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Interactions between technological and social changes
402
Technological and Social Change Interactions
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN TECHNOLOGICAL AND SOCIAL CHANGES A forecasting model Oto Sulc The more technically capable we become of achieving our desired ends, the more important it becomes to admit the normative element of technological forecasting. Consequently, definition of values and their change over time should influence those responsible for such forecasting. If an organisation is to be sufficiently adaptable to take advantage of technological innovations, then understanding likely changes in social values is an essential prerequisite. This tentative study uses the Delphi technique to compare the forecasts of computer technology with corresponding forecasts of their organisational control. the Delphi method obtains forecasts which reflect the considered consensus of a panel, each member having the opportunity to consider systematically and in isolation the views of the other panel members. From the present contribution, a three-dimensional model has been constructed which relates the interactions of technological and organisational change to the impact of technological innovations. First, in order to compose initial lists of potential developments both in computer technology and in organisational and social behaviour, forecasting literature was scanned. The results were presented as a Delphi exercise to a panel of eight computer scientists drawn from research institutes and computer manufacturers. The panellists concentra ted in each Delphi round on two questions, usually formulated in the following way: BRIEFLY,
• What is your opinion of the probability of implementation or widespread , diffusion of developments in computer control during each indicated period? This is part of a study, compl eted in 1968 by Dr Oto Sule with the Manchester Business School, UK. The author is now Scientific Secretary, The Futurological Society, Prague, Czechoslovakia.
FUTURES
September 1969
Technological and Social Change Interaction.r403
• Using the scale of neutral, minimal, moderate and high, please indicate how each computer development is relevant or contributes to the creation of the particular social impacts. After three rounds of questioning the median date of all time forecasts was used as an indication ofthe probable date ofimplementation, and the relevance scale was transformed into numbers 0, I, 2, and 3. All results have been arranged in Table 2. The second panel of experts, this time from industrial management and consisting of 45 members of the managerial and senior executive courses of a business school, was then asked to express its opinion on the likely effectiveness and generality of implementation of various organisational measures intended to help management adapt to computerisation. In the introduction to this questionnaire, the panel was informed in general terms about possible developments in computer control as forecast by the computer experts. The management panel was already familiar with the change in content of management functions likely to impede acceptance of the various innovations, and these did not need further amplification. Table I shows managerial opinion on the relevance of counter-measures that could mitigate the negative effects of developments in computer control. The numbered measures in the left-hand column represent various ways of influencing the behaviour of employees who will be affected by the introduction of changes in computer technology. The relevance numbers and dates of implementation express the median opinion of all experts involved, and therefore represent the average relationships which can be expected in British industrial or civil service conditions. This knowledge of the average effectiveness of interactions between variables is considered as the heuristic element of the method. "The forecast of a majority stimulates deeper thinking about the potentialities of a particular company in a realistic environment. The effort needed for identifying and applying suitable measures can be thus estimated and weighted according to the values of relevance indices . Measures with equal relevance can be regarded as having the same effect or importance. This knowledge could be useful if a company's resources are limited and it is desirable to obtain proper balance of effort. Reading down the table, for instance, shows that although middle management will be made redundant by the introduction of computer control technology, the impact can be lessened by training from junior levels to ensure flexibility and easy re-deployment. On the other hand, reading across the table, training from junior posts is more useful in mitigating redundancy than any other 'negative' impact. However, these suggestions indicate only a general approach to the problem. In practice a company's specialists must identify the more detailed mechanism and anticipated interactions, assigning a more precise and sensitive scale of indices to the particular variable recognised. The relationships between technological developments and their impacts are "expressed .by the relevance scheme of Table 2. Again; the way of reading the relationships between both groups of variables is similar to the previous table. The corporate planner can consider the relevance scheme as a simulation model for introducing likely interventions, and to identify their effectiveness FUTURES
September 1969
404-
Technological and Social Change Interactions
TABLE 1. RELEVANCE SCHEME OF INTERRELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CHANGES IN THE ADAPTABILITY OF MANAGEMENT AND EFFECTS OF DEVELOPMENT IN COMPUTER. CONTROL
Relevance in process technologies Effects of future trends in computer control engendering the resistance of management
tr;.~
.€-
,!!?
