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The effects of late economic development on land use
07.43~0167/Y 1 f3.M f 0.00 Pergemon Press plc
loimui of Rrrrd Smttie.v.Vol. 7, No 4. pp. J-C-t9. 1991 Printed in Great Britain
The Effects of Late Economic Development on Land Use* Maurizio Merlo Department
of Land
and Agro-Forestry
Systems, University
of Padua, Padua. Italy
Abstract -
This paper examines the effects of various factors, such as economic and demographic development, land resource availability, settlement patterns. regional policies and planning, on land use in Italy. Employing regional time-series panel data, an attempt is made to model the relationships between economic development and land USC. In a context where the Anglo-Italian experience is compared, attention is paid to the effects of late economic development. Three groups of Italian regions are identified: the old industrialised North-West, the newly industriaiised North-East-Centre and the less-developed South. The conclusions stress how late economic development has had a remarkable and wide impact on land use.
1. Introduction
values and uses in relation to various other factors, in addition to the distance from urban centres, thus providing a more plausible explanation of land-use systems (Alonso, 1964). Moreover, with economic and industrial development and substantial improvements in transport facilities, the role played by distance has become less important, particularly over the past 30-40 years. People and industries have become increasingly less restricted in their choices of location and it has been possible to spread economic development throughout the land system, progressively involving more remote areas. In other words, economic development has created an economic space based on regions articulated by a hierarchy of dominant and subdominant central places, stretching from cities to rural areas.
The distribution of land uses has been studied within various disciplines and by many different scholars. Among classical economists Ricardo (1817), starting with the hypothesis that agricultural land becomes increasingly scarce in the face of a growing population, constructed a development theory based on economic rent. Von Thunen (18X), on the other hand, emphasised how agricultural land uses around cities are affected by the distance factor, which also results in an economic rent. Von Thunen’s theory was taken up again in neoclassical economics by Marshall (1890), who considered the effects of distance on land-use patterns within urban areas. However, von Thunen had a much wider influence on the German school of geography and land economics, notably on Christaller (1933) and Losch (1943), who formulated the well-known theories of central places, urban hierarchies and distribution of cities. Later on, the ‘regional&’ provided an effective synthesis of geography and economics. Dunn (1954) and Isard (1956) proposed a general theory of land use based on the distance from urban centres, transportation costs and economic rent. Pointing out market failures, and hence the need for planning, later models attempted to explain land --
_-_.
__-_-
._--_.
.-
Although the effects of economic development on land use and the rural areas have been examined, for example by Clark (1967), who analysed urban and demographic growth, and Bicanic (1969), who pointed out trends in the agricultural area and alternative land uses, in general economists have not taken much account of the evolution and distribution of the land use. The particular concern of this paper is the effect of late economic development on the evolution and distribution of land uses. It underlines how regions characterised by late economic development [Bagnasco (1977); Fua (1980a,b, 1983)], such as NorthEast and Central Italy, exhibit quite peculiar landuse patterns.
-- _ __
*The research was supported by Consiglio Nazionale Ricerche, special project Incremcnto Produttivita Agricoltura (CNR-IPRA) and by Minister0 Ricerca Scientifica, fund 40%. Italy. 445
446
Maurizio
2. The framework
for the empirical
analysis
The analysis of the effects of economic development on land use is carried out by considering Italian trends taking place during this century. Some comparisons are made with English experience because of its very early development. Italian data relating to the last 40 years are disaggregated for the 19 administrative regions. A multiple regression model is constructed in order to analyse the influence of other factors, besides economic development, on land-use evolution in Italy.
-
_..
‘Urban development referred to both urban and rural areas was taken in the wider sense, to include housing, industrial and commercial buildings with associated nonbuilt areas, public buildings and related areas, roads, urban parks. sports grounds, etc. Obviously it is difficult to quantify the different uses due to variations in definitions and in the survey methods. As far as the Italian data arc concerned, reference is made to elaboration from Istituto Centralc Statistiche (ISTAT) official data and similar analyses carried out by the English geographer Best (1981) (see also Anderson and Best, 1984). It is evident, however. that the data employed may give rise to objections. One example is due to agricultural buildings being considered as urban area by Italian and not by the English data. However, in the general context of the analysis this difference should not affect the results. Incidentally, the entire literature regarding land use (Briggs and Wyatt, 1988) emphasises the problem of statistical information, with arguments among researchers (Best, 1981; Raup, 1982). It should be pointed out that the Italian data used in the analysis are substantially confirmed by specific local surveys recently undertaken by Consiglio Nazionale Ricerche-Increment0 Produttivita Agricoltura (CNR-IPRA) (1989) with great care and attention to details. ‘The per capita reference. accounting for population, seems to give a clear-cut view of the issue; however, previous studies have shown (Best. 1981) how population trends do not appear to have immediate impacts on the size of urban areas. It should also be emphasised that despite migration from South to Northern Italy, the population trends are not so different among the Italian regions: over the past SO years population increases have been evenly spread throughout the Country (+44.7% in the North-West, +32.9% in the North-East-Centre and + 36.4% in the South and Islands). Differential birth rates have been offset by internal migration. ‘Physical variables (e.g. urban and agricultural land) are stock evolving through time. while GDP is an annual flow. However, it is clear that land stocks are able to produce annually a flow of urban scrviccs and agricultural production to a large extent proportional to the stocks {McInerney, 1976). The analysis could have been undertaken by referring to a factorial model. This approach was abandoned as it did not provide concrete advantages in terms of explanation. It was preferred to base the analysis on concrete variables that were more significant with regard to land use, and, hence. easier to understand.
Merlo The following
aspects
are considered:
Urban development’ is regarded as the key element of any land-use system, summarising the impact of economic development on land use. It is expressed with reference to the total population as Urban Land per cupitu ( ULpc), a variable which, along with population density, is often considered in land-use analysis.’ (ii) Economic development is regarded as an approximate measure of the demand for land and is expressed by Gross Domestic Product per cupitn (GDPpc), a variable which is commonly used to measure economic devclopment and the level of demand. (iii) Lund availability is taken as an indicator of the supply of land resources. It is expressed as Agricultural Land per capita (A Lpc). Forests, barren land and urban areas are excluded, because they have no effective influence on the supply of new land for urban development. In Italy, forest land. besides being commonly located in remote areas, is dedicated by law to its present use, while the barren land is largely in inaccessible mountainous locations. Settlement pattern is related both to the more (iv) recent effects of economic development and to historic-cultural factors. It can be represented by the respective percentage of the population living in major cities, medium-sized or small towns, or in hamlets and isolated houses. (v) Regional policies and planning signify actions carried out in order to promote development and to rationalise its impact on land use. Obviously it is difficult to express these policies in the form of quantitative values. Although reference is made to public spending on infrastructure, planning typologies, applications for building permission etc., qualitative considerations are generally adopted, as it is impossible to make valid deductions for the entire country from local case studies and surveys. (i)
of the different variables3 is further The meaning examined in the analysis and attention is drawn to their roles as proxies for the various factors influencing land use.’
3. Economic
development
Historical analysis of the Italian experience shows that economic development is, in itself, the key factor determining land-use evolution over this century, while at the same time activating other factors which can influence the size and pattern of urban development. Trends, however, appear to vary over time (Table 1 and Fig. l), such that three
The Effects
of Late Economic
phases can be proposed.’ In the course of the analysis. :illowing for the lag due to Italy’s later economic development, comparison is made with England,” a country of particular interest because of its very early economic development, and the similarity of its land resources with Italy.’ Phase of preliminary industrialisation (until the mid-1950s in Italy and about 1870 in England). In this phase, the urban and industrial impact on rural land use appeared to be rather restricted. The urban area, even if increasing in absolute terms, decreased in per capita terms. Evidence of this phenomenon is given by Clark amongst others (Best, 1981; Hall. (l967), 1974). He underlines how ‘the advent of the nineteenth-century industrial city compelled people to live at greater densities than had ever been known before’. The agricultural land area. on the other hand, tended to increase in order to meet the growing population’s demand for food. This trend in Italy and England was mainly expressed by land reclamation and forest clearance. Similar evidence can be found in the experience of many countries (Bicanic, 1969). (ii) Phuse of accelerating socio-economic development (from the 1950s to the 1970s in Italy, and in England from the end of the last century to the l94Os-1950s). In this phase economic without dramatic increases in development, population. had a significant impact on land use. Urban areas increased significantly in size as people began to look for more living space sports grounds and other houses, gardens, facilities. Thus, to some extent, land took on the characteristics of a consumer good. In addition, economic growth was associated with a great increase in the need for infrastructures such as roads, airports. and other public areas. .--_.. .‘The attempt to relate economic development to land use
(i)
is in line with more general understanding; see Rostow’s (1960) stages of economic growth. which, although not concerned with land-use evolution, parallel to some extent the phases here presented exclusively concerned with land use. Quite clearly in the present paper preliminary industralisation can be compared with his ‘take-off’ stage that comes after the ‘traditional society’; then accelerating socioeconomic development corresponds to the ‘drive to maturity’ stage. while the mature industrial economy corresponds largely to the ‘mass consumption’ stage. “England’ is used throughout this article to represent England and Wales. ‘England (together with Wales) and Italy nowadays present a similar size of population (50 and 57 million) and a comparable endowment of agricultural land given that the I7 million hectares of ‘cultivated’ farm land in Italy, which are often mountainous or hilly and non-irrigated, can he related to the English 10 million hectares. Moreover, the industrial level of the two countries is also similar in terms of GDP.
(iii)
Development
447
The effect of this combination of public and private requirements was amplified by the availability of mass transportation trains and, in this century. private cars. People were able to move from the urban centres, making it possible to meet the growing demand for space. Location rent became less important (OECD, lY79). At the same time, the agricultural land area decreased owing to abandonment of marginal land and urban development. A similar trend in urban area is evident in England (Clark, 1967; Best, 1981). However, this occurred over a more prolonged period. Also the decrease in the agricultural land area started in England last century as compared with in the first half of this century in Italy, according to the evidence given by Bicanic (1969). Phase of mature-industrial economy (from the mid-1970s onwards in Italy and the 194Os-1950s in England). In this phase, economic development (without notable population increases) is accompanied by a decisive check on urban growth in England while in Italy it seems to have continued almost unabated. Agricultural land tends to decrease in both countries owing to policies of alternative uses and afforestation, and takes on a multipurpose character, encompassing environmental-landscape, conservation and recreation (Ferro, 1988).
