- Email: [email protected]
2.2. Global atmospheric research programme (GARP)
2. NEWS FROM INTERNATIONAL 2.1. INTERNATIONAL
INSTITUTIONS
REFERENCE IONOSPHERE
AND ORGANIZATIONS
(1977)‘*’
by K. Rawer, S. Ramakcishnan and D. Bilitza, Weltraumforschung, Freiburg, FRG
Institut fiir Physikalische
This 60-page volume will be published by URSI in September 1977 and results from the work of a joint URSI-COSPAR Steering Committee under the Chairmanship of Professor K. Rawer. The volume will contain mathematical expressions permitting the compilation of profiles of various ionospheric characteristics and tables of numerical parameters for insertion in these expressions relating to selected geographical locations, seasons and times of day, and solar activity. Computer programmes in ALGOL and FORTRAN are also included. A profile can be obtained (a) as a set of independent functions each referring to a particular range of heights and based strictly on observational data; (b) as a single analytical function fitted for each individual profile, covering the whole range of heights. Orders for International Reference Ionosphere 1977 should be sent to: URSI Secretariat, Rue de Nieuwenhove 8 1, B - 1180 Brussels, Belgium. Price: US $3.50 (130,- Belgian francs), including surface postage. There is a supplementary charge of US $0.50 (20,- Belgian francs) for dispatch by air mail.
2.2. GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC
RESEARCH PROGRAMME
(GARPf3’
Thirteenth Session of the Joint Organizing Committee Stockholm, 14-20 April 1977 The Report of the Thirteenth Session of the Joint Organizing Committee (JOC) of GARP has now been published by the World Meteorological Organization. The main headings of this Report are: Report on JOC Activities The Global Experiment Implementation of the observing and data management systems Response by the JOC to requests made by the Inter-governmental Panel on the FGGE Oceanographic programmes in the tropics during the FGGE Research aspects of the FGGE “‘Extract
from URSI
Information
‘J)Extracl
I’rom IUGG
Chronicle
26
Bulletin No. 202, June 1977. No. 119, July 1977.
CARP Climate Dynamics Sub-Programme Goals Strategy Implementation and timing Overall schedule of activities during the preparatory phase Modelling Physical processes Climate diagnosis Other GARP Sub-Programmes The tropical sub-programme The monsoon sub-programme The polar sub-programme The GARP sub-programme on air-flow over and around mountains Air-sea interaction Organization of Future Work JOC Boards and Working Group Calendar of future meetings related to GARP CARP publications The joint planning staff and the CARP activities office The CARP implementation fund Date and place of the next session The Annexes include the following items: Report of the Fourteenth Session of the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation Summary of Commitments to the FGGE observing systems Response by the JOC to the Inter-governmental Panel’s request regarding the role of the FGGE for the first GARP objective Response by the JOC to the inter-governmental Panel’s request regarding the role of the FGGE for the second GARP objective Actions of SCOR and IOC with respect to the FGGE Summary of the status of observational activity in support of POLEX GARP implementation fund The Global Experiment As the observational period of the Experiment approaches, the details of its implementation and operation are becoming ever clearer. In Leningrad in November 1976, a meeting on ship allocation and utilization elicited tentative plans for ship operations in the tropics and the southern hemisphere. In Brackneli, December 1976, near final plans for data management were formulated. In Geneva in January 1977, contracts for procurement of internationally financed Navaid upper-air sounding systems were finalized. Also in Geneva, two significant meetings were held at the beginning of 1977: the JOC 27
Board For the FGGE and the WMO EC Inter-governmental Panel on the FGGE, which assessed the prospects for the Experiment as a whole. ~~~o~~ec~jo~. The JOC Board for the FGGE noted that the observational requirements for all but the tropical wind system had largely been met. However, resources were just barely sufficient to provide 700 km resolution in the equatorial tropics. It was therefore concluded that the Experiment as originally conceived was not possible. However, a scientifically rational global experiment was seen to be possible, although the lower resolution in the tropics would limit the time range of validity of extended prediction experiments. The Board emphasized, Finally, that a relatively modest increase in resources woufd restore this unique opportunity to conduct a global experiment Fully satisfying the central objectives of the FGGE. The FGGE Panel, taking into account the scientific assessment of the JOC and the improved status of commitments, agreed that a global atmos~herjc experiment can be conducted. The Panel resolved to make every effort to remove the remaining deficiencies in the observing system, and to make the most effective use of the resources available now and in the Future. The Panel also requested the JOC to make quantitative estimates of the impact of the presently projected level of resources and the scientific gains which might be expected From execution of the Experiment as originally planned. The Panel also solicited the JOC’s views on the value of the Experiment in the development of climate models. The present status of the Experiment as reviewed by the Panel may be summarized as follows: Timing of the Experiment In order to ensure the viability of all of the major elements, the Panel recommended a three-month delay of the Experiment. The Panel also approved the recommendations made by the JOC concerning the schedules of the Special Observing Periods and the Periods of Intensive observation. improvement of the Observational and Data Systems The Panel noted the Following improvements: Almost all of the 300 drifting buoys needed For the southern hemisphere have been firmly committed. Definite ship commitments are improved. The manufacturer of the Tropical Wind Observing Ships’ Navaid equipment has been selected and resources have been made available to carry out the development and equip ships. All geostationary satellites are on schedule and contingency plans exist for most. Equipment to obtain meteorological data from commercial aircraft via satellite (ASDAR) has been demonstrated and will be available in time for FGGE. 28
