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03704 Energy efficiency fallacies revisited
17 Energy (supplies, policy, economics, forecasts)
17
estimation of the rebound effect, with special focus on the estimates done for the Netherlands. We conclude that according to every definition, empirical evidence shows that the rebound effect is minimal: between 0 and 15%.
ENERGY Supplies,
policy, economics,
forecasts
A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of 00103694 energy in the US macroeconomy Stern, D. I. Energy Economics, 2000, 22, (2), 267-283. This paper extends a previous analysis of the causal relationship of GDP and energy use in the USA in the post-war period. A majority of the relevant variables are integrated justifying a co-integration analysis. The results show that co-integration does occur and that energy input cannot be excluded from the co-integration space. The results are plausible in terms of macroeconomic dynamics. The results are similar to previous Granger causality results and contradict claims in the literature (based on bivariate models) that there is no co-integration between energy and output. A note on the causal relationship between energy and 00103695 GDP in Taiwan Yang, H.-Y. Energy Economics, 2000, 22, (3), 309-317. This paper re-examines the causality between energy consumption and GDP by using updated Taiwan data for the period 1954-1997. As a secondary contribution, the causal relationship between GDP and the aggregate is investigated, as well as several disaggregate categories of energy consumption, including coal, oil, natural gas, and electricity. Applying Granger’s technique, bidirectional causality is found between total energy consumption and GDP. It is further discovered that different directions of cause exist between GDP and various kinds of energy consumption. A view from the macro side: rebound, backfire, and 00103696 Khauoom-Brookes Saunders, H.D. Energy Policy, 2000, 28, (6-7), 439-449. This paper attempts to delineate a few key insights extracted from theoretical macroeconomic considerations of the rebound issue. The goal has been to reduce these thoughts to a clear set of assertions that, if true, would be useful points of reference in the ongoing discussion despite their non-empirical nature. Clean energy for 10 billion humans in the 21st 00/03697 century: is it possible? Fyfe, W. S. Inr. J. Cool Gtd., 1999, 40, (2-3) 85-90. The production of adequate, clean, sustainable energy for all people represents one of the greatest challenges facing the global society of today and tomorrow. It is clear that new technologies are required, nevertheless adequate energy can be provided by intelligent use of solar, geothermal and solid carbon fuels. The new technologies require integration of knowledge and expertise from science, engineering, and economics. There is also a need for new technologies in the management and use of wastes involved in energy production, including greenhouse gases. Comparative assessments of emissions from energy 00/03696 systems. Benefits and burdens Strupczewski, A. IAEA Bull., 1999, 41, (I), 19-24. This paper presents a 17t comparative assessment on the benefits and burdens related to emissions from fossil fuel and nuclear power generating systems. Air pollution and radiation releases, assumptions and approaches, and study results are all included. Dealing with environmental savings in a dynamical 00103699 economy - how to stop chasing your tail in the pursuit of sustainability Sanne, C. Energy Policy, 2000, 28, (&7), 487495. In most countries people are urged to change their pattern of consumption and lifestyle in a less-energy consuming and more environmental-friendly direction. But gains in ecoefficiency are likely to be annihilated by a larger consumption - the so-called rebound effect - resulting in an increased throughput in the economy. Here is an obvious contradiction. Another contradiction entails from the fact that most governments strive to promote economic growth, which involves an increase in consumption. The paper examines the various ways in which to tackle these contradictions in order to avoid or balance the rebound effect. Environmental policies such as green taxes may redirect consumption from one kind to another but this demands that the alternative spending is less harmful than the one dissuaded from. Two other tested means are to alter the sector mix of the economy and to shorten the working hours to match the increasing efficiency. 00103700 Defining rebound effect Berkhout, P.H.G. ef al. Energy Policy, 2000, 28, (&7), 425-432. This paper gives rigorous definitions of the rebound effect, not only in the well-described single commodity case, but also for a multiple commodity case. It is evident that the familiar laws for the single case do not hold for the multiple case. The paper describes the state of the art of empirical
414
Fuel and Energy Abstracts
November 2000
