A Bayesian approach for predicting judged hearing disability

accident involvement differently from experienced drivers (males aged 38-50). Subjects rated the risk of accident involvement for driving situations in general and for specific driving situations depicted in photographs and on videotape, and they rated the risk of accident involvement while driving and riding as a passenger in 15 real-world traffic situations. The effect of seat belt use on perceived risk of accident involvement was also assessed. The results show that young drivers do perceive the risk of accident involvement differently than do experienced drivers. Specifically, young drivers see speeding as less risky than do experienced drivers, while driving on snow-covered roads is seen as more risky by young drivers. As young drivers became more familiar with a driving location they reduced their (e.g., an intersection) rating of the risk of an accident, while experienced drivers did not. Requiring a young driver to wear a seat belt maintained a higher perceived risk of an accident without significantly altering their objective risk. Young drivers saw themselves as significantly less likely to be involved in an accident than their peers, while experienced drivers saw their own chances of accident involvement as comparable to those of their peers. The results of this study suggest that increasing the perception of risk of an accident for younger drivers would be helpful in reducing risk-taking behavior .

Occupational

Safety

Accidents and Minor Accidents of the Musculoskeletal System in Heavy (Concrete Reinforcement Work) and Light (Painting) Construction Work. Journal of Occupational Accidents,

April

1985,

7(l),

pp. 17-32.

The aim of this study was to clarify the differences between concrete reinforcement workers and painters in the frequency, causes, and types of accidents and minor accidents affecting the musculoskeletal system, Accident report forms sent by construction firms to insurance companies were analyzed in deSpring 1986Wolume

17/Number

1

tail. Accidents led to at least a 3-day absence from work. The incidence rate (accidents x 1,OOOinumber of workers) of accidents affecting the musculoskeletal system was four times as high among the reinforcement workers (124) as among the painters (30). Many accidents affecting the musculoskeletal system were reported five times more frequently by the reinforcement workers (1.9 minor accidents/1,000 workhours) than by the painters (0.4 minor accidents/l,000 workhours). Altogether, 440 man months of reinforcement workers and 429 man months of painters were covered. The accidents and minor accidents were classified according to the following categories: work phase; work posture/ work movement at moment of occurrence; ultimate event of occurrence; the part of body injured; and the injury. A Bayesian Approach for Predicting Judged Hearing Disability. R. Phaneuf, R. Hetu, and J. A. Hanley, American Journal of Industrial Medicine, 1985, 7(4), pp. 343-352.

A method of determining the cutoff point for an administrative decision to award compensation is proposed. To construct the predictive system a Bayesian approach and discriminant analysis were employed. Judged hearing disability was used as the criterion with audiometric scores as the determining variables. The common law doctrine of the balance of probability was used as the criterion, namely the 50th centile, on which to propose a cutoff point. The highest precision in predicting judged hearing disability was obtained with an average audiometric score at 1,000, 2,000, 3,000, 4,000 Hz in the worse ear. Assuming that judged hearing disability is a valid predictor of handicap, the cutoff point based on the balance of probability (50th centile) was obtained at 25 dB. The study also confirmed results from previous studies: (a) hearing sensitivity in frequencies higher than 2,000 Hz is required to predict hearing disability and handicap, (b) judged hearing disability is better correlated with hearing sensitivity in the worst ear, and (c) the audiometric cutoff point for a medical legal definition of impairment should be lower than what certain technical groups have proposed in the past. 45