Scrutiny of this mature-industrial economy phase gives rise to a certain perplexity because of the Anglo-Italian differences in urban growth. Several explanations could be given. The English check is certainly due to post-war recovery and above all the introduction of the Town and Country Planning Act in 1947. The persistence of urban growth in Italy can be explained by various reasons, among which is the country’s late economic development, which involved a specific and significant impact on land use, as this paper attempts to demonstrate. One must remember first of all that English preliminary industrialisation took place in a context of relatively high transportation costs - the railways were not widespread until 1850 and electricity distribution did not exist. The locations of ports, coal and raw materials fixed a land system which was maintained over time (Hall, 1974), even when transportation represented a less binding constraint. The same cannot be said for Italy, which benefited from railways and electricity distribution right from the early stages of development. Also, ihe more recently developed areas were provided with private mass transport and modern telecommunications. Account should also be taken of the speed of Italian economic development and related urban growth, which happened in several regions over a span of a mere two to three decades; so fast, in fact. that the local
448
Maurizio
150
Merlo
L
1800
1820
1640
1860
1680
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
Figure I. Urban land and Gross Product per capira in the Anglo-Italian
2000
experience.
Sorcrces: England and Wales land-use statistics quoted for this century are due to Best (1981). For earlier years, the first reference was made to the pre-industrial estimate of Gregory King as reconsidered by Best (1981). King (1804) accounted in 1606 for 600,000 hectares of UL. However, this included orchards, gardens and waste land related to urban uses. This estimation was reduced to around 200,000 by Best (1981). Taking account of subsequent developments as described by various authors (Best, 1981; Clark, 1967; Hall, 1974) it can be estimated that the 670,000 hectares of UL registered by 1900 have been reached as follows: 260,000 ha by 1800; 300,(xX) ha by 1830 and 380,000 ha by 1870. However, the ULpc trend is determined, above all, by the dramatic population increase that had to be accommodated in urban industrial centres given that by 1830 the agricultural work force amounted only to 24.6% and by 1870 was further reduced to 15.1% of total employment. Italy land-use statistics for this century are due to elaboration of ISTAT data. The estimated UL at the end of last century is due to Direzione Generale per I’Agricoltura as reported in Annuari Statistici Italiani from 1894 to 1904. Italian figures for GDPpc in this century are due to elaboration of ISTAT data. For earlier data reference is made to an index worked out by Mitchell (1988). English GDPpc is based on CSO (1986). Earlier data are based on Mitchell (1988) index. In any case, prices are constant in 1985 lire and account has been made of the Lira/Pound exchange rate. The ratio between the English and the Italian GDPpc so calculated is in line with that indicated up to 1959 by Cole and Deane (1966).
authorities were totally unprepared for it, particularly in the medium and small towns and in rural areas. Generally speaking, the irreversibility of agricultural land shifting to urban uses (Hodge, 1984) was not properly considered. In fact, control over land use and development, if any, was not strict, and as a consequence urban development became more geographically dispersed and less restricted in Italy than in England and other northern European regions, where slower development allowed a more effective land-use management.
4. Other factors affecting land use: land availability, settlement patterns, regional policies and planning
Moving from time-series to cross-sectional data (i.e. the different Italian regions), other factors affecting land use can be identified, including land availability, settlement patterns, regional policies and planning. Land
a very
availability,
important
expressed as A Lpc, appears to be factor: there is a clear positive
36.7 40.6 48.9 52.6 55.4 57.1
.-
Population (million)
.-.
._
-.
2092 2276 3248 4991 9221 11.538
---
per capira (MM Ike)*
Gross Product
-.
--.-
58.4 51.7 38.0 25.8 IS.3 11.6
20,773 20,586 20,908 20,438 17,517 17,246
Agriculture __ .----
_--
15,193 14,873 15.760 15,302 12,313 12.259
Arable, orchards
-.
..-.
.~_,
1035 1832 1110 1011 3220 2899+
4564 5295 5761 6089 6306 64414t
Woodland
,_._____-_,
Rough grazing and abandoned land
----
Permanent grass ~5580 5713 5148 5136 5204 4986
Of which --~-
Land USC(OH) ha)
Table 1. Evolution of land use structure in Italy, 191G1985 ,___ --,, . . ..__ -....____ .--.
Agricultural employment (%)
*
“-l. .. -----
611 639 727 1131 1655 2164
Urban devclapment
“.--._.-
.-._ -
--
1003 1054 89.5 766 754 741
Unproductive land and extractive industries
.-_ ..-
27,986 29,406 29,401 29,435 29,452 29,464
Total land area _. .-
-
Sorrrcr:
as abandoned land have been reclassified in the Forest Inventory from ISTAT (various years) and 1SAFA (19X8).
Calculntcd
considered
”.,_, ,._
as woodland.
% 1910 value % Total land area ._.(I ,_-_._- -_. - .-- _ _-. _-_ .-_-..-__-. ..-.37 16.3 19.9 2.2 3.6 1910 100 100 100 74.2 54.3 6.2 1X.0 3.6 1929 111 109 70.0 50.6 19.4 2.2 X8 1955 133 155 If.5 38 19.6 3.0 6.5 71.1 53.6 2.5 1965 143 239 3.4 44 17.5 20.7 2.6 52.0 3.8 69.5 17.7 10.9 1975 151 21.4 2.6 441 s9.5 41.8 5.6 26 I985 156 9.9 552 21.8 2.5 20 58.5 41.6 16.9 7.3 _ _ _ ____ _ __.-...--__. ..__ _-.____ -_. -. .- ,.~. -_I .-.-._--_-..-. *At constant prices 1985 value. TAccording to the 1985 Forest Inventory the woodland figure is 8675 million hectares (Istituta Asscstamento Forestale Alpicoltura ISAFA, 1988): due to the different definitions used by the Istituto Ccntrak Statistiche (ISTAT) around 2 million of the hectares
1975 1985
1965
1929 is5
1910
Year ._..-_.
-.
450
Maurizio
linear correlation between D’Lpc and ALpc (r = 0.87 in the 1970s). Confirmation of this is provided by the experience of other developed countries.x Basically. land use appears to be influenced, ceferis puribus, by the ‘scarcity factor’ which affects prices and constrains urban growth where land is limited, giving rise to a more intensive use. In addition where land is scarce. and population density is high, a smaller amount per cupiru is used for roads. communication structures and other public spaces because of scale economies. The scarcity factor can also be seen in terms of senlernetlf pufrrrns. The major urban-industrial centres show low D’Lpc. By contrast, small settlements and suburban and sprawl development show higher ULpc. The situation is known by geographers as the ‘density-size rule’ (Best etal., 1973). In fact a correlation is found between ULpc and settlement patterns. In particular, with regard to the percentage of the population living in major towns (over 250,000 inhabitants). the correlation with ULpc is while it is positive (r = 0.44) negative (r = -0.73), with regard to the percentage of population living in hamlets or isolated houses. Regionul policies appear to increase the growth of urban land uses, from communications channels to residential areas. In order to promote economic development, space is given up lavishly. Clearly in problem areas there has been, and still is, failure to take account of uncertainty and irreversibility. It may be noted that in Italy the building industry very often appears to be at the core of regional policies because of its capacity to create employment. Conversely, planning seems to push towards urban containment and economy in the use of land _‘Examples can be reported of urban and agricultural land surface areas in a number of developed countries over the
1970-1980s (Best, 1981; Anderson
Canada Sweden U.S.A. Denmark Luxembourg France Germany Scotland Belgium The Netherlands England and Wales Ireland Italy
and Best, 1984):
ULpc (m’) 2340 1647 1373 782 566 500 483 471 456 383 358 316 226
Alpc (ha) 3.22 0.45 2.52 0.59 0.62 0.39 0.22 1.17 0.16 0.17 0.23 1.44 0.32
Among developed countries, Japan alone appears to have lower rates of ULpc than Italy (199 m’), and its A Lpc is as low as 0.048 ha (National Land Agency, 1980). The linear correlation in the various countries mentioned above (r = 0.75) is comparable to that of Italian regions.
iMerlo resources, involving, at the same time, protection and conservation of the environment. However, it is difficult to find variables for calculating the relations between regional policies, planning and land use. As a proxy - rather important in the Italian context account may be taken of per cupifa investment in public works, which exhibits a positive correlation with ULpc (r = 0.5-0.6 according to the various years examined). Moreover, it can easily be seen that ceferis paribrts ULpc has risen more rapidly in those regions which are less successful in applying planning controls.
5. An attempt at a general model of land use in Italy The analysis so far undertaken has shown how ULpc is correlated with GDpc, A Lpc. sefflenlenf putterns, regional policies and planning. These factors play somewhat differentiated roles which may be measured in some cases with reference to time series, that is. economic development expressed by GDf’pc, and in others with reference to crosssectional comparisons, that is. the differences amongst Italian regions as represented by ALpc, sertlemenr puffern, regional policies and planning. In order to provide an overall view of their roles, emphasising the effects specifically due to late economic development, an attempt is made to model land-use evolution through multiple regression analysis on panel data, referring to the Italian regions and the period from 1951 to 1985 that is, the socio-economic growth and the mature industrial economy phases. ULpc is treated as a dependent variable - a function of the various other variables affecting land use over time and space. Among the independent variables, GDfpc, the most important determinant of land use, responsible for activating the other factors mentioned before, is considered over time and over the different Italian regions. This has been done because it is important both to consider the consistent evolution of UL and GDP. particularly from the 1950s onwards, and to consider the different regional trends in land use and the notable imbalances with regard to the rate, type and phase of development. The ULpc and GDfpc relationship is specified as a simple long-term trend. without trying to point out precise cause and effect temporal lags. This is for two reasons: (i)
variables describing land use present problems of reliability’ of the individual annual data, which are not always consistent with data given by the censuses held every 10 years - a situaticln which often gives rise to adjustments in the ISTAT series; and
451
The Effects of Late Economic Development
and hamlets with reference to the 19 regions as average value over the period 1951-1985.
