The economic value of the Andean Condor: The national symbol of South America

Journal Pre-proof The economic value of the Andean Condor: the national symbol of South America Manuel Zambrano-Monserrate

PII:

S1617-1381(19)30380-2

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2020.125796

Reference:

JNC 125796

To appear in:

Journal for Nature Conservation

Received Date:

1 November 2019

Revised Date:

31 December 2019

Accepted Date:

14 January 2020

Please cite this article as: Zambrano-Monserrate M, The economic value of the Andean Condor: the national symbol of South America, Journal for Nature Conservation (2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnc.2020.125796

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The economic value of the Andean Condor: the national symbol of South America Manuel Zambrano-Monserrate Universidad Espíritu Santo

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Most ecuadorians know that the Andean Condor is in danger of extinction. The Willingness to Pay (WTP) to avoid the extinction of the species was estimated between US$ 18.65-US$ 34.54 per year. Socio-economic variables such as sex, age and education do not influence people's WTP.

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Abstract The Andean condor (Vultur gryphus) occupies a mythical place in South American history. It is considered the official symbol of several nations. The Andean condor is the largest bird of prey in the world, which offers vital ecosystem services for humans. Condors remove the carcasses of animals that die in the moor by feeding on carrion (decomposed meat). At the same time, they prevent the growth and expansion of populations of other organisms potentially harmful to humans. Despite its importance and symbolic relevance, it is a species that is in danger of extinction (in Ecuador, there are slightly more than 100 specimens). Therefore, this study aimed to determine its economic value through the Contingent Valuation method. The Willingness to Pay (WTP) was determined to be between US$ 18.65 - US$ 34.54 per year, with a median of US$ 24.83. Competent authorities jointly with pro-animal organizations can design and execute rescue and conservation strategies for the condor, taking as a frame of reference the results of this research. The present research contributes to the literature by estimating the economic value of an emblematic species, which has been little or not studied from the perspective of environmental and ecological economics. Keywords: ecuadorian Andean Condor; Vultur gryphus; economic value; contingent valuation.

INTRODUCTION

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The Andean condor (Vultur gryphus) is the largest and heaviest non-marine flying bird in the world (Astore et al., 2016). It can measure up to 3.50 m, between the tips of its open wings, and weighs up to 15 kg (Padro et al., 2017). Its habitat goes from northern Colombia and western Venezuela through the Andes mountain range in Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia to Tierra del Fuego in Argentina and Chile (Fergusson-Lee & Christie, 2001; Houston et al., 2013). The Andean condor is considered part of the cultural and natural heritage of South America (Restrepo-Cardona et al., 2019). It appears as a national symbol in the coat of arms of the Republics of Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, and Ecuador (Gordillo, 2002). The Andean condor is a carrion bird (vulture) that fulfills vital functions in ecosystems. This bird consumes the carrion of animals that die in the field, fulfilling the function of eliminating organic remains and contributing to their recycling, accelerating the ecological succession of other scavengers and decomposers, thus eliminating infectious foci in ecosystems (Vargas et al., 2018). Despite their importance and symbolism, the Andean condors are classified as "Near Threatened" by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and are classified as "Endangered" in northern South America (Naveda-Rodríguez et al., 2016). The main threats to its existence include poaching, poisoning, exposure to lead, collision with power lines, loss of habitat, the use of toxic pesticides by farmers and the reduction of safe and reliable food sources (Lambertucci et al., 2009; Lambertucci et al., 2011; Lambertucci et al., 2018; Pauli et al., 2018; Wiemeyer et al., 2017; Alarcón and Lambertucci, 2018). Although there are no precise estimates, it is speculated that the total number of Andean condors reaches a few thousand individuals, mainly concentrated in Chile, Argentina, and Ecuador (BirdLife International, 2016).

