Turkey's predicament in the post-cold war era

Futurr.c. Vol. 28, No. 3. pp. 255-268. 1996 Copyright 0 lYY6 Elsevier Scicncc Ltd Printed m Great Britain. All rights resend

Pergamon

0016-3287196 $15.llO + o.otl

SO016-3287(96)00005-5

TURKEY’S PREDICAMENT POST-COLD WAR ERA

IN THE

Mehem Miiftder-Bat

The ultimate objective of the modern Turkish republic was to be recognized as a European state. The Cold War structures enabled the realization of that goal. Turkey’s Europeanness was defined according to its geostrategic position; it became a reliable ally for the West as a buffer state against the former Soviet Union. The disappearance of the Cold War structures have brought the importance and suitability of Turkey for Europe into debate. In order to secure its position in the European order, Turkey had to redefine its policy formulations, as determined by Turkey’s Eastern connections (whilst attending to the essentially non-Western elements in Turkey such as Kurdish nationalism and Islam). This article analyses how the new Turkish foreign policy in the Middle East, which is motivated to secure its place in Europe, brings out the non-Western elements in Turkey. The aim is to determine the extent to which such changes will shape Turkey’s futures. Copyright 0 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

1989 was a year of fundamental

change

Union

and the fall of the Berlin

arena.

The

countries under

face

from

the umbrella

dissolution new policies

among

This article

in the global caused

has changed

of the European

with

the states which

Union. bipolar

order.

The dismantling

breakthrough

changes

the transition

states to democracies

of the post-World-War-11

of the post-Cold policy.

of Europe

communist

Wall

of the

and the emergence

A new

Europe

is under

balance-of-power

are inevitably

affected

of the Soviet

in the international Eastern

European

of a united construction.

Europe The

system leads to a search for by the uncertain

environment

War era. focuses

The hypothesis

on the impact

of the end of the Cold

is that the modifications

in Turkish foreign

precarious external environment are becoming increasingly futures. The aim is to analyse the changes in Turkish foreign

Meltem Mdfttiler-Bat is Assistant Professor at the Department Sciences, Bilkent University, Ankara, 06533-Turkey (Tel: +90 [email protected]).

War on Turkey’s policy

foreign

in response to the

influential in shaping Turkey’s policy specifically towards the

of Political Science, Faculty of Administrative 312 266 4137; fax: +90 312 266 4960; email:

255

Turkey’s predicament

in the post-Cold

War era: M Miifttiler-Bat

Middle

East in the post-Cold-War

policy

changes

arrangements. hold,

period.

hampering

It is, of course,

but the article

dilemmas with

are

will

confronting

or

beyond

hopefully

Turkey

During

the Cold Turkey

alliance’,

is to assess whether

position

our scope here to predict

provide

some insights

in the post-Cold-War Turkey’s

1952

incorporation

of Turkey

security

of the Soviet

in Turkey

security.

and

Thus,

in Western

what Turkey’s

to the reader

these security

futures will

as to the security

order and the available

geostrategic

position,

of potential

instability.

Union

options

to deal

of chaos

nationalism

Against

such a background,

Turkey’s

stability’.

To quote

neighborhood a ‘wing’ policy

modified

the interests

minister

of Europe.

that

from

1993,

tried to mobilize that,

important

fails,

East. Onur

members

that,

‘If Turkey

peace

of Western

‘Turkey

place has changed

minister 1993,

lives

between

of in a

from being

among

Turkish

and represent 1983 and 1989

declared

of the Turks’.

Its

as an ‘island

on a number

Tansu Ciller,

of

prime

into a “super”economic

and economic

stability

in Europe.

She

governments

and the USA by

fail in Europe’.

The assumption

in the Turkish

will

will

have the capacity

and affect the futures

Undersecretary make

Europe’.’

have

Europe.2

from the European

Eastern politics Oymen,

wars

more profound.

to Turkey,

is transformed

to political

is that a stable Turkey

the EU would

among the Turkish policy to its eastern connections.

be the century

for her policies

in Middle

‘Joining

will

prime in April

areas

civil

in the region that can defend

the Turkish

by its

amidst

and Southern

and the USA. The perception

his death

in Western defined

location

has become

The

objectives

position is again

state to one defined

and Turkey’s

for Turkey’s

policy

USSR, numerous

the US ambassador

contribute

for example,

player that,

until

has claimed

‘If Turkey

the Middle

claimed

&al,

1989

it would

support

ministry,

influential

Turgut

Turkey’s

for stability

a buffer

is the only country

‘The 21st century

since

claiming

volition being

The

minds as

disappeared.

of foreign

in Central

NATO

bastion.’

raison d’&e

respect to its central

the former

state for Europe

is that Turkey

in the region’,

foreign

as regards

by its

of the

in Western

role for itself which

that is a 360 degrees challenge’

and the president occasions

a reformulation

has surfaced

Grossman,

state to a ‘front’ makers

power

Marc

from

question-marks

deter the Soviets-has

with

haunts

out and a rampant

bastion

since the major

alliance

however,

was determined

the need for a defensive

partner

for a new

broken

has gradually

reduces

has caused

this time,

order

as a ‘south-eastern

systems-to

is looking

the spectre

in the global

raised certain

in the Western

Turkey

In 1995,

War

threat

as a security

into Western

dismantling

place

has served

of the communist

to the importance

both

War,

since

but the end of the Cold

disappearance

with

objective

Turkey’s

these dilemmas.

geography.

role

A latent

improving

of the Turkish

not just another Underlying

makers that Turkey’s

member

foreign

an

relations

ministry,

has

but one of the most

all these claims

importance

to become

of European

is the perception

for the West has increased

due

Questions about Turkey’s place in the new European security arrangements also lead to questions concerning Turkey’s European credentials. In its search for a new role in European security, Turkey opened itself to various challenges that have been repressed since modern

Turkey

was founded.

What has been formerly

defined

as a secular,

national,

European state is openly challenged by Islamic fundamentalism, Kurdish nationalism, and Turkey’s European status is ferociously debated both in Europe and in Turkey. Thus, the reformulation of Turkish foreign policy objectives in the post-Cold-War era also brings a reformulation

256

of Turkish

identity,

an unenviable

task by all means.

