Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect Procedia Engineering 89 (2014) 870 – 877
WK&RQIHUHQFHRQ:DWHU'LVWULEXWLRQ6\VWHP$QDO\VLV:'6$
$6WXG\RQ(FRQRPLF(YDOXDWLRQIRU3LSHOLQH5HQHZDO8VLQJ &RQWLQJHQW9DOXDWLRQ0HWKRGDQG)RUHFDVWLQJ3LSHOLQH%XUVW ..LPD0.LPD6&KRLE-.RRD D
'HSDUWPHQWRI(QYLURQPHQWDO(QJLQHHULQJ8QLYHUVLW\RI6HRXO6HRXOVLULSGDHUR'RQJGDHPXQJX6HRXO5HSXEOLFRI.RUHD E 'HSDUWPHQWRI(QYLURQPHQWDO(QJLQHHULQJ.RUHD8QLYHUVLW\JD$QDPGRQJ6XQJEXNJX6HRXO5HSXEOLFRI.RUHD
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© 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). 3HHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RIWKH2UJDQL]LQJ&RPPLWWHHRI:'6$ Peer-review under responsibility of the Organizing Committee of WDSA 2014 .H\ZRUGV3LSHOLQHUHQHZDO(FRQRPLFHYDOXDWLRQ%HQHILWFRVWDQDO\VLV&RQWLQJHQWYDOXDWLRQPHWKRG:LOOLQJQHVVWRSD\
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
&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HOID[ (PDLODGGUHVVM\NRR#XRVDFNU
1877-7058 © 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the Organizing Committee of WDSA 2014 doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2014.11.519
871
K. Kim et al. / Procedia Engineering 89 (2014) 870 – 877
UHQHZDOLVQRWDQHDV\WDVN7KHUHIRUHWKLVVWXG\LVLQWHQGHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKHYDOLGDWLRQRIUHQHZDODIWHUVXJJHVWLQJD ZD\RIDVVHVVLQJWKHHFRQRPLFIHDVLELOLW\RISLSHOLQHUHQHZDOWKURXJK&RQWLQJHQW9DOXDWLRQ0HWKRG&90 RQHRI YDOXDWLRQPHDVXUHPHQWVRIQRQPDUNHWJRRGVDQGWKURXJKWKHHVWLPDWLRQRISLSHOLQHEXUVWLQWKHIXWXUH 0HWKRGRORJ\ 7KHIORZFKDUWRIWKLVVWXG\LVVKRZQLQ)LJ
)LJ)ORZFKDUWRIVWXG\
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
872
K. Kim et al. / Procedia Engineering 89 (2014) 870 – 877 7DEOH6HOHFWHGEHQHILWLWHPVDQGGHWHUPLQDWLRQPHWKRGRIEHQHILW 6HOHFWHGEHQHILWLWHPV
'HWHUPLQDWLRQPHWKRGRIEHQHILW
%HQHILWIURPUHGXFWLRQRIUHSDLUFRVWV
1XPEHURIDQQXDOEXUVWî5HSDLUFRVWV
%HQHILWIURPUHGXFWLRQRIOHDNDJH
1XPEHURIDQQXDOEXUVWî/HDNDJHYROXPHî5DZZDWHUXQLWSULFH
%HQHILWIURPUHGXFWLRQRIPDLQWHQDQFHFRVWV
0DLQWHQDQFHFRVWZLWKRXWUHKDELOLWDWLRQFRVWZLWKUHKDELOLWDWLRQ î3LSHOLQHOHQJWK
%HQHILWIURPUHGXFWLRQLQGDPDJHE\EXUVW
$QQXDOZDWHUVXSSO\î$PRXQWRI:73E\FRQVXPHUWRUHGXFHLQWKH'DPDJHE\EXUVW
%HQHILWIURPFUHGLELOLW\LPSURYHPHQWLQVXSSO\
$QQXDOZDWHUVXSSO\î$PRXQWRI:73E\FRQVXPHUWRLPSURYHFUHGLELOLW\LQVXSSO\
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
\
EHEW F DH
EW F
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
H
D E ; L
:LOOLQJQHVV7R 3D\
D E
