A viewpoint on innovation and the chemical industry

a viewpoint on innovation and the chemical industry* by U. COLOMBO Comitato Nazionale per I'Energia Nucleare, Casell~, Postale 2358,

00100 Rome, Italy I. A SHORT HISTORICAL ANALYSIS: I. The chemical industry is an inherently innovative industry. It is in fact characterized by the production of new compounds, products and materials which integrate or replace natural ones and which therefore require processes and utilization methods different from those already known. From this standpoint the chemical industry is innovative not only ir its own field but also in other fields which its innovations affect. 2 This is not just a recent development but is closely related to the very nature of the chemical industry. This is clearly shown by the development ~t thi.~ industry in the 19th century up to the first part of the 20th, from chemical fertilizers to synthetic dyestuffs, trom pi~armaceuticals to the main products of inorganic chemistry, from coal derivatives to explosives. to th,.' first polymeric materials, plastics and fibr,:s. 3. The introductit, n of each of these products or ,:ff each family of prodl~cts has started and developed the innovatio=, pr".cess in ti~e related fields of agriculture, industry anti even service activities, which tht:s has opened up for them prospects previously undream.~d of. it can be rightly said that research and innovation in chemistry art; at the base of a ~arge number of economic and social conquests of the modern world. 4. in this historical framework it must be remembered, however, that some fundamentally chemical discoveries and innovation~ are aLo ~t the base of developments ~ hich can hardly be said to revolve progre~;s in the sense we h:tve.just menti,med. It is st~fficient ta consider the large stctor of explo,,,ives, chemical weapons and the fundamcrtal contribution that

Paper prepared tor the O F C i ) Expert Gioup on Science and lechnology in the ~ev~ Economic Contexl. lhe author v,a.~ un:ll 1978 Director of Montedison', Research and De~,cl~pment l)i~,ision in Milan. Ita',,~.

Re.get~rch Poh~ r 9 (1980) 204-231

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chemistry together with physics has more recently given to the development of nuclear weapons. 5. it is also easy to demonstrate th~',t the chemical industry has a much higher degree of innovation than other industrial sectors comparable to it in importance and impact :~n other production and service activities. For example the automotive industry was characterized by a gradual innovation rate without substantial breakthroughs and the same can be said far the metallurgical industry. On the other hand, we can see how important innovations in other industrial fields, such as the textile and the mechanical sectors, were often made possible by innovations in the chemical industry. Today electronics, automation and informatics are the main activities that stimulate innovation in the economy. Chemistry has also substantially contributed to this dexelopment, and has provided a whole range.of special new materials, and now innovation in the chemical industry is, in turn, pulled by the demand of electronics and related s/:ctors. 6. Experts on the chemical industry attributed to this industrial sector a particularly rapid innovation rate in the middle decades of our century, while in recent years this innovation rate seems to have slowed down: more specifically there would no longer be breakthrough type innovations as in the past. The retrospective analysis of the history of the chemical industry, with special reference to its innovation content, leads to the conclusion that the above rnt,ntioned decades were characterized by a consideraNe economic growtlL and, as far as chemistry is concerned, by the increasing mass usl: of mony of its products. This economic growth has in turn favoured a wide dif,usion of innovation, based essentially on fundamental discoveries which had in turn largely been achieved in previous years. On the other hand, t)~e situation concerning most recent developments is too complex and depends upon too many non-homogeneous factors (technological, economical, but also poli!ical and soci~ I) to be summarized in a mere affirmation of a slowdown in the process: it requires a much deeper analysis. 7. This paper, prepared for OECI) (Experv., Group on Science ~nd Technology in the Ntw Economic Context) as requestca in the first meeting held in Paris on Octt, ber 14 t5, 1976, is aimed at carrying out a preliminary analysis allowing us to go into this matter more deeply. To do this it is however necessary to examine with some atteation the basic aspects of innovation in the period running from the 193.)s to around 1970 - that is,. to the recent period of great development for the economy and m particular for ~he chemical indust~3 ~.