Turkey’s

Turkey’s

role

in Middle

Eastern

predicament

security

in the post-Cold

War era: M Miifttiler-Bat

in the post-Cold-War

era has gained

preeminence basically because the end of the Cold War meant that Turkey

can no longer

depend on its position with respect to the strategic rivalry between the USA and the former USSR.

The

new justifying

factor for Turkey’s

uncertain and unstable environment demise.

Turkey

is surrounded

place in European security

left by the political

by areas of instability:

Caucasus and the Armenian-Azerbeijani

to the north east, there is the

dispute over Nagorno-Karabagh

north west, there is the Bosnian crisis,

that Turkey

central place for Western

security.

The only drawback in Turkey’s

that

conflict

surrounding

new

non-Western

areas

elements

of

regional stabilizer US Assistant Germany

chiefly

in its Middle

automatically Turkey’s

still

occupies a

emerging position bring

is

Turkey’s

strategic significance

Eastern context.4

Turkey’s

is

role as a

and arbiter has been emphasized for the futures of the Middle East. The

Secretary

of State, Richard

as the cutting

government’s

Turkey

to the front stage. Since 1989,

once again being assessed

region;, to the

and to the south, there is the Middle East. Contrary

to what may have been expected, the article demonstrates the

is now the

vacuum of the Soviet Union’s

Holbrooke

edge of Europe’,

claimed that, ‘Turkey

and described

Turkey

is replacing

as the American

‘new European front’.

The Middle East is greatly affected by post-Cold-War developments. Events such as the Gulf crisis of 1990-91 demonstrated that even if the superpower conflict has ended, the Middle

East is still

the area is further

a prime source of global instability.5

accentuated by the Arab-Israeli

1991 with the Madrid Framework. historically problems, Kurdish

rooted

hostilities,

The uncertainty

surrounding

peace process that began in October

The Middle East region has always been troubled by

lack of effective,

legitimate

governments

and border

and its future is going to be further plagued by issues such as water politics,

problem,

oil scarcity,

and a lasting peace for Israel and the Palestinians.

located in this highly volatile the changing security

region are therefore in search of new strategies to adjust to

needs. Turkey’s

Kurds and the Arab-Israeli

the

States

role in Middle

peace process will

Eastern security,

the future of the

markedly shape the futures of the Middle

East as well as that of Turkey. An important component shaping Turkey’s new relationship

between Turkey

the EU signed a customs

union

Europe

of security

not only

in terms

composed of two parts, eliminating Turkey’s

position in the emerging world order is the

and the European Union. agreement which

but economics

adoption of the Community’s

operation,

Turkey

from third will

as well.

The

customs

or trade creation effect on Turkey’s

parties.

When

union

for is

and the EU and adoption of

trade with third

union tariff imposed by Turkey

the customs

and

importance

Common External Tariff (CET). Turkey’s

parties depending on the level of the pre-customs originating

Turkey’s

tariff barriers to trade between Turkey

CET will either cause a trade diversion imports

On 6 March 1995, Turkey

highlights

to

union agreement is put into

have access to the European market under practically

the same

terms with the members of the EU. The customs union with the EU would also transform Turkey

into an economic platform for the Middle Eastern countries that are exporting to the

EU. Closer economic integration with the EU will have spillover effects on Turkey’s relations with the Middle Eastern countries and the Central Asian republics with which Turkey

has close economic ties. Thus,

trade between Turkey

and the Middle

East will

automatically be affected by the customs union of 1 January 1996 which would influence Turkey’s futures in the Middle East and the EU, as a bridge between the two. Central to the hypothesis

of this article is that in the post-Cold-War

era, the immediate

257

Turkey’s predicament

dilemma

in the post-Cold

that Turkey

European in both

external

overcome

and

of religious the reason among

of Turkey,

alienated

population

need

in Turkish

reformulation

because

society

position

the European

not, however,

separatism,

bring

can be

over the past five Erbakan,

back to the roots,

to the economically

is gaining the Islamic

and culturally

is an increasingly

its divergent

to

is, for example,

have boosted of Necmettin

that reconciles

out the

groups such as those in

the 199Os, there

that the futures of Turkey dilemma

in the Middle

of Turkey;

Eastern subsystem

exclusive,

they should

will

segments

be shaped

(2) instability

felt

and for a

by basically

in the Middle

of states, (3) Turkey’s

system of states, as symbolized

mutually

will

the dilemma

This dilemma

suggest going

During

that a century-old

yet these two are perceived

republic.

in Turkey

as a

its futures

identity.

(1) the cultural

ties with

affairs,

of subsystem

particularly

cities.

for a consensus

proposes

Turkey’s

they

appeals

in the major

of the Turkish

factors:

sentiments

such a claim

Thus this article major

and Kurdish

and accepted determine

it means

In its internal

of the Turkish

will

Eastern policy

Party, under the leadership

the electorate

traditions

affairs,

Middle

of the existence

the religious Welfare

it is defined

dilemma’

In its external

be overcome.

to the survival

why

whether

‘cultural

an active

fundamentalism

years. The pro-Islam support

affairs.

that following

with the recognition

be the basic threats partly

internal

elements-must only

its identity,

Eastern state. Turkey’s

belief

non-Western favour

faces concerns

or a Middle

inhibition-the

War era: M Miifttiler-Bat

three

East and

new and closer

by the EU. These three factors

be perceived

as interacting

are

vectors.

Turkey: the odd man out in the Middle East Bernard

Lewis quoted

in the Middle Turkey

is classified

conduct

Field Marshall

East’.6 Turkey

as the only

and free market

Slim as saying,

has always secular

economy.

Muslim

Turkey’s

determined

by its special

status, it is Muslim

the Middle

Eastern region

yet it is a member

is not a part of Muslim

Arab culture

Thus, it is small wonder

that Turkey

his famous

article

‘Turkey

is the only

European

been the odd man out in Middle

state that is ruled by norms of democratic

place in Middle yet not Arab, of almost

but neither is defined

‘The clash of civilizations’.

country

Eastern politics.

Eastern politics,

therefore,

is

it is geographically

located

in

all European

organizations.

is it a part of Christian as a torn country A torn country

European

by Samuel

Turkey culture.