More commitments were obtained to establish new upper air stations identified as indispensable for the Experiment and to upgrade the observational programme of other stations. Commitments have been made or confirmed for almost all data centres within the Level 11-b data management scheme. Remaining Deficiencies The Panel noted some major deficiencies which still remain: the number of tropical wind observing ships committed is significantly less than required; some commitments for ships are only probable or tentative; more resources for additional Navaid units are needed; commitments to establish several critical upper air stations are still needed; one of the Omega navigation system stations may not be available in time for the Experiment; two data centres within the Level 11-b data flow are still to be committed; not all special observing systems will be available for the entire two months of the SOPS. The Composite Global Observing System World Weather Watch. The Panel viewed with concern the present state of implementation of the Global Observing System and the Global Telecommunications System. The Panel stressed that the full implementation of the GOS, GDPS and GTS is essential for the success of FGGE and that every effort must be made to achieve this objective. The basic WWW surface-based observations of the globe will be supplemented by five geostationary satellites and four polar-orbiting satellites. The geostationary satellites will provide coverage at all longitudes over the equatorial areas and substantial coverage over the mid-latitudes, and large amounts of wind data at several tropospheric levels. The polar-orbiting satellites will yield global coverage of cloud patterns and of temperature profiles. The Composite Observing System in the Equatorial Tropics. Numerical experiments have revealed that it is necessary to obtain detailed wind observations in the belt from about 10”N to 10”s. The composite system for this region consists of: (a) The World Weather Watch surface-based observing system. (b) Geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites. (c) Tropical Wind Observing Ships (TWOS) will take observations during the two SOPS. The Strategy for allocation of TWOS is to obtain first a homogeneous coverage over all oceanic areas with about 700 km horizontal resolution and to use additional ships to increase the resolution in the active regions to obtain a 500 km horizontal resolution everywhere in these areas.’ 29
(d) Dedicated aircraft releasing dropsondes. (e) Constant-level balloons floating at about 140 mb. (f) Commercial aircraft. The Composite Observing System in the Southern hemisphere. This system will consist of: (a) The World Weather Watch surface-based observing system. (b) Polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites. (c) Drifting buoys. (d) Commercial aircraft. Present commitments are sufficient to secure that these observing systems can be implemented, thus permitting a better determination of the structure and motion of the southern hemisphere than ever in the past. Data h4anagement. Commitments by many nations and institutions to carry out specific tasks in the complex data management plan are now sufficient to guarantee that the data from the Experiment will be coflected and analysed in detail. The regional programmes Regional Programmes during the FGGE. (MONEX, WAMEX and POLEX) are being further developed. These should be viable programmes in their own right, and will supplement the Global Experiment in their respective geographical regions. An impressive array of observational commitments has been made and the next steps in detailed planning are being carried out. Gceanographi~ Programmes. The Panel emphasized the importance of planning aimed at developing an oceanographic programme which contributes to both GARP objectives. A plan needs to be finalized before the second Planning Meeting of TWOS, which is to be held in October 1977. Research Aspects of the FGGE. The ultimate benefits of the FGGE will result from research based upon the data base obtained during the Experiment. Under the leadership of the JOC, a number of international activities have been initiated to foster and co-ordinate a productive research programme leading to greater understanding of global weather processes and improved capabilities to predict their course. The JOC FGGE Research Co-ordination Conference scheduled for April 1977 will produce a preliminary inventory and assessment of research plans throughout the world. Other efforts are planned by the JOC for the years preceding and following the FGCE. GARP Climate Dynamics Sub-Programme The JOC Board for this element of GARP met in Stockholm in December 1976 to develop a scientific plan for the conduct of the effort. The Board reviewed the past development of work directed toward the Second Objective, beginning with the Study Conference on the Physical Basis of Climate and Climate Modelling held in Stockholm in 1974. Activity within GARP was seen as an indispensable foundation for the broader WMO Integrated International 30
Effort in climate change initiated by the Executive Committee. In view of the impacts of climate variations on all time scales on the human environment, and particularly on world food production, the Board recognized that the primary practical requirement was the ability to predict. However, the knowledge and theory upon which a validated predictive capability might be based do not now exist, and there are indeed fundamental limitations on the skill and scope of prediction on climatic time scales. U~jeci~v~. The immediate goals of GARP with regard to climate were therefore stated as follows: to determine diagnostically the observed climate and its variation on space scales from regional to global, and time scales from about a month to the order of decades; to provide the means for estimating the regional to global climatic response to prescribed changes induced by natural events or human activities; to assess the feasibility of estimating future variations of climate on regional scales in space and time scales from a month to decades. Strategy. These goals will be pursued through a balanced search for fundamental knowledge in the specific areas relevant to the understanding of climate, development of a theory of climate, and leading to a capability to model and predict climate. In this preparatory phase, the knowledge and capabilities needed for a major international research programme will be developed through the efforts of working groups, consultants, experts, rapporteurs and conferences. These efforts will be periodically assessed by the JOC Board and the JOC with a view to establishing a basis for an international planning conference near the end of this decade. The task of this conference would be to plan the implementation of a sharply focused programme directed towards the goals stated above. The Tropical Sub-Prog~mme
GATE .&?a Processing. GATE data processing is nearing its end, and a number of Sub-programme Data Centres are expected to complete their tasks and phase out in the near future. lKM0 Conference on the Energetic-sof the Tropical Atmosphere. As the observational results of GATE are becoming increasingly available, research in tropical processes gains momentum. The Hydrometeorological Service of the USSR formulated a proposal for a conference on the energetics of the tropical atmosphere which was endorsed by the Tropical Experiment Board and approved by the WMO Executive Committee. The Conference will be held in Tashkent from 14 to 21 September 1977. It is expected that about 50 visiting scientists will join with a roughly equal number of their Soviet colleagues to discuss a number of questions in tropical dynamics. An International Organiz~C~~~~~e. 31
The GARP Monsoon Sub-Programme
