A global agenda for clean air

will in turn reduce emissions. Equally important, the savings that result from not building power plants because demand has been cut by efficiency can more than offset the additional cost of installing scrubbers at existing plants.1 Similar rethinking can help reduce This article argues that unacceptably high levels of air pollution around the world car emissions. To date, modifying car suggest that the strategies employed to date to combat air pollution have been engines and installing catalytic converinadequate. Technological solutions alone are not sufficient and must be sup- ters have been the primary strategies plemented with deeper efforts to reorient energy, transportation and industrial employed to lower harmful emissions. structures towards pollution prevention. This will mean improving energy A l t h o u g h catalytic converters are efficiency, reducing reliance on the automobile for transportation and minimizing sorely needed in countries that do not the production of toxic by-products in industrial production. The author surveys require them - they reduce hydrocarcurrent anti-pollution efforts and proposes a variety of economic incentives and bon emissions by an average of 87%, other policy measures that will help to bring about the necessary changes. carbon monoxide by an average of 85%, and nitrogen oxides by 62% over the life of a vehicle - they alone Keywords: Pollution; Energy; Transportation are not sufficient. Expanding car fleets The world's first clean air act may at best is because they have focused on are overwhelming the good they do, have been a 1306 proclamation by specific measures to combat individual even in countries that have mandated King Edward I of England banning pollutants rather than addressing the their use. 2 the burning of 'sea coles' (chunks of underlying societal structures that give Reducing air pollution in cities is coal found along the seashore) by rise to the problem in the first place. likely to require a major shift away London craftsmen. Almost seven cen- Turning the corner on air pollution from automobiles as the cornerstone turies later the problem is far from requires moving beyond patchwork, of urban transportation systems. As solved all over the world. Indeed, air end-of-the-pipe approaches to con- congestion slows traffic to a crawl in pollution has proven so intractable a front pollution at its sources. This will many cities, driving to work is becomphenomenon that a book could be mean reorienting energy, transporta- ing unattractive anyway. Convenient written about the history of efforts to tion and industrial structures towards public transportation, car pooling and combat it. prevention. measures that facilitate bicycle comAs one air pollution challenge has muting are the cheapest, most effecbeen met, a new one has frequently tive, ways for metropolitan areas to Reducing emissions emerged to take its place. Even some proceed. of the solutions have become part of Scrubbers, nitrogen oxides control Driving restrictions already exist in the problem: the tall smokestacks t e c h n o l o g i e s , a n d new c l e a n e r - many of the world's cities. For exambuilt in the 1960s and 1970s to disperse burning coal technologies can all re- ple, Florence has turned its downtown emissions from huge coal-burning duce emissions dramatically, but they area into a pedestrian mall during power plants became conduits to the are not the ultimate solutions. For daylight hours. Budapest bans motor upper atmosphere for the pollutants one, they can create environmental traffic from all but two streets in the that form acid rain. problems of their own, such as the downtown area during particularly Recently, global warming has arisen need to dispose of scrubber ash, a polluted spells. In Mexico City and as a main focus of environmental con- hazardous waste. Second, they do lit- Santiago, one-fifth of all vehicles are cern, sometimes conveying the mis- tle if anything to reduce carbon diox- kept off the streets each weekday leading impression that air pollution is ide (CO2) emissions, so make no signi- based on their licence-plate numbers. 3 yesterday's problem. But traditional ficant contribution to slowing global Improving the fuel efficiency of air pollutants and greenhouse gases warming. automobile fleets would also help restem largely from the burning of fossil For these reasons, technologies of duce air pollution. An analysis of 781 fuels in energy, transportation and this kind are best viewed as a bridge to car models by Chris Calwell of the industrial systems. Having common the day when energy-efficient societies Natural Resources Defense Council roots, air pollution and global warmare the n o r m and p o l l u t i o n - f r e e shows that the 50 most efficient emitsources such as solar, wind and water ted one-third less hydrocarbons than ing can also have common solutions. Unfortunately, policy makers persist power provide the bulk of the world's the average car and roughly half as much as the 50 least efficient ones. 4 in tackling them in isolation, which electricity. runs the risk of lessening one set of Improving energy efficiency is a As with power plant and auto emisclean air priority. Such measures as sions, efforts to control airborne toxic problems while exacerbating the more efficient refrigerators and light- chemicals will be most successful if other. The reason efforts to clear the air ing can markedly, and cost effectively, they focus on minimizing waste rather have only been marginally successful reduce electricity consumption, which than simply on controlling emissions.