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2. T H E C H E M I C A l . I N I ) U S I R Y IN T H E P E R I O D 1930 1970 8. The aspect to be first outlined is the exceptional development of petrochemistry which dates back to the 193¢~s in the United States and to the postwar period in Europe. Though it has consumed a relatively sm~:ll quantity of petroleum it can be estimated at 5 7fi of overall consulnpzion the chemical industry played an esser~tiai role from the standpoint of the quality of this col~sumption. The development of the main polymers, for example, is related to the use of petroleum as raw material many of these polymers were discovered before World War 11 but their mass diffusion only took place after the war. [ h e y are the base of the enormous industrial development of man-made fibres, of plastics and of elastomers. 9. The development of man-made fibres not only made it possible to meet the increasing demands of textiles but also led to considerable innovations and an increase in prod,ctivity in the whole textile field This was due t3 the development of processes and equipment capable of exploiting the properties of the new materials and especially to the fact that it stimulated new responses in the sectors connected to the traditional (natural and cellulosic) fibres as xvell. t h e latter would certainly have been characterized by a more static development, but to survive they had to accept the challenge of the new products, thus giving origin ~.o an innovation process which was stimulating for both fields. It must also be considered that the new fibres have given rise to new needs in terms of dyestuffs, finishes, auxiliary products, etc. that the chemical industry was able to adequately meet. 10. Similar considerations can be made for plastics, which at first we~'e seen as substitutes for conventional materials such as wood. paper. metals, glass and ceramics, but which subsequently rose to the statos ol real basic materials ~hich are utilized for their intrinsic characteristic.. and whos, chemical, physical and structural properties should b: exploited to the full in order to allow new different applications. Wh.~t has been s~lid in paragraph 9 about natural fibres applies here too wit h reference to innovation in the products competing with plastic ma'~,.~rials. I'he dexelopment of improved traditional materials such as wood, paper. t~le~al allo}s, ceramics, and of the related technologies, ~ou',d have presumably been much more modest without the stimuh;; t,, the competitio~ of th.: nev,' plastic materials. Ii. SimiL'r considerations can also be made about elastomcrs in relation to natural JL~bber. Synthetic rubber, which ~as initially progosed

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as a sub~;titute of natural rubber in its principal applications, has also permitted the development of new uses (at high or low temperatures, in the pre'~;ence of oils or greases, ozone, etc). Competition has stimulated the natu~'al rubber producers who have spent hundreds of millions of dollars, obtaining new species that are far more productive (from 500 k g / h a / y r to 3500 k g ' h a / y r ) and identifying new methods of latex stimulation with ethylene which enable the latex flow from mature trees to be doubled, or more, in a few days, in contrast to the many years required for new plantings to reach maximum output. 12. Synthetic materials arc extremely versatile thanks to the wide range of characteristics ~'hich can be conferred on them by modi~,ing their chemical structure, through physical tre~tments in the preparation and processing of the material or of the manufactured product, or finally by compounding different materials and developing composites, i'his versatility, the possibility to "invent' new materials for new technological applications, the ease with which the material can be synthesited near the market of use, while many traditional materials are produced only in certain well-defined areas, and the availability of a low-price raw material common to all these new products made possible a massive replacement of the natural products. 13. It must also be considered that the traditional chemical industries, where the scientific discoveries were made, were joined by a whole series of other industries (oil, rubbe:, textile industries, etc.) exploiting the new materials. There are many r.':~sons which induced non-chemical enterprises to take advantage of thls o~portunity. They are to be found either in the availability of oil and ~f adequate refining capacity, or in the availability of the considerable financial means e~sential for these capitalintensive activities (since many traditional chemical enterprises did not readily dispose o'f such huge means), o-, again, in the fact of bei'~g already present in international markets, t~r, as in the case of the rubter and tradiLtional fibres sectors, in th: fear oi being gradually squee~,ed out of their activities by the side-entry of compt~itors from lhe chemic~ll industry. 14. There has consequently been ~ growth of new protagonists ~,ho brought new points of view, chawging the traditional views of the chemica~ industry. All this has implied ~ renovation of the business approach with important consequences for the industrial sectors involved and, in general, for the whole industry and economy. 15. As to chemical products for agriculture, after the. gigantic developments in the chemical fertilizers through the first half of thir, century, the

