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A forecast of curricula and methodologies in secondary education in the year 2000
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 3, 137-146 (1971)
137
RESEARCH P R O B L E M
A Forecast of Curricula and Methodologies in Secondary Education in the Year 2000 F O R D M. J E N K I N S and H. W. L A N F O R D
Introduction
The authors' interest in the future of secondary education was stimulated by a recent article "A University for the Post-Industrial Society" by H. A. Linstone.[l] Other factors stimulating interest is the projection of a population of some 340 million persons in the United States by the year 2000, of which forty percent (40%) or 136 million individuals (of all ages) are projected to be students. Last but by no means least is the desire to stimulate interest in this area with subsequent additional research of the problem area. The University of the Future
Harold A. Linstone, writing in Technological Forecasting on the subject of "A University for the Post-Industrial Society",[l] highlights threats to the university system as we know it now, and focuses on three needs the university must address in the coming decades. Linstone also postulates a framework for the university of the future. The postindustrial society has been characterized by Daniel Bell[2] as follows: 1. 2. 3. 4.
Centrality of theoretical knowledge for innovation Primacy of knowledge institutions Strategic role of "human capital" (since knowledge is a strategic resource) Emergence of new intellectual technology (e.g., systems analysis, simulation, decision analysis) 5. Creation of "future orientation" in the society
Linstone highlights the dramatic acceleration of technology versus the rigidity displayed by organizations, e.g., church, government, industry and university. The three major needs the university must address in the future, as cited by Linstone, are: 1. Preparation 0f the unprepared society including the acceptance of rapid change 2. A life-time learning center 3. Sociotechnological systems research The university Linstone sees in the future will be structured on three branches of discipline-oriented basic science--the physical sciences, including mathematics and MR. JENKINSis President of New Carlisle-BethelTeachers Association, New Carfisle, Ohio. DR. LANrORDis Associate Professor in the Department of Management in the Division of Business Administration at Wright State University, Dayton, Ohio. Copyright © 1971 by American Elsevier Publishing Company, Inc.
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F.M. JENKINS AND H. W. LANFORD
philosophy, the social sciences, and the behavioral sciences. Upon these fundamental subjects are built the applied sciences and technologies. At the third level, the subjects are systems oriented, not merely interdisciplinary but integrated. At this level, the categories of systems are technological systems, social systems, and sociotechnological systems. At the fourth, or highest level, is a new kind of concept (in today's thinking) which integrates the systems defined in the third level and is concerned with future studies such as goal analysis and designs of alternate futures. Linstone specifies a requirement that all students be required to participate in both the systems (level 3) and the super system (level 4) area during their undergraduate period. Linstone points out that the students will thus be forced into personal contact with experiences in vital problem areas and with individuals of widely diverse backgrounds. The communicative capability as well as the motivation of the student will thus be enhanced. In the university of the future, each student will be expected to learn at his own pace-there will be no standard study-profile. Linstone recognizes the increasing tendency toward two careers and during the overall work-span of an individual career foresees an "up-dating" educational period in each career followed by a post-career study period to prepare for true retirement.
Planning Efforts in Secondary Education What is happening in the area of secondary education? How will the secondary student be prepared for this post-industrial university? The need for long-range assessmettt in secondary education has been recognized and the activities of one group, the New Carlisle-Bethel Teachers Association, have addressed themselves to this problem area. Their activities will be the subject of this report. Ford Jenkins is one secondary educator planning programs for the future environment. This article will undertake to document the findings of the research activities of the authors and the NC-BTA. Reluctance to Change Secondary educators are at least as guilty of inertia to change as their university counterparts. Professor Oettinger[3] has pointed out previously the very slow development and adaptation of innovative teaching devices and procedures. One of the problems facing today's secondary teachers is that of overcoming this resistance to change. It is obvious that if this problem is not overcome, and rapidly, we shall not be able to take full advantage of new advances in teaching methodologies now known, much less continue the development of unusual teaching innovations. The secondary educator must become "change-oriented", and be prepared to apply teaching innovations. He must demand even more advanced and effective teaching innovations. Hirsch has pointed out[4] some "inhibitions" to educational change. Educational innovations are often blocked because they represent new values, new styles, and uncomfortable uncertainties. Forces acting on innovations include parents, teachers, administrators, unions, special interest groups, and political and legal limitations. An examination of the attitudes of each of these factors will emphasize the difficulty involved in the adaptation of innovation. On the optimistic side is the trend for our population to become younger, and, as the population becomes younger, the greater the stake in the future and the more flexibility toward innovation for improvement of
CURRICULA AND METHODOLOGIES
139
the future. Hirsch has suggested[5] six elements to develop a positive strategy for facing an uncertain future: 1. Identify new developments bearing on society in the future, and forecast important parameters 2. Estimate the effects of societal changes on the future demand for education 3. Estimate future imbalances and strains on education and appraise their general order of magnitude 4. Identify promising~olutions 5. Forecast probable differential effects of alternative solutions 6. Evaluate the net consequences of alternative solutions
Progress in Secondary Education Drucker has pointed out[6] that no one born after 1900 has known anything but a world uprooting its foundations, overturning its values, and toppling its idols. "Revolutions" against, not for, have been the hallmark of our times. We now have an opportunity to achieve needed and desired changes. Drucker listed four areas in which we face new demands: an intellectual area where a new "educated society" is emerging; an economic area in which economic development "up to poverty" presents both an opportunity of advance and unity and the danger of international and interracial class war, setting the underdeveloped against the developed peoples; a political area in which we face the need for new institutions of social order; and a cultural area in which the disappearance of the "East" as a viable culture and civilization has created a vacuum. The thrust of this research has been in the area necessary to assure that the new "educated society" does indeed receive the secondary school preparation to permit success in our broadened areas of economics, politics, and culture. Drucker noted in 1957, that thirty years previously only one out of eight working Americans had been to high school, that at that time four out of five young people of high school age were attending high school, and predicted that in twenty years (1979) practically every working American would be a high school graduate.[7] Drucker concludes that educational development should become a priority of national policy. [8] With the inhibitions to educational change in mind, and with the charge of Drucker to recommend meaningful changes, the authors have sought to examine alternative futures, to forecast secondary educational processes for the year 2000, and to point out a path toward the achievement of the most desirable of the alternative futures in secondary education.