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A global agenda for clean air

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The Congressional Office of Technology Assessment has concluded that it is technically and economically feasible for US industries to lower the production of toxic wastes and pollutants by up to 50% within the next few years. Similar possibilities exist in other countries. 5

A political progress report In much of the world, air pollution is now squarely on the public policy agenda. This is a promising sign. Unfortunately, the public's desire for clean air has not yet been matched with the political leadership necessary to provide it. Recent developments at the national and international levels, though constituting steps forward, remain inadequate to the task. In the US, for example, Congress is on the brink of adopting major amendments to the Clean Air Act of 1970 that will cut in half the emissions that cause acid rain, tighten emissions standards for automobiles significantly, and require much stricter control of toxic air pollutants. Almost any legislation would be an improvement. Twenty years after the Act became law, 487 counties still are not in compliance. But, the proposed legislation fails to address the problem at a fundemental level by not encouraging energy efficiency, waste reduction, and a revamping of transportation systems and urban designs. 6 Los Angeles - with the worst air quality in the US - has been one of the first regions in the world to really understand that lasting change will not come through mere tinkering. Under a bold new air quality plan embracing the entire region, the city government will discourage automobile use, boost public transportation, and control household and industrial activities that contribute to smog. 7 Because air pollution crosses borders with i m p u n i t y , i n t e r n a t i o n a l cooperation on reducing emissions is essential. The past few years have seen important incremental advances in international forums. Under the auspices of the UN Economic Commission for Europe, agreements to reduce emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides have been

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reached. The SO2 protocol, adopted in July 1985, calls for a 30% reduction in emissions or their transboundary flows from 1980 levels by 1993. The nitrogen oxides accord, signed in November 1988, calls for a freeze on emissions at 1987 levels in 1994, as well as further discussions beginning in 1996 aimed at actual reductions. 8 A November 1988 directive by the European Economic Community (EEC) represents a binding commitment by the members to reduce acid rain-causing emissions significantly. The directive will lower communitywide emissions of SO2 from existing power plants by a total of 57% from 1980 levels by 2003, and of nitrogen oxides by 30% by 1998. 9 The European Community, though quicker than the US to cut back sharply on the emissions that cause acid rain, has been slower to tackle urban air quality. This finally changed in June 1989, when the EEC Council of E n v i r o n m e n t a l Ministers e n d e d a nearly four-year debate and approved new standards for small cars. These will be as tough as those now in effect in US. 1°

costs of burning fossil fuels into the power planning process is a crucial second step. In the US the State of New York is pioneering this approach. Under an innovative programme, a competitive market is being set up whereby independent power producers must bid against each other for p o w e r supply contracts. Suppliers planning to burn fossil fuels are required to add nearly one cent/KWh to their bids to account for air pollution, and an additional half cent/KWh to a c c o u n t for o t h e r e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o s t s . 12

An agenda for clean air As we enter the 1990s, air pollution policy around the world is in flux. Though numerous technologies and strategies are available to reduce emissions, their piecemeal adoption has led to overall failure in the battle for clean air. To clear the air, it will be necessary to supplement traditional air pollution strategies with innovative policies that encourage energy efficiency and non-polluting, renewable energy sources, minimize dependence on the automobile and reduce the production of toxic wastes. Developing a more environmentally benign energy system depends critically on correcting market imperfections. The first step is to ensure that subsidies are removed so that the cost of energy reflects its true value, providing an incentive to use less. In PR China, for example, energy efficiency has improved an average of 3.7% annually since the country's economic reform programme began in 1979.11 Incorporating the environmental