The Monsoon Sub-programme of GARP has three components: Monsoon-77, the Asian Monsoon Experiment (MONEX) and the West African Monsoon Experiment (WAMEX). Considerable progress has been realized in the implementation of Monsoon-77 and in the planning of MONEX and WAMEX. Readers may refer to the GARP Publications Series, No. 18, The Monsoon Experiment, for the basic scientific and observational plans for MONEX, and to the Draft Scientific and Observational Proposal for WAMEX available from the GARP Activities Office (GAO) of the WMO, for background on the objecttves and scope of WAMEX. The purpose of this article is to summarize the results of the first planning meeting on WAMEX held in Dakar, Senegal, from 29 November to 2 December 1976 and the third planning meeting on MONEX held in New Delhi, India, 28 February to 4 March 1977 and to inform the GARP community of future plans for the experiments within the Monsoon Sub-programme. Monsoon- 77 Status reports by the principal participating nations were given at the third planning meeting on MONEX. The meeting emphasized that since the Monsoon-77 experiment is a forerunner of MONEX it is imperative that the experience gained in operations, data processing and research should be reflected in the planning for MONEX. In addition to the special effort to take data in the land-based WWW network by the countries of the Asian monsoon region, the following special observational programmes are planned: India: Two ships will make upper-air surface observations in the Arabian Sea (May-June 1977) and Bay of Bengal (July-August 1977). Special new upper air stations will be implemented for Monsoon-77 from two island stations and three stations along the coast in the monsoon depression track. In addition, an increased frequency of upper air observations will be implemented at sixteen WWW network stations. A ship-shore telecommunications station is being set up. Plans to maximize commercial ship and aircraft observations during the period of the Monsoon-77 programme are being implemented and b&weekly rocket soundings from Thumba are to be carried out. USSR: Five ships will participate in the summer Monsoon-77 programme in the Arabian Sea. This represents an additional contribution of one ship over previous planning and will allow oceanographic investigations to be carried out in the area of the Somali current and in the region of cold upwelling near Socotra Island. This area is of particular importance because of the interaction between the ocean and the low level jet stream over the Arabian Sea. Four of the ships will then participate in the Bay of Bengal Studies. The Planning meeting on the Monsoon-77 experiment held in Sri Lanka in May 1976 recommended that a winter component to Monsoon-77 experiment be implemented. In response to this the USSR has announced plans to provide 32
one ship for two observational periods of 2-3 weeks duration each in December 1977 and January 1978. The ship will be positioned on the equator near 106’30 East. USA: During June 1977 the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) aircraft (Electra) will be used by five scientists to study the southerly low-level jet along the Kenyan coast. This project will complement the SovietIndian ship observational programme in the Arabian Sea. Also during June 1977 there will be a joint programme between Florida State University and the Meteorological Service on Somalia to observe the winds between the surface and 4 km altitude. Somalia will carry out twice daily radiosonde/rawinsonde measurements from Mogadiscio (63260) and Gardo (63225). FSU will undertake double theodolite upper wind measurements from Alula (63200). Hargeisa (63170) and Obbla (63235). A temporary meteorological scientific support base will be estabhshed by the University of Miami in conjunction with the East Africa Marine Fisheries Research Organization at Mombasa. The base will serve as a logistics and technical support station for the observational phases of the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDEX) and MONEX as well as Monsoon-77. MONEX The third planning meeting on MONEX concentrated on refining the scientific and observational objectives of the project, evaluating the potential contributions of the participating countries, and developing an organizational plan for management of the experiment. The following major items were decided at the meeting. Scientific and Observational Plans. The plans for the winter monsoon component of MONEX now include an observational programme for December 1978 over the South China Sea in order to study the cold monsoon surges over that area. In addition, the meeting took action to ensure that a network of surface radiation observations and radiometersonde stations is implemented. The meeting also took steps to develop a co-ordinated set of boundary layer observations. Of significance was the announcement that during MONEX the French are planning to carry out a low-level constant levei balloon programme over the Arabian Sea. Commitments to MO/VEX. The participating nations have responded enthusiastically to the Secretary-General’s call for commitments to the Programme. While it is impossible to enumerate ah the contributions in detail, the following summarizes the plans to date: Ships: 5 ships for the summer MONEX and 1 ship for the winter MONEX have been committed (several. FGGE TWOS ships also contribute to the MONEX network). Several more ships have been mentioned as possible but with no commitment to date. 33
Aircraft: 5 research aircraft have been tentativeiy committed. The FGGE dropwindsonde aircraft are also significant elements of both the summer and winter MONEX plan. World Weather Watch: 18 countries in the region have plans to upgrade their World Weather Watch programmes for the period of the experiment. Special Upper Air Observation Stations: To date 10 stations have been planned by several participating nations, with additional stations under consideration. Networks of precipitation, radiation and radar observations are being planned by 12, 12 and 14 nations respectively. Satellite data products from the USSR and Japan geosynchronous satellites are being pianned. Evaluation o~c~mmitments. The meeting noted with concern that there are still many gaps in the observation programme. Of particular note was the recommendation by the meeting for the implementation of 5 additional upperair stations during the winter MONEX and 7 upper-air stations during the summer MONEX. Some flexibility would be gained by the provision of portable upper-air systems, a possible commitment to the experiment. In addition to the high priority of obtaining ship commitments for the FGGE TWOS network in the MONEX region, the meeting noted the need for additional ships for the December winter MONEX in the South China Sea, and the need for at least one ship in the Bay of Bengal during the whole summer MONEX. r~tern~ti~na~ Scie~t~~~cand management ~r~un~z~ti~n and Schedule. Two international Management Centres to be set up for MONEX. The Management Centre for the Winter experiment has been tentatively planned for Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. India has formally announced its commitment to host the Management Centre for the Summer experiment at New Delhi. Dr. P.K. Das will be the International Director of the Centre. The staff for these Centres will be provided by the participating countries. The immediate tasks for the Centres will be to develop the detailed operational plans to create an international data management plan. In addition, the Centres will be responsible for the development of, and the continuous monitoring of internationally agreed implementation schedules. Close ho-ordination with the national programmes, and with the Global Experiment through the GAO will be necessary. The schedule for MONEX includes the organization of the Management Centres by July 1977; the final commitments to the experiment are to be known by January 1978, and the series of Operational and Data Management Plans ready by July 1978. Field operations being in December 1978 for the winter monsoon component and in May 1979 for the summer monsoon component of MONEX. Future Activities. The fourth planning meeting for MONEX has been scheduled for December 1977. The exact location and dates are not yet firm. The major agenda items will be the study of the initial planning activities at the 34
two MONEX Centres and detailed implementation plan.
