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Scenario Analysis in the Management of Technogenic Safety
IFAC Conference on Manufacturing Modelling, IFAC Conference Manufacturing Modelling, Management and on Control IFAC Conference Manufacturing Modelling, Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Management and on Control June 28-30, 2016. Troyes, France Management and Control June 28-30, 2016. Troyes, France June 28-30, 2016. Troyes, France
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Scenario Analysis in the Management of Technogenic Safety Scenario of Safety Scenario Analysis Analysis in in *the the Management Management of* Technogenic Technogenic Safety ** * V. Kul'ba*, O. Zaikin**, A. Shelkov*, I. Chernov* V. Kul'ba**, O. Zaikin** , A. Shelkov*, I. Chernov* V. Kul'ba , O. Zaikin**, A. Shelkov*, I. Chernov* * V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences * Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences * * V.A. Trapeznikov Moscow, Russia (Tel: +7 495 334 9009; e-mail: [email protected]). V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences ** Moscow, Russia (Tel: +7 495 334 9009; e-mail: [email protected]). Warsaw School of Computer Science Moscow, Russia (Tel: +7 495 334 9009; e-mail: [email protected]). ** Warsaw(e-mail: School of Computer Science **Poland Warsaw,** Warsaw School [email protected]) of Computer Science Warsaw, Poland (e-mail: [email protected]) Warsaw, Poland (e-mail: [email protected])
Abstract: This paper analyses the effectiveness of the methods of scenario analysis and modeling to Abstract: Thisofpaper analyses the effectiveness themeasures methods of scenario and to solve the tasks planning and operational controlof andanalysis eliminate themodeling causes and analyses the effectiveness ofthe the methodstoofprevent scenario analysis and modeling to Abstract: Thisofpaper solve the tasks planning and operational control the measures to prevent and eliminate the causes and effectsthe of tasks man-made disasters emergencies. solve of planning andand operational control the measures to prevent and eliminate the causes and effects of man-made disasters and emergencies. effects man-made disasters and emergencies. © 2016,ofIFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: management, scenario analysis, man-made disaster, emergency simulation, symbolic graphs, Keywords: management, scenario analysis, man-made disaster, emergency simulation, symbolic graphs, . subway station Keywords: management, scenario analysis, man-made disaster, emergency simulation, symbolic graphs, subway station. subway station.
1. INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION The last decades we are witnesses of a steady trend of signifiThe decades we are witnesses a steady trend of significant last growth in material loss as a of result of man-made disasThe last decades we are witnesses of a steady trend of significant One growth in material loss asfora this result of man-made disasters. of the main reasons situation is the lack of cant growth in material loss as a result of man-made disasters. One of the main reasons for this situation is to theliquidate lack of readiness of management systems to prevent and ters. One of the main reasons for this situation theliquidate lack of readiness of management systems to prevent andis to the emergency situations as well prompt, adequate effecreadiness of management systems to prevent and toand liquidate the emergency situations as well prompt, adequate and effective response to such events. the emergency situations as well prompt, adequate and effective response to such events. tive response to such events. In these conditions the control of processes of prevention of In these conditions the control of processes of consequences prevention of technological disasters and liquidation of its In these conditions the control of processes of prevention of technological disasters and liquidation of its consequences should cover the whole and rangeliquidation of problems relating to emertechnological disasters of its consequences should cover the (ES). whole range of problems emergency situations most important relating of themto the should cover the wholeThe range of problems relating toare emergency situations (ES). Thesituations most important ofproactive them areplanthe forecasting of emergency as well gency situations (ES). The most important of them are the forecasting of emergency situations as well proactive planning and operational control of the elimination of the causes forecasting of emergency situations as well proactive planning and operational of theinelimination of athehigh causes and of control the disaster conditions of deningconsequences and operational control of the elimination of the causes and consequences of the disaster in conditions of a high degree of uncertainty (Arkhipova and Kulba, 1998, Kulba et al., and consequences of the disaster in conditions of a high degree of uncertainty (Arkhipova and Kulba, 1998, Kulba et al., 2015, Roberts, 2007, Schultz and Kulba, 2012, Schultz at al., gree of uncertainty (Arkhipova and Kulba, 1998, Kulba et al., 2015, Roberts, 2007, Schultz and Kulba, 2012, Schultz at al., 2013). 2015, Roberts, 2007, Schultz and Kulba, 2012, Schultz at al., 2013). 2013). 