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In Ecuador, the Andean condor lives in the central (Andean) region of the country (figure 1). According to the last Andean Condor National Census, there are only between 94 and 102 specimens (NavedaRodríguez et al., 2016). According to the Red Book of Birds of Ecuador, the Andean condor is considered endangered (Granizo et al., 2002). About this, Naveda-Rodríguez et al. (2016) mention the need to redirect the efforts of the population to the conservation of the habitat of this species. For this reason, and with the desire to contribute to the protection and conservation of the Andean condor, the Ministry of Environment of Ecuador (MAE, acronym in Spanish) published through the Official Registry the “Conservation Strategy of the Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador.” In this Registry, July 7 was declared as the “National Andean Condor Day,” as a way of raising public awareness about bird conservation (MAE, 2015). Also, the Andean Condor Conservation Strategy and the Andean Condor National Working Group (GNTCA, acronym in Spanish) were established, which consist of several organizations1 that, over the years, have been working for the welfare of this species (MAE, 2015). Nongovernmental organizations such as the “Andean Condor Foundation2” have also joined this task. Furthermore, in December 2018, the “Action Plan for the Conservation of the Andean Condor in Ecuador” was published, where a series of guidelines for the management, rescue, and conservation of this type of birds in the country were established (Vargas et al., 2018).

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However, and despite these efforts, the mechanisms and instruments for the rescue and conservation of this type of species are usually very expensive (for example, captive breeding and subsequent monitoring). Although various organizations have financed most of these mechanisms, these organizations base their budgets on charitable contributions, which are limited. Considering the cultural and symbolic value that the Andean condor represents for Ecuador, its very existence generates social benefits that are often not well understood or valued by the population. The non-market economic valuation (EV) can contribute significantly to the understanding of these benefits (Einarsdóttir et al., 2019). Non-market EV allows us to estimate, through an indicator measured in monetary units, the monetary value of the benefits (or changes in benefits) perceived by humans from natural resources (Marre et al., 2016; Zambrano- Monserrate et al., 2018). If the conservation provided by these natural resources has a positive economic value higher than the cost of misuse, the information that can be generated about their ecological, cultural, aesthetic, and economic benefits will support actions to protect and conserve them in a productive way (Kolstad, 2011). Therefore, non-market EV serves as a basis for governments to intervene by correcting the actions of individuals or eliminating subsidies that distort decisions and promote inappropriate behaviors concerning natural resources (Anna and Saputra, 2017). This correction allows for more efficient use and a more equitable distribution of associated costs and benefits (Torres and Hanley, 2017). Furthermore, non-market EV is a prerequisite of the socially optimal environmental policy of natural resources (Cook et al., 2018).

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Among the participating organizations are BirdLife International (https://www.birdlife.org), Wildlife Conservation Society (https://www.wcs.org), WWF Colombia (http://www.wwf.org.co), among others (MAE, 2015). 2 Since 2012, the team of the Andean Condor Foundation (FCA, acronym in Spanish) and The Peregrine Fund have executed the Andean Condor Ecological Research and Monitoring Project in Ecuador (PICE, acronym in Spanish). Their work has been focused on 1) satellite telemetry, 2) ecological monitoring, 3) reproduction biology, 4) threat research, particularly of poorly maintained feral and domestic dogs, and 5) environmental awareness and education. The results of the PICE have been presented annually to the Ministry of Environment, to the National Working Group of the Andean Condor, and to the environmental authorities responsible for making decisions about the species and its habitat. From 2019 and for the next ten years, the goal of this organization is to contribute to the execution of the Andean Condor Conservation Action Plan (Andean Condor Foundation, 2019). 2

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Figure 1. Andean condor habitat in Ecuador Elaboration: The author

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Previous studies have economically valued essential animal species due to the various functions they fulfill, namely biological, ecological, or recreational. For example, Cazabon-Mannette et al. (2017) estimated the economic value of sea turtles in Tobago. They found that divers are willing to pay more than US$ 62 per dive in two tanks for the first encounter with turtles. The average willingness to pay for turtle conservation among international visitors to Tobago was US$ 31.13, reflecting a significant value of non-use associated with actions aimed at preventing sea turtles from becoming extinct. For their part, Shideler and Pierce (2016) calculated the economic value that recreational divers give to the “Goliath Grouper” in Florida, USA. Using a survey instrument with choice experiments, they estimated that divers would be willing to pay approximately US$ 103 for a dive trip for an encounter with “Meros Goliath” during the months of their spawning aggregation (August-October), and US$ 202 if there are 40 “Meros Goliath.”

