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00684 Green electricity policies in the United States: case study
06 Electrical power supply and utilization (economics, policy, supplies, forecasts) listic settings, w h e n it is obvious that it is joint dominance, not single d o m i n a n c e that may result. The results from the simulations suggest that in most cases the unilateral effects will decrease the welfare. The outcome of the qualitative elaboration using the tacit collusion framework basically confirms these results.
06•00681 Electricity consumption and ICT in the French service sector Collard, F. et al. Energy Economics, 2005, 27, (3), 541 550. The paper d o c u m e n t s the evolution of electricity use and the d e v e l o p m e n t of information and c o m m u n i c a t i o n (IC) technologies in the French service sector. To that purpose, the authors put together two data sets d o c u m e n t i n g electricity consumption and the diffusion of IC capital goods. Using a simple factor d e m a n d model, the authors estimate the structural p a r a m e t e r s of the model using both the time series and the cross-sectional dimension of the data, and allow for a specific effect of IC capital goods on the efficiency of electricity in production. They obtain robust results showing that, once controlled for technical progress, prices, and h e a t e d areas, electricity intensity of production increases with computers and software, while it decreases with the diffusion of c o m m u n i c a t i o n device.
06•00682 Empirical observations of bidding patterns in Australia's National Electricity Market Hu, X. et al. Energy Policy, 2005, 33, (16), 2075 2086. For more than a decade, electricity industries have been undergoing reform worldwide. However, there are various, sometimes contradictory, conclusions about the performance of these restructured electricity markets. M a r k e t performance depends largely on how each m a r k e t participant responds to the m a r k e t design including m a r k e t rules, m a r k e t o p e r a t i o n a l procedures, and information revelation. This p a p e r identifies and examines the strategies a d o p t e d by generators in Australia's National Electricity Market, based on publicly available data for the period from May 1, 2002 to May 31, 2003. The authors try to u n d e r s t a n d and answer some basic questions like how generators respond collectively or individually to changes in m a r k e t conditions (e.g. load changes) and why they behave in this way. The statistics calculated from the data show that wide variations in the frequency of strategic bidding and rebidding exist; that generators more frequently use capacity offers as a strategic tool than price offers; that large g e n e r a t i n g units are more likely to use capacity strategies to control m a r k e t prices; and that generators are capable of r e s p o n d i n g to changes in m a r k e t conditions.
06•00683 Forecasting regional electricity load based on recurrent support vector machines with genetic algorithms Pai, P.-F. and Hong, W.-C. Electric Power Systems Research, 2005, 74, (37, 417 425. A c c o m p a n y i n g deregulation of electricity industry, accurate load forecasting of the future electricity d e m a n d has b e e n the most i m p o r t a n t role in regional or national power system strategy management. Electricity load forecasting is complex to conduct due to its nonlinearity of influenced factors. Support vector machines (SVMs) have been successfully employed to solve nonlinear regression and time series problems. However, the application for load forecasting is rare. In this study, a recurrent support vector machines with genetic algorithms ( R S V M G ) is proposed to forecast electricity load. In addition, genetic algorithms (GAs) are used to d e t e r m i n e free p a r a m e t e r s of support vector machines. Subsequently, examples of electricity load data from Taiwan are used to illustrate the performance of proposed R S V M G model. The empirical results reveal that the proposed model outperforms the SVM model, artificial neural network (ANN) m o d e l and regression model. Consequently, the R S V M G m o d e l provides a promising alternative for forecasting electricity load in power industry.
06•00684 Green electricity policies in the United States: case study Menz, F. C. Energy Policy, 2005, 33, (18), 2398 2410. W h i l e there has been interest in p r o m o t i n g the use of renewable energy in electricity production for a n u m b e r of years in the U n i t e d States, the m a r k e t share of non-hydro renewable energy sources in electricity p r o d u c t i o n has r e m a i n e d at a b o u t 2 percent over the past decade. The p a p e r reviews the principal energy resources used for electricity production, considers the changing regulatory e n v i r o n m e n t for the electricity industry, and describes g o v e r n m e n t policies that have been used to p r o m o t e green electricity in the U n i t e d States, with an emphasis on measures adopted by state governments. Factors influencing the d e v e l o p m e n t of green power markets are also discussed, including underlying economic issues, public policy measures, the regulatory environment, external costs, and subsidies. W i t h o u t significant increases in fossil fuel prices, much more stringent e n v i r o n m e n t a l regulations, or significant changes in electricity customer preferences, green electricity markets are likely to develop slowly in the U n i t e d States.
