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A new look at roles of the cryosphere in sustainable development
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ScienceDirect Advances in Climate Change Research 10 (2019) 124e131 www.keaipublishing.com/en/journals/accr/
A new look at roles of the cryosphere in sustainable development WANG Xiaoming a,*, LIU Shi-Wei a,b, ZHANG Jing-Lin a,b a
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou, 730000, China b College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China Received 18 October 2018; revised 23 April 2019; accepted 5 June 2019 Available online 13 June 2019
Abstract While the cryosphere may bring in adverse impacts on natural and built environment, it may also provide benefits resulting from cryosphere services. By looking into the effect of the cryosphere on human-being, the study develops a unified approach in the analysis of cryospheric risks and services, with one focusing on the adverse impacts by cryospheric hazards and another emphasizing on the benefits that people can obtain from the natural capitals in the cryosphere. Meanwhile, climate change could further alter and complicate the roles of the cryosphere, not only by the changes in risks to cryospheric hazards, but also the changes in services that could potentially add more risks. The study further proposed a risk-based approach for the development of climate adaptation in the cryosphere. The approach essentially takes options to reduce exposure and vulnerability of societies to cryospheric hazards, and to better manage natural capitals and demands together with enhancing utility of the cryosphere, so as to maintain the benefit of cryosphere services in a sustainable way. The study further addresses the role of cryosphere services in strengthening sustainable development in terms of its relation with the sustainable development goals (SDGs), and provides a preliminary results on how the services contributes to SDGs. Overall, the approach developed in this study creates a new way to comprehensively assess the effect of cryosphere changes on our society and identify measures to maximize the benefit while minimizing the risk in relation to the cryosphere. Keywords: Cryosphere; Cryospheric science; Cryosphere service; Cryosphere change; Climate change impact; Climate change adaptation; Risk management; Sustainable development
1. Introduction The cryosphere is a sphere on the Earth's surface with a certain thickness, where temperature is continuously distributed below the freezing point. It can be divided into continental, marine and aerial cryosphere, consisting of glaciers, ice sheets, frozen ground, snow, sea ice, and so on (Qin et al., 2018). It is well known that the cryosphere is very sensitive to climate change, and therefore considered as a barometer of climate change (Qin et al., 2006; Koven et al., 2013; and * Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (WANG X.). Peer review under responsibility of National Climate Center (China Meteorological Administration).
Kraaijenbrink et al., 2017). A study showed that a global temperature rise of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels would lead to 36% loss of glacier ice mass in high mountains of Asia (Kraaijenbrink et al., 2017). Changes in the cryosphere may further affect other spheres. It is understood that glaciers may contribute to sea-level rise equivalent to 79 mm, 108 mm and 147 mm, for the climate change scenarios in relation to RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively (Huss and Hock, 2015). More studies done by Huss and Hock (2018) indicated, by 2100, one-third of largescale glacierized drainage basins might experience runoff decrease greater than 10% due to glacier mass loss, with the largest reduction in central Asia and the Andes. Potentially, it can considerably impact on the large-scale glacierized drainage basins that cover 26% of the global land surface
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2019.06.005 1674-9278/Copyright © 2019, National Climate Center (China Meteorological Administration). Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
WANG X. et al. / Advances in Climate Change Research 10 (2019) 124e131
outside Greenland and Antarctica and are populated by almost one-third of the world's population (Beniston and Diaz, 2003). On regional and local scales, the meltwater from the cryosphere is an important contributor in regulating runoff. The changes in the cryosphere cause an increase in runoff during spring and early summer, but significant decrease in July and August (Huss et al., 2010; Huss and Hock, 2018). This can lead to the cascading impacts on downstream system (Milner et al., 2017). The change in snow cover may also have a significant consequence adversely affecting other spheres. The global snow-covered area and mass have been declining over the past 30 years (Brown et al., 2000; Mudryk et al., 2017; Kunkel et al., 2016), causing considerable concerns of eventual reduction in water supply. It may then impact on agriculture and other socioeconomic activities in mountainous regions, such as hydropower generation (Beniston and Diaz, 2003), winter tourism (Ponspons et al., 2012; Steiger and Abegg, 2013; Gilaberte-Bu´rdalo et al., 2014), as well as ecosystems (Peng et al., 2010; Krajick, 2004; Wipf et al., 2009). It is found that the snow is melting earlier, causing a time shift in seasonal runoff (Brown et al., 2000; Kunkel et al., 2016). The shift can also be caused by the increase in rainfall and the decrease in snowfall as a result of warming climate producing more economic loss (Sturm et al., 2017). Additionally, frozen grounds can be altered by climate change through changes in heat exchange between soil and the overlying atmosphere (Wang et al., 2011). A permafrost loss can be in a wide range, i.e., 2%e66% for RCP2.6, 15%e87% for RCP4.5, and 30%e99% for RCP8.5 (Koven et al., 2013). This may lead to the release of CO2 and CH4 from frozen grounds to the atmosphere (Koven et al., 2011; Schaefer et al., 2011), and simultaneously impact on the alpine ecosystem (Wu et al., 2001; Walker et al., 2003). As illustrated above, cryosphere changes may lead to a various kind of impacts, mostly represented by the loss of services provided by the cryosphere (such as water supply). Alternatively, the loss can occur directly by cryospheric hazards, such as glacier lake outburst floods, glacial debris flow, wind-blown snow, avalanches, blizzards, freezing