2. PECULIARITIES OF USING OF SCENARIO 2. PECULIARITIES OF USINGOF OF SCENARIO ANALYSIS IN MANAGEMENT 2. PECULIARITIES OF USING OFLIQUIDATION SCENARIO ANALYSIS IN MANAGEMENT OF LIQUIDATION OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS ANALYSIS IN MANAGEMENT OF LIQUIDATION OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS Planning and control of prevention and liquidation of emerPlanning and control of prevention and liquidation emergency situations of natural and man-made kinds areof Planning and control of prevention and liquidation ofclosely emergency situations of natural and man-made kinds are closely related to the advanced scenario analysis and forecasting of gency situations of natural and man-made kinds are closely related to the advanced scenario analysis and forecasting of alternative ways of their development. related to the advanced scenario analysis and forecasting of alternative ways of their development. alternative ways of their development. The main idea and the basis of the methodology of using the The mainapproach idea and theresearch basis of the behavior methodology of usingsysthe scenario of complex The main idea and in the basis of the the methodology of using the scenario approach in research the behavior of complex systems based on mathematical and a ofspecial typesysof scenario approach in research models the behavior complex tems based on mathematical and aofspecial type of graphs, as well as enhance themodels technology their developtems based on mathematical models and a special type of graphs, as well as enhance in the technology their development were first formulated 60s of theof century and graphs, as well as enhance thethetechnology oflast their developmentrepresented were first formulated in the 60sRoberts, of the last century and are in the works of F. J. Forrester, D. ment were first formulated in the 60s of the last century and are represented in the works of F.scientists. Roberts, The J. Forrester, D. Meadows and a number of other results preare represented in the works of F. Roberts, J. Forrester, D. Meadows and a number of other scientists. The results presented in this are theofdevelopment of theThe given methodMeadows andwork a number other scientists. results presented in this work are the development of the given methodology towards creation of formal methods for analysis and sented in this work are the development of the given methodology towards creation scenarios of formal methods for analysis and synthesis of alternative emergencies and techology towards creation of formal for methods for analysis and synthesis of alternative scenarios for emergencies and techniques of modeling and their automatic generation inand order to synthesis of alternative scenarios for emergencies techniques of modeling and their automatic generation in order to niques of modeling and their automatic generation in order to
improve efficiency of management by the elimination of conimprove efficiency of management by the elimination of consequences. improve efficiency of management by the elimination of consequences. sequences. One of the most important features of technological ES as the One of the most important features of technological ES as the domain area is sufficiently powerful procedural framework. One of the most important features of technological ES as the domain area is sufficiently powerful procedural framework. Its development and improvement areprocedural continuously conductdomain area is sufficiently powerful framework. Its development improvement continuously conducted on a number and of ways such as: are industry, transport, radiaIts development and improvement are continuously conducted on a number of ways such as: industry, transport, radiation,onchemical, power,such environmental, and public ed a numberfire, of ways as: industry,social transport, radiation, chemical, fire, power, environmental, social and public safety,chemical, security fire, of life, certification of potentially dangerous tion, power, environmental, social and public safety, security of life, certification of potentially dangerous objects, disaster of medicine, etc. This can significantly increase of potentially dangerous safety, security life, certification objects, disaster medicine, etc. This canofsignificantly increase the effectiveness of the methodology scenario analysis in objects, disaster medicine, etc. This canofsignificantly increase the effectiveness ofand the change methodology scenario analysis in the control of ES the traditional approach and the effectiveness ofand the change methodology of scenario analysisand in the control of ES the traditional approach technology modelsthe using. the control of ofsimulation ES and change traditional approach and technology of simulation models using. technology of simulation models using. The functional approach is widely used at present for the The approach is widely used of at present for the studyfunctional of problems of increase efficiency The functional approach is widely used at socio-economic present for the study of problems of increase efficiency of socio-economic systems For example, the choice of a one or a study of development. problems of increase efficiency of socio-economic systems development. Forfunctions, example, the choice of a nature, one or a few specific management by their systems development. For example, similar the choice of a one or isa few sufficiently specific management functions, similar byoftheir nature, is not effective in solving problems control liquinature, is few specific management similar byoftheir not sufficiently effective infunctions, solving problems control liquidation of the consequences of man-made ES. The main reanot sufficiently effective in solving problems