:KHUHȽLVFRQVWDQWȾLVELG$QVZHUVLQWKHVXUYH\PD\LQFOXGHQRQUHVSRQVHELDVE\WKHSDUWLFLSDQWVWKDWKDG UHSXOVLRQRIWD[LQFUHDVHRIWKLVSXEOLFJRRGVE\DQVZHULQJ 1R RU DV:736XFKEHQHILWVZHUHFODVVLILHGUHIHUULQJ WRWKH.',¶VJXLGHOLQHVDVSURWHVWELGDQGZHUHH[FOXGHGIURP:73HVWLPDWLRQ>@ 'HWHUPLQDWLRQRI&RVW,WHPV ,Q ODUJH HFRQRPLF FRVWV ZHUH GLYLGHG LQWR FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV DQG RWKHU H[SHQVHV 7KH FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV ZHUH IXUWKHUGLYLGHGLQWRFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVLQFLGHQWDOH[SHQVHVODQGDFTXLVLWLRQFRVWVDQGH[WUDFRVWV+HUHWKHLQFLGHQWDO H[SHQVHV ZHUH FDOFXODWHG E\ GLVWLQJXLVKLQJ LQYHVWLJDWLRQ DQG PHDVXUHPHQW FRVWV GHVLJQ FRVWV DQG PDQDJHPHQW H[SHQVHV2WKHUH[SHQVHVLQFOXGHGPDLQWHQDQFHFRVWVUHVLGXDOYDOXHDQGUHLQYHVWPHQWFRVWV
873
K. Kim et al. / Procedia Engineering 89 (2014) 870 – 877
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
\
HW H
W
G )LJ3UHGLFWLRQRIWKHQXPEHURIDQQXDOEXUVWLQWKHIXWXUH 7DEOH5HVXOWRIWKHEHQHILWIURPUHGXFWLRQRIUHSDLUFRVW
7KHQXPEHURIDQQXDOEXUVWV EXUVW\HDU
5HSDLUFRVWSHUEXUVW :RQEXUVW
%HQHILWIURPUHGXFWLRQRIUHSDLUFRVW PLOOLRQ:RQ\HDU
a
a
a
a
7RWDO
(PHUJHQF\UHVWRUDWLRQH[SHQVHZDVGHWHUPLQHGE\WKHDVVXPSWLRQRIUHSDLULQJDPHWHUVHFWLRQRISLSHOLQHSHU EXUVW EDVHG RQ WKH FRVWV IRU WKH HQWLUH UHVWRUDWLRQ RI VXEMHFW SLSHOLQH XSRQ EXUVW UHVXOWLQJ LQ .RUHD 5HSXEOLF :RQ.5: RIHPHUJHQF\UHVWRUDWLRQFRVWSHUEXUVW %HQHILWIURP5HGXFWLRQRI/HDNDJH 7KHEHQHILWIURPUHGXFWLRQRIOHDNDJHZDVGHWHUPLQHGE\PXOWLSO\LQJWKHQXPEHURIHVWLPDWHGDQQXDOEXUVWVLQWKH IXWXUHE\WKHOHDNDJHYROXPHDQGWKHUDZZDWHUXQLWSULFHSHUEXUVW
874
K. Kim et al. / Procedia Engineering 89 (2014) 870 – 877 7DEOH5HVXOWRIWKHEHQHILWIURPUHGXFWLRQRIOHDNDJH
7KHQXPEHURIDQQXDOEXUVW EXUVW\HDU
/HDNDJHSHUEXUVW PEXUVW
5DZZDWHUXQLW SULFH:RQP
%HQHILWIURPUHGXFWLRQRIOHDNDJH
a
a
a
a
a
7RWDO
PLOOLRQ:RQ\HDU
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
0DLQWHQDQFHFRVWZLWKRXW UHKDELOLWDWLRQ :RQNP\HDU
0DLQWHQDQFHFRVWZLWK UHKDELOLWDWLRQ :RQNP\HDU
5HGXFWLRQRI PDLQWHQDQFHFRVW :RQNP\HDU
3LSHOLQH OHQJWKNP
%HQHILWIURPUHGXFWLRQRI PDLQWHQDQFHFRVW PLOOLRQ:RQ\HDU
a
a
a
a
a
a
7RWDO
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
875
K. Kim et al. / Procedia Engineering 89 (2014) 870 – 877 7DEOH5HVXOWRI:73IRUUHGXFLQJGDPDJHE\OLYLQJZDWHUEXUVW &DWHJRU\
&RHIILFLHQW
7YDOXH
3YDOXH
ȽFRQVWDQW
ȾELG
(VWLPDWHG:73
:RQP
&RUUHFWWKHSULFHLQGH[
:RQP
7DEOH5HVXOWRIWKHEHQHILWIURPUHGXFWLRQLQGDPDJHE\EXUVW %HQHILWIURPUHGXFWLRQLQGDPDJHE\EXUVW
ZDWHUVXSSO\PG
:73:RQP
/LYLQJZDWHU
,QGXVWULDOZDWHU
/LYLQJZDWHU
,QGXVWULDOZDWHU
/LYLQJZDWHU
,QGXVWULDOZDWHU
7RWDO
