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01466 Integrated assessment and energy analysis: quality assurance in multi-criteria analysis of sustainability
16 Energy (supplies, policy, economics, forecasts) lead to the absence or to less constraining national measures and policies of reduction of the G H G s emissions which, in turn, may d e t e r m i n e a comparative advantage in the p r o d u c t i o n of the highest energy/carbon intensive commodities for these countries. These a r g u m e n t s are valid also considering the future i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of the E u r o p e a n Emission Allowance Trading Scheme (EATS). Thus, developing countries may b e c o m e a haven for the p r o d u c t i o n of not environmental-friendly commodities; in this case, the so-called Pollution Haven Hypothesis, stating that due to freer i n t e r n a t i o n a l trade the comparative advantage may change the economic structure and consequently the trade patterns of the countries linked by trade relationships, could occur. This would lead to the increase of the transfers of energy and carbon e m b o d i e d in traded commodities from developing countries and transition economies toward Kyoto or EATS constrained countries. The aim of this p a p e r is to verify if for Italy, as a Kyoto and EATS complying country, evidence of a change in the trade patterns, occurred on the basis of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis, does exist and to estimate the m a g n i t u d e of the u n d e r - e s t i m a t i o n of the carbon actually emitted: the carbon leakage. The I n p u ~ O u t p u t m o d e l has been used to calculate the intensities of energy c o n s u m p t i o n and the related G r e e n H o u s e Gases emission, for each Italian economic sector.
06•01465 How much market do market-based instruments create? An analysis for the case of 'white' certificates Langniss, O. and Praetorius, B. Energy Policy, 2006, 34, (2), 200 211. A m o n g the diverse economic instruments to foster energy efficiency ( E E ) and climate protection, tradable certificates have been investigated for renewable energy, and the E U directive on an emissionstrading scheme for CO2 certificates has been approved in 2003. In contrast, tradable energy efficiency or 'white' certificates have only lately been considered as a m a r k e t - b a s e d tool to foster E E as c o m p a r e d with standards and labelling, for example. Theoretically, there is little d o u b t about the advantages. In practice, however, some f u n d a m e n t a l p r o b l e m s arise. Critical issues are the design of an efficient artificial m a r k e t for white certificates, its compatibility with the E u r o p e a n emissions-trading system, the identification of a suitable target group for an E E obligation and the m e a s u r e m e n t of energy savings as c o m p a r e d with a reference use of energy. The authors use the theoretical framework of transaction cost economics to elaborate these issues and conclude that transaction costs and investment specificity will restrict m a r k e t s for white certificates in practice. L o n g - t e r m contracts rather than spot trade will be the prevailing form of governance for E E investments.
06•01466 Integrated assessment and energy analysis: quality assurance in multi-criteria analysis of sustainability Giampietro, M. et al. Energy, 2006, 31, (1), 59 86. Science for sustainability policy requires the h a n d l i n g of multid i m e n s i o n a l and multi-scale analyses. I n t e g r a t e d assessment is about g e n e r a t i n g information relevant for decision-making. This generates a divide between two scientific paradigms: (1) 'Post-Normal Science' acknowledges the unavoidable existence of non-equivalent perceptions and representations of the reality; legitimate but contrasting perspectives found a m o n g social actors; heavy levels of uncertainty. (2) ' N o r m a l Science', believes that it is possible to h a n d l e in a rigorous and rational way these challenges and that therefore it is possible to define in substantive terms 'the best course of action' for society. This p a p e r is written to explain the reasons and the tools developed by scientists working within the Post-Normal Science paradigm.
06•01467 Municipalities and energy efficiency in countries in transition. Review of factors that determine municipal involvement in the markets for energy services and energy efficient equipment, or how to augment the role of municipalities as market players Rezessy, S. et al. Energy Policy, 2006, 34, (2), 223 237. It is widely recognized that many cost-efficient opportunities to employ end-use energy efficiency measures exist in countries in transition (CITs) and that municipal authorities have an essential role to play in capturing these opportunities. The aim of this p a p e r is to review the factors that d e t e r m i n e the degree of involvement of local authorities in the m a r k e t for energy services and energy efficient (EE) e q u i p m e n t in three CITs: Bulgaria, H u n g a r y and the F o r m e r Yugoslav R e p u b l i c of M a c e d o n i a (hereafter: Macedonia). This is achieved examining the current status of local governments as the most powerful d e t e r m i n a n t of municipal m a r k e t involvement. Two broad groups of factors are discussed: statutory obligations and powers of local governments, especially energy-related tasks, and finance. The p a p e r explains how specific features within these two areas may influence the motivation of local authorities to improve energy efficiency and their capacity to do so. It is argued that greater decentralization is the first step in a u g m e n t i n g the role of local authorities in the m a r k e t for energy
services and E E equipment. Based on the analysis r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s are provided on how to encourage municipal authorities to use m a r k e t m e c h a n i s m s more extensively to deliver energy efficiency.