{ii) change in the land-use pattern in response to income growth is not an instantaneous event, nor does it occur everywhere after a given time lag.’
CL<,, LY;,Bt, Bz = parameters Thus the model is specified in a linear-static form, excluding any lag structure in the relationships between ULpc and GDfpc. Moreover, the possible role played by financial variables is excluded, as the available data regarding land use do not seem adequate to allow conclusions about possible effects. The relationship between ULpc, ALpc and setrlement patterns is estimated exclusively in spatial terms (referring to Italian regions), incorporating average agricultural areas and settlement patterns over the period analysed. In fact agricultural land, that is, the available stock of land, and settlement patterns do not vary significantly over time.
to be estimated.
The estimated parameters of the model shown in Table 2 are consistent with the hypotheses proposed in Sections 3 and 4: Economic development (GD Ppc) appears to be the major factor determining land-use evoiution and the growth of ULpc; (ii) ULpc increases, ceteris paribus, in proportion to land availability; {iii) Settlement patterns contribute to determining the amount of ULpc.
6)
Moreover, the differences between the regional coefficients (Table 2) allow the role played by the development phase and the technological context in which it took place to be defined. More specifically, the GDPpc coefficients - which, in a sense, express the propensity towards urban growth due to income increases - make possible a distinction between three groups of regions, the so-called GDPpc
The model is specified as follows, where the slope coefficients cy, differentiated by regions indicate regional trends estimated over time, while fit and pz indicate, respectively, the average influence of A Lpc and SP estimated over all regions combined. OLS estimators are adopted (Judge et a/., 1985):
Three Italies: ~LPc,.,
+
= a,
+
!
,= I
ai GDPpc,,
PI ALPc, + PzSP, + e,,,
in which: i t ULpc
=L 1 . . 19 regions = ti’me’ from 1951 to 1985 = Urban Land per cupita in square metres
of the 19 regions over the period 19511985 GDPpc = Gross Domestic Product per capita in million of lire (on average equivalent to around $lotKl) of the 19 regions over the period 1951-1985 ALpc = Agricuhurai land per capita in hectares of the 19 regions as average value over the period 1951-1985 SP = Settlement Patterns, that is, percentage of the population living in isolated houses -_-
-.__.._~
‘In the private sector it is often the result of income accumulation over time, while for the public sector, relationships are even less predictable - for example, the adoption of Keynesian and regional policies designed to boost the economy which are often anti-cyclical. ‘“With regard to verifying the hypotheses of three groups of regions, the differences between the coefficients is statistically significant for the North-West in relation to the South. The North-East-Centre, on the other hand, presents an intermediate situation in lint with national average,
North-West where the coefficients tend to take on the lowest values - average 16.02, min. 12.75, max. 18.79 - showing a low propensity towards urban growth; (ii) North-Eusr-Centre where the coefficients tend to fall in the middle of the range values average 24.75, min. 17.17, max. 38.83 demonstrating greater propensity towards urban growth; (iii) South and Islands where the coefficients tend to take on the highest values - average 41.92, min. 17.91, max. 60.89 -showing an outstanding tendency towards urban growth,
(0
The differences here noted, above all with regard to land use, have been previously recognised by sociologists and economists (Bagnasco, 1977; Fua, 1980a, 1983) for the very same three groups of regions in term of other various socio-economic indicators that justify the newly minted definition of Three Zra~jes. There are, however, some discrepancies in the coefficients of urban growth in Table 2 concerning above all Latium (the region of Rome in Central Italy) and Campania (the region of Naples in Southern Italy). Quite clearly the size of these two cities is in contrast with the rest of their respective regions, so much so that the effects of ALpc (density) and settfemeni pattern cannot adequately be expressed by the model.“’
Maurizio
452
___
.___
Tabie 2. Estimated
--__
_.
_ _.--..
parameters
___._
.--. -
Regions
.-
Met-lo
._-.
a,,
-.-.
of the land-use
-..
-
_
..---6.01
model*
.___~
a,
.~
-
(11.29)
Piedmont North-West Liguria Lombardy
V.G.
Trentino Emilia
A.T. Romagna
North-East-Centre Tuscany Marche Latium I
Umbria
Abruzzi
2.74
(11.84)
(0.43)
R?, -0.94
16.43 (1.61) 17.91 (1.94) 31.03 (1.94) 48.95
Molise
Campania Apulia Calabria
South and Islands
105.3
. --.
23.33 (I .39) 20.70 (1.14) 32.75 (1.10) 19.31 ( I .08) 25.42 (1.12) 20.50 (1.55) 17.17 11.18) 38.83 (1.51)
Veneto Friuli
P:!
17.38 (1.15) 18.79 (0.96) 12.75 (1.10) 15.17 (1.04)
Val d’Aosta
{
.._._ ._ .._____-_.
PI__
(I .98) Basilicata Sicily 1
Sardinia
*Standard
errors of estimation
A more detailed help a better
5.1.
description understanding
._ are given within
-______-.brackets.
of the Three f&dies can of the model.
The North-West
The regions where industrialisation began earlier in the nineteenth century (Piedmont, Lombardy, Liguria and Val d’Aosta) are included in the NorthWest, centred on the ‘industrial triangle’ of Milan, Turin and Genoa (Fig. 3). It is the part of Italy which most explicitly reflects the hypothesis of the three phases of development as experienced in England. Figure 2a indicates that despite having the highest GDPpc in Italy, the North-West shows a lower rate of urban growth than the North-East-Centre and the South of Italy. For example, once 200 m2 of ULpc
Statistical
-
60.89 (2.18) 2X.88 (1.98) 59.39 (2.35) sigmficance
. is over 99%
.-
_.-
in all cases.
was reached in 1965, it took another 20 years to reach 300 m2, while over the same period GD?‘pc increased by 218%, from 6.8 to 14.8 million iire constant prices. Moreover, the rate of urban growth per capita in the 1960s (4-5 m’/year) was practically the same as in the 1970s. In addition, annual urban growth (Table 3) appears to have been falling throughout the period. Thus it can be claimed that by the 1960s the North-West, with over 6 million iire of GDPpc, was already showing relationships between economic development and land use typical of a mature-industrial economy. The urban concentration around the Milan-Turin-Genoa triangle, determined by a pattern of development established in the nineteenth century and reflecting the lack of modern means of communication, acted as a restraint. As in the older industriaiised countries.
400
; *
Fl
1855
85
4 887
144
1951
301
19.35
Yeats
Source:
248 197
19?5
/
75
calculated
II6 176 654 14 703
4 289
149
t 965
ODPps
ULPC
L 1951 55
10f
’ 2oc c
0 *
2
L 300 a
:. a n
I:
500
(a) North-West
/
I
I
ISTAT
per
growth
(various
Domestic
land
2. Urban
+o 85
from
1
Figure
81
Grass
Urban
1 $951 1955 173 188
ULpc
and the Gross Domestic
years).
500
capita
at
-Centre
COfiStSnt
Product
2087 3 350
GDPps
(b) North-East
per
(sq.m.1
Product
capita
per c@rr
PriCeS
16
300
400
ot
132
1955
3 334 8518 7 889
198 308 394
1985 1975 1985
YOBfS
1 BOC 2 058
140
65
GDPpc
ULPC
55
l.OOOS)
75
and islands
- around
(c) South
(value
1951
lire
1951
C)-?-
1oc I-
Italics.
:
?
:
r 200
:
:: d
L
:, B n
U
Million
in the Three
1965
61
65
454
Maurizio
Figure 3. The
Three Centre.
Italics; North-West, South and Islands.
Merlo widespread effect upon land use. involving the entire land systems and not just the major towns (Fua, 1980b, 1983). In other words the existing settlement structure based on many minor centres. thanks to the easily available modern means of mass transportation and communication, was largely confirmed. Development was able to reach every small city, town or hamlet. In the meantime large tracts of land were offered by private developers and often by Local Authorities - who bought the land under compulsory purchase at low prices - also providing incentives and various facilities for industrial estates. Consequently there has been a lower density development than in the North-Western regions. Meanwhile, agriculture, largely ‘pre-capitalist’ until the 196Os, based on small holdings and sharecropping, was unable to resist urban growth. Instead, it released its hold on the land. giving room for new urban uses. Urban-rural mixture, or rurbanization, is the typical feature of many rural areas in North-East-Central Italy. The abovementioned ‘density-size rule’ is particularly apparent (Rest et al., 1974): the small size of the settlements makes for low population density or, in other words. a greater share of ULpc.
North-East-
urban growth took on the form of suburbanisation. Given the concentration, scale economies of land use for infrastructures were possible. A certain scarcity of land around industrial towns coupled with high agricultural land prices acted as a deterrent against low intensity urban land use. It should also be recalled that, as in England, the agriculture of the Western PO Valley had developed well before 1800 in terms of size and capital investment, subsequently showing a greater resistance to urban expansion.
Consequently, even when in the 1970s GDPpc reached quite high levels (about 8 million lire), marking a transition to the mature-industrial phase, urban expansion continued at a steady rate, reaching 400 m2 per capita in the 198Os, far more than in the North-West (Fig. 2b). The first signs of a slowdown in urban growth (Table 3), although still weak, have been observed only in the last decade.
5.3. 5.2.
The South and the Islands
The North-East-Centre The case of Southern Italy is different again, and problematical. Its economic development is still at a relatively early stage and seems to have an even more marked effect on the land use with sometimes devastating consequences on the landscape and the environment. Though urban growth exhibited a
Land-use patterns seem quite different where development was late and concentrated in the last few decades. This is the case of North-East-Central Italy where the industrial, residential and infrastructural growth in the 1960s and 1970s had a remarkable and Table 3. Urban growth .-..--_. North-West ~.._... Urban development Years _..~... .~-195s 173,920
in Italy by group of regions: North-West, ---_ _--North-East-Centre
__._~
_~
Annual growth .-.
Urban development _ _310,652
10,245 1965
276,368
1975
376.09 1
Annual growth
.----
North-East-Centre, South and Islands (hectares) -.-_.___. South-Islands Italy
.-.
Urban development
-..-
242,656 16,476
475,416
52,367 1,655,130
22,022 813,330
._--.-
40,423
21.344
20,789
Annual growth
1,131,462
593,115 .__.
