 #22M 7Q`K2/- i?2 b2i K F2b T`2/B+iBQMb p2`v bBKBH ` iQ # ;;BM; Q` T biBM; QT2`@ iBQMbX h?2 QMHv /Bz2`2M+2 Bb i? i i?2 `2bmHiBM; T`2/B+iQ`b9Ry d
1X L(yi , c) n m=1
7Q` m = 1 iQ M /Q ∂ * H+mH i2 i?2 QTTQbBi2 Q7 i?2 ;` /B2Mi ∂y L(y, g)Ƙ M/ 2p Hm i2 Bi i TQBMib gm1 (xi ) , " # ∂l(yi , gm (xi )) , i = 1, ..., n. Ui = − ∂g(xi ) g(xi )=gm−1 (xi )
/Dmbi i?2 r2 F `mH2 QM i?2 b KTH2 (x1 , U1 ), ..., (xn , Un )- r2 MQiB+2 hm i?2 `mH2 i?mb /2}M2/X 8, lT/ i2 , gm (x) = gm−1 (x) + λhm (x) e, 2M/ 7Q` 9,
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Capacity p − Occupancy p (t) Capacity p
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