of control liquidation of the consequences of man-made ES. The main reason forof this the need for a of broader, comprehensive analysis dation theis consequences man-made ES. The main reason for this is the need for a broader, comprehensive analysis of the synergistic nature of son forsituation this is thetaking need into for aaccount broader,the comprehensive analysis of the situation taking into account the synergistic nature of adverse processes and phenomena. This significantly expands of the situation taking into accountThis the significantly synergistic nature of adverse processes and phenomena. expands the boundaries of the domainThis and significantly thus reduces expands the effiadverse processes andstudy phenomena. the boundaries of the study domain and thus reduces the efficiency of the traditional approach. the boundaries of the study domain and thus reduces the efficiency of the traditional approach. ciency of the traditional approach. In addition, the traditional approach does focus on expert In addition,ofthe traditional approach does focus on expert assessment thetraditional situation in the management object. As a In addition,ofthe approach does focus on expert assessment the situation in the management object. As a result of it, the basic simulation model is formed or at least assessment of the situation in the management object. As ––a result of it, the basic simulation model isthe formed orsimulation at least its methodological core. As result of it, basic result of it, the basiccore. simulation model formed orsimulation at least – its methodological As–result of it,isthe basiccore. model is formed or core. at least its methodological In this its methodological As result of it, the basic simulation model is formed orexpansion at least –ofitsthe methodological core. Inanalthis case, a significant domain for complex model is formed orexpansion at least –ofitsthe methodological core. Inanalthis case, a significant domain for complex ysis ofa significant the situationexpansion in the first leads to problems of case, of stage the domain forthe complex analysis of thethe situation in the stage leads to the of assessing adequacy of first the model, as well theproblems validity of ysis of the situation in the first stage leads to the problems of assessing the adequacy of the model, as well the validity of borders and detail display ofthe themodel, processes. assessing the adequacy of as well the validity of borders and detail display of the processes. borders and detail of the processes. Availability of a display wide normative base allows cardinally Availability of a wide normative base allows cardinally change the approach to the formation of models ES develAvailability of a wide normative base allowsof change the approach to the formation of models of cardinally ES development. It is much more effective to form the model based on change the approach to the formation of models of ES development. It is much more effective to form the model based on aopment. comprehensive analysis of existing rules and norms and It is muchanalysis more effective to form the and model basedand on athen comprehensive of existing rules norms modify it basing on detailed information about the speathen comprehensive analysis of existing rules and norms and modify it basing on detailed information about the spethen modify it basing on detailed information about the spe-
Copyright 2016 IFAC 1267Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 2405-8963 © 2016, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Copyright 2016 responsibility IFAC 1267Control. Peer review©under of International Federation of Automatic Copyright © 2016 IFAC 1267 10.1016/j.ifacol.2016.07.689
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cifics of the object of study and the incoming operative information on the nature of the situation. Further, using this approach we present the results of a scenario study of man-made problems of ensuring security at subway. 3. SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF THE SUBWAY STATION SAFETY IN AN EMERGENCY SITUATION The process of modeling and synthesis of alternative scenarios for the situation is carried using the apparatus of functional iconic graphs. Mathematical model of the iconic, weighted iconic, functional iconic digraphs, i.e. oriented graphs, is an extension of the classical graph model. Besides digraph G(X, E), where X is a finite set of vertices, and E is set of arcs additional components are included in the model. In particular, we introduce a set of parameters of vertices V vi , i N X . So for each vertex xi we put corresponding parameter vi V . We also introduce the functional transformation of arcs F(V, E), i.e. for each arc we put a sign, weight or function. Substantially parameters of vertices are the key indicators that describe the state and dynamics of the situation (factors), the structure of the graph reflects the cause – effect relationship between them. The set of parameter values of vertices in the graph model describes a particular state of investigated situation at a particular time. Changing parameter values of vertices generates impulse and is interpreted as a transition of a system from one state to another. The impulse Pi (n) in the vertex xi in time n N is defined as the changing of the parameter in the vertex of digraph in time n:
Pi (n) vi (n) vi (n 1) . The value of the parameter vi at the vertex x is defined by the relation: vi (n) vi (n 1)
N
F vi , v j , eij Pj (n 1) Pi0 (n) .