rain, freezeethaw hazards, and river and sea-ice hazards (Haeberli et al., 2016; Knight and Harrison, 2015; Deline et al., 2012). Having said that, climate change may cause changes in cryospheric hazards in terms of extent, intensity, frequency, and duration. With population growth and rapid economic development, the exposure of our societies to hazards is getting even higher, thus causing more risks. To maintain the prosperity in the cryosphere without compromising the ability of future generation to continue sharing its benefits even under climate change, it is required for us to adapt to the change, minimize risks and effectively utilize cryospheric resources by taking more sustainable approaches in our development. What are the key issues in the changing cryosphere and the roles of the cryosphere in sustainable development have to be clarified. The study is intended to do so from the fundamentals of risk-based approaches. It defines the pathways to explore risk reduction
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options, improve adaptive capacity, and better the benefit that can be provided to societies by the cryosphere. At the end, it is to understand how the cryosphere effectively and practically contribute to the sustainable development goals or SDGs. 2. Key issues in the cryosphere under climate change 2.1. Risks and services Similar to the ecosystem service framework developed in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (WRI, 2003), the cryosphere has functions of provisioning water supply, regulating climate, supporting ecosystem, and serving the cultural needs, from which human benefits. In the contrast, cryospheric hazards can generate adverse impacts on societies. In this regard, the cryosphere may bring in either positive or negative effects on our societies. As shown in Fig. 1, in interacting with other spheres, the cryosphere generates not only adverse hazards but also beneficial natural capitals affecting people or the anthroposphere where involves human activities and habitats. It brings in risks, but also provides services to societies at the same time. Changes in the cryosphere may either diminish or enhance the effects, resulting in changes of risks and services. In particular, the reduction in services may add more risks when demand in the anthroposphere would not be met. It should be pointed out that the framework gives a general approach in describing two aspects that could happen as results of the interactions amid multi-spheres. More specifics have to be given considering the great differences among various components of the cryosphere, such as mountain glaciers, sea ice, permafrost and snow cover, at different geographical locations, such as in Antarctica, the Arctic, Greenland and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau or the Third Pole. The keys are about to identify the hazards induced or natural capitals provided by the cryospheric components, for evaluation of cryospheric effects on human beings, adversely or beneficially. More specifically, the risk represents the potential impact of cryospheric hazards on a concerned object. The object can be assets, people, infrastructure, communities, environment, economy or broad society at all scales. Risk is generally expressed by multiplication of the consequence of a
Fig. 1. Issues about the effects of the cryosphere in interacting with other spheres on the anthroposphere.
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cryosphere change event and the likelihood of event's occurrence, or simply described by Risk ¼ Likelihood Consequence
ð1Þ
In more details related to the cryosphere, the event is usually considered as a hazard, such as glacier lake outburst floods (GLOF), avalanches, snowstorms, freezing and thawing, frost, permafrost erosions, coastal storm surges and so on. The consequence is considered as a result of the impacts of hazards, often in monetary or non-monetary terms of damages, loss or any form of adverse effects incurred by the concerned object, generally on social, economic and environmental aspect. In practice, concerning the object such as natural and built assets or population, the consequence is determined by both likelihood of exposure of the object to hazards as well as its vulnerability. In this regard, the risk can also be described by Risk ¼ Likelihood of Hazard Likelihood of Exposure Vulnerability ð2Þ where the likelihood of hazard or exposure can be 1 if they become certain. In general, risk is the combined effect of hazards, exposures, and vulnerability of the concerned object, as shown in Fig. 1. Vulnerability is deemed here to be the susceptibility of a concerned object and measured as a likely loss or any adverse effect in correspondence to a given degree of a hazard. For either built or natural assets, vulnerability can be described by the loss of functionality, serviceability or/and integrity given exposure to hazards, for example, infrastructure damage loss in association with GLOF. It is often represented in a monetary term, although other measures may be used. Vulnerability assessment is the key step to understand the performance of concerned objects subject to cryosphere changes. The degree of vulnerability is closely related to the capacity. The capacity is considered to be an inherent property and the ability to withstand or accommodate expected (future) adverse cryospheric hazard impacts without loss of its functionality, serviceability or integrity. For example, the ability of road pavement to resist freeze-thaw cycles without damage. In terms of the service as described in Fig. 1, in parallel to the risk, the service represents the potential benefit that human-being can obtain from the cryosphere. The benefit can be results from provisioning, regulating, supporting and culture provided by the cryosphere, as shown in Fig. 2, where the continental cryosphere consists of glacier (and ice sheet), frozen ground, snow cover, river and lake ice, the marine cryosphere has sea ice, ice shelf, iceberg and subsea permafrost, and the aerial cryosphere refers to solid water in the atmosphere. Meanwhile, in addition to four service categories given above, it was argued that the habitat service in the cryosphere should also be included, and it not only covers general habitat, but also biological living environment. In this study, we would rather keep the framework as described in Fig. 2, which is in alignment with the
Fig. 2. Aspects of cryosphere service.