Huntington’

in

is:

their leaders typically wish to pursue a bandwagoning strategy and to make their countries members of the West, but the history, culture and traditions of their countries are non-Western. The most obvious and prototypical torn country is Turkey...while the elite of Turkey has defined Turkey as a Western society, the elite of the West refuses to accept Turkey as such.’

Traditional Turkey’s

both

Turkish Europeanness.

cultures,

problematic.

foreign

policy

Turkey’s

and to clarify

has aimed at gaining acceptance from the West for in Europe is unique because it carries elements of

place

Turkey’s

position

in any subsystem

The end of the Cold War has made such a clarification

now Turkey is trying to formulate turbulent external environment.

a new

foreign

policy

of states is, therefore, more urgent because

in an attempt

to adjust

to its

When the modern Turkish republic was created, the assumption was that the ideal Turk was to be European in outlook, and Turkey’s place was among the European states. The transformation of the society into a European one was imposed from above, the traditionalist tendencies which favour close links with the Middle Eastern states and

258

Turkey’s

preserving Turkish

the Islamic

identity

of Turkey.

identity

predicament

of the state were

in the post-Cold

repressed.

War era: M Mdftijler-Bat

The formulation

was partly the reason for the move away from the Middle

The traditionalist

elements

of the Turkish

identity

were

closely

Pandora’s box which was reopened at the end of the Cold War. Since the dissolution of the empire, the relationship between Turkey the Middle from

East has become

the creation

foreign

policy

of the Turkish

towards

post-World-War-11 security

with

occasions

and

to convince

Rtistti

Zorlu’s

European

that

foreign

is to stop

accordingly: return,

recognition

of a European concessions.

within

power,

Turkey

and

second

OECC) in 1948, the Council long aspired incorporation

into the European

by its Europeanness

seemed

declared

Hallstein-the

During

the Cold

determined

War

by Turkey’s which

were,

the question

first,

second,

the emerging

a net importer in Turkey’s voted

caused

towards

Organization

Turkey Muslim

recently

countries

and instead

policy

role

like

a

aim,

defined

government,

demanding

in 1952 which

Agreement

of the European

in

foreign

policy

alliance. makers

policy

towards

question

identity

East was in the

of the alliance.

Eastern neighbours

in the Cyprus

crisis,

Eastern markets,

Eastern countries.

The changes it

the Palestinian

of the Palestinian power.

Turkey

issue in 1974,

and it recognized policy

and

both as

in the 197Os, when

non-interventionist

as

1963.

developments

for the Palestinian

to act as a regional

as defined

the Middle

its Middle

in the Middle

in 1976,

the

of this

‘part of Europe’,

the virtues

position

to the Middle

gave Turkey

culmination

of 1963 signed between

However,

towards

territorial

Commission-in

East can be observed

its traditional

was

as the OECD (then the

state. The decisive

for the Turkish

Conference

strived

from

organizations

(PLO) as the sole representative abandoned

be Fatih

acted

had one ultimate

The Turkish

Soviets

for all the UN resolutions

of the Islamic

of

Eastern state, and in that

Turkey’s

Union.

the

interests of Turkey

the Middle

Nations

a member

Liberation

Turkish

a shift in Turkish

economic

Turkey

The search for Turkey’s

in the Western

of support

for that would

over now that it was officially

President

Turkish

its

on a number

with the West did not

Yet,

and

in 1949 and NATO

of crude oil and as an exporter policy

in the United

became

deter

membership.

years,

place

1960s and the 1970s caused The factors

to

to be finally

Western

camp for two reasons, first to gain the status

ranks was the Ankara

for associate

by Walter

the Soviet

for being a European

the EEC and Turkey

In the

emerging

East has followed

organizations

aggression,

into such Western

of Europe

stamp of approval

in 1955.

security

and

the Western

was accepted

the period

War II, Turkish

to Israel.

Western

expansionism

and the states of

tried

that its alliance

East rather than a Middle

to act as a buffer state against

sought

the Middle government

Conference

was similar

emerging

Soviet

towards

East. The best illustration

Bandung

policy

into the newly

the Turkish

Eastern neighbours

in the Middle

the newly

policy

in a

was one of non-involvement.

to gain entry

in the Middle

at the

state located

In 1945,

its foreign

its Middle

speech

respect Turkish

strove

sealed

During

in 1923 to the end of World

Nevertheless,

pose a threat to its relations

and differentiated.’

Eastern neighbours

Turkey

the West.

formal

Republic

its Middle

period,

organizations

allegiance

more complex,

of a modern

Eastern character

people

in 1979.

among

the other

Turkey’s

foreign

policy

during the Cold War has been remarkably consistent, with primary allegiance to the West. The post-Cold-War era, however, is leading to a search for new policy initiatives for Turkey, order

but again the ultimate and to be accepted

aim is to secure its position

as part of Europe.

The futures

in the newly of Turkish

Middle East are evolving around four interacting vectors-security Kurds, the politics of water and the role of Islam.

emerging

foreign

Western

policy

in the Middle

in the

East, the

259

Turkey’s predicament

in the post-Cold

War era: M Mtiftiiler-Bat

Security in the Middle East: the Gulf crisis The breakthrough the

Gulf

crisis

leadership

change of

in Turkey’s

1990-91.

had pursued

The

an active

broke away from its traditional on Turkey’s Kuwait

relations

with

by assuming

decades

Turkey’s

reflected

were tinged

with

Turkey’s weight

Turkey

from third

The Gulf of Turkey of Western turmoil

became

became

peace

against

Iraq carried

and at

system

significant

specifically

the

half its oil exports,

to Iraq and a transit

turning

point

for Turkey’s

both the Middle

and

way for goods

in one sphere could

during

alliance.

carries

surrounded

by a group

unpredictable

place

in the Western

of potentially

unstable

in the uncertain

The Gulf crisis underlined the crisis worked

Turkey’s

limelight

of international

revealed

that ‘the persistence influence

and hostile

importance

politics

Kurdish

problem.

of a violent

domestic

in which

Turkey

of the post-Cold-War for deterrent

partner

conflict

will

in

of which

is are

era. Thus,

its

purposes.

power.

