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The wind of change bypasses shipowners
Confererues
markets for their films. Only when these markets have been fully exploited will the films be screened on the broadcasttelevision networks. All over the world, the information economy is hurrying hell-for-leather towards an international market economy in which the power of nation states over the flows of information within their own states is becoming ever more difficult to maintain. While there is no doubt that some see the benefits to the individual consumer which will flow from this shift, far more of the speakers at the IIC conference saw it as a threat to the traditional patterns of business, communications,
533
and, less immediately, political stability. Ultimately, the real economic relations and flows of information of the world will either be determined by the multinational corporations-accountable to no one except, notionally, their shareholders-or they will have to be regulated in some way. It is clear that no one has the least idea how this might be possible. That, for me, was the real message of the IIC conference, but it was obscured by the noise of ‘communicator’ babble. Vincent Porter Polytechnic of Central London, UK
1
The wind of change bypasses srmowners ’
I
“Comsail ‘80”, an international symposium on wind propulsion of commercial ships, London, 4-6 November 1980 When a professional consortium as august as the Royal Institution of Naval Architects, the Institute of Marine Engineers, the Royal Institute of Navigation, and the Nautical Institute organises a three-day symposium on the subject of wind propulsion of ships it must obviously be taken seriously. The event was attended by 160 delegates from some 20 countries and 18 papers covering a wide range of subjects were presented. At one end of the spectrum, participants were offered glimpses of ships propelled by sophisticated aerofoil or wind-turbine propulsors: at the other, proposals were discussed for a relatively simple upgrading of the small working craft of such underdeveloped fishing and internal waterborne transport systems as those of Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The opening paper, by retired RAF Air Commodore C. T. Nance, surveyed the many orthodox and unorthodox
FUTURES
December
1980
ways in which wind might be employed. While these obviously covered the classic alternatives of fore and aft or square rig, a number of modern upgraded variants were described. On the entirely unorthodox front, the use of kites was later elaborated on by Professor G. W. Schaefer of Cranfield Institute of Technology. He made it clear that the kite was, in fact, capable of producing a useful force component to windward-and when this was augumented by the twist in the natural wind as height increased a theoretically viable system resulted. Subsequent contributions to the discussion indicated that the size of fabric structure necessary was technically possible and that in recent trials with small craft, kite propulsion had been shown to vindicate its theoretical promise. Less demanding in credibility was the disclosure by Mr Satchwell, of the University of Southampton, that patents had only the day before been filed covering the use of blown circulation control devices for ship propulsion. These were an application of work in the field of helicopter rotor aerodynamics originating from the National
534
Conferences
Gas Turbine Establishment and produced lift coefficients about ten times greater than a sail. A correspondingly smaller-area propulsion device might therefore be produced which could typically take the form of two towers of circular section one-third of the ship’s length in height and the same proportion of the ship’s beam in diameter. A power investment for the boundary layer controlling blowers of 500 bhp was said to be sufficient to propel a 20 000 ton vessel. Perhaps the most bizarre proposal was presented by Mr R. Rainey who suggested that a wind turbine (or windmill) could drive an orthodox propeller, which in turn was capable of propelling a ship directly to windward in calm water. In other modes of operation, with the wind from abeam the device could operate like an autogyro and produce propulsion force analogous to those of sails. Although the practicality of the concept had been vindicated on a number of small craft, one contributer to the discussion which followed drew fearsome mental pictures of the consequence of foulweather failure with such a device. The economics of profit and loss are of course the only yardstick by which the shipowner is likely to come to terms with a return to wind propulsion -and no less than four papers touched, in various degrees of detail, on this subject. Somewhat surprisingly, one protagonist was Mr E. P. Crowdy, managing director of Doxford Engines Ltd, who demonstrated convincingly that, in proper combination with auxiliary power, the current trends in oil prices made wind propulsion look increasingly attractive. However, the economics not-yet-operational of technology are notoriously difficult to assess, and opinions remained divided. amongst participants. The problems were highlighted by a theoretical example in which the available traffic coupled to the number of ships carrying it was just profitable
