- Email: [email protected]
The credit crunch could be a boon for irrational belief
EDITORIAL
Hard times make for soft heads A rational world view suggests that we are going to cling more to belief as the recession bites SCIENCE has allowed us to smooth over many of the natural ups and downs of human existence. We have predictable harvests, food on supermarket shelves, savings and pensions that will help us get through difficult times, and economies that provide most people with what they need to survive. Alongside these developments a rational, scientific world view has become the dominant mode of thought. Take the comforts away, however, and the rationality often evaporates too. When human beings lose control over their lives, they become more prone to superstition, spiritual searchings and conspiracy theories. Some of these losses of control are selfinflicted: studies show that people in risky professions – deep-sea fishermen and skydivers, for example – perform a greater number of superstitious rituals than those with safe desk jobs. Others, though, are a response to circumstances. For example, people living in high-risk areas of the Middle East, such as Tel Aviv, are much more likely to carry a lucky charm or avoid walking under ladders. A 2007 study showed that the growth rate of evangelical churches in the US jumps
50 per cent with the downturn of each economic cycle. The global downturn is no different: church leaders (and psychics) are now reporting brisk business. Uncertain times cause us to cast about more widely for explanations of our circumstances – and rational reasoning, alas, does not always come naturally when we are desperate for answers. It is ironic that science is revealing our modern, sophisticated, scientific world view to have a fragile hold on our minds (see page 30). But there are also lessons to be learned. First, we ought to be more understanding of seemingly irrational world views. Many psychologists now see
“It is ironic that science is revealing our sophisticated, scientific world view to have a fragile hold” irrationality as the default state of the human mind. No wonder the idea that life arose spontaneously has such a hard time trumping creationism: overcoming that “natural” perspective takes a lot of cognitive effort. Research into irrationality may also provide insights to help guide the treatment of those suffering from obsessive-compulsive disorder and related mental illnesses. The other lesson is more direct: be careful. In a recession, or any other time of uncertainty, you are more likely to make bad decisions. By all means play the lottery if it provides a momentary diversion from the gloom. But keep your head. However seductive and comforting the idea of a win, and however tricky your circumstances, playing the lottery is not a rational path to riches. Even if God did tell you this week’s numbers. ■
It’s not what we grow, it’s the way we grow it EUROPE has by far the strictest rules for the approval of genetically modified crops, but are they enough? Firms developing GM crops have to go the extra mile to convince regulators that they won’t damage human health or the environment – and that’s as it should be. Trials completed in 2003 showed that two herbicide-resistant GM crops were worse for farmland wildlife than their conventional counterparts. The most damaging aspect of growing these varieties was not the genetic modification itself, but the way farmers applied weedkillers. Now, as we report on page 10, a similar crop has been developed without the use of GM – yet it won’t have to undergo special trials to test the effects growing it will have on wildlife. This is illogical. Why not regulate all crops the same way? ■
Follow my leader WHEN it comes to Barack Obama’s popularity, are some of us just sheep following the herd? Yes, he’s got bucket loads of charisma, but we may be more susceptible to conformity than we imagine (see page 13). A recent study shows that we condition our opinions in reponse to those of others – when we agree with the crowd, we get a dopamine kick, and when we disagree, we feel like we’ve been punished. It’s a basic response that’s hard to resist. Once Obama’s popularity reached a critical mass, his success may have been inevitable. ■
What’s hot on NewScientist.com SPACE The next mission to the outer solar system NASA and European Space Agency officials will meet this month to decide between two missions to the outer solar system. Should they aim for Saturn’s giant moon Titan, or send a pair of orbiters to explore Jupiter and some of its satellites? Check out our guide to potential destinations. ENVIRONMENT Drought warning as the tropics expand Call it a planetary middle-aged spread.