~i;
Measures improving the management adaptability to future trends in computer control
~$
f:Q.
","b
_0·ttr
Q~
0
it'! ~ '"
~ttr
.f:
0;;;-
o.~
:.!:!
0
0
-..I-{J ",.,
'"
0
",."
~
~E:
~§ f"b ... ~ "'0
.
Oc
.~~
0
~~ :::ttr ... ~
."g>
~
... '-
i!~
0
to
"ti~
" :§t Gg
"ti
.!;>
l·§- ...e
~g
e
§
~o
... "t:i ~;r;
co
~
b
~co
~~
ttr
"
~
:::.!E .:J ~
00
(:5:;::
-02
Oc _ 0 -"E "'0 -"_ 00. '-E 0.._
1. Training of operational management staff in computer application, throughout all aspects of the firm's business likely to be affected by computer technology starting from junior graduate posts
2
3
1
1
7
1970
2. Acquiring operational management staff so trained in computer application from outside the company, particularly from research institutes
2
0
0
1
3
1973 -74
3. Development and application of methods for. selecting computer system managers and scientists with appropriate intelligence and personal characteristics
3
0
1
0
4
-72
-4. Inter-company agreements on the transfer of displaced middle managers
0
3
0
0
3
5. Inter-departmental transfer of displaced middle managers to newly created jobs within a .company
1
3
0
0
4
6. Inter-departmental training and experience for middle managers before introduction of computer
3
0
2
2
7
7. Changing the social prestige Image from membership of the decision hierarchy to that of a technically-expert elite
2
0
1
0
3
-77
8. Greater adaptability of computer programmes to conform to the varying qualifications of operators and programme users (for example, by more flexible sub-programmes, and more natural computer 'language')
3
0
2
1
6
-72
9. Designing the technology of computer maintenance and service with the aim of employjng a greater number of semi-skilled operatives rather than a few highly skilled ones
3
1
0
3
7
1972 -73
10. Changing the social prestige image of managers in the environment as a whole, from decision and control functions to coordinating functions
0
0
2
1
3
1974
11. Facilitating and simplifying flow of information between: (a) highly specialised groups or departments (horizontal flow of information)
t
0
0
3
4
1973
2
0
0
3
5
1970
22
10
9
15
56
1971 never
1976
-77 1970
1976
1971
(b) between staff and line functions such as
systems design, computer personnel and operational management (for example, by the. Introduction of SUitably qualified liaison officers) Total relevance
FUTURES
September 1969
T echnological and Social Change Interactions
TABLE 2. RELEVANCE SCHEME OF INTERRELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN DEVELOPMENTS IN COMPUT ER CONTROL AND THEIR IMPACTS
Relevance in proce ss·technolog ies
Social impacts of "b
c:'"
computer control
c:
.~ c:
Ii
de velopments
'ti'"
~
~o
if;;;.
0"'--
&... ~
~
-.!2 ti1
Developments
g~
-:1 8
in computer control
r:::~
'" '" £2Q, '" 'b Q§
£2
..... 0
b ~
-5c:'"c:,
'" e a:;
It>'
e'"
-& '" E!