..--..
13,702
21,051 685,924
- Urban development 727,228
379,678
9972 8070 1985 456,791 893,818 ~ ._~. _.-.. -. ._. _ - .-. Source: Calculated from ISTAT (various years).
Annual growth
50,881 2.163.939
The Effects of Late Economic Development
Settlement
RegIonal
455
Patterns
Pollcles
Aannmg
Figure
4. Factors
affecting economic development and
certain levelling out in the last decade (Fig. 2c and Table 3) it continues at a very high rate, typical of the accelerating socio-economic deveIopment phase. However, this phase has not yet been completed, as is indicated by a GDPpc in 1985 which is still around 7-8 million lire. This can be explained by the regional policies that provide infrastructures such as public works and industrial estates which take up substantial areas of land. These policies interact with the most recent widespread and spontaneous development which has. by now, taken place in various districts. In addition, urban growth seems not to be properly controlled by planning. ” Another factor contributing to urban growth seems to be the relatively high availabiIity of land at prices which are lower than in Central and Northern Italy. Therefore, it can be anticipated that within the next few years Southern Italy will have the highest ULpc. 6. Conclusions
Economic development, the major cause of land use evolution, appears to act in a diversified manner according to temporal and spatial factors: phase of transportation and communication development, technologies, land availability, settlement patterns, regional policies and planning. The interrelationships between these factors are quite evident with various and sometimes contrasting results. Isolation of the individual cause-effect relationship is not easy, as this paper has attempted to show. A general scheme
of the various
interrelationships
is presented
“Evidence of this is to be found in the widespread occurrence of illegal urban development, well documented by several surveys and by the number of applications requesting ~~~utoriu~ in accordance with the provisions of a recent Act relating to unauthorised buildings.
land use relationships.
in Fig. 4. The different relationships can be seen with reference to the so-called Three Itdies. In the North-West regions, where industriaiisation dates back to the nineteenth century and the matureindustrial phase was reached in the 196Os, the land use trend follows a similar pattern to the English one. On the other hand North-East and Central Italy appear to have experienced a certain coincidence of the preliminary industrialisation and the socioeconomic development phases, while a certain slowdown in urban growth has only been seen over the last decade. Urban growth, however, has reached an LIZ+ of 419 m*, which is much higher than in the North-West (301 m*). The Southern regions’ situation is different for various reasons not always easily understandable: although the mature-industrial phase has not been reached, a remarkable lJLpc (394 m2) is registered and is bound to increase owing to the combined effects of regional policies and widespread spontaneous development. Clearly, the Three ladies demonstrate their wellrecognised diversity as far as land use is concerned. Generally speaking, however, Italy is characterised by the North-East-Central pattern, that is, the Venice-Florence-Rome axis (Fig. 3) typifying Renaissance Italy with all its cities, arts and trades. The ‘late, but not traumatic’ development of the last 30 years (Fua, 1983) has done nothing but confirm the historic settlement patterns. Here, ceteris paribus, a high level of ULpc emerged with severe costs in terms of land absorption, environmental degradation and provision of public services. The agricultural situation is also unstable, because of the fragmentation of holdings, the lack of economic viability and the widespread pressure of urban development. If rural areas of Northern Europe have been notable for their ‘strong agricultures, but weak rural economies’ (Wibberley, 1981), NorthEast-Central Italy seems better defined by its strong rural economies but weak agricultural structures.
456
Maurizio
It is important to emphasise that in North-EastCentral Italy costs, both public and private, would have been lower if urban growth had been better controlled by land use policies and planning. However, it must be acknowledged that a very remarkable economic development was carried out in an extremely short time (1950-1980). This speed found Local Authorities politically and technically quite unprepared: politically, because key issues such as the uncertainty and irreversibility which accompany changes in the use of agricultural land or, even worse, the harmful effects on the landscape and the environment, were not clearly understood; or even if they were understood, there was a systematic serious underevaluation of future trends in preservation value rate (Hodge, 1984); technically because until the 197Os, most small- to medium-sized towns, not to mention villages, had no clear development plan prescribing zoning and building standards. Urban growth was subject only to planning permission delivered by the Borough Councils (Comuni), more than 8000 all over Italy, that could certainly refuse permission but in a context where they had to answer to pressure from local people, quite often landowners. ” Some 20-30 years ago the situation was certainly such as to require development at any cost, in order to avoid emigration and rural abandonment; however, the passage to the new reality of a mature industrial economy and the consequent need to control and direct development through strict and precise plans, was not immediately realised by local Councils, or by people in general. What is worrying is not the 400-500 m2 or ULpc which represents a favourable level of living space, but rather the sprawl and its impact on the environment and on agricultural structures, as well as the public costs of an extremely fragmented and discontinuous urban system. It is not the quantity but the poor quality of urban development which is of concern. On the other hand the various benefits of this situation, most prominently found in the NorthEast-Central regions, cannot be denied. There is continuity of earlier settlement patterns, complete involvement of rural areas in the development process, harmonious integration between different economic sectors - in short. a quality-of-life which does not renounce its provincial, if not rural connotations, but nevertheless produces incomes and services typical of a post-industrial society. To a _.--_--“The large number of landowners, not necessarily farmers in the proper sense of the term, that can ask for planning permission is in itself a problem in land use planning. quite obviously. for instance, the 2CO-300,ooO English farmers are more easily controlled than 2-3 million Italian landowners who are often involved in a variety of trades and hence can easily envisage alternative land uses including industry, trade, residence and tourism.
Met-lo certain extent the situation reminds what has been recently called ‘life space’ based on ‘agropolitan development’ (Friedman, 1988) or, more conventionally, integrated rural development. References W. (1964) Locution and Land Use. Towards a General Theory of Lund Rent. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachussets. Anderson, M. and Best, R. (1984) Land use structure and change in Britain, 1971 to 1981. The Planner 11, 21-24. Bagnasco, A. (1977) Tre Italie. La problematica territoriale dello sviluppo italiano. II Mulino, Bologna. Best, R. (1981) Lund Use ond Living Space. Methuen, London. Best, R., Jones, A. and Rogers, A. (1974) The density size rule. Urban Srudies 11, 201-208. Bicanic, R. (1969) Turning-points in economic development and agricultural policies. In Economic Problems of Agriculture in Industrial Societies, Papi, U. and Nunn. C. (eds). Macmillan, London. Briggs, D. and Wyatt, B. (1988) Rural land-use change in Europe. In Land Use and the European Environment, Whitby, M. and Ollerenshaw, J. (eds). Belhaven Press, London. Christaller, W. (1033) Die zentralen Orte in Suddeutschland (Jena). Central Places in Southern Germany. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs (translation 1966). Clark, C. (1967) Population Growth and Lund Use. Macmillan, London. Cole, W.A. and Deane, P. (1966) The growth of national incomes. In The Cambridge Economic History of Europe, Habakkuk, H. and Postan, M. (eds), Vol. VI. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Consiglio Nazionale Ricerche-Increment0 Produttivita Agricoltura (CNR-IPRA) (1988) Relazione di sintesi. In Interazione e competizione dei sistemi urbuni con l’agricoltura per l’uso della risorsa suolo, Agostini, D. and Prestamburgo, M. (eds). Pitagora Editrice, Bologna. Dunn, E. Jr (1954) The Location of Agricultural Production. University of Florida Press, Gainesville. Ferro, 0. (1988) Istituzioni di Politica Agraria. EdagriCole, Bologna. Friedman, J. (1988) Life Space and Economic Space: Essays in Third World Planning. Transaction Books. New Brunswick, New Jersey. Fua, G. (1980a) Problems of Lagged Development in OECD Europe: a Study of Six Countries. OECD, Paris (document No. 2277) (derestricted). Fua, G. ( 1980b) Problemi dello sviluppo tardivo in Europa. II Mulino, Bologna. Fua. G. (1983) L’industrializzazione nel Nord-Est e nel Centro. In lndustrializzazione senza fratture, FuB, G. and Zacchia, C. (eds). II Mulino, Bologna. Hall, P. (1974) Urban and Regional Planning. Penguin Books, Harmondsworth. Hodge, I. (1984) Uncertainty, irreversibility and the loss of agricultural land. Journal of Agricultural Economics 35, 191-202. Isard, W. (1956) Locution und Space-Economy. Wiley, New York. lstituto Assestamento Forestale Alpicoltura (ISAFA) (1988) Inventarioforestalenazionale 1985. Temi, Trento. Istituto Centrale Statistiche (ISTAT) (various years) Annuario Statistico Italiuno. Istituto Poligrafico dello Stato, Rome. Alonso,
The
Effects
of Late
Judge. G., Griffiths. W.. Hill, R. et al. (1985) The Theory u!nd Practice of Econometrics. Wiley, New York. Kln~. G. (1804) Natural and Political Observations und Conclusions Upon the State and Conditions of England. Ed. Chalmers, London. LGsch, A. (1943) The Economics of Locution. Yale University Press, New Haven (translation of 2nd Edn, 1954). Marshall, A. (1890) Principles of Economics. Book X, Chapter XI (Marginal Costs in Relation to Urban Lund Values). Macmillan, London (7th Edn. lY16). Mctnerney. J. (1976) The simple analytics of natural resource economics. Journal of Agricultural Economics 27. 31-52. Mitchell, B. (1988) Conseguenze della rivoluzione industriale: la dimensione statistica. In Le rivoluzioni de1 henessere, Melograni. P. and Ricossa, S. (eds). Ed. Laterza. Bari.