To bring the Kurdish

its interests

for the

that Turkey

At the same time,

out to a potential

consequence

and

order.

is still needed

states, the actions

by pointing

was an unintended

in the regions

as a security

as a regional

in the counterdirection

the ongoing

order

stability,

the crisis demonstrated

is important

in

to achieve

about whether

environment

therefore,

by a

were tied to stability

for the new European

of Turkey

government,

the strength

can be harmed

with the West to

importance

arguments

the

relations

both its solidarity

cooperation

the importance

void the above

alliance,

vital

with

not help but have a

to analyse

countries

the Europeans

the crisis proved

As for the Turkish

highly

to which

relations

East and the Western

how the European

and also that Turkish

the Western

a stabilizing

Eastern 8zal

security

Turkey,

for about

goods

in Ankara

it revealed

crisis demonstrated

namely

of from

The Gulf crisis erupted

through

Iraq depended

of consumer

developed

East region

West, and thus rendered

in Turkey,

Turgut

of the European

coalition passed

an important

standing

aggression

in the Middle

however,

pipelines

East, and the extent

Turkey’s

The Gulf

break

in Middle

by President

politics.

impact

and concern.”

an issue involving

because

in the Middle

this region,‘*

ijzal’s

Iraq, and

invasion

This was a major

on those in the other. ” The Gulf crisis was important

security

overcome

to the Iraqi

non-involvement

the restructuring

on which

Turgut

against

states.

and the policies

impact

oil

was an exporter crisis

West. It quickly

the

pipeline

second,

coalition.

role in regional

pessimism

coalition

responded

concerning

about

East came with

President

stance. The crisis had a significant

in the allied

Turkey’s

the Middle

under

the allied

East. Ankara

in the multinational

first,

coming

supporting

policy

considerable

participation

because

towards

role in the crisis was formulated

perceptions

Kerkuk-Yumurtalik

major

role

Turkish

active

Turkish

policy

government

non-involvement

his efforts to redefine

a time when

policy

the Middle

a central

of established

conflicts.

foreign

Turkish

weakness

problem

into the

of the Gulf War, yet it

undermine

Turkey’s

role as

and those of its Western

allies

coincide.13

The Kurds One of the pressing problems facing Turkey today is the growing sentiments of Kurdish nationalism, which is more markedly felt in Turkey’s both internal and external politics. The Turkish strategy in handling the Kurdish problem is increasingly determining its relations

260

with

the Middle

Eastern and European

states: ‘Saddam

Hussein’s

occupation

of

Kuwait

on August

2, 1990

in Middle

Eastern politics.

separate

during

in the allied

coalition

had attracted

Turkish

government

Turkey’s

relations

to

recognize

When Greeks-as

republic

the

a necessary

measure

nationalists

organized

extent

for the ongoing under

released

on 20 March

people,

the

with

‘Turkey’s longer Turkey’.

will

Yoney

is to clear

minister,

formed

the Kurdish

The clashes

they as

between

Workers’

the Turkish

to the borders

of Turkey.

in Syria,

Iran and to a certain

Iraq,

The Kurds

after the Gulf crisis with

Iraq. Turkey’s

in Northern Office

future

relations

has intensified

limited

Steel, in an

and

forces

where

and thus prevent

that Turkey

groups

in terrorism

Hikmet

Cetin,

within

would

put

are no inside a former

PKK’s logistic

the region

withdraw,

be

prime minister

as: (1) to destroy

civilians

will

Forces declared

Kurdish

an increase

the

Minister,

that ‘We will

Party and the deputy

the aims of the intervention Iraq; (2) to safeguard

involved

Armed

Iraqi

the PKK influence. People’s

against

of innocent

The Prime

1995 declared

Staff of the Turkish

to its border

and (3) to ensure

the

statement

is as follows:

its activities

of the targets’.

on 25 March

and neutralize

Ministry

the lives and security

duration

the elimination

the leader of the Republican

the with

Iran and Iraq,

Iraq, Operation

of Foreign

at protecting

of the General

bases in Northern

where

the

and that this is a

intervention.

A latent objective, however, is to demonstrate Iraqi Kurdish groups, the Kurdish Democratic

leadership

and the Patriotic

are the dominant be created leader

whether

problem.

Iraq,

Aimed

areas adjacent

and military

two

the

and the

In 1974, a group of Kurdish

momentum

intervened

of a PKK presence

is conducted;

groups,

in the south east such as Syria,

to the Nation’

has summarized

limited

by its

recognized

Jews, Armenians

left by the Gulf War. The Turkish government

be of

at the time, operation

army

following

The aim is to stabilize

foreign

living

gained

in Northern

in her ‘Address

in authority

leadership

1995 by the Information

operation

aim

community.

This at the time was perceived

state in Northern

borders

from this region.

an end to terrorism’. General Orhan

of the

determined

the state elite

process.

confined

by the Kurdish vacuum

immediately

Tansu Ciller,

Kurdish

The Muslim

in Turkey.

insurgency

‘PKK, due to lack of authority

withdrawn

Treaty.

as minorities.

vast majorities

the Turkish

to fill the political

Republic

of the

in 1923,

iicalan’s

Kurdish

determined

attempt

Turkish

that no

the plight

a peak in the 1990s.

a federated

1995,

Ozal had made it clear to the condition

is increasingly

in Turkey-the

is not, however,

Eastern neighbours

In March

to its own

for future stability

to the issue and pressed the

demands

for example,

organization

in Russia. The Kurdish

its Middle

regard

Nevertheless,

opinion

nation-building

Abdullah

terrorist

problem

hopes of creating

of the

Union,

communities

in the area with

are increasingly

some

with

problem

be bound

Iraq.

public

under the 1923 Lausanne

state and the PKK reached are dispersed

in Northern

were not recognized

Party (PKK), the main The Kurdish

would

was founded

religious

minorities

were Kurds or Alevis,

for Turkey

of the Kurdish

War era: M Miifttiler-Bat

population.

the Turkish of only

in the post-Cold

the crisis, President

international

with the European

to its Kurdish

existence

problems

state was to emerge

Kurds in the region

approach

major

the urgency

For example,

participation

Kurdish

predicament

created

Kurds’.14 The Gulf crisis underlined that Turkey’s

Turkey’s

political

Union forces.

in the area even though

of the Democratic

of Kurdistan Ankara

Turkey’s power in the area where the Party (KDP) under Massoud Barzani’s (PUK) under Jalal Talabani’s

has denied,

some prominent

Left Party, has favoured

however, politicians

leadership,

that a buffer zone would such as Bulent

the idea of a buffer zone.