Taxing emissions also can serve as a strong disincentive to pollute. Swedish officials have drafted proposals that would tax sulphur, nitrogen oxides and CO2 emissions. If the proposed plan is approved, by the end of the decade it would reduce SO2 emissions by 7% from their 1987 level, nitrogen oxides by 8%, and CO2 from 9 17% .13 New t r a n s p o r t a t i o n policies can help to lessen society's dependence on automobiles - especially the most polluting and fuel-inefficient varieties. In addition to restricting the entry of cars into downtown areas, municipal governments can invest more in efficient public transportation systems and help commuters organize car pools to keep vehicles off the road. Developing policies to ensure that drivers pay the full cost of using their cars could also curb automobile dependence. Taxing or eliminating free parking benefits, collecting tolls or fees for road use, and imposing hefty gasoline and automobile sales taxes are all means to this end. To encourage the manufacture and sale of less-polluting cars, governments could consider an emissionspegged sales tax. Analysts at the Lawrence B e r k e l e y L a b o r a t o r y in Berkeley, CA, have suggested a revolving fund that would tax new highemission cars, and subsidize cleaner ones. Consumer demand would then spur the industry to produce lesspolluting cars. 14 Because emissions of toxic chemicals into the air are commonly less strongly regulated than those onto land or into water, stricter controls on them are sorely needed. Over the long

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Communication~Climate research review term, this will serve as an incentive to reduce waste: as disposal becomes more difficult and expensive, waste reduction and recycling become increasingly attractive. Certain other economic incentives could also help. For example, a 'deposit-refund' system might be implemented whereby industries are taxed on the purchase of hazardous inputs, but given a refund for wastes produced from them that are recovered or recycled. 15 While the means are available to clear the air, it will be a difficult task. In the West, powerful businesses such as car manufacturers and electric utilities, will strongly resist measures that they fear will cost them money. In Eastern Europe, the U S S R and the developing world, extreme economic problems, coupled with shortages of hard currency, mean that money for pollution prevention and control is scarce. On the promising side, faced with ever-mounting costs to human health and the environment, people on every continent are beginning to look at pollution prevention through a different economic lens. Rather than a financial burden, they are seeing that it is a sound investment. The old notion that pollution is the price of progress seems finally to be becoming a relic of the past. Hilary F. French The Worldwatch Institute Washington, DC, USA ~Howard S. Geller, Testimony, Hearings on Acid Rain Control Proposals, Subcommittee on Health and the Environment, Committee on Energy and Commerce, US House of Representatives, Washington, DC, 6 April 1989. For a more complete analysis see Howard S. Geller et al, Acid Rain and Electricity Conservation, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy/Energy Conservation Coalition, Washington, DC, 1987. 2Michael Renner, Rethinking the Role of the Automobile, Worldwatch Paper 84, Worldwatch Institute, Washington, DC, June 1988. 3Clyde Haberman, qs it over then? City closes its heart to the car', New York Times, 10 October 1988; 'Central Budapest car ban seeks to curb air pollution', Reuters, 30 March 1988; Michael P. Walsh, transportation consultant, private communication, 10 December 1989; 'Smogfilled Santiago to clean-up', Multinational