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
7RWDO
PLOOLRQ:RQ\HDU
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
ZDWHUVXSSO\PG
:73:RQP
/LYLQJZDWHU
,QGXVWULDOZDWHU
/LYLQJZDWHU
,QGXVWULDOZDWHU
/LYLQJZDWHU
,QGXVWULDOZDWHU
7RWDO
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
7RWDO
PLOOLRQ:RQ\HDU
876
K. Kim et al. / Procedia Engineering 89 (2014) 870 – 877 7DEOH5HVXOWRI:73IRUFUHGLELOLW\LPSURYHPHQWLQOLYLQJZDWHUVXSSO\ &DWHJRU\
&RHIILFLHQW
7YDOXH
3YDOXH
ȽFRQVWDQW
ȾELG
(VWLPDWHG:73
:RQP
&RUUHFWWKHSULFHLQGH[
:RQP
5HVXOWVRI&RVWV'HWHUPLQDWLRQ 5HVXOWVRIHDFKLWHPFDOFXODWLRQLQWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVDUHDVLQ7DEOH7KHWRWDOFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVWXUQHGRXW WREH.5:PLOOLRQDQGWKHDPRXQWEHFRPHV.5:PLOOLRQLI9DOXH$GGHG7D[9$7 LVH[FOXGHG 7KH FDOFXODWHG WRWDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ FRVWV ZDV DVVXPHG QRW WR EH LQYHVWHG DW RQFH EXW GLVWULEXWHG WKURXJKRXW WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQSHULRGDQGWKHDQQXDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWVDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOH 7DEOH5HVXOWRIFRQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV &DWHJRU\
&RVWPLOOLRQ:RQ
&DWHJRU\
&RVWPLOOLRQ:RQ
&RQVWUXFWLRQFRVWV
/DQGDFTXLVLWLRQFRVWV
5HKDELOLWDWLRQ
,QFLGHQWDOH[SHQVHV
$1RQVWUXFWXUDO5HKDELOLWDWLRQ
,QYHVWLJDWLRQ PHDVXUHPHQW
%6WUXFWXUDO5HKDELOLWDWLRQ
'HVLJQFRVWV
&,QFLGHQWDOH[SHQVHV
0DQDJHPHQWH[SHQVHV
'RXEOHSLSLQJ
([WUDFRVWV
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
5HVXOW
3UHVHQWYDOXHRIWRWDOEHQHILWV
PLOOLRQ:RQ
3UHVHQWYDOXHRIWRWDOFRVWV
PLOOLRQ:RQ
%&
139
PLOOLRQ:RQ
877
K. Kim et al. / Procedia Engineering 89 (2014) 870 – 877 7DEOH5HVXOWRI(FRQRPLFDQDO\VLV
%HQHILWVPLOOLRQ:RQ
DQDO\VLVSHULRG
&RVWVPLOOLRQ:RQ
3UHVHQWYDOXH
7RWDO
3UHVHQWYDOXH
7RWDO
&RQVWUXFWLRQ
&RQVWUXFWLRQ
&RQVWUXFWLRQ
&RQVWUXFWLRQ
&RQVWUXFWLRQ
a
a
a
a
a
7RWDO
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³3URMHFW IRU 'HYHORSLQJ (FR,QQRYDWLRQ 7HFKQRORJLHV*7* ´ 5HIHUHQFHV >@66DHJURYHHWDO³5HKDELOLWDWLRQRIZDWHUQHWZRUNV6XUYH\RIUHVHDUFKQHHGVDQGRQJRLQJHIIRUWV´8UEDQZDWHUYROQRSS >@.RUHD0LQLVWU\RI(QYLURQPHQW:DWHU6XSSO\6WDWLVWLFV >@.:DWHU7KHUG3UHFLVLRQ6DIHW\,QVSHFWLRQRI3RKDQJ,QGXVWULDO:DWHUZRUNV >@6+.ZRQ³(VWLPDWLQJWKHYDOXHRI$FFRXQWLQJ,QIRUPDWLRQ8VLQJ&RQWLQJHQW9DOXDWLRQ0HWKRG´'DQNRRU8QLY7KHVLV >@.RUHD'HYHORSPHQW,QVWLWXWH.', *HQHUDOJXLGHOLQHVIRUFRQGXFWLQJ3UHOLPLQDU\)HDVLELOLW\6WXG\ >@.RUHD0LQLVWU\RI/DQG,QIUDVWUXFWXUHDQG7UDQVSRUW$)HDVLELOLW\6WXG\RQ6WDELOL]DWLRQRIWKH:DWHUPDLQ6\VWHP