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A trend analysis of computing in agricultural extension
Computers and electronics in agriculture ELSEVIER
Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 11 (1994) 239-248
A trend analysis of computing in agricultural extension M.W. Wakefield a, J.W. King b,. a College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68588, USA b Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Communication and Computing Service Unit, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68583, USA Accepted 24 June 1994
Abstract
The role that computers play in agriculture has evolved over time from simplistic record keeping and spreadsheets, to incorporating expert systems to solve complex problems and manage complete farm systems. Increased agricultural productivity through the use of computers is limited less by available technology than our ability to disseminate and apply recent technological developments and information. Agricultural Extension programs face a daunting challenge in adapting their role as interface agents between current computer technology and the clientele they serve. This paper evaluates trends observed over time from the "Proceedings" of Agricultural Extension for 1986, 1988, and 1990 to identify "grass roots movements" in the field that could help Extension agents prepare for this challenge. A priori predictions for the next "Proceedings" (1992) were based on trends from past "Proceedings" and were generally supported by subject material contained in the 1992 "Proceedings". A surprise finding was that Expert Systems, predicted to be the topic area generating the greatest number of articles, was conspicuously absent in the 1992 "Proceedings". Cursory analysis indicated that Expert Systems had been subsumed under other categories, thereby indicating more widespread acceptance in the field for this technological support. The product market life cycle is used to explain how technology such as Expert Systems is introduced and becomes accepted.
Keywords: Extension; Trends; Future; Life cycle; Software; Applications I. Introduction
Computers and their applications are now pervasive throughout the agricultural community - - from the land grant system to the farm tractor. Based on this * Corresponding author. Part of this paper was prepared with the support of USDA Cooperative Agreement No. 89-EXCA3-0982. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the USDA or the University of Nebraska. 0168-1699/94/$07.00 © 1994 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. SSDI 0 1 6 8 - 1 6 9 9 ( 9 4 ) 0 0 0 2 4 - 7
240
M. W. Wakefield, J. W. King / Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 11 (1994) 239-248
widespread use, the Science and Education group of the United States Department of Agriculture (S&E USDA) commissioned a study on the management of computer support systems in agriculture (Love et al., 1990). The study we are reporting grew out of that larger study on agricultural computer systems. Using trend analysis, this paper will identify thrusts and future directions in the development of computer applications in the agricultural and natural resources sector, within the extension arena specifically. The outcome of this analysis provides material for further discussion, and may help administrators and computer and communication personnel to better position themselves to implement and operationalize key management actions. 2. Methods and procedures
The role that computers play in agriculture has evolved over time from simplistic record keeping and spreadsheets, to incorporating expert systems to solve complex problems and manage complete farm systems. Increased agricultural productivity through the use of computers is limited less by available technology than our ability to disseminate and apply recent technological developments and information. Agricultural Extension programs face a daunting challenge in adapting their role as interface agents between current computer technology and the clientele they serve. To determine areas of current and future interests of computer applications in Extension, we used a trend analysis or extrapolation technique (Martino, 1971, 1983; Petroski, 1977). Trend analysis is a method using observational techniques and literature sources to identify patterns and predict future development. The best known example of trend analysis is Naisbitt's (1984) "Megatrends", wherein he noted that while fads are top-down, trends are from bottom-up. Trends may thus be viewed as grass-roots movements that originate where activities are operationalized. Current papers presented at conferences are reflective of such trends in the computing and communication field in much the same way that Naisbitt used columns and articles in newspapers to develop awareness of national trends. As our subject of observation we selected the "Proceedings" from the last four biannual International Conferences on Computers in Agricultural Extension programs (Bottcher and Zazueta, 1986; Zazueta and Bottcher, 1988; Zazueta et al., 1990; Watson et al., 1992) as the analytic point of departure for this trend analysis. While limited in scope, the Proceedings reflected current broad interests and concerns in the extension field. At the same time, they were forward-looking in nature, emphasizing state-of-the-art applications and development of computing systems and programs. Subject matter categories for each year were listed as they appeared in the Proceedings. The number of articles in each main category were tallied for the corresponding years. An example of a main category would be "Financial Management Applications." Each category for the first three years of Proceedings (1986, 1988, and 1990) was summed and then rank ordered. This ranking indicates the categories generating the most interest, as measured by the total number of papers presented.
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241
Table 1 An example of category overlap within and across years Year
Application
Number of articles presented
1986
Dairy Science Animal and Poultry Science Animal Science
10 5 14
1988
Animal and Dairy Science
10
1990
Animal Science Dairy Science
18 6
For example, Financial Management Applications received the number one ranking with a total of 48 papers presented over three Proceedings. Overlap between categories posed difficulties for analysis. For instance, articles which discussed Expert Systems appeared in the areas of Animal Science, Poultry Science, Dairy Science, and Expert Systems in the 1986 Proceedings. Further, crossinterest in topics was apparent between Animal Science, Poultry Science, and Dairy Science from year to year as they were paired differently for each Proceedings. Table 1 illustrates the degree of overlap between areas within the same year of Proceedings, and much reorganizing of material across the years. Nevertheless, trends may be observed from these past Proceedings and frequency of occurrence of topics may be of interest to computer support efforts. Therefore, for this analysis, we listed categories as reported in each of the Proceedings. First, average paper frequency for topics appearing in the bi-annual Proceedings was determined (Table 2). Then, we calculated a weighted average which emphasized more recent periods for each category. This weighted average was compared to the average values to determine the presence of a trend. The weights, for 1986, 1988, and 1990 were 0.233, 0.333, and 0.434, respectively. These values represent an equidistant weighting structure 1 designed to enhance the effects of any positive or negative trend, without undue exaggeration, in the number of publications appearing in any specific category. If the emergence and development of a topic is indeed reflective of grass-roots interest in the computing and communication field, then we would expect a positive trend in paper frequency for that category. Based on the trends, we then predicted the topics which would generate the most interest in 1992, and the topics which might experience declining interest. These 1 Weighting the data by year was desired to reflect a graduated increase in value, thereby enhancing any trend present. Weighting was determined using the following equation: 1.0 = w + (to + 0.1) + (w + 0.2) 1.0 ~ 3w + 0.3 0.233 = w The most recent period has 0.001 added to compensate for rounding error. If we let w = 1986; (w + 0.1) = 1988; and (w + 0.2) = 1990, weighted values become 0.233, 0.333, and 0.434 respectively.
