The influence of man on climate

Geoforum.

Vol. 7, pp.99-106.1976.

Press. Printed in Great Britain.

Pergamon

The Influence

of Man on Climate

M.I.

Leningrad

BUDYKO,

Summary: influence

The economic

and F.F.

activity

ranges from the growth

atmosphere.

activity

by a considerable

reduction

rise in the near future.

in the area of the Arctic

of precipitation

concentrations

it may be expected

at the surface of the earth may rise in 0.5’

and by the diminution

and a growth

According

caused by

to some calculations

by the end of the present century. ice, by changes in the atmospheric

fluctuation influenced

of energy

that a fall in temperature

will be reflected

states, giving the problem has already

This

in the

an

It may be circulation

in a number of regions.

Introduction Man’s activity

on global climate.

factors results in a fall in some tenths of degree in

of the carbon dioxide

will give place to a temperature

influence

to an increase in aerosol chemicals

at the surface of the earth, while the second provides for a

of various man-made

Because of a rapid growth

a considerable

concentration

with an extra heating of the atmosphere,

average temperature followed

of man has lately been exerting of carbon dioxide

The overall influence

average temperature. economic

Tbilisi*

The first results in a rise in air temperature

fail in temperature. consumption

DAVITAJA,

the natural

conditions

national

in the territory

of climatic

of many

changes an inter-

character.

of our planet for a long time. The second feature Climate

is the only comppnent

of the natural

that until recently

has been little changed

aside the problem

of man’s impact

the middle affected

of this century,

by man.

as a whole

up to

was little

consists in considerable of climate natural

recent decades this situation

and a real possibility unpremeditated

has appeared

has begun to change, of considerable

changes of the climate,

climate

determining

influence

areas.

differences

the anthropogenic

may, in some cases, involve the whole earth,

inportance or

As opposed

of the climate

natural

Thus, fluctuations

changes of the

are

on the flora and fauna of the

environment.

all exogenic

changes of

environment

changes in the river regimes in many cases

small fluctuations

between

of natural

these ties are not always strong. Thus,

have no influence

river regimes, etc. The latter have a regional

whereas

of different

all the components

for example,

perhaps of

changes and the anthropogenic

flora, fauna,

conditions

surrounding

It is necessary to stress the principal

character,

and often

change from the environment,

on a range of processes which govern the

interconnected,

increasing tempo.

the climatic

climatic

of natural

factors. Though

During

distinguishing

changes of other components

Leaving

on local climate,

climate

by anthropogenic

environment

to this, even

may change considerably

processes.

of the global climate

for natural

environment

may be of great

as well as for man’s

activities.

at least a hemisphere. This is explained movements

by the high intensity

in the atmosphere,

changes may be distributed

as a result of which

so in the stratosphere,

contaminants

are carried

This property

of the economic

global climate

has become

processes makes it impossible

Any considerable

Prof. Dr., M.I. BUDYKO, Karbysheva Vakhushti

7, Leningrad; Institute

Main Geophysical

affecting

Calculation

of Anthropogenic

The available

data show, that at present~the

higher concentrations

climate

of aerosol materials

The burning

Observatory,

Prof. Dr. F.F. DAVITAJA,

of Geography,

of man on the

apparent

mainly

in

This

imoortance l

activities

plainly

the last 20 or 30 years.

in weeks.

change as a local problem,

only separate countries.

The influence

where different

for great distances

of atmospheric

climate

local

over very great distances.

is particularly

to consider

of horizontal

Zoya Rukhadze

of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

for climate

the atmosphere

Tbilisi 15, USSR.

99

Change man-made

and the growth are of main

chancres.

of ever-growing

other fuels is connected str. 1,

Climatic

quantities

of oil, coal and

with the annual discharge

of milliards

into

of tons of carbon dioxide.

100

GeoforumlVolume

Part of the man-made

carbon dioxide

oceans and is retained

by living organisms,

result of which concentration has increased

of CO,

in the atmosphere

of the reasons for the growth the increase in ploughed 1,200

million particularly

of the troposphere.

has

annually,

forming

than 30 microns. from

natural

industrial

Tropospheric

aerosols of all dimensions

part

hemisphere.

the amount

estimates,

Of this, 800-2200

sources, and 200-400 1971).

of material

is still more difficult

received

separate sources of pollution.