Economic
Development
457
National Land Agency (NLA) (1980) The Outline of the Annual Report on the Nutional Land Use 1980. Minato ku. Tokyo. OECD (1979) Agriculture in the Planning and Management of Peri-urban Areas. OECD. Paris. Raup, P. (1982) An agricultural critique of the National Agricultural Lands Study. Lund Economics 58, 260274. Ricardo, D. (1817) On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. London. Rostow, W. (1960) The Stages of Economic Growth. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. von Thiinen, J. ( 1826) Der Isolierte Staat in Beziehung auf Restock, Landwirtschaft und NationalBkonomie. Hamburg. Wibberley. G. (1981) Strong agricultures but weak rural economies. European Review of Agricultural Economics 8. 155-170.
loimui of Rrrrd Smttie.v.Vol. 7, No 4. pp. J-C-t9. 1991 Printed in Great Britain
The Effects of Late Economic Development on Land Use* Maurizio Merlo Department
of Land
and Agro-Forestry
Systems, University
of Padua, Padua. Italy
Abstract -
This paper examines the effects of various factors, such as economic and demographic development, land resource availability, settlement patterns. regional policies and planning, on land use in Italy. Employing regional time-series panel data, an attempt is made to model the relationships between economic development and land USC. In a context where the Anglo-Italian experience is compared, attention is paid to the effects of late economic development. Three groups of Italian regions are identified: the old industrialised North-West, the newly industriaiised North-East-Centre and the less-developed South. The conclusions stress how late economic development has had a remarkable and wide impact on land use.
1. Introduction
values and uses in relation to various other factors, in addition to the distance from urban centres, thus providing a more plausible explanation of land-use systems (Alonso, 1964). Moreover, with economic and industrial development and substantial improvements in transport facilities, the role played by distance has become less important, particularly over the past 30-40 years. People and industries have become increasingly less restricted in their choices of location and it has been possible to spread economic development throughout the land system, progressively involving more remote areas. In other words, economic development has created an economic space based on regions articulated by a hierarchy of dominant and subdominant central places, stretching from cities to rural areas.
The distribution of land uses has been studied within various disciplines and by many different scholars. Among classical economists Ricardo (1817), starting with the hypothesis that agricultural land becomes increasingly scarce in the face of a growing population, constructed a development theory based on economic rent. Von Thunen (18X), on the other hand, emphasised how agricultural land uses around cities are affected by the distance factor, which also results in an economic rent. Von Thunen’s theory was taken up again in neoclassical economics by Marshall (1890), who considered the effects of distance on land-use patterns within urban areas. However, von Thunen had a much wider influence on the German school of geography and land economics, notably on Christaller (1933) and Losch (1943), who formulated the well-known theories of central places, urban hierarchies and distribution of cities. Later on, the ‘regional&’ provided an effective synthesis of geography and economics. Dunn (1954) and Isard (1956) proposed a general theory of land use based on the distance from urban centres, transportation costs and economic rent. Pointing out market failures, and hence the need for planning, later models attempted to explain land --
_-_.
__-_-
._--_.
.-
Although the effects of economic development on land use and the rural areas have been examined, for example by Clark (1967), who analysed urban and demographic growth, and Bicanic (1969), who pointed out trends in the agricultural area and alternative land uses, in general economists have not taken much account of the evolution and distribution of the land use. The particular concern of this paper is the effect of late economic development on the evolution and distribution of land uses. It underlines how regions characterised by late economic development [Bagnasco (1977); Fua (1980a,b, 1983)], such as NorthEast and Central Italy, exhibit quite peculiar landuse patterns.
-- _ __
*The research was supported by Consiglio Nazionale Ricerche, special project Incremcnto Produttivita Agricoltura (CNR-IPRA) and by Minister0 Ricerca Scientifica, fund 40%. Italy. 445
446
Maurizio
2. The framework
for the empirical
analysis
The analysis of the effects of economic development on land use is carried out by considering Italian trends taking place during this century. Some comparisons are made with English experience because of its very early development. Italian data relating to the last 40 years are disaggregated for the 19 administrative regions. A multiple regression model is constructed in order to analyse the influence of other factors, besides economic development, on land-use evolution in Italy.
-
_..
‘Urban development referred to both urban and rural areas was taken in the wider sense, to include housing, industrial and commercial buildings with associated nonbuilt areas, public buildings and related areas, roads, urban parks. sports grounds, etc. Obviously it is difficult to quantify the different uses due to variations in definitions and in the survey methods. As far as the Italian data arc concerned, reference is made to elaboration from Istituto Centralc Statistiche (ISTAT) official data and similar analyses carried out by the English geographer Best (1981) (see also Anderson and Best, 1984). It is evident, however. that the data employed may give rise to objections. One example is due to agricultural buildings being considered as urban area by Italian and not by the English data. However, in the general context of the analysis this difference should not affect the results. Incidentally, the entire literature regarding land use (Briggs and Wyatt, 1988) emphasises the problem of statistical information, with arguments among researchers (Best, 1981; Raup, 1982). It should be pointed out that the Italian data used in the analysis are substantially confirmed by specific local surveys recently undertaken by Consiglio Nazionale Ricerche-Increment0 Produttivita Agricoltura (CNR-IPRA) (1989) with great care and attention to details. ‘The per capita reference. accounting for population, seems to give a clear-cut view of the issue; however, previous studies have shown (Best. 1981) how population trends do not appear to have immediate impacts on the size of urban areas. It should also be emphasised that despite migration from South to Northern Italy, the population trends are not so different among the Italian regions: over the past SO years population increases have been evenly spread throughout the Country (+44.7% in the North-West, +32.9% in the North-East-Centre and + 36.4% in the South and Islands). Differential birth rates have been offset by internal migration. ‘Physical variables (e.g. urban and agricultural land) are stock evolving through time. while GDP is an annual flow. However, it is clear that land stocks are able to produce annually a flow of urban scrviccs and agricultural production to a large extent proportional to the stocks {McInerney, 1976). The analysis could have been undertaken by referring to a factorial model. This approach was abandoned as it did not provide concrete advantages in terms of explanation. It was preferred to base the analysis on concrete variables that were more significant with regard to land use, and, hence. easier to understand.
Merlo The following
aspects
are considered:
Urban development’ is regarded as the key element of any land-use system, summarising the impact of economic development on land use. It is expressed with reference to the total population as Urban Land per cupitu ( ULpc), a variable which, along with population density, is often considered in land-use analysis.’ (ii) Economic development is regarded as an approximate measure of the demand for land and is expressed by Gross Domestic Product per cupitn (GDPpc), a variable which is commonly used to measure economic devclopment and the level of demand. (iii) Lund availability is taken as an indicator of the supply of land resources. It is expressed as Agricultural Land per capita (A Lpc). Forests, barren land and urban areas are excluded, because they have no effective influence on the supply of new land for urban development. In Italy, forest land. besides being commonly located in remote areas, is dedicated by law to its present use, while the barren land is largely in inaccessible mountainous locations. Settlement pattern is related both to the more (iv) recent effects of economic development and to historic-cultural factors. It can be represented by the respective percentage of the population living in major cities, medium-sized or small towns, or in hamlets and isolated houses. (v) Regional policies and planning signify actions carried out in order to promote development and to rationalise its impact on land use. Obviously it is difficult to express these policies in the form of quantitative values. Although reference is made to public spending on infrastructure, planning typologies, applications for building permission etc., qualitative considerations are generally adopted, as it is impossible to make valid deductions for the entire country from local case studies and surveys. (i)
of the different variables3 is further The meaning examined in the analysis and attention is drawn to their roles as proxies for the various factors influencing land use.’
3. Economic
development
Historical analysis of the Italian experience shows that economic development is, in itself, the key factor determining land-use evolution over this century, while at the same time activating other factors which can influence the size and pattern of urban development. Trends, however, appear to vary over time (Table 1 and Fig. l), such that three
The Effects
of Late Economic
phases can be proposed.’ In the course of the analysis. :illowing for the lag due to Italy’s later economic development, comparison is made with England,” a country of particular interest because of its very early economic development, and the similarity of its land resources with Italy.’ Phase of preliminary industrialisation (until the mid-1950s in Italy and about 1870 in England). In this phase, the urban and industrial impact on rural land use appeared to be rather restricted. The urban area, even if increasing in absolute terms, decreased in per capita terms. Evidence of this phenomenon is given by Clark amongst others (Best, 1981; Hall. (l967), 1974). He underlines how ‘the advent of the nineteenth-century industrial city compelled people to live at greater densities than had ever been known before’. The agricultural land area. on the other hand, tended to increase in order to meet the growing population’s demand for food. This trend in Italy and England was mainly expressed by land reclamation and forest clearance. Similar evidence can be found in the experience of many countries (Bicanic, 1969). (ii) Phuse of accelerating socio-economic development (from the 1950s to the 1970s in Italy, and in England from the end of the last century to the l94Os-1950s). In this phase economic without dramatic increases in development, population. had a significant impact on land use. Urban areas increased significantly in size as people began to look for more living space sports grounds and other houses, gardens, facilities. Thus, to some extent, land took on the characteristics of a consumer good. In addition, economic growth was associated with a great increase in the need for infrastructures such as roads, airports. and other public areas. .--_.. .‘The attempt to relate economic development to land use
(i)
is in line with more general understanding; see Rostow’s (1960) stages of economic growth. which, although not concerned with land-use evolution, parallel to some extent the phases here presented exclusively concerned with land use. Quite clearly in the present paper preliminary industralisation can be compared with his ‘take-off’ stage that comes after the ‘traditional society’; then accelerating socioeconomic development corresponds to the ‘drive to maturity’ stage. while the mature industrial economy corresponds largely to the ‘mass consumption’ stage. “England’ is used throughout this article to represent England and Wales. ‘England (together with Wales) and Italy nowadays present a similar size of population (50 and 57 million) and a comparable endowment of agricultural land given that the I7 million hectares of ‘cultivated’ farm land in Italy, which are often mountainous or hilly and non-irrigated, can he related to the English 10 million hectares. Moreover, the industrial level of the two countries is also similar in terms of GDP.
(iii)
Development
447
The effect of this combination of public and private requirements was amplified by the availability of mass transportation trains and, in this century. private cars. People were able to move from the urban centres, making it possible to meet the growing demand for space. Location rent became less important (OECD, lY79). At the same time, the agricultural land area decreased owing to abandonment of marginal land and urban development. A similar trend in urban area is evident in England (Clark, 1967; Best, 1981). However, this occurred over a more prolonged period. Also the decrease in the agricultural land area started in England last century as compared with in the first half of this century in Italy, according to the evidence given by Bicanic (1969). Phase of mature-industrial economy (from the mid-1970s onwards in Italy and the 194Os-1950s in England). In this phase, economic development (without notable population increases) is accompanied by a decisive check on urban growth in England while in Italy it seems to have continued almost unabated. Agricultural land tends to decrease in both countries owing to policies of alternative uses and afforestation, and takes on a multipurpose character, encompassing environmental-landscape, conservation and recreation (Ferro, 1988).