Reinforcing Views A literature search points out activities of other groups and individuals making studies of the future. The American Academy of Arts and Sciences created a Commission on the Year 2000, in 1965, and the first materials of the Commission's deliberations were published in Daedalus, the Journal of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Volume 96, N u m b e r 3, Summer 1967. This document is highly recommended as a source of information concerning the future, specifically the year 2000, over a wide spectrum of disciplines. The discussion immediately following is based on information contained in Daedalus. lO
140
F . M . J E N K I N S A N D H. W. L A N F O R D
Rogers has observed[9] that educators seem to show greater resistance to change than does any other institutional group. He admits to the possibility that education will continue as it is--concerned only with words, symbols, rational concepts based on the authoritative role of the teacher, but perhaps further dehumanized by teaching machines, computerized knowledge and increased use of tests and examinations, because of the educator's resistance to change. Rogers believes that changes will occur and states that schools will be greatly deemphasized in favor of a much broader, thoughtfully devised environment for learning, where the experiences of the student will be challenging, rewarding, affirmative, and pleasurable. Rogers states the teacher will be replaced by a facilitator, skilled in stimulating individual and group initiative in learning, skilled in facilitating discussions-in-depth of the meaning to the student of what is being learned, skilled in fostering creativity, and skilled in providing the resources for learning.
EARNED DEGREES CONFERRED BY LEVEL OF DEGREE 1940 to 1967
EXTRAPOLATED TO 2 0 0 0
TOTAL NUMBER
/ / BACHELOR AND FIRST PROFESSIONAL DEGREES / / /
/
/ /
J
1,000,000. ///. / /
•
/
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/
/
500,000. 0
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!
O
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/ 20,000.
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10,0001940
I
!
1950
1960
!
1970 YEAR
'
1980
, 1990
2000
Fig. I. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports. Trend extrapolation of plotted data points by authors.
CURRICULA AND METHODOLOGIES
141
The Problem The student population growth trend is intensified by the fact that in the year 2000 almost everyone will have the educational opportunities available to the "upper classes" of the past. Drucker has pointed out the fact[10] that with equivalent education individuals will expect equivalent opportunities. Since only a small percentage of the total work force can expect senior level positions, education must be prepared to train already-educated people to effectively relate to their jobs, their society, and their individual drives. This implies the need for more "second-career" training and for training in the satisfying use of leisure time. The problem is further exacerbated by sheer numbers of persons who will require/ desire further training. Figure 1 shows a linear increase of students in higher education pursuits by the year 2000. Figure 2 shows the projected numbers of individuals who will be in the secondary education program (for thefirst time, not considering "re-training" needs) in the year 2000. The number of diploma and other degree students is increasing yearly in every category, i.e., the High School, Bachelors, Masters, and Doctoral level. By the year 2000 there will be in excess of 2 million of the doctoral level degree and some 5 millions at the Master and Bachelor level degrees conferred as compared presently to some 20,000 doctoral degrees and some 700,000 Bachelor and Masters level degrees. PUBLIC SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AND POPULATION PROJECTED TO THE YEAR 2 0 0 0,.,...-. o0OO,,.,
100 M I LLION'
o
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-
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o o ..~ o TOTAL POPULATION I'~" (EXCLUDING ARMED FORCES} / . ~ " OVERSEAS ~.~,.
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' 1960
' 1980
2000
Fig. 2. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports. Trend extrapolation of plotted data points by authors.