Odessa cat cm+ 2,00

about

1000-2600

combinations,

as a result of sulphurous one-atom

with

the stratosphere

a radius less

million million

oxygen.

which are mainly

are most likely gas interacting

with ozone and

tons come Systematic

tons from to define

by the atmosphere, contributions

observations

atmosphere

previously.

it is difficult

to judge the secular history

atmospheric

pollution

it

of

of aerosol content

were not conducted

The growth

It is supposed that

in the That

measurement.

of the aerosol mass may be ascertained

2,oo 1,90 !

1.70

-

1.60

-

SO

2.00

S 03

1.90

%X

170 n

So So3

i

I,60

1,80

-%

Secular variation

-

I,50

%

1.70

Sm W

1.50

Sn

Alma-Ata

Tashkent

so

2,00

s0 503

(So-solar

of short-

flow.

constant;

direct radiation

so3

1.90 1.80

%l

1.70 . 1.60

v

150140

-

1,20 ‘.30 I.10 -

--x-

VSn

depletion

at

S

of radtatlonozi-

ozon; Sm -by S,,-by

SU3-

measured

the Earth’s surface;

1.60

1,60

by

Fig. 1.

Tbilisi

wave radiation

- -So3

is why

of the

by straight-forward

*

-

in

for the term of several years.

n-’

1.90

1.40 -

composed

to have formed

Particles of this aerosol remain

- ------SO

1.50 - -s

are periodically

precipitation.

in the stratosphere

by the atmosphere

Karadag

1,60

under

have become

If it is difficult

to estimate

layer

fall

and with the downcurrents.

washed out by atmospheric Aerosols

is received

in the lower

to the earth’s surface whilst the smaller accumulate

over a considerable

aerosol particles

(M~HTA,

mainly

Most of the larger particles

of gravity

in the northern

to the available

tons of material

tons per year.

the influence

of sulphur According

million

wastes, in addition and gaseous emissions,

As a result of this, water

in arid regions.

million

activity

Solid aerosols are concentrated

dust is

land, the area of which

hectares.

Dust storms as a result of soil deflation normal

grows. One

of the atmospheric

and wind erosion has developed of the earth,

make from 400-1600

in the

of agricultural

of volcanic

by 0.2% per year.Simultaneously

the mass of aerosol particles

reached

the burning

to the products

as a

211976

of soil and rock, smoke from forest fires

and from

but no less

than one half of it remains in the atmosphere, atmosphere

particles

dissolves in the

7iNumber

air moleculas;

water vapour)

Geoforum/Volume

indirect

101

-//Number 2/1976

data. Thus measurement

accumulated

the end of the 18th century have shown a rapid growth

( DAVITAJA variation temporaf

, 1965,

1971,

variations

etc.).

dustiness.

mainly

radiation

measured

the so-called

variation

atmospheric

ozone

vapour

The growth

and Su3 (radiation aerosol influence

(S,)

(.S,,),

Figure

received at the upper

air molecules of distance

(S,)

between. the lines S,

1970).

and qualitative

change of aerosolic

particle

troposphere

on the basis of meteorological

The above That

account

comparative

is due to the

estimation

of the atmosphere.

was made at a quantitative

by the and water

at the stations)

(ASLANIKASHVILI,

data give only an indirect

which

1 shows the secular

and then depfeted

measured

the aerosol component

by consideration

of

is why an

of the

content

data and

The general as a residual

of solar radiation

flow,

represented

1970).

period

in Fig. 2 confirmed

the

of the aerosol mass, based on in glaciers.

The different

in separate

degree of air pollution by local conditions

amount

of transport,

or physico-geographic The same direction pollution

from

Eastern Siberia, altitudes

(Tbilisi,

peculiarities

and Yakutia, Ku&k),

intensive circulation eddy movements

regions

(size of the

industrial

capacity,

etc.)

of a greater territory.

and about equal rate of growth

the western

of

The results of

the analysis of the dust accumulated

can be determined

and was

values with respect to the

of dustiness at the initial

areas of the USSR

of air

and from

and also at different must be explained

by the

of the air masses and the developed

in the lower layers of the troposphere.