Ecevit,

Ciller

the

claimed

261

Turkey’s predicament

in the post-Cold

that the operation

was conducted

right of hot pursuit. and ended

on 5 May

The spokesman ‘when

During

clear

a substantial

parliamentarians the parliament National Suleyman lnonu

about

Demirel,

between

military.

This becomes

the Iranian,

in a cabinet

redrawn,

thus reviving

Demirel

the Turkish

with the Iraqi government. Secretary

international

a terrorist

operating

that the intervention was

government

and a close

remains

agitated

that ‘Turkey

firmly

by the Turkish

ally

adjunct

will

reached

Turkey

of Musul.

in Northern

Turgut

border

by the USA was the guarantee

a brutal

23 March,

imposed with

and next-term

an arms embargo

the Gulf

the German, chairmen

integrity

of Turkey,

did not the PKK is

and we understand

that!.

government

The perception of the US a legitimate, democratic

terrorist

organization.

of the Atlantic

the EU-Turkey

French and Spanish foreign

of the EU presidency)

Steel and its possible impact that Turkey’s customs union

During

is

crisis.

are on the table

from the Turkish

and a key member

on Turkey.

be

also

that the operation

that, ‘It is in the self-defence

of the West against

when

of the USA to the operation.

announced

across an international

8zal

of the territorial

states that no such changes

to note the reaction

incursions

and Iraq should

Iraq during

is in favour

were

a peak

remains our friend in a troubled region and deserves our supp~rt’.‘~ The most severe reaction came from the European states. Germany, Holland

of the was not

action

carry out further

between

question

Holbrooke,

of Europe

of Staff,

was not eased by the

The agitation

that,

an important

to the Chief

that the operation

was to be ‘limited in scope and duration’. ‘This is an operation conducted by

government

Erdal

the lack

to the wishes

This disturbance

is such that Ankara

Ministry

minister

or in the parliament.”

century-old

It is interesting

imposed

one considers

that the border

law and he claimed

condition

bowed

this necessary’.

of State, Richard

organization

The only

authorities

on the oil fields

position

Foreign

armed

President

and that the real decision

belonging

when

Tansu Ciller,

claims

Ciller,

and the foreign

hand

governments.

implied

Tansu

of the government

meeting

the almost

similar

of Iraq. The Turkish

violate

a small group of

on by the Turkish

minister

Cetin

Eastern neighbours

if it considers

Suleyman

US Assistant

that

it once again

forces from the area demonstrated

the upper

evident

the Middle

President

Nevertheless,

Parliament,

was decided prime

The civilian

Iraqi and Syrian

Iraq

to make

with

particularly

of Prime Minister

Northern

known

declared

of Turkey,

has been’.15

the Turkish

Hikmet

branches

forces

Karadayi.

Turkey,

the

minister

various

Hakki

in advance

declarations into

prime

of

date of the armed

armed

lsmail

Outside

the

was captured.

Silahcioglu,

the citizens

the operation

which

declarations

deputy

General

mainly

the intervention

the withdrawal

is the Turkish

discussed

successful

Dogu

Turkey

began on 20 March

and ammunition

General

used against

law’ giving

which

questioned the way the decision to intervene was taken and presented with a ‘suggestion”6 for a ‘general discussion’ in the Turkish Grand

of coordination maker

of weaponry

Forces,

that these were

inconsistent

about

amount

operation,

shared the same idea. Within

Assembly The

with the ‘international

two-month

Armed

how just and how

Not everybody

forces.

in keeping

the almost

of the Turkish

it is considered

becomes

War era: M Mtiftiiler-Bat

ministers

Norway

Troika

meeting

(the previous,

one of the topics discussed

Turkey

Alliance.

It and on

present

was Operation

on the Turkish-EU customs union. There was a danger agreement with the EU to be ratified in 1995 by the

European Parliament may be jeopardized because of Operation Steel. The European Parliament passed resolutions against Operation Steel and on 26 April 1995, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has decided that if Turkey does not withdraw from Northern Iraq in a period of two months and if it does not restore

262

Turkey’s predicament

democratic

practices

Assembly summarized being

to its Kurdish

may be suspended. by Hikmet

responsible

Cetin,

Kurdish

problem

Europe

creating

and in the Middle

prime

the security

has become

Turkey’s

response

the deputy

for creating

PKK to set up bases there,

population,

The Turkish

in the post-Cold

membership

in the Parliamentary

to the European

minister,

vacuum

in Northern

important

reaction

who accused

the need for the incursion.

the most

War era: M Miifttiler-Bat

can be best

the Europeans

Iraq which

for

enabled

The bottom

the

line is that the

issue that shapes Turkey’s

futures

in

East.

Water as a source of power A third

issue that influences

Turkey

and

Iran

self-sufficient Turkish

only

strong

one of the foreign Euphrates-Firat

Two

as the

resources.”

policy

of a dam

major

rivers,

only

issues in Turkey

first country

using

Iraq with

respect

of a country’s Turkey

when

peace

power

in dealing

The Turkish

with

with

government to the alleged

other

retaliation

support

for Syrian issue hampers

because

of the

Workers’ between

alleged

backing

the Turkish

supporters

government

and the PKK leader,

intended demands

of the

Turkey

90% of the water resources

against

from

element

give

power

to

Syria as a bargaining

Ocalan,

Kurdish

there

have

government

water

retention

Syria in December

movements

relations

against

between

Turkey.

Turkey

has

1993 in The

and Syria

organization,

the

been ongoing

negotiations

over the protection

by the Syrian

Kurdish of PKK

government:

plans and to put pressure and Tigris rivers.20

of water

to the countries

is the peace pipeline

for the sale of Manavgat

on Turkey

project

which

to meet

will

is their

use the

rivers, Ceyhan and Seyhan, that rise in central water from the relatively water-abundant region

in the Gulf

and Levant

would go through Syria and Jordan ending up in Mecca; other would go from Kuwait to Oman, the Gulf pipeline.2’ negotiations

but due

active support that Syria has been giving to the PKK terrorists

water resources from two other Turkish Anatolia. The project aims at transporting of eastern

1992,

and the Syrian

aspect of the politics

on

over Syria and

are an important

water

against

separatist

separatist

Since

to harm the Turkish development for a greater share of the Euphrates

The second

government

Abdullah

Turkey suspects that the increasingly

country

Syria was the

advantage

is that about

politics

not so amicable

Party (PKK) by Damascus.

on the other.

resources

(the

rivers,

project. the upstream

of the PKK. For example,

of the Kurdish

the already

of the two

Eastern countries.