142
F.M. JENKINS AND H. W. LANFORD
Eldredge has found[ll] that students appear to learn faster with more enthusiasm if they participate very actively in producing knowledge rather than reading about the process. Eldredge is concerned with college students (and graduate students) in his research. The authors have found the same observation true of secondary education students. The authors are as certain that innovative techniques such as discussed in "The Forecast" section of this article will bring about the same joy of participation in secondary education learning experiences as that found in higher education by Eldredge. Premises for the Forecasting Effort It is a premise of this projection that the population increase of the United States will continue to increase as it has in the period 1930-1967, giving a trend following a geometric straight-line, and that this rate of increase will continue through the year 2000. The authors have admittedly violated good forecasting practices by linearly extrapolating some trends further into the future than historical information shown here permits. This action is defended by the allegation that the importance of this problem justifies the projection to the year 2000 in order to show that plans can and should be made to overcome the problem and to get some "educated estimate" of the size and composition of the group under consideration. A review of historical data examined but not reported here supports the projection. The authors ask tolerance of this transgression. Another premise is that secondary educational methodologies and curricula objectives for the year 2000 can be identified and programs prepared that will achieve the desired objectives. The authors accept Linstone's findings (or projections) of increased time available to adults for leisure activities (and for the same reasons: shorter work weeks and earlier retirement). This premise then confirms the need for increased adult education/ retraining programs. The university "system" will be unable to cope with the very large numbers of adults seeking additional education or retraining programs. The secondary educational system must then be prepared to meet this increased demand. The "leisure" class may approximate sixty percent of the total population. It is further assumed that the Federal government will continue to play an everincreasing role of importance (and control) in the field of education by the allocation of funds, by the leadership provided for the development of plans, by the training of supervisory personnel, and by participation in planning boards. The authors forecast a continuing strengthening of the resources and role of the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Through the fund allocation role, and the role of participation in planning boards and supervisory training programs, the Federal government will devise and implement standards of education at each level. It is assumed that industry will continue its interest and participation in the vocational and professional training of its employees. Perhaps the most controversial assumption to be made is that as a society we will awaken to our educational/retraining obligations and will actually provide the resources necessary to implement a successful program. The Forecast A few general predictions will be made before the more specific predictions of a secondary education program.
CURRICULA AND METHODOLOGIES
143
To assure continued industry attention and participation, the Federal government will adopt some program of tax credit or tax relief for industries supporting the educational program. In fact, it appears within the realm of possibility that the funding of a national education program could equal or surpass the funding allocated to national recreation and national defense.[12] Adult educational programs will be integrated, and will be administered by local, district, regional, and national adult educational centers with objectives and performance standards specified at each level. "Blue-collar" workers will have the opportunity to devote as much as thirty percent (30 ~o) of"job time" to continue educational/retraining pursuits. Managerial personnel will have the opportunity to devote as much as fifty percent (50 ~) of"job time" to the advancement of educational and management-training objectives. Federal funds will be available to build the necessary physical facilities, to train and pay the staff, and to provide support for research and application of innovative teaching aids and equipment needed to implement secondary educational program of the year 2000. The more specific projections are as follows. The national secondary education program will come under the jurisdiction of"centers" at the national level, the regional level, the district level, and the local level. Learning centers will be headed by a Master Teacher, a Pedagogus, or Facilitator (all names for the same individual). Staff teachers will make use of rating and analysis "machines", the student will be provided with a "learning machine" and a set of programmed instructions. All learning centers will be equivalent in level of achievement expected, staff, facilities, and standards of performance expected. The child of the year 2000 will begin school at the age of 18 months to 2 years. Teaching aides will instruct these children in the subject areas of sensitivity, creativity, logic, and ethics. General supervision only will be exercised, with the objective being the maximum development of the child. Initial guidance will be given the child but decisions as to areas of effort of work and other fields of interest will be released to the child as "growth" allows. Predetermined norms of achievement will be developed and progress of the individual child continuously compared with the desired profile. This period of instruction will be according to national standards. This pre-elementary training will continue through ages three, four, and five years with increasing emphasis being placed in the child for responsibility for decisions. An objective of the elementary program is the achievement level by which the child makes fifty percent or more of the decisions affecting his or her educational progress. After the attainment of age 5 and this achievement level, progress or advancement will be on the basis of individual development or progress and not on the basis of age. Although age will no longer be the criteria of achievement it is expected that the Elementary III phase will be composed of six years and Elementary IV composed of children of chronological age seven years who have shown progressively increasing ability to assume responsibility for decisions concerning individual development. During Elementary IV the children showing expected achievement levels will continue academic pursuits. Children not meeting expected achievement levels will be counseled into a vocational field, if not there already by choice. Emphasis will be on individual responsibility for decision-making in both the "professional" area and the "vocational" area. On the basis of individual achievement students in both fields will continue to progress, at a pace set by the student, through the curricula for the various programs, with increasing emphasis
144
F . M . J E N K I N S A N D H. W. L A N F O R D
being placed on the individual for decisions. The student will gradually assume full responsibility for the development of his/her specific program to meet his/her predetermined objectives. Opportunities will exist at periodic intervals for the "vocational" student to return to the "professional" area when sufficient development and desire manifest themselves. A student in the professional area will be given the freedom of choice if he or she expresses a preference for the "vocational" area. Data collection, data storage, and data retrieval "machines" will be available to the developing student. Rogers has forecast that in our educational system of the future, the most important learnings will be both personal and interpersonal.[13] This learning environment is not intended as a for living, it is an in living. Rogers foresees each child developing confidence in his own ability to learn (under guidance of a facilitator) and each child will be rewarded for learning at his own pace. Each child will learn that he is a person of worth, having unique and worthwhile capacities. He will learn how to be himself in a group--to listen, but also to speak, to learn about himself, and also to confront and give feedback to others. He will, in short, learn to be an individual, not a faceless conformist. Figure 3 attempts to graphically portray the progression of the child from ages 18 months to 2 years through the period of development at which the child is directed into the "professional" field or the vocational field.
