The Difffusion of Industrial Robots in Sweden

C"p.."ght IFAC Rnl Tint~ Digital Con",,1 AI'I"icati<>n. GuadalaJ.n ~' ~'''''' 1985

SESSION 7 - RO BOT ICS

THE DlFFFUSION OF INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS IN SWEDEN J. Carlsson and H. Selg Com pulers and Electronicl Com million, Ministry of Industr),. Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract. The paper will pr esent a study of the diffusion of industrial robots in the Swedish industry during the 70's and a forecast for the 80' s . Co~a r i sons with the diffus i on of Ne - machi nes and CAO - systems are also shown . The role of the leading - edge companies for the diffusion process wi II be illust rated. Seven companies account fo r about 40 : of the total rob ot population in Sweden . The pape r also presents the results of a study regarding the fleKibility of indus trial robots compared to NC -machines . The fleKibility is measu r ed with re spect to production volume, batch size , nuniler of pa rt variations, operation cycle and re pr og r amming frequency . Based on this information conclutlons are drawn regarding What type of production , companies and indus try sectors that most I ikely can benefit from industrial robots . The use of industrial robots as well as other automation equipment ar e still concentrated to a few leading-edge companies . With this back ground the barriers for achieving a wide diffusion will be discussed as well as polic i es f or promoti ng the wide diffusion . Keyword~. Robots; computer- aided design; nlJllerical control; mac hin e tool S; manu fact uri ng pr ocess i forecasts; diffusi on i versat i I i ty .

INTROOUCT ION The shift from belt-driven to elect r ic motor- driven machinery is an eKample of a major technological change in manufactur ing that has brought forward spectacular improvements in productivity . For about a decade now another i"llor unt shift, perhaps the most significant since the beginning of the indust r ial revol ution , has been evolving at an ever -accelerating pace - the shift from r igid mec hanized to flexible automated manufacturing. The major force driving the new manufactu r ing technology is the rapid advancement of computer and mic r oelectronic technology . Despite the se r apid advances of computer technology, howeve r , the pr ocess of devel oping the new computer-aided manufacturing technology is evolutiona ry rather than revolutionary . During the 60 's and 70's the automation effort was directed towards va r ious stand-alone machines . Indust r ial robots (abbrev iated IRb),

machine tools (NC)I . materi al -handling equipment etc, began to be equ i pped with progranmab le control systems with a ra pid ly increasing degree of sophisticat ion. Now that the wide diffusion of these machines has sta rted to pick - up , the main target fo r the automation effort is to integ rate var ious machines i nto larger and larger systems . This is a ve ry complicated pr ocess which requires large invest ments in both capital and new management and technical skills. At the same ti me the greatest oppo rt unities for prod uctivity improvement lie in optimally inter connecting va r ious processes into computer- integ rated manu facturing systems .

1 The abbreviation NC will be used for both numerical cont r ol and computerized numerical control.

227

J. Carlsson and H. Selg

228

in the engineering indust r ies, and especially those subjected to strong international competition (automotive industry , compute r s and telecOIIIllUnication , consumer electroniCS, household appliances etc) , systt!ms integration is regarded as the key to survival in the 80's. Given the economic problems that roost indu strialized countries now face. productivity impr ovement is 11 main target of indust r ial policies. For this reason both Sweden and other countries have given high priority for promol i ng the development and the cl; ffus; on of lRb and computer- aided design/manufacturing (CAD/CAM) technology .

NEW MANUFACTURING ORGANIZATIONS Background

New manufacturing technology such as the IRb is, however, not just a matter of highly efficient computer-aided machines . In fact, it is mo re a mat ter of deve I opi ng new principles for organizing the manufacturing process. The systems-integration approach in manufacturing has also made it more urgent to develop more formal knowledge about the manufac turing process.

