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223006 (M00) The dynamics of risk perception: How does perceived risk respond to risk events?
292
Abstracts and Reviews
1997, pp 221-240. The authors estimate the value of a "blip", i.e. an immediate small reduction, in the hazard rate for a random sample of Swedes. Since the risk reduction is age-independent (2 "extra saved lives" out of 10,000 during the next year), they can examine how the value of a statistical life varies with age. The authors also show how blip data can be used to obtain a lower bound for the value of a permanent change in an individual's hazard rate. The value of a life exhibits an inverted-U shape with respect to age, peaking at the age of 40, and lies within the $3 to $7 million interval where most reasonable estimates are clustered according to Viscusi's (1992) survey. Keywords: WtTiingnessto pay, Insurance, Life expectancy, Statistical life, Aging. 223006 (MOO) The dynamics of Risk Perception: How Does Perceived Risk Respond to Risk Events? Rogers G.O., Risk Analysis, Vol. 17, No 6/1997, pp 745-758. This paper examines the relationship between perceived risk and experience. This research addresses the processes by which people learn about risk and choose among real life prospects with associated uncertainties, risks and benefits. By comparing the impact of acute risk events with that of chronic risk events on public perception of risk during and after the events, this research focuses on the learning processes that characterize what kinds of risk events alter the perception of risk. Comparing materialized hazards at existing facilities with the risks associated with potential facilities, this research addresses risk choices among real life prospects. This study uses a classic prepost quasi-experimental design. Surveys conducted in the Spring of 1992 on perceived and acceptable risk in Odessa and La Porte, Texas were conducted prior to risk events. Respondents from that survey were reinterviewed in the Spring of 1993 after the risk events to form a panel design. This paper analyses the affect of risk events on perceived risk and the implications of these experiences for public policy concerrling technological risk. The empirical results suggest that the social processes that construct and maintain risk in the public eye are at least as important as, if not more important than, the physical and psychological dimension of risk. Keywords: Acute and chronic risk events, Learning processes, Perception of risk.
223007 (MOO) Conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program HRA Procedure Gore B.F., Dukelow J.S., Mitts T.M., Nicholson W.L., Risk Analysis, Vol. 17, No6, 1997, pp 781-788. This paper presents a limited assessment of the conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) human reliability analysis (HRA) procedure described in NUREG/CR-4772. The data for this study are derived from simulator examination reports from the NRC requalification examination cycle for nuclear power plant operators. The ASEP procedure was used to estimate human error probability (HEP) values for critical tasks, an the HEP results were compared with the failure rates observed in examinations. The ASEP procedure was applied by PNNL operator license examiners who supplemented the limited information in the examination reports with expert judgment based upon their extensive simulator examination experience. Comparison of the average of the ASEP HEP values with the fraction of the population actually failed and demonstrated that the ASEP HEP values are larger (conservative) by a statistically significant average factor of two. Partitioning of tasks into subgroups based on the ASEP HEP values and comparison of the subgroup average ASEP HEP values with observed subgroup failure rates showed little or no conservatism for small ASEP HEP values, but considerable conservatism for larger ASEP HEP values. Keywords : Accident Sequence Evaluation Program, Human Reliability Analysis, human error probability. 223008 (MOO) A Score Comparison Method as an Aid to Integrating Separate Comparative Risk Rankings into a Single, Comparative Risk Ranking Deisler, P.F., Risk Analysis, Vol. 17, No 6, 1997, pp 797-806. A Score Comparison Method (SCM), for use in comparative risk projects, is described. It provides a degree of analytical guidance for those undertaking to integrate environmental issues which have been placed into separate, qualitative rankings according to different types of risk into a single, qualitative, integrated risk ranking. Its use in an actual case is shown. Keywords: Comparative risk projects, Ranking.
Abstracts and Reviews
1997, pp 221-240. The authors estimate the value of a "blip", i.e. an immediate small reduction, in the hazard rate for a random sample of Swedes. Since the risk reduction is age-independent (2 "extra saved lives" out of 10,000 during the next year), they can examine how the value of a statistical life varies with age. The authors also show how blip data can be used to obtain a lower bound for the value of a permanent change in an individual's hazard rate. The value of a life exhibits an inverted-U shape with respect to age, peaking at the age of 40, and lies within the $3 to $7 million interval where most reasonable estimates are clustered according to Viscusi's (1992) survey. Keywords: WtTiingnessto pay, Insurance, Life expectancy, Statistical life, Aging. 223006 (MOO) The dynamics of Risk Perception: How Does Perceived Risk Respond to Risk Events? Rogers G.O., Risk Analysis, Vol. 17, No 6/1997, pp 745-758. This paper examines the relationship between perceived risk and experience. This research addresses the processes by which people learn about risk and choose among real life prospects with associated uncertainties, risks and benefits. By comparing the impact of acute risk events with that of chronic risk events on public perception of risk during and after the events, this research focuses on the learning processes that characterize what kinds of risk events alter the perception of risk. Comparing materialized hazards at existing facilities with the risks associated with potential facilities, this research addresses risk choices among real life prospects. This study uses a classic prepost quasi-experimental design. Surveys conducted in the Spring of 1992 on perceived and acceptable risk in Odessa and La Porte, Texas were conducted prior to risk events. Respondents from that survey were reinterviewed in the Spring of 1993 after the risk events to form a panel design. This paper analyses the affect of risk events on perceived risk and the implications of these experiences for public policy concerrling technological risk. The empirical results suggest that the social processes that construct and maintain risk in the public eye are at least as important as, if not more important than, the physical and psychological dimension of risk. Keywords: Acute and chronic risk events, Learning processes, Perception of risk.
223007 (MOO) Conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program HRA Procedure Gore B.F., Dukelow J.S., Mitts T.M., Nicholson W.L., Risk Analysis, Vol. 17, No6, 1997, pp 781-788. This paper presents a limited assessment of the conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) human reliability analysis (HRA) procedure described in NUREG/CR-4772. The data for this study are derived from simulator examination reports from the NRC requalification examination cycle for nuclear power plant operators. The ASEP procedure was used to estimate human error probability (HEP) values for critical tasks, an the HEP results were compared with the failure rates observed in examinations. The ASEP procedure was applied by PNNL operator license examiners who supplemented the limited information in the examination reports with expert judgment based upon their extensive simulator examination experience. Comparison of the average of the ASEP HEP values with the fraction of the population actually failed and demonstrated that the ASEP HEP values are larger (conservative) by a statistically significant average factor of two. Partitioning of tasks into subgroups based on the ASEP HEP values and comparison of the subgroup average ASEP HEP values with observed subgroup failure rates showed little or no conservatism for small ASEP HEP values, but considerable conservatism for larger ASEP HEP values. Keywords : Accident Sequence Evaluation Program, Human Reliability Analysis, human error probability. 223008 (MOO) A Score Comparison Method as an Aid to Integrating Separate Comparative Risk Rankings into a Single, Comparative Risk Ranking Deisler, P.F., Risk Analysis, Vol. 17, No 6, 1997, pp 797-806. A Score Comparison Method (SCM), for use in comparative risk projects, is described. It provides a degree of analytical guidance for those undertaking to integrate environmental issues which have been placed into separate, qualitative rankings according to different types of risk into a single, qualitative, integrated risk ranking. Its use in an actual case is shown. Keywords: Comparative risk projects, Ranking.