Syrian backing

by the Tansu Ciller

Kurdish

rivers

enjoys

has become

in the area for hydroelectricity

has been using water

been used as a threat

pipeline Turkey,

states, Turkey’s

the Middle

East which

is in

(1) the GAP project

do so. Turkey’s

soil. Since natural

in

Turkey

problem

resources

countries,

resources

and Tigris

from Turkish

reasons:

relatively

originate

countries.

Middle

the water

between

not effectively

to the Euphrates

it is dealing

tool in response

the water

it could

in the

of water’.

are

and Tigris,

198Os, the water

(2) the Turkish

to cause tension

that tried to exploit

these rivers is drained

East that

Euphrates

country

the one hand and Syria and Iraq, the downstream to low levels of water flow

East is the ‘politics

Middle

due to two

Anatolia)

and Tigris-Dicle; is liable

in the

Since the early

in southeast

The GAP project

in the Middle

countries

into Syria and Iraq, the downstream

position

groundwater

futures

two

resources.

and they flow

a strategically

building

Turkey’s

the

in water

territory

abundant

are

water

from Turkey

by two

water

the Western

pipelinesone pipeline

and the

In addition, there are ongoing to Israel. The role of water is also

263

Turkey’s predicament

important

in the post-Cold

in the multilateral

one of the five working October

1991,

track of the Middle

groups.

President

that was crucial

around

an essential Middle

East.24 Turkey’s

into the greater

water

is in

as one of the issues power

on a reliable

in the peace

increase

in turn,

Water

promote

towards

power

Turkey

playing

in the

Eastern countries’

the sale of water and the peace pipeline in its aspirations

be

decrease

is becoming

political

the Middle

would

East could

basis, will

in the region.

and as a symbol-of

would

which,

water

to water.

cheap

resources

scheme for Turkey

in the neighbouring

listed ‘water’

of this scarce resource

for water

in the area. Therefore,

in which

Peace Conference

to say that the next war in the Middle

as an attribute

water

on Turkey

Gorbachev respect

by providing

component-both

dependency power

fashionable

the allocation

to the Madrid

in the region. 22 Thus, Turkey’s

assessed with

Turkey,

over water,23

Eastern peace process

invitation

Bush and President

Since it has become the tension

In their joint

for peace and stability

process can be increasingly fought

War era: M Miiftiiler-Bat

as a regional

project

fall perfectly

a more prominent

role

region.

The role of Islam The final

issue for the futures of Turkey

becoming

an important

important

factor causing

the Middle countries.

Kenan Kenan

March mayors

local

of the

elections

two

and symbol

placed

only

ideology

only

real opposition

that challenges

in their

party

interact

in giving

economic

socialist

religious

better

and economic

mid-1980s would

also

support helped

seem obvious:

there

is now

is the Welfare

ties in the Islamic

capital

The WP’s votes have

in their relative

success in the

of the national

city

and

vote and the

Istanbul,

the

264

business

Party. The results of the March city

and

Party’.25

1994

its national

According

relations

and

There

is a strong growth

the pressing

the already

to

in this sentiment.

and similar

problems connection

of Islamic

demands

marginalized

Party. The expanding a tendency

its internal

seem

consciousness.27

groups

in the West to consider

for

and the urban

ties with the Middle The growing

to

between

of the population

East since

influence

of Islam

that the threat

‘communism’ has been replaced by the threat of ‘militant Islam’. Thus, many people in the West are emphasizing the role of Turkey, secular, European oriented country “Red Menace” of the Cold War

and

Party, the successor of

leadership.

18.4%

and the steady

the Welfare

such

has lost its grip over the people, ‘Islamism is the system’,26 which of course makes the WP the

fails to cope with

the increase

An

ties with

(OIC) in 1984.

most cosmopolitan

a boost.

recovery,

Islam is

politicians

since all other parties are centre-oriented external

alienation

government

with

in the hands of a Muslim

the political

sentiment

marginalization,

poor increasingly

order ideology

Turkey’s

As the Turkish services

the country’s

party in Turkey,

platform.

the

of the Welfare

of the secular

in the era where

growing

Turkish

Conference

culminated

received

cities-Ankara,

‘simultaneously

policy,

Erbakan’s

and it finally

now the representatives

elections Mango,

Necmettin they

Islam.

out of the closet.

the first head of state ever to attend

of the Islamic

in which

main

foreign

have experimented

became

towards

as it comes

is said to be Turkey’s

of Islam in Turkey

Party, under

over the past five years,

centre-are capital

expression

Salvation

1994

ijzal

for example,

tendencies

politics

Turkey’s

of the Organization

The main political increased

to diversify

Evren and Turgut

Evren,

at a meeting

the National

are the growing

in Turkish

the rise of Islam in Turkey

East. In the attempt

as President preside

element

of

as the only

that would act as a buffer to militant Islam. ‘Like the era, the “Green Peril”-green being the colour of

Turkey’s

Islam-is

described

the Western as Turkey

as a cancer

values

spreading

and threatening

increases

its ties with

jeopardize

the secular

Turkish

the bastion

against the Green

predicament

around

the security the Middle

in the post-Cold

the globe

undermining

of the Western

East, it opens

state’s survival,

War era: M Miiftiiler-Bat

the legitimacy

nations’.28

up to Islamic

yet it is perceived

Peril, as it was once perceived

of

It is ironical influences

by many

that

which

in the West as

as the bastion

against the Red

Menace.

