A Bayesian model of the acquisition of choice probabilities

297

Brhavioural Processes, 9 (1984) 297-304 % 1984 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.

ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS PRESENTED AT THE SIXTH HARVARD SYMPOSIUM ON QUANTITATIVE ANALYSES OF BEHAVIOR: FORAGING CAMBRIDGE, MASS. 10 AND II JUNE 1983

A BAYESIAN

MODEL OF THE ACQUISITION

H. R. PULLIAM

Models optimal

(Dept. of Zoology,

University

of patch choice are developed

statistical

probability

decision

will match

than the other.

theory.

of Georgia,

predicts

environment

is estimated

an animal's choice

based on successive of the animal

Bayesian

model

proposed

FORAGING

IN A CHANGING

unstable

sites has a stepwise constant.

by Krebs,

Kacelnik,

ENVIRONMENT:

are described

decrease

and the other site remains

in reward

model

foraging

starlings

probability

the changing Our results

University

of

and great tits face a one of two feeding

while

the other site is

site has a stepwise are compared

with

increase some

predictions.

DECISIONS

A. I. HOUSTON (Dept. of Zoology, CB2 3EJ, England)

Optimal

of a simpler

MODELS AND EXPERIMENTS

in which

constant.

sampling

THE CONTROL OF FORAGING

nothing

I

and Taylor.

In the first experiment

paradigm.

In the second experiment

learning and optimal

in each patch.

rule than with predictions

A.KACELNIK, J. R.KREBS, and D. STEPHENS (Dept. of Zoology, Oxford, South Parks Rd., Oxford OX1 3PS, England)

Two experiments

applications

results of patch choice by birds are in closer

with the proposed matching

concurrent,

using

that one patch yields higher reward

to the actual experiences

show that experimental

GA 30601)

Athens,

in an uncertain

The model

the "certainty"

This certainty

of Bayes' theorem

agreement

OF CHOICE PROBABILITIES

Cambridge

theory specifies

about the actual mechanisms

University,

how animals

that control

Downing

St., Cambridge

ought to forage, but says

foraging

decisions.

There