The data on the growth

of the aerosol mass at a series of

meteorological

in the USSR,

stations

is coordinated

the fact that during several decades before atmospheric

turbidity

in Jerusalem growth

25% in Mexico

(JOSEPH and MANES,

of atmospheric

with

1960-1970

has increased on average by 20% in

Davos, 10% in Washington,

of the

was calculated

(TAVARTKILADZE, as to the growth

settlement,

of direct solar radiation, boundary

attempt

of

solar

of one or several factors,

radiation.

atmospheric

(S,).

molecules

The direct

may be predetermined

variation

reduce short-wave

average background

conclusions

‘solar constants’.

of the temporal

in comparative

the calculations

Passing

so far available.

causing depletion

observations

of

near the earth’s surface is less than

Its secular variation

observations

of aerosol particles

represented

is partially

by the ozone,

air, water vapour and aerosol particles.

amount quantity,

The analysis of the secular

may give indications solar radiation

and scattered,

actinometric

from

and up to the present time,

in atmospheric

the atmosphere,

absorbed

of dust

during the last decade

of solar radiation

through

of the amount

in the glacier of the Caucasus (Kuzbek)

turbidity

1971).

City and 10% The coordinated

in the different

regions

Fig. 2.

Tbilisi

Secular variation of relative quantities of atmospheric aerosol mass

Irkutsk

Yakutsk 300 L

102

GeoforumiVolume

indicates

the global character

While the growth

of carbon

a rise of temperature

of air pollution. dioxide

concentration

near the earth’s surface,

of the aerosol mass on the thermal complicated.

In contrast

as a rule promotes

the reduction

the earth’s surface, short-wave

behaviour

to the atmospheric

is much more aerosol which

of the temperature

the tropospheric

radiation

causes

the influence

absorption

aerosol,

may result

in heating of the’air. Nevertheless, conditions

the calculations

the tropospheric

temperature

average estimations

carbon dioxide

earth’s surface by 0.2 to 0.3”,

by about 0.5’.

it is

in the northern

decreased

since the end of the 194Os,

the problem

hemisphere

by observations.

of anthropogenic

has

their occurrence.

Henceforth,

of this problem

climatic

is determined

changes and the time

climate

the problem

physical

processes in the atmosphere due consideration

by great

one of the

acitivity

of this problem

by the fact that the economy considerably

on distinct

considerable

change of climate

is determined,

of all countries

climatic

conditions,

in particular, depends

dioxide

relating

peculiarities

causes considerable of the economic

is not to forecast

but to calculate

development,

of the possible climatic

measures for the control

for adjusting

the

The second peculiarity

of forecasting

schematic

models of the climatic

taken

it is necessary to have informa-

changes can be compared,

apparently,

period of the now planned and systems, the work

For the most durable

to the

industrial

the

then such changes must be

in planning

criterion

for which climate carrying

for evaluating

it is desirable

to have information

of the period

adjust the economy

the climate

for these changes. Taking

tion the fact that implementation

is

quantitative

forecasts

of

for decades. With the use of the theory

it is most likely

will be of the right sign and order.

The practical

value of such estimations

is determined

by

variants of the economic

development

(i.e. most important

those that may cause

for the economy)

changes, greater than the possible calculation

errors.

on the possible

changes, is the time necessary for preparing out measures to control

climates

For several reasons

the fact that they make it possible to single out from the considerable

these structures.

the duration

to make accurate

that the forecasts

climatic Another

future

of which

structures

is no less than 100 years. If in future

into consideration

all the

changes. Thus, the

changes is the basis of

development

changes considerably,

the long-term having taken

with their possible accuracy.

it is difficult

climate

develop”

of climate.

economic

such a period

of the

even in the most favourable

great investments

structures

be

of such climate

climatic

of time for which

and agricultural

will probably

is why the task of

the real climate

it is possible to optimize

measures against unfavourable

If this change,

the results of such

connected

depends on the climate.

activity

to several possible variants of economic into consideration

is not

changes.

unfavourable

the parameters

to the new conditions.

exploitation

activity

on the climatic

economy

probable

to

of such forecasts.

