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Racial attitudes effects on voting in 2012: An introduction to the Symposium on the U.S. Presidential Election
Electoral Studies xxx (2014) 1e2
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Electoral Studies journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/electstud
Racial attitudes effects on voting in 2012: An introduction to the Symposium on the U.S. Presidential Election Herbert F. Weisberg* Department of Political Science, The Ohio State University, 2140 Derby Hall, 154 N. Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
a r t i c l e i n f o
a b s t r a c t
Article history: Received 8 September 2014 Accepted 29 September 2014 Available online xxxx
This Symposium on voting in the 2012 U.S. presidential election emphasizes the effects of racial attitudes. While voting was highly polarized along racial and ethnic lines in 2012, the Symposium articles agree that racial attitudes were not the dominant factor in the election. The articles show that racial attitudes had a wide range of effects on the election, affecting attitudes toward the Democratic Party, toward Barack Obama as a person, toward Mitt Romney, and toward the Tea Party, with heightened effects among Hispanic voters, but racial resentment does not explain the drop in Obama's support among whites from 2008 to 2012. As in 2008, race was only a subliminal issue in the 2012 election. Racial resentment still exists among some whites, but its effect was smaller than expected during a recession. Still, racial attitudes should be expected to continue to affect voting in the post-Obama era. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: 2012 Presidential election Racial attitudes Obama reelection Racial resentment Group voting
Race has always been an important aspect of American politics, and race still mattered when Barack Obama was elected the nation's first African-American president in 2008. Not only was his victory due to increased voting turnout and Democratic voting in the African-American and Hispanic communities, but there was also a large divide between the percentages of blacks and whites that voted for him. Additionally, numerous academic studies documented the effect of racial attitudes on the 2008 vote. Obama's vote percentage fell from 53% in 2008 to 51% in 2012, although that was still higher than the percentages that his immediate predecessors Bill Clinton and George W. Bush received in any of their presidential runs. As in 2008, voting was highly polarized along racial and ethnic lines in 2012, with exit polls showing Obama won 93% of the black vote, 73% of Asian-Americans, and 71% of Hispanics versus only 39% of the vote of whites.
* Tel.: þ1 614 431 9545. E-mail address: [email protected].
The articles in this Symposium show that racial attitudes also continued to be important in voting in 2012. However, a close reading of the articles in this collection reveals general agreement that racial attitudes were not the dominant factor in the election. Details differ between articles, but they find matters such as party identification, ideology, the economy, candidate image, and attitudes on the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) had effects that were larger, or at least as large, as those of racial attitudes. This is not to deny that racial attitudes had a wide range of effects. The articles show how attitudes toward the Democratic Party became more race-related in the Obama elections than previously (Jacobson), that they affected attitudes toward Obama's persona more generally (Pasek et al.) that they affected the image of Mitt Romney as well as Barack Obama (Clark et al.), and that they were related to support for the Tea Party (Bradberry and Jacobson) though Tea Party support is more deep-rooted than mere opposition to Obama (Rapoport). Where ethnic attitudes were most decisive was in Obama's tapping into shared racial/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2014.09.013 0261-3794/© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please cite this article in press as: Weisberg, H.F., Racial attitudes effects on voting in 2012: An introduction to the Symposium on the U.S. Presidential Election, Electoral Studies (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2014.09.013
2
H.F. Weisberg / Electoral Studies xxx (2014) 1e2
ethnic identity among Latino voters both in terms of policy proposals and perceived empathy to increase his vote among that growing community (Barreto and Collingwood). However, racial resentment does not explain the drop in Obama's support among whites from 2008 to 2012 (Weisberg). One reason that racial attitudes did not have a greater role was that race was generally a subliminal issue during the Obama elections. The economy became a major voting issue in 2008 when the country experienced a severe financial crisis during the fall campaign. Race surfaced explicitly that year only when Rev. Jeremiah Wright's fiery sermons came to light during the primary season, though the resultant controversy was largely diffused by Obama's well-regarded Philadelphia speech on race. Still, race was inherent in the election, hidden (see Mendelberg, 2001) under the larger rubric of Obama's “otherness” (e.g., Thomas et al., 2008; Zeleny and Rutenberg, 2008; Stevens, 2008), related to his middle name and claims about his birthplace and religion (Berinsky, 2010). Race was even less direct an issue in 2012, with the focus on the limited recovery from the Great Recession and Obama's controversial reforming of health insurance. While Obama's reelection campaign worked hard to mobilize black voters, Obama did not discuss race as an issue. He avoided playing into stereotypes of the “angry black male,” even when that meant coming off so cool, detached, and professorial that he lost the first debate to Romney. Mitt Romney followed John McCain's 2008 approach of avoiding racial issues, possibly calculating that making it explicit could lead to more vote losses than gains. The race issue was still present, sometimes blatantly (Goodale, 2012; Tavernise, 2012), and other times more veiled, as when Newt Gingrich labeled Obama “the food stamp president.” There was some blowback from a Republican National Committee ad (known as “long history”) that showed Romney with hard-working whites while claiming that Obama opposed requiring welfare recipients to work, but that ad was a far cry from the infamous GOP 1988 Willie Horton ad. While these articles agree that racial attitudes were only one of several important factors in voting in 2012, they show the continuing role of race in the election. Racial resentment still exists among some whites, just as some members of other races harbor anti-white feelings. As in