ecosystem service framework by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (WRI, 2003). It should also be pointed out that a concept of “Nature's Contributions to People” was also proposed to address the concerns about conceptulised services framed as flows from ecosystems (Diaz et al., 2018), which is perceived to fail to take into account the effect of culture and other social aspects on the services. The effect would not be considered in this study. As illustrated in Fig. 1, the degree of the service can be represented by. Service ¼ Likelihood of Cryospheric Capital Likelihood of Demand Utility
ð3Þ
The cryospheric capital is a term for the stock of renewable and non-renewable natural resources in the cryosphere, particularly relevant to their components such as snow, frozen grounds and glaciers, which yields the service benefiting to societies. The cryospheric capital is inherently natural capital (others may include social, human, physical and financial capitals), but have power or functions to achieve benefits through its flow or services on the aspects of provisioning, regulating, supporting and culture. The likelihood of demand, in another term, can be deemed as the likelihood of cryospheric capitals to meet societies' demand. The utility measures the usefulness of cryospheric capitals, which societies can derive from the cryosphere services. Estimation of the risk and service in Eqs. (1)e(3) can be carried out by either qualitative or quantitative approaches. Quantitatively, the risk is often expressed as an expected loss considering uncertainties, with a reference to impact consequences of the hazards at categorically defined severity, such as a range from very frequent to very rare events. The impact consequence is normally related to economic loss, but it could also be described as broader socioeconomic and environmental loss at a scale from local to global level. On the contrary, the service can be qualitatively measured with a reference to the extent of cryospheric capital availability and the significance of utilities when societies rely on the capitals. Quantitatively, they can both be estimated based on probability theory.
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Interacting with other spheres, the cryosphere affects the anthroposphere, either generating benefit or causing loss to societies. It is generally the task for people to seek a solution to minimize risks and maximize services at the same time. Considering climate change, there would be more uncertainties. In addition to the changes of risks derived from the cryospheric hazards as a result of climate change, the change in services may also add more risks as there would be a likelihood that the demand would not be met any more. Adaptation should be considered to accommodate the change and reduce the increasing risk by climate change. Adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation is intended to moderate, avoid harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, adaptation by human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate change and its effects. Adaptation can be generally categorized into incremental and transformational adaptation. The incremental adaptation is the adaptation actions where the central aim is to maintain the essence and integrity of a system or process at a given scale. The transformational adaptation is the adaptation that changes the fundamental attributes of a system in response to climate and its effects (IPCC, 2014). Adaptation can also be classified as autonomous and planned adaptation. The autonomous adaptation can happen in natural systems represented by ecological changes in response to environment change. The planned adaptation may include anticipatory, progressive and reactive approaches in terms of the timing of adaptation. Anticipatory or preventive adaptation acts before any expected change occurs; progressive adaptation acts gradually in response to any expected occurrence of environmental changes; reactive or corrective adaptation acts depending on the observation of any environmental change. For adaptation in the cryosphere with its intention of moderating and avoiding harm or exploiting opportunities in mind, pathways to develop the adaptation to changes can be approached by reducing vulnerability and exposure of societies to hazards, as shown in Fig. 3. Although hazards are
deemed to be natural phenomena that are hardly regulated, people may avoid deteriorating the environment such as carbon emission to limit the even worsening of hazards in terms their frequency, intensity and duration. To exploit more opportunities in align with the service provided by the cryosphere under climate change, potentially increased natural capitals available to be utilized would revitalize the service on one hand. The pathways to improve utility through effectiveness and efficiency on another hand while increasing demand may also enhance the service, as shown in Fig. 4. Indeed, climate change is related to all spheres and their interactions. Meanwhile, it also affects cryospheric hazards, alter exposure and vulnerability, eventually either exacerbate or reduce the risk, as shown in Fig. 5. Interventions to reduce the risk or development of adaptation to changes can be approached at different scales, such as by improvement in design, planning and policies, which intend to address risk issues at local, regional and national scales, respectively. It should be noted that all measures developed in adaptation may also more or less changes the dynamics in other spheres, which may in turn affect the risk indirectly. While it is important to develop adaptation for the sake of reducing risk of climate change induced hazards, the adaptation should also be looked into to address the change in service as a result of climate change, which may lead to risks such as shortages in service, as shown in Fig. 6. In fact, climate change may potentially vary natural capitals required for services, while affecting demand and utility indirectly. Adaptation measures can be identified by the approaches aiming to improve the utility, efficient use of the natural capitals, and management of the demand, similarly through design, planning and policies. It should be noticed, the approach given in Figs. 5 and 6 only provides potential options for adaptation, the decision has to made on which option is more practical and effective. One of methods is applied by comparing cost and benefit of those potential options. The benefit can be considered as the risk reduction resulting from adaptation, while the cost is related to the implementation of the adaptation. The option is favored when the benefit is greater than the cost or the ratio of benefit to cost is greater than 1.
Fig. 3. A schematic description of adaptation pathway to reduce risk in the cryosphere.
Fig. 4. A schematic description of adaptation pathway to maintenance or improve services in the cryosphere.
2.2. Adaptation to changes
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Fig. 5. Development of adaptation by reducing risk.
3. Influences of the cryosphere on sustainable development The question is how the service that benefit to the societies could be sustainably maintained for future prosperity, without any fatal threat from potentially increased impacts of cryospheric hazards. The concept of sustainable development was initially raised in the Brundtland report (UNWCED, 1987), which is defined as the development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their
own needs. The sustainability is an attribute of a supplyconsumption process that can be maintained over time in a system. In general, the sustainability includes three key aspects, which are social, economic, and environmental aspects, in particular, concerning their balance now and future, as shown in Fig. 7. Economic development cannot be viable without considering environment, and hard to maintain equability without taking into account social aspects. Meanwhile, environmental conservation would not be bearable without social involvement. To advance the sustainable development, the
Fig. 6. Development of adaptation by reducing risk caused by the change in service.
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Fig. 7. The context of sustainability.