Man’s economic

of its influence

of economic

etc.) and

activity.

will demand

tion on climate

of the

changes which correspond

direction

The period

of fuel consumption

concentration

of energy production,

of those climatic

ment. Taking

two major

of some aspects

changed before these changes occur. That

forecast

and a

changes contains

(the growth

the change of economic

future,

to

but

must be given to temporal

climatic

the expansion

calculation,

meteorology.

and hydrosphere,

of the development

which increases carbon

a climatologist

of

of

activity.

the forecast

activity

changes as a result from the problem

In the latter, the analysis is confined

The task of forecasting

planning The importance

the climate

considerably

forecasting.

independent

of forecasting

changes should be considered

tasks of modern

of about

weather

economic

If these changes will be sufficiently

most important

differs

First, they are relative.

changes of the climate

and will occur in the near future, the coming

of forecasting

of man’s activity

then the character

importance

the scale of probable

The problem

This causes two important

deserves greater attention. The practical

on the possible 100 years.

changes for the period

calculation

As a result of these two effects

values obtained

Thus, it is desirable to have information

atmosphere,

in the northern

conforming

and

climate

of economic

near the

the average temperature by 0.2 to 0.3’

scientific

decades.

elements:

and anthropogenic

aerosol has decreased this temperature hemisphere

1974).

of the atmospheric

has increased the air temperature

of many complicated

this period will be no less than several

problems,

changes in economic

aerosol tends to reduce the

of the lower layer of the air (BUOYKO,

On the basis of the available

require the solution technical

in the former

show that under average

possible that at present the growth

211976

near

because of the

by its particles,

7lNumber

and

change, and to

Climatic Changes in the Next Hundred Years

into considera-

of such measures will

It is necessary first of all to discuss the consequences

of

GeoforumiVolume

7iNumber

Z/1976

further growth of carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere, and of the expansion of energy production.

103

AT’ 3.0

There is no doubt that the growth of the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere will continue at least till the end of this century, and also during part of the next century. In the 21st century the climate may be influenced greatly by the increase in energy consumption. Almost all of this energy turns into heat, additional to the solar energy zo absorbed by earth’s atmosphere. At present the amount of this additional heat is comparatively small, but under the continuing growth of energy production at about 6% per year, in the next century it can become comparable with the energy obtained by earth from 1.0 the sun. If the two given factors promote the increase of the average surface air temperature, the further growth of the anthropogenic aerosol amount may cause its decrease. 0

It is difficult to imagine the possibility of cessation of the

~~

1900

growing fuel consumption and energy production, as it is incompatible with the technical progress. At the same time in many countries an active struggle is waged against air pollution, in connection with which it is quite possible that the increase of the anthropogenic aerosol amount will be stopped and changed by the gradual decrease of its ~ncentration. Under such conditions there appears a possibility of changing the climate with a rise of the temperature determined by the growth of carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere and the growth of energy production.

Fig. 3. *

Secular variation (1 k-secular

of surface air temperature

variation

(2)-temperature

anomaly

of the average temperature

changes, caused by the growth of energy

production (3)-temperature dioxide

changes, caused by the growth

concentration

in the atmospheric

of carbon

air

Thus, the increase of energy consumption by man will influence greatly the future climate.

Figure 3 shows the possible influence of man’s activity on

The second factor which may change the climate

the future climate. Curve 1 is the secular aberrance variation of the average air temperature for the northern

considerably is the growth of carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere.

hemisphere, based on observation data. Curve 2 represents the results of the calculation of the average global

Using the numerical model of the carbon dioxide balance,

temperature changes due to the growth of energy production by 6% per year, by means of a semi-empiric model of the thermal condition of atmosphere based on the hypothesis that the temperature change occurs as a result of the heat supply, all other factors influencing the climate being constant, albedo of the earth’s atmosphere system included.

MANTA (197 1) and other authors have concluded that by the year 2000 carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere

will have grown by about 1520%. MANABE has found that because of this the average planet surface air temperature will have grown by about 0.5” by

the year 2000 as compared to 1970, and the average temperature in the high latitudes by about lo ~~ANABE, 1970). The change of the global temperature, corresponding to the results of such calculations, is represented in Fig. 3 by the part of curve 3 shown in continuous line.