of the developing MONEX
Wamex Plans for the development of a West African Monsoon Experiment within the context of the GARP Monsoon Sub-programme have been progressing since the idea was first recorded during the second session of the WMO Executive Committee Inter-governmental Panel on FGGE in 1975. Dr. George Dhonneur assisted by Dr. D. Adefolalu and members of the WMO Secretariat staff have developed a Draft Scientific and Observational Proposal for a West African Monsoon Experiment. This plan has been accepted by the WMO Executive Committee Inter-governmental Panel on FGGE, the Joint Organizing Committee, and the first planning meeting on WAMEX, where 15 nations participated. Finally, efforts in the Spring of 1977 to develop a detailed proposal for WAMEX Data Management have been completed. commitments to the Programme. The first planning meeting for WAMEX provided the initial opportunity for countries to offer preliminary commitments to the programme. The following summarizes the commitments to date: Ships: 5 participating countries plan to provide ships jointly to WAMEX and to the FGGE Tropical Wind Observing Programme. World Weather Watch (WWW): 13 countries have committed to improve and expand their WWW programmes. Special Upper Air Stations: At least 9 new upper air stations will be specially implemented for WAMEX. Two of these are portable systems with locations not yet determined. The WAMEX countries are currently reviewing their national programmes and additional commitments of precipitation network data, radar data and radiation data are expected at the second planning meeting. International Scientific and Management Organization and Schedule. The WAMEX Scientific and Management Regional Committee is being formed which will plan the central role in the organi~tion and implementation of WAMEX. The Committee will form Special Working Groups of experts to develop the scientific, operational and data management plans for the experiment. It is conceived that during the field phase of the experiment an Operational Control and Analysis Centre will be organized at a central location in the experiment area. This Centre will develop quick look analysis and a WAMEX Preliminary Data Set as well as provide the operational control and monitoring of the experiment. A WAMEX Data Management system employing a co-ordinated programme at three Data Management Centres has been proposed to assemble the WAMEX Final Data Set which will include data from FGGE as well as the special WAMEX data. A Working Group of experts has prepared a proposal for WAMEX Data Management which is being sent to the participating nations and will be considered at the next planning meeting. 35
FutureActivities. A second planning meeting on WAMEX has been scheduled for the summer of 1977. Special topics at this meeting will be the proposed data management plan and the updating of the national commitments to the experiment. Special emphasis will be placed on the location, schedule and tasks to be carried out by the WAMEX Operational Control Centre and Centres of the WAMEX Data Management System. The Draft Scientific and Observational Proposal for WAMEX is being prepared for publication with further input by the organizing scientists and will be published by the GAO in the GARP Publication Series during 1977.
23. EUROPEAN CANDIDATES PRESELECTED FOR FIRST SPACELAB MISSIONH’
Fifty-three European candidates from twelve countries have been preselected for the first mission in 1980 of Spacelab, the reusable space laboratory being built for the European Space Agency by nearly 40 firms in ten European countrieso) to be carried into Earth orbit by NASA’s Space Shuttle. Only one of these 53 European experiment speciahsts will finally be selected to work with one American in Spacelab during the first mission of one week scheduled for the second half of 1980. From the 49 candidates pre-selected by their respective countries and the four by ESA from staff candidates, six will be selected by the Agency at the end of 1977 after a series of interviews and tests (medical, psychological and others designed to simulate conditions particular to space travel) starting in Paris on 6 September. These six candidates will undergo further tests and evaluation by NASA as well as ESA between January and the end of April 1978. There will be Spacelab familiarization and training at the DFVLR facilities at Porz-Wahn, FRG, where ESA’s SPICE team (Spacelab Payload Integration and Co-ordination in Europe) is located; at ESTEC, Noordwijk, Netherlands, and at the Bremen premises of the Spacelab prime contractor, VFW-Fokker/ERNO. During this period, the six candidates will also make at least one visit to Houston, USA, which will include further medical tests. Before the middle of 1978, three of these six candidates will be appointed to the staff of ESA as European experiment specialists to undergo training for the first Spacelab mission. Several months before the first mission, one of them will be chosen to become the first West European to travel and work in earth orbit. The two others will act as back-up specialists for the first mission and will participate in ground-based mission activities. t4)ESA News Release of 2 September 1977. ts)Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, FRG, Kingdom.