Environmental Outlook, 2 May 1989; porter, June 1989; 'Common Market finally O'seun Ogunseitan, 'Wednesday is odd adopts tight vehicle standards', Car Lines, day in Lagos', New Internationalist, March Michael P. Walsh, Arlington, VA, June 1989. 1989. 11China figure from William U. Chandler, 4Chris Calwell, 'Fuel economy/emissions interactions in automobiles', Testimony, Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories, State of California Energy Resources Con- Washington, DC, private communication, servation and Development Commission 31 August 1989. For more information on Hearing on 1989 Fuels Report, 12 June energy pricing reform and its impact on 1989. Calwell also found that the 50 most energy efficiency see William U. Chandler, efficient models had 24% lower carbon The Changing Role of the Market in monoxide emissions than the average car National Economies, Worldwatch Paper and 35% lower emissions than the 50 least 72, Worldwatch Institute, Washington, efficient ones. He found no correlation DC, September 1986 and Mark Kosmo, with nitrogen oxides, stating that 'the only Money to Burn? The High Costs of Energy conclusion that can be safely drawn about Subsidies, World Resources Institute, NOx is that raising or lowering fuel eco- Washington, DC, 1987. nomy is not likely to have a statistically 12Larry DeWitt, New York Public Service significant impact on NOx emissions'. For Commission, private communication, 13 more information, see Chris Calwell, 'The October 1989; New York State Departnear-term potential for simultaneous im- ment of Public Service, 'Consideration of provements in the fuel efficiency and emis- environmental externalities in competitive sions of US automobiles', master's thesis, bidding programs of Orange and Rockland Energy and Resources Group, University utilities', unpublished paper, undated; of California, Berkeley, June 1989. New York State Department of Public 5US Office of Technology Assessment Service, 'Consideration of environmental (OTA), From Pollution to Prevention: A externalities in competitive bidding progProgress Report on Waste Reduction, US rams to acquire future electric capacity needs of Niagara Mohawk Power CorporaGovernment Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1987; Sandra Postel, Defusing the tion', unpublished paper, undated; Sury N. Toxics Threat: Controlling Pesticides and Putta, 'Competition in electric generation Industrial Waste, Woridwatch Paper 79, environmental externalities', New York Worldwatch Institute, Washington, DC, State Department of Public Service, Albany, NY, unpublished paper, undated. September 1987. 6Number of counties not in compliance ~3Environmental Charge Commission, with Clean Air Act from American Lung Economic Instruments in Environmental Association, Breath in Danger, New York, Policy." Energy and Traffic, Stockholm, Sweden, 1989. Percentage reductions update of January 1989. 7South Coast Air Quality Management figured from absolute reduction numbers District, Air Quality Management Plan: given in Economic Instruments and 1987 South Coast Air Basin, El Monte, CA, emissions figures from ECE, 'Annual reMarch 1989. view of strategies and policies for air pollu8United Nations Economic Commission tion abatement', draft, 26 September 1989. for Europe (ECE), 'Acid rain: protocol on 14Deborah Gordon and Leo Levenson, emissions enters into force', press release, Drive + A Proposal for California to Use Geneva, 25 August 1987; '25 ECE mem- Consumer Fees and Rebates to Reduce New bers sign protocol to limit emissions of Motor Vehicle Emissions and Fuel Connitrogen oxides', International Environ- sumption, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, ment Reporter, November 1988. See also Berkeley, CA, 1989. Peter H. Sand, 'Air pollution in Europe: tSDebbie Sheiman, Natural Resources Deinternational policy responses', Environ- fense Council, Washington, DC, private ment, December 1987. communication, 6 November 1989; Project 9European Economic Community Direc- "88, sponsored by Senators Timothy E. tive 88-609, 24 November 1988. Wirth and John Heinz, Harnessing Market 1°'European Community environment Forces to Protect Our Environment: Initiaministers agree on new emission levels for tives for the New President, Washington, small cars', International Environment Re- DC, 1988.

Climate research review The publication of a summary of the Scientific Working Group report to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has led to reports of 'the week that definitively ended scientific argument over global

ENERGY POLICY July/August 1990

warming'. 1 Policy makers must be wondering what new discoveries the report can contain to have had such a dramatic effect. The answer is none. Most of the IPCC working group's findings have

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