The objectives behind the new manufacturing principles are twofold: a) New manufacturing organizations can increase productivity without any new investments in hardware. Through shorter inventory cycles, lead times, set-up times etc there are great potentials for improving both capital productivity and cash flow. b) New manu facturing principles are often required in order to maximize the potential benefits from CAD/CAM. Mi~d

batch manufacturing is often described as "an activity of organized chaos": constantly changing mixes of products, components, materia 1, batch sizes , avai I abl e machines and operators , urgency of order, inventory etc . The essence of manufacturing management is therefore to so lve one "crisisM after another , using the solution most expedient at the time. In this context the cOllJluter has become the mos t important tool (but not the solut ion) to bri ng order out of this chaos . Manufactu r ing management , such as pr ocess planni ng and materi al reqirement planning (MRPJ. is particu l arly suitable for

computerization because it deals mainly with collecting , processing and distributing information . For this reason manufactu ring management and overall company man .. oement , including office administration, s ... :"" became prime targets for computerization. However , many systems for computer- aided process planning (CAPP) and mate r ial requirement planning (!>RP) failed to generate the results that management had been led to expect . Even if there were technical deficiencies in the systems, the main reason for the failures were that too much emphasis was put on the tool (that is, the computer system) itself aOO not on how the tool should be used. Translations from manual systems into software did not wort for the simple reason that the formal manual system did not wort in the first place. Instead companies used infonnal ad-hoc systems where the rules could be changed ra pidly to handle the many unp r edictab l e day - to-day events on t he factory floor. These flexible but unst r uctured methods of management were never picked up in the computer model. The companies ended up with a rigid computerized system which did not reflect the true manufactu ri ng process . Another reason for the failures was that the required input and output data often were neither timely nor accurate. The experiences from computerized manufacturing management and factory automation a re clear. The main barriers and bottlenecks do not stem from hardware and computer software but rather from the organizational structure of manufacturing . Much effort is therefore now being directed towards learning more about the manufacturing process in or de r to develop more realistic simulation models . P roduct- ori ented ma nufacturi n9 Du r i ng the 70 's inventory reduction has become mo re aOO more a prin-e target for i ndustrial pr oductivity pr ograms . This is by no way surprising if we consider that the va I ue of the inventory (supp lies + raw mdte r ials + work in process + finished goods) in the Swedish engineering industry is twice the value of all machines and buildings. By adopting new production methods , including computerized inventory control systems , it has been possibl e to red uce inventory by 2S~ or mo r e. The increased importance of a faster inventory turnover is al so reflected in the new methods of organizing batch production .

Diffus i on or Industrial Robots in SIJeden

For a long t i me the functiona l layout i n batch pr oduction, that is , al l machines of the same kind are gathered in gr oups , has been as natural as the transfe r line in mass production . Through the functional layout , IlIdchine utilization can be kept high , but at the expense of complex routing of parts through the shop and la r ge buffers and inventories. lead time is defined as the total time needed fo r IlIdterial to be pr ocessed i nto a finished product , The lead time is t hus the sum of net processing time and waiting time . In batch production with functional layout the ratio of net processing time t o waiting time is usually one to some hundreds , or sometimes one to some thousands . Thus , it is much easier and far more efficient t o try to reduce waiting time , which is a pr ocess that does not add any val ue to the product, than to increase the processing speed by more sophisticated manufacturing techniques . In the new manufactu r ing methods t he main pr inciple is to organize the factory according to pr oduct oriented l ayouts . All milchines needed to produce one product or one set of products a r e grouped together in a ~subfactory~ , sometimes with its own administration . Each worke r in pr oduct oriented layouts attends sever al machines . In the functional layout we can with some simp l ification say that the materials wait for the machines whi le the mach i nes in the product - or iented layout wait for the mate r ials . The l ea d ti me can t hereby be reduced dr amatically . for instance in the middle of the 70's one sector in the Swedish elect r ical company ASEA switched to product oriented layout . This r esulted in a reduction of lead time from 6- 8 weeks to one hour . The recent increase in inte rest rates has tended to raise even fu r ther the relative importance of a more rapid inve nto ry turnover , THE IMPORTANCE OF LEADING -EDGE COMPANIES IN THE OIFFUSION OF NEW MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY The diffusion of new manufacturing processes among potential user firms is gene r ally a s low pr ocess . Lags of 20- 25 years between first and last adopte r s a r e COOJTlon . For the purpose of analysis it is pr actical to divide the diffus i on pr oc ess into t wo steps ; fi r st diffusion and wide