06•00685 Household-electric equipment diffusion and the impacts in the demand of residential electric energy in Brazil Mariotoni, C. A. and Santos, P. R. Energy and Buildings, 2005, 37, (8), 853 857. The sizing and the distribution of the circuits, e q u i p m e n t s of illumination and wall sockets of a household building are planned to offer a certain comfort to the users. The comfort is associated to a psychological state of welfare and depends on an ample a m o u n t of factors. The residences consume a b o u t 26%, of the total electric energy in Sao Paulo state and the tasks aimed to the optimization of the energy use must consider the household use. Currently, the Brazilian m a r k e t of electric energy grows to a tax of 4.5%, per year and during the last decades, the c o n s u m p t i o n of electrical energy p r e s e n t e d superior tables of expansion to the gross domestic product (GDP). This growth showed up larger the household, commercial and agricultural consumers. The standards of comfort and performance change as the time goes by, with the incorporation of new technologies. The n u m b e r of household appliances has been increased by the years, as well as the use of new equipments, d e m a n d i n g alterations in the electric projects to attend to this comfort of use.
06•00686 Impacts of a common green certificate market on electricity and CO2-emission markets in the Nordic countries Unger, T. and Ahlgren, E. O. Energy Policy, 2005, 33, (16), 2152 2163. The purpose of this study is to analyse the effects of introducing a c o m m o n Nordic system for tradable green certificates (TGCs) on the electricity m a r k e t and a future m a r k e t for tradable CO2-emission permits (TEPs). In the analysis, the energy-system model generator M A R K A L was used to model the electricity and district-heating supply systems in the four Nordic countries Sweden, Norway, Finland and D e n m a r k . It is shown that the introduction of TGC quotas reduces wholesale electricity and TEP prices. The impact on the latter is very pronounced. R e t a i l electricity prices may b e c o m e lower or higher, d e p e n d i n g on the TGC quota, than if obligations to fulfill TGC quotas were absent. The TGC scheme's efficiency in reducing a specific a m o u n t of CO2 emissions is also c o m p a r e d to the corresponding efficiency of a TEP scheme involving a b r o a d e r range of technologies. F u r t h e r m o r e , obligations to fulfil TGC quotas affect i n v e s t m e n t incentives for new non-renewable electricity supply. This seems especially true for gas-fired power plants. Finally, it is indicated that electricity supply based on biomass combustion d o m i n a t e s the TGC scheme, at least in the short run.
06•00687 Implementation strategy for small CHP-plants in a competitive market: the case of Lithuania Lurid, H. et al. Applied Energy, 2005, 82, (3), 214 227. W i t h i n five years from now, L i t h u a n i a is going to close down Ignalina, the only nuclear-power plant in the country. Since Ignalina generates more than 75%, of the L i t h u a n i a n electricity production, new generation capacities are needed. Traditional steam-turbines, fuelled with fossil fuels, would m e a n further imports of fuel as well as a rise in CO2 emissions. A t the same time, several small district-heating companies one suffering from high heating-prices. Typically, the price in small towns is 20 50%, higher than the price in large urban areas. Consequently, alternative strategies should be considered. This article analyses the conditions for one such strategy, namely the r e p l a c e m e n t of boilers in the existing district-heating supplies with combined heatand-power production (CHP). C o m p a r e d with new power stations, fuel can be saved and CO2-emissions reduced. Also this strategy can be used to level the difference between low heating prices in the large urban areas and high prices in small towns and villages.
06•00688 Letting the (energy) Gini out of the bottle: Lorenz curves of cumulative electricity consumption and Gini coefficients as metrics of energy distribution and equity Jacobson, A. et al. Energy Policy, 2005, 33, (14), 1825 1832. Energy services are f u n d a m e n t a l d e t e r m i n a n t s of the quality of life as well as the economic vitality of both industrialized and developing nations. Few analytic tools exist, however, to explore changes in individual, household, and national levels of energy consumption and utilization. In order to contribute to such analyses, the authors extend the application of Lorenz curves to energy consumption. They examined the distribution of residential electricity consumption in five countries: Norway, USA, E1 Salvador, Thailand, and Kenya. These countries exhibit a d r a m a t i c range of energy profiles, with electricity consumption far more evenly distributed across the p o p u l a t i o n in some industrialized nations than others, and with further significant differences in the Lorenz distribution between industrialized and industrializing economies. The metric also provides critical insights into the t e m p o r a l evolution of energy m a n a g e m e n t in different states and nations. The authors illustrate this with a preliminary longitudinal study of commercial and industrial electricity use in California during the economically volatile 1990s. Finally, the authors explore the limits of Lorenz analyses for u n d e r s t a n d i n g energy equity through a discussion of the roles that variations in energy conversion efficiency
Fuel and Energy Abstracts
March 2006
103
06•00681 Electricity consumption and ICT in the French service sector Collard, F. et al. Energy Economics, 2005, 27, (3), 541 550. The paper d o c u m e n t s the evolution of electricity use and the d e v e l o p m e n t of information and c o m m u n i c a t i o n (IC) technologies in the French service sector. To that purpose, the authors put together two data sets d o c u m e n t i n g electricity consumption and the diffusion of IC capital goods. Using a simple factor d e m a n d model, the authors estimate the structural p a r a m e t e r s of the model using both the time series and the cross-sectional dimension of the data, and allow for a specific effect of IC capital goods on the efficiency of electricity in production. They obtain robust results showing that, once controlled for technical progress, prices, and h e a t e d areas, electricity intensity of production increases with computers and software, while it decreases with the diffusion of c o m m u n i c a t i o n device.