j 1, j i
Here Pi0 (n) is the external impulse introduced into vertex ei at the time n. From these two finite-difference equations the equation for impulse in the studied process can be easily obtained: Pi (n)
ized program complex is developed. This program provides information support for the formation and study of alternative scenarios for emergency situations in order to assess the effectiveness of management decisions. This program automates also creation and modification of the graph models in drug-and-drop operation, the analysis of the model correctness (search of the cyclic structures and diagnosis of redundant paths between vertices), modeling of pulse processes based on sequence of user actions, representing of simulation results in graphical, tabular or text view, as well as the export of intermediate or final data in GIS of situational centers to control disaster management system. As the object of study a hypothetical ES is considered that is initiated a conditional explosion on a typical subway station deep location, the typical of the Central Administrative District of Moscow. It is also assumed that the number of people at the station at the time of a disaster corresponds to average workload and is about 800 people. Structural simulation model consists of three parts: 1) The model of safety of station and people; 2) Model of work stages of fire-rescue units; 3) Model of forces and funds raised for the liquidation of ES. Topology of unified situational model, which is the unification of the three previously discussed, is shown in Fig. 1. The study of processes of occurrence and development of an ES at the subway station on the integrated model the following basic scenarios are developed. Scenario 1: "Analysis of the spread of a fire caused by the explosion and its subsequent quenching process". Under this scenario, the situation is considered when at the first stage (before the arrival of fire-rescue units) fire-fighting is produced by the subway workers. Scenario 2: "The outlook for alternative ways spread of panic in the liquidation of emergencies". We consider the situation in which the occurrence of ES and fire causes panic among the passengers in the station. Panic substantially prevents work of the fire-rescue teams and search of injured. Scenario 3: "Analysis of the effectiveness of the fire-rescue services for ES liquidation". Under this scenario, the variant of the ES development is analyzed, when the strong and wellcoordinated actions of rescuers help reduce panic attacks. Scenario 4: "Assessment of possible losses if working escalators". The purpose of this scenario is the analysis of human losses among the passengers of the station as a result of ES.
F vi , v j , eij Pj (n 1) Pi0 (n). N
j 1, j i
Management of system development is modeled as the impulses applied to specific vertices of graph and changing in the structure. In order to solve practical tasks of scenario analysis on the basis of mathematical language of iconic graphs the special-
Scenario 5: "The assessment of possible losses if nonworking escalators". This scenario reflects the most difficult situation when broken escalators significantly slow down the speed of the evacuation of passengers. It is assumed that the speed of evacuation is 3 person / s, and the speed of evacuation of injured is 2 person / s.
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Using the normative base in the process of the simulation modeling allows in the generation of alternative scenarios to focus not only on qualitative but also quantitative indicators that is illustrated by examples in Fig. 2 and 3. The developed model can be expanded to include information about the route and possible delays in route to the subway station fire brigades, rescue and medical services, as well as information on the location of hospitals, basic social and potentially dangerous objects located in the vicinity of the considered metro station. 4. CONCLUSIONS The developed methodology of advanced scenario analysis allows to solve a wide range of control tasks of prevention and liquidation of consequences of man-made disasters and ES. The proposed methods provide the ability to complex
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multi-dimensional study of alternative options for the development of ES at the given target criterion under conditions of uncertainty. The main advantage of this approach is the ability to predict the behavior of the simulated object by generating alternative scenarios of development. This approach allows making conclusions about the most probable and appropriating directions for the development of dynamic processes, their stability, and other significant characteristics on the basis of information on the structural features of the objects. The practical application of scenario approach allows a comprehensive analysis of the current situation at a given time horizon, to form short-term and long-term forecasts of its development and plans to counter emerging threats, to assess the effectiveness and consistency of multiple distributed in time and space of strategic and tactical management decisions for the prevention and liquidation of the consequences of technogenic ES.
