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Uncertainty principles
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© 2015 Reed Business Information Ltd, England New Scientist is published weekly by Reed Business Information Ltd. ISSN 0262 4079. New Scientist (Online) ISSN 2059 5387 Registered at the Post Office as a newspaper and printed in England by Williams Gibbons (Wolverhampton)
Uncertainty principles The world is confusing. Science can help us cut through the noise LAST weekend, delegates from There is more turmoil to come. 195 nations agreed an ambitious This year, computers repeatedly proved they could learn and excel deal to tackle climate change. As our correspondent reported from at tasks previously considered to be uniquely human (see page 34). the euphoric final session, there That prompted warnings that was “no pause, no hesitation, no time to even breathe” – or register we could become redundant – or even extinct. Will machines put a last-minute objection – before the gavel was banged down. all but an ultra-wealthy few out of As a declaration of intent, the work? Or is the real problem that agreement is impressive. But it supposedly revolutionary digital is far too late: it would have been technologies seem to have left truly bold and timely 20 years ago. productivity largely untouched? As a call to action, it is quixotic: its aspiration of a 1.5 °C cap on global “Science reduces the uncertainties of a world warming seems almost totally continually reshaped by unachievable (see page 8). nature and technology” Nonetheless, the deal is to be welcomed. It marks the world’s Other certainties fell by the acceptance that climate change, wayside, too. The blockchain, the driven by humans’ greenhouse technology that underpins the gas emissions, is about as close digital currency Bitcoin, looks to a certainty as science can ever increasingly as though it could get – and that conclusion cannot revolutionise aspects of society be covered up or waved away. That’s a lesson we could do with ranging from commerce to law, and certainly ownership – even as learning more broadly. The Paris “sharing economy” companies deal marked a rare moment of like AirBnB and Uber test the geopolitical consensus in a year boundaries of civic authority and that has seen the world order the limits of personal property. thrown into turmoil. Efforts to At a personal level, we can’t make this upset go away have led take anything for granted. On the in many places to hasty attempts positive side, we are on the cusp to redraw the contracts between states and their citizens, including of making radical upgrades to our bodies, using everything from a raft of impractical proposals young blood to brain implants on everything from surveillance (see page 23). Less clear-cut are to migration.
nascent techniques like gene editing, or surgical procedures such a head transplants. While these undoubtedly offer medical benefits, they also challenge timeworn ideas about bodily integrity. And on the negative side, last month brought the unwelcome news that bacteria are swapping genes that confer resistance to the “antibiotics of last resort”. Our modern assumption that an infection is only rarely serious is on the verge of being overturned. As with climate change, the crisis in antibiotics has been looming for decades: and yet we have carried on dazedly dispensing them like medicinal sweets to humans and fattening treats to livestock. That may cost us dearly. The world is full of complexity and confusion. We cannot simply wish that noise away: we make much of it ourselves. But we can cut through it too. Science, while it can only ever deliver probabilistic and partial answers, helps us find the signals amid the noise: to reduce the uncertainties of a world continually reshaped by nature and technology. And our experience with climate shows that we can harness it even when it comes to dealing with the most complicated and contentious of issues. We just need to get better at that. Fast. n 19/26 December 2015 | NewScientist | 7
LEADER
LOCATIONS UK 110 High Holborn, London, WC1V 6EU Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1200 Fax +44 (0) 20 7611 1250 Australia Tower 2, 475 Victoria Avenue, Chatswood, NSW 2067 Tel +61 2 9422 8559 Fax +61 2 9422 8552 USA 225 Wyman Street, Waltham, MA 02451 Tel +1 781 734 8770 Fax +1 720 356 9217
Subscription Service For our latest subscription offers, visit newscientist.com/subscribe Customer and subscription services are also available by: Telephone +44 (0) 330 333 9470 Email [email protected] Web newscientist.com/subscribe Post New Scientist, Rockwood House, Perrymount Road, Haywards Heath, West Sussex RH16 3DH One year subscription (51 issues) UK £150 cONTACTS Contact us newscientist.com/contact Who’s who newscientist.com/people General & media enquiries Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 [email protected] Editorial Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Picture desk Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1268 Display Advertising Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1291 [email protected] Recruitment Advertising UK Tel +44 (0) 20 8652 4444 [email protected] UK Newsstand Tel +44 (0) 20 3148 3333 Newstrade distributed by Marketforce UK Ltd, 2nd Floor, 5 Churchill Place, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HU Syndication Tribune Content Agency Tel +44 (0) 20 7588 7588 [email protected]
© 2015 Reed Business Information Ltd, England New Scientist is published weekly by Reed Business Information Ltd. ISSN 0262 4079. New Scientist (Online) ISSN 2059 5387 Registered at the Post Office as a newspaper and printed in England by Williams Gibbons (Wolverhampton)
Uncertainty principles The world is confusing. Science can help us cut through the noise LAST weekend, delegates from There is more turmoil to come. 195 nations agreed an ambitious This year, computers repeatedly proved they could learn and excel deal to tackle climate change. As our correspondent reported from at tasks previously considered to be uniquely human (see page 34). the euphoric final session, there That prompted warnings that was “no pause, no hesitation, no time to even breathe” – or register we could become redundant – or even extinct. Will machines put a last-minute objection – before the gavel was banged down. all but an ultra-wealthy few out of As a declaration of intent, the work? Or is the real problem that agreement is impressive. But it supposedly revolutionary digital is far too late: it would have been technologies seem to have left truly bold and timely 20 years ago. productivity largely untouched? As a call to action, it is quixotic: its aspiration of a 1.5 °C cap on global “Science reduces the uncertainties of a world warming seems almost totally continually reshaped by unachievable (see page 8). nature and technology” Nonetheless, the deal is to be welcomed. It marks the world’s Other certainties fell by the acceptance that climate change, wayside, too. The blockchain, the driven by humans’ greenhouse technology that underpins the gas emissions, is about as close digital currency Bitcoin, looks to a certainty as science can ever increasingly as though it could get – and that conclusion cannot revolutionise aspects of society be covered up or waved away. That’s a lesson we could do with ranging from commerce to law, and certainly ownership – even as learning more broadly. The Paris “sharing economy” companies deal marked a rare moment of like AirBnB and Uber test the geopolitical consensus in a year boundaries of civic authority and that has seen the world order the limits of personal property. thrown into turmoil. Efforts to At a personal level, we can’t make this upset go away have led take anything for granted. On the in many places to hasty attempts positive side, we are on the cusp to redraw the contracts between states and their citizens, including of making radical upgrades to our bodies, using everything from a raft of impractical proposals young blood to brain implants on everything from surveillance (see page 23). Less clear-cut are to migration.
nascent techniques like gene editing, or surgical procedures such a head transplants. While these undoubtedly offer medical benefits, they also challenge timeworn ideas about bodily integrity. And on the negative side, last month brought the unwelcome news that bacteria are swapping genes that confer resistance to the “antibiotics of last resort”. Our modern assumption that an infection is only rarely serious is on the verge of being overturned. As with climate change, the crisis in antibiotics has been looming for decades: and yet we have carried on dazedly dispensing them like medicinal sweets to humans and fattening treats to livestock. That may cost us dearly. The world is full of complexity and confusion. We cannot simply wish that noise away: we make much of it ourselves. But we can cut through it too. Science, while it can only ever deliver probabilistic and partial answers, helps us find the signals amid the noise: to reduce the uncertainties of a world continually reshaped by nature and technology. And our experience with climate shows that we can harness it even when it comes to dealing with the most complicated and contentious of issues. We just need to get better at that. Fast. n 19/26 December 2015 | NewScientist | 7