United Nations issued Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in 2015. The agenda has further identified 17 sustainable development goals. The 17 goals include total 169 specific targets. The cryosphere interacts with other spheres including atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, biosphere and anthroposphere. It contributes to the well-being of societies as well as environmental conservation, directly or indirectly. Therefore, it closely contributes to, but not limited to, the sustainable development goals indicated in Fig. 8. Changes in the cryosphere may fundamentally affect the sustainable development. The changes can be shrinkage or retreat of the cryosphere such as glaciers and permafrost, potential sea-level rise caused by melting ice sheets in the Arctic and the Antarctic, and other
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events closely associated with cryosphere changes such as redistribution of seasonal runoff, increased soil degradation by freezing and thawing cycles, the accelerated deterioration of soil mechanical properties required to sustain infrastructure and construction, and so on. Adaptation to the changes is prerequisite to maintain sustainable development. When cryosphere services as Fig. 2 are defined and the assumption that all targets in SDGs are equally important is made, the contribution of cryosphere services to SDGs can be described in Fig. 9, where the line thickness represents the degree of relevance between the service and specific SDG's targets. Although the results are preliminary, it does imply the close connection between cryosphere services and all targets of SDGs, except of “peace, justice and strong institution” and “partnerships for the goals”. Among them, the service to provision freshwater plays the most important roles, followed by habitation in the supporting service and environment education in the cultural services. It should be noted that the culture services play a critical role in sustainable development as they contribute to the most of targets. Meanwhile, among the SDGs, “life on land” can be most benefited or most relevant to the cryosphere services, followed by other SDGs, i.e., “climate action”, “clean water and sanitation”, “no poverty”, “zero hunger”, “sustainable cities and communities”. 4. Summary By looking into the effect of the cryosphere on humanbeing, the study developed a unified approach in the
Fig. 8. Potential contributions of the cryosphere to sustainable development (all SDG logos sourced from www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/developmentagenda).
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Fig. 9. Contributions of cryosphere services to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
analysis of cryospheric risks and services, with one focusing on the adverse impacts by cryospheric hazards and another emphasizing on the benefits that people can obtain from the natural capitals in the cryosphere. In general, it addresses the two opposite aspects of the roles of the cryosphere in affecting on human-being or anthroposphere. Climate change could further alter and complicate the roles, not only the changes in risks to cryospheric hazards, but also the changes in services that add more risks, representing increased adverse impacts on the anthroposphere. The study further proposed a risk-based approach in developing climate adaptation, reducing exposure and vulnerability to cryospheric hazards while enhancing the natural capitals and utility to maintain the benefit of services under changing cryosphere. It should be noted that change in services may sometimes be in a favor by providing more opportunities. Finally, the study addressed the role of cryosphere services in sustainable development in terms of achieving the goals, and provided details on how the services contributes to SDGs. More detailed and quantitative assessment have to be done in future.
Conflict of interest The authors declare no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments Authors are supported by Natural Science Foundation of China (41690141), Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA20100305), and CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program. We would also like to thank Dr ZHANG Yu-Lan for her assisting in the completion of Fig. 8. References Beniston, M., Diaz, H.F., 2003. Climatic change in mountain regions: a review of possible impacts. Clim. Change 59, 5e31. Brown, R.D., 2000. Northern hemisphere snow cover variability and change, 1915e97. J. Clim. 13, 2339e2355. Deline, P., Gardent, M., Magnin, F., et al., 2012. The morphodynamics of the mont blanc massif in a changing cryosphere: a comprehensive review. Geogr. Ann. 94, 265e283. Diaz, S., Pascual, U., Stenseke, M., et al., 2018. Assessing nature's contributions to people. Science 359, 270e272.
WANG X. et al. / Advances in Climate Change Research 10 (2019) 124e131 Gilaberte-Bu´rdalo, M., Lopez-Martı´n, F., Pino-Otı´n, M.R., et al., 2014. Impacts of climate change on ski industry. Environ. Sci. Policy 44, 51e61. Haeberli, W., Schaub, Y., Huggel, C., 2016. Increasing risks related to landslides from degrading permafrost into new lakes in de-glaciating mountain ranges. Geomorphology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.02.009. Huss, M., Hock, R., 2015. A new model for global glacier change and sealevel rise. Front. Earth Sci. 3, 54. Huss, M., Hock, R., 2018. Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss. Nat. Clim. Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x. Huss, M., Farinotti, D., Bauder, A., et al., 2010. Modelling runoff from highly glacierized alpine drainage basins in a changing climate. Hydrol. Process. 22, 3888e3902. IPCC, 2014. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York. Knight, J., Harrison, S., 2015. Mountain glacial and paraglacial environments under global climate change: lessons from the past, future directions and policy implications. Geogr. Ann. 96, 245e264. Koven, C.D., Riley, W.J., Stern, A., 2013. Analysis of permafrost thermal dynamics and response to climate change in the CMIP5 earth system models. J. Clim. 26, 1877e1900. Koven, C.D., Ringeval, B., Friedlingstein, P., et al., 2011. Permafrost carbonclimate feedbacks accelerate global warming. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 108, 14769. Kraaijenbrink, P.D.A., Bierkens, M.F.P., Lutz, A.F., et al., 2017. Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees celsius on asia's glaciers. Nature 549, 257e260. Krajick, K., 2004. Climate change. All downhill from here? Science 303, 1600. Kunkel, K.E., Robinson, D.A., Champion, S., et al., 2016. Trends and extremes in Northern Hemisphere snow characteristics. Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 2, 1e9. Milner, A.M., Khamis, K., Battin, T.J., et al., 2017. Glacier shrinkage driving global changes in downstream systems. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 114, 9770.