Fig. 1. Joint model of ES liquidation
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DESIGNATIONS
Fig. 2. Assessment of losses in non-working escalators (scenario 5, graphic form, qualitative results in logarithmic scale)
Fig. 3. Assessment of losses in non-working escalators (scenario 5, the quantitative results) 1270
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REFERENCES Arkhipova, N.I. and V.V. Kulba (1998). Emergency Management, Publishing House of the Russian State Humanitarian University, Moscow, 316 p. (in Russian) Kulba, V., Zaikin, O., Shelkov, A. and I. Chernov (2015). “Scenario Analysis in the Management of Regional Security and Social Stability”, New Frontiers in Information and production Systems. Intelligent Systems Reference Library, vol. 98, Springer, pp. 249-268. Roberts, F. (2007). Discrete Mathematical Models, with Applications to Social, Biological, and Environmental Problems, Pearson Education, 560 p. Schultz, V.L. and V.V. Kulba, Eds. (2012). Models and methods of analysis and synthesis of scenarios of socioeconomic systems, Nauka Publ., Moscow, vol. 1, 304 p.; vol. 2, 358 p. (in Russian) Schultz, V.L., Kulba, V.V., Shelkov, A.B., and I.V. Chernov (2013). “Methods of the planning and management of technogenic safety based on the scenario approach”, National Security / nota bene, 2013, no. 2 (25), pp. 198216. (in Russian)
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Scenario Analysis in the Management of Technogenic Safety Scenario of Safety Scenario Analysis Analysis in in *the the Management Management of* Technogenic Technogenic Safety ** * V. Kul'ba*, O. Zaikin**, A. Shelkov*, I. Chernov* V. Kul'ba**, O. Zaikin** , A. Shelkov*, I. Chernov* V. Kul'ba , O. Zaikin**, A. Shelkov*, I. Chernov* * V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences * Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences * * V.A. Trapeznikov Moscow, Russia (Tel: +7 495 334 9009; e-mail: [email protected]). V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences ** Moscow, Russia (Tel: +7 495 334 9009; e-mail: [email protected]). Warsaw School of Computer Science Moscow, Russia (Tel: +7 495 334 9009; e-mail: [email protected]). ** Warsaw(e-mail: School of Computer Science **Poland Warsaw,** Warsaw School [email protected]) of Computer Science Warsaw, Poland (e-mail: [email protected]) Warsaw, Poland (e-mail: [email protected])
Abstract: This paper analyses the effectiveness of the methods of scenario analysis and modeling to Abstract: Thisofpaper analyses the effectiveness themeasures methods of scenario and to solve the tasks planning and operational controlof andanalysis eliminate themodeling causes and analyses the effectiveness ofthe the methodstoofprevent scenario analysis and modeling to Abstract: Thisofpaper solve the tasks planning and operational control the measures to prevent and eliminate the causes and effectsthe of tasks man-made disasters emergencies. solve of planning andand operational control the measures to prevent and eliminate the causes and effects of man-made disasters and emergencies. effects man-made disasters and emergencies. © 2016,ofIFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: management, scenario analysis, man-made disaster, emergency simulation, symbolic graphs, Keywords: management, scenario analysis, man-made disaster, emergency simulation, symbolic graphs, . subway station Keywords: management, scenario analysis, man-made disaster, emergency simulation, symbolic graphs, subway station. subway station.
1. INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION The last decades we are witnesses of a steady trend of signifiThe decades we are witnesses a steady trend of significant last growth in material loss as a of result of man-made disasThe last decades we are witnesses of a steady trend of significant One growth in material loss asfora this result of man-made disasters. of the main reasons situation is the lack of cant growth in material loss as a result of man-made disasters. One of the main reasons for this situation is to theliquidate lack of readiness of management systems to prevent and ters. One of the main reasons for this situation theliquidate lack of readiness of management systems to prevent andis to the emergency situations as well prompt, adequate effecreadiness of management systems to prevent and toand liquidate the emergency situations as well prompt, adequate and effective response to such events. the emergency situations as well prompt, adequate and effective response to such events. tive response to such events. In these conditions the control of processes of prevention of In these conditions the control of processes of consequences prevention of technological disasters and liquidation of its In these conditions the control of processes of prevention of technological disasters and liquidation of its consequences should cover the whole and rangeliquidation of problems relating to emertechnological disasters of its consequences should cover the (ES). whole range of problems emergency situations most important relating of themto the should cover the wholeThe range of problems relating toare emergency situations (ES). Thesituations most important ofproactive them areplanthe forecasting of emergency as well gency situations (ES). The most important of them are the forecasting of emergency situations as well proactive planning and operational control of the elimination of the causes forecasting of emergency situations as well proactive planning and operational of theinelimination of athehigh causes and of control the disaster conditions of deningconsequences and operational control of the elimination of the causes and consequences of the disaster in conditions of a high degree of uncertainty (Arkhipova and Kulba, 1998, Kulba et al., and consequences of the disaster in conditions of a high degree of uncertainty (Arkhipova and Kulba, 1998, Kulba et al., 2015, Roberts, 2007, Schultz and Kulba, 2012, Schultz at al., gree of uncertainty (Arkhipova and Kulba, 1998, Kulba et al., 2015, Roberts, 2007, Schultz and Kulba, 2012, Schultz at al., 2013). 