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The Good Doctor's “Not-So-Good” Economic Prognosis
metal finishing
tuckerstake The Good Doctor’s “Not-So-Good” Economic Prognosis
H
unker down. We’re in for a long luster employment numbers are period of stagnation. That was indicative of skittishness among the admonition of Dr. Ken Mayland, businesses. In truth, many compapresident of Pepper Pike, Ohionies have simply learned to do more based Clearview Economics, in his with less. “Employers say the cuts closing keynote presentation delivthey made at the height of the downered at SUR/FIN 2011 in Rosemont, turn were just too painful,” Dr. Ill., back in June. In sharp contrast to Mayland surmised. “Companies are his more sanguine forecasts offered gun-shy about hiring due to the at SUR/FIN 2009 swings from and 2010, respective2008–09.” See “Business Spotlight” ly, the renown business economist in this issue for additional Stagnation in wage perspectives. sounded a more caugrowth. Consumer tionary note regardspending—about 70% ing the state of the of GDP—got off to a recovery in general and, more specifslow start in the second quarter, ically, job creation in the United with the prospects for Q3 appearing States. equally bleak. “It’s the worst conFollowing are a few “low-lights” sumer spending growth seen in 60 from Dr. Mayland’s presentation: years,” Dr. Mayland said. “Stagnant wages are having a direct impact on Subpar employment growth. The consumer spending. At the same U.S. economy generated only 54,000 time, inflation has gobbled up even jobs in May, with—for the first time nominal increases in wage growth.” since the recovery began—manufacturing employment trending downHousing: A drag on the economy. ward (off by 5,000 during the With housing starts down year over month). May’s job report was down year in three out of four regions, dramatically from April, which units “under construction” off 0.9% showed payrolls increasing by in April, and lingering issues with 244,000. June’s numbers were even foreclosures, the lumbering housing worse, as the economy eked out a sector remains a major concern. mere 18,000 new positions. “I just don’t see the spark that’s “We were cruising along, and then going to give the economy the boost things started to slow down,” Dr. we need,” Dr. Mayland flatly told Mayland said. “We have been proattendees. “The cyclical push from ducing private sector jobs for more inventory rebuilding has run its than a year—just not cyclically what course, the momentum of business we’re used to. At this juncture of the has changed, and we’re now entering recovery, job growth should be in the the malaise.” vicinity of 400,000. We’re coming up No sugar on this one, folks. way short.” Lack of overall confidence. The lackwww.metalfinishing.com
July/August 2011 Volume 109 - Number 5 Publisher Greg Valero [email protected] Editor Reginald Tucker [email protected] Publisher Emeritus Eugene B. Nadel Art Director - Production Manager Susan Canalizo-Baruch [email protected] Advertising Sales Managers Midwest/West Coast Arnie Hoffman Ph: (847) 559-0909 E-mail: [email protected] Northeast/East Coast Dan Ramage Ph: (847) 699-6899 E-mail: [email protected] Southeast/Mid-Atlantic Dave Facinelli Ph: (727) 866-9647 E-mail: [email protected] Sales Operations Coordinator Eileen McNulty [email protected] Marketing/Circulation Manager Laure Ballu [email protected] Metal Finishing 360 Park Avenue South New York, NY 10010-1710 (212) 633-3100 FAX: (212) 462-1915 www.metalfinishing.com Metal Finishing (ISSN 0026-0576) is published 10 times per year in January/February, March, April/May, June, July/August, September, October, November, November/December, and December by Elsevier Inc., 360 Park Avenue South, New York, NY 10010. POSTMASTER: Send all address changes to Metal Finishing P.O. Box 141, Congress, NY 10920-0141. Metal Finishing is free to qualified metal finishers in North America. For others related to the field the subscription rate per year, including a copy of the “Metal Finishing Guidebook and Directory Issue” and the “Organic Finishing Guidebook and Directory Issue” is: 1-year subs for 2011 USA $123.00 Canada/Mexico $173.00 Europe & Japan $252.00 Rest of World $284.00 Metal Finishing Customer Service, P.O. Box 141, Congers, N.Y. 10920-0141. Toll free (U.S. only): (800) 765-7514. Outside the U.S. call (845) 267-3490, fax (845) 267-3478. E-mail: [email protected]. Periodicals postage paid at New York, N.Y. and at additional mailing offices. Change of Address: Postmaster—send address changes to Metal Finishing, P.O. Box 141, Congers, N.Y. 10920-0141. Toll-free (for U.S. customers) (800) 765-7514. Outside of the U.S. call (845) 267-3490, fax: (845) 267-3478. E-mail: [email protected], 45 days advance notice required. Please include both new and old address. Copyright by Elsevier, Inc. Permission for reprinting selected portions will usually be granted on written application to the publisher.