06•00682 Empirical observations of bidding patterns in Australia's National Electricity Market Hu, X. et al. Energy Policy, 2005, 33, (16), 2075 2086. For more than a decade, electricity industries have been undergoing reform worldwide. However, there are various, sometimes contradictory, conclusions about the performance of these restructured electricity markets. M a r k e t performance depends largely on how each m a r k e t participant responds to the m a r k e t design including m a r k e t rules, m a r k e t o p e r a t i o n a l procedures, and information revelation. This p a p e r identifies and examines the strategies a d o p t e d by generators in Australia's National Electricity Market, based on publicly available data for the period from May 1, 2002 to May 31, 2003. The authors try to u n d e r s t a n d and answer some basic questions like how generators respond collectively or individually to changes in m a r k e t conditions (e.g. load changes) and why they behave in this way. The statistics calculated from the data show that wide variations in the frequency of strategic bidding and rebidding exist; that generators more frequently use capacity offers as a strategic tool than price offers; that large g e n e r a t i n g units are more likely to use capacity strategies to control m a r k e t prices; and that generators are capable of r e s p o n d i n g to changes in m a r k e t conditions.
06•00683 Forecasting regional electricity load based on recurrent support vector machines with genetic algorithms Pai, P.-F. and Hong, W.-C. Electric Power Systems Research, 2005, 74, (37, 417 425. A c c o m p a n y i n g deregulation of electricity industry, accurate load forecasting of the future electricity d e m a n d has b e e n the most i m p o r t a n t role in regional or national power system strategy management. Electricity load forecasting is complex to conduct due to its nonlinearity of influenced factors. Support vector machines (SVMs) have been successfully employed to solve nonlinear regression and time series problems. However, the application for load forecasting is rare. In this study, a recurrent support vector machines with genetic algorithms ( R S V M G ) is proposed to forecast electricity load. In addition, genetic algorithms (GAs) are used to d e t e r m i n e free p a r a m e t e r s of support vector machines. Subsequently, examples of electricity load data from Taiwan are used to illustrate the performance of proposed R S V M G model. The empirical results reveal that the proposed model outperforms the SVM model, artificial neural network (ANN) m o d e l and regression model. Consequently, the R S V M G m o d e l provides a promising alternative for forecasting electricity load in power industry.
06•00684 Green electricity policies in the United States: case study Menz, F. C. Energy Policy, 2005, 33, (18), 2398 2410. W h i l e there has been interest in p r o m o t i n g the use of renewable energy in electricity production for a n u m b e r of years in the U n i t e d States, the m a r k e t share of non-hydro renewable energy sources in electricity p r o d u c t i o n has r e m a i n e d at a b o u t 2 percent over the past decade. The p a p e r reviews the principal energy resources used for electricity production, considers the changing regulatory e n v i r o n m e n t for the electricity industry, and describes g o v e r n m e n t policies that have been used to p r o m o t e green electricity in the U n i t e d States, with an emphasis on measures adopted by state governments. Factors influencing the d e v e l o p m e n t of green power markets are also discussed, including underlying economic issues, public policy measures, the regulatory environment, external costs, and subsidies. W i t h o u t significant increases in fossil fuel prices, much more stringent e n v i r o n m e n t a l regulations, or significant changes in electricity customer preferences, green electricity markets are likely to develop slowly in the U n i t e d States.