preparation
experience
GUIDANCE AND COUI~ELLIN6 DECISION POINTS GUIDANCE AND COUNSELLING ANy CHILD NOT REACHIN6 THE 50 fo 60 pI~ ¢19¢r LEVELS OF FRI~DQM AT THE AGE B A ~ 6 to 8 WILL BE REDIRECTED I N ~ VOCATIONAL LINES. P4 CHILDREN CONSIDERED MORE SUITABLE FOR PROFESSIONAL~ ~ WOJLD BE P/ CHILDREN AND F2 CHILDREN M ~ SUITABLE R ~ TRADE W ~ ~ VI~ULD FI CHILDREN. F~ 041LDREN WOULD FIT MORE INTO TECHNICAL TRADES OPERATIONS WHERE/~ F2 CHILOREN WOULD ARPEAR MOIRE TRADE-ORIENTED.
6 to 8 yEARS BAND FOR REASSIGNMENT OF THE CHILD FOR CONTINUING WORKACADEMIC/~LLY OR VOCATIONALLY lOOt ALL TO THE LEFT OF THE AREA ABCD AND
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12
CURRICULA AND METHODOLOGIES
145
Summary and Conclusions By the year 2000 the equivalent of the present high school education will be completed by the time the student is twelve years of age. The equivalent of the present Bachelor's degree will be obtained by age fourteen, the equivalent of the present Master's degree by age fifteen and the equivalent of the present doctoral degree by age seventeen. There will be newly created fields of learning in which a degree senior to the present doctoral degree will be awarded. A student may complete requirements for such a degree by age twenty. Learning will be a self-motivated procedure with early guidance by a facilitator. Formal instruction will begin at an early age (ages 18 months to 2 years) and will progress in accordance with the rate of progress determined by the student. Measurement of growth and progress will be against national norms or standards. The student will be encouraged to assume responsibility for decisions at a very early age. Secondary school curriculum will consist of the scientific method, biology, science and technology, communicative theory, outline of history, social psychology, and law. Mechanical and computerized teaching devices will be in widespread use. The rate of the programmed instruction will be controlled by the individual student. The secondary educational objective will be the provision of the background necessary to allow the vocational and professional student to be prepared for entry into the university, or advanced vocational training program by the time the student has reached the age of 12 years. Each individual may expect to spend 20 years of his or her life in the primary career field. At about age 40, the individual may expect to enter a re-training program to prepare him or her for a "second" career. Recommendations The establishment of a permanent office, staffed by a small number of highly-qualified educators, to develop more complete secondary-educational objectives and curricula to meet these objectives is recommended at this time. This "Office of Future Educational Requirements" should submit an annual report on innovations in secondary education and should prepare a "futures study" for secondary education at 5 year intervals. These "futures studies" are seen as forecasts of secondary education procedures and curriculum requirements of the year 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, etc. This office might well come under the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. The authors entered this research project to determine the feasibility of such a study. Having established the fact that such a projection of secondary education methodologies and curricula is feasible, a secondary objective becomes that of obtaining feedback information from interested readers to reinforce the conclusions (or to stimulate additional research). The authors feel that much of the discussion may prove to be controversial. Opinions are earnestly solicited. References 1 Linstone, H. A., TechnologicalForecasting, 1, (No. 3, March 1970), 263-281. 2 Bell, Daniel, "The Measurement of Knowledge and Technology", Indicators of Social Change, E. B. Sheldon and W. E. Moore, eds. Russell Sage Foundation, New York, 1968, 145-246. 30ettinger, Anthony G., Run, Computer, Run; The Mythology of Educational Innovations, Harvard University Press 1969, 42-43. 4 Hirsch, W. Z., "Education and the Future", Mankind2000, R. Jungk and J. Galtung, eds., Allen and Unwin, London, 1969, 215-216. 5 ibid, 218.