06•01468
Release the power of the public purse
Borg, N. et al. Energy Policy, 2006, 34, (2), 238 250. This article presents the findings of a E u r o p e a n study on energy efficiency in the public sector, entitled 'Public p r o c u r e m e n t of Energy Saving Technologies in E u r o p e ' (PROST), c o m p l e t e d in 2003. E n e r g y efficiency in the public sector goes far beyond energy savings and climate protection. Energy efficiency must be seen as a strategy, which deals both with scarce public funds and with p r o f o u n d energy and climate challenges. The gains to be m a d e are substantial. The study assessed the p o t e n t i a l for energy and cost savings and the greenhouse gas reductions that are linked to energy efficiency in the E u r o p e a n public sector. To the knowledge of the authors, this is the first time such an analysis has been carried out. The study concluded that there are no f u n d a m e n t a l legal obstacles that would a priori disable the public sector from p r o c u r i n g energy efficient technologies or applying energy efficiency considerations in its daily building m a n a g e m e n t routines. However, at the level of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n obstacles can occur. It is therefore of p a r a m o u n t i m p o r t a n c e that there is sufficient political will and adequate incentive systems at all relevant levels. It appeared to be particularly effective when public procurement is energy-efficiency m i n d e d in all its operations and life cycle costing is applied for investments instead of conventional public budgeting procedures. The study demonstrates that consistent and EU-wide application of these principles and instruments can result in rather substantial savings b o t h in terms of energy and in terms of money. W i t h a d d i t i o n a l a n n u a l investments in energy efficiency of 80 million Euro, energy savings in the (EU15) M e m b e r States' public sector w o r t h up to 12 billion Euro per year can be achieved. A s u p p l e m e n t a r y analysis was performed for a selection of the new M e m b e r States, which indicated that the p o t e n t i a l for energy and fiscal savings is substantial in those countries as well.
06•01469 Review of the energy rating of dwellings in the European Union as a mechanism for sustainable energy Mfguez, J. L. et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2005, 10, (1), 24 45. R e d u c i n g emissions of CO2 and other G H G s is one of the biggest e n v i r o n m e n t a l challenges facing the E u r o p e a n U n i o n as it strives for sustainable development. If that challenge is to be met, domestic energy c o n s u m p t i o n must be controlled: it currently accounts for 40% of the total, m a k i n g it one of the biggest sources of emissions. E U Directives 93/76 and 2002/91 m a k e it compulsory for energy rating systems to be set up to r e p o r t on c o n s u m p t i o n in buildings. This p a p e r looks at the various rating systems now up and running, with varying levels of success, in E U countries. However, D e n m a r k ' s is the only system that can be considered as providing a full energy rating in the sense of awarding a graded score to buildings rather than a simple pass/ fail rating, and p r o p o s i n g ways of improving the score obtained. Indeed, many regulations on energy saving in the residential sector are extremely recent, and it is too soon to assess their results. In some States they may also be modified by reforms currently being studied or processed.
06•01470 The global socio-economic energetic metabolism as a sustainability problem Haberl, H. Energy, 2006, 31, (1), 87 99. This p a p e r discusses sustainability p r o b l e m s related to socio-economic energy flows based u p o n the societal m e t a b o l i s m approach. Contrary to conventional energy statistics that only include energy used in technical devices, this approach considers all kinds of energy flows related to h u m a n societies, including nutritional energy flows of h u m a n s and domesticated animals. Based upon h u m a n p o p u l a t i o n data and data on the pro capite energy m e t a b o l i s m of h u n t e r - g a t h e r e r s and agricultural societies as well as on statistical data on industrial energy flows a time series of the global socio-economic energetic m e t a b o l i s m for the last 106 years and a scenario for the next 50 years is derived. These estimates show that the total energy input of m a n k i n d has risen by several orders of m a g n i t u d e since the Neolithic revolution about 10,000 years ago. W h e r e a s the energy input of agricultural societies prior to the advent of industrial societies about 200 300 years ago did not exceed 5% of global terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), humanity's energy input currently amounts to about 30% of global terrestrial NPP and is likely to surpass 50% in a b o u t 2050. This shows that the sheer m a g n i t u d e of h u m a n - i n d u c e d flows is historically u n p r e c e d e n t e d and poses at least two closely interrelated sustainability challenges: (1) a reduction of energy available to ecosystem processes that can be assessed using the concept of ' h u m a n a p p r o p r i a t i o n of net primary productivity' and (2) the changes in the global carbon cycle resulting from land-use change and fossil-energy combustion.