on a particular route. But the loss of cargo to one large sailing vessel, introduced in an experimental capacity, could then upset the economic viability of the whole fleet. Inevitably, the subject of weather is central to the operation of windpropelled ships and two papers were presented in this field. The first, by Mr J. E. Atkins and Mr D. J. Painting of the Meteorological Office, described the general global pattern of highpressure and low-pressure systems and the resultant winds. Somewhat surprisingly, it was revealed that details of the pattern were even now still being filled in--and that even in the so called ‘roaring forties’ (south of the 40” latitude line) the variability in wind direction was a good deal greater than commonly supposed. Thus the oftvoiced opinion that windward sailing ability on the ‘trade wind’ routes was of little importance could indicate a gross tactical error. Weather routing, which has now reached the stage of big business for powered ships, involves somewhat requirements for winddifferent propelled vessels, as was indicated by Dr. J. H. Mays of Windship Development Corporation USA. Both his paper (which described computer modelling of alternative routes) and others drew attention to the wide variability of wind strength. For most of the time this was a good deal lower than was necessary to produce the oft-quoted and economically desirable high speeds obtained by the best sailing vessels in their heyday. The traditional large square-rigged ship, albeit in a somewhat up-dated form, still has its supporters. Foremost among these is undoubtedly Captain of Windrose Ships M. Willoughby, Ltd, whose paper on the design problems of such vessels was coauthored by Dr. E. Corbett, a distinguished naval architect. They argued, very plausibly, that such a ship was the only one which provide a starting point from which we
FUTURES
December 1980
Conferences
could advance with absolute certainty about handling ability and performance. However, the fact that their proposed ship is considerably larger than any of its predecessors could cloud the issue somewhat. Nevertheless, it seems likely that British Shipbuilders are to build the vessel, which at a displacement approaching 20 000 tons promises to be most impressive. In a different field althogether to that of the mundane carriage of goods lies the possibility of the sailing cruise liner. While this topic was not the subject of either a paper or discussion on the there was sufficient backplatform, ground murmuring to make it fairly evident that things may well be moving in this direction with more than one operator. Any illusion that sail had in the meantime disappeared from the face of the earth was dispelled by two further speakers, Captain Morin Scott and Mr E. Gifford. The first of these, who is actively engaged on a commercial contract to add auxiliary sails to an existing coaster, showed photographic slides taken only two weeks previously of small sailing cargo carriers in Portugal. Mr Gifford presented staggering figures for the numbers of working
Last call for European
FUTURES
December 1980
craft in Pakistan and elsewhere. A relatively brief period of ‘modernisation’ through the supply of small diesel engines and outboard motors by FAO had been followed by economic reality in which increases in the cost of oil have made a return to sail inevitiable. In the same vein, Mr M. J. Jacquemin, of SociCtt Brettonne d’Etude et de Rtalisation Navale, gave details of a new type of sail-propelled fishing vessel, 19 metres in length-the first is due to be launched in April 198 1. Somewhat sadly, considering the obvious talent and enthusiasm of those present, the shipowning fraternity were largely absent, with a few notable exceptions. One cannot help wondering what contingency plans exist for survival in the event that, for example, the Iraq-Iran conflict widens to include other oil-supplying nations in the area. At such a time it is not too difficult to envisage a situation where the owner who can remain in business for six months or a year when oil is temporily in short supply may well be among the few of his competitors who are still in business when more normal times return. J. F. Flewitt Wolfson Unit for Marine Technology and
Industrial Aerodynamics, Southampton, UK
telematics
“Europe and the new information technology: a Community strategy for the 198Os”, a conference sponsored by the European Commission in association with the UK National Computing Centre, London, UK, 24 October 1980 If talking about microelectronics enough to make things happen
535
were there
would be hope for Europe. This conference had the right people saying the right things-but at the right time? The EEC must adopt a common strategy (within the next few months according to the EEC Commissioner for Industry, Viscount Etienne Davignon) if it is not to remain irredeemably behind its Japanese and US competitors. Even then it is by no means certain that Europe would be able to take a significant share of the rapidly