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Additionally, Indab (2016) estimated the willingness to pay of Philippines residents to preserve the continued presence of whale sharks. Their results showed that Philippines residents are willing to pay between PHP 17 (US$ 0.34) and PHP 35 (US$ 0.70) per household per month. Also, more than half of respondents (60.71%) fully agree that everyone is responsible for ensuring that plants and animals, as they are known today, exist for humanity in the future. On the other hand, Wei et al. (2018) estimated the economic value of the ecosystem services offered by the giant panda in China. They found that the total value of ecosystem services was US$ 2.6 - US$ 6.9 billion/year in 2010. Besides, they mentioned that the protection of the panda as an umbrella species and the habitat that sustains it produces approximately 10 to 27 times the cost of maintaining current reserves, which could further motivate the expansion of reserves and other investments in natural capital in China. However, there is no evidence of previous studies that have valued the Andean condor economically. Few studies have evaluated the economic value of emblematic birds. Only Boyle and Bishop (1987), Stevens et al. (1991), and Swanson (1993) estimated the economic value of the bald eagle in the United States. On the one hand, Boyle and Bishop (1987) calculated the value of this symbolic bird at US$ 21.21 per year (US$ 2006). On the other hand, Stevens et al. (1991) estimated this value at US$ 45.21 per year (2006 US$). Finally, Swanson (1993) quantified the economic value of the bald eagle at US$ 31.85 per year (US$ 2006). Therefore, the objective of this research is to estimate the economic value of the Andean condor of Ecuador through the Contingent Valuation method (CV). Using different parametric approaches, the 3

Willingness to Pay (WTP) for avoiding condor extinction is estimated between US$ 18.65 - US$ 34.54 per year, with a median of US$ 24.83. This study encourages future research on endangered species, whose rescue programs generally do not have continuous sources of funding for their execution. The rest of the document is structured as follows: the methodology is described in section 2. The results are presented in section 3. Section 4 concludes.

2.

METHODOLOGY 2.1 Contingent Valuation

The Andean condor can be considered a natural resource that lacks an explicit market per se. In this sense, the valuation of a natural resource must be carried out differently from the valuation of market goods (Choi and Koo, 2018). As previously mentioned, non-market EV is an economical approach to assign a monetary value to natural resources that are not traded directly in the markets (Lo and Jim, 2015). One of the most popular and used non-market EV methods is CV.

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2.2 Focus groups, pilot surveys and questionnaire design

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The CV method involves a direct investigation of people's preferences for environmental goods or services (Mitchell and Carson, 2013). Generally, it is implemented through questionnaires designed following economic principles. In CV, an institutional context is created in which there is a hypothetical environmental change, and implicit compensation is required between personal income and environmental quality (Lo and Jim, 2015). People who participate in the survey are asked to indicate their maximum WTP to avoid negative environmental change (in this particular case, the extinction of the Andean condor).

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Before data collection, focus groups and pilot surveys were conducted to define important aspects of the survey, as recommended by Kanninen (1993) and Haab and McConnell (2002). The focus groups were made up of 12 people over 18 years old interested in the problem of the extinction of the Andean condor. On the other hand, 25 pilot surveys were conducted face-to-face with questions open to people over 18. Both focus groups and pilot surveys were conducted in several cities in the country. At this stage, the hypothetical improvement scenario was validated, and the frequency and schemes of the bids were defined.

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The final questionnaire consisted of four parts. The first part evaluated the relationship of people with animals and the environment. The second part aimed to assess and measure the knowledge, preferences, and attitudes of the population towards the problem of the extinction of the Andean condor. In the third part, the hypothetical improvement scenario and the various strategies to mitigate the different biases were raised and evaluated. In the last section, questions were asked about the socioeconomic characteristics of the population3.

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2.3 Sampling and measurement of WTP

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The questionnaire was distributed through the internet. Contingent valuation surveys through the internet have gained great popularity in recent years due to their significant advantages (Skeie et., 2019). For example, they are cheaper, quickly understood, and less cognitively charged to the respondent (Menegaki et al., 2016). Also, Lindhjem and Navrud (2011) showed that the contingent valuation surveys conducted on the internet are not significantly different or biased compared to face-to-face interviews. Moreover, if their design is correct, they can produce complete and higher quality responses than other data collection methods (Truell, 2003). Additionally, when using an online questionnaire, the interviewer's bias is avoided4. For the sample to be nationally representative, data were obtained from several cities in the country 5. The data was collected between August 10, 2019, and August 30, 2019, and was addressed to people over 18 3

