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7 Billion and Counting: Reflecting on What It Means
Electricity Currents A survey of trends and insights in electricity restructuring
Why Does Grid Fail with Such Regularity? Without warning some 6 million residents across a wide stretch of Southern California, Southwest Arizona, and the northern top of Baja California in Mexico lost power on Sept. 8, 2011. It took hours to restore power. Coming a mere eight years after the much bigger blackout affecting over 50 million people in Northeast U.S. and the Canadian province of Ontario in August 2003, it reminded anyone who needed reminding that the U.S. electric grid is not as reliable or dependable as one would expect it to be. The fragility of the grid, of course, is not limited to America. Similar accidents afflict other regions of the world, to varying degrees. Smaller failures, like the smaller earthquakes so common in California, occur simply too frequent to get much publicity. The reality, however, is that the grid fails with regularity, and the failures are commonly blamed on faulty equipment and human error – as in the case of the most recent one, which has been blamed on a maintenance worker at the North Gila substation near Yuma, Ariz. Whatever the reason, a critical 500 kV line was inadvertently knocked off, causing massive chaos in the generation-poor San Diego region, which is
Continued on page 5
December 2011, Vol. 24, Issue 10
In Electricity Currents This Month: Why Does Grid Fail with Such Regularity?. 7 Billion and Counting: Reflecting on What It Means . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . As Costs Keep Falling, PV Moves within Reach In High-Retail Regions . . . . . . . . . . Utilities Must Be Turned Right on Their Heads To Save Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .1 . .1 . .2 . .3
Electricity Currents is compiled from the monthly newsletter EEnergy Informer published by Fereidoon P. Sioshansi, President of Menlo Energy Economics, a consultancy based in San Francisco. He can be reached at [email protected].
7 Billion and Counting: Reflecting on What It Means Sometime this fall, the global population was projected to hit the 7 billion mark. There has been a wide range of perspectives on reaching this milestone. Some commentators view more people as a blessing, providing the brains and hands that will generate more wealth and prosperity. Others have taken a more nuanced view. In an editorial titled ‘‘Seven Billion Rich,’’ The Financial Times opined, ‘‘Sensibly managed population growth is sustainable.’’ Likewise, this writer believes that what this milestone requires is reflection more than celebration. We have, of course, learned that Thomas Malthus, who was among the first to ring the 1040-6190/$–see front matter
1
alarm bell of population explosion – at a time when there were roughly a billion around – failed to account for man’s ingenuity in feeding the growing population. Consequently, far more of us are not merely surviving but living much longer, healthier, and better lives. The concern today is not whether there will be enough food, or energy, but what the quality life is likely to be for 7 billion, with more to follow. (If current trends continue, by 2046 we’re expected to reach the 9 billion mark, give or take a few million.) As more are lifted from poverty to the ranks of the middle class, they will demand and expect far more than food – a fact that surprised Chilean President Sebastian Pinera. In an interview with The Financial Times he referred to recent demonstrations asking for free higher education and other social services and said, ‘‘When you are poor, you worry about food and shelter. As you grow richer, other things become important: the quality of education, health, the environment.’’ How telling for a country that has reduced poverty from 42 percent of the population in 1990 to 15 percent today. The same fate awaits the Chinas, the Indias, the Brazils, and countless other developing countries whose rapidly growing middle class will want more of everything. While there is no denying that there will be many bright and resourceful among the 7 billion, it will be a more crowded planet. With more of us wanting a lot more, there will be increased pressure on Earth’s resources, not to mention the environment, the plants, and other species. While countless new Buddhas, Magellans, Newtons, Einsteins, Edisons, Bells, Gates, and Jobs will emerge to enrich human lives and enlighten us with their discoveries, it is not entirely clear if, on balance, more will necessarily be merrier. This writer’s prime concern, however, is that our current socio-economic system, with its emphasis on excessive materialism and focus on short-term gains, may lead us to the wrong course. Unfortunately, our political systems are also occupied with short-term gains even when these result in long-term pains. 2
1040-6190/$–see front matter
In his latest book, The Price of Civilization, Jeffrey Sachs, a prominent Columbia University economist, reaches conclusions that are currently out of synch with the views of the extreme right, which prefers a minimalist government with little or no regulation. Among his observations is that despite our incompetent and corrupt government, we need more, not less of it. Many would disagree with Sachs’ verdict amidst the current mismanaged budgets and fiscal crises afflicting countries around the world. Another pressing concern is the growing inequality of how the Earth’s bounties and economic gains are distributed among the growing global citizens as witnessed by current street protests. Like most everyone else, I am not in favor of more government, but see the need for continued oversight of the free enterprise system – as wonderful as it is. Left to their own resources, profit-driven businesses will succumb to an irresistible urge to take short cuts and be short sighted. With 7 billion of us and counting, there will be less room for error and more to pay for them once they are made. & doi:/10.1016/j.tej.2011.11.008
As Costs Keep Falling, PV Moves within Reach In High-Retail Regions It’s good news if you are buying, not so good if you are manufacturing. That pretty much sums up the story in solar power these days, and explains the recent failure of several prominent U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing ventures, all recipients of generous loan guarantees from the U.S. Department of Energy, the venture capital sector, and state and federal tax credits. A recently released report from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBL) documents what everyone in the business already knows, namely rapidly falling prices for solar PV components. Tracking the Sun IV, authored by The Electricity Journal