markets for their films. Only when these markets have been fully exploited will the films be screened on the broadcasttelevision networks. All over the world, the information economy is hurrying hell-for-leather towards an international market economy in which the power of nation states over the flows of information within their own states is becoming ever more difficult to maintain. While there is no doubt that some see the benefits to the individual consumer which will flow from this shift, far more of the speakers at the IIC conference saw it as a threat to the traditional patterns of business, communications,
533
and, less immediately, political stability. Ultimately, the real economic relations and flows of information of the world will either be determined by the multinational corporations-accountable to no one except, notionally, their shareholders-or they will have to be regulated in some way. It is clear that no one has the least idea how this might be possible. That, for me, was the real message of the IIC conference, but it was obscured by the noise of ‘communicator’ babble. Vincent Porter Polytechnic of Central London, UK
1
The wind of change bypasses srmowners ’
I
“Comsail ‘80”, an international symposium on wind propulsion of commercial ships, London, 4-6 November 1980 When a professional consortium as august as the Royal Institution of Naval Architects, the Institute of Marine Engineers, the Royal Institute of Navigation, and the Nautical Institute organises a three-day symposium on the subject of wind propulsion of ships it must obviously be taken seriously. The event was attended by 160 delegates from some 20 countries and 18 papers covering a wide range of subjects were presented. At one end of the spectrum, participants were offered glimpses of ships propelled by sophisticated aerofoil or wind-turbine propulsors: at the other, proposals were discussed for a relatively simple upgrading of the small working craft of such underdeveloped fishing and internal waterborne transport systems as those of Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The opening paper, by retired RAF Air Commodore C. T. Nance, surveyed the many orthodox and unorthodox
FUTURES
December
1980
ways in which wind might be employed. While these obviously covered the classic alternatives of fore and aft or square rig, a number of modern upgraded variants were described. On the entirely unorthodox front, the use of kites was later elaborated on by Professor G. W. Schaefer of Cranfield Institute of Technology. He made it clear that the kite was, in fact, capable of producing a useful force component to windward-and when this was augumented by the twist in the natural wind as height increased a theoretically viable system resulted. Subsequent contributions to the discussion indicated that the size of fabric structure necessary was technically possible and that in recent trials with small craft, kite propulsion had been shown to vindicate its theoretical promise. Less demanding in credibility was the disclosure by Mr Satchwell, of the University of Southampton, that patents had only the day before been filed covering the use of blown circulation control devices for ship propulsion. These were an application of work in the field of helicopter rotor aerodynamics originating from the National
534
Conferences
Gas Turbine Establishment and produced lift coefficients about ten times greater than a sail. A correspondingly smaller-area propulsion device might therefore be produced which could typically take the form of two towers of circular section one-third of the ship’s length in height and the same proportion of the ship’s beam in diameter. A power investment for the boundary layer controlling blowers of 500 bhp was said to be sufficient to propel a 20 000 ton vessel. Perhaps the most bizarre proposal was presented by Mr R. Rainey who suggested that a wind turbine (or windmill) could drive an orthodox propeller, which in turn was capable of propelling a ship directly to windward in calm water. In other modes of operation, with the wind from abeam the device could operate like an autogyro and produce propulsion force analogous to those of sails. Although the practicality of the concept had been vindicated on a number of small craft, one contributer to the discussion which followed drew fearsome mental pictures of the consequence of foulweather failure with such a device. The economics of profit and loss are of course the only yardstick by which the shipowner is likely to come to terms with a return to wind propulsion -and no less than four papers touched, in various degrees of detail, on this subject. Somewhat surprisingly, one protagonist was Mr E. P. Crowdy, managing director of Doxford Engines Ltd, who demonstrated convincingly that, in proper combination with auxiliary power, the current trends in oil prices made wind propulsion look increasingly attractive. However, the economics not-yet-operational of technology are notoriously difficult to assess, and opinions remained divided. amongst participants. The problems were highlighted by a theoretical example in which the available traffic coupled to the number of ships carrying it was just profitable