.c. i~ . .CJ.. .ff Vi g ()
~g
",;;;.'" .. It>'
o ti;
s -¥
() /g £2 c:'" .... 0£2 ~ 00c: f:!o .E! "' () :.~ Q.'b e o () ..§g -.1 -8 ~ ",-
-",
0"
~~ ra"'O~
","
-'"
.DE ra.,
.D-
oc. ~E
-:
aj
",'
1. Optical charact er recognition of uniformly styled types , leading to a reduction of 25% of current punch card personnel
2
2
0
3
7
1972 -73
2. Optical charact er recogni tio n of handwri ti ng and diffe ren tl y styled typ es
0
0
0
2
2
1977 -78
3: Aural reading computer input d evic es
1
·0
0
2
3
never
High spe ed stor es of vast capaci ty enabl ing non- stop op erating syst ems
0
3
3
2
8
1974 -75
5. Real ti me data systems becom ing universally feasible i n management (pro duct io n schedul i ng, inv ento ry c ontrol)
1
1
1
1
4
1973
6. Simplification of semantic and syntactic tendencies in the collection and dissemination of technical and managerial information
0
0
0
2
2
1973
7. Programming of all routine op erat ion al control deci si on maki ng
0
2
1
2
5
1971
8: Programming of advanced operatio n con trol decis ion making (optim ali sation)
1
3
3
2
9
1973 -74
9. Si mulation of long -rang e planning decisions
2
0
2
2
6
1979
10. Simulation of human thi nking i n symbo lic log ic (comput er as a general probl em solver, self -t each ing computers)
3
0
0
3
6
1985
10
11
10
21
52
I!:
J
~t
Total relevance
FUTURES
September 1969
0._
405
406
Technological and Social Change Interactions
over a forecast time period. Thus the measuring mechanism of relevance indices is giving orientation in different technological and organisational environments. Consider, as a practical example, the problem of assessing the significance of the rate of technological change on the environment as a whole. The greater the total relevance number of the computer development, the greater is the resistance or opposition of the human environment to technological change. Therefore the greatest and the smallest relevance numbers (9 and 2) can be considered as indicative of the slowest and highest rates of technological change in the field of computer developments. This rate of innovation is equivalent to the time period of the technological generation of-in the case of computer developments-valves, transistors and integrated circuits. Having obtained the information contained in Table 2, the corporate planner is able to correct the assessments of technological experts, because he can complete the envelope extrapolations of technological change by establishing its lower and upper time limits. His answer begins like this: In mitigating the negative social impacts against achieving most favourable conditions (the greatest total relevance number-g) we can mostly speed up the introduction oftechnological changes related to computerisation. According to the organisational adaptability of our company, the following corresponding counter-measures are available ... (see Table I). Table 3 is a general evaluation of the information from both previous tables. It can be considered as a three-dimensional model revealing in synthetical form the interactions of three variables-organisational changes, technological changes and social impacts. For greater clarity the original cubic model has been collapsed and all data have been presented in a two-dimensional arrangement. The central matrix in the model contains the relevance numbers transferred from Table 1 as positive numbers (because they express a positive influence on the adaptability of the company), and from Table 2 as negative numbers (because they express a negative influence on the adaptability). The organisational and technological changes are interacting (their relevance numbers are added up or subtracted) only when their implementation has been forecast for the same year. There are, of course, cases when the technological change makes only the corresponding change in social and organisational environment possible and vice versa. Further, there are some counter-measures missing, or some computer developments cannot be related to any of it. All this invites deeper and more critical thinking. The greater (more positive) a relevance number is, the better the organisation is prepared to accommodate the technological change. For a particular organisation, and particular technological and social environment, this information can serve as a guide for eliciting future threats and opportunities in the competition with the rest of the potential users of the given computer technology. Thus, for example, the absence of organisational measures in the period 1976-79 indicates that the computer innovations coming into operation during this period might be impeded by the unprepared organisational environment. There are many other ways of reading the suggested model. The overall purpose of the method is to reveal the future potentials in technological and FUTURES
September 1969
Technological and Social Change Interactions
social adaptability. Consequently the matrix can be linked with similar matrices of other related technological fields of a company, and with the assistance of a computer the advantage of the total systems approach can be provided. TABLE 3. MODEL OF INTERACTIONS BETWEEN ORGANISATIONAL CHANGES. TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES AND SOCIAL IMPACTS
Relevance af social impacts
-1
3 0 -1
-3_ 2
4
-3
7 0
0
0
...2
Q
-2
-2
-6
-2
1978 9
1979 1981) 1981 1982 1933 1984
11)
1985
-3
0
0
-3
-6
3
never
-1
3
0
-2
0
12
-1
-1
Total relevance
FUTURES
September 1969
I~
D
4
407
Technological and Social Change Interactions