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Table 2 Categories and article frequency Rank and Heading
l. Financial Management Applications 2. Expert Systems 3. Software Development and Training 4. Animal Science Applications 5. Network/County Extension Applications 6. Dairy Science/Applications 7. Marketing and Financial Applications 8. Training and Educational Programs 9. Agricultural Engineering 10. Weather/Climate/Geographic Information 11. Modeling/Model Engineering and Support 12. Agricultural Management 12. Home Management/Economics 12. Policy and Planning 15. County Office Management/4-H Programs 16. Computer Aided Management and Support 17. Editorial and Visual 17. Animal and Poultry Science Applications 19. Data Acquisition and Control 19. Pest Management Information Systems 19. Soil Survey and Test Programs 22. Marine and Aquaculture Annual totals
Number of articles 1986
1988
1990
10 4 20 14 a 5 10 a 9
27 18 10 a 14 10 a 13
11 22 5 18 a 11 6a -
11
10
Subject totals
SA
10 8
7 8
-
-
5
7
9 8
7 5 8 -
4 6 3 -
48 44 35 32 30 26 22 21 17 16 12 11 11 11 9 8
-
4
1
5
1.67
5a
_a
_a
5
-
4
-
4
4 4
-
-
4 4
1.67 1.33 1.33 1.33
-
3
-
3
1.0
-
120
154
104
378
16.0 14.67 11.67 10.67 10.0 8.67 7.33 7.0 5.67 5.33 4.0 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.0 2.67
126
WA
16.1 16.46 10.16 11.07 10.43 8.26 6.43 8.0 5.36 4.52 4.7 4.07 4.26 3.96 2.1 1.86 1.76 1.17 1.33 0.93 0.93 1.0
+/-
+ + + +
+
+ + + + 0
0
124
SA = simple average over 3 observations. WA = weighted using these values: most recent period = 0.434; second most recent period = 0.333; oldest period = 0.233. + / - = trend direction ( " + " for positive; " - " for negative; "0" for no change). 1988 1990 Average Number of topics deleted from previous year 6 5 5.5 Number of topics added since previous year 8 0 4.0 Number of topics reappearing after one year's absence NA 1 0.5 a Demonstrates how major headings have shifted in name and how similar or related articles could be grouped differently. This can create confusion and resists categorization. For example, consider these actual headings with correspondent number of articles for each year.
predictions were derived from frequencies observed within and among categories f r o m t h e 1986, 1988, a n d 1990 P r o c e e d i n g s . A s i m p l e t r e n d e x t r a p o l a t i o n i n t o t h e future, with adjustments for gaps in appearance of subject matter categories at any of the past Proceedings provided the foundation for the predictions. Table 3 shows the predicted rankings for the top ten categories in terms of total papers expected i n t h e 1992 P r o c e e d i n g s . Finally, the actual number of articles appearing under major category headings i n t h e 1 9 9 2 P r o c e e d i n g s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 4.
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Table 3 Predictions and results for 1992 Predicted rank, 1992 1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Acual rank, 1992
Category
Predicted number of papers, 1992
Actual number of papers, 1992
5a (-) 3 1 4 11 5a 17 7 (-)
Financial Management Applications Expert Systems* Animal Science Applications Networking/County Extension Software Development and Training** Dairy Science Applications Training and Educational Programs Marketing and Financial Applications Agricultural Engineering Modeling/Model Engineering and Support
16 16 11 10 10 8 8 6 5 5 5
9 0 11 12 10 6 9 3 7 0 0
Number of new categories: Number of deleted categories: Number of categories reappearing: Total number of papers in Proceedings
Expected in 1992 6 4
Actual in 1992 8 4
1
3
124
135
* This is the only category experiencing a positive trend for all three proceedings (1986, 1988, 1990). ** This is the only category experiencing a negative trend for all three proceedings. a Tie. ( - ) : Denotes that this category failed to appear in the 1992 proceedings. Table 4 Actual rank and categories for 1992 Rank l 1
3 4 5 5 5 5 9 10 11 11 11 14 14 14 17 17 17
Number of papers
Category
12
Network/County Extension Applications Information Systems a Animal Science Applications Software Development and Training Financial Management Applications Training and Educational Programs Policy and Planning Crop Production a Water Resources a Agricultural Management Dairy Science Applications Financial Decision Support a Nutrient Management a Forestry a Pest Management lnfomation Systems b Youth Programs a Marketing and Financial Applications b Marine and Aquaculture b Software Marketing a
12 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 3 3
a New category. b Reappearance after absence from last proceedings.