Scrutiny of this mature-industrial economy phase gives rise to a certain perplexity because of the Anglo-Italian differences in urban growth. Several explanations could be given. The English check is certainly due to post-war recovery and above all the introduction of the Town and Country Planning Act in 1947. The persistence of urban growth in Italy can be explained by various reasons, among which is the country’s late economic development, which involved a specific and significant impact on land use, as this paper attempts to demonstrate. One must remember first of all that English preliminary industrialisation took place in a context of relatively high transportation costs - the railways were not widespread until 1850 and electricity distribution did not exist. The locations of ports, coal and raw materials fixed a land system which was maintained over time (Hall, 1974), even when transportation represented a less binding constraint. The same cannot be said for Italy, which benefited from railways and electricity distribution right from the early stages of development. Also, ihe more recently developed areas were provided with private mass transport and modern telecommunications. Account should also be taken of the speed of Italian economic development and related urban growth, which happened in several regions over a span of a mere two to three decades; so fast, in fact. that the local
448
Maurizio
150
Merlo
L
1800
1820
1640
1860
1680
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
Figure I. Urban land and Gross Product per capira in the Anglo-Italian
2000
experience.
Sorcrces: England and Wales land-use statistics quoted for this century are due to Best (1981). For earlier years, the first reference was made to the pre-industrial estimate of Gregory King as reconsidered by Best (1981). King (1804) accounted in 1606 for 600,000 hectares of UL. However, this included orchards, gardens and waste land related to urban uses. This estimation was reduced to around 200,000 by Best (1981). Taking account of subsequent developments as described by various authors (Best, 1981; Clark, 1967; Hall, 1974) it can be estimated that the 670,000 hectares of UL registered by 1900 have been reached as follows: 260,000 ha by 1800; 300,(xX) ha by 1830 and 380,000 ha by 1870. However, the ULpc trend is determined, above all, by the dramatic population increase that had to be accommodated in urban industrial centres given that by 1830 the agricultural work force amounted only to 24.6% and by 1870 was further reduced to 15.1% of total employment. Italy land-use statistics for this century are due to elaboration of ISTAT data. The estimated UL at the end of last century is due to Direzione Generale per I’Agricoltura as reported in Annuari Statistici Italiani from 1894 to 1904. Italian figures for GDPpc in this century are due to elaboration of ISTAT data. For earlier data reference is made to an index worked out by Mitchell (1988). English GDPpc is based on CSO (1986). Earlier data are based on Mitchell (1988) index. In any case, prices are constant in 1985 lire and account has been made of the Lira/Pound exchange rate. The ratio between the English and the Italian GDPpc so calculated is in line with that indicated up to 1959 by Cole and Deane (1966).
authorities were totally unprepared for it, particularly in the medium and small towns and in rural areas. Generally speaking, the irreversibility of agricultural land shifting to urban uses (Hodge, 1984) was not properly considered. In fact, control over land use and development, if any, was not strict, and as a consequence urban development became more geographically dispersed and less restricted in Italy than in England and other northern European regions, where slower development allowed a more effective land-use management.
4. Other factors affecting land use: land availability, settlement patterns, regional policies and planning
Moving from time-series to cross-sectional data (i.e. the different Italian regions), other factors affecting land use can be identified, including land availability, settlement patterns, regional policies and planning. Land
a very
availability,
important
expressed as A Lpc, appears to be factor: there is a clear positive
36.7 40.6 48.9 52.6 55.4 57.1
.-
Population (million)
.-.
._
-.
2092 2276 3248 4991 9221 11.538
---
per capira (MM Ike)*
Gross Product
-.
--.-
58.4 51.7 38.0 25.8 IS.3 11.6
20,773 20,586 20,908 20,438 17,517 17,246
Agriculture __ .----
_--
15,193 14,873 15.760 15,302 12,313 12.259
Arable, orchards
-.
..-.
.~_,
1035 1832 1110 1011 3220 2899+
4564 5295 5761 6089 6306 64414t
Woodland
,_._____-_,
Rough grazing and abandoned land
----
Permanent grass ~5580 5713 5148 5136 5204 4986
Of which --~-
Land USC(OH) ha)
Table 1. Evolution of land use structure in Italy, 191G1985 ,___ --,, . . ..__ -....____ .--.
Agricultural employment (%)
*
“-l. .. -----
611 639 727 1131 1655 2164
Urban devclapment
“.--._.-
.-._ -
--
1003 1054 89.5 766 754 741
Unproductive land and extractive industries
.-_ ..-
27,986 29,406 29,401 29,435 29,452 29,464
Total land area _. .-
-
Sorrrcr:
as abandoned land have been reclassified in the Forest Inventory from ISTAT (various years) and 1SAFA (19X8).
Calculntcd
considered
”.,_, ,._
as woodland.
% 1910 value % Total land area ._.(I ,_-_._- -_. - .-- _ _-. _-_ .-_-..-__-. ..-.37 16.3 19.9 2.2 3.6 1910 100 100 100 74.2 54.3 6.2 1X.0 3.6 1929 111 109 70.0 50.6 19.4 2.2 X8 1955 133 155 If.5 38 19.6 3.0 6.5 71.1 53.6 2.5 1965 143 239 3.4 44 17.5 20.7 2.6 52.0 3.8 69.5 17.7 10.9 1975 151 21.4 2.6 441 s9.5 41.8 5.6 26 I985 156 9.9 552 21.8 2.5 20 58.5 41.6 16.9 7.3 _ _ _ ____ _ __.-...--__. ..__ _-.____ -_. -. .- ,.~. -_I .-.-._--_-..-. *At constant prices 1985 value. TAccording to the 1985 Forest Inventory the woodland figure is 8675 million hectares (Istituta Asscstamento Forestale Alpicoltura ISAFA, 1988): due to the different definitions used by the Istituto Ccntrak Statistiche (ISTAT) around 2 million of the hectares
1975 1985
1965
1929 is5
1910
Year ._..-_.
-.
450
Maurizio
linear correlation between D’Lpc and ALpc (r = 0.87 in the 1970s). Confirmation of this is provided by the experience of other developed countries.x Basically. land use appears to be influenced, ceferis puribus, by the ‘scarcity factor’ which affects prices and constrains urban growth where land is limited, giving rise to a more intensive use. In addition where land is scarce. and population density is high, a smaller amount per cupiru is used for roads. communication structures and other public spaces because of scale economies. The scarcity factor can also be seen in terms of senlernetlf pufrrrns. The major urban-industrial centres show low D’Lpc. By contrast, small settlements and suburban and sprawl development show higher ULpc. The situation is known by geographers as the ‘density-size rule’ (Best etal., 1973). In fact a correlation is found between ULpc and settlement patterns. In particular, with regard to the percentage of the population living in major towns (over 250,000 inhabitants). the correlation with ULpc is while it is positive (r = 0.44) negative (r = -0.73), with regard to the percentage of population living in hamlets or isolated houses. Regionul policies appear to increase the growth of urban land uses, from communications channels to residential areas. In order to promote economic development, space is given up lavishly. Clearly in problem areas there has been, and still is, failure to take account of uncertainty and irreversibility. It may be noted that in Italy the building industry very often appears to be at the core of regional policies because of its capacity to create employment. Conversely, planning seems to push towards urban containment and economy in the use of land _‘Examples can be reported of urban and agricultural land surface areas in a number of developed countries over the
1970-1980s (Best, 1981; Anderson
Canada Sweden U.S.A. Denmark Luxembourg France Germany Scotland Belgium The Netherlands England and Wales Ireland Italy
and Best, 1984):
ULpc (m’) 2340 1647 1373 782 566 500 483 471 456 383 358 316 226
Alpc (ha) 3.22 0.45 2.52 0.59 0.62 0.39 0.22 1.17 0.16 0.17 0.23 1.44 0.32
Among developed countries, Japan alone appears to have lower rates of ULpc than Italy (199 m’), and its A Lpc is as low as 0.048 ha (National Land Agency, 1980). The linear correlation in the various countries mentioned above (r = 0.75) is comparable to that of Italian regions.
iMerlo resources, involving, at the same time, protection and conservation of the environment. However, it is difficult to find variables for calculating the relations between regional policies, planning and land use. As a proxy - rather important in the Italian context account may be taken of per cupifa investment in public works, which exhibits a positive correlation with ULpc (r = 0.5-0.6 according to the various years examined). Moreover, it can easily be seen that ceferis paribrts ULpc has risen more rapidly in those regions which are less successful in applying planning controls.
5. An attempt at a general model of land use in Italy The analysis so far undertaken has shown how ULpc is correlated with GDpc, A Lpc. sefflenlenf putterns, regional policies and planning. These factors play somewhat differentiated roles which may be measured in some cases with reference to time series, that is. economic development expressed by GDf’pc, and in others with reference to crosssectional comparisons, that is. the differences amongst Italian regions as represented by ALpc, sertlemenr puffern, regional policies and planning. In order to provide an overall view of their roles, emphasising the effects specifically due to late economic development, an attempt is made to model land-use evolution through multiple regression analysis on panel data, referring to the Italian regions and the period from 1951 to 1985 that is, the socio-economic growth and the mature industrial economy phases. ULpc is treated as a dependent variable - a function of the various other variables affecting land use over time and space. Among the independent variables, GDfpc, the most important determinant of land use, responsible for activating the other factors mentioned before, is considered over time and over the different Italian regions. This has been done because it is important both to consider the consistent evolution of UL and GDP. particularly from the 1950s onwards, and to consider the different regional trends in land use and the notable imbalances with regard to the rate, type and phase of development. The ULpc and GDfpc relationship is specified as a simple long-term trend. without trying to point out precise cause and effect temporal lags. This is for two reasons: (i)
variables describing land use present problems of reliability’ of the individual annual data, which are not always consistent with data given by the censuses held every 10 years - a situaticln which often gives rise to adjustments in the ISTAT series; and
451
The Effects of Late Economic Development
and hamlets with reference to the 19 regions as average value over the period 1951-1985.
