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Vascular Surgery Manpower in Canada – Will I Have a Job?
JOURNAL OF VASCULAR SURGERY November 2015
1384 Abstracts
Vascular Surgery Manpower in Canada e Will I Have a Job? 1
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Shamim Lotfi , William Petrcih , Prasad Jetty , Timothy Brandys . 1 Division of Vascular Surgery, University of Ottawa; 2Ottawa Hospital Research Institute Objectives: The number of vascular surgery graduates across Canada is expected to increase significantly over the next 5 to 10 years based on the introduction of direct entry (0+5) residency programs in addition to the traditional (5+2) programs. The need for these newly qualified vascular surgeons (VSs) is unclear. This study evaluated the predicted vascular surgery manpower requirement across Canada to 2021. Methods: The estimated and projected Canadian population for each year between 2013 and 2021 was determined by CANSIM. The number of vascular surgery procedures from 2008 to 2012, stratified by age, gender, and province, was obtained from the CIHI-DAD. Future need for VSs was calculated using two methods: (1) population analysisdthe number of surgeons/100,000 population; and (2) workload analysisdthe number of procedures/100,000 population.
Results: The estimated Canadian population in 2013 was 35.15 million, and there were 212 VSs performing 98,339 procedures. The projected Canadian population by 2021 is expected to be 38.41 million, a 9.2% increase from 2013; however, the expected growth rate in the $60 age group is expected to be 30% vs 3.4% in the <60 age group. Population analysis modelling shows there will be a surplus of five VSs in Canada by 2021; however, workload analysis modelling (which accounts for the more rapid growth and larger proportion of procedures performed in the $60 age group) shows there will be a deficit of 23 VSs by 2021. Conclusions: Although population analysis projects a potential surplus of surgeons, workload analysis predicts a deficit of surgeons because it accounts for the rapid growth in the $60 age group in which the majority of procedures are performed, thus more accurately modelling future VS need. This study suggests that there will be a need for newly graduating VSs in the next 5 years, which could impact resource allocation across training programs in Canada. Author Disclosures: S. Lotfi: None; W. Petrcih: None; P. Jetty: None; T. Brandys: None.
1384 Abstracts
Vascular Surgery Manpower in Canada e Will I Have a Job? 1
2
1
1
Shamim Lotfi , William Petrcih , Prasad Jetty , Timothy Brandys . 1 Division of Vascular Surgery, University of Ottawa; 2Ottawa Hospital Research Institute Objectives: The number of vascular surgery graduates across Canada is expected to increase significantly over the next 5 to 10 years based on the introduction of direct entry (0+5) residency programs in addition to the traditional (5+2) programs. The need for these newly qualified vascular surgeons (VSs) is unclear. This study evaluated the predicted vascular surgery manpower requirement across Canada to 2021. Methods: The estimated and projected Canadian population for each year between 2013 and 2021 was determined by CANSIM. The number of vascular surgery procedures from 2008 to 2012, stratified by age, gender, and province, was obtained from the CIHI-DAD. Future need for VSs was calculated using two methods: (1) population analysisdthe number of surgeons/100,000 population; and (2) workload analysisdthe number of procedures/100,000 population.
Results: The estimated Canadian population in 2013 was 35.15 million, and there were 212 VSs performing 98,339 procedures. The projected Canadian population by 2021 is expected to be 38.41 million, a 9.2% increase from 2013; however, the expected growth rate in the $60 age group is expected to be 30% vs 3.4% in the <60 age group. Population analysis modelling shows there will be a surplus of five VSs in Canada by 2021; however, workload analysis modelling (which accounts for the more rapid growth and larger proportion of procedures performed in the $60 age group) shows there will be a deficit of 23 VSs by 2021. Conclusions: Although population analysis projects a potential surplus of surgeons, workload analysis predicts a deficit of surgeons because it accounts for the rapid growth in the $60 age group in which the majority of procedures are performed, thus more accurately modelling future VS need. This study suggests that there will be a need for newly graduating VSs in the next 5 years, which could impact resource allocation across training programs in Canada. Author Disclosures: S. Lotfi: None; W. Petrcih: None; P. Jetty: None; T. Brandys: None.