146
F.M. JENKINS AND H. W. LANFORD
Drucker, P. F., Landmarks of Tomorrow, Harper and Row, Publishers, N.Y., 1957, 111-I 13. ibid, ll7. ibid, 124. Rogers, Carl R.,Journal of Applied Behavioral Science, 4, (July/August/September, 1968), 265-275. Drucker, op cit, 121. EIdredge, H. Wentworth, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2, (Number 2, 1970), 133-148. 12 Health, Education and Social Welfare, Urban Development and GNP, Gross Expenditures for Individual Goals, Table I-Gross Expenditures for Individual Goals, 1962-1975, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Publ. Washington, D.C., 1965. 13 Rogers, Carl R., op cit, 265-280. 6 7 8 9 l0 11
April 5, 1971
137
RESEARCH P R O B L E M
A Forecast of Curricula and Methodologies in Secondary Education in the Year 2000 F O R D M. J E N K I N S and H. W. L A N F O R D
Introduction
The authors' interest in the future of secondary education was stimulated by a recent article "A University for the Post-Industrial Society" by H. A. Linstone.[l] Other factors stimulating interest is the projection of a population of some 340 million persons in the United States by the year 2000, of which forty percent (40%) or 136 million individuals (of all ages) are projected to be students. Last but by no means least is the desire to stimulate interest in this area with subsequent additional research of the problem area. The University of the Future
Harold A. Linstone, writing in Technological Forecasting on the subject of "A University for the Post-Industrial Society",[l] highlights threats to the university system as we know it now, and focuses on three needs the university must address in the coming decades. Linstone also postulates a framework for the university of the future. The postindustrial society has been characterized by Daniel Bell[2] as follows: 1. 2. 3. 4.
Centrality of theoretical knowledge for innovation Primacy of knowledge institutions Strategic role of "human capital" (since knowledge is a strategic resource) Emergence of new intellectual technology (e.g., systems analysis, simulation, decision analysis) 5. Creation of "future orientation" in the society
Linstone highlights the dramatic acceleration of technology versus the rigidity displayed by organizations, e.g., church, government, industry and university. The three major needs the university must address in the future, as cited by Linstone, are: 1. Preparation 0f the unprepared society including the acceptance of rapid change 2. A life-time learning center 3. Sociotechnological systems research The university Linstone sees in the future will be structured on three branches of discipline-oriented basic science--the physical sciences, including mathematics and MR. JENKINSis President of New Carlisle-BethelTeachers Association, New Carfisle, Ohio. DR. LANrORDis Associate Professor in the Department of Management in the Division of Business Administration at Wright State University, Dayton, Ohio. Copyright © 1971 by American Elsevier Publishing Company, Inc.
138
F.M. JENKINS AND H. W. LANFORD
philosophy, the social sciences, and the behavioral sciences. Upon these fundamental subjects are built the applied sciences and technologies. At the third level, the subjects are systems oriented, not merely interdisciplinary but integrated. At this level, the categories of systems are technological systems, social systems, and sociotechnological systems. At the fourth, or highest level, is a new kind of concept (in today's thinking) which integrates the systems defined in the third level and is concerned with future studies such as goal analysis and designs of alternate futures. Linstone specifies a requirement that all students be required to participate in both the systems (level 3) and the super system (level 4) area during their undergraduate period. Linstone points out that the students will thus be forced into personal contact with experiences in vital problem areas and with individuals of widely diverse backgrounds. The communicative capability as well as the motivation of the student will thus be enhanced. In the university of the future, each student will be expected to learn at his own pace-there will be no standard study-profile. Linstone recognizes the increasing tendency toward two careers and during the overall work-span of an individual career foresees an "up-dating" educational period in each career followed by a post-career study period to prepare for true retirement.
Planning Efforts in Secondary Education What is happening in the area of secondary education? How will the secondary student be prepared for this post-industrial university? The need for long-range assessmettt in secondary education has been recognized and the activities of one group, the New Carlisle-Bethel Teachers Association, have addressed themselves to this problem area. Their activities will be the subject of this report. Ford Jenkins is one secondary educator planning programs for the future environment. This article will undertake to document the findings of the research activities of the authors and the NC-BTA. Reluctance to Change Secondary educators are at least as guilty of inertia to change as their university counterparts. Professor Oettinger[3] has pointed out previously the very slow development and adaptation of innovative teaching devices and procedures. One of the problems facing today's secondary teachers is that of overcoming this resistance to change. It is obvious that if this problem is not overcome, and rapidly, we shall not be able to take full advantage of new advances in teaching methodologies now known, much less continue the development of unusual teaching innovations. The secondary educator must become "change-oriented", and be prepared to apply teaching innovations. He must demand even more advanced and effective teaching innovations. Hirsch has pointed out[4] some "inhibitions" to educational change. Educational innovations are often blocked because they represent new values, new styles, and uncomfortable uncertainties. Forces acting on innovations include parents, teachers, administrators, unions, special interest groups, and political and legal limitations. An examination of the attitudes of each of these factors will emphasize the difficulty involved in the adaptation of innovation. On the optimistic side is the trend for our population to become younger, and, as the population becomes younger, the greater the stake in the future and the more flexibility toward innovation for improvement of
CURRICULA AND METHODOLOGIES
139
the future. Hirsch has suggested[5] six elements to develop a positive strategy for facing an uncertain future: 1. Identify new developments bearing on society in the future, and forecast important parameters 2. Estimate the effects of societal changes on the future demand for education 3. Estimate future imbalances and strains on education and appraise their general order of magnitude 4. Identify promising~olutions 5. Forecast probable differential effects of alternative solutions 6. Evaluate the net consequences of alternative solutions
Progress in Secondary Education Drucker has pointed out[6] that no one born after 1900 has known anything but a world uprooting its foundations, overturning its values, and toppling its idols. "Revolutions" against, not for, have been the hallmark of our times. We now have an opportunity to achieve needed and desired changes. Drucker listed four areas in which we face new demands: an intellectual area where a new "educated society" is emerging; an economic area in which economic development "up to poverty" presents both an opportunity of advance and unity and the danger of international and interracial class war, setting the underdeveloped against the developed peoples; a political area in which we face the need for new institutions of social order; and a cultural area in which the disappearance of the "East" as a viable culture and civilization has created a vacuum. The thrust of this research has been in the area necessary to assure that the new "educated society" does indeed receive the secondary school preparation to permit success in our broadened areas of economics, politics, and culture. Drucker noted in 1957, that thirty years previously only one out of eight working Americans had been to high school, that at that time four out of five young people of high school age were attending high school, and predicted that in twenty years (1979) practically every working American would be a high school graduate.[7] Drucker concludes that educational development should become a priority of national policy. [8] With the inhibitions to educational change in mind, and with the charge of Drucker to recommend meaningful changes, the authors have sought to examine alternative futures, to forecast secondary educational processes for the year 2000, and to point out a path toward the achievement of the most desirable of the alternative futures in secondary education.