{ii) change in the land-use pattern in response to income growth is not an instantaneous event, nor does it occur everywhere after a given time lag.’
CL<,, LY;,Bt, Bz = parameters Thus the model is specified in a linear-static form, excluding any lag structure in the relationships between ULpc and GDfpc. Moreover, the possible role played by financial variables is excluded, as the available data regarding land use do not seem adequate to allow conclusions about possible effects. The relationship between ULpc, ALpc and setrlement patterns is estimated exclusively in spatial terms (referring to Italian regions), incorporating average agricultural areas and settlement patterns over the period analysed. In fact agricultural land, that is, the available stock of land, and settlement patterns do not vary significantly over time.
to be estimated.
The estimated parameters of the model shown in Table 2 are consistent with the hypotheses proposed in Sections 3 and 4: Economic development (GD Ppc) appears to be the major factor determining land-use evoiution and the growth of ULpc; (ii) ULpc increases, ceteris paribus, in proportion to land availability; {iii) Settlement patterns contribute to determining the amount of ULpc.
6)
Moreover, the differences between the regional coefficients (Table 2) allow the role played by the development phase and the technological context in which it took place to be defined. More specifically, the GDPpc coefficients - which, in a sense, express the propensity towards urban growth due to income increases - make possible a distinction between three groups of regions, the so-called GDPpc
The model is specified as follows, where the slope coefficients cy, differentiated by regions indicate regional trends estimated over time, while fit and pz indicate, respectively, the average influence of A Lpc and SP estimated over all regions combined. OLS estimators are adopted (Judge et a/., 1985):
Three Italies: ~LPc,.,
+
= a,
+
!
,= I
ai GDPpc,,
PI ALPc, + PzSP, + e,,,
in which: i t ULpc
=L 1 . . 19 regions = ti’me’ from 1951 to 1985 = Urban Land per cupita in square metres
of the 19 regions over the period 19511985 GDPpc = Gross Domestic Product per capita in million of lire (on average equivalent to around $lotKl) of the 19 regions over the period 1951-1985 ALpc = Agricuhurai land per capita in hectares of the 19 regions as average value over the period 1951-1985 SP = Settlement Patterns, that is, percentage of the population living in isolated houses -_-
-.__.._~
‘In the private sector it is often the result of income accumulation over time, while for the public sector, relationships are even less predictable - for example, the adoption of Keynesian and regional policies designed to boost the economy which are often anti-cyclical. ‘“With regard to verifying the hypotheses of three groups of regions, the differences between the coefficients is statistically significant for the North-West in relation to the South. The North-East-Centre, on the other hand, presents an intermediate situation in lint with national average,
North-West where the coefficients tend to take on the lowest values - average 16.02, min. 12.75, max. 18.79 - showing a low propensity towards urban growth; (ii) North-Eusr-Centre where the coefficients tend to fall in the middle of the range values average 24.75, min. 17.17, max. 38.83 demonstrating greater propensity towards urban growth; (iii) South and Islands where the coefficients tend to take on the highest values - average 41.92, min. 17.91, max. 60.89 -showing an outstanding tendency towards urban growth,
(0
The differences here noted, above all with regard to land use, have been previously recognised by sociologists and economists (Bagnasco, 1977; Fua, 1980a, 1983) for the very same three groups of regions in term of other various socio-economic indicators that justify the newly minted definition of Three Zra~jes. There are, however, some discrepancies in the coefficients of urban growth in Table 2 concerning above all Latium (the region of Rome in Central Italy) and Campania (the region of Naples in Southern Italy). Quite clearly the size of these two cities is in contrast with the rest of their respective regions, so much so that the effects of ALpc (density) and settfemeni pattern cannot adequately be expressed by the model.“’
Maurizio
452
___
.___
Tabie 2. Estimated
--__
_.
_ _.--..
parameters
___._
.--. -
Regions
.-
Met-lo
._-.
a,,
-.-.
of the land-use
-..
-
_
..---6.01
model*
.___~
a,
.~
-
(11.29)
Piedmont North-West Liguria Lombardy
V.G.
Trentino Emilia
A.T. Romagna
North-East-Centre Tuscany Marche Latium I
Umbria
Abruzzi
2.74
(11.84)
(0.43)
R?, -0.94
16.43 (1.61) 17.91 (1.94) 31.03 (1.94) 48.95
Molise
Campania Apulia Calabria
South and Islands
105.3
. --.
23.33 (I .39) 20.70 (1.14) 32.75 (1.10) 19.31 ( I .08) 25.42 (1.12) 20.50 (1.55) 17.17 11.18) 38.83 (1.51)
Veneto Friuli
P:!
17.38 (1.15) 18.79 (0.96) 12.75 (1.10) 15.17 (1.04)
Val d’Aosta
{
.._._ ._ .._____-_.
PI__
(I .98) Basilicata Sicily 1
Sardinia
*Standard
errors of estimation
A more detailed help a better
5.1.
description understanding
._ are given within
-______-.brackets.
of the Three f&dies can of the model.
The North-West
The regions where industrialisation began earlier in the nineteenth century (Piedmont, Lombardy, Liguria and Val d’Aosta) are included in the NorthWest, centred on the ‘industrial triangle’ of Milan, Turin and Genoa (Fig. 3). It is the part of Italy which most explicitly reflects the hypothesis of the three phases of development as experienced in England. Figure 2a indicates that despite having the highest GDPpc in Italy, the North-West shows a lower rate of urban growth than the North-East-Centre and the South of Italy. For example, once 200 m2 of ULpc
Statistical
-
60.89 (2.18) 2X.88 (1.98) 59.39 (2.35) sigmficance
. is over 99%
.-
_.-
in all cases.
was reached in 1965, it took another 20 years to reach 300 m2, while over the same period GD?‘pc increased by 218%, from 6.8 to 14.8 million iire constant prices. Moreover, the rate of urban growth per capita in the 1960s (4-5 m’/year) was practically the same as in the 1970s. In addition, annual urban growth (Table 3) appears to have been falling throughout the period. Thus it can be claimed that by the 1960s the North-West, with over 6 million iire of GDPpc, was already showing relationships between economic development and land use typical of a mature-industrial economy. The urban concentration around the Milan-Turin-Genoa triangle, determined by a pattern of development established in the nineteenth century and reflecting the lack of modern means of communication, acted as a restraint. As in the older industriaiised countries.
400
; *
Fl
1855
85
4 887
144
1951
301
19.35
Yeats
Source:
248 197
19?5
/
75
calculated
II6 176 654 14 703
4 289
149
t 965
ODPps
ULPC
L 1951 55
10f
’ 2oc c
0 *
2
L 300 a
:. a n
I:
500
(a) North-West
/
I
I
ISTAT
per
growth
(various
Domestic
land
2. Urban
+o 85
from
1
Figure
81
Grass
Urban
1 $951 1955 173 188
ULpc
and the Gross Domestic
years).
500
capita
at
-Centre
COfiStSnt
Product
2087 3 350
GDPps
(b) North-East
per
(sq.m.1
Product
capita
per c@rr
PriCeS
16
300
400
ot
132
1955
3 334 8518 7 889
198 308 394
1985 1975 1985
YOBfS
1 BOC 2 058
140
65
GDPpc
ULPC
55
l.OOOS)
75
and islands
- around
(c) South
(value
1951
lire
1951
C)-?-
1oc I-
Italics.
:
?
:
r 200
:
:: d
L
:, B n
U
Million
in the Three
1965
61
65
454
Maurizio
Figure 3. The
Three Centre.
Italics; North-West, South and Islands.
Merlo widespread effect upon land use. involving the entire land systems and not just the major towns (Fua, 1980b, 1983). In other words the existing settlement structure based on many minor centres. thanks to the easily available modern means of mass transportation and communication, was largely confirmed. Development was able to reach every small city, town or hamlet. In the meantime large tracts of land were offered by private developers and often by Local Authorities - who bought the land under compulsory purchase at low prices - also providing incentives and various facilities for industrial estates. Consequently there has been a lower density development than in the North-Western regions. Meanwhile, agriculture, largely ‘pre-capitalist’ until the 196Os, based on small holdings and sharecropping, was unable to resist urban growth. Instead, it released its hold on the land. giving room for new urban uses. Urban-rural mixture, or rurbanization, is the typical feature of many rural areas in North-East-Central Italy. The abovementioned ‘density-size rule’ is particularly apparent (Rest et al., 1974): the small size of the settlements makes for low population density or, in other words. a greater share of ULpc.
North-East-
urban growth took on the form of suburbanisation. Given the concentration, scale economies of land use for infrastructures were possible. A certain scarcity of land around industrial towns coupled with high agricultural land prices acted as a deterrent against low intensity urban land use. It should also be recalled that, as in England, the agriculture of the Western PO Valley had developed well before 1800 in terms of size and capital investment, subsequently showing a greater resistance to urban expansion.
Consequently, even when in the 1970s GDPpc reached quite high levels (about 8 million lire), marking a transition to the mature-industrial phase, urban expansion continued at a steady rate, reaching 400 m2 per capita in the 198Os, far more than in the North-West (Fig. 2b). The first signs of a slowdown in urban growth (Table 3), although still weak, have been observed only in the last decade.
5.3. 5.2.
The South and the Islands
The North-East-Centre The case of Southern Italy is different again, and problematical. Its economic development is still at a relatively early stage and seems to have an even more marked effect on the land use with sometimes devastating consequences on the landscape and the environment. Though urban growth exhibited a
Land-use patterns seem quite different where development was late and concentrated in the last few decades. This is the case of North-East-Central Italy where the industrial, residential and infrastructural growth in the 1960s and 1970s had a remarkable and Table 3. Urban growth .-..--_. North-West ~.._... Urban development Years _..~... .~-195s 173,920
in Italy by group of regions: North-West, ---_ _--North-East-Centre
__._~
_~
Annual growth .-.
Urban development _ _310,652
10,245 1965
276,368
1975
376.09 1
Annual growth
.----
North-East-Centre, South and Islands (hectares) -.-_.___. South-Islands Italy
.-.
Urban development
-..-
242,656 16,476
475,416
52,367 1,655,130
22,022 813,330
._--.-
40,423
21.344
20,789
Annual growth
1,131,462
593,115 .__.