The complete questionnaire is available upon request. In fact, when the data collection is carried out by interviewing the person directly, it has been observed that the person tends to exaggerate their WTP for a cause that they consider socially acceptable, for fear of appearing in front of the interviewer as not very supportive, or aware of the problem (Dupras et al., 2018). 5 Such as Guayaquil, Quito, Machala, Quevedo, Cuenca, Riobamba, Loja, among others. 4

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years old who are able to make financial decisions. In total, 862 surveys were collected. After validating each of the surveys (elimination of incomplete or inconsistent surveys), a total of 825 valid questionnaires were obtained. The valuation question was raised as a consultative referendum. Respondents were asked about their maximum WTP for a public (hypothetical) program that prevents the extinction of the Andean condor in Ecuador. The dichotomous choice format, presented by Bishop and Heberlein (1979), was used and was recommended for the first time by the NOAA Panel, which evaluated the credibility and reliability of the CV method (Arrow et al., 1993). This approach is compatible with incentives, avoids the lack of response and outliers, and represents a lower cognitive burden for the respondent (Bateman et al., 2002). Moreover, this approach perfectly mimics a market situation, so it is relatively easy to understand (Borzykowski et al., 2018).

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Initially, respondents were asked if they were willing to pay in general for a public (hypothetical) program to save the Andean condor. If the respondents answered “yes,” then they were given a bid, where the respondents had to answer “yes” or “no.” Based on the results of the focus groups and the pre-test surveys, six different bids were established: 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 40 US$. Each respondent was presented with a single randomly assigned bid from one of these six payment levels. Many studies, including that of Zografakis et al. (2010), allow this random assignment. 2.4 Bias control

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The control of the various biases that the methodology originates is of vital importance in the CV studies. Thus, to control the hypothetical bias6, the valuation question was posed in such a way that the respondents imagined that they were paying the agreed money. Moreover, they were reminded that their income is limited, the latter so that they consider the opportunity cost they face. All of these strategies have been effective in reducing hypothetical bias (Guo et al., 2014; Mitchell and Carson, 2013; Cummings and Taylor, 1999).

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On the other hand, to control the strategic bias 7, the survey specified that if a high percentage of respondents (more than 50%) agree to pay for the improvement, the policy would be implemented, and citizens would pay for it. While, if the majority of respondents do not agree, the program would be canceled. This procedure suggests to respondents that their answers would affect the implementation of the policy, reducing the presence of excessively large or small WTP values.

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Respondents who answered “no” to the general proposal were asked a follow-up question about their main reason for not wanting to contribute to the program. The response options were: a) The competent authorities are already spending enough to combat the problem of the extinction of the condors, b) I do not trust that the money raised is adequately managed, c) It is not my job to finance these types of projects, d) my current economic situation does not let me pay, e) The extinction of the condor is not a problem in Ecuador and f) There are more critical environmental problems than the extinction of the condor. The responses to the first three options were considered as protest responses, while the other three options are true zeros (Labao et al., 2008; Dribek and Voltaire, 2017). As a general rule, reasons other than financial restrictions, and the assumption that the good has no value for the respondent should be considered protest responses (Labao et al., 2008).

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The annual payment was chosen according to what was discussed in the focus groups. People said they had a better chance of imagining a real situation with annual payments, than other forms of payment that were more complex or unrealistic. The advantages of using annual payments are widely discussed in the research of Egan et al. (2015). On the other hand, the payment vehicle was not specified to minimize the tendency to get protest responses (Meyerhoff and Liebe, 2010). 2.5 Empirical analysis

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The situation in which the interviewee could declare an exaggeratedly high WTP because the scenario of improvement is hypothetical (Hausman, 2012). 7 Respondents may think that if the improvement is carried out, it will be financed by the beneficiaries, according to the WTP declared in the surveys. If so, the interviewee will likely choose the least credible amount as a response. On the other hand, the interviewee may be convinced that if the implementation of the improvement program is carried out, it will be independent of their response. As Samuelson (1954) points out, “it is interesting for the person, from a selfish point of view, to give false signals, to pretend to have a lower interest than what is really had in a certain collective activity,” to offer, in short, a strategic response, not an honest one. 5