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Mudryk, L.R., Kushner, P.J., Derksen, C., et al., 2017. Snow cover response to temperature in observational and climate model ensembles. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44 (2), 919e926. Peng, S., Piao, S., Ciais, P., et al., 2010. Change in winter snow depth and its impacts on vegetation in China. Glob. Chang. Biol. 16, 3004e3013. Ponspons, M., Johnson, P.A., Rosascasals, M., et al., 2012. Modeling climate change effects on winter ski tourism in Andorra. Clim. Res. 54, 197e207. Qin, D., Liu, S., Li, P., 2006. Snow cover distribution, variability, and response to climate change. J. Clim. 19, 1820e1833. Qin, D., Ding, Y., Xiao, C., et al., 2018. Cryospheric science: research framework and disciplinary system. Natl. Sci. Rev. 5 (02), 141e154. Schaefer, K., Zhang, T., Bruhwiler, L., et al., 2011. Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming. Tellus 63, 165e180. Steiger, R., Abegg, B., 2013. The sensitivity of austrian ski areas to climate change. Tourism Plann. Dev. 10, 480e493. Sturm, M., Goldstein, M.A., Parr, C., 2017. Water and life from snow: a trillion dollar science question. Water Resour. Res. 53, 3534e3544. https:// doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020840. UNWCED (United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development), 1987. Brundtland Report: Our Common Future. Walker, D.A., Jia, G.J., Epstein, H.E., et al., 2003. Vegetation-soil-thaw-depth relationships along a low-arctic bioclimate gradient, Alaska: synthesis of information from the atlas studies. Permafr. Periglac. Process. 14, 103e123. Wang, G., Bai, W., Li, N., et al., 2011. Climate changes and its impact on tundra ecosystem in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Clim. Change 106, 463e482. Wipf, S., Stoeckli, V., Bebi, P., 2009. Winter climate change in alpine tundra: plant Kunkel, responses to changes in snow depth and snowmelt timing. Clim. Change 94, 105e121. WRI (World Resources Institute ), 2003. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: a Framework for Assessment. Island Press, Washington, DC. Wu, Q.-B., Li, X., Li, W.-J., 2001. The response model of permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibetan highway under climate change. J. Glaciol. Geocryol. 23 (1), 1e6 (in Chinese).
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A new look at roles of the cryosphere in sustainable development WANG Xiaoming a,*, LIU Shi-Wei a,b, ZHANG Jing-Lin a,b a
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou, 730000, China b College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China Received 18 October 2018; revised 23 April 2019; accepted 5 June 2019 Available online 13 June 2019
Abstract While the cryosphere may bring in adverse impacts on natural and built environment, it may also provide benefits resulting from cryosphere services. By looking into the effect of the cryosphere on human-being, the study develops a unified approach in the analysis of cryospheric risks and services, with one focusing on the adverse impacts by cryospheric hazards and another emphasizing on the benefits that people can obtain from the natural capitals in the cryosphere. Meanwhile, climate change could further alter and complicate the roles of the cryosphere, not only by the changes in risks to cryospheric hazards, but also the changes in services that could potentially add more risks. The study further proposed a risk-based approach for the development of climate adaptation in the cryosphere. The approach essentially takes options to reduce exposure and vulnerability of societies to cryospheric hazards, and to better manage natural capitals and demands together with enhancing utility of the cryosphere, so as to maintain the benefit of cryosphere services in a sustainable way. The study further addresses the role of cryosphere services in strengthening sustainable development in terms of its relation with the sustainable development goals (SDGs), and provides a preliminary results on how the services contributes to SDGs. Overall, the approach developed in this study creates a new way to comprehensively assess the effect of cryosphere changes on our society and identify measures to maximize the benefit while minimizing the risk in relation to the cryosphere. Keywords: Cryosphere; Cryospheric science; Cryosphere service; Cryosphere change; Climate change impact; Climate change adaptation; Risk management; Sustainable development
1. Introduction The cryosphere is a sphere on the Earth's surface with a certain thickness, where temperature is continuously distributed below the freezing point. It can be divided into continental, marine and aerial cryosphere, consisting of glaciers, ice sheets, frozen ground, snow, sea ice, and so on (Qin et al., 2018). It is well known that the cryosphere is very sensitive to climate change, and therefore considered as a barometer of climate change (Qin et al., 2006; Koven et al., 2013; and * Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (WANG X.). Peer review under responsibility of National Climate Center (China Meteorological Administration).