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN TECHNOLOGICAL AND SOCIAL CHANGES A forecasting model Oto Sulc The more technically capable we become of achieving our desired ends, the more important it becomes to admit the normative element of technological forecasting. Consequently, definition of values and their change over time should influence those responsible for such forecasting. If an organisation is to be sufficiently adaptable to take advantage of technological innovations, then understanding likely changes in social values is an essential prerequisite. This tentative study uses the Delphi technique to compare the forecasts of computer technology with corresponding forecasts of their organisational control. the Delphi method obtains forecasts which reflect the considered consensus of a panel, each member having the opportunity to consider systematically and in isolation the views of the other panel members. From the present contribution, a three-dimensional model has been constructed which relates the interactions of technological and organisational change to the impact of technological innovations. First, in order to compose initial lists of potential developments both in computer technology and in organisational and social behaviour, forecasting literature was scanned. The results were presented as a Delphi exercise to a panel of eight computer scientists drawn from research institutes and computer manufacturers. The panellists concentra ted in each Delphi round on two questions, usually formulated in the following way: BRIEFLY,
• What is your opinion of the probability of implementation or widespread , diffusion of developments in computer control during each indicated period? This is part of a study, compl eted in 1968 by Dr Oto Sule with the Manchester Business School, UK. The author is now Scientific Secretary, The Futurological Society, Prague, Czechoslovakia.
FUTURES
September 1969
Technological and Social Change Interaction.r403
• Using the scale of neutral, minimal, moderate and high, please indicate how each computer development is relevant or contributes to the creation of the particular social impacts. After three rounds of questioning the median date of all time forecasts was used as an indication ofthe probable date ofimplementation, and the relevance scale was transformed into numbers 0, I, 2, and 3. All results have been arranged in Table 2. The second panel of experts, this time from industrial management and consisting of 45 members of the managerial and senior executive courses of a business school, was then asked to express its opinion on the likely effectiveness and generality of implementation of various organisational measures intended to help management adapt to computerisation. In the introduction to this questionnaire, the panel was informed in general terms about possible developments in computer control as forecast by the computer experts. The management panel was already familiar with the change in content of management functions likely to impede acceptance of the various innovations, and these did not need further amplification. Table I shows managerial opinion on the relevance of counter-measures that could mitigate the negative effects of developments in computer control. The numbered measures in the left-hand column represent various ways of influencing the behaviour of employees who will be affected by the introduction of changes in computer technology. The relevance numbers and dates of implementation express the median opinion of all experts involved, and therefore represent the average relationships which can be expected in British industrial or civil service conditions. This knowledge of the average effectiveness of interactions between variables is considered as the heuristic element of the method. "The forecast of a majority stimulates deeper thinking about the potentialities of a particular company in a realistic environment. The effort needed for identifying and applying suitable measures can be thus estimated and weighted according to the values of relevance indices . Measures with equal relevance can be regarded as having the same effect or importance. This knowledge could be useful if a company's resources are limited and it is desirable to obtain proper balance of effort. Reading down the table, for instance, shows that although middle management will be made redundant by the introduction of computer control technology, the impact can be lessened by training from junior levels to ensure flexibility and easy re-deployment. On the other hand, reading across the table, training from junior posts is more useful in mitigating redundancy than any other 'negative' impact. However, these suggestions indicate only a general approach to the problem. In practice a company's specialists must identify the more detailed mechanism and anticipated interactions, assigning a more precise and sensitive scale of indices to the particular variable recognised. The relationships between technological developments and their impacts are "expressed .by the relevance scheme of Table 2. Again; the way of reading the relationships between both groups of variables is similar to the previous table. The corporate planner can consider the relevance scheme as a simulation model for introducing likely interventions, and to identify their effectiveness FUTURES
September 1969
404-
Technological and Social Change Interactions
TABLE 1. RELEVANCE SCHEME OF INTERRELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CHANGES IN THE ADAPTABILITY OF MANAGEMENT AND EFFECTS OF DEVELOPMENT IN COMPUTER. CONTROL
Relevance in process technologies Effects of future trends in computer control engendering the resistance of management
tr;.~
.€-
,!!?