CV studies often eliminate protest responses from the analysis. However, the elimination of protest responses is only justified if these observations are a random part of the sample that can be excluded without affecting the results (Grammatikopoulou and Olsen, 2013) and if the group of protesters is not significantly different from the rest of the sample (Halstead et al., 1992; Strazzera et al., 2003). If the above is not fulfilled, protest bidders are likely to declare a WTP value different from the rest of the sample. Therefore, eliminating these responses would be falling into a significant sample selection bias. To account for this possible bias, a two-step Heckman probit model was initially estimated. The equation of interest is the probit equation of the calibrated 8 dichotomous choice question. For the selection equation, the dependent variable was the general valuation question 9. The null hypothesis of the likelihood ratio test of independent equations (rho = 0) could not be rejected (X 2 = 0.28; p-value = 0.5520), indicating that there is no selection bias10.

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Having checked the above, two simple parametric models were estimated: one logistic (with symmetric distribution) and another Log-Normal (with asymmetric distribution). Additionally, a mixed parametric model was estimated: Spike Log-Normal (with asymmetric distribution). Previous studies have shown that the estimation of WTP (both mean and median) is sensitive to the assumption of distribution assumed (Aizaki et al., 2014).

RESULTS

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Out of the simple parametric models, logistic is the most used, since the estimation of WTP is relatively simple compared to other models. Also, the results estimated by a logit usually coincide with those estimated by non-parametric models (Bateman et al., 2002). However, these types of models, being symmetrical, could yield a negative or infinite WTP. Both results from economic theory are not acceptable, since if an individual does not value a good, his WTP should be zero, and not negative11. Besides, the WTP should not be infinite, since this regularly depends on the income of people, which is finite (Bateman et al., 2002). A parametric model with an asymmetric distribution like the log-normal could better fit the true WTP. This type of model solves the problem of negative WTP. However, it does not solve the problem of infinite WTP (Borzykowski et al., 2018). Mixed models like Spike Log-normal solve both problems. The Spike model proposed by Kriström (1997), assumes that the data follow a twopart distribution, with a mass of probability at a price of zero, followed by a continuous probability distribution at nonzero prices (Orgill-Meyer et al., 2018).

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The most important results of this research are described below. First, it begins with some descriptive statistics on the relationship of people with the environment and animals, particularly towards the Andean condor. Acceptance and protest rates are also analyzed for each level of bid. Subsequently, empirical estimates are shown using different parametric models. Finally, the WTP of people is estimated to avoid the extinction of the Andean condor. 3.1 Descriptive statistics

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For most respondents (70.38%), the welfare of animals, in general, is very important. However, only a small percentage (13.53%) of the respondents have participated as volunteers in an animal/environmental organization in the last 12 months. Along these same lines, the results show that attendance at training/talks related to the care of the environment and/or natural resources is also low (31.43%). People were also asked if, in the last 12 months, they have collaborated economically with any animal/environmental organization. A large percentage (71.73%) responded that they did not make such contributions.

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Excluding protest responses. Including protest responses. 10 The full results of this procedure are not shown to save space but are available upon request. 11 A negative result could only be accepted if the public program can be considered as a deterioration. 9

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Figure 2. Statistics on the relationship of people with animals and the environment Elaboration: The author

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Regarding the Ecuadorian Andean condor, approximately 94% of respondents said that they are aware that the species is in danger of extinction. Moreover, more than 2/3 of those interviewed said that the extinction of this type of bird is a significant issue. Regarding the functions performed by the Andean condor in nature, most people (40.75%) responded knowing little about the subject.

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Table 1. Socio-economic descriptive statistics Variable

Category

Mean Percent

Age

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29.53 -

Men

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46.62

Women

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53.38

Lower than US$ 400

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16.69

Between US$ 400 – US$ 900

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34.29

Between US$ 901 – US$ 1700

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23.76

Between US$ 1701 – US$ 2800 -

12.78

Between US$ 2801 – US$ 3500 -

7.07

Higher than US$ 3500

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5.41

Elementary school

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1.5

High school

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48.57

University

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32.18

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Income

Education

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Postgraduate

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17.74

The statistics in table 1 show that the majority of respondents are, on average, 30 years old, and that a large percentage corresponds to women (53.38%). About the monthly family income, the majority responded to have an income ranging from US$ 400 to US$ 900. Finally, a large percentage of respondents (48.57%) mentioned having finished high school. 3.2 Models estimation