2008, the racial resentment of whites was partially balanced in the election by white racial liberals, by heightened racial pride among African-Americans, and by increased support among Hispanics. Obama's first term may not have led to the disappearance of negative racial attitudes among whites, but even the racialization of some issues during that term did not stand in the way of his reelection. Some studies have viewed the statistical significance of racial resentment in voting in the Obama elections as demonstrating that prejudice is a major factor in American politics. Yet the effect of racial attitudes was much smaller than might have been expected given the turbulent history of race in America. Indeed, its effect was even smaller than most social scientists would have expected during a recession that could have exacerbated whites' resentment against minorities who they might feel were taking jobs from them and/or were benefiting from government welfare. Racial attitudes should be expected to continue to affect politics and voting in the post-Obama era, but their effects are likely to vary in future elections as other AfricanAmericans as well as women seek national office. Acknowledgement This Symposium is based on the Mershon Center Conference on the Confirming U.S. Presidential Election of 2012. The support of the Ohio State University's Mershon Center and Department of Political Science is gratefully acknowledged. References Berinsky, A., 2010. Poll shows false Obama beliefs a function of partisanship. Huffingt. Post. 13 Sept. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ adam-berinsky/poll-shows-false-obama-be_b_714503.html. Goodale, G., 2012. Anti-Obama slogans with racial slants on the rise in election 2012. Christian Sci. Monit. 20 March. Mendelberg, T., 2001. The Race Card: Campaign Strategy, Implicit Messages and the Norm of Equality. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J. Stevens, J., 2008. Swing state blues. Guardian, 28 October. Tavernise, S., 2012. 4 Years later, race is still issue for some voters. New York Times, p. A1, 3 May. Thomas, E., Bailey, H., Wolffe, R., 2008. Only in America: the origins of his troubles with the ‘other’ tag. Newsweek, 5 May. Zeleny, J., Rutenberg, J., 2008. For Convention, Obama's Image Is AllAmerican. New York Times, 18 August.
Please cite this article in press as: Weisberg, H.F., Racial attitudes effects on voting in 2012: An introduction to the Symposium on the U.S. Presidential Election, Electoral Studies (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2014.09.013
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Electoral Studies journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/electstud
Racial attitudes effects on voting in 2012: An introduction to the Symposium on the U.S. Presidential Election Herbert F. Weisberg* Department of Political Science, The Ohio State University, 2140 Derby Hall, 154 N. Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
a r t i c l e i n f o
a b s t r a c t
Article history: Received 8 September 2014 Accepted 29 September 2014 Available online xxxx
This Symposium on voting in the 2012 U.S. presidential election emphasizes the effects of racial attitudes. While voting was highly polarized along racial and ethnic lines in 2012, the Symposium articles agree that racial attitudes were not the dominant factor in the election. The articles show that racial attitudes had a wide range of effects on the election, affecting attitudes toward the Democratic Party, toward Barack Obama as a person, toward Mitt Romney, and toward the Tea Party, with heightened effects among Hispanic voters, but racial resentment does not explain the drop in Obama's support among whites from 2008 to 2012. As in 2008, race was only a subliminal issue in the 2012 election. Racial resentment still exists among some whites, but its effect was smaller than expected during a recession. Still, racial attitudes should be expected to continue to affect voting in the post-Obama era. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: 2012 Presidential election Racial attitudes Obama reelection Racial resentment Group voting
Race has always been an important aspect of American politics, and race still mattered when Barack Obama was elected the nation's first African-American president in 2008. Not only was his victory due to increased voting turnout and Democratic voting in the African-American and Hispanic communities, but there was also a large divide between the percentages of blacks and whites that voted for him. Additionally, numerous academic studies documented the effect of racial attitudes on the 2008 vote. Obama's vote percentage fell from 53% in 2008 to 51% in 2012, although that was still higher than the percentages that his immediate predecessors Bill Clinton and George W. Bush received in any of their presidential runs. As in 2008, voting was highly polarized along racial and ethnic lines in 2012, with exit polls showing Obama won 93% of the black vote, 73% of Asian-Americans, and 71% of Hispanics versus only 39% of the vote of whites.
* Tel.: þ1 614 431 9545. E-mail address: [email protected].