Dynamic behavior of the U.S. oil industry 00103701 Portillo, J. E. Resource and Energy Economics, 2000, 22, (2), 125-145. This paper considers two alternative models of firm dynamics and uses a non-parametric test to evaluate their empirical relevance to the US oil industry. This paper is interested in the class of models that controls the selection induced by firm liquidation and that explain how similar firms operating under the same conditions can exhibit very different activity paths. Such variability is generally associated with a source of uncertainty that is specific to the firm, generating idiosyncratic differences in behaviour over time. It was found that the data on a sample of US oil firms is consistent with the Bayesian learning model. 00103702 Dynamic energy-demand models: a comparison Yi, F. Energy Economics, 2000, 22, (2) 2855297. This paper compares two second-generation dynamic energy demand models, a translog (TL) and a general Leontief (GL), in the study of price elasticities and factor substitutions of nine Swedish manufacturing industries: food, textiles, wood, paper, printing, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, base metals and machinery. Several model specifications are tested with likelihood ratio test. There is a disagreement on short-run adjustments; the TL model accepts putty-putty production technology of immediate adjustments, implying equal short- and long-run price elasticities of factors, while the GL model rejects immediate adjustments, giving out short-run elasticities quite different from the long-run. The two models also disagree in substitutability in many cases. Energy efficiency and consumption - the rebound 00103703 effect - a survey Greening, L.A. et ~1. Energy Policy, 2000, 28, (f&7), 389-401. Technology policies are one of the options available for the reduction of carbon emissions and the usage of energy. However, gains in the efficiency of energy consumption will result in an effective reduction in the per unit price of energy services. As a result, consumption of energy services should increase (i.e. ‘rebound’ or ‘take-back’), partially offsetting the impact of the efficiency gain in fuel use. Definitions of the ‘rebound’ effect vary in the literature and among researchers. Depending on the boundaries used for the effect, the size or magnitude of this behavioural response may vary. This review of some of the relevant literature from the US offers definitions and identifies sources including direct, secondary, and economy-wide sources. A summary of the available empirical evidence for the effect for various sources is also provided. For the energy end uses for which studies are available, we conclude that the range of estimates for the size of the rebound effect is very low to moderate. Energy efficiency fallacies revisited 00103704 Brookes, L. Energy Policy, 2000, 28, (6-7) 355-366. A number of governments including that of the UK subscribe to the belief that a national program devoted to raising energy efficiency throughout the economy provides a costless - indeed profitable - route to meeting international environmental obligations. This is a seductive policy. It constitutes the proverbial ‘free lunch’ - not only avoiding politically unpopular measures like outlawing, taxing or rationing offending fuels or expanding non-carboniferous sources of energy like nuclear power but doing so with economic benefit. The author of this contribution came to doubt the validity of this solution when it was offered as a way of mitigating the effect of the OPEC price hikes of the 1970, maintaining that economically justified improvement in energy efficiency led to higher levels of energy consumption at the economy-wide level than in the absence of any efficiency response. More fundamentally, he argues that there is no case for preferentially singling out energy, from among all the resources available to us for efficiency maximization. The least damaging policy is to determine targets, enact the restrictive measures needed to curb consumption and then leave it to consumers - intermediate and final - to reallocate all the resources available to them to best effect subject to the new enacted constraints and any others they might be experiencing. There is no reason to suppose that it is right for all the economic adjustment following a new resource constraint to take the form of improvements in the productivity of that resource alone. As many others have argued, any action to impose resource constraint entails an inevitable economic cost in the shape of a reduction in production and consumption possibilities: there would be no ‘free lunch’. In the last few years debate about the validity of these contentions has blossomed, especially under the influence of writers on the Western side of the Atlantic. In this contribution the author outlines the original arguments for questioning whether raised efficiency leads to lower consumption, reports more recent developments and offers some insights as food for further thought. 00103705 Energy efficiency: rebounding to a sound analytical perspective Laitner, J. A. Energy Policy, 2000, 28, (157), 471-475. Recent controversy suggests that energy efficiency policies used to reduce carbon emissions might actually increase overall energy consumption. The result would be an unintended increase in carbon emissions. This paper examines the underlying issues of this so-called ‘rebound effect’ from both a
17
estimation of the rebound effect, with special focus on the estimates done for the Netherlands. We conclude that according to every definition, empirical evidence shows that the rebound effect is minimal: between 0 and 15%.