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Table 2 shows the estimates of the three models described above. The main independent variable is the bid value that was shown to the respondents. Additional control variables have been included (see details in Appendix A). The inclusion of control variables should not alter the mean of the WTP since the latter is evaluated on the average of these variables. However, it allows controlling the heterogeneous characteristics of the population (Borzykowski et al., 2018). In all models, the sign of the variable “bid” is negative and statistically significant. This result indicates that the greater the bid, the lower the probability of people paying. This result is consistent with the findings of Giraud et al. (2002) in USA, Ferreira and Marques (2015) in Portugal, Jianjun et al. (2018) in China, and Khong et al. (2019) in Vietnam.

Table 2. Models estimation.

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Log-Normal — −0.4351*

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Logistic −0.0487* —

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Bid Log(Bid) Importance of animals Important Very important Charitable contribution Attendance to talks Knowledge Some Little A lot Sex Age Income Between US$ 400 – US$ 900 Between US$ 901 – US$ 1700 Between US$ 1701 – US$ 2800 Between US$ 2801 – US$ 3500 Higher than US$ 3500 Education High school University Postgraduate Constant LR chi2 Wald chi2 Count R2 (%) Pearson (Prob>chi2) AIC BIC

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People’s relationships with animals and the environment influence their WTP. Respondents who said that animal welfare (in general) is very important or important, are more likely to pay than those who consider the issue as less important or unimportant. Also, those people who collaborated economically with an animalist/environmentalist organization in the last 12 months are more likely to contribute monetarily than those who did not. Likewise, respondents who attended training/talks related to the care of the environment and/or natural resources during the last year are more likely to pay than those who did not attend. Finally, people who responded to have greater knowledge about the functions that the Andean condor plays in nature are more likely to pay the proposed bid.

Spike Log-Normal — −0.7618*

0.5521** 0.7085* 0.4690** 0.4666**

0.3121** 0.4374* 0.3744** 0.3833*

0.2742*** 0.5025* 0.3721** −0.0350 −0.0118

0.2492*** 0.5031* 0.3646** −0.0298 −0.0074

0.2018*** 0.4913* 0.3026** −0.0254 −0.0192

0.1023 0.1839** 0.2051* 0.2253* 0.2799*

0.1328 0.1639** 0.1852* 0.1943* 0.2095*

0.1542 0.2049** 0.2643* 0.3038* 0.3895*

0.0532 0.1037 0.1111 −1.4476** 117.67* — 67.5 0.2113 1.236 −3455.43

0.0372 0.0548 0.0653 −1.3445* 121.27* — 69.9 0.1681 1.240 −3422.54

0.2592** 0.3298* 0.2699** 0.3912*

0.0231 0.0592 0.0632 1.2743* 277.66* — — 1.231 −3459.03 8

*** p<0.1, ** p<0.05, * p<0.01.

The effect of socioeconomic variables on WTP was also analyzed. It was demonstrated that income positively and significantly affects WTP. This finding is consistent with the studies by Boxall et al. (2012) in Canada, Kontogianni et al. (2012) in Greece, Dribek and Voltaire (2017) in Tunisia, Lim et al. (2017) in Korea, Jianjun et al. (2018) in China, and Skeie et al. (2019) in Norway. However, it contradicts the findings of Cazabon-Mannette et al. (2017) in Tobago, who found no evidence that the income affects the WTP of people by preserving sea turtles in that locality. Other variables considered in the present study were: “sex,” “age,” and “education.” No evidence was found that these variables significantly affect WTP. Studies by other authors who have used contingent valuation have found similar results. For example, the education of people was not significant in the Chen and Qi (2018) studies in China and Indab (2016) in the Philippines. Likewise, age did not affect the WTP of those interviewed in the studies by Cook et al. (2018) in Iceland and Stithou and Scarpa (2012) in Greece. Finally, sex was a nonsignificant variable in Tonin’s (2019) research in Italy and Kim et al.’s (2012) research in Korea.