Climate scientists say they now have evidence that the expansion of the tropics towards the poles is linked to the greenhouse effect. NEUROSCIENCE Theory of mind in teenagers They now have a good excuse for their emotional swings: their brains haven’t developed the neural capability to properly understand others’ point of view. TECHNOLOGY Cheap, efficient LED lights on the horizon The
fluorescent lamps that are replacing incandescent bulbs may not be with us for much longer either – a new way to make cheap and super-efficient LED lights has been found. BLOG Why insomniacs are ‘dirty’ Sleep hygiene doesn’t mean quite what you might think it does – it refers not to the state of your bedroom, but to the behaviours that influence the quality of your sleep. Our nocturnal correspondent explores the reasons for his own
insomnia, and wonders if it is an occupational hazard. PHYSICS Closing in on the dream of invisibility Watch our exclusive video to see a raincoat that makes you appear transparent, and a material physicists say could be used to make large structures like tanks disappear – by steering light around them. Find these articles and more at www. newscientist.com/article/dn16526
7 February 2009 | NewScientist | 5
Hard times make for soft heads A rational world view suggests that we are going to cling more to belief as the recession bites SCIENCE has allowed us to smooth over many of the natural ups and downs of human existence. We have predictable harvests, food on supermarket shelves, savings and pensions that will help us get through difficult times, and economies that provide most people with what they need to survive. Alongside these developments a rational, scientific world view has become the dominant mode of thought. Take the comforts away, however, and the rationality often evaporates too. When human beings lose control over their lives, they become more prone to superstition, spiritual searchings and conspiracy theories. Some of these losses of control are selfinflicted: studies show that people in risky professions – deep-sea fishermen and skydivers, for example – perform a greater number of superstitious rituals than those with safe desk jobs. Others, though, are a response to circumstances. For example, people living in high-risk areas of the Middle East, such as Tel Aviv, are much more likely to carry a lucky charm or avoid walking under ladders. A 2007 study showed that the growth rate of evangelical churches in the US jumps
50 per cent with the downturn of each economic cycle. The global downturn is no different: church leaders (and psychics) are now reporting brisk business. Uncertain times cause us to cast about more widely for explanations of our circumstances – and rational reasoning, alas, does not always come naturally when we are desperate for answers. It is ironic that science is revealing our modern, sophisticated, scientific world view to have a fragile hold on our minds (see page 30). But there are also lessons to be learned. First, we ought to be more understanding of seemingly irrational world views. Many psychologists now see
“It is ironic that science is revealing our sophisticated, scientific world view to have a fragile hold” irrationality as the default state of the human mind. No wonder the idea that life arose spontaneously has such a hard time trumping creationism: overcoming that “natural” perspective takes a lot of cognitive effort. Research into irrationality may also provide insights to help guide the treatment of those suffering from obsessive-compulsive disorder and related mental illnesses. The other lesson is more direct: be careful. In a recession, or any other time of uncertainty, you are more likely to make bad decisions. By all means play the lottery if it provides a momentary diversion from the gloom. But keep your head. However seductive and comforting the idea of a win, and however tricky your circumstances, playing the lottery is not a rational path to riches. Even if God did tell you this week’s numbers. ■
It’s not what we grow, it’s the way we grow it EUROPE has by far the strictest rules for the approval of genetically modified crops, but are they enough? Firms developing GM crops have to go the extra mile to convince regulators that they won’t damage human health or the environment – and that’s as it should be. Trials completed in 2003 showed that two herbicide-resistant GM crops were worse for farmland wildlife than their conventional counterparts. The most damaging aspect of growing these varieties was not the genetic modification itself, but the way farmers applied weedkillers. Now, as we report on page 10, a similar crop has been developed without the use of GM – yet it won’t have to undergo special trials to test the effects growing it will have on wildlife. This is illogical. Why not regulate all crops the same way? ■
Follow my leader WHEN it comes to Barack Obama’s popularity, are some of us just sheep following the herd? Yes, he’s got bucket loads of charisma, but we may be more susceptible to conformity than we imagine (see page 13). A recent study shows that we condition our opinions in reponse to those of others – when we agree with the crowd, we get a dopamine kick, and when we disagree, we feel like we’ve been punished. It’s a basic response that’s hard to resist. Once Obama’s popularity reached a critical mass, his success may have been inevitable. ■
What’s hot on NewScientist.com SPACE The next mission to the outer solar system NASA and European Space Agency officials will meet this month to decide between two missions to the outer solar system. Should they aim for Saturn’s giant moon Titan, or send a pair of orbiters to explore Jupiter and some of its satellites? Check out our guide to potential destinations. ENVIRONMENT Drought warning as the tropics expand Call it a planetary middle-aged spread.
Climate scientists say they now have evidence that the expansion of the tropics towards the poles is linked to the greenhouse effect. NEUROSCIENCE Theory of mind in teenagers They now have a good excuse for their emotional swings: their brains haven’t developed the neural capability to properly understand others’ point of view. TECHNOLOGY Cheap, efficient LED lights on the horizon The
fluorescent lamps that are replacing incandescent bulbs may not be with us for much longer either – a new way to make cheap and super-efficient LED lights has been found. BLOG Why insomniacs are ‘dirty’ Sleep hygiene doesn’t mean quite what you might think it does – it refers not to the state of your bedroom, but to the behaviours that influence the quality of your sleep. Our nocturnal correspondent explores the reasons for his own
insomnia, and wonders if it is an occupational hazard. PHYSICS Closing in on the dream of invisibility Watch our exclusive video to see a raincoat that makes you appear transparent, and a material physicists say could be used to make large structures like tanks disappear – by steering light around them. Find these articles and more at www. newscientist.com/article/dn16526
7 February 2009 | NewScientist | 5