July/August 2011 I metalfinishing I 3
tuckerstake The Good Doctor’s “Not-So-Good” Economic Prognosis
H
unker down. We’re in for a long luster employment numbers are period of stagnation. That was indicative of skittishness among the admonition of Dr. Ken Mayland, businesses. In truth, many compapresident of Pepper Pike, Ohionies have simply learned to do more based Clearview Economics, in his with less. “Employers say the cuts closing keynote presentation delivthey made at the height of the downered at SUR/FIN 2011 in Rosemont, turn were just too painful,” Dr. Ill., back in June. In sharp contrast to Mayland surmised. “Companies are his more sanguine forecasts offered gun-shy about hiring due to the at SUR/FIN 2009 swings from and 2010, respective2008–09.” See “Business Spotlight” ly, the renown business economist in this issue for additional Stagnation in wage perspectives. sounded a more caugrowth. Consumer tionary note regardspending—about 70% ing the state of the of GDP—got off to a recovery in general and, more specifslow start in the second quarter, ically, job creation in the United with the prospects for Q3 appearing States. equally bleak. “It’s the worst conFollowing are a few “low-lights” sumer spending growth seen in 60 from Dr. Mayland’s presentation: years,” Dr. Mayland said. “Stagnant wages are having a direct impact on Subpar employment growth. The consumer spending. At the same U.S. economy generated only 54,000 time, inflation has gobbled up even jobs in May, with—for the first time nominal increases in wage growth.” since the recovery began—manufacturing employment trending downHousing: A drag on the economy. ward (off by 5,000 during the With housing starts down year over month). May’s job report was down year in three out of four regions, dramatically from April, which units “under construction” off 0.9% showed payrolls increasing by in April, and lingering issues with 244,000. June’s numbers were even foreclosures, the lumbering housing worse, as the economy eked out a sector remains a major concern. mere 18,000 new positions. “I just don’t see the spark that’s “We were cruising along, and then going to give the economy the boost things started to slow down,” Dr. we need,” Dr. Mayland flatly told Mayland said. “We have been proattendees. “The cyclical push from ducing private sector jobs for more inventory rebuilding has run its than a year—just not cyclically what course, the momentum of business we’re used to. At this juncture of the has changed, and we’re now entering recovery, job growth should be in the the malaise.” vicinity of 400,000. We’re coming up No sugar on this one, folks. way short.” Lack of overall confidence. The lackwww.metalfinishing.com
July/August 2011 Volume 109 - Number 5 Publisher Greg Valero [email protected] Editor Reginald Tucker [email protected] Publisher Emeritus Eugene B. Nadel Art Director - Production Manager Susan Canalizo-Baruch [email protected] Advertising Sales Managers Midwest/West Coast Arnie Hoffman Ph: (847) 559-0909 E-mail: [email protected] Northeast/East Coast Dan Ramage Ph: (847) 699-6899 E-mail: [email protected] Southeast/Mid-Atlantic Dave Facinelli Ph: (727) 866-9647 E-mail: [email protected] Sales Operations Coordinator Eileen McNulty [email protected] Marketing/Circulation Manager Laure Ballu [email protected] Metal Finishing 360 Park Avenue South New York, NY 10010-1710 (212) 633-3100 FAX: (212) 462-1915 www.metalfinishing.com Metal Finishing (ISSN 0026-0576) is published 10 times per year in January/February, March, April/May, June, July/August, September, October, November, November/December, and December by Elsevier Inc., 360 Park Avenue South, New York, NY 10010. POSTMASTER: Send all address changes to Metal Finishing P.O. Box 141, Congress, NY 10920-0141. Metal Finishing is free to qualified metal finishers in North America. For others related to the field the subscription rate per year, including a copy of the “Metal Finishing Guidebook and Directory Issue” and the “Organic Finishing Guidebook and Directory Issue” is: 1-year subs for 2011 USA $123.00 Canada/Mexico $173.00 Europe & Japan $252.00 Rest of World $284.00 Metal Finishing Customer Service, P.O. Box 141, Congers, N.Y. 10920-0141. Toll free (U.S. only): (800) 765-7514. Outside the U.S. call (845) 267-3490, fax (845) 267-3478. E-mail: [email protected]. Periodicals postage paid at New York, N.Y. and at additional mailing offices. Change of Address: Postmaster—send address changes to Metal Finishing, P.O. Box 141, Congers, N.Y. 10920-0141. Toll-free (for U.S. customers) (800) 765-7514. Outside of the U.S. call (845) 267-3490, fax: (845) 267-3478. E-mail: [email protected], 45 days advance notice required. Please include both new and old address. Copyright by Elsevier, Inc. Permission for reprinting selected portions will usually be granted on written application to the publisher.
July/August 2011 I metalfinishing I 3