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3. Results and discussion
Analysis of the trends over consecutive conferences (1986, 1988, and 1990) allowed us to make a prediction for the 1992 conference and test the strength of trends. Based on analysis of the rank ordered categories (Table 2), predictions were made for the top ten categories in terms of volume of papers expected under topic headings (Table 3). Both the expected rank, and the number of expected articles were predicted for the 1992 Proceedings. Additional predictions were (1) the expected number of new categories; (2) the expected number of categories which would be deleted; (3) the expected number of categories to reappear after at least one conference hiatus; and, (4) the total expected number of papers in the Proceedings. When comparing the predicted ranks and number of papers to the actual rank of topics and papers for the 1992 Proceedings (Tables 3 and 4), results of the prediction were mixed. Of the top ten category predictions, six of the predicted topics actually made the top ten rank for the 1992 Proceedings: (1) Financial Management Applications, (2) Animal Science Applications, (3) Networking/County Extension, (4) Software Development and Training, (5) Training and Educational Programs, and (6) Agricultural Engineering. Two categories that were predicted to be in the top ten were ranked lower in the Proceedings (Dairy Science Application, ranked l l t h with six papers, and Marketing and Financial Applications, ranked 17th with three papers). The number of papers for two topics were predicted accurately. (Animal Science Applications, 11 papers, and Software Development and Training, 10 papers). We predicted that six new categories would appear, based on an average of 1988 and 1990 conferences, but there were eight new categories in 1992. The number of deleted categories was predicted accurately at four, the number of topics to re-emerge, predicted as one was actually three, and the total number of papers in the 1992 Proceedings exceed expectations by 11 papers (at a total of 135 papers). Initially, the most surprising finding was that two of the topics failed to appear in the 1992 Proceedings that we had predicted would be present in the top ten rank - - Expert Systems and Modeling/Model Engineering and Support. Noteworthy in its absence, Expert Systems was the only category which experienced a positive trend in each of the three previous conferences; thus this topic would have been least suspected to be absent from subsequent proceedings. However, the drop in Expert Systems as a general category may be partially explained by the surge in specific applications of expert systems to aspects of agricultural management. Animal, Dairy, and Poultry Science Applications, Financial Management Applications, Crop Production, and Nutrient Management are just a few areas which could gain from disseminating information about the benefits of expert systems applications. In effect, there are two trends at work here. First, the interest in adopting expert systems as a tool demonstrates the general trend towards acceptance of technology in agricultural management; a second trend indicated by the absence of the general topic of expert systems illustrates increasing grass-roots which has been adopted by the field. That is, interest in expert systems as a novelty has been replaced by acceptance to such an extent that expert systems is now becoming "mainstream" technology for agricultural management.
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Other surprising findings were new categories which were ranked in the top ten for 1992: Information Systems, tied for rank 1 (12 papers); Crop Production, tied for rank 5 (9 papers); and Water Resources, rank 9 (8 papers). With the national and state extension initiatives in water, this result seems very logical. The number one ranking of both the Network/County Extension Applications and the Information Systems categories in the 1992 Proceedings reflects, we believe, the USDP/s interest and emphasis on these topics. While many states were in the process of developing their state-wide networks, the national linkages, activities, and support from the Extension System-USDA seems to have had a very positive effect. The same reasoning may be applied to the Information Systems category. Overall, it appears that trend analysis can provide some benefit in predicting the relative importance of the role of certain topics in future Proceedings. This supports the contention that grass-roots interest will likely create momentum for frequency of paper presentations within a topic area. It also seems apparent that trend analysis may aid in the development of hypotheses which explains the underlying causes of these trends. Table 5, which ranks cumulative totals for all topics through the 1992 proceedings, indicates that the topic generating the greatest frequency of articles by far is Financial Management Applications. Financial Management Applications peaked during the 1988 Proceedings at 27 articles (Table 2) and has declined since to a more moderate frequency of occurrence (Nine papers for the 1992 Proceedings, Table 3). The number of articles appearing in this category may reflect concern over the number of farm failures in the last decade and the continuing importance of maintaining a healthy cash flow. Future research may focus on the effectiveness of various financial programs. Financial condition could be measured before and after use of financial programs; however, economic conditions in general and catastrophic events will likely need to be controlled for. The second highest cumulative ranked single topic was software development and training. This was the most popular topic in 1986 (with 20 articles presented) and was the only topic to appear in three consecutive Proceedings that had also experienced a declining trend, each time diminishing by half annually in 1988, and in 1990. It has since moderated in 1992 represented by 10 papers. Related topics could also include Training and Educational Programs (ranked eight, but appearing in only 1988 and 1990) and Software Marketing (new in 1992 and represented by three papers). It is presumed that interest in this area reflects a desire for new software to be more "needs" driven, rather than technology driven, and more user oriented. If taken in total, applications for farm productivity in general would result in the highest ranking topic (Table 5). The topics under farm productivity would include Financial Management, rank 1; Animal Science, 4; Dairy Science, 6; Marketing and Financial, 8; Crop Production, 9; Pest Management, 8; Financial Decision Support, 6; Marine and Aquaculture, 6; Nutrient Management, 6; and, Animal and Poultry Science, 5. Future research in this area should determine if there is a proliferation of computer application technology which is little used by the ultimate end user, the
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Table 5 Rank order of topics based on total frequency (sums of papers presented 1986 through 1992) Rank
Topic
Frequency
1
Financial Management Applications Software Development and Training Expert Systems Animal Science Applications Network/County Extension Applications Dairy Science Applications Training and Educational Programs Marketing and Financial Applications Policy and Planning Agriculture Management Agricultural Engineering Weather/Climate/Geographic Information Information Systems Modeling/Model Engineering and Support Home Management/Economics County Office Management and 4-H Programs Crop Production Computer Aided Management and Support Pest Management Information Systems Water Resources Financial Decision Support Marine and Aquaculture Nutrient Management Animal and Poultry Science Editorial and Visual Data Acquisition and Control Forestry Soil Survey and Testing Programs Youth Programs Software Marketing