229

diff usion . The r eason fo r this is that the fi r st adopte r s - the technically leadingedge use r s - exercise a strategic role in detenllining the speed and direc t ion for the subsequent diffusion . The results and exper iences f r an fi rst adapters may serve as important information to later adopte r s, thus r educing their risk. The l eading - edge companies are watched by a second gr oup of fairly technically advanced and f i nancially st r ong companies. If the leaders successfu Ily apply the new tech nology it will soon be diffused to the companies in the second group . Frcwn this group the techno l ogy will then successive ly be diffused to industry as a whole via a third, fourth • . etc group of companies . The process of development and diffusion of a new manufacturing system is modelled in fi gure 1. The aim of increased productivity in industry is realized pr imarily through the wide di f fusion . The leading-edge comp.anies are important because they sta rt the diffusion pr ocess . But it is the speed of the wide diffusion that determi nes what productivity gains can be achieved on an agg r egate level. in the Swedish engineering industries six main leading- edge cOlJl)anies can be identified with respect to the use of IRb and CAD/CAM. These companies are: Ericsson , ASEA , Vol vo , Sandvi k. Saab-Scani a and El ectrolu x. In 1979 these compa nies accounted fo r 25% of the total NC - stock , 401 of t he total lRb- stock and for nearly 50% of the total number of insta l led CAD - systems , The r eason why the NC-share of these companies is considerably lower than the cor responding share for IRb och CAO is that NC technology can now be regarded as mature and thus has already started to be diffused in industry as a whole. IRb and CAD on the other hand have just begun the phase of wide diffus i on . THE OIFFUSION OF INOUSTRIAL ROBOTS IN THE SWEDISH INDUSTRY Swedi sh indust ry started to invest in IRb at the end of the 1960's . By 1970 the number of IRb installed amounted to 50. At this time a very rapid diffusion of IRb was pr edicted. In 1972 experts c l aimed that by the end of the decade there would be 25 000 IRb installed in Sweden . The actual outcome

130

J. Carlsson and H.

Scl~

Technical develop-

--

Prototype

First

Pilot

application (innovation)

- -i

system

ment

(invention )

Develo pment steps

Demon -

Fi rst adapters

strati on system

I- --

Diffusion

steps

1 Late r adapters

Fi g. 1.

The steps in the development and diffusion of Cl new manufacturing system.

of 40%. per year and a stock of 1 000 IRb is imp ress j ye. Few at her investment goods ca n show a growth rate of similar magnitude . Besides, consideri n9 the size of the economy Sweden probably has the highest IRb density in in the world .

was d growth rate of about 40% per year on average and an installed IRb-stock of nearly 1000 units (1979), see table 1. We

ment ion this forecast because it is a good

example of how the barriers to the wide diffusion of a new technology are often underest imated . In any case, a growth rate

Number of Installed IRb in Sweden 1970 - 1979 and Forecast for the 80 's

TABLE

1970

19 73

The 7 largest IRb- use rs

30 (55) )

85

310

420

(63))

(63))

(45))

The rest of industry

25 (45%)

50

180 (J7<)

520 (55%)

1 500

(37<)

55

135

490

940

2 300

Tota I

,

Ave ra ge yearly 9 r owth .

35

1977

38

1979

beginni ng of t he 90's

Comp any groups

39

1984

20

Source: Compute rs and Elect r onics Corrrnission

800 (3" ) (65% )

6 000 - 9 000

17 - 26

Oiffusion of Industrial Robots in Swed en

231

THE OIFFUS ION OF NC -MACHINES PIlD CAD -SYSTEMS

According t o a mo re recent study the !Rb stocio: in september 1981 was esti ma ted to 1 250 .

NC - mac hi nes Table 1 also shows that the use of [ Rb so far has been concentrated to a fe w large companies . The 7 largest IRb- use rs accounted in 1979 for nearly half the total [Rb-stoc io: .