Fuel and Energy Abstracts
May 2006
217
06•01465 How much market do market-based instruments create? An analysis for the case of 'white' certificates Langniss, O. and Praetorius, B. Energy Policy, 2006, 34, (2), 200 211. A m o n g the diverse economic instruments to foster energy efficiency ( E E ) and climate protection, tradable certificates have been investigated for renewable energy, and the E U directive on an emissionstrading scheme for CO2 certificates has been approved in 2003. In contrast, tradable energy efficiency or 'white' certificates have only lately been considered as a m a r k e t - b a s e d tool to foster E E as c o m p a r e d with standards and labelling, for example. Theoretically, there is little d o u b t about the advantages. In practice, however, some f u n d a m e n t a l p r o b l e m s arise. Critical issues are the design of an efficient artificial m a r k e t for white certificates, its compatibility with the E u r o p e a n emissions-trading system, the identification of a suitable target group for an E E obligation and the m e a s u r e m e n t of energy savings as c o m p a r e d with a reference use of energy. The authors use the theoretical framework of transaction cost economics to elaborate these issues and conclude that transaction costs and investment specificity will restrict m a r k e t s for white certificates in practice. L o n g - t e r m contracts rather than spot trade will be the prevailing form of governance for E E investments.
06•01466 Integrated assessment and energy analysis: quality assurance in multi-criteria analysis of sustainability Giampietro, M. et al. Energy, 2006, 31, (1), 59 86. Science for sustainability policy requires the h a n d l i n g of multid i m e n s i o n a l and multi-scale analyses. I n t e g r a t e d assessment is about g e n e r a t i n g information relevant for decision-making. This generates a divide between two scientific paradigms: (1) 'Post-Normal Science' acknowledges the unavoidable existence of non-equivalent perceptions and representations of the reality; legitimate but contrasting perspectives found a m o n g social actors; heavy levels of uncertainty. (2) ' N o r m a l Science', believes that it is possible to h a n d l e in a rigorous and rational way these challenges and that therefore it is possible to define in substantive terms 'the best course of action' for society. This p a p e r is written to explain the reasons and the tools developed by scientists working within the Post-Normal Science paradigm.
06•01467 Municipalities and energy efficiency in countries in transition. Review of factors that determine municipal involvement in the markets for energy services and energy efficient equipment, or how to augment the role of municipalities as market players Rezessy, S. et al. Energy Policy, 2006, 34, (2), 223 237. It is widely recognized that many cost-efficient opportunities to employ end-use energy efficiency measures exist in countries in transition (CITs) and that municipal authorities have an essential role to play in capturing these opportunities. The aim of this p a p e r is to review the factors that d e t e r m i n e the degree of involvement of local authorities in the m a r k e t for energy services and energy efficient (EE) e q u i p m e n t in three CITs: Bulgaria, H u n g a r y and the F o r m e r Yugoslav R e p u b l i c of M a c e d o n i a (hereafter: Macedonia). This is achieved examining the current status of local governments as the most powerful d e t e r m i n a n t of municipal m a r k e t involvement. Two broad groups of factors are discussed: statutory obligations and powers of local governments, especially energy-related tasks, and finance. The p a p e r explains how specific features within these two areas may influence the motivation of local authorities to improve energy efficiency and their capacity to do so. It is argued that greater decentralization is the first step in a u g m e n t i n g the role of local authorities in the m a r k e t for energy
services and E E equipment. Based on the analysis r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s are provided on how to encourage municipal authorities to use m a r k e t m e c h a n i s m s more extensively to deliver energy efficiency.