57 45 44 43 42 32 30 25 20 18 17 16 12 12 11 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 18
21
24 26
30
producer, or if the end user is driving technology to answer the question of how to be more competitive through increased productivity, leading to a proliferation of these types of applications. Although the general topic area of Expert Systems has dropped in cumulative rank from number two in 1990 to number three in 1992, this review shows an explosion of interest in expert systems and development of software for specific applications; for example, to specific animals, crops and by region. However, there is little evidence of coordination or information sharing. If a product/market life cycle (Digman, 1990)2 were used to evaluate the phase 2 The product/market life cycle is a marketing model which aids in understanding how products are accepted into the market place and how markets develop. The model has been routinely incorporated into strategic management textbooks and is used extensively by strategists as a tool to (1) help plan product development and introduction, (2) understand business and industry structure changes over the course of the life cycle, (3) aid in the identification of declining products and industries, and,
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of expert systems in an agricultural context, we would undoubtedly see these systems placed in the early maturity phase. Digman notes five primary phases for products or markets - - introduction, growth, shakeout, maturation, and decline. In contrast, software development and training issues would appear to be in the late maturity/early decline phase. Typically, during the growth phase, manufacturers vie for dominance and work at developing better products. This has been true of most expert systems. However, in the maturity stage, relative stability reigns, with more attention devoted to improvement and refinement. Thus it is at the beginning of the maturity stage that we find expert systems; the application of expert systems is undergoing improvement and refinement with a reduced emphasis on development of all new applications. Software development, in comparison, is becoming much more routinized, with some experts predicting that routine parts of most software will be generated automatically by the year 2003 (Halal, 1992). The amount of overlap of topic areas appears worthy of future study. An example of one set of overlapping topics includes financial/profit/pricing considerations under financial management, expert systems, home economics, animal science and policy and planning. This can be an area which would benefit from cooperative activities of integration and standardization. There also appeared to be increased interest in end-user input in software development. Adopting standardized formats using integrated end-user inputs could lead to more effective programs, more efficiently developed. 4. Limitations
There are limitations to this study. First, the scope of the data is somewhat limited. There may be some bias in the types of articles accepted, leading to spurious results. However, it may be argued that the "Proceedings" surveyed are representative of grass-roots movements and interests of the target population - University Extension personnel - - and that, over time, the topics of interest at this one conference source would reflect the predominant interests of the field. Future studies should expand the resource base to cover a greater variety of computer uses in agricultural extension at different land grant universities, and include surveys of extension agents. A second limitation is the inexact nature of trend analysis. This article has demonstrated the difficulty of exact prediction for the number of articles for a given topic in a given year. It is unlikely that this limitation would be overcome through the use of a larger data set. What is important is that general topic directions and estimated magnitude are identified. To prepare strategically for the future, it is preferable that our predictions be approximately right than precisely wrong. (4) determine investment and market strategies appropriate for life cycle stages. The underlying assumption of the product/market life cycle model is that there are identifiable and predictable trends for product innovation and acceptance. Therefore, the product/market life cycle model is appropriate to use in this paper to illustrate the development, introduction, acceptance, and de-selection of specific technological applications.
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5. Future directions
Based on the above analysis, future predictions would include: (1) continued overlap of categories, especially among expert systems to other areas. (2) signs of convergence on the notion that technology must be harnessed with the production of applications using existing technology. Underlying this convergence will be a greater understanding of the needs, abilities, and technological aptitude of the end-user; and, (3) training and education will continuing in importance until disparity between computer literate and non-computer literates is vitiated. The real challenge is predicting topics of interest 5-10 years from now, thus providing an interesting topic for future research. One suitable approach to this research should include the Delphi Method as demonstrated by Brancheau and Wetherbe (1987) References Bottcher, A.B. and Zazueta, ES. (Editors) (1986) Proceedings of the International Conference on Computers in Agricultural Extension Programs. Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, and University of Florida. Brancheau, J.C. and Wetherbe, J.C. (1987) Key Issues in Information Systems Management. MIS Q., March, pp. 23-45. Digman, L.A. (1990) Strategic Management: Concepts, Decisions, Cases, 2. BPI/Irwin, Homewood, IL. Halal, W.E. (1992) The information technology revolution. The Futurist, 26(4): 10-15 Love, D.O., Rowley, J.L., Kim, B.O., Everett, A.M., Singleton, K.M., White, EA., King, J.W. and Lee, S.M. (1990) Evaluation study to bring science and education into the modern era of management of information and decision assistance technologies: Final Report. Submitted to Extension Service, United States Department of Agriculture. Martino, J.P. (1971) Example of technological trend forecasting for research and development planning. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 2: 247-260. Martino, J.P. (1983) Technological Forecasting for Decision Making. North-Holland, New York, NY. Naisbitt, J. (1984) Megatrends. Warner Books, New York, NY. Petroski, H.J. (1977) Trends in Applied Mechanics Literature. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 10: 309-318. Watson, D.G., Zazueta, ES. and Bottcher, A.B. (Editors) (1992) Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Computers in Agricultural Extension Programs. Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, and University of Florida. Zazueta, ES. and Bottcher, A.B. (Editors) (1988) Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Computers in Agricultural Extension Programs. American Society of Agricultural Engineers, St. Joseph, MI. Zazueta, ES., Watson, D.G. and Bottcher, A.B. (Editors) (1990) Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Computers in Agricultural Extension Programs. Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, and University of Florida.
Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 11 (1994) 239-248
A trend analysis of computing in agricultural extension M.W. Wakefield a, J.W. King b,. a College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68588, USA b Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Communication and Computing Service Unit, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68583, USA Accepted 24 June 1994
Abstract
The role that computers play in agriculture has evolved over time from simplistic record keeping and spreadsheets, to incorporating expert systems to solve complex problems and manage complete farm systems. Increased agricultural productivity through the use of computers is limited less by available technology than our ability to disseminate and apply recent technological developments and information. Agricultural Extension programs face a daunting challenge in adapting their role as interface agents between current computer technology and the clientele they serve. This paper evaluates trends observed over time from the "Proceedings" of Agricultural Extension for 1986, 1988, and 1990 to identify "grass roots movements" in the field that could help Extension agents prepare for this challenge. A priori predictions for the next "Proceedings" (1992) were based on trends from past "Proceedings" and were generally supported by subject material contained in the 1992 "Proceedings". A surprise finding was that Expert Systems, predicted to be the topic area generating the greatest number of articles, was conspicuously absent in the 1992 "Proceedings". Cursory analysis indicated that Expert Systems had been subsumed under other categories, thereby indicating more widespread acceptance in the field for this technological support. The product market life cycle is used to explain how technology such as Expert Systems is introduced and becomes accepted.
Keywords: Extension; Trends; Future; Life cycle; Software; Applications I. Introduction
Computers and their applications are now pervasive throughout the agricultural community - - from the land grant system to the farm tractor. Based on this * Corresponding author. Part of this paper was prepared with the support of USDA Cooperative Agreement No. 89-EXCA3-0982. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the USDA or the University of Nebraska. 0168-1699/94/$07.00 © 1994 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. SSDI 0 1 6 8 - 1 6 9 9 ( 9 4 ) 0 0 0 2 4 - 7
240
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widespread use, the Science and Education group of the United States Department of Agriculture (S&E USDA) commissioned a study on the management of computer support systems in agriculture (Love et al., 1990). The study we are reporting grew out of that larger study on agricultural computer systems. Using trend analysis, this paper will identify thrusts and future directions in the development of computer applications in the agricultural and natural resources sector, within the extension arena specifically. The outcome of this analysis provides material for further discussion, and may help administrators and computer and communication personnel to better position themselves to implement and operationalize key management actions. 2. Methods and procedures
The role that computers play in agriculture has evolved over time from simplistic record keeping and spreadsheets, to incorporating expert systems to solve complex problems and manage complete farm systems. Increased agricultural productivity through the use of computers is limited less by available technology than our ability to disseminate and apply recent technological developments and information. Agricultural Extension programs face a daunting challenge in adapting their role as interface agents between current computer technology and the clientele they serve. To determine areas of current and future interests of computer applications in Extension, we used a trend analysis or extrapolation technique (Martino, 1971, 1983; Petroski, 1977). Trend analysis is a method using observational techniques and literature sources to identify patterns and predict future development. The best known example of trend analysis is Naisbitt's (1984) "Megatrends", wherein he noted that while fads are top-down, trends are from bottom-up. Trends may thus be viewed as grass-roots movements that originate where activities are operationalized. Current papers presented at conferences are reflective of such trends in the computing and communication field in much the same way that Naisbitt used columns and articles in newspapers to develop awareness of national trends. As our subject of observation we selected the "Proceedings" from the last four biannual International Conferences on Computers in Agricultural Extension programs (Bottcher and Zazueta, 1986; Zazueta and Bottcher, 1988; Zazueta et al., 1990; Watson et al., 1992) as the analytic point of departure for this trend analysis. While limited in scope, the Proceedings reflected current broad interests and concerns in the extension field. At the same time, they were forward-looking in nature, emphasizing state-of-the-art applications and development of computing systems and programs. Subject matter categories for each year were listed as they appeared in the Proceedings. The number of articles in each main category were tallied for the corresponding years. An example of a main category would be "Financial Management Applications." Each category for the first three years of Proceedings (1986, 1988, and 1990) was summed and then rank ordered. This ranking indicates the categories generating the most interest, as measured by the total number of papers presented.
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241
Table 1 An example of category overlap within and across years Year
Application
Number of articles presented
1986
Dairy Science Animal and Poultry Science Animal Science
10 5 14
1988
Animal and Dairy Science
10
1990
Animal Science Dairy Science
18 6
For example, Financial Management Applications received the number one ranking with a total of 48 papers presented over three Proceedings. Overlap between categories posed difficulties for analysis. For instance, articles which discussed Expert Systems appeared in the areas of Animal Science, Poultry Science, Dairy Science, and Expert Systems in the 1986 Proceedings. Further, crossinterest in topics was apparent between Animal Science, Poultry Science, and Dairy Science from year to year as they were paired differently for each Proceedings. Table 1 illustrates the degree of overlap between areas within the same year of Proceedings, and much reorganizing of material across the years. Nevertheless, trends may be observed from these past Proceedings and frequency of occurrence of topics may be of interest to computer support efforts. Therefore, for this analysis, we listed categories as reported in each of the Proceedings. First, average paper frequency for topics appearing in the bi-annual Proceedings was determined (Table 2). Then, we calculated a weighted average which emphasized more recent periods for each category. This weighted average was compared to the average values to determine the presence of a trend. The weights, for 1986, 1988, and 1990 were 0.233, 0.333, and 0.434, respectively. These values represent an equidistant weighting structure 1 designed to enhance the effects of any positive or negative trend, without undue exaggeration, in the number of publications appearing in any specific category. If the emergence and development of a topic is indeed reflective of grass-roots interest in the computing and communication field, then we would expect a positive trend in paper frequency for that category. Based on the trends, we then predicted the topics which would generate the most interest in 1992, and the topics which might experience declining interest. These 1 Weighting the data by year was desired to reflect a graduated increase in value, thereby enhancing any trend present. Weighting was determined using the following equation: 1.0 = w + (to + 0.1) + (w + 0.2) 1.0 ~ 3w + 0.3 0.233 = w The most recent period has 0.001 added to compensate for rounding error. If we let w = 1986; (w + 0.1) = 1988; and (w + 0.2) = 1990, weighted values become 0.233, 0.333, and 0.434 respectively.