NC-technique was i ntroduced in Swedish indus try around 1960. In 1970 the total NC - stocio: amounted to about 500 units, see table 2.

During the 80's the IRb - stock wi 11 continue to e;.:;pand rapidly. The net growth rate, however, will not continue to be 40~ per yea r but rather in the order of 20: . The r e are several reasons that justify a lower gr owth r ate in the 80's compa red t o the 70 's: a) b) c)

Du r ing the 70's the NC - stock. increased on average by 25 ~ per year and in 1979 the numbe r of units was about 3 600 . As can be seen from table 2 , the use of NC - machines during the 70 ' s was largely confined to a few la rge companies . In 1970 , 15 companies accounted for 70% of the total NC -st oclo:. In 1979 the share for these compan; es had dec reased to about 40%. Now that the phase of "wide diffusion" has cOlTlllenced , it is mainly the small and med ium si zed compani es that accoun t for the increase in the stocio:.

Growth is calculated from a much higher I evel of stock . The "easiest" installations will al ready have been done . There are other automation alternatives besides general pu r pose IRb. No doubt there are great potentials to automate , for instance , assembly and inspection oper ations with sensor-equipped !Rb. However , corrp ut er-aided special pur pose assembly machines, redesign of prod ucts and components or new mate r ials may in many situations be the most advantageous solution to impr ove the efficiency of assemb l y operations .

TABLE 2

Du r ing the 80 ' s the growth r ate of the NC stock wi 11 decrease. This is natural for a technique that has matu r ed and become "a conventional" technique. There are however two other strong reasons for the decreasing growth ra te : a)

An increasing share of the NC - invest ments consists of machining centers,

Number of I nsta 11 ed NC - machi nes in Sweden 1970 - 1979 and Forecast for the 80 ' s

1976

1979

1984

(ml

340

670 ( 63 ' 1

1 170 (56)1

1 490 (41 ' I

2 030 (34:1

140 (29%1

390 (37 %)

930 (4"1

2 160 (59%1

3 980 (66' 1

060

2 100

3 650

6 010

1970

The 15 largest NC-us ers The rest of industry Tota l Ave rage yearly growth , ••

beg i nni ng of the 90's

1973

Company gr oups

480 30

26

20

II

Sou rce: Computers and Electronics Commission

8 000-13 000

7 - 12

J . Carlsson and H. Selg

232

each having a capacity of at least three conventional Ne-machines . b)

CAD results not only in higher productivity in the desi gn process but al so, and especially through the integration of CAM , in h i gher over- all factory productivity.

Ne-machines are successively being integrated into manufacturing systems which are operated in two or three shifts, which considerably increases the degree of utilization.

CAD-systems were introduced in Swed ish industry in the middle of the 70 's. So far it is mainly big corporations, especially in the electronics industry, which have invested in CAD. In 1979 the number of CAD system (mini- and general purpose computer systems, not desk - top models) arrounted t o 60, representing a total investment of about 130 million Skr, see table 3.

For these reasons, growth rates expressed in terms of the number of units strongly underestimate the growth rate of the total prOduction volume that stems from Nemachines . CAD - systems

About 200 CAD-systems are expected to have been installed in the Swedish industry by 1 984.

During the first 70 years of the 20th century. design work. was not affected by any significant technical change . The drawingboa rd, slide-rule. ruler and hand-book.s were the main tools. While the productivity of the manufactu ring process, due to new technologies, increased in the order of 1 000% , the productivity increase in the design pr ocess has been estimated at only about 20% .