2.6 Estimation of Willingness to Pay (WTP)

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At the end of each estimate, some goodness of fit tests are shown. The likelihood ratio (LR) statistic is significant at 1% in the Logit model and Log-Normal model; this means that the coefficients of the slopes are statistically significant jointly to explain the probability that people are willing to pay or not. The same interpretation follows the Wald test for the Spike Log-Normal model. Also, Count R2 is presented, which shows the percentage of observations that the model correctly classified. For example, in the Logit model, 67.5% of the observations were correctly classified. Additionally, the probability of Pearson's goodness-of-fit test is shown. In the Logit and Log-Normal models, this value is higher than 0.05, so there is a good fit of the estimated models. Finally, the Akaike (AIC) and Bayesian (BIC) information criteria are presented. That model, with the lowest information criteria, is considered the best. In this case, the Spike Log-Normal meets that condition.

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As mentioned in the previous section, the calculation of the WTP (mean and median) depends on the assumption of the distribution assumed (Aizaki et al., 2014). For example, the WTP that arise from the "log" distributions is higher, due to the asymmetry and the correct bias of these distributions. This result is standard, as recognized in Bengochea-Morancho et al. (2005). Table 3 shows that the mean WTP of the logistic model is much lower than the mean WTP of the non-symmetric models. Additionally, the median of the Spike Log-Normal model is higher than the median estimated by the Log-Normal model. The confidence intervals for each model were estimated to determine if these differences are significant.

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Because WTP measurements (mean and median) are non-linear functions of the estimated parameters, procedures such as the delta method are inappropriate since they produce symmetric confidence intervals (Borzykowski et al., 2018). Therefore, non-symmetric confidence intervals were estimated using Krinsky and Robb simulations, as recommended by Park et al. (1991), and Haab and McConnell (2002). Table 2 shows that the mean WTP of the three models evaluated differs significantly. Similarly, the median WTP of asymmetric models.

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Considering the information criteria shown in Table 2, the model with the best fit is the Spike LogNormal. When the adjusted distribution is asymmetric (as in the case of Spike Log-Normal), the median, rather than the mean, is preferred as a measure of central tendency (Strazzera et al., 2003). Therefore, it is concluded that the WTP for preventing the extinction of the Ecuadorian Andean condor is between US$ 18.65 - US$ 34.54 per year, with a median of US$ 24.83. Table 3. WTP estimation

Mean WTP LB UB ASLa Median WTP LB UB

Logistic 19.74 15.84 23.17 0.000 n.a.b -

Log-Normal 186.84 74.02 1376.50 0.000 13.31 10.23 16.78

Spike Log-Normal 43.05 29.34 103.51 0.000 24.83 18.65 34.54

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ASLa

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0.000

0.000

Krinsky and Robb (95 %) Confidence Interval for WTP measures (Nb of reps: 10000) a Achieved Significance Level for testing H0: WTP<=0 vs. H1: WTP>0 LB: Lower bound; UB: Upper bound. b Logistic distributions are symmetrical and hence mean WTP equals the median.

4.

DISCUSSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

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Previous studies have economically valued important animal species such as sea turtles, fish (such as the “Mero Goliath” and whale shark), panda bears, among others. However, there is no evidence of previous work that has valued the Andean condor (Vultur gryphus) in economic terms. For thousands of years, the Andean condor has been honored by native communities as a sacred link between space and humans. In the last 100 years, the distribution of this emblematic species has rapidly decreased and was declared extinct at both ends of its endemic South American distribution, in Venezuela and the Atlantic coast of Patagonia (Astore et al., 2016). The Andean condor is a national symbol, declared in danger of extinction in the Red Book of Birds of Ecuador (Granizo et al., 2002).

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Although in recent years, there has been a great effort by environmental organizations to rescue and save the species, financing problems have made the task difficult. Therefore, this research aimed to determine the WTP of Ecuadorians to avoid the extinction of the Andean condor. Knowing that, in CV, the WTP is sensitive to the statistical assumption assumed about its distribution, some parametric models were tested. The Spike Log-Normal model presented the best fit, so its results were used for inference. The WTP was estimated between US$ 18.65 - US$ 34.54 per year, with a median of US$ 24.83. This non-market valuation constitutes a vital instrument of public policy, as it represents the economic value that Ecuadorians grant to the Andean condor. Public organizations such as the MAE, together with pro-animal organizations, can design and execute rescue and conservation strategies for the condor such as: 1) Improve the conditions of the condor's habitat (place of residence), 2) Increase the availability of food for the condors, 3) Increase the number of veterinarians to reduce the deaths of convalescent specimens after their rescue, 4) Identify areas where the condor is more vulnerable due to the interactions with people and develop strategies that decrease the condor-human interaction, 5) Improve conditions in captivity of condors.