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Table 2 Categories and article frequency Rank and Heading
l. Financial Management Applications 2. Expert Systems 3. Software Development and Training 4. Animal Science Applications 5. Network/County Extension Applications 6. Dairy Science/Applications 7. Marketing and Financial Applications 8. Training and Educational Programs 9. Agricultural Engineering 10. Weather/Climate/Geographic Information 11. Modeling/Model Engineering and Support 12. Agricultural Management 12. Home Management/Economics 12. Policy and Planning 15. County Office Management/4-H Programs 16. Computer Aided Management and Support 17. Editorial and Visual 17. Animal and Poultry Science Applications 19. Data Acquisition and Control 19. Pest Management Information Systems 19. Soil Survey and Test Programs 22. Marine and Aquaculture Annual totals
Number of articles 1986
1988
1990
10 4 20 14 a 5 10 a 9
27 18 10 a 14 10 a 13
11 22 5 18 a 11 6a -
11
10
Subject totals
SA
10 8
7 8
-
-
5
7
9 8
7 5 8 -
4 6 3 -
48 44 35 32 30 26 22 21 17 16 12 11 11 11 9 8
-
4
1
5
1.67
5a
_a
_a
5
-
4
-
4
4 4
-
-
4 4
1.67 1.33 1.33 1.33
-
3
-
3
1.0
-
120
154
104
378
16.0 14.67 11.67 10.67 10.0 8.67 7.33 7.0 5.67 5.33 4.0 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.0 2.67
126
WA
16.1 16.46 10.16 11.07 10.43 8.26 6.43 8.0 5.36 4.52 4.7 4.07 4.26 3.96 2.1 1.86 1.76 1.17 1.33 0.93 0.93 1.0
+/-
+ + + +
+
+ + + + 0
0
124
SA = simple average over 3 observations. WA = weighted using these values: most recent period = 0.434; second most recent period = 0.333; oldest period = 0.233. + / - = trend direction ( " + " for positive; " - " for negative; "0" for no change). 1988 1990 Average Number of topics deleted from previous year 6 5 5.5 Number of topics added since previous year 8 0 4.0 Number of topics reappearing after one year's absence NA 1 0.5 a Demonstrates how major headings have shifted in name and how similar or related articles could be grouped differently. This can create confusion and resists categorization. For example, consider these actual headings with correspondent number of articles for each year.
predictions were derived from frequencies observed within and among categories f r o m t h e 1986, 1988, a n d 1990 P r o c e e d i n g s . A s i m p l e t r e n d e x t r a p o l a t i o n i n t o t h e future, with adjustments for gaps in appearance of subject matter categories at any of the past Proceedings provided the foundation for the predictions. Table 3 shows the predicted rankings for the top ten categories in terms of total papers expected i n t h e 1992 P r o c e e d i n g s . Finally, the actual number of articles appearing under major category headings i n t h e 1 9 9 2 P r o c e e d i n g s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 4.
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Table 3 Predictions and results for 1992 Predicted rank, 1992 1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Acual rank, 1992
Category
Predicted number of papers, 1992
Actual number of papers, 1992
5a (-) 3 1 4 11 5a 17 7 (-)
Financial Management Applications Expert Systems* Animal Science Applications Networking/County Extension Software Development and Training** Dairy Science Applications Training and Educational Programs Marketing and Financial Applications Agricultural Engineering Modeling/Model Engineering and Support
16 16 11 10 10 8 8 6 5 5 5
9 0 11 12 10 6 9 3 7 0 0
Number of new categories: Number of deleted categories: Number of categories reappearing: Total number of papers in Proceedings
Expected in 1992 6 4
Actual in 1992 8 4
1
3
124
135
* This is the only category experiencing a positive trend for all three proceedings (1986, 1988, 1990). ** This is the only category experiencing a negative trend for all three proceedings. a Tie. ( - ) : Denotes that this category failed to appear in the 1992 proceedings. Table 4 Actual rank and categories for 1992 Rank l 1
3 4 5 5 5 5 9 10 11 11 11 14 14 14 17 17 17
Number of papers
Category
12
Network/County Extension Applications Information Systems a Animal Science Applications Software Development and Training Financial Management Applications Training and Educational Programs Policy and Planning Crop Production a Water Resources a Agricultural Management Dairy Science Applications Financial Decision Support a Nutrient Management a Forestry a Pest Management lnfomation Systems b Youth Programs a Marketing and Financial Applications b Marine and Aquaculture b Software Marketing a
12 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 3 3
a New category. b Reappearance after absence from last proceedings.