Why Does Grid Fail with Such Regularity? Without warning some 6 million residents across a wide stretch of Southern California, Southwest Arizona, and the northern top of Baja California in Mexico lost power on Sept. 8, 2011. It took hours to restore power. Coming a mere eight years after the much bigger blackout affecting over 50 million people in Northeast U.S. and the Canadian province of Ontario in August 2003, it reminded anyone who needed reminding that the U.S. electric grid is not as reliable or dependable as one would expect it to be. The fragility of the grid, of course, is not limited to America. Similar accidents afflict other regions of the world, to varying degrees. Smaller failures, like the smaller earthquakes so common in California, occur simply too frequent to get much publicity. The reality, however, is that the grid fails with regularity, and the failures are commonly blamed on faulty equipment and human error – as in the case of the most recent one, which has been blamed on a maintenance worker at the North Gila substation near Yuma, Ariz. Whatever the reason, a critical 500 kV line was inadvertently knocked off, causing massive chaos in the generation-poor San Diego region, which is
Continued on page 5
December 2011, Vol. 24, Issue 10
In Electricity Currents This Month: Why Does Grid Fail with Such Regularity?. 7 Billion and Counting: Reflecting on What It Means . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . As Costs Keep Falling, PV Moves within Reach In High-Retail Regions . . . . . . . . . . Utilities Must Be Turned Right on Their Heads To Save Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .1 . .1 . .2 . .3
Electricity Currents is compiled from the monthly newsletter EEnergy Informer published by Fereidoon P. Sioshansi, President of Menlo Energy Economics, a consultancy based in San Francisco. He can be reached at [email protected].
7 Billion and Counting: Reflecting on What It Means Sometime this fall, the global population was projected to hit the 7 billion mark. There has been a wide range of perspectives on reaching this milestone. Some commentators view more people as a blessing, providing the brains and hands that will generate more wealth and prosperity. Others have taken a more nuanced view. In an editorial titled ‘‘Seven Billion Rich,’’ The Financial Times opined, ‘‘Sensibly managed population growth is sustainable.’’ Likewise, this writer believes that what this milestone requires is reflection more than celebration. We have, of course, learned that Thomas Malthus, who was among the first to ring the 1040-6190/$–see front matter
1
alarm bell of population explosion – at a time when there were roughly a billion around – failed to account for man’s ingenuity in feeding the growing population. Consequently, far more of us are not merely surviving but living much longer, healthier, and better lives. The concern today is not whether there will be enough food, or energy, but what the quality life is likely to be for 7 billion, with more to follow. (If current trends continue, by 2046 we’re expected to reach the 9 billion mark, give or take a few million.) As more are lifted from poverty to the ranks of the middle class, they will demand and expect far more than food – a fact that surprised Chilean President Sebastian Pinera. In an interview with The Financial Times he referred to recent demonstrations asking for free higher education and other social services and said, ‘‘When you are poor, you worry about food and shelter. As you grow richer, other things become important: the quality of education, health, the environment.’’ How telling for a country that has reduced poverty from 42 percent of the population in 1990 to 15 percent today. The same fate awaits the Chinas, the Indias, the Brazils, and countless other developing countries whose rapidly growing middle class will want more of everything. While there is no denying that there will be many bright and resourceful among the 7 billion, it will be a more crowded planet. With more of us wanting a lot more, there will be increased pressure on Earth’s resources, not to mention the environment, the plants, and other species. While countless new Buddhas, Magellans, Newtons, Einsteins, Edisons, Bells, Gates, and Jobs will emerge to enrich human lives and enlighten us with their discoveries, it is not entirely clear if, on balance, more will necessarily be merrier. This writer’s prime concern, however, is that our current socio-economic system, with its emphasis on excessive materialism and focus on short-term gains, may lead us to the wrong course. Unfortunately, our political systems are also occupied with short-term gains even when these result in long-term pains. 2
1040-6190/$–see front matter
In his latest book, The Price of Civilization, Jeffrey Sachs, a prominent Columbia University economist, reaches conclusions that are currently out of synch with the views of the extreme right, which prefers a minimalist government with little or no regulation. Among his observations is that despite our incompetent and corrupt government, we need more, not less of it. Many would disagree with Sachs’ verdict amidst the current mismanaged budgets and fiscal crises afflicting countries around the world. Another pressing concern is the growing inequality of how the Earth’s bounties and economic gains are distributed among the growing global citizens as witnessed by current street protests. Like most everyone else, I am not in favor of more government, but see the need for continued oversight of the free enterprise system – as wonderful as it is. Left to their own resources, profit-driven businesses will succumb to an irresistible urge to take short cuts and be short sighted. With 7 billion of us and counting, there will be less room for error and more to pay for them once they are made. & doi:/10.1016/j.tej.2011.11.008
As Costs Keep Falling, PV Moves within Reach In High-Retail Regions It’s good news if you are buying, not so good if you are manufacturing. That pretty much sums up the story in solar power these days, and explains the recent failure of several prominent U.S. solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing ventures, all recipients of generous loan guarantees from the U.S. Department of Energy, the venture capital sector, and state and federal tax credits. A recently released report from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBL) documents what everyone in the business already knows, namely rapidly falling prices for solar PV components. Tracking the Sun IV, authored by The Electricity Journal