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This study also found that WTP is affected by the relationship of people with animals and the environment. Those who consider the welfare of animals, in general, to be very important or important, are more likely to accept paying the proposed bid. Also, respondents who said they had contributed financially to some animal/environmental organization in the last year, are more likely to pay for the conservation and rescue of the condor. People’s sensitivity to environmental and animal issues can explain these findings, which is manifested by their charitable contributions to these organizations. On the other hand, no evidence was found that the age, sex, or education of people are determinants of WTP. A possible explanation for this is that environmental awareness does not increase over the years, and both men and women might share the same interest in preserving the Andean condor. On the other hand, people with more education do not necessarily have more environmental education than those who are not highly educated. Family income is the only significant socioeconomic variable.

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Public policies can be recommended after the results of this research. For example, it was determined that respondents who have attended training/talks related to the care of the environment and/or natural resources are more likely to pay for the conservation and rescue of the species. In other words, people can value the condor more if they become aware of environmental issues by attending talks. Then, public organizations such as the MAE should encourage citizens to attend these types of events. Along these same lines, competent authorities should continuously carry out informative talks about the role of the Andean condor in nature. This research determined that a large percentage of citizens know little or nothing about the subject. However, knowledge of the role performed by the condor in nature positively and significantly affects the WTP. Additionally, it was determined that the level of education does not influence the WTP of people to save the condor. Therefore, local and central authorities should carry out educational reforms in schools, colleges, and universities so that their curricula include content on environmental awareness and education, especially about endangered species such as the Ecuadorian condor. Also, policymakers should

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periodically disclose the penalties that exist12 against people who mistreat or kill endangered species. This action could deter the behavior of some citizens who have hunted the Andean condor for pure pleasure. The present research contributes to the literature by estimating the economic value of an endangered species that has been little or not studied from the perspective of environmental and ecological economics. In that sense, the present work encourages future research on the subject. For example, subsequent studies on the condor could separate the values of use and non-use. These types of studies would allow a better understanding of people's WTP, and therefore the development of more focused public policies. Future research could also assess other critically endangered species such as Amur Leopard, Black Rhino, Bornean Orangutan, Hawksbill Turtle, among others. Appendix A Table A1. Variables considered for the estimation of the WTP. Description Bid proposed to the respondent in US$.

Importance of animals

Rating given by respondents to the welfare of the animals.

Charitable contribution

If in the last 12 months the respondent has collaborated economically with an animalist/environmental organization. If in the last 12 months the respondent has attended training/talks related to the care of the environment and/or natural resources.

0=No 1=Yes

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Attendance to talks

Code 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, 40. 0=Not important 1=Less important 2=Important 3=Very important 0=No 1=Yes

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Variable Bid

How well does the respondent know about the role performed by the Andean condor in nature.

Sex

Sex of the respondent.

Age

Age of the respondent in years.

Income

Monthly family income of the respondent.

Education

Highest level of education achieved by the respondent.

0=Nothing 1=Little 2=Some 3=A lot 0=Women 1=Men 0=Lower than US$ 400 1=Between US$ 400 – US$ 900 2=Between US$ 901 – US$ 1700 3=Between US$ 1701 – US$ 2800 4=Between US$ 2801 – US$ 3500 5=Higher than US$ 3500 0=Elementary school 1=High school 2=University 3=Postgraduate

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According to the Organic Integral Criminal Code of Ecuador (COIP, for its acronym in Spanish), Article 247 indicates: “The person who hunts, fish, capture, collect, extract, have, transport, traffic, benefit, exchange or market, specimens or their parts, their constituent elements, products and Derivatives of terrestrial, marine or aquatic flora or fauna, of endangered and migratory species, listed nationally by the National Environmental Authority as well as international instruments or treaties ratified by the State, will be sanctioned with the exclusive penalty of freedom from one to three years”(COIP, 2014). 12

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