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3. Results and discussion
Analysis of the trends over consecutive conferences (1986, 1988, and 1990) allowed us to make a prediction for the 1992 conference and test the strength of trends. Based on analysis of the rank ordered categories (Table 2), predictions were made for the top ten categories in terms of volume of papers expected under topic headings (Table 3). Both the expected rank, and the number of expected articles were predicted for the 1992 Proceedings. Additional predictions were (1) the expected number of new categories; (2) the expected number of categories which would be deleted; (3) the expected number of categories to reappear after at least one conference hiatus; and, (4) the total expected number of papers in the Proceedings. When comparing the predicted ranks and number of papers to the actual rank of topics and papers for the 1992 Proceedings (Tables 3 and 4), results of the prediction were mixed. Of the top ten category predictions, six of the predicted topics actually made the top ten rank for the 1992 Proceedings: (1) Financial Management Applications, (2) Animal Science Applications, (3) Networking/County Extension, (4) Software Development and Training, (5) Training and Educational Programs, and (6) Agricultural Engineering. Two categories that were predicted to be in the top ten were ranked lower in the Proceedings (Dairy Science Application, ranked l l t h with six papers, and Marketing and Financial Applications, ranked 17th with three papers). The number of papers for two topics were predicted accurately. (Animal Science Applications, 11 papers, and Software Development and Training, 10 papers). We predicted that six new categories would appear, based on an average of 1988 and 1990 conferences, but there were eight new categories in 1992. The number of deleted categories was predicted accurately at four, the number of topics to re-emerge, predicted as one was actually three, and the total number of papers in the 1992 Proceedings exceed expectations by 11 papers (at a total of 135 papers). Initially, the most surprising finding was that two of the topics failed to appear in the 1992 Proceedings that we had predicted would be present in the top ten rank - - Expert Systems and Modeling/Model Engineering and Support. Noteworthy in its absence, Expert Systems was the only category which experienced a positive trend in each of the three previous conferences; thus this topic would have been least suspected to be absent from subsequent proceedings. However, the drop in Expert Systems as a general category may be partially explained by the surge in specific applications of expert systems to aspects of agricultural management. Animal, Dairy, and Poultry Science Applications, Financial Management Applications, Crop Production, and Nutrient Management are just a few areas which could gain from disseminating information about the benefits of expert systems applications. In effect, there are two trends at work here. First, the interest in adopting expert systems as a tool demonstrates the general trend towards acceptance of technology in agricultural management; a second trend indicated by the absence of the general topic of expert systems illustrates increasing grass-roots which has been adopted by the field. That is, interest in expert systems as a novelty has been replaced by acceptance to such an extent that expert systems is now becoming "mainstream" technology for agricultural management.
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Other surprising findings were new categories which were ranked in the top ten for 1992: Information Systems, tied for rank 1 (12 papers); Crop Production, tied for rank 5 (9 papers); and Water Resources, rank 9 (8 papers). With the national and state extension initiatives in water, this result seems very logical. The number one ranking of both the Network/County Extension Applications and the Information Systems categories in the 1992 Proceedings reflects, we believe, the USDP/s interest and emphasis on these topics. While many states were in the process of developing their state-wide networks, the national linkages, activities, and support from the Extension System-USDA seems to have had a very positive effect. The same reasoning may be applied to the Information Systems category. Overall, it appears that trend analysis can provide some benefit in predicting the relative importance of the role of certain topics in future Proceedings. This supports the contention that grass-roots interest will likely create momentum for frequency of paper presentations within a topic area. It also seems apparent that trend analysis may aid in the development of hypotheses which explains the underlying causes of these trends. Table 5, which ranks cumulative totals for all topics through the 1992 proceedings, indicates that the topic generating the greatest frequency of articles by far is Financial Management Applications. Financial Management Applications peaked during the 1988 Proceedings at 27 articles (Table 2) and has declined since to a more moderate frequency of occurrence (Nine papers for the 1992 Proceedings, Table 3). The number of articles appearing in this category may reflect concern over the number of farm failures in the last decade and the continuing importance of maintaining a healthy cash flow. Future research may focus on the effectiveness of various financial programs. Financial condition could be measured before and after use of financial programs; however, economic conditions in general and catastrophic events will likely need to be controlled for. The second highest cumulative ranked single topic was software development and training. This was the most popular topic in 1986 (with 20 articles presented) and was the only topic to appear in three consecutive Proceedings that had also experienced a declining trend, each time diminishing by half annually in 1988, and in 1990. It has since moderated in 1992 represented by 10 papers. Related topics could also include Training and Educational Programs (ranked eight, but appearing in only 1988 and 1990) and Software Marketing (new in 1992 and represented by three papers). It is presumed that interest in this area reflects a desire for new software to be more "needs" driven, rather than technology driven, and more user oriented. If taken in total, applications for farm productivity in general would result in the highest ranking topic (Table 5). The topics under farm productivity would include Financial Management, rank 1; Animal Science, 4; Dairy Science, 6; Marketing and Financial, 8; Crop Production, 9; Pest Management, 8; Financial Decision Support, 6; Marine and Aquaculture, 6; Nutrient Management, 6; and, Animal and Poultry Science, 5. Future research in this area should determine if there is a proliferation of computer application technology which is little used by the ultimate end user, the
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Table 5 Rank order of topics based on total frequency (sums of papers presented 1986 through 1992) Rank
Topic
Frequency
1
Financial Management Applications Software Development and Training Expert Systems Animal Science Applications Network/County Extension Applications Dairy Science Applications Training and Educational Programs Marketing and Financial Applications Policy and Planning Agriculture Management Agricultural Engineering Weather/Climate/Geographic Information Information Systems Modeling/Model Engineering and Support Home Management/Economics County Office Management and 4-H Programs Crop Production Computer Aided Management and Support Pest Management Information Systems Water Resources Financial Decision Support Marine and Aquaculture Nutrient Management Animal and Poultry Science Editorial and Visual Data Acquisition and Control Forestry Soil Survey and Testing Programs Youth Programs Software Marketing