Reinforcing Views A literature search points out activities of other groups and individuals making studies of the future. The American Academy of Arts and Sciences created a Commission on the Year 2000, in 1965, and the first materials of the Commission's deliberations were published in Daedalus, the Journal of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Volume 96, N u m b e r 3, Summer 1967. This document is highly recommended as a source of information concerning the future, specifically the year 2000, over a wide spectrum of disciplines. The discussion immediately following is based on information contained in Daedalus. lO
140
F . M . J E N K I N S A N D H. W. L A N F O R D
Rogers has observed[9] that educators seem to show greater resistance to change than does any other institutional group. He admits to the possibility that education will continue as it is--concerned only with words, symbols, rational concepts based on the authoritative role of the teacher, but perhaps further dehumanized by teaching machines, computerized knowledge and increased use of tests and examinations, because of the educator's resistance to change. Rogers believes that changes will occur and states that schools will be greatly deemphasized in favor of a much broader, thoughtfully devised environment for learning, where the experiences of the student will be challenging, rewarding, affirmative, and pleasurable. Rogers states the teacher will be replaced by a facilitator, skilled in stimulating individual and group initiative in learning, skilled in facilitating discussions-in-depth of the meaning to the student of what is being learned, skilled in fostering creativity, and skilled in providing the resources for learning.
EARNED DEGREES CONFERRED BY LEVEL OF DEGREE 1940 to 1967
EXTRAPOLATED TO 2 0 0 0
TOTAL NUMBER
/ / BACHELOR AND FIRST PROFESSIONAL DEGREES / / /
/
/ /
J
1,000,000. ///. / /
•
/
f#
/
/
500,000. 0
MASTER OR SECOND/ LEVEL DEGREE /
!
O
0
/
,
O0
/
!
o
I
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10,0001940
I
!
1950
1960
!
1970 YEAR
'
1980
, 1990
2000
Fig. I. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports. Trend extrapolation of plotted data points by authors.
CURRICULA AND METHODOLOGIES
141
The Problem The student population growth trend is intensified by the fact that in the year 2000 almost everyone will have the educational opportunities available to the "upper classes" of the past. Drucker has pointed out the fact[10] that with equivalent education individuals will expect equivalent opportunities. Since only a small percentage of the total work force can expect senior level positions, education must be prepared to train already-educated people to effectively relate to their jobs, their society, and their individual drives. This implies the need for more "second-career" training and for training in the satisfying use of leisure time. The problem is further exacerbated by sheer numbers of persons who will require/ desire further training. Figure 1 shows a linear increase of students in higher education pursuits by the year 2000. Figure 2 shows the projected numbers of individuals who will be in the secondary education program (for thefirst time, not considering "re-training" needs) in the year 2000. The number of diploma and other degree students is increasing yearly in every category, i.e., the High School, Bachelors, Masters, and Doctoral level. By the year 2000 there will be in excess of 2 million of the doctoral level degree and some 5 millions at the Master and Bachelor level degrees conferred as compared presently to some 20,000 doctoral degrees and some 700,000 Bachelor and Masters level degrees. PUBLIC SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AND POPULATION PROJECTED TO THE YEAR 2 0 0 0,.,...-. o0OO,,.,
100 M I LLION'
o
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-
°
o o ..~ o TOTAL POPULATION I'~" (EXCLUDING ARMED FORCES} / . ~ " OVERSEAS ~.~,.
l{ I l l i l l l l
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0.1 MILLION' --
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1880
0
I
1900
19120
191ZlO
' 1960
' 1980
2000
Fig. 2. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports. Trend extrapolation of plotted data points by authors.