~i;
Measures improving the management adaptability to future trends in computer control
~$
f:Q.
","b
_0·ttr
Q~
0
it'! ~ '"
~ttr
.f:
0;;;-
o.~
:.!:!
0
0
-..I-{J ",.,
'"
0
",."
~
~E:
~§ f"b ... ~ "'0
.
Oc
.~~
0
~~ :::ttr ... ~
."g>
~
... '-
i!~
0
to
"ti~
" :§t Gg
"ti
.!;>
l·§- ...e
~g
e
§
~o
... "t:i ~;r;
co
~
b
~co
~~
ttr
"
~
:::.!E .:J ~
00
(:5:;::
-02
Oc _ 0 -"E "'0 -"_ 00. '-E 0.._
1. Training of operational management staff in computer application, throughout all aspects of the firm's business likely to be affected by computer technology starting from junior graduate posts
2
3
1
1
7
1970
2. Acquiring operational management staff so trained in computer application from outside the company, particularly from research institutes
2
0
0
1
3
1973 -74
3. Development and application of methods for. selecting computer system managers and scientists with appropriate intelligence and personal characteristics
3
0
1
0
4
-72
-4. Inter-company agreements on the transfer of displaced middle managers
0
3
0
0
3
5. Inter-departmental transfer of displaced middle managers to newly created jobs within a .company
1
3
0
0
4
6. Inter-departmental training and experience for middle managers before introduction of computer
3
0
2
2
7
7. Changing the social prestige Image from membership of the decision hierarchy to that of a technically-expert elite
2
0
1
0
3
-77
8. Greater adaptability of computer programmes to conform to the varying qualifications of operators and programme users (for example, by more flexible sub-programmes, and more natural computer 'language')
3
0
2
1
6
-72
9. Designing the technology of computer maintenance and service with the aim of employjng a greater number of semi-skilled operatives rather than a few highly skilled ones
3
1
0
3
7
1972 -73
10. Changing the social prestige image of managers in the environment as a whole, from decision and control functions to coordinating functions
0
0
2
1
3
1974
11. Facilitating and simplifying flow of information between: (a) highly specialised groups or departments (horizontal flow of information)
t
0
0
3
4
1973
2
0
0
3
5
1970
22
10
9
15
56
1971 never
1976
-77 1970
1976
1971
(b) between staff and line functions such as
systems design, computer personnel and operational management (for example, by the. Introduction of SUitably qualified liaison officers) Total relevance
FUTURES
September 1969
T echnological and Social Change Interactions
TABLE 2. RELEVANCE SCHEME OF INTERRELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN DEVELOPMENTS IN COMPUT ER CONTROL AND THEIR IMPACTS
Relevance in proce ss·technolog ies
Social impacts of "b
c:'"
computer control
c:
.~ c:
Ii
de velopments
'ti'"
~
~o
if;;;.
0"'--
&... ~
~
-.!2 ti1
Developments
g~
-:1 8
in computer control
r:::~
'" '" £2Q, '" 'b Q§
£2
..... 0
b ~
-5c:'"c:,
'" e a:;
It>'
e'"
-& '" E!