..--..
13,702
21,051 685,924
- Urban development 727,228
379,678
9972 8070 1985 456,791 893,818 ~ ._~. _.-.. -. ._. _ - .-. Source: Calculated from ISTAT (various years).
Annual growth
50,881 2.163.939
The Effects of Late Economic Development
Settlement
RegIonal
455
Patterns
Pollcles
Aannmg
Figure
4. Factors
affecting economic development and
certain levelling out in the last decade (Fig. 2c and Table 3) it continues at a very high rate, typical of the accelerating socio-economic deveIopment phase. However, this phase has not yet been completed, as is indicated by a GDPpc in 1985 which is still around 7-8 million lire. This can be explained by the regional policies that provide infrastructures such as public works and industrial estates which take up substantial areas of land. These policies interact with the most recent widespread and spontaneous development which has. by now, taken place in various districts. In addition, urban growth seems not to be properly controlled by planning. ” Another factor contributing to urban growth seems to be the relatively high availabiIity of land at prices which are lower than in Central and Northern Italy. Therefore, it can be anticipated that within the next few years Southern Italy will have the highest ULpc. 6. Conclusions
Economic development, the major cause of land use evolution, appears to act in a diversified manner according to temporal and spatial factors: phase of transportation and communication development, technologies, land availability, settlement patterns, regional policies and planning. The interrelationships between these factors are quite evident with various and sometimes contrasting results. Isolation of the individual cause-effect relationship is not easy, as this paper has attempted to show. A general scheme
of the various
interrelationships
is presented
“Evidence of this is to be found in the widespread occurrence of illegal urban development, well documented by several surveys and by the number of applications requesting ~~~utoriu~ in accordance with the provisions of a recent Act relating to unauthorised buildings.
land use relationships.
in Fig. 4. The different relationships can be seen with reference to the so-called Three Itdies. In the North-West regions, where industriaiisation dates back to the nineteenth century and the matureindustrial phase was reached in the 196Os, the land use trend follows a similar pattern to the English one. On the other hand North-East and Central Italy appear to have experienced a certain coincidence of the preliminary industrialisation and the socioeconomic development phases, while a certain slowdown in urban growth has only been seen over the last decade. Urban growth, however, has reached an LIZ+ of 419 m*, which is much higher than in the North-West (301 m*). The Southern regions’ situation is different for various reasons not always easily understandable: although the mature-industrial phase has not been reached, a remarkable lJLpc (394 m2) is registered and is bound to increase owing to the combined effects of regional policies and widespread spontaneous development. Clearly, the Three ladies demonstrate their wellrecognised diversity as far as land use is concerned. Generally speaking, however, Italy is characterised by the North-East-Central pattern, that is, the Venice-Florence-Rome axis (Fig. 3) typifying Renaissance Italy with all its cities, arts and trades. The ‘late, but not traumatic’ development of the last 30 years (Fua, 1983) has done nothing but confirm the historic settlement patterns. Here, ceteris paribus, a high level of ULpc emerged with severe costs in terms of land absorption, environmental degradation and provision of public services. The agricultural situation is also unstable, because of the fragmentation of holdings, the lack of economic viability and the widespread pressure of urban development. If rural areas of Northern Europe have been notable for their ‘strong agricultures, but weak rural economies’ (Wibberley, 1981), NorthEast-Central Italy seems better defined by its strong rural economies but weak agricultural structures.
456
Maurizio
It is important to emphasise that in North-EastCentral Italy costs, both public and private, would have been lower if urban growth had been better controlled by land use policies and planning. However, it must be acknowledged that a very remarkable economic development was carried out in an extremely short time (1950-1980). This speed found Local Authorities politically and technically quite unprepared: politically, because key issues such as the uncertainty and irreversibility which accompany changes in the use of agricultural land or, even worse, the harmful effects on the landscape and the environment, were not clearly understood; or even if they were understood, there was a systematic serious underevaluation of future trends in preservation value rate (Hodge, 1984); technically because until the 197Os, most small- to medium-sized towns, not to mention villages, had no clear development plan prescribing zoning and building standards. Urban growth was subject only to planning permission delivered by the Borough Councils (Comuni), more than 8000 all over Italy, that could certainly refuse permission but in a context where they had to answer to pressure from local people, quite often landowners. ” Some 20-30 years ago the situation was certainly such as to require development at any cost, in order to avoid emigration and rural abandonment; however, the passage to the new reality of a mature industrial economy and the consequent need to control and direct development through strict and precise plans, was not immediately realised by local Councils, or by people in general. What is worrying is not the 400-500 m2 or ULpc which represents a favourable level of living space, but rather the sprawl and its impact on the environment and on agricultural structures, as well as the public costs of an extremely fragmented and discontinuous urban system. It is not the quantity but the poor quality of urban development which is of concern. On the other hand the various benefits of this situation, most prominently found in the NorthEast-Central regions, cannot be denied. There is continuity of earlier settlement patterns, complete involvement of rural areas in the development process, harmonious integration between different economic sectors - in short. a quality-of-life which does not renounce its provincial, if not rural connotations, but nevertheless produces incomes and services typical of a post-industrial society. To a _.--_--“The large number of landowners, not necessarily farmers in the proper sense of the term, that can ask for planning permission is in itself a problem in land use planning. quite obviously. for instance, the 2CO-300,ooO English farmers are more easily controlled than 2-3 million Italian landowners who are often involved in a variety of trades and hence can easily envisage alternative land uses including industry, trade, residence and tourism.
Met-lo certain extent the situation reminds what has been recently called ‘life space’ based on ‘agropolitan development’ (Friedman, 1988) or, more conventionally, integrated rural development. References W. (1964) Locution and Land Use. Towards a General Theory of Lund Rent. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachussets. Anderson, M. and Best, R. (1984) Land use structure and change in Britain, 1971 to 1981. The Planner 11, 21-24. Bagnasco, A. (1977) Tre Italie. La problematica territoriale dello sviluppo italiano. II Mulino, Bologna. Best, R. (1981) Lund Use ond Living Space. Methuen, London. Best, R., Jones, A. and Rogers, A. (1974) The density size rule. Urban Srudies 11, 201-208. Bicanic, R. (1969) Turning-points in economic development and agricultural policies. In Economic Problems of Agriculture in Industrial Societies, Papi, U. and Nunn. C. (eds). Macmillan, London. Briggs, D. and Wyatt, B. (1988) Rural land-use change in Europe. In Land Use and the European Environment, Whitby, M. and Ollerenshaw, J. (eds). Belhaven Press, London. Christaller, W. (1033) Die zentralen Orte in Suddeutschland (Jena). Central Places in Southern Germany. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs (translation 1966). Clark, C. (1967) Population Growth and Lund Use. Macmillan, London. Cole, W.A. and Deane, P. (1966) The growth of national incomes. In The Cambridge Economic History of Europe, Habakkuk, H. and Postan, M. (eds), Vol. VI. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Consiglio Nazionale Ricerche-Increment0 Produttivita Agricoltura (CNR-IPRA) (1988) Relazione di sintesi. In Interazione e competizione dei sistemi urbuni con l’agricoltura per l’uso della risorsa suolo, Agostini, D. and Prestamburgo, M. (eds). Pitagora Editrice, Bologna. Dunn, E. Jr (1954) The Location of Agricultural Production. University of Florida Press, Gainesville. Ferro, 0. (1988) Istituzioni di Politica Agraria. EdagriCole, Bologna. Friedman, J. (1988) Life Space and Economic Space: Essays in Third World Planning. Transaction Books. New Brunswick, New Jersey. Fua, G. (1980a) Problems of Lagged Development in OECD Europe: a Study of Six Countries. OECD, Paris (document No. 2277) (derestricted). Fua, G. ( 1980b) Problemi dello sviluppo tardivo in Europa. II Mulino, Bologna. Fua. G. (1983) L’industrializzazione nel Nord-Est e nel Centro. In lndustrializzazione senza fratture, FuB, G. and Zacchia, C. (eds). II Mulino, Bologna. Hall, P. (1974) Urban and Regional Planning. Penguin Books, Harmondsworth. Hodge, I. (1984) Uncertainty, irreversibility and the loss of agricultural land. Journal of Agricultural Economics 35, 191-202. Isard, W. (1956) Locution und Space-Economy. Wiley, New York. lstituto Assestamento Forestale Alpicoltura (ISAFA) (1988) Inventarioforestalenazionale 1985. Temi, Trento. Istituto Centrale Statistiche (ISTAT) (various years) Annuario Statistico Italiuno. Istituto Poligrafico dello Stato, Rome. Alonso,
The
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Judge. G., Griffiths. W.. Hill, R. et al. (1985) The Theory u!nd Practice of Econometrics. Wiley, New York. Kln~. G. (1804) Natural and Political Observations und Conclusions Upon the State and Conditions of England. Ed. Chalmers, London. LGsch, A. (1943) The Economics of Locution. Yale University Press, New Haven (translation of 2nd Edn, 1954). Marshall, A. (1890) Principles of Economics. Book X, Chapter XI (Marginal Costs in Relation to Urban Lund Values). Macmillan, London (7th Edn. lY16). Mctnerney. J. (1976) The simple analytics of natural resource economics. Journal of Agricultural Economics 27. 31-52. Mitchell, B. (1988) Conseguenze della rivoluzione industriale: la dimensione statistica. In Le rivoluzioni de1 henessere, Melograni. P. and Ricossa, S. (eds). Ed. Laterza. Bari.
Economic
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National Land Agency (NLA) (1980) The Outline of the Annual Report on the Nutional Land Use 1980. Minato ku. Tokyo. OECD (1979) Agriculture in the Planning and Management of Peri-urban Areas. OECD. Paris. Raup, P. (1982) An agricultural critique of the National Agricultural Lands Study. Lund Economics 58, 260274. Ricardo, D. (1817) On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. London. Rostow, W. (1960) The Stages of Economic Growth. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. von Thiinen, J. ( 1826) Der Isolierte Staat in Beziehung auf Restock, Landwirtschaft und NationalBkonomie. Hamburg. Wibberley. G. (1981) Strong agricultures but weak rural economies. European Review of Agricultural Economics 8. 155-170.