06•01468
Release the power of the public purse
Borg, N. et al. Energy Policy, 2006, 34, (2), 238 250. This article presents the findings of a E u r o p e a n study on energy efficiency in the public sector, entitled 'Public p r o c u r e m e n t of Energy Saving Technologies in E u r o p e ' (PROST), c o m p l e t e d in 2003. E n e r g y efficiency in the public sector goes far beyond energy savings and climate protection. Energy efficiency must be seen as a strategy, which deals both with scarce public funds and with p r o f o u n d energy and climate challenges. The gains to be m a d e are substantial. The study assessed the p o t e n t i a l for energy and cost savings and the greenhouse gas reductions that are linked to energy efficiency in the E u r o p e a n public sector. To the knowledge of the authors, this is the first time such an analysis has been carried out. The study concluded that there are no f u n d a m e n t a l legal obstacles that would a priori disable the public sector from p r o c u r i n g energy efficient technologies or applying energy efficiency considerations in its daily building m a n a g e m e n t routines. However, at the level of i m p l e m e n t a t i o n obstacles can occur. It is therefore of p a r a m o u n t i m p o r t a n c e that there is sufficient political will and adequate incentive systems at all relevant levels. It appeared to be particularly effective when public procurement is energy-efficiency m i n d e d in all its operations and life cycle costing is applied for investments instead of conventional public budgeting procedures. The study demonstrates that consistent and EU-wide application of these principles and instruments can result in rather substantial savings b o t h in terms of energy and in terms of money. W i t h a d d i t i o n a l a n n u a l investments in energy efficiency of 80 million Euro, energy savings in the (EU15) M e m b e r States' public sector w o r t h up to 12 billion Euro per year can be achieved. A s u p p l e m e n t a r y analysis was performed for a selection of the new M e m b e r States, which indicated that the p o t e n t i a l for energy and fiscal savings is substantial in those countries as well.
06•01469 Review of the energy rating of dwellings in the European Union as a mechanism for sustainable energy Mfguez, J. L. et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2005, 10, (1), 24 45. R e d u c i n g emissions of CO2 and other G H G s is one of the biggest e n v i r o n m e n t a l challenges facing the E u r o p e a n U n i o n as it strives for sustainable development. If that challenge is to be met, domestic energy c o n s u m p t i o n must be controlled: it currently accounts for 40% of the total, m a k i n g it one of the biggest sources of emissions. E U Directives 93/76 and 2002/91 m a k e it compulsory for energy rating systems to be set up to r e p o r t on c o n s u m p t i o n in buildings. This p a p e r looks at the various rating systems now up and running, with varying levels of success, in E U countries. However, D e n m a r k ' s is the only system that can be considered as providing a full energy rating in the sense of awarding a graded score to buildings rather than a simple pass/ fail rating, and p r o p o s i n g ways of improving the score obtained. Indeed, many regulations on energy saving in the residential sector are extremely recent, and it is too soon to assess their results. In some States they may also be modified by reforms currently being studied or processed.
06•01470 The global socio-economic energetic metabolism as a sustainability problem Haberl, H. Energy, 2006, 31, (1), 87 99. This p a p e r discusses sustainability p r o b l e m s related to socio-economic energy flows based u p o n the societal m e t a b o l i s m approach. Contrary to conventional energy statistics that only include energy used in technical devices, this approach considers all kinds of energy flows related to h u m a n societies, including nutritional energy flows of h u m a n s and domesticated animals. Based upon h u m a n p o p u l a t i o n data and data on the pro capite energy m e t a b o l i s m of h u n t e r - g a t h e r e r s and agricultural societies as well as on statistical data on industrial energy flows a time series of the global socio-economic energetic m e t a b o l i s m for the last 106 years and a scenario for the next 50 years is derived. These estimates show that the total energy input of m a n k i n d has risen by several orders of m a g n i t u d e since the Neolithic revolution about 10,000 years ago. W h e r e a s the energy input of agricultural societies prior to the advent of industrial societies about 200 300 years ago did not exceed 5% of global terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), humanity's energy input currently amounts to about 30% of global terrestrial NPP and is likely to surpass 50% in a b o u t 2050. This shows that the sheer m a g n i t u d e of h u m a n - i n d u c e d flows is historically u n p r e c e d e n t e d and poses at least two closely interrelated sustainability challenges: (1) a reduction of energy available to ecosystem processes that can be assessed using the concept of ' h u m a n a p p r o p r i a t i o n of net primary productivity' and (2) the changes in the global carbon cycle resulting from land-use change and fossil-energy combustion.
Fuel and Energy Abstracts
May 2006
217