THE ACTUAL VERSATILITY OF INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS IN COMPARISON TO NC-MACHINES In 1979 a survey of installations of f(; machines and ro bots was undertaken by the Computers and Electronics COl1lllission in order to examine the nature of the manufacturing process related to these installations. Data were collected regading

With the computer-aided design system a technical breakthrough has occurred which promises large potentials for productivity improvements . St udies that we and others have made of Swedish industry show that the hi ghest p roduct i vity improvements are realized in connection with new product and component design and not as a result of investments in new efficient machines . TABLE 3

A.

the goods manufactured kind of goods nature of the market production volume (number of units/year) productfamily size

The Number and Value of CAD - systems Installed by 1979 and Forecast for 1984

Company groups Number

1979 Million Sk,

Number

1984 Million Sk,

The 22 1argest NC- and IRb- users

40

100

100

250

Th, rest of

20

30

100

175

60

130

200

425

industry Tota 1 Source:

Computers and Electronics Commission

Diffusion of Industrial Robots in Sweden

B.

the pa r t passing the machine kind of part and its function operation complexity , measu red in min/unit number of variants number of machine reprog raRllling per week batch si ze

The study showed a considerable difference In application between NC -machines and robots . The role of NC - machines in flexible manufacturing was far mo r e important than that of robots . Table 4 pre sents a SUlTlT1ary of the results in aggregated terms . Thus the production volume related to the average IIC-machine was less than 10000 units per year . Aver age ope rati on cycle exeeded 5 minutes , and the part manufactured appeared in a relatiyely big - more than 10 - ntlllber of variants . The machine was re pr ograrrmed 2-10 times a week, and consequent ly the ave r age batch size was low, less than 10 0 units . In this sample the average robot was used where production volume exceeded 10 000 units per year. Oper ation cycle was relatiyely short, less than 5 mi nutes . The pa rt appeared in few variants , or no variants at all. Reprog r arrming occured once a week or less . In many cases the robot was not re prografTJl\ed at a 11 . The average batch size amounted to mor e than 1 000 units . The study thus showed that the versat ili ty of indust ri al robots has in most cases been exploited only to a mino r deg r ee , or not made use of at all. The robot has merely been se rv i ng as a fix automation equipment but with that difference that the r obot can easily be resuded in other applications. TA8LE 4

23l

The full use of the potential ver satility of IRb will be one of the most challenging t asks during the 80 's for companies that develop sofisticated flexib le manufacturing systems . WHERE ARE l(: - r'~CHINES AND ROBOTS USED , AND WHY

In table 5 the enYlneering indust ry is broken down into majo r sectors according to the ISIC-nomenclature, and combined with the following four prod uct categories: o o o o

consumption goods (high prod uction vol umes) components (medium-high production volumes ) investment goods (low-medium p roduction volumes) consumer durables (high production volumes)

This classification has been used In order to find out if there exists a relation between nature of output and the implementation of certain pr oduction equipment . The relative size in terms of value added of each sector , as well as sha r es of NC machines and robots are added . Out of this information and the results of the NC and robot study presented above , the usefu 1ness of NC and robot applications In various kinds of manufacture wi 11 be discussed. In table 5, a very strong penet r ation of robots in the indust ry for fab r icated metal products (sector 381) is observed. Consumption goods and components , both high volume catego r ies , account for high sha r es while finished goods amount to relatively low shares . RemerTbering that robots at pr esent are mostly used in high volume manufactu ring the outcome thus seem quite reasonable.

Main Tendencies r egarding App l ications of NC Machines and Robots Robots

Pr Oduction volume (units/year) Ope ration cycle (min/unit) Part variation

< 10

000

>5

>10

>10

OOQ

<. 5 1-5

Rep r ogramming frequency (t i mes/week) 8atch si ze

2- 10

< 100

Source: Computers and El ectron ics Corrmission

<:0 1

> 1 QOO

234

J. Carlsson and H. Sel g

TABLE 5

Swedish Enginee r ing Industry broken down

Sector code*)

381

382

383

7 12

2 31

Investment goods

17 34 39

72

54

Consumer's durables

IQ

9

20 22 51

29

Share

(~ )

Components

(~ )

13

2 2 63 33

6 60 17

19 19 9

23 13 22

100 100 100

17

of

Value added NC-machines Robots

38

of output:

Consumpt i on goods

Share

384 **)