From Fig. 3 it may be seen that in the first half of the 21st century the rise of temperature caused by the increase of energy production will become greater than the temperatur ‘e As is seen from the figure, by 2000 the temperature change changes that have taken place during the first half of the as a result of the increase of carbon dioxide content of the 20th century as a result of natural conditions. In future atmosphere, may have exceeded the anomalies of the natural the temperature increase will grow quickly, which will variations of the global temperature observed during the cause great changes of global climate.

GeoforumiVolume

104

first half of the 20th concentrations 21st century

century.

of carbon

As is seen from

It is possible that further

dioxide

in the atmosphere

will cause still greater climate

in the

changes.

in the Arctic

ice melting,

In the study of the climate

changes caused by the increase

of the global temperature

the problem

state in the high latitudes

is of great importance.

Using

theory

the data represented of the thermal

evaluating

of the atmosphere

the future

of the Arctic

location

sea ice. The results of such calculation

ice boundary

in the northern

It can be seen from average boundary

this diagram of polar

boundary

that by the year 2000 northwards

the by

and especially

than that which

took

conditions

in high latitudes.

of Fig. 5 with the paleoclimatic conditions

of the northern in the Arctic

as a return

to the climatic

quaternary

time.

data

in the temperate hemisphere

under the

will be very similar to

at the end of the Tertiary

time,

conditions conditions

Much attention

great speed with which the return

millions

of the Pre-

should be paid to the to the previous

climatic

IO5 times greater

fall of temperature

in the recent geological

of

may be represented

may take place. It is about

It is evident

that

periods.

and thirties

this century.

that the change of the climate

polar ice melting

will be more noticeable

place in the twenties

of

conditions

rise of the air temperature.

under the

will not be limited

to a

One of the possible after-

effects of the sea-ice melting

may be gradual destruction

,-

1950

,

I

70

80

I

60

2000

2052

I

FP

Fig. 5. Fig. 4. l

*

Changes in the boundaries northern

hemisphere

of the

in the cold

of the year.

This increase of the temperature

theory

of the polar ice will cause greatest

iceless conditions

prevailed

calculated

It can be seen from the figure that the

than the speed of the natural

change of the air temperature

of the polar sea ice in the

Changes in the average latitude

air temperature

polar ice melting conditions (1 I-warm

of

i.e. by the

are shown,

and high latitudes

conditions

the polar

and high latitudes

of the semi-empiric

years ago. The new thermal

model show that with a change of the ice the additional

melting

conditions

is represented

with the help of the above-

will take place in high latitudes period

are

of the sea

1972).

ice will retreat

about 2”. The calculations mentioned

hemisphere

axis (E3UDYK0,

along the vertical

of polar ice melting,

conditions.

with

by the year 2050,

to the formulae

show that the thermal

of the average boundary

shown in Fig. 4 in which the average latitude

termination

A comparison

the change of the polar ice area, it is possible

to calculate

changes in the temperate

complete

the sea ice

in Fig. 5.

hemisphere

changes in the thermal

for

change, connected

are represented

Temperature

thermal

in Fig. 3 and the semi-empiric

condition

Fig. 4, with the above hypothesis

the northern according

of the ice layer

211976

will melt in about 80 years.

Some indices of climatic

Disappearance of Polar ice

7/Number

half year

(2)-cold

half year

under the

-l/Number

GeoforumiVolume

of the Greenland

211976

and Antarctic

105

glaciers which

climatic

will

Such sharp change in the climate difficulties

for many countries,

to change considerably

dependent

This raises the question

with the aim of preventing natural

and created

systems and other

control

of the climate

unfavourable

changes, both

influence

been mainly

limited

for example

irrigation

swamps, shelter influence

ance of the so-called

has

to the changes of the local climate, of arid territories,

drainage

of the

belts; but there measures had little

of technology

influence

under the growth

of weather

a considerable

control

part of the earth.

deliberate

meteorological

of the carbon dioxide

vibration,

created

by transport

With the aim of preventing

has been proposed

of solar radiation

content

(BUDYKO,

received

of the a

1974).

