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New tools for the analysis of fire causes and their motivations: The Delphi technique
Forest Ecology and Management 234S (2006) S18 www.elsevier.com/locate/foreco
Abstract
New tools for the analysis of fire causes and their motivations: The Delphi technique Raffaella Lovreglio a, Vittorio Leone a, Patrizia Giaquinto a, Alessandra Notarnicola b a
University of Basilicata, Department of Crop Systems, Forestry and Environmental Sciences, Viale dell’Ateneo Lucano 10, 85100 Potenza, Italy b University of Bari, Department of Psychology, Piazza Umberto I8, 1 70122 Bari, Italy
Keywords: Anthropogenic phenomenon; Comando Stazione Forestale; Delphi technique; Geostatistics; Kernel density; Involuntary fires; Motivations; Panel of experts; Prevention; Voluntary fires
Forest fires are neither a natural calamity nor a fatality, but rather an anthropogenic phenomenon which directly depends on social behaviour, whether voluntary or involuntary. Despite the progress in knowledge about the physical facets of the phenomenon, its causes remain scarcely known or unknown. Causes are more diverse than is often assumed, and fire initiation is neither as random nor, in some cases, as meaningless as some analyses suggest. Understanding the reasons why fires start is a crucial factor when determining what to do to prevent or reduce their incidence, to mount significant prevention efforts and to design specific fire prevention campaigns. This is next to impossible if one cannot identify the causes of wildfires and if critical fire starting causes remain unknown. Given the increasing number of fires on a world scale, the current piecemeal approach to fire which concentrates mainly on fire suppression must be integrated with better and more efficient prevention, embracing a wide range of measures and activities that either modify fuels, or try to reduce the human
DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2006.08.034 E-mail addresses: [email protected] (R. Lovreglio), [email protected] (V. Leone), [email protected] (A. Notarnicola). 0378-1127/$ – see front matter doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2006.08.033
caused ignition risks and sources, also changing, when possible, human behaviour. A promising technique for improving knowledge about causes and motivations behind them is the Delphi technique, a study method of generating ideas and facilitating consensus among individuals who have special knowledge to share. The Delphi method uses a panel of carefully selected experts who answer a series of questionnaires. The technique has proven useful in extrapolating informed opinions in the absence of exact knowledge, as in the mentioned case of forest fires. With reference to some case-studies in the South of Italy, the authors describe the results of the integration of the Delphi technique with geostatistics, mainly fire occurrence maps obtained by kernel density interpolation of the fire ignition points. The integration of Delphi technique with fire occurrence maps allows a better knowledge of the phenomenon on a local scale, with the aim to identify its trends, concentration, dynamics and to put down proper and efficacious fire risk prediction/prevision methods.
Abstract
New tools for the analysis of fire causes and their motivations: The Delphi technique Raffaella Lovreglio a, Vittorio Leone a, Patrizia Giaquinto a, Alessandra Notarnicola b a
University of Basilicata, Department of Crop Systems, Forestry and Environmental Sciences, Viale dell’Ateneo Lucano 10, 85100 Potenza, Italy b University of Bari, Department of Psychology, Piazza Umberto I8, 1 70122 Bari, Italy
Keywords: Anthropogenic phenomenon; Comando Stazione Forestale; Delphi technique; Geostatistics; Kernel density; Involuntary fires; Motivations; Panel of experts; Prevention; Voluntary fires
Forest fires are neither a natural calamity nor a fatality, but rather an anthropogenic phenomenon which directly depends on social behaviour, whether voluntary or involuntary. Despite the progress in knowledge about the physical facets of the phenomenon, its causes remain scarcely known or unknown. Causes are more diverse than is often assumed, and fire initiation is neither as random nor, in some cases, as meaningless as some analyses suggest. Understanding the reasons why fires start is a crucial factor when determining what to do to prevent or reduce their incidence, to mount significant prevention efforts and to design specific fire prevention campaigns. This is next to impossible if one cannot identify the causes of wildfires and if critical fire starting causes remain unknown. Given the increasing number of fires on a world scale, the current piecemeal approach to fire which concentrates mainly on fire suppression must be integrated with better and more efficient prevention, embracing a wide range of measures and activities that either modify fuels, or try to reduce the human
DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2006.08.034 E-mail addresses: [email protected] (R. Lovreglio), [email protected] (V. Leone), [email protected] (A. Notarnicola). 0378-1127/$ – see front matter doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2006.08.033
caused ignition risks and sources, also changing, when possible, human behaviour. A promising technique for improving knowledge about causes and motivations behind them is the Delphi technique, a study method of generating ideas and facilitating consensus among individuals who have special knowledge to share. The Delphi method uses a panel of carefully selected experts who answer a series of questionnaires. The technique has proven useful in extrapolating informed opinions in the absence of exact knowledge, as in the mentioned case of forest fires. With reference to some case-studies in the South of Italy, the authors describe the results of the integration of the Delphi technique with geostatistics, mainly fire occurrence maps obtained by kernel density interpolation of the fire ignition points. The integration of Delphi technique with fire occurrence maps allows a better knowledge of the phenomenon on a local scale, with the aim to identify its trends, concentration, dynamics and to put down proper and efficacious fire risk prediction/prevision methods.