36
Italy.
Netherlands,
Spain,
Switzerland,
United
INSTITUTIONS
REFERENCE IONOSPHERE
AND ORGANIZATIONS
(1977)‘*’
by K. Rawer, S. Ramakcishnan and D. Bilitza, Weltraumforschung, Freiburg, FRG
Institut fiir Physikalische
This 60-page volume will be published by URSI in September 1977 and results from the work of a joint URSI-COSPAR Steering Committee under the Chairmanship of Professor K. Rawer. The volume will contain mathematical expressions permitting the compilation of profiles of various ionospheric characteristics and tables of numerical parameters for insertion in these expressions relating to selected geographical locations, seasons and times of day, and solar activity. Computer programmes in ALGOL and FORTRAN are also included. A profile can be obtained (a) as a set of independent functions each referring to a particular range of heights and based strictly on observational data; (b) as a single analytical function fitted for each individual profile, covering the whole range of heights. Orders for International Reference Ionosphere 1977 should be sent to: URSI Secretariat, Rue de Nieuwenhove 8 1, B - 1180 Brussels, Belgium. Price: US $3.50 (130,- Belgian francs), including surface postage. There is a supplementary charge of US $0.50 (20,- Belgian francs) for dispatch by air mail.
2.2. GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC
RESEARCH PROGRAMME
(GARPf3’
Thirteenth Session of the Joint Organizing Committee Stockholm, 14-20 April 1977 The Report of the Thirteenth Session of the Joint Organizing Committee (JOC) of GARP has now been published by the World Meteorological Organization. The main headings of this Report are: Report on JOC Activities The Global Experiment Implementation of the observing and data management systems Response by the JOC to requests made by the Inter-governmental Panel on the FGGE Oceanographic programmes in the tropics during the FGGE Research aspects of the FGGE “‘Extract
from URSI
Information
‘J)Extracl
I’rom IUGG
Chronicle
26
Bulletin No. 202, June 1977. No. 119, July 1977.
CARP Climate Dynamics Sub-Programme Goals Strategy Implementation and timing Overall schedule of activities during the preparatory phase Modelling Physical processes Climate diagnosis Other GARP Sub-Programmes The tropical sub-programme The monsoon sub-programme The polar sub-programme The GARP sub-programme on air-flow over and around mountains Air-sea interaction Organization of Future Work JOC Boards and Working Group Calendar of future meetings related to GARP CARP publications The joint planning staff and the CARP activities office The CARP implementation fund Date and place of the next session The Annexes include the following items: Report of the Fourteenth Session of the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation Summary of Commitments to the FGGE observing systems Response by the JOC to the Inter-governmental Panel’s request regarding the role of the FGGE for the first GARP objective Response by the JOC to the inter-governmental Panel’s request regarding the role of the FGGE for the second GARP objective Actions of SCOR and IOC with respect to the FGGE Summary of the status of observational activity in support of POLEX GARP implementation fund The Global Experiment As the observational period of the Experiment approaches, the details of its implementation and operation are becoming ever clearer. In Leningrad in November 1976, a meeting on ship allocation and utilization elicited tentative plans for ship operations in the tropics and the southern hemisphere. In Brackneli, December 1976, near final plans for data management were formulated. In Geneva in January 1977, contracts for procurement of internationally financed Navaid upper-air sounding systems were finalized. Also in Geneva, two significant meetings were held at the beginning of 1977: the JOC 27
Board For the FGGE and the WMO EC Inter-governmental Panel on the FGGE, which assessed the prospects for the Experiment as a whole. ~~~o~~ec~jo~. The JOC Board for the FGGE noted that the observational requirements for all but the tropical wind system had largely been met. However, resources were just barely sufficient to provide 700 km resolution in the equatorial tropics. It was therefore concluded that the Experiment as originally conceived was not possible. However, a scientifically rational global experiment was seen to be possible, although the lower resolution in the tropics would limit the time range of validity of extended prediction experiments. The Board emphasized, Finally, that a relatively modest increase in resources woufd restore this unique opportunity to conduct a global experiment Fully satisfying the central objectives of the FGGE. The FGGE Panel, taking into account the scientific assessment of the JOC and the improved status of commitments, agreed that a global atmos~herjc experiment can be conducted. The Panel resolved to make every effort to remove the remaining deficiencies in the observing system, and to make the most effective use of the resources available now and in the Future. The Panel also requested the JOC to make quantitative estimates of the impact of the presently projected level of resources and the scientific gains which might be expected From execution of the Experiment as originally planned. The Panel also solicited the JOC’s views on the value of the Experiment in the development of climate models. The present status of the Experiment as reviewed by the Panel may be summarized as follows: Timing of the Experiment In order to ensure the viability of all of the major elements, the Panel recommended a three-month delay of the Experiment. The Panel also approved the recommendations made by the JOC concerning the schedules of the Special Observing Periods and the Periods of Intensive observation. improvement of the Observational and Data Systems The Panel noted the Following improvements: Almost all of the 300 drifting buoys needed For the southern hemisphere have been firmly committed. Definite ship commitments are improved. The manufacturer of the Tropical Wind Observing Ships’ Navaid equipment has been selected and resources have been made available to carry out the development and equip ships. All geostationary satellites are on schedule and contingency plans exist for most. Equipment to obtain meteorological data from commercial aircraft via satellite (ASDAR) has been demonstrated and will be available in time for FGGE. 28
More commitments were obtained to establish new upper air stations identified as indispensable for the Experiment and to upgrade the observational programme of other stations. Commitments have been made or confirmed for almost all data centres within the Level 11-b data management scheme. Remaining Deficiencies The Panel noted some major deficiencies which still remain: the number of tropical wind observing ships committed is significantly less than required; some commitments for ships are only probable or tentative; more resources for additional Navaid units are needed; commitments to establish several critical upper air stations are still needed; one of the Omega navigation system stations may not be available in time for the Experiment; two data centres within the Level 11-b data flow are still to be committed; not all special observing systems will be available for the entire two months of the SOPS. The Composite Global Observing System World Weather Watch. The Panel viewed with concern the present state of implementation of the Global Observing System and the Global Telecommunications System. The Panel stressed that the