142
F.M. JENKINS AND H. W. LANFORD
Eldredge has found[ll] that students appear to learn faster with more enthusiasm if they participate very actively in producing knowledge rather than reading about the process. Eldredge is concerned with college students (and graduate students) in his research. The authors have found the same observation true of secondary education students. The authors are as certain that innovative techniques such as discussed in "The Forecast" section of this article will bring about the same joy of participation in secondary education learning experiences as that found in higher education by Eldredge. Premises for the Forecasting Effort It is a premise of this projection that the population increase of the United States will continue to increase as it has in the period 1930-1967, giving a trend following a geometric straight-line, and that this rate of increase will continue through the year 2000. The authors have admittedly violated good forecasting practices by linearly extrapolating some trends further into the future than historical information shown here permits. This action is defended by the allegation that the importance of this problem justifies the projection to the year 2000 in order to show that plans can and should be made to overcome the problem and to get some "educated estimate" of the size and composition of the group under consideration. A review of historical data examined but not reported here supports the projection. The authors ask tolerance of this transgression. Another premise is that secondary educational methodologies and curricula objectives for the year 2000 can be identified and programs prepared that will achieve the desired objectives. The authors accept Linstone's findings (or projections) of increased time available to adults for leisure activities (and for the same reasons: shorter work weeks and earlier retirement). This premise then confirms the need for increased adult education/ retraining programs. The university "system" will be unable to cope with the very large numbers of adults seeking additional education or retraining programs. The secondary educational system must then be prepared to meet this increased demand. The "leisure" class may approximate sixty percent of the total population. It is further assumed that the Federal government will continue to play an everincreasing role of importance (and control) in the field of education by the allocation of funds, by the leadership provided for the development of plans, by the training of supervisory personnel, and by participation in planning boards. The authors forecast a continuing strengthening of the resources and role of the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Through the fund allocation role, and the role of participation in planning boards and supervisory training programs, the Federal government will devise and implement standards of education at each level. It is assumed that industry will continue its interest and participation in the vocational and professional training of its employees. Perhaps the most controversial assumption to be made is that as a society we will awaken to our educational/retraining obligations and will actually provide the resources necessary to implement a successful program. The Forecast A few general predictions will be made before the more specific predictions of a secondary education program.
CURRICULA AND METHODOLOGIES
143
To assure continued industry attention and participation, the Federal government will adopt some program of tax credit or tax relief for industries supporting the educational program. In fact, it appears within the realm of possibility that the funding of a national education program could equal or surpass the funding allocated to national recreation and national defense.[12] Adult educational programs will be integrated, and will be administered by local, district, regional, and national adult educational centers with objectives and performance standards specified at each level. "Blue-collar" workers will have the opportunity to devote as much as thirty percent (30 ~o) of"job time" to continue educational/retraining pursuits. Managerial personnel will have the opportunity to devote as much as fifty percent (50 ~) of"job time" to the advancement of educational and management-training objectives. Federal funds will be available to build the necessary physical facilities, to train and pay the staff, and to provide support for research and application of innovative teaching aids and equipment needed to implement secondary educational program of the year 2000. The more specific projections are as follows. The national secondary education program will come under the jurisdiction of"centers" at the national level, the regional level, the district level, and the local level. Learning centers will be headed by a Master Teacher, a Pedagogus, or Facilitator (all names for the same individual). Staff teachers will make use of rating and analysis "machines", the student will be provided with a "learning machine" and a set of programmed instructions. All learning centers will be equivalent in level of achievement expected, staff, facilities, and standards of performance expected. The child of the year 2000 will begin school at the age of 18 months to 2 years. Teaching aides will instruct these children in the subject areas of sensitivity, creativity, logic, and ethics. General supervision only will be exercised, with the objective being the maximum development of the child. Initial guidance will be given the child but decisions as to areas of effort of work and other fields of interest will be released to the child as "growth" allows. Predetermined norms of achievement will be developed and progress of the individual child continuously compared with the desired profile. This period of instruction will be according to national standards. This pre-elementary training will continue through ages three, four, and five years with increasing emphasis being placed in the child for responsibility for decisions. An objective of the elementary program is the achievement level by which the child makes fifty percent or more of the decisions affecting his or her educational progress. After the attainment of age 5 and this achievement level, progress or advancement will be on the basis of individual development or progress and not on the basis of age. Although age will no longer be the criteria of achievement it is expected that the Elementary III phase will be composed of six years and Elementary IV composed of children of chronological age seven years who have shown progressively increasing ability to assume responsibility for decisions concerning individual development. During Elementary IV the children showing expected achievement levels will continue academic pursuits. Children not meeting expected achievement levels will be counseled into a vocational field, if not there already by choice. Emphasis will be on individual responsibility for decision-making in both the "professional" area and the "vocational" area. On the basis of individual achievement students in both fields will continue to progress, at a pace set by the student, through the curricula for the various programs, with increasing emphasis
144
F . M . J E N K I N S A N D H. W. L A N F O R D
being placed on the individual for decisions. The student will gradually assume full responsibility for the development of his/her specific program to meet his/her predetermined objectives. Opportunities will exist at periodic intervals for the "vocational" student to return to the "professional" area when sufficient development and desire manifest themselves. A student in the professional area will be given the freedom of choice if he or she expresses a preference for the "vocational" area. Data collection, data storage, and data retrieval "machines" will be available to the developing student. Rogers has forecast that in our educational system of the future, the most important learnings will be both personal and interpersonal.[13] This learning environment is not intended as a for living, it is an in living. Rogers foresees each child developing confidence in his own ability to learn (under guidance of a facilitator) and each child will be rewarded for learning at his own pace. Each child will learn that he is a person of worth, having unique and worthwhile capacities. He will learn how to be himself in a group--to listen, but also to speak, to learn about himself, and also to confront and give feedback to others. He will, in short, learn to be an individual, not a faceless conformist. Figure 3 attempts to graphically portray the progression of the child from ages 18 months to 2 years through the period of development at which the child is directed into the "professional" field or the vocational field.
