- Email: [email protected]
A microsimulation model for evaluating the environmental impact of alternative-fuel vehicles
56
Recent doctorat dissertation
expressway section. The main feature of the evaluation is the utilization of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the following environmental attributes: noise pollution, air pollution, water pollution, endangered species habitat disruption, wildlife habitat disruption, and displacement of houses by the future right-of-way of the new facility. AHP, a multicriteria decision making process created by Thomas Saaty in 1972, is used as a decision-making methodology to select the best alternative.
A microsimulation model for evaluating the environmental impact of alternative-fuel vehicles. Kazimi, Camilla, Ph.D. University of California, Irvine, 1995. 207 pp. Chair: David Brownstone Order Number DA9600329 This dissertation addresses the potential market penetration and environmental impacts of alternative-fuel vehicles (AFVs) through the use of a dynamic microsimulation model. In the first part of the dissertation, the author develops demographic models which are used to simulate household changes. They extend previous models in three ways: by using continuous time hazard models, by allowing for inter-dependencies across the various types of change that a household may undergo, and by including several important explanatory variables such as race, gender, income, education, employment status, and indicators of previous demographic changes. The microsimulation model is then run under several different assumptions about the availability of alternativefuel vehicles, vehicle prices, operating characteristics, fuel prices, and fuel availability. For each run, the author determines total emissions for each vehicle using the forecasts of vehicles by vintage and fuel type, mileage estimates and emission factors. The author also looks at scenarios with different purchase price assumptions for electric vehicles, without the option of electric vehicles, and with different purchase price assumptions for compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles. Based on this comparison, the author finds that reducing the price of alternative-fuel vehicles does not necessarily lead to reductions in emissions. During the first few years, emission levels may actually increase if households trade off usage between a limitedrange alternative-fuel vehicle, and their second or third vehicle, which is typically an older gasoline vehicle. The option of electric vehicles leads to a definite and immediate improvement in emissions. The health benefits of those emission reductions are valued at between $40-$140 million.
Mode&g air pollution near arterial roads and highways. Shenouda, Deloor Abdel Shaheed, Ph.D. University of Wollongong (Australia), 1994. In this study, emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC) and
nitrogen oxides (NOx) from vehicles are modeled by considering the instantaneous power generated by each vehicle and modifying the expressions developed by Post et al., (1981). The emissions from both spark ignition (SI) and diesel vehicles are included. The model was used to estimate fuel consumption and emissions over a standard driving cycle. When used for spark ignition vehicles over a driving cycle, the influence of cold starts was quantified and allowance was made, in the case of equipped vehicles, for catalyst warm-up and for variations in catalyst efficiency. The model was validated against fuel consumption and emissions data obtained using ADR27 and ADR37 tests, and also against detailed, high time resolution analysis of ADR27 tests carried out by the Victoria EPA. The emissions model was used in conjunction with two pollution dispersion models, HIWAY and CALINE, to compare predicted concentrations with an experimental data-set consisting of measurements of the pollutants of C02, CO, HC, and NOx, and were made under a variety of traffic and meteorological conditions. The measurements were made at locations up to 60 meters downwind from the roadside and to heights of 10 meters above the ground. A video camera was used to record the traffic flow, speed and type (classified simply as domestic, light or heavy commercial). The emission rates of CO, HC, and NOx (at slope 00) for spark ignition and diesel vehicles produced by the power-based emissions model were found to be similar to those produced by the California EPA’s EMFAC7 emissions model.
A vehicle transactions choice model for use in forecasting vehicle demand for alternative-fuel vehicles conditioned on current vehicle holdings. Ren, Weiping, Ph.D. University of California, Irvine, 1995. 119 pp. Chair: David Brownstone Order Number DA!%00343 Forecasting the demand for alternative-fuel vehicles is critical component of energy policy. The author develops a new conditional logit model where the choice alternatives are vehicle transactions rather than vehicle holdings. This conditional transaction model is closer to the true decision process of purchasing a vehicle than are previous vehicle demand models. This model is designed to be incorporated into a dynamic microsimulation submodel of a model system designed to simulate the dynamics of the new vehicle adoption process and to produce a separate forecast for each period. The mode1 uses both vehicle purchase information and vehicle holding information and forecasts demand for stated preference (SP) vehicles conditioned on the revealed preference (RP) vehicle holdings. Forecasting SP vehicle choices by conditioning on RP vehicle holdings can also capture some heterogeneity between households and avoid potential bias relative to vehicle holding models. Based on one scenario for vehicle technology in 1998, a preliminary
Recent doctorat dissertation
expressway section. The main feature of the evaluation is the utilization of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the following environmental attributes: noise pollution, air pollution, water pollution, endangered species habitat disruption, wildlife habitat disruption, and displacement of houses by the future right-of-way of the new facility. AHP, a multicriteria decision making process created by Thomas Saaty in 1972, is used as a decision-making methodology to select the best alternative.
