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News Preview 2019: Climate alarms ring louder
NEWS PREVIEW 2019
ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
From electric cars and artificial blood to new triumphs in artificial intelligence and grim climate milestones, here’s our pick of what to expect from the year ahead
Hurricane Michael flattened homes in Florida in October. You can expect more events like this in the coming year
22/29 December 2018 | NewScientist | 29
MARK RALSTON/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
CLIMATE ALARMS RING LOUDER
NEWS PREVIEW 2019
Californian firefighters work to control the Carr Fire in July
30 | NewScientist | 22/29 December 2018
1 Early in the new year, if not sooner, the world will set a most unwelcome record. Global oil consumption will pass 100 million barrels per day for the first time – and keep climbing. To have any chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions need to start falling now, and fast, the latest UN climate report warned in October. But emissions are still increasing. They rose 3 per cent in 2018 and look set to keep rising in 2019. Sure, the amount of renewable energy we produce is growing fast. But global demand for energy is growing faster. Just a quarter of the rise in energy demand in 2017 was met by renewables, according to the International Energy Agency, the body predicting the oil-consumption milestone. In other words, renewables need to grow much faster just to halt the growth in fossil fuels, let alone displace them. Such a step change requires either a massive rise in investment in renewables, or the imposition of a high price on carbon to deter fossil fuel use. Neither is on the cards for 2019. As emissions keep growing, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere will rise ever faster,
causing warming to accelerate. Unsurprisingly, 2019 is set to be one of the warmest years on record, perhaps even the warmest. Whether this record is set will depend on the strength of the El Niño climate phenomenon that is forecast to develop in the next few months. This sees warm water spread across the surface of the Pacific Ocean, temporarily boosting global temperatures. A strong El Niño made 2016 the warmest year on record; 2017 and 2018 were slightly cooler because there was no El Niño. However, the 2019 El Niño isn’t forecast to be as strong or to last as long as the 2016 one, so the year ahead might not quite top the charts. The coming year may also see atmospheric CO2 levels hit a new milestone. The global annual mean level of CO2 in 2018 is on track to be a little above 407 parts per million. In recent years, the level has been rising by 2 ppm in normal years and 3 ppm in El Niño years, when widespread droughts and wildfires increase CO2 levels. Depending on what a 2019 El Niño has in store, we could see the annual mean level in CO2 approach or exceed 410 ppm. Michael Le Page
“2019 is set to be one of the warmest years on record, perhaps even the warmest”
DNA ANALYSIS CRACKS COLD CASES
2
The net is closing on many criminals who have so far got away with it. Dozens of cold cases will be solved in 2019, as detectives tap DNA data used for tracing family trees. The potential of this resource has only recently been discovered. In April, police in California arrested a new suspect in the case of the Golden State Killer, who raped and murdered people in the 1970s and 80s. They identified a man using a website called GEDmatch that helps people use DNA test results from services like 23andMe and AncestryDNA to trace their family tree. If someone has left DNA at a crime scene, the website can be used to identify family members of that person who have DNA online, and narrow the search. This led to the arrest of Joseph James DeAngelo, and inspired Virginia-based Parabon NanoLabs to use the approach to identify 13 suspects in other crimes, leading to 11 arrests so far. The company is now working on more than 100 cases, and expects to use the technique to solve at least 30 by the end of 2019. Another US-based team, Identifinders International, says it is working on a dozen murder cases. Such investigations are only set to multiply. About 1 million people have uploaded DNA data to GEDmatch – enough to find third cousins for about 60 per cent of people in the US of European descent. About 1800 more add their DNA every day, so it won’t be long before nearly every such person in the US is traceable. And as users outside the US upload their DNA to GEDmatch, other countries will also be able to use it to solve crimes. Researchers at Stanford University in California recently developed a tool for linking genealogy sites with forensics databases, further strengthening the technique. By the time law-makers have decided how to regulate forensic genealogy and protect our genetic privacy, many more arrests will have been made worldwide. Alice Klein 22/29 December 2018 | NewScientist | 31
ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
From electric cars and artificial blood to new triumphs in artificial intelligence and grim climate milestones, here’s our pick of what to expect from the year ahead
Hurricane Michael flattened homes in Florida in October. You can expect more events like this in the coming year
22/29 December 2018 | NewScientist | 29
MARK RALSTON/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
CLIMATE ALARMS RING LOUDER
NEWS PREVIEW 2019
Californian firefighters work to control the Carr Fire in July
30 | NewScientist | 22/29 December 2018
1 Early in the new year, if not sooner, the world will set a most unwelcome record. Global oil consumption will pass 100 million barrels per day for the first time – and keep climbing. To have any chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions need to start falling now, and fast, the latest UN climate report warned in October. But emissions are still increasing. They rose 3 per cent in 2018 and look set to keep rising in 2019. Sure, the amount of renewable energy we produce is growing fast. But global demand for energy is growing faster. Just a quarter of the rise in energy demand in 2017 was met by renewables, according to the International Energy Agency, the body predicting the oil-consumption milestone. In other words, renewables need to grow much faster just to halt the growth in fossil fuels, let alone displace them. Such a step change requires either a massive rise in investment in renewables, or the imposition of a high price on carbon to deter fossil fuel use. Neither is on the cards for 2019. As emissions keep growing, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere will rise ever faster,
causing warming to accelerate. Unsurprisingly, 2019 is set to be one of the warmest years on record, perhaps even the warmest. Whether this record is set will depend on the strength of the El Niño climate phenomenon that is forecast to develop in the next few months. This sees warm water spread across the surface of the Pacific Ocean, temporarily boosting global temperatures. A strong El Niño made 2016 the warmest year on record; 2017 and 2018 were slightly cooler because there was no El Niño. However, the 2019 El Niño isn’t forecast to be as strong or to last as long as the 2016 one, so the year ahead might not quite top the charts. The coming year may also see atmospheric CO2 levels hit a new milestone. The global annual mean level of CO2 in 2018 is on track to be a little above 407 parts per million. In recent years, the level has been rising by 2 ppm in normal years and 3 ppm in El Niño years, when widespread droughts and wildfires increase CO2 levels. Depending on what a 2019 El Niño has in store, we could see the annual mean level in CO2 approach or exceed 410 ppm. Michael Le Page
“2019 is set to be one of the warmest years on record, perhaps even the warmest”
DNA ANALYSIS CRACKS COLD CASES
2
The net is closing on many criminals who have so far got away with it. Dozens of cold cases will be solved in 2019, as detectives tap DNA data used for tracing family trees. The potential of this resource has only recently been discovered. In April, police in California arrested a new suspect in the case of the Golden State Killer, who raped and murdered people in the 1970s and 80s. They identified a man using a website called GEDmatch that helps people use DNA test results from services like 23andMe and AncestryDNA to trace their family tree. If someone has left DNA at a crime scene, the website can be used to identify family members of that person who have DNA online, and narrow the search. This led to the arrest of Joseph James DeAngelo, and inspired Virginia-based Parabon NanoLabs to use the approach to identify 13 suspects in other crimes, leading to 11 arrests so far. The company is now working on more than 100 cases, and expects to use the technique to solve at least 30 by the end of 2019. Another US-based team, Identifinders International, says it is working on a dozen murder cases. Such investigations are only set to multiply. About 1 million people have uploaded DNA data to GEDmatch – enough to find third cousins for about 60 per cent of people in the US of European descent. About 1800 more add their DNA every day, so it won’t be long before nearly every such person in the US is traceable. And as users outside the US upload their DNA to GEDmatch, other countries will also be able to use it to solve crimes. Researchers at Stanford University in California recently developed a tool for linking genealogy sites with forensics databases, further strengthening the technique. By the time law-makers have decided how to regulate forensic genealogy and protect our genetic privacy, many more arrests will have been made worldwide. Alice Klein 22/29 December 2018 | NewScientist | 31