.c. i~ . .CJ.. .ff Vi g ()
~g
",;;;.'" .. It>'
o ti;
s -¥
() /g £2 c:'" .... 0£2 ~ 00c: f:!o .E! "' () :.~ Q.'b e o () ..§g -.1 -8 ~ ",-
-",
0"
~~ ra"'O~
","
-'"
.DE ra.,
.D-
oc. ~E
-:
aj
",'
1. Optical charact er recognition of uniformly styled types , leading to a reduction of 25% of current punch card personnel
2
2
0
3
7
1972 -73
2. Optical charact er recogni tio n of handwri ti ng and diffe ren tl y styled typ es
0
0
0
2
2
1977 -78
3: Aural reading computer input d evic es
1
·0
0
2
3
never
High spe ed stor es of vast capaci ty enabl ing non- stop op erating syst ems
0
3
3
2
8
1974 -75
5. Real ti me data systems becom ing universally feasible i n management (pro duct io n schedul i ng, inv ento ry c ontrol)
1
1
1
1
4
1973
6. Simplification of semantic and syntactic tendencies in the collection and dissemination of technical and managerial information
0
0
0
2
2
1973
7. Programming of all routine op erat ion al control deci si on maki ng
0
2
1
2
5
1971
8: Programming of advanced operatio n con trol decis ion making (optim ali sation)
1
3
3
2
9
1973 -74
9. Si mulation of long -rang e planning decisions
2
0
2
2
6
1979
10. Simulation of human thi nking i n symbo lic log ic (comput er as a general probl em solver, self -t each ing computers)
3
0
0
3
6
1985
10
11
10
21
52
I!:
J
~t
Total relevance
FUTURES
September 1969
0._
405
406
Technological and Social Change Interactions
over a forecast time period. Thus the measuring mechanism of relevance indices is giving orientation in different technological and organisational environments. Consider, as a practical example, the problem of assessing the significance of the rate of technological change on the environment as a whole. The greater the total relevance number of the computer development, the greater is the resistance or opposition of the human environment to technological change. Therefore the greatest and the smallest relevance numbers (9 and 2) can be considered as indicative of the slowest and highest rates of technological change in the field of computer developments. This rate of innovation is equivalent to the time period of the technological generation of-in the case of computer developments-valves, transistors and integrated circuits. Having obtained the information contained in Table 2, the corporate planner is able to correct the assessments of technological experts, because he can complete the envelope extrapolations of technological change by establishing its lower and upper time limits. His answer begins like this: In mitigating the negative social impacts against achieving most favourable conditions (the greatest total relevance number-g) we can mostly speed up the introduction oftechnological changes related to computerisation. According to the organisational adaptability of our company, the following corresponding counter-measures are available ... (see Table I). Table 3 is a general evaluation of the information from both previous tables. It can be considered as a three-dimensional model revealing in synthetical form the interactions of three variables-organisational changes, technological changes and social impacts. For greater clarity the original cubic model has been collapsed and all data have been presented in a two-dimensional arrangement. The central matrix in the model contains the relevance numbers transferred from Table 1 as positive numbers (because they express a positive influence on the adaptability of the company), and from Table 2 as negative numbers (because they express a negative influence on the adaptability). The organisational and technological changes are interacting (their relevance numbers are added up or subtracted) only when their implementation has been forecast for the same year. There are, of course, cases when the technological change makes only the corresponding change in social and organisational environment possible and vice versa. Further, there are some counter-measures missing, or some computer developments cannot be related to any of it. All this invites deeper and more critical thinking. The greater (more positive) a relevance number is, the better the organisation is prepared to accommodate the technological change. For a particular organisation, and particular technological and social environment, this information can serve as a guide for eliciting future threats and opportunities in the competition with the rest of the potential users of the given computer technology. Thus, for example, the absence of organisational measures in the period 1976-79 indicates that the computer innovations coming into operation during this period might be impeded by the unprepared organisational environment. There are many other ways of reading the suggested model. The overall purpose of the method is to reveal the future potentials in technological and FUTURES
September 1969
Technological and Social Change Interactions
social adaptability. Consequently the matrix can be linked with similar matrices of other related technological fields of a company, and with the assistance of a computer the advantage of the total systems approach can be provided. TABLE 3. MODEL OF INTERACTIONS BETWEEN ORGANISATIONAL CHANGES. TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES AND SOCIAL IMPACTS
Relevance af social impacts
-1
3 0 -1
-3_ 2
4
-3
7 0
0
0
...2
Q
-2
-2
-6
-2
1978 9
1979 1981) 1981 1982 1933 1984
11)
1985
-3
0
0
-3
-6
3
never
-1
3
0
-2
0
12
-1
-1
Total relevance
FUTURES
September 1969
I~
D
4
407