on a particular route. But the loss of cargo to one large sailing vessel, introduced in an experimental capacity, could then upset the economic viability of the whole fleet. Inevitably, the subject of weather is central to the operation of windpropelled ships and two papers were presented in this field. The first, by Mr J. E. Atkins and Mr D. J. Painting of the Meteorological Office, described the general global pattern of highpressure and low-pressure systems and the resultant winds. Somewhat surprisingly, it was revealed that details of the pattern were even now still being filled in--and that even in the so called ‘roaring forties’ (south of the 40” latitude line) the variability in wind direction was a good deal greater than commonly supposed. Thus the oftvoiced opinion that windward sailing ability on the ‘trade wind’ routes was of little importance could indicate a gross tactical error. Weather routing, which has now reached the stage of big business for powered ships, involves somewhat requirements for winddifferent propelled vessels, as was indicated by Dr. J. H. Mays of Windship Development Corporation USA. Both his paper (which described computer modelling of alternative routes) and others drew attention to the wide variability of wind strength. For most of the time this was a good deal lower than was necessary to produce the oft-quoted and economically desirable high speeds obtained by the best sailing vessels in their heyday. The traditional large square-rigged ship, albeit in a somewhat up-dated form, still has its supporters. Foremost among these is undoubtedly Captain of Windrose Ships M. Willoughby, Ltd, whose paper on the design problems of such vessels was coauthored by Dr. E. Corbett, a distinguished naval architect. They argued, very plausibly, that such a ship was the only one which provide a starting point from which we
FUTURES
December 1980
Conferences
could advance with absolute certainty about handling ability and performance. However, the fact that their proposed ship is considerably larger than any of its predecessors could cloud the issue somewhat. Nevertheless, it seems likely that British Shipbuilders are to build the vessel, which at a displacement approaching 20 000 tons promises to be most impressive. In a different field althogether to that of the mundane carriage of goods lies the possibility of the sailing cruise liner. While this topic was not the subject of either a paper or discussion on the there was sufficient backplatform, ground murmuring to make it fairly evident that things may well be moving in this direction with more than one operator. Any illusion that sail had in the meantime disappeared from the face of the earth was dispelled by two further speakers, Captain Morin Scott and Mr E. Gifford. The first of these, who is actively engaged on a commercial contract to add auxiliary sails to an existing coaster, showed photographic slides taken only two weeks previously of small sailing cargo carriers in Portugal. Mr Gifford presented staggering figures for the numbers of working
Last call for European
FUTURES
December 1980
craft in Pakistan and elsewhere. A relatively brief period of ‘modernisation’ through the supply of small diesel engines and outboard motors by FAO had been followed by economic reality in which increases in the cost of oil have made a return to sail inevitiable. In the same vein, Mr M. J. Jacquemin, of SociCtt Brettonne d’Etude et de Rtalisation Navale, gave details of a new type of sail-propelled fishing vessel, 19 metres in length-the first is due to be launched in April 198 1. Somewhat sadly, considering the obvious talent and enthusiasm of those present, the shipowning fraternity were largely absent, with a few notable exceptions. One cannot help wondering what contingency plans exist for survival in the event that, for example, the Iraq-Iran conflict widens to include other oil-supplying nations in the area. At such a time it is not too difficult to envisage a situation where the owner who can remain in business for six months or a year when oil is temporily in short supply may well be among the few of his competitors who are still in business when more normal times return. J. F. Flewitt Wolfson Unit for Marine Technology and
Industrial Aerodynamics, Southampton, UK
telematics
“Europe and the new information technology: a Community strategy for the 198Os”, a conference sponsored by the European Commission in association with the UK National Computing Centre, London, UK, 24 October 1980 If talking about microelectronics enough to make things happen
535
were there
would be hope for Europe. This conference had the right people saying the right things-but at the right time? The EEC must adopt a common strategy (within the next few months according to the EEC Commissioner for Industry, Viscount Etienne Davignon) if it is not to remain irredeemably behind its Japanese and US competitors. Even then it is by no means certain that Europe would be able to take a significant share of the rapidly