preparation
experience
GUIDANCE AND COUI~ELLIN6 DECISION POINTS GUIDANCE AND COUNSELLING ANy CHILD NOT REACHIN6 THE 50 fo 60 pI~ ¢19¢r LEVELS OF FRI~DQM AT THE AGE B A ~ 6 to 8 WILL BE REDIRECTED I N ~ VOCATIONAL LINES. P4 CHILDREN CONSIDERED MORE SUITABLE FOR PROFESSIONAL~ ~ WOJLD BE P/ CHILDREN AND F2 CHILDREN M ~ SUITABLE R ~ TRADE W ~ ~ VI~ULD FI CHILDREN. F~ 041LDREN WOULD FIT MORE INTO TECHNICAL TRADES OPERATIONS WHERE/~ F2 CHILOREN WOULD ARPEAR MOIRE TRADE-ORIENTED.
6 to 8 yEARS BAND FOR REASSIGNMENT OF THE CHILD FOR CONTINUING WORKACADEMIC/~LLY OR VOCATIONALLY lOOt ALL TO THE LEFT OF THE AREA ABCD AND
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/ IN ACADEMICAND/
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CURRICULA AND METHODOLOGIES
145
Summary and Conclusions By the year 2000 the equivalent of the present high school education will be completed by the time the student is twelve years of age. The equivalent of the present Bachelor's degree will be obtained by age fourteen, the equivalent of the present Master's degree by age fifteen and the equivalent of the present doctoral degree by age seventeen. There will be newly created fields of learning in which a degree senior to the present doctoral degree will be awarded. A student may complete requirements for such a degree by age twenty. Learning will be a self-motivated procedure with early guidance by a facilitator. Formal instruction will begin at an early age (ages 18 months to 2 years) and will progress in accordance with the rate of progress determined by the student. Measurement of growth and progress will be against national norms or standards. The student will be encouraged to assume responsibility for decisions at a very early age. Secondary school curriculum will consist of the scientific method, biology, science and technology, communicative theory, outline of history, social psychology, and law. Mechanical and computerized teaching devices will be in widespread use. The rate of the programmed instruction will be controlled by the individual student. The secondary educational objective will be the provision of the background necessary to allow the vocational and professional student to be prepared for entry into the university, or advanced vocational training program by the time the student has reached the age of 12 years. Each individual may expect to spend 20 years of his or her life in the primary career field. At about age 40, the individual may expect to enter a re-training program to prepare him or her for a "second" career. Recommendations The establishment of a permanent office, staffed by a small number of highly-qualified educators, to develop more complete secondary-educational objectives and curricula to meet these objectives is recommended at this time. This "Office of Future Educational Requirements" should submit an annual report on innovations in secondary education and should prepare a "futures study" for secondary education at 5 year intervals. These "futures studies" are seen as forecasts of secondary education procedures and curriculum requirements of the year 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, etc. This office might well come under the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. The authors entered this research project to determine the feasibility of such a study. Having established the fact that such a projection of secondary education methodologies and curricula is feasible, a secondary objective becomes that of obtaining feedback information from interested readers to reinforce the conclusions (or to stimulate additional research). The authors feel that much of the discussion may prove to be controversial. Opinions are earnestly solicited. References 1 Linstone, H. A., TechnologicalForecasting, 1, (No. 3, March 1970), 263-281. 2 Bell, Daniel, "The Measurement of Knowledge and Technology", Indicators of Social Change, E. B. Sheldon and W. E. Moore, eds. Russell Sage Foundation, New York, 1968, 145-246. 30ettinger, Anthony G., Run, Computer, Run; The Mythology of Educational Innovations, Harvard University Press 1969, 42-43. 4 Hirsch, W. Z., "Education and the Future", Mankind2000, R. Jungk and J. Galtung, eds., Allen and Unwin, London, 1969, 215-216. 5 ibid, 218.
146
F.M. JENKINS AND H. W. LANFORD
Drucker, P. F., Landmarks of Tomorrow, Harper and Row, Publishers, N.Y., 1957, 111-I 13. ibid, ll7. ibid, 124. Rogers, Carl R.,Journal of Applied Behavioral Science, 4, (July/August/September, 1968), 265-275. Drucker, op cit, 121. EIdredge, H. Wentworth, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2, (Number 2, 1970), 133-148. 12 Health, Education and Social Welfare, Urban Development and GNP, Gross Expenditures for Individual Goals, Table I-Gross Expenditures for Individual Goals, 1962-1975, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Publ. Washington, D.C., 1965. 13 Rogers, Carl R., op cit, 265-280. 6 7 8 9 l0 11
April 5, 1971