42

15

. ) 381: Manufacture of fabricated metal pr oducts, except machinery and equipment 382: Manufacture of machinery except electrical 383: Manufacture of electrical machinery, apparatus , appliances and supplies 384: Manufactu r e of transport equipment Group 385 (Manufactu re of profess i ana I and sc lent i fi c, measuring and cont r olling equipment not elsewhere classi fied , and of photografic and optical goods) is of minor importance in tenns of value added and employment and will not be di scussed **) Shipyards not included I n t he industry for transportation equipment (sector 384) , the robot share equals the share of value added . While this sector in cludes the automotive industry , traditionally on the technological frontline, one might have expected a higher share of r obots . One reason is that this sector manufactu res not only high volume pr oducts such as cars but also low volume investment goods such as trains and airplanes. Anothe r explanation could be that many components , assembled in the secto r 384, a re manufactured (sometimes by employing robots) in other sectors , especi ally 381 . Wi th investment goods as dami nat i ng category in the machine industry (sector 382) , most ly owing to non-electrical machine ry in the range of low-ta - medium volumes, the low share of robots is not surprising . Also in the industry for electrical mach ine ry (sector 383) , a much higher share of robots might have been expected . Here, massproduc tlon is pr evailing to an importa nt extent . Bea r ing in mind that the manufactu ring of elect r ical appliances, pr int ed ci rcuits , telecofTlllunication equipment as well as consumer's durables is cha ract e rized by advanced automation, one may conclude tha t this is achieved by using other types of equipment than r obots . In the e l ectrical

industries , t r ansfer lines , sometimes controlled by computers, are wi dely used . As to consumer 's du r ables (except TV - HiFij , the main manufacturing activity is assembly of parts and components often manufactured in establishments classified in sector 381. COfTlllenting upon the determinants of the diffusion of the NC -machines , will be the reverse of the r obot discussion . Thus the investment goods - intensive secto r 38 2 is a heavy use r of Ne - machines, where the flexibility of this equi pment fully can be explOited in small batch manufacturing of speCial purpose components . Also in sector 381, with metal working as pr edominant activity, NC-machines are used to an illllortant degree . Accordingly, the assembly - intensive pr oduction of tra nsport equipment in secto r 384 accounts fo r a rather low share , despit<:! the heavy use of NC - machines in manufactu r e of car engines , gear- boxes and transm i ssion. Again secto r 383 produces a somewhat supri sing result , this time by pr esenting a higher share of NC -machin e s than might have been expected . This is probably due to the existance of numerically cont r olled special pu r pose machines, above all in telecorrmuni -

Diffusion of Industrial Robots in Sweden

cations , e lectron ics and TV -Hi - Fi p roduction . THE S~ED I SH INDUSTRIAL ROBOT INDUSTRY Taking a broad definition of industrial robots we can distinguish three kinds of manufac t urers: o

o

o

Manufacturers of general purpose IRb. In this group the main manufactu res are ASEA (including the former Indust r ial System Division of Electrolux which was acquired by AS EA in 1981), At I as - Copco and Kaufe I dt . The production volume for 1982 can be estimated to about 1 lOO units . r'''anufacturers of s ecial ur ose IRb , i.e . automatic aading un oa lng equipment attached to specific machines . Volva's "Doppin" for loading/unloading press machines is an exa~le of special pu rpose !Rb . Several hundred units of this "robot" have been sold to autobile manufacturers all over the world . Manufacturers of pr ogramable mate r ial handling equipment, i.e . auto cilrrier systems , computer controlled crane and wharehousing systems . This is an industry where Sweden is regarded to have a strong international position . The leading companies in this group are Volvo ACS , BT lifters , Tellus , Digit r on, ASEA and Moving. The "robots" produced by these manufacturers are essential components in Flexible Manufacturing Systems .

Among the general purpose IRb manufactu rer s ASEA is the incomparably largest and has the most sophisticated robot program. The production target for 1982 is over 1 000 units (including the MHU-models from Electrolux) which probably makes ASEA one of the three larges t IRb manufilctu rers in the worl d. ~ith

an export ratio of about ~ 't , the international ma r kets are ilbsolutely essent ial to ASEA and for that matter the other robot manufactures as we112 . For this reason ASEA has set up produc tion facilities in both USA and Spain .