ENERGY Supplies,
policy, economics,
forecasts
A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of 00103694 energy in the US macroeconomy Stern, D. I. Energy Economics, 2000, 22, (2), 267-283. This paper extends a previous analysis of the causal relationship of GDP and energy use in the USA in the post-war period. A majority of the relevant variables are integrated justifying a co-integration analysis. The results show that co-integration does occur and that energy input cannot be excluded from the co-integration space. The results are plausible in terms of macroeconomic dynamics. The results are similar to previous Granger causality results and contradict claims in the literature (based on bivariate models) that there is no co-integration between energy and output. A note on the causal relationship between energy and 00103695 GDP in Taiwan Yang, H.-Y. Energy Economics, 2000, 22, (3), 309-317. This paper re-examines the causality between energy consumption and GDP by using updated Taiwan data for the period 1954-1997. As a secondary contribution, the causal relationship between GDP and the aggregate is investigated, as well as several disaggregate categories of energy consumption, including coal, oil, natural gas, and electricity. Applying Granger’s technique, bidirectional causality is found between total energy consumption and GDP. It is further discovered that different directions of cause exist between GDP and various kinds of energy consumption. A view from the macro side: rebound, backfire, and 00103696 Khauoom-Brookes Saunders, H.D. Energy Policy, 2000, 28, (6-7), 439-449. This paper attempts to delineate a few key insights extracted from theoretical macroeconomic considerations of the rebound issue. The goal has been to reduce these thoughts to a clear set of assertions that, if true, would be useful points of reference in the ongoing discussion despite their non-empirical nature. Clean energy for 10 billion humans in the 21st 00/03697 century: is it possible? Fyfe, W. S. Inr. J. Cool Gtd., 1999, 40, (2-3) 85-90. The production of adequate, clean, sustainable energy for all people represents one of the greatest challenges facing the global society of today and tomorrow. It is clear that new technologies are required, nevertheless adequate energy can be provided by intelligent use of solar, geothermal and solid carbon fuels. The new technologies require integration of knowledge and expertise from science, engineering, and economics. There is also a need for new technologies in the management and use of wastes involved in energy production, including greenhouse gases. Comparative assessments of emissions from energy 00/03696 systems. Benefits and burdens Strupczewski, A. IAEA Bull., 1999, 41, (I), 19-24. This paper presents a 17t comparative assessment on the benefits and burdens related to emissions from fossil fuel and nuclear power generating systems. Air pollution and radiation releases, assumptions and approaches, and study results are all included. Dealing with environmental savings in a dynamical 00103699 economy - how to stop chasing your tail in the pursuit of sustainability Sanne, C. Energy Policy, 2000, 28, (&7), 487495. In most countries people are urged to change their pattern of consumption and lifestyle in a less-energy consuming and more environmental-friendly direction. But gains in ecoefficiency are likely to be annihilated by a larger consumption - the so-called rebound effect - resulting in an increased throughput in the economy. Here is an obvious contradiction. Another contradiction entails from the fact that most governments strive to promote economic growth, which involves an increase in consumption. The paper examines the various ways in which to tackle these contradictions in order to avoid or balance the rebound effect. Environmental policies such as green taxes may redirect consumption from one kind to another but this demands that the alternative spending is less harmful than the one dissuaded from. Two other tested means are to alter the sector mix of the economy and to shorten the working hours to match the increasing efficiency. 00103700 Defining rebound effect Berkhout, P.H.G. ef al. Energy Policy, 2000, 28, (&7), 425-432. This paper gives rigorous definitions of the rebound effect, not only in the well-described single commodity case, but also for a multiple commodity case. It is evident that the familiar laws for the single case do not hold for the multiple case. The paper describes the state of the art of empirical
414
Fuel and Energy Abstracts
November 2000