06•00685 Household-electric equipment diffusion and the impacts in the demand of residential electric energy in Brazil Mariotoni, C. A. and Santos, P. R. Energy and Buildings, 2005, 37, (8), 853 857. The sizing and the distribution of the circuits, e q u i p m e n t s of illumination and wall sockets of a household building are planned to offer a certain comfort to the users. The comfort is associated to a psychological state of welfare and depends on an ample a m o u n t of factors. The residences consume a b o u t 26%, of the total electric energy in Sao Paulo state and the tasks aimed to the optimization of the energy use must consider the household use. Currently, the Brazilian m a r k e t of electric energy grows to a tax of 4.5%, per year and during the last decades, the c o n s u m p t i o n of electrical energy p r e s e n t e d superior tables of expansion to the gross domestic product (GDP). This growth showed up larger the household, commercial and agricultural consumers. The standards of comfort and performance change as the time goes by, with the incorporation of new technologies. The n u m b e r of household appliances has been increased by the years, as well as the use of new equipments, d e m a n d i n g alterations in the electric projects to attend to this comfort of use.
06•00686 Impacts of a common green certificate market on electricity and CO2-emission markets in the Nordic countries Unger, T. and Ahlgren, E. O. Energy Policy, 2005, 33, (16), 2152 2163. The purpose of this study is to analyse the effects of introducing a c o m m o n Nordic system for tradable green certificates (TGCs) on the electricity m a r k e t and a future m a r k e t for tradable CO2-emission permits (TEPs). In the analysis, the energy-system model generator M A R K A L was used to model the electricity and district-heating supply systems in the four Nordic countries Sweden, Norway, Finland and D e n m a r k . It is shown that the introduction of TGC quotas reduces wholesale electricity and TEP prices. The impact on the latter is very pronounced. R e t a i l electricity prices may b e c o m e lower or higher, d e p e n d i n g on the TGC quota, than if obligations to fulfill TGC quotas were absent. The TGC scheme's efficiency in reducing a specific a m o u n t of CO2 emissions is also c o m p a r e d to the corresponding efficiency of a TEP scheme involving a b r o a d e r range of technologies. F u r t h e r m o r e , obligations to fulfil TGC quotas affect i n v e s t m e n t incentives for new non-renewable electricity supply. This seems especially true for gas-fired power plants. Finally, it is indicated that electricity supply based on biomass combustion d o m i n a t e s the TGC scheme, at least in the short run.
06•00687 Implementation strategy for small CHP-plants in a competitive market: the case of Lithuania Lurid, H. et al. Applied Energy, 2005, 82, (3), 214 227. W i t h i n five years from now, L i t h u a n i a is going to close down Ignalina, the only nuclear-power plant in the country. Since Ignalina generates more than 75%, of the L i t h u a n i a n electricity production, new generation capacities are needed. Traditional steam-turbines, fuelled with fossil fuels, would m e a n further imports of fuel as well as a rise in CO2 emissions. A t the same time, several small district-heating companies one suffering from high heating-prices. Typically, the price in small towns is 20 50%, higher than the price in large urban areas. Consequently, alternative strategies should be considered. This article analyses the conditions for one such strategy, namely the r e p l a c e m e n t of boilers in the existing district-heating supplies with combined heatand-power production (CHP). C o m p a r e d with new power stations, fuel can be saved and CO2-emissions reduced. Also this strategy can be used to level the difference between low heating prices in the large urban areas and high prices in small towns and villages.
06•00688 Letting the (energy) Gini out of the bottle: Lorenz curves of cumulative electricity consumption and Gini coefficients as metrics of energy distribution and equity Jacobson, A. et al. Energy Policy, 2005, 33, (14), 1825 1832. Energy services are f u n d a m e n t a l d e t e r m i n a n t s of the quality of life as well as the economic vitality of both industrialized and developing nations. Few analytic tools exist, however, to explore changes in individual, household, and national levels of energy consumption and utilization. In order to contribute to such analyses, the authors extend the application of Lorenz curves to energy consumption. They examined the distribution of residential electricity consumption in five countries: Norway, USA, E1 Salvador, Thailand, and Kenya. These countries exhibit a d r a m a t i c range of energy profiles, with electricity consumption far more evenly distributed across the p o p u l a t i o n in some industrialized nations than others, and with further significant differences in the Lorenz distribution between industrialized and industrializing economies. The metric also provides critical insights into the t e m p o r a l evolution of energy m a n a g e m e n t in different states and nations. The authors illustrate this with a preliminary longitudinal study of commercial and industrial electricity use in California during the economically volatile 1990s. Finally, the authors explore the limits of Lorenz analyses for u n d e r s t a n d i n g energy equity through a discussion of the roles that variations in energy conversion efficiency
Fuel and Energy Abstracts
March 2006
103