Kraaijenbrink et al., 2017). A study showed that a global temperature rise of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels would lead to 36% loss of glacier ice mass in high mountains of Asia (Kraaijenbrink et al., 2017). Changes in the cryosphere may further affect other spheres. It is understood that glaciers may contribute to sea-level rise equivalent to 79 mm, 108 mm and 147 mm, for the climate change scenarios in relation to RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively (Huss and Hock, 2015). More studies done by Huss and Hock (2018) indicated, by 2100, one-third of largescale glacierized drainage basins might experience runoff decrease greater than 10% due to glacier mass loss, with the largest reduction in central Asia and the Andes. Potentially, it can considerably impact on the large-scale glacierized drainage basins that cover 26% of the global land surface
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2019.06.005 1674-9278/Copyright © 2019, National Climate Center (China Meteorological Administration). Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
WANG X. et al. / Advances in Climate Change Research 10 (2019) 124e131
outside Greenland and Antarctica and are populated by almost one-third of the world's population (Beniston and Diaz, 2003). On regional and local scales, the meltwater from the cryosphere is an important contributor in regulating runoff. The changes in the cryosphere cause an increase in runoff during spring and early summer, but significant decrease in July and August (Huss et al., 2010; Huss and Hock, 2018). This can lead to the cascading impacts on downstream system (Milner et al., 2017). The change in snow cover may also have a significant consequence adversely affecting other spheres. The global snow-covered area and mass have been declining over the past 30 years (Brown et al., 2000; Mudryk et al., 2017; Kunkel et al., 2016), causing considerable concerns of eventual reduction in water supply. It may then impact on agriculture and other socioeconomic activities in mountainous regions, such as hydropower generation (Beniston and Diaz, 2003), winter tourism (Ponspons et al., 2012; Steiger and Abegg, 2013; Gilaberte-Bu´rdalo et al., 2014), as well as ecosystems (Peng et al., 2010; Krajick, 2004; Wipf et al., 2009). It is found that the snow is melting earlier, causing a time shift in seasonal runoff (Brown et al., 2000; Kunkel et al., 2016). The shift can also be caused by the increase in rainfall and the decrease in snowfall as a result of warming climate producing more economic loss (Sturm et al., 2017). Additionally, frozen grounds can be altered by climate change through changes in heat exchange between soil and the overlying atmosphere (Wang et al., 2011). A permafrost loss can be in a wide range, i.e., 2%e66% for RCP2.6, 15%e87% for RCP4.5, and 30%e99% for RCP8.5 (Koven et al., 2013). This may lead to the release of CO2 and CH4 from frozen grounds to the atmosphere (Koven et al., 2011; Schaefer et al., 2011), and simultaneously impact on the alpine ecosystem (Wu et al., 2001; Walker et al., 2003). As illustrated above, cryosphere changes may lead to a various kind of impacts, mostly represented by the loss of services provided by the cryosphere (such as water supply). Alternatively, the loss can occur directly by cryospheric hazards, such as glacier lake outburst floods, glacial debris flow, wind-blown snow, avalanches, blizzards, freezing rain, freezeethaw hazards, and river and sea-ice hazards (Haeberli et al., 2016; Knight and Harrison, 2015; Deline et al., 2012). Having said that, climate change may cause changes in cryospheric hazards in terms of extent, intensity, frequency, and duration. With population growth and rapid economic development, the exposure of our societies to hazards is getting even higher, thus causing more risks. To maintain the prosperity in the cryosphere without compromising the ability of future generation to continue sharing its benefits even under climate change, it is required for us to adapt to the change, minimize risks and effectively utilize cryospheric resources by taking more sustainable approaches in our development. What are the key issues in the changing cryosphere and the roles of the cryosphere in sustainable development have to be clarified. The study is intended to do so from the fundamentals of risk-based approaches. It defines the pathways to explore risk reduction
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options, improve adaptive capacity, and better the benefit that can be provided to societies by the cryosphere. At the end, it is to understand how the cryosphere effectively and practically contribute to the sustainable development goals or SDGs. 2. Key issues in the cryosphere under climate change 2.1. Risks and services Similar to the ecosystem service framework developed in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (WRI, 2003), the cryosphere has functions of provisioning water supply, regulating climate, supporting ecosystem, and serving the cultural needs, from which human benefits. In the contrast, cryospheric hazards can generate adverse impacts on societies. In this regard, the cryosphere may bring in either positive or negative effects on our societies. As shown in Fig. 1, in interacting with other spheres, the cryosphere generates not only adverse hazards but also beneficial natural capitals affecting people or the anthroposphere where involves human activities and habitats. It brings in risks, but also provides services to societies at the same time. Changes in the cryosphere may either diminish or enhance the effects, resulting in changes of risks and services. In particular, the reduction in services may add more risks when demand in the anthroposphere would not be met. It should be pointed out that the framework gives a general approach in describing two aspects that could happen as results of the interactions amid multi-spheres. More specifics have to be given considering the great differences among various components of the cryosphere, such as mountain glaciers, sea ice, permafrost and snow cover, at different geographical locations, such as in Antarctica, the Arctic, Greenland and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau or the Third Pole. The keys are about to identify the hazards induced or natural capitals provided by the cryospheric components, for evaluation of cryospheric effects on human beings, adversely or beneficially. More specifically, the risk represents the potential impact of cryospheric hazards on a concerned object. The object can be assets, people, infrastructure, communities, environment, economy or broad society at all scales. Risk is generally expressed by multiplication of the consequence of a
Fig. 1. Issues about the effects of the cryosphere in interacting with other spheres on the anthroposphere.