Conclusion This article

has attempted

to demonstrate

established

new ties with

the Middle

defined

Turkey’s interacting

identity

futures

vectors:

the Kurdish Turkey

and

its foreign

security

insurgency,

its position

remain

intact

power

new

of ozal,

has alarmed

for

to explore

death.

a Turkish many

who

For example,

the negative statehood.

a regional

the BSECA and Pakistan

increased

EU and Central role

neighbour

will

main

and Central

Asian

more

republics

technical,

in the Central

Asian

economic

objective

Turks,

under

from Soviet

of which

What the future

assistance.

is increasingly who will

construction

the fear of losing ground

in the post-Cold-War The motive behind among

out the potential security, Turkey

the European

Wall’

after Ozal’s

the economic

Turkey,

of Iran,

then,

is an

in between

in linking Turkey’s

met with

rule to

network

holds,

in the east, and Turkey

involving

The famous

has been to decrease

transition

through

Ozal’s

and economic

scheme.

Asian region

Organization

and financial

competition

such

Sea to the Chinese

is to act as a leader

republics

in the

still continues

a smooth

are members.

in the near future when

Post-Cold-War

in Europe

to its standing

political

cooperation

The exploration

relations

economic

The

Turkey’s

the Adriatic

Cooperation

of economic

Thus, Turkish foreign policy this desire for regional leadership.

the West.

that would

in its perimeter

Central

bid towards

be more influential

of the pipelines

the Asia

opposition

and natural gas from the republics to Europe begins. For an effective Turkey, the EU should back Turkey against the influences of Iran and Russia.

largely

four

Asia. The futures of Turkey

influence.

‘from

and facilitate

Asia. A latent Turkish

gone. By pointing threaten European

the

over

identity

in other regions

role in the Central

Economic

get fiercer

was

Gulf crisis,

aspirations

is not just restricted

Turkish

Turkey.

change

Russia and Iran. The triangular region

power

of influence

ECO-the

and the EU through leadership

and in the

With respect to these issues,

out a new

Thus, Turkey’s

means of enhancing

is becoming

network

order.

of a Black Sea economic

sphere

Turkey’s

and the Central

of water.

to carve

the Caucasus

role

all-encompassing

by the 1990-91

has been involved

other

effects of rapid Turkey’s

East are formulated

European

the Balkans,

arenas

began

in the Middle East as illustrated

in its attempt

since 1989,

role, such as the establishment quote

policy

in Europe

War era.

bid to become

as the Black Sea zone, these

policy

the rise of Islam and scarcity

in the post-Cold

East. Turkey,

leadership,

its foreign

state.

in the Middle

in the emerging

The Turkish Middle hold

of the Turkish

acts like a regional

clarify

has diversified

development of the new Turkish foreign policy era. 2y An unexpected various tendencies in Turkey out of the closet, thereby threatening

post-Cold-War that it brought officially

that Turkey

East as a trump card for its standing

a

from in this

to transport

oil

the USA and

era has been largely determined by this bid towards regional power was states now that the Soviet danger was

problem areas in the Middle East which continue to can still secure its position as an indispensable ally of

Turkish-European

relations

are shaped with

respect to Turkey’s

Turkey’s predicament

position

in the post-Cold

in this unstable

Turkey

as an agent

European future,

especially

region

play

endangered

ensure,

an ever

or safely

remains

period, to enjoy

enjoy,

How

lasting

peace

in the forums peace

stability

to the EP stating that,

a decisive

political

role

in Madrid

East both track.

on water,

process,

then,

the Israelis

cooperation

is an important

will

‘In

in an

that it is

not be able to

also extends where

becomes

1991 unfolds.

the multilateral

regional

order

in the region

Eastern stability

between

Turkey

international

stability

in October

Within

leaders are convinced

its own borders.

unless

role in Middle

began

in the Middle

Arab-Israeli

states can rely on

one of the MEPs of the

a report

even

governmental

within

helps to promote

is the multilateral

essential

the Turkish

its own

Turkey

process which

themselves

1992,

presented

important,

stability

to be seen. Turkey’s

the peace

Dury,

more

the European

in May

region’.30

for Turkey

neighbours.3’

to which

For example,

(EP), Raymonde

will

In the post-Cold-War not enough

and to the extent

of stability.

Parliament

Turkey

War era: M Miititiler-Bat

to its

it is located

more

profound

Central

as

to a viable,

and the Arabs and the Arabs track,

Turkey’s

and economic

participation

is

development.

The

by Turkey

in this

arena to be exploited

quest for stability. The integration internal

issues,

human

rights.

Turkey’s

into the Western

such

as Kurdish

It appeared

basic

political

involved

in Middle

security,

it opens

alliance

has helped

nationalism,

Islamic

that the end of the Cold and

Eastern

cultural politics

up to various

orientation.

to deal with

to redefine

that threaten

Those

actions

power,

which

Turkey

also seem to operate predicament The

main

Turkey

obstacle

becomes

problems

come

Pandora’s

box which

cannot facing

involved

Turkish with

was sealed

Kurdish

problem

became

the parameters

since

Newruz-New

be a national

regional

is now

is that

government

or to increase schemes

politics.

more

the

Turkish

its own

internal

status is opening East as shown

felt in Turkish politics

its

for water,

This seems to be the the

in the Middle

domestic

European

of integrating the acceptance rather objectives in the

the more

power

actively

for

international

increasingly

Turkish

by the

politics;

as well.

has no option

up the they

For example,

but to recognize

claims. A number of steps have already been taken in language, the right to broadcast and publish in Kurdish In March

1995,

Day, has been officially

holiday

power

weaker.

neighbours,

Turbulence

issue, the Turkish

1992.

makers

bid towards

for post-Cold-War

the Kurdish population’s cultural that direction, the use of Kurdish holiday,

policy

in 1923.

Turkey

in post-Cold-War

its immediate

and the rise of Islam

respect to the Kurdish

a regional

making

escape

to the fore. Turkey’s

have been allowed

to become

in the Gulf crisis and the cooperation

in a counterdirection,

which

government

with

undertakes

of

more

ideology:

components of Turkish society on a basis of mutual turn, influenced the debate over foreign policy

such as its involvement

for

the question

its position

Turkey has fallen victim to the many of the tensions of the region. The challenge various ethnic and religious than assimilation has, in mid-l 990s.33

respect

becomes

its official

most of its

and

War had reopened

32 As Turkey

in an effort

challenges

Turkey

fundamentalism

of the Turkish

republic.

for the first time

celebrated President

in Turkey,

and P M Ciller

Demirel

the Kurdish

has declared

it to

came up with the concept

of ‘Constitutional citizenship’ as a political solution to the Kurdish issue. The idea of constitutional citizenship was perceived to be that a person living within the borders of the Turkish republic is considered a citizen of the Turkish Republic regardless of whether he/she Turkey.