The articles in this Symposium show that racial attitudes also continued to be important in voting in 2012. However, a close reading of the articles in this collection reveals general agreement that racial attitudes were not the dominant factor in the election. Details differ between articles, but they find matters such as party identification, ideology, the economy, candidate image, and attitudes on the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) had effects that were larger, or at least as large, as those of racial attitudes. This is not to deny that racial attitudes had a wide range of effects. The articles show how attitudes toward the Democratic Party became more race-related in the Obama elections than previously (Jacobson), that they affected attitudes toward Obama's persona more generally (Pasek et al.) that they affected the image of Mitt Romney as well as Barack Obama (Clark et al.), and that they were related to support for the Tea Party (Bradberry and Jacobson) though Tea Party support is more deep-rooted than mere opposition to Obama (Rapoport). Where ethnic attitudes were most decisive was in Obama's tapping into shared racial/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2014.09.013 0261-3794/© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please cite this article in press as: Weisberg, H.F., Racial attitudes effects on voting in 2012: An introduction to the Symposium on the U.S. Presidential Election, Electoral Studies (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2014.09.013
2
H.F. Weisberg / Electoral Studies xxx (2014) 1e2
ethnic identity among Latino voters both in terms of policy proposals and perceived empathy to increase his vote among that growing community (Barreto and Collingwood). However, racial resentment does not explain the drop in Obama's support among whites from 2008 to 2012 (Weisberg). One reason that racial attitudes did not have a greater role was that race was generally a subliminal issue during the Obama elections. The economy became a major voting issue in 2008 when the country experienced a severe financial crisis during the fall campaign. Race surfaced explicitly that year only when Rev. Jeremiah Wright's fiery sermons came to light during the primary season, though the resultant controversy was largely diffused by Obama's well-regarded Philadelphia speech on race. Still, race was inherent in the election, hidden (see Mendelberg, 2001) under the larger rubric of Obama's “otherness” (e.g., Thomas et al., 2008; Zeleny and Rutenberg, 2008; Stevens, 2008), related to his middle name and claims about his birthplace and religion (Berinsky, 2010). Race was even less direct an issue in 2012, with the focus on the limited recovery from the Great Recession and Obama's controversial reforming of health insurance. While Obama's reelection campaign worked hard to mobilize black voters, Obama did not discuss race as an issue. He avoided playing into stereotypes of the “angry black male,” even when that meant coming off so cool, detached, and professorial that he lost the first debate to Romney. Mitt Romney followed John McCain's 2008 approach of avoiding racial issues, possibly calculating that making it explicit could lead to more vote losses than gains. The race issue was still present, sometimes blatantly (Goodale, 2012; Tavernise, 2012), and other times more veiled, as when Newt Gingrich labeled Obama “the food stamp president.” There was some blowback from a Republican National Committee ad (known as “long history”) that showed Romney with hard-working whites while claiming that Obama opposed requiring welfare recipients to work, but that ad was a far cry from the infamous GOP 1988 Willie Horton ad. While these articles agree that racial attitudes were only one of several important factors in voting in 2012, they show the continuing role of race in the election. Racial resentment still exists among some whites, just as some members of other races harbor anti-white feelings. As in
2008, the racial resentment of whites was partially balanced in the election by white racial liberals, by heightened racial pride among African-Americans, and by increased support among Hispanics. Obama's first term may not have led to the disappearance of negative racial attitudes among whites, but even the racialization of some issues during that term did not stand in the way of his reelection. Some studies have viewed the statistical significance of racial resentment in voting in the Obama elections as demonstrating that prejudice is a major factor in American politics. Yet the effect of racial attitudes was much smaller than might have been expected given the turbulent history of race in America. Indeed, its effect was even smaller than most social scientists would have expected during a recession that could have exacerbated whites' resentment against minorities who they might feel were taking jobs from them and/or were benefiting from government welfare. Racial attitudes should be expected to continue to affect politics and voting in the post-Obama era, but their effects are likely to vary in future elections as other AfricanAmericans as well as women seek national office. Acknowledgement This Symposium is based on the Mershon Center Conference on the Confirming U.S. Presidential Election of 2012. The support of the Ohio State University's Mershon Center and Department of Political Science is gratefully acknowledged. References Berinsky, A., 2010. Poll shows false Obama beliefs a function of partisanship. Huffingt. Post. 13 Sept. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ adam-berinsky/poll-shows-false-obama-be_b_714503.html. Goodale, G., 2012. Anti-Obama slogans with racial slants on the rise in election 2012. Christian Sci. Monit. 20 March. Mendelberg, T., 2001. The Race Card: Campaign Strategy, Implicit Messages and the Norm of Equality. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J. Stevens, J., 2008. Swing state blues. Guardian, 28 October. Tavernise, S., 2012. 4 Years later, race is still issue for some voters. New York Times, p. A1, 3 May. Thomas, E., Bailey, H., Wolffe, R., 2008. Only in America: the origins of his troubles with the ‘other’ tag. Newsweek, 5 May. Zeleny, J., Rutenberg, J., 2008. For Convention, Obama's Image Is AllAmerican. New York Times, 18 August.
Please cite this article in press as: Weisberg, H.F., Racial attitudes effects on voting in 2012: An introduction to the Symposium on the U.S. Presidential Election, Electoral Studies (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2014.09.013