2015, Roberts, 2007, Schultz and Kulba, 2012, Schultz at al., 2013). 2013). 2. PECULIARITIES OF USING OF SCENARIO 2. PECULIARITIES OF USINGOF OF SCENARIO ANALYSIS IN MANAGEMENT 2. PECULIARITIES OF USING OFLIQUIDATION SCENARIO ANALYSIS IN MANAGEMENT OF LIQUIDATION OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS ANALYSIS IN MANAGEMENT OF LIQUIDATION OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS Planning and control of prevention and liquidation of emerPlanning and control of prevention and liquidation emergency situations of natural and man-made kinds areof Planning and control of prevention and liquidation ofclosely emergency situations of natural and man-made kinds are closely related to the advanced scenario analysis and forecasting of gency situations of natural and man-made kinds are closely related to the advanced scenario analysis and forecasting of alternative ways of their development. related to the advanced scenario analysis and forecasting of alternative ways of their development. alternative ways of their development. The main idea and the basis of the methodology of using the The mainapproach idea and theresearch basis of the behavior methodology of usingsysthe scenario of complex The main idea and in the basis of the the methodology of using the scenario approach in research the behavior of complex systems based on mathematical and a ofspecial typesysof scenario approach in research models the behavior complex tems based on mathematical and aofspecial type of graphs, as well as enhance themodels technology their developtems based on mathematical models and a special type of graphs, as well as enhance in the technology their development were first formulated 60s of theof century and graphs, as well as enhance thethetechnology oflast their developmentrepresented were first formulated in the 60sRoberts, of the last century and are in the works of F. J. Forrester, D. ment were first formulated in the 60s of the last century and are represented in the works of F.scientists. Roberts, The J. Forrester, D. Meadows and a number of other results preare represented in the works of F. Roberts, J. Forrester, D. Meadows and a number of other scientists. The results presented in this are theofdevelopment of theThe given methodMeadows andwork a number other scientists. results presented in this work are the development of the given methodology towards creation of formal methods for analysis and sented in this work are the development of the given methodology towards creation scenarios of formal methods for analysis and synthesis of alternative emergencies and techology towards creation of formal for methods for analysis and synthesis of alternative scenarios for emergencies and techniques of modeling and their automatic generation inand order to synthesis of alternative scenarios for emergencies techniques of modeling and their automatic generation in order to niques of modeling and their automatic generation in order to
improve efficiency of management by the elimination of conimprove efficiency of management by the elimination of consequences. improve efficiency of management by the elimination of consequences. sequences. One of the most important features of technological ES as the One of the most important features of technological ES as the domain area is sufficiently powerful procedural framework. One of the most important features of technological ES as the domain area is sufficiently powerful procedural framework. Its development and improvement areprocedural continuously conductdomain area is sufficiently powerful framework. Its development improvement continuously conducted on a number and of ways such as: are industry, transport, radiaIts development and improvement are continuously conducted on a number of ways such as: industry, transport, radiation,onchemical, power,such environmental, and public ed a numberfire, of ways as: industry,social transport, radiation, chemical, fire, power, environmental, social and public safety,chemical, security fire, of life, certification of potentially dangerous tion, power, environmental, social and public safety, security of life, certification of potentially dangerous objects, disaster of medicine, etc. This can significantly increase of potentially dangerous safety, security life, certification objects, disaster medicine, etc. This canofsignificantly increase the effectiveness of the methodology scenario analysis in objects, disaster medicine, etc. This canofsignificantly increase the effectiveness ofand the change methodology scenario analysis in the control of ES the traditional approach and the effectiveness ofand the change methodology of scenario analysisand in the control of ES the traditional approach technology modelsthe using. the control of ofsimulation ES and change traditional approach and technology of simulation models using. technology of simulation models using. The functional approach is widely used at present for the The approach is widely used of at present for the studyfunctional of problems of increase efficiency The functional approach is widely used at socio-economic present for the study of problems of increase efficiency of socio-economic systems For example, the choice of a one or a study of development. problems of increase efficiency of socio-economic systems development. Forfunctions, example, the choice of a nature, one or a few specific management by their systems development. For example, similar the choice of a one or isa few sufficiently specific management