The

can lessen the

industrial

will only

the atmospheric To attempt obviously

such action will have on

processes in all the regions of the world.

a direct

this condition

of

be possible after the precise

of the influence

change of the global climate

is fulfilled

would

before

be very dangerous.

necessary to pay attention

aspect of the problem

of the direct

air pollution,

tall

but this is no

Tall chimneys

result in pollution

hundreds

of kilometers

away from the pomt of emission.

in question

bv emissions from

For cleaning

of areas

at the same time

neighbouring

of the atmosphere

is

areas.

It is

is the urban areas it is

necessary to decrease, and ultimately

stage to’construct

cleaning

to stop, the

material

etc. For this purpose

by industry,

it is necessary as a first

installations.

In future

it

will be necessary to build chimney-less

plants and

factories,

schemes, under

working

closed technological

which all the industrial

wastes are used. It is possible to

many useful products

from gas and smoke

now

emitted. Vegetation

It is necessary to stress that the use of this method me-calculation

field.

solution.

obtain

by the troposphere,

decreasing surface air temperature.

changing climate

an

noise and

means, and a considerable

are being built in many countries,

transport,

change of the aerosol layer of the lower

increase of the aerosol concentration amount

conditions

and the increase of energy production,

stratosphere

area, is apparent.

state of soil and air

upon man. These include

emission of smoke and other

atmosphere

the

and energetics

makes it possible to propose methods

To preserve the existing

which

in many towns and cities, exerting

unhealthy

polluted

of great areas, occupying

to the surrounding

Many other changes in the physical

The given territory

on global climate.

The rapid development

‘heat island’ within

degrees as compared

chimneys

with

i.e. the appear-

of the lower air layer increases by several

increase of the electromagnetic

of man upon climate

air pollution

and also heat pollution,

are also observed

by man’s activity.

Control of Climate Change The premeditated

aerosol particles

temperature

on climate.

of direct

in urban areas, has gained

In towns and cities a considerable

will create great and it will be necessary

the agricultural

branches of economy

change particularly

much importance.

cause a rise in the level of the oceans.

influences

the atmosphere. methane,

ethene,

greatly

the pollution

propane,

totuol and cyclohexane

butane,

from

pentanes,

of

benzol

the atmosphere.

appears that the range of assimilation by different

conditions

It has been shown that plants consume It

of these substances

plants is very wide, from species to species

as much as fifty

times as much.

to the international influence

upon climate.

Therefore,

in towns and cities planting

of trees and shrubs

in the streets and squares, and setting up of parks and The above-mentioned alter the weather countries, different

method

conditions

the character in different

of changing climate in the territories

of these alterations

being

gardens of specially importance. USSR,

regions. convention

of uncoordinated

the area of green plantations

Banning of irrational

to change climate.

together

introduction

results of man’s influence necessity of preventing

in the

of soil cultivation

irrigation

of deserts

of shelter belts, the methods

to combat

after-effects

the of local

Prevention effective

contaminants.

of the atmosphere within

the national

wind

on the decrease of

dangerous

upon the global climate,

unfavourable

forest felling,

will exert a great influence

the atmospheric of preventing

adopted

should be no less

These measures are still of local

with the establishment

deflation,

with the problem

is of considerable

to the standard

importance.

Urban Climate Together

chosen plants,

According

than 26 m2 per capita.

Thus, the necessity for an international arises, banning the implementation attempts

will

of many

pollution programmes,

cannot

be

The air,

106

Geoforum/Volume

polluted

in one country,

(On the possible influence

may damage another.

of atmospheric

recession of glaciers and climatic

That is why preserving other components international

of the atmosphere,

of nature,

agreements

demands

as well as of

multilateral

and strict control

F.F. (1971):

izmenenie

dust on the

amelioration).

Zagryazneniye

lzvestiya

zemnoi atmosfery

ee gazovogo sostava (Pollution

atmosphere

implementation.

2/1976

AN SSSR, ser. geogr., No.2. DAVITAJA,

of their

7/Number

i

of the

and change in the gas balance).

lzvestiya

AN

SSSR, ser. geogr. No.4. JOSEPH,

J.H. and A. MANES

variations

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