full implementation of the GOS, GDPS and GTS is essential for the success of FGGE and that every effort must be made to achieve this objective. The basic WWW surface-based observations of the globe will be supplemented by five geostationary satellites and four polar-orbiting satellites. The geostationary satellites will provide coverage at all longitudes over the equatorial areas and substantial coverage over the mid-latitudes, and large amounts of wind data at several tropospheric levels. The polar-orbiting satellites will yield global coverage of cloud patterns and of temperature profiles. The Composite Observing System in the Equatorial Tropics. Numerical experiments have revealed that it is necessary to obtain detailed wind observations in the belt from about 10”N to 10”s. The composite system for this region consists of: (a) The World Weather Watch surface-based observing system. (b) Geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites. (c) Tropical Wind Observing Ships (TWOS) will take observations during the two SOPS. The Strategy for allocation of TWOS is to obtain first a homogeneous coverage over all oceanic areas with about 700 km horizontal resolution and to use additional ships to increase the resolution in the active regions to obtain a 500 km horizontal resolution everywhere in these areas.’ 29
(d) Dedicated aircraft releasing dropsondes. (e) Constant-level balloons floating at about 140 mb. (f) Commercial aircraft. The Composite Observing System in the Southern hemisphere. This system will consist of: (a) The World Weather Watch surface-based observing system. (b) Polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites. (c) Drifting buoys. (d) Commercial aircraft. Present commitments are sufficient to secure that these observing systems can be implemented, thus permitting a better determination of the structure and motion of the southern hemisphere than ever in the past. Data h4anagement. Commitments by many nations and institutions to carry out specific tasks in the complex data management plan are now sufficient to guarantee that the data from the Experiment will be coflected and analysed in detail. The regional programmes Regional Programmes during the FGGE. (MONEX, WAMEX and POLEX) are being further developed. These should be viable programmes in their own right, and will supplement the Global Experiment in their respective geographical regions. An impressive array of observational commitments has been made and the next steps in detailed planning are being carried out. Gceanographi~ Programmes. The Panel emphasized the importance of planning aimed at developing an oceanographic programme which contributes to both GARP objectives. A plan needs to be finalized before the second Planning Meeting of TWOS, which is to be held in October 1977. Research Aspects of the FGGE. The ultimate benefits of the FGGE will result from research based upon the data base obtained during the Experiment. Under the leadership of the JOC, a number of international activities have been initiated to foster and co-ordinate a productive research programme leading to greater understanding of global weather processes and improved capabilities to predict their course. The JOC FGGE Research Co-ordination Conference scheduled for April 1977 will produce a preliminary inventory and assessment of research plans throughout the world. Other efforts are planned by the JOC for the years preceding and following the FGCE. GARP Climate Dynamics Sub-Programme The JOC Board for this element of GARP met in Stockholm in December 1976 to develop a scientific plan for the conduct of the effort. The Board reviewed the past development of work directed toward the Second Objective, beginning with the Study Conference on the Physical Basis of Climate and Climate Modelling held in Stockholm in 1974. Activity within GARP was seen as an indispensable foundation for the broader WMO Integrated International 30
Effort in climate change initiated by the Executive Committee. In view of the impacts of climate variations on all time scales on the human environment, and particularly on world food production, the Board recognized that the primary practical requirement was the ability to predict. However, the knowledge and theory upon which a validated predictive capability might be based do not now exist, and there are indeed fundamental limitations on the skill and scope of prediction on climatic time scales. U~jeci~v~. The immediate goals of GARP with regard to climate were therefore stated as follows: to determine diagnostically the observed climate and its variation on space scales from regional to global, and time scales from about a month to the order of decades; to provide the means for estimating the regional to global climatic response to prescribed changes induced by natural events or human activities; to assess the feasibility of estimating future variations of climate on regional scales in space and time scales from a month to decades. Strategy. These goals will be pursued through a balanced search for fundamental knowledge in the specific areas relevant to the understanding of climate, development of a theory of climate, and leading to a capability to model and predict climate. In this preparatory phase, the knowledge and capabilities needed for a major international research programme will be developed through the efforts of working groups, consultants, experts, rapporteurs and conferences. These efforts will be periodically assessed by the JOC Board and the JOC with a view to establishing a basis for an international planning conference near the end of this decade. The task of this conference would be to plan the implementation of a sharply focused programme directed towards the goals stated above. The Tropical Sub-Prog~mme
GATE .&?a Processing. GATE data processing is nearing its end, and a number of Sub-programme Data Centres are expected to complete their tasks and phase out in the near future. lKM0 Conference on the Energetic-sof the Tropical Atmosphere. As the observational results of GATE are becoming increasingly available, research in tropical processes gains momentum. The Hydrometeorological Service of the USSR formulated a proposal for a conference on the energetics of the tropical atmosphere which was endorsed by the Tropical Experiment Board and approved by the WMO Executive Committee. The Conference will be held in Tashkent from 14 to 21 September 1977. It is expected that about 50 visiting scientists will join with a roughly equal number of their Soviet colleagues to discuss a number of questions in tropical dynamics. An International Organiz~C~~~~~e. 31
The GARP Monsoon Sub-Programme