functions, similar byoftheir nature, is not effective in solving problems control liquinature, is few specific management similar byoftheir not sufficiently effective infunctions, solving problems control liquidation of the consequences of man-made ES. The main reanot sufficiently effective in solving problems of control liquidation of the consequences of man-made ES. The main reason forof this the need for a of broader, comprehensive analysis dation theis consequences man-made ES. The main reason for this is the need for a broader, comprehensive analysis of the synergistic nature of son forsituation this is thetaking need into for aaccount broader,the comprehensive analysis of the situation taking into account the synergistic nature of adverse processes and phenomena. This significantly expands of the situation taking into accountThis the significantly synergistic nature of adverse processes and phenomena. expands the boundaries of the domainThis and significantly thus reduces expands the effiadverse processes andstudy phenomena. the boundaries of the study domain and thus reduces the efficiency of the traditional approach. the boundaries of the study domain and thus reduces the efficiency of the traditional approach. ciency of the traditional approach. In addition, the traditional approach does focus on expert In addition,ofthe traditional approach does focus on expert assessment thetraditional situation in the management object. As a In addition,ofthe approach does focus on expert assessment the situation in the management object. As a result of it, the basic simulation model is formed or at least assessment of the situation in the management object. As ––a result of it, the basic simulation model isthe formed orsimulation at least its methodological core. As result of it, basic result of it, the basiccore. simulation model formed orsimulation at least – its methodological As–result of it,isthe basiccore. model is formed or core. at least its methodological In this its methodological As result of it, the basic simulation model is formed orexpansion at least –ofitsthe methodological core. Inanalthis case, a significant domain for complex model is formed orexpansion at least –ofitsthe methodological core. Inanalthis case, a significant domain for complex ysis ofa significant the situationexpansion in the first leads to problems of case, of stage the domain forthe complex analysis of thethe situation in the stage leads to the of assessing adequacy of first the model, as well theproblems validity of ysis of the situation in the first stage leads to the problems of assessing the adequacy of the model, as well the validity of borders and detail display ofthe themodel, processes. assessing the adequacy of as well the validity of borders and detail display of the processes. borders and detail of the processes. Availability of a display wide normative base allows cardinally Availability of a wide normative base allows cardinally change the approach to the formation of models ES develAvailability of a wide normative base allowsof change the approach to the formation of models of cardinally ES development. It is much more effective to form the model based on change the approach to the formation of models of ES development. It is much more effective to form the model based on aopment. comprehensive analysis of existing rules and norms and It is muchanalysis more effective to form the and model basedand on athen comprehensive of existing rules norms modify it basing on detailed information about the speathen comprehensive analysis of existing rules and norms and modify it basing on detailed information about the spethen modify it basing on detailed information about the spe-
Copyright 2016 IFAC 1267Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 2405-8963 © 2016, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Copyright 2016 responsibility IFAC 1267Control. Peer review©under of International Federation of Automatic Copyright © 2016 IFAC 1267 10.1016/j.ifacol.2016.07.689
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cifics of the object of study and the incoming operative information on the nature of the situation. Further, using this approach we present the results of a scenario study of man-made problems of ensuring security at subway. 3. SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF THE SUBWAY STATION SAFETY IN AN EMERGENCY SITUATION The process of modeling and synthesis of alternative scenarios for the situation is carried using the apparatus of functional iconic graphs. Mathematical model of the iconic, weighted iconic, functional iconic digraphs, i.e. oriented graphs, is an extension of the classical graph model. Besides digraph G(X, E), where X is a finite set of vertices, and E is set of arcs additional components are included in the model. In particular, we introduce a set of parameters of vertices V vi , i N X . So for each vertex xi we put corresponding parameter vi V . We also introduce the functional transformation of arcs F(V, E), i.e. for each arc we put a sign, weight or function. Substantially parameters of vertices are the key indicators that describe the state and dynamics of the situation (factors), the structure of the graph reflects the cause – effect relationship between them. The set of parameter values of vertices in the graph model describes a particular state of investigated situation at a particular time. Changing parameter values of vertices generates impulse and is interpreted as a transition of a system from one state to another. The impulse Pi (n) in the vertex xi in time n N is defined as the changing of the parameter in the vertex of digraph in time n:
Pi (n) vi (n) vi (n 1) . The value of the parameter vi at the vertex x is defined by the relation: vi (n) vi (n 1)
N
F vi , v j , eij Pj (n 1) Pi0 (n) .