A microsimulation model for evaluating the environmental impact of alternative-fuel vehicles. Kazimi, Camilla, Ph.D. University of California, Irvine, 1995. 207 pp. Chair: David Brownstone Order Number DA9600329 This dissertation addresses the potential market penetration and environmental impacts of alternative-fuel vehicles (AFVs) through the use of a dynamic microsimulation model. In the first part of the dissertation, the author develops demographic models which are used to simulate household changes. They extend previous models in three ways: by using continuous time hazard models, by allowing for inter-dependencies across the various types of change that a household may undergo, and by including several important explanatory variables such as race, gender, income, education, employment status, and indicators of previous demographic changes. The microsimulation model is then run under several different assumptions about the availability of alternativefuel vehicles, vehicle prices, operating characteristics, fuel prices, and fuel availability. For each run, the author determines total emissions for each vehicle using the forecasts of vehicles by vintage and fuel type, mileage estimates and emission factors. The author also looks at scenarios with different purchase price assumptions for electric vehicles, without the option of electric vehicles, and with different purchase price assumptions for compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles. Based on this comparison, the author finds that reducing the price of alternative-fuel vehicles does not necessarily lead to reductions in emissions. During the first few years, emission levels may actually increase if households trade off usage between a limitedrange alternative-fuel vehicle, and their second or third vehicle, which is typically an older gasoline vehicle. The option of electric vehicles leads to a definite and immediate improvement in emissions. The health benefits of those emission reductions are valued at between $40-$140 million.
Mode&g air pollution near arterial roads and highways. Shenouda, Deloor Abdel Shaheed, Ph.D. University of Wollongong (Australia), 1994. In this study, emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC) and
nitrogen oxides (NOx) from vehicles are modeled by considering the instantaneous power generated by each vehicle and modifying the expressions developed by Post et al., (1981). The emissions from both spark ignition (SI) and diesel vehicles are included. The model was used to estimate fuel consumption and emissions over a standard driving cycle. When used for spark ignition vehicles over a driving cycle, the influence of cold starts was quantified and allowance was made, in the case of equipped vehicles, for catalyst warm-up and for variations in catalyst efficiency. The model was validated against fuel consumption and emissions data obtained using ADR27 and ADR37 tests, and also against detailed, high time resolution analysis of ADR27 tests carried out by the Victoria EPA. The emissions model was used in conjunction with two pollution dispersion models, HIWAY and CALINE, to compare predicted concentrations with an experimental data-set consisting of measurements of the pollutants of C02, CO, HC, and NOx, and were made under a variety of traffic and meteorological conditions. The measurements were made at locations up to 60 meters downwind from the roadside and to heights of 10 meters above the ground. A video camera was used to record the traffic flow, speed and type (classified simply as domestic, light or heavy commercial). The emission rates of CO, HC, and NOx (at slope 00) for spark ignition and diesel vehicles produced by the power-based emissions model were found to be similar to those produced by the California EPA’s EMFAC7 emissions model.
A vehicle transactions choice model for use in forecasting vehicle demand for alternative-fuel vehicles conditioned on current vehicle holdings. Ren, Weiping, Ph.D. University of California, Irvine, 1995. 119 pp. Chair: David Brownstone Order Number DA!%00343 Forecasting the demand for alternative-fuel vehicles is critical component of energy policy. The author develops a new conditional logit model where the choice alternatives are vehicle transactions rather than vehicle holdings. This conditional transaction model is closer to the true decision process of purchasing a vehicle than are previous vehicle demand models. This model is designed to be incorporated into a dynamic microsimulation submodel of a model system designed to simulate the dynamics of the new vehicle adoption process and to produce a separate forecast for each period. The mode1 uses both vehicle purchase information and vehicle holding information and forecasts demand for stated preference (SP) vehicles conditioned on the revealed preference (RP) vehicle holdings. Forecasting SP vehicle choices by conditioning on RP vehicle holdings can also capture some heterogeneity between households and avoid potential bias relative to vehicle holding models. Based on one scenario for vehicle technology in 1998, a preliminary