57 45 44 43 42 32 30 25 20 18 17 16 12 12 11 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 18
21
24 26
30
producer, or if the end user is driving technology to answer the question of how to be more competitive through increased productivity, leading to a proliferation of these types of applications. Although the general topic area of Expert Systems has dropped in cumulative rank from number two in 1990 to number three in 1992, this review shows an explosion of interest in expert systems and development of software for specific applications; for example, to specific animals, crops and by region. However, there is little evidence of coordination or information sharing. If a product/market life cycle (Digman, 1990)2 were used to evaluate the phase 2 The product/market life cycle is a marketing model which aids in understanding how products are accepted into the market place and how markets develop. The model has been routinely incorporated into strategic management textbooks and is used extensively by strategists as a tool to (1) help plan product development and introduction, (2) understand business and industry structure changes over the course of the life cycle, (3) aid in the identification of declining products and industries, and,
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of expert systems in an agricultural context, we would undoubtedly see these systems placed in the early maturity phase. Digman notes five primary phases for products or markets - - introduction, growth, shakeout, maturation, and decline. In contrast, software development and training issues would appear to be in the late maturity/early decline phase. Typically, during the growth phase, manufacturers vie for dominance and work at developing better products. This has been true of most expert systems. However, in the maturity stage, relative stability reigns, with more attention devoted to improvement and refinement. Thus it is at the beginning of the maturity stage that we find expert systems; the application of expert systems is undergoing improvement and refinement with a reduced emphasis on development of all new applications. Software development, in comparison, is becoming much more routinized, with some experts predicting that routine parts of most software will be generated automatically by the year 2003 (Halal, 1992). The amount of overlap of topic areas appears worthy of future study. An example of one set of overlapping topics includes financial/profit/pricing considerations under financial management, expert systems, home economics, animal science and policy and planning. This can be an area which would benefit from cooperative activities of integration and standardization. There also appeared to be increased interest in end-user input in software development. Adopting standardized formats using integrated end-user inputs could lead to more effective programs, more efficiently developed. 4. Limitations
There are limitations to this study. First, the scope of the data is somewhat limited. There may be some bias in the types of articles accepted, leading to spurious results. However, it may be argued that the "Proceedings" surveyed are representative of grass-roots movements and interests of the target population - University Extension personnel - - and that, over time, the topics of interest at this one conference source would reflect the predominant interests of the field. Future studies should expand the resource base to cover a greater variety of computer uses in agricultural extension at different land grant universities, and include surveys of extension agents. A second limitation is the inexact nature of trend analysis. This article has demonstrated the difficulty of exact prediction for the number of articles for a given topic in a given year. It is unlikely that this limitation would be overcome through the use of a larger data set. What is important is that general topic directions and estimated magnitude are identified. To prepare strategically for the future, it is preferable that our predictions be approximately right than precisely wrong. (4) determine investment and market strategies appropriate for life cycle stages. The underlying assumption of the product/market life cycle model is that there are identifiable and predictable trends for product innovation and acceptance. Therefore, the product/market life cycle model is appropriate to use in this paper to illustrate the development, introduction, acceptance, and de-selection of specific technological applications.
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5. Future directions
Based on the above analysis, future predictions would include: (1) continued overlap of categories, especially among expert systems to other areas. (2) signs of convergence on the notion that technology must be harnessed with the production of applications using existing technology. Underlying this convergence will be a greater understanding of the needs, abilities, and technological aptitude of the end-user; and, (3) training and education will continuing in importance until disparity between computer literate and non-computer literates is vitiated. The real challenge is predicting topics of interest 5-10 years from now, thus providing an interesting topic for future research. One suitable approach to this research should include the Delphi Method as demonstrated by Brancheau and Wetherbe (1987) References Bottcher, A.B. and Zazueta, ES. (Editors) (1986) Proceedings of the International Conference on Computers in Agricultural Extension Programs. Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, and University of Florida. Brancheau, J.C. and Wetherbe, J.C. (1987) Key Issues in Information Systems Management. MIS Q., March, pp. 23-45. Digman, L.A. (1990) Strategic Management: Concepts, Decisions, Cases, 2. BPI/Irwin, Homewood, IL. Halal, W.E. (1992) The information technology revolution. The Futurist, 26(4): 10-15 Love, D.O., Rowley, J.L., Kim, B.O., Everett, A.M., Singleton, K.M., White, EA., King, J.W. and Lee, S.M. (1990) Evaluation study to bring science and education into the modern era of management of information and decision assistance technologies: Final Report. Submitted to Extension Service, United States Department of Agriculture. Martino, J.P. (1971) Example of technological trend forecasting for research and development planning. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 2: 247-260. Martino, J.P. (1983) Technological Forecasting for Decision Making. North-Holland, New York, NY. Naisbitt, J. (1984) Megatrends. Warner Books, New York, NY. Petroski, H.J. (1977) Trends in Applied Mechanics Literature. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 10: 309-318. Watson, D.G., Zazueta, ES. and Bottcher, A.B. (Editors) (1992) Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Computers in Agricultural Extension Programs. Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, and University of Florida. Zazueta, ES. and Bottcher, A.B. (Editors) (1988) Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Computers in Agricultural Extension Programs. American Society of Agricultural Engineers, St. Joseph, MI. Zazueta, ES., Watson, D.G. and Bottcher, A.B. (Editors) (1990) Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Computers in Agricultural Extension Programs. Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, and University of Florida.