j 1, j i
Here Pi0 (n) is the external impulse introduced into vertex ei at the time n. From these two finite-difference equations the equation for impulse in the studied process can be easily obtained: Pi (n)
ized program complex is developed. This program provides information support for the formation and study of alternative scenarios for emergency situations in order to assess the effectiveness of management decisions. This program automates also creation and modification of the graph models in drug-and-drop operation, the analysis of the model correctness (search of the cyclic structures and diagnosis of redundant paths between vertices), modeling of pulse processes based on sequence of user actions, representing of simulation results in graphical, tabular or text view, as well as the export of intermediate or final data in GIS of situational centers to control disaster management system. As the object of study a hypothetical ES is considered that is initiated a conditional explosion on a typical subway station deep location, the typical of the Central Administrative District of Moscow. It is also assumed that the number of people at the station at the time of a disaster corresponds to average workload and is about 800 people. Structural simulation model consists of three parts: 1) The model of safety of station and people; 2) Model of work stages of fire-rescue units; 3) Model of forces and funds raised for the liquidation of ES. Topology of unified situational model, which is the unification of the three previously discussed, is shown in Fig. 1. The study of processes of occurrence and development of an ES at the subway station on the integrated model the following basic scenarios are developed. Scenario 1: "Analysis of the spread of a fire caused by the explosion and its subsequent quenching process". Under this scenario, the situation is considered when at the first stage (before the arrival of fire-rescue units) fire-fighting is produced by the subway workers. Scenario 2: "The outlook for alternative ways spread of panic in the liquidation of emergencies". We consider the situation in which the occurrence of ES and fire causes panic among the passengers in the station. Panic substantially prevents work of the fire-rescue teams and search of injured. Scenario 3: "Analysis of the effectiveness of the fire-rescue services for ES liquidation". Under this scenario, the variant of the ES development is analyzed, when the strong and wellcoordinated actions of rescuers help reduce panic attacks. Scenario 4: "Assessment of possible losses if working escalators". The purpose of this scenario is the analysis of human losses among the passengers of the station as a result of ES.
F vi , v j , eij Pj (n 1) Pi0 (n). N
j 1, j i
Management of system development is modeled as the impulses applied to specific vertices of graph and changing in the structure. In order to solve practical tasks of scenario analysis on the basis of mathematical language of iconic graphs the special-
Scenario 5: "The assessment of possible losses if nonworking escalators". This scenario reflects the most difficult situation when broken escalators significantly slow down the speed of the evacuation of passengers. It is assumed that the speed of evacuation is 3 person / s, and the speed of evacuation of injured is 2 person / s.
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Using the normative base in the process of the simulation modeling allows in the generation of alternative scenarios to focus not only on qualitative but also quantitative indicators that is illustrated by examples in Fig. 2 and 3. The developed model can be expanded to include information about the route and possible delays in route to the subway station fire brigades, rescue and medical services, as well as information on the location of hospitals, basic social and potentially dangerous objects located in the vicinity of the considered metro station. 4. CONCLUSIONS The developed methodology of advanced scenario analysis allows to solve a wide range of control tasks of prevention and liquidation of consequences of man-made disasters and ES. The proposed methods provide the ability to complex
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multi-dimensional study of alternative options for the development of ES at the given target criterion under conditions of uncertainty. The main advantage of this approach is the ability to predict the behavior of the simulated object by generating alternative scenarios of development. This approach allows making conclusions about the most probable and appropriating directions for the development of dynamic processes, their stability, and other significant characteristics on the basis of information on the structural features of the objects. The practical application of scenario approach allows a comprehensive analysis of the current situation at a given time horizon, to form short-term and long-term forecasts of its development and plans to counter emerging threats, to assess the effectiveness and consistency of multiple distributed in time and space of strategic and tactical management decisions for the prevention and liquidation of the consequences of technogenic ES.
Fig. 1. Joint model of ES liquidation
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DESIGNATIONS
Fig. 2. Assessment of losses in non-working escalators (scenario 5, graphic form, qualitative results in logarithmic scale)
Fig. 3. Assessment of losses in non-working escalators (scenario 5, the quantitative results) 1270
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REFERENCES Arkhipova, N.I. and V.V. Kulba (1998). Emergency Management, Publishing House of the Russian State Humanitarian University, Moscow, 316 p. (in Russian) Kulba, V., Zaikin, O., Shelkov, A. and I. Chernov (2015). “Scenario Analysis in the Management of Regional Security and Social Stability”, New Frontiers in Information and production Systems. Intelligent Systems Reference Library, vol. 98, Springer, pp. 249-268. Roberts, F. (2007). Discrete Mathematical Models, with Applications to Social, Biological, and Environmental Problems, Pearson Education, 560 p. Schultz, V.L. and V.V. Kulba, Eds. (2012). Models and methods of analysis and synthesis of scenarios of socioeconomic systems, Nauka Publ., Moscow, vol. 1, 304 p.; vol. 2, 358 p. (in Russian) Schultz, V.L., Kulba, V.V., Shelkov, A.B., and I.V. Chernov (2013). “Methods of the planning and management of technogenic safety based on the scenario approach”, National Security / nota bene, 2013, no. 2 (25), pp. 198216. (in Russian)
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