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cryosphere change event and the likelihood of event's occurrence, or simply described by Risk ¼ Likelihood Consequence
ð1Þ
In more details related to the cryosphere, the event is usually considered as a hazard, such as glacier lake outburst floods (GLOF), avalanches, snowstorms, freezing and thawing, frost, permafrost erosions, coastal storm surges and so on. The consequence is considered as a result of the impacts of hazards, often in monetary or non-monetary terms of damages, loss or any form of adverse effects incurred by the concerned object, generally on social, economic and environmental aspect. In practice, concerning the object such as natural and built assets or population, the consequence is determined by both likelihood of exposure of the object to hazards as well as its vulnerability. In this regard, the risk can also be described by Risk ¼ Likelihood of Hazard Likelihood of Exposure Vulnerability ð2Þ where the likelihood of hazard or exposure can be 1 if they become certain. In general, risk is the combined effect of hazards, exposures, and vulnerability of the concerned object, as shown in Fig. 1. Vulnerability is deemed here to be the susceptibility of a concerned object and measured as a likely loss or any adverse effect in correspondence to a given degree of a hazard. For either built or natural assets, vulnerability can be described by the loss of functionality, serviceability or/and integrity given exposure to hazards, for example, infrastructure damage loss in association with GLOF. It is often represented in a monetary term, although other measures may be used. Vulnerability assessment is the key step to understand the performance of concerned objects subject to cryosphere changes. The degree of vulnerability is closely related to the capacity. The capacity is considered to be an inherent property and the ability to withstand or accommodate expected (future) adverse cryospheric hazard impacts without loss of its functionality, serviceability or integrity. For example, the ability of road pavement to resist freeze-thaw cycles without damage. In terms of the service as described in Fig. 1, in parallel to the risk, the service represents the potential benefit that human-being can obtain from the cryosphere. The benefit can be results from provisioning, regulating, supporting and culture provided by the cryosphere, as shown in Fig. 2, where the continental cryosphere consists of glacier (and ice sheet), frozen ground, snow cover, river and lake ice, the marine cryosphere has sea ice, ice shelf, iceberg and subsea permafrost, and the aerial cryosphere refers to solid water in the atmosphere. Meanwhile, in addition to four service categories given above, it was argued that the habitat service in the cryosphere should also be included, and it not only covers general habitat, but also biological living environment. In this study, we would rather keep the framework as described in Fig. 2, which is in alignment with the
Fig. 2. Aspects of cryosphere service.
ecosystem service framework by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (WRI, 2003). It should also be pointed out that a concept of “Nature's Contributions to People” was also proposed to address the concerns about conceptulised services framed as flows from ecosystems (Diaz et al., 2018), which is perceived to fail to take into account the effect of culture and other social aspects on the services. The effect would not be considered in this study. As illustrated in Fig. 1, the degree of the service can be represented by. Service ¼ Likelihood of Cryospheric Capital Likelihood of Demand Utility
ð3Þ
The cryospheric capital is a term for the stock of renewable and non-renewable natural resources in the cryosphere, particularly relevant to their components such as snow, frozen grounds and glaciers, which yields the service benefiting to societies. The cryospheric capital is inherently natural capital (others may include social, human, physical and financial capitals), but have power or functions to achieve benefits through its flow or services on the aspects of provisioning, regulating, supporting and culture. The likelihood of demand, in another term, can be deemed as the likelihood of cryospheric capitals to meet societies' demand. The utility measures the usefulness of cryospheric capitals, which societies can derive from the cryosphere services. Estimation of the risk and service in Eqs. (1)e(3) can be carried out by either qualitative or quantitative approaches. Quantitatively, the risk is often expressed as an expected loss considering uncertainties, with a reference to impact consequences of the hazards at categorically defined severity, such as a range from very frequent to very rare events. The impact consequence is normally related to economic loss, but it could also be described as broader socioeconomic and environmental loss at a scale from local to global level. On the contrary, the service can be qualitatively measured with a reference to the extent of cryospheric capital availability and the significance of utilities when societies rely on the capitals. Quantitatively, they can both be estimated based on probability theory.
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Interacting with other spheres, the cryosphere affects the anthroposphere, either generating benefit or causing loss to societies. It is generally the task for people to seek a solution to minimize risks and maximize services at the same time. Considering climate change, there would be more uncertainties. In addition to the changes of risks derived from the cryospheric hazards as a result of climate change, the change in services may also add more risks as there would be a likelihood that the demand would not be met any more. Adaptation should be considered to accommodate the change and reduce the increasing risk by climate change. Adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation is intended to moderate, avoid harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, adaptation by human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate change and its effects. Adaptation can be generally categorized into incremental and transformational adaptation. The incremental adaptation is the adaptation actions where the central aim is to maintain the essence and integrity of a system or process at a given scale. The transformational adaptation is the adaptation that changes the fundamental attributes of a system in response to climate and its effects (IPCC, 2014). Adaptation can also be classified as autonomous and planned adaptation. The autonomous adaptation can happen in natural systems represented by ecological changes in response to environment change. The planned adaptation may include anticipatory, progressive and reactive approaches in terms of the timing of adaptation. Anticipatory or preventive adaptation acts before any expected change occurs; progressive adaptation acts gradually in response to any expected occurrence of environmental changes; reactive or corrective adaptation acts depending on the observation of any environmental change. For adaptation in the cryosphere with its intention of moderating and avoiding harm or exploiting opportunities in mind, pathways to develop the adaptation to changes can be approached by reducing vulnerability and exposure of societies to hazards, as shown in Fig. 3. Although hazards are
deemed to be natural phenomena that are hardly regulated, people may avoid deteriorating the environment such as carbon emission to limit the even worsening of hazards in terms their frequency, intensity and duration. To exploit more opportunities in align with the service provided by the cryosphere under climate change, potentially increased natural capitals available to be utilized would revitalize the service on one hand. The pathways to improve utility through effectiveness and efficiency on another hand while increasing demand may also enhance the service, as shown in Fig. 4. Indeed, climate change is related to all spheres and their interactions. Meanwhile, it also affects cryospheric hazards, alter exposure and vulnerability, eventually either exacerbate or reduce the risk, as shown in Fig. 5. Interventions to reduce the risk or development of adaptation to changes can be approached at different scales, such as by improvement in design, planning and policies, which intend to address risk issues at local, regional and national scales, respectively. It should be noted that all measures developed in adaptation may also more or less changes the dynamics in other spheres, which may in turn affect the risk indirectly. While it is important to develop adaptation for the sake of reducing risk of climate change induced hazards, the adaptation should also be looked into to address the change in service as a result of climate change, which may lead to risks such as shortages in service, as shown in Fig. 6. In fact, climate change may potentially vary natural capitals required for services, while affecting demand and utility indirectly. Adaptation measures can be identified by the approaches aiming to improve the utility, efficient use of the natural capitals, and management of the demand, similarly through design, planning and policies. It should be noticed, the approach given in Figs. 5 and 6 only provides potential options for adaptation, the decision has to made on which option is more practical and effective. One of methods is applied by comparing cost and benefit of those potential options. The benefit can be considered as the risk reduction resulting from adaptation, while the cost is related to the implementation of the adaptation. The option is favored when the benefit is greater than the cost or the ratio of benefit to cost is greater than 1.