Dynamic behavior of the U.S. oil industry 00103701 Portillo, J. E. Resource and Energy Economics, 2000, 22, (2), 125-145. This paper considers two alternative models of firm dynamics and uses a non-parametric test to evaluate their empirical relevance to the US oil industry. This paper is interested in the class of models that controls the selection induced by firm liquidation and that explain how similar firms operating under the same conditions can exhibit very different activity paths. Such variability is generally associated with a source of uncertainty that is specific to the firm, generating idiosyncratic differences in behaviour over time. It was found that the data on a sample of US oil firms is consistent with the Bayesian learning model. 00103702 Dynamic energy-demand models: a comparison Yi, F. Energy Economics, 2000, 22, (2) 2855297. This paper compares two second-generation dynamic energy demand models, a translog (TL) and a general Leontief (GL), in the study of price elasticities and factor substitutions of nine Swedish manufacturing industries: food, textiles, wood, paper, printing, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, base metals and machinery. Several model specifications are tested with likelihood ratio test. There is a disagreement on short-run adjustments; the TL model accepts putty-putty production technology of immediate adjustments, implying equal short- and long-run price elasticities of factors, while the GL model rejects immediate adjustments, giving out short-run elasticities quite different from the long-run. The two models also disagree in substitutability in many cases. Energy efficiency and consumption - the rebound 00103703 effect - a survey Greening, L.A. et ~1. Energy Policy, 2000, 28, (f&7), 389-401. Technology policies are one of the options available for the reduction of carbon emissions and the usage of energy. However, gains in the efficiency of energy consumption will result in an effective reduction in the per unit price of energy services. As a result, consumption of energy services should increase (i.e. ‘rebound’ or ‘take-back’), partially offsetting the impact of the efficiency gain in fuel use. Definitions of the ‘rebound’ effect vary in the literature and among researchers. Depending on the boundaries used for the effect, the size or magnitude of this behavioural response may vary. This review of some of the relevant literature from the US offers definitions and identifies sources including direct, secondary, and economy-wide sources. A summary of the available empirical evidence for the effect for various sources is also provided. For the energy end uses for which studies are available, we conclude that the range of estimates for the size of the rebound effect is very low to moderate. Energy efficiency fallacies revisited 00103704 Brookes, L. Energy Policy, 2000, 28, (6-7) 355-366. A number of governments including that of the UK subscribe to the belief that a national program devoted to raising energy efficiency throughout the economy provides a costless - indeed profitable - route to meeting international environmental obligations. This is a seductive policy. It constitutes the proverbial ‘free lunch’ - not only avoiding politically unpopular measures like outlawing, taxing or rationing offending fuels or expanding non-carboniferous sources of energy like nuclear power but doing so with economic benefit. The author of this contribution came to doubt the validity of this solution when it was offered as a way of mitigating the effect of the OPEC price hikes of the 1970, maintaining that economically justified improvement in energy efficiency led to higher levels of energy consumption at the economy-wide level than in the absence of any efficiency response. More fundamentally, he argues that there is no case for preferentially singling out energy, from among all the resources available to us for efficiency maximization. The least damaging policy is to determine targets, enact the restrictive measures needed to curb consumption and then leave it to consumers - intermediate and final - to reallocate all the resources available to them to best effect subject to the new enacted constraints and any others they might be experiencing. There is no reason to suppose that it is right for all the economic adjustment following a new resource constraint to take the form of improvements in the productivity of that resource alone. As many others have argued, any action to impose resource constraint entails an inevitable economic cost in the shape of a reduction in production and consumption possibilities: there would be no ‘free lunch’. In the last few years debate about the validity of these contentions has blossomed, especially under the influence of writers on the Western side of the Atlantic. In this contribution the author outlines the original arguments for questioning whether raised efficiency leads to lower consumption, reports more recent developments and offers some insights as food for further thought. 00103705 Energy efficiency: rebounding to a sound analytical perspective Laitner, J. A. Energy Policy, 2000, 28, (157), 471-475. Recent controversy suggests that energy efficiency policies used to reduce carbon emissions might actually increase overall energy consumption. The result would be an unintended increase in carbon emissions. This paper examines the underlying issues of this so-called ‘rebound effect’ from both a