The Monsoon Sub-programme of GARP has three components: Monsoon-77, the Asian Monsoon Experiment (MONEX) and the West African Monsoon Experiment (WAMEX). Considerable progress has been realized in the implementation of Monsoon-77 and in the planning of MONEX and WAMEX. Readers may refer to the GARP Publications Series, No. 18, The Monsoon Experiment, for the basic scientific and observational plans for MONEX, and to the Draft Scientific and Observational Proposal for WAMEX available from the GARP Activities Office (GAO) of the WMO, for background on the objecttves and scope of WAMEX. The purpose of this article is to summarize the results of the first planning meeting on WAMEX held in Dakar, Senegal, from 29 November to 2 December 1976 and the third planning meeting on MONEX held in New Delhi, India, 28 February to 4 March 1977 and to inform the GARP community of future plans for the experiments within the Monsoon Sub-programme. Monsoon- 77 Status reports by the principal participating nations were given at the third planning meeting on MONEX. The meeting emphasized that since the Monsoon-77 experiment is a forerunner of MONEX it is imperative that the experience gained in operations, data processing and research should be reflected in the planning for MONEX. In addition to the special effort to take data in the land-based WWW network by the countries of the Asian monsoon region, the following special observational programmes are planned: India: Two ships will make upper-air surface observations in the Arabian Sea (May-June 1977) and Bay of Bengal (July-August 1977). Special new upper air stations will be implemented for Monsoon-77 from two island stations and three stations along the coast in the monsoon depression track. In addition, an increased frequency of upper air observations will be implemented at sixteen WWW network stations. A ship-shore telecommunications station is being set up. Plans to maximize commercial ship and aircraft observations during the period of the Monsoon-77 programme are being implemented and b&weekly rocket soundings from Thumba are to be carried out. USSR: Five ships will participate in the summer Monsoon-77 programme in the Arabian Sea. This represents an additional contribution of one ship over previous planning and will allow oceanographic investigations to be carried out in the area of the Somali current and in the region of cold upwelling near Socotra Island. This area is of particular importance because of the interaction between the ocean and the low level jet stream over the Arabian Sea. Four of the ships will then participate in the Bay of Bengal Studies. The Planning meeting on the Monsoon-77 experiment held in Sri Lanka in May 1976 recommended that a winter component to Monsoon-77 experiment be implemented. In response to this the USSR has announced plans to provide 32
one ship for two observational periods of 2-3 weeks duration each in December 1977 and January 1978. The ship will be positioned on the equator near 106’30 East. USA: During June 1977 the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) aircraft (Electra) will be used by five scientists to study the southerly low-level jet along the Kenyan coast. This project will complement the SovietIndian ship observational programme in the Arabian Sea. Also during June 1977 there will be a joint programme between Florida State University and the Meteorological Service on Somalia to observe the winds between the surface and 4 km altitude. Somalia will carry out twice daily radiosonde/rawinsonde measurements from Mogadiscio (63260) and Gardo (63225). FSU will undertake double theodolite upper wind measurements from Alula (63200). Hargeisa (63170) and Obbla (63235). A temporary meteorological scientific support base will be estabhshed by the University of Miami in conjunction with the East Africa Marine Fisheries Research Organization at Mombasa. The base will serve as a logistics and technical support station for the observational phases of the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDEX) and MONEX as well as Monsoon-77. MONEX The third planning meeting on MONEX concentrated on refining the scientific and observational objectives of the project, evaluating the potential contributions of the participating countries, and developing an organizational plan for management of the experiment. The following major items were decided at the meeting. Scientific and Observational Plans. The plans for the winter monsoon component of MONEX now include an observational programme for December 1978 over the South China Sea in order to study the cold monsoon surges over that area. In addition, the meeting took action to ensure that a network of surface radiation observations and radiometersonde stations is implemented. The meeting also took steps to develop a co-ordinated set of boundary layer observations. Of significance was the announcement that during MONEX the French are planning to carry out a low-level constant levei balloon programme over the Arabian Sea. Commitments to MO/VEX. The participating nations have responded enthusiastically to the Secretary-General’s call for commitments to the Programme. While it is impossible to enumerate ah the contributions in detail, the following summarizes the plans to date: Ships: 5 ships for the summer MONEX and 1 ship for the winter MONEX have been committed (several. FGGE TWOS ships also contribute to the MONEX network). Several more ships have been mentioned as possible but with no commitment to date. 33
Aircraft: 5 research aircraft have been tentativeiy committed. The FGGE dropwindsonde aircraft are also significant elements of both the summer and winter MONEX plan. World Weather Watch: 18 countries in the region have plans to upgrade their World Weather Watch programmes for the period of the experiment. Special Upper Air Observation Stations: To date 10 stations have been planned by several participating nations, with additional stations under consideration. Networks of precipitation, radiation and radar observations are being planned by 12, 12 and 14 nations respectively. Satellite data products from the USSR and Japan geosynchronous satellites are being pianned. Evaluation o~c~mmitments. The meeting noted with concern that there are still many gaps in the observation programme. Of particular note was the recommendation by the meeting for the implementation of 5 additional upperair stations during the winter MONEX and 7 upper-air stations during the summer MONEX. Some flexibility would be gained by the provision of portable upper-air systems, a possible commitment to the experiment. In addition to the high priority of obtaining ship commitments for the FGGE TWOS network in the MONEX region, the meeting noted the need for additional ships for the December winter MONEX in the South China Sea, and the need for at least one ship in the Bay of Bengal during the whole summer MONEX. r~tern~ti~na~ Scie~t~~~cand management ~r~un~z~ti~n and Schedule. Two international Management Centres to be set up for MONEX. The Management Centre for the Winter experiment has been tentatively planned for Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. India has formally announced its commitment to host the Management Centre for the Summer experiment at New Delhi. Dr. P.K. Das will be the International Director of the Centre. The staff for these Centres will be provided by the participating countries. The immediate tasks for the Centres will be to develop the detailed operational plans to create an international data management plan. In addition, the Centres will be responsible for the development of, and the continuous monitoring of internationally agreed implementation schedules. Close ho-ordination with the national programmes, and with the Global Experiment through the GAO will be necessary. The schedule for MONEX includes the organization of the Management Centres by July 1977; the final commitments to the experiment are to be known by January 1978, and the series of Operational and Data Management Plans ready by July 1978. Field operations being in December 1978 for the winter monsoon component and in May 1979 for the summer monsoon component of MONEX. Future Activities. The fourth planning meeting for MONEX has been scheduled for December 1977. The exact location and dates are not yet firm. The major agenda items will be the study of the initial planning activities at the 34
two MONEX Centres and detailed implementation plan.