Fig. 3. A schematic description of adaptation pathway to reduce risk in the cryosphere.
Fig. 4. A schematic description of adaptation pathway to maintenance or improve services in the cryosphere.
2.2. Adaptation to changes
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Fig. 5. Development of adaptation by reducing risk.
3. Influences of the cryosphere on sustainable development The question is how the service that benefit to the societies could be sustainably maintained for future prosperity, without any fatal threat from potentially increased impacts of cryospheric hazards. The concept of sustainable development was initially raised in the Brundtland report (UNWCED, 1987), which is defined as the development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their
own needs. The sustainability is an attribute of a supplyconsumption process that can be maintained over time in a system. In general, the sustainability includes three key aspects, which are social, economic, and environmental aspects, in particular, concerning their balance now and future, as shown in Fig. 7. Economic development cannot be viable without considering environment, and hard to maintain equability without taking into account social aspects. Meanwhile, environmental conservation would not be bearable without social involvement. To advance the sustainable development, the
Fig. 6. Development of adaptation by reducing risk caused by the change in service.
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Fig. 7. The context of sustainability.
United Nations issued Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in 2015. The agenda has further identified 17 sustainable development goals. The 17 goals include total 169 specific targets. The cryosphere interacts with other spheres including atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, biosphere and anthroposphere. It contributes to the well-being of societies as well as environmental conservation, directly or indirectly. Therefore, it closely contributes to, but not limited to, the sustainable development goals indicated in Fig. 8. Changes in the cryosphere may fundamentally affect the sustainable development. The changes can be shrinkage or retreat of the cryosphere such as glaciers and permafrost, potential sea-level rise caused by melting ice sheets in the Arctic and the Antarctic, and other
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events closely associated with cryosphere changes such as redistribution of seasonal runoff, increased soil degradation by freezing and thawing cycles, the accelerated deterioration of soil mechanical properties required to sustain infrastructure and construction, and so on. Adaptation to the changes is prerequisite to maintain sustainable development. When cryosphere services as Fig. 2 are defined and the assumption that all targets in SDGs are equally important is made, the contribution of cryosphere services to SDGs can be described in Fig. 9, where the line thickness represents the degree of relevance between the service and specific SDG's targets. Although the results are preliminary, it does imply the close connection between cryosphere services and all targets of SDGs, except of “peace, justice and strong institution” and “partnerships for the goals”. Among them, the service to provision freshwater plays the most important roles, followed by habitation in the supporting service and environment education in the cultural services. It should be noted that the culture services play a critical role in sustainable development as they contribute to the most of targets. Meanwhile, among the SDGs, “life on land” can be most benefited or most relevant to the cryosphere services, followed by other SDGs, i.e., “climate action”, “clean water and sanitation”, “no poverty”, “zero hunger”, “sustainable cities and communities”. 4. Summary By looking into the effect of the cryosphere on humanbeing, the study developed a unified approach in the
Fig. 8. Potential contributions of the cryosphere to sustainable development (all SDG logos sourced from www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/developmentagenda).
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Fig. 9. Contributions of cryosphere services to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
analysis of cryospheric risks and services, with one focusing on the adverse impacts by cryospheric hazards and another emphasizing on the benefits that people can obtain from the natural capitals in the cryosphere. In general, it addresses the two opposite aspects of the roles of the cryosphere in affecting on human-being or anthroposphere. Climate change could further alter and complicate the roles, not only the changes in risks to cryospheric hazards, but also the changes in services that add more risks, representing increased adverse impacts on the anthroposphere. The study further proposed a risk-based approach in developing climate adaptation, reducing exposure and vulnerability to cryospheric hazards while enhancing the natural capitals and utility to maintain the benefit of services under changing cryosphere. It should be noted that change in services may sometimes be in a favor by providing more opportunities. Finally, the study addressed the role of cryosphere services in sustainable development in terms of achieving the goals, and provided details on how the services contributes to SDGs. More detailed and quantitative assessment have to be done in future.
Conflict of interest The authors declare no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments Authors are supported by Natural Science Foundation of China (41690141), Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA20100305), and CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program. We would also like to thank Dr ZHANG Yu-Lan for her assisting in the completion of Fig. 8. References Beniston, M., Diaz, H.F., 2003. Climatic change in mountain regions: a review of possible impacts. Clim. Change 59, 5e31. Brown, R.D., 2000. Northern hemisphere snow cover variability and change, 1915e97. J. Clim. 13, 2339e2355. Deline, P., Gardent, M., Magnin, F., et al., 2012. The morphodynamics of the mont blanc massif in a changing cryosphere: a comprehensive review. Geogr. Ann. 94, 265e283. Diaz, S., Pascual, U., Stenseke, M., et al., 2018. Assessing nature's contributions to people. Science 359, 270e272.
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