2

Ve ry high export rat ios is a Characteristic for Swedish industry. More than half of the industrial pr oduction is exported (the export is 1/3 of the GNP.

235

The domest ic market is however important f or the Swedish !Rb-manufactu r e r s for the following rea sons: a) The Swedish [Rb-market mater ialized earl ie r than in most other countries (w ith the exception of Japan and USA) . b) Test market for new robot systems. POLICIES FOR PROMOTING THE DIFFUSION Of INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS IRb and other computer aided manufacturing equipment are impo r tant means for inc r easing pr oductivity in industry. For this reilson most countries have set up progra ms in order to speed up the diffusion . Japan and some other countries have or are planni n9 Gove r nment programs that include investment grantS to IRb -manu facturers as well as IRb - use r s , sUbventionized leasiny arrangements, special tax deduction rates etc . These types of actions have also been considered in Sweden but have been rej ected for the following two reasons:

1. In general i t is not the financing of IRb investments that is the obstacle . If the i nvestment is calculated to give nomal ROI there should be no problem in raising capital (frO"ll owner capital, cOfllllercial ban~s, the Government Investment Bank , regional development funds etc.). 2. The competetiveness against othe r solu tions than [Rb gets distorted. The IRb is fa r from being the only solution in order to imp r ove the productivity or the working cond iti ons in the manufac t uring process . The barriers for the diffusion of new manu fa cturing tech nologies, of which IRb is one, are acco r ding to our findings: o The gene ral technical and engineering knowledge in companies. Withou t this knowledge many firms, especially small fims, will not cOfllllence the " learning" pr ocess which sta rt s with the following steps: a) awareness of new technologies, b) ask the quest ion "is the r obot something for me?" c) feasibility studies and investment calculations etc.

J. Carlsson and H. Setg

236

o Knowledge in assessing the prerequisites for cl profitable !Rb-investment. Critical factors are not only the cost of the IRb dfld calculated income but illso present and future production volumes , the costs of tools and other peripherals, the integra gratian of the IRb with other machines and the time it takes to fOdke the whole system

operational. In comparison to convt:ntional machine in-

the universities or industry. They will also be able to carry out specific promotion programs directed to wards the regional small and medium si zed firms . The EDC :s will be based on an e)(isting research organization . In the future the numbe r of EDC :s will pr obably increase to five or six. 2. The formation of thre~ CAD/CAM - centres as a joi nt - venture bet ween uni vers i ties and EDC:s .

vestments, there is a lack of expe r ience of how to caleu! ate reI iable investment funct ions. Present standard methods dre

not satisfactory . Often income as well as costs are underestimated . o

La d of skilled labou r (can be d bottle neck as well as an incentive to invest in IRb) .

In short we therefore think that the barriers are rather "knowledge- based" than "capital-based" . For th is reason the Swedish Government has recently pr esented a bill, based on recomendat ions frOOl the Computers and Electronics Comission, with the following p ropositions: 1. The formation of three Engineering Development Centres (EDC) located at technical universities, The centres, which will be financed by the Government as well as the Association of Mechanical and Electrical Industries , will act as "a bridge" between uni versities and industry . They wi 11 unde r take development pro jects either on their own or in cooperation with

3. Increased fundS for education and R&D at universities and trade schools with respect to computer technology and new manufacturing technologies. However, this new program does not indicate a sudden inte rest in robotics and CAD/CAM from the Gove rnment . It merely reflects a still higher pr io rity given to these fields. The National Technical Boa rd (which is an agency under the Ministry of Industry) has in recent yeclrs sharply increased its funding for R&D in robotics and CAD/CAM . Several large long tem research prog rams are no w in prog ress at universities and industry. Finally, in or der to stimulate leading-edge companies to invest in advanced clnd high risk pilot projects. thereby initiating new diffusion processes, the Gover nment provides spe cial risk-sharing capital th r ough the Indu strial Fund . Ho wever, clS the Indust r ial Fund can be used for all kinds of advanced industrial pr ojects IRb and CAD/CAM have to "compete" with projects within other technologies .