266

is an ethnic A very

Turk, this idea bringing

likely

scenario

a redefinition

for the future

of the concept

of the Kurds

is that there

of citizenship will

in

be closer

Turkey’s

cooperation

between

President

Demirel

established

with

the

border’.34 The futures Europe

and

hand

local

and

will

Middle

these opportunities

Kurds

so a closer

and

Cold

under

KDP

cooperation

between

opened

Turkey

PUK. be

position up new

between economic

and the EU on the one

has become

if Turkey

and

should

the Turkish-Iraqi

by Turkey’s

War

East on the other used only

War era: M Mtiftiiler-Bat

Iraq to secure

be determined of the

integration

can be effectively

Iraq

functional

in Northern

end

and the Middle

in the post-Cold

in Northern

‘A strong

increasingly

East. The

for Turkey,

and of Turkey

the

that,

administration

of Turkey

the

opportunities

Turkey

has claimed

predicament

possible.

puts its own

However,

political

house

in

order. For Turkey social

to come to grips with

consensus;

the West will

its hidden,

unless such a consensus

be hampered.

The most important

the EU is the process of democratization support

of Turkey’s

customs

going

to be determinant

more

promising

union

relations

strategic

crossroads,

with

will

the EU’.35 Warren

thus both

obstacle

Turkey

The US position be even

more

Christopher

the US and the EU have

there is a need for a

relations

with the EU and

faces in its relations rights. In addition,

the EU and of Turkey’s

futures.

to the US and Turkey

economic

Turkey’s

and respect for human

with

of Turkey’s

repressed tendencies,

is reached,

fight with

with

the US

PKK terrorism

is

is that ‘A EU with Turkey valuable

has claimed major

when

it deepens

that ‘Turkey

interests

is its

is on a

in supporting

a

democratic Turkey’.36 Ciller has claimed that ‘Modern Turkey is a part of Europe’ and that the customs union with the EU has become a ‘door for more security’. Yet, for that door to remain

open,

Turkey

has to become

more

The futures of Turkey

in the post-Cold-War

states, but the future

is also shaped

create

a new social

democratic,

in line with

European

era still seem to be with the European

by Turkey’s

‘eastern

connections’

standards. system of

and its capacity

to

consensus.

Notes and references 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18.

Andrew Mango, Turkey: The Challenge of a New Role, Washington Papers No 163 (Washington, DC, 1994), page 110. European Security, 3(2), 1994, page Philip Lawrence, ‘European security: from euphoria to confusion’, 219. Turkish Daily News, 17 June 1995. Bruce Koniholm, ‘Turkey and the West’, foreign Affairs, 70(2), 1991, page 34. Affairs, G?(4), 1992, page 679. William Hale, ‘Turkey, the Middle East and the Gulf crisis’, International As quoted by Seyfi Tashan, ‘Current Turkish policy in the Middle East’, in George Harris (editor), (A Report of A Heritage Foundation Conference, 1984), page 37. Samuel Huntington, ‘The clash of civilizations’, Foreign Affairs, 72(3), 1993, page 42. Ibid, page 42. Philip Robins, Turkey and the Middle East (London, Pinter, lVVl), page 17. Sabri Sayari, ‘Turkey: the changing European security environment and the Gulf crisis’, The Middle fast )ourna/, 46(l), 1992, page 10. Robins, op tit, reference 9, page 68. See Meltem Mtiftiiler, Turkey’s Relations with a Changing Europe (Manchester, Manchester University Press, forthcoming). Henri Barkey, ‘Turkey’s Kurdish dilemma’, Survival, 35(4), 1993, page 66. David McDowall, The Kurds: A Nation Denied (London, Minority Rights Group, 1992), page 52. Briefing, 8- 15 May 1995, issue 1040, page 3. TBMM General Sekreterligi, Meclis Tutanaklari-Turkish Grand National Assembly General Secretariat, Assembly Records, March 1995, no 40. Briefing, 27 March 1995, issue 1034, page 10. The Wall Street Journal, Europe, 23 March 1995.

267

Turkey’s predicament

19.

20.

in the post-cold

War era: M M&tiler-Bat

Robins, op tit, reference 9, page 87. Ali lhsan Bagis, ‘Water in the region: potential

and prospects’, in A I Bagis (editor), Water as an Element of and Development in the Middle fast (Ankara, Hacettepe University, 1994), page 24. Erol Manisali (editor), Turkey’s P/ace in the Middle East (Instanbul, Middle East Business and Banking

Cooperation 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36.

268

Publications, 1989), page 70. George Gruen, ‘International regional cooperation’, in Bagis (editor), op tit, reference 20, page 263. The Economist, ‘The Survey of the Arab World’, 12 May 1990, page 10. Robins, op tit, reference 9, page 99. Jeremy Salt, ‘Nationalism and the rise of Muslim sentiment in Turkey’, Middle Eastern Studies, 3 7(l), 1995, page 22. Mango, op tit, reference 1, page 81. Salt, op c$ reference 25, page 24. Mehmet Ogut@i, ‘Islam and the West: can Turkey bridge the gap’, futures, 26(a), 1994, page 814. M Mtifttiler, ‘Turkey: A new player in Middle Eastern Politics’, Mediterranean Quarterly, 6(4), Fall 1995, pages 110-120. As quoted in William Hale, ‘Turkish foreign policy after the cold war’, paper presented to Eurames conference, University of Warwick, B-l 1 July 1993, footnote no 26, page 7. Mango, op tit, reference 1, page 11 1. Hale, op tit, reference 30, page 6. Claire Spencer, Turkey between Europe and the Middle East (London, Wilton Park papers, no 72, 1993), page 4. Cumhuriyet, Turkish Daily, 4 May 1995. Stuart Eizenstaat’s (the US ambassador to the EU) declaration as reported by Hurriyet, Turkish Daily, 2 June 1995. Warren Christopher’s speech in Madrid on US-EU corporation, as reported by MilLyeT, Turkish Daily, 4 June 1995.