of the developing MONEX
Wamex Plans for the development of a West African Monsoon Experiment within the context of the GARP Monsoon Sub-programme have been progressing since the idea was first recorded during the second session of the WMO Executive Committee Inter-governmental Panel on FGGE in 1975. Dr. George Dhonneur assisted by Dr. D. Adefolalu and members of the WMO Secretariat staff have developed a Draft Scientific and Observational Proposal for a West African Monsoon Experiment. This plan has been accepted by the WMO Executive Committee Inter-governmental Panel on FGGE, the Joint Organizing Committee, and the first planning meeting on WAMEX, where 15 nations participated. Finally, efforts in the Spring of 1977 to develop a detailed proposal for WAMEX Data Management have been completed. commitments to the Programme. The first planning meeting for WAMEX provided the initial opportunity for countries to offer preliminary commitments to the programme. The following summarizes the commitments to date: Ships: 5 participating countries plan to provide ships jointly to WAMEX and to the FGGE Tropical Wind Observing Programme. World Weather Watch (WWW): 13 countries have committed to improve and expand their WWW programmes. Special Upper Air Stations: At least 9 new upper air stations will be specially implemented for WAMEX. Two of these are portable systems with locations not yet determined. The WAMEX countries are currently reviewing their national programmes and additional commitments of precipitation network data, radar data and radiation data are expected at the second planning meeting. International Scientific and Management Organization and Schedule. The WAMEX Scientific and Management Regional Committee is being formed which will plan the central role in the organi~tion and implementation of WAMEX. The Committee will form Special Working Groups of experts to develop the scientific, operational and data management plans for the experiment. It is conceived that during the field phase of the experiment an Operational Control and Analysis Centre will be organized at a central location in the experiment area. This Centre will develop quick look analysis and a WAMEX Preliminary Data Set as well as provide the operational control and monitoring of the experiment. A WAMEX Data Management system employing a co-ordinated programme at three Data Management Centres has been proposed to assemble the WAMEX Final Data Set which will include data from FGGE as well as the special WAMEX data. A Working Group of experts has prepared a proposal for WAMEX Data Management which is being sent to the participating nations and will be considered at the next planning meeting. 35
FutureActivities. A second planning meeting on WAMEX has been scheduled for the summer of 1977. Special topics at this meeting will be the proposed data management plan and the updating of the national commitments to the experiment. Special emphasis will be placed on the location, schedule and tasks to be carried out by the WAMEX Operational Control Centre and Centres of the WAMEX Data Management System. The Draft Scientific and Observational Proposal for WAMEX is being prepared for publication with further input by the organizing scientists and will be published by the GAO in the GARP Publication Series during 1977.
23. EUROPEAN CANDIDATES PRESELECTED FOR FIRST SPACELAB MISSIONH’
Fifty-three European candidates from twelve countries have been preselected for the first mission in 1980 of Spacelab, the reusable space laboratory being built for the European Space Agency by nearly 40 firms in ten European countrieso) to be carried into Earth orbit by NASA’s Space Shuttle. Only one of these 53 European experiment speciahsts will finally be selected to work with one American in Spacelab during the first mission of one week scheduled for the second half of 1980. From the 49 candidates pre-selected by their respective countries and the four by ESA from staff candidates, six will be selected by the Agency at the end of 1977 after a series of interviews and tests (medical, psychological and others designed to simulate conditions particular to space travel) starting in Paris on 6 September. These six candidates will undergo further tests and evaluation by NASA as well as ESA between January and the end of April 1978. There will be Spacelab familiarization and training at the DFVLR facilities at Porz-Wahn, FRG, where ESA’s SPICE team (Spacelab Payload Integration and Co-ordination in Europe) is located; at ESTEC, Noordwijk, Netherlands, and at the Bremen premises of the Spacelab prime contractor, VFW-Fokker/ERNO. During this period, the six candidates will also make at least one visit to Houston, USA, which will include further medical tests. Before the middle of 1978, three of these six candidates will be appointed to the staff of ESA as European experiment specialists to undergo training for the first Spacelab mission. Several months before the first mission, one of them will be chosen to become the first West European to travel and work in earth orbit. The two others will act as back-up specialists for the first mission and will participate in ground-based mission activities. t4)ESA News Release of 2 September 1977. ts)Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, FRG, Kingdom.
36
Italy.
Netherlands,
Spain,
Switzerland,
United