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main innovations concerned the pesticides sector. Together with the parallel development of agricultural mechanization, pestLcides played an essential role in achieving continuous increases in agricultural productivity thus allowing labour migration from agriculture to industry and services as needed by the more industrialized countries. 16. In the field of pesticides, and to a smaller though still considerable extent in that of pharmaceuticals, the discovery of new proC .,cts essent,ally took place through the synthesis of new compounds, essentially organic. At first the synthesis was limited, as it was based on an elementary biological knowledge of the properties of certain molect~les; subsequently it was carried out more and more on a rand(;m basis, which required laboratory and field application screening, involving an increasingly wide range of new chemical compounds. 17. A kind of threshold effect is thus developed, which limits the main innovative activity in the field of pesticides, insecticides, fungicides, weedkillers, and so forth, to an inc~easingly fe~er number of large companies in a position to carry out and support a very intensive and expensive activity of synthesis and screening. Th~ coexistence of many small ~irms in this field was made possible by the nature of formulation producers that is, of chemical specialties containing, together with the active fine chemicals, such compounds as binders, dispersants, solubilizers and, in general, products capable of allowing the optimal use of the active ~ngredients under specific co~ditions of service, specially prepared for the outlet markets (often local or regional markets) where the close and capilla,'y con,act with the user is a funo.'.'nental factor of success. 18. The p~.~ticides industry, which includes both the producers of active ingredients and of formulations, was thus enormously developed in a few decades, achieviny a structure which, as far as the active ingredients are concerned, has a world-wide character while its turnover amounts now to several billion dollars. 19. In recent decades the pharmaceutical sector has also experieno:d a considerable development. In this case it should be noted that the discovery of some of the most important classes of therapeutic substances (x itamines, steroids, antibiotics and vaccines) took place through biological obser, ations which stimulated pilysiological and biochemical research. However, as pointed out in paragraph 16, in the pharmaceutical field too, after th,: identification of the therapeutical properties of some fundamental cb.enucal structures, product innovation was carried ou~ for the most part thr,~ugh the synthesis of an e~,er increasing nuznber of new

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molecules tollowed by pharmacological and other screenings. Here again we have a threshold effect, due to the heavy investrr, ents in research and development, which leads to a gradual shake-out of smaller enterprises. 20. Another sector, which has been developea over she past decades and has aroused an increasing interest in the chemical industry, is that of foodstuffs and, in particular, of additives aiming at preserving food and avoiding waste of food supply, as well as obtaining ready-prepared or semi-prepared products and improving food or making it more appetizing. For this, llavours, sweeteners, colouring agents, stabilizers, antioxidants, emulsifiers, etc. have been developed. 21. Before ending this brief review of some important and significant sectors of the chemical industry with regard to innovation, mention should be made of two very important elements in order to better understand the development of this industrial sector and its contributior, to the innovative process as well as to that of innovation spreading. The massive development of the new polymers of petrochemical origin cremated and at the same time made necessary the parallel development of manafacture of a whole series of other petrochemical products tsolvents, intermediate products, auxiliaries, a d d i t i v e s . . . ) which found ever growing application, ~ in many fields of the so-called che~r;lica.l specia.lties industry and as auxiliaries and additives in nonchemical industries (meta~ protection, lubricants, antffric~ion agents, adhesives, antio,~idants, food additives...). The innovations in these cases, although not exceptional, played an important and often determining role, especiall3 as to the synergism with the development of the ,~arious utilizer-i~du:,t,ies. - The emphasis put on researCl~ by the chemica~ industry in the wake of the successes achieved and simultaneous breakthroughs in a number of other technologically advanced indu ~tries (electronics, telecomm ,nications, avion'ics, informatics, bioengineering, etc.) created the bas~s -7or the development of a series of new materials for technologically sophisticated applications which, though no~ used for mass consumption, have had a decisive impor~tance in the developmen~ of these new sectors. 3,

CONSIRAINTS

ON

IN N O V A F I O N S

IN

THE

CHEMICAL

INDUSTRY 22. In addition to the description of past innovatior, s, the analysis of innovation prospects and trends in tihe chemical field must take into

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account some of the constraints to innovation itself recorded in most recent times. The most obvious examples of the,,~e constraints concern the likelihood of undesired effects of chemical products particularly the ntw ones on human health and on the environment. 23. During the past decade the alarm for potential health hazards has grown, involving a wide range of compounds some destined for sale and others present sometimes even only in trace amounts, in the products or in the atmosphere within chemical plants used as drugs, cosmetics, coiourants for foodstuffs, various additives, solvents, which come into contact with man. in addition to the danger of toxicity there is now also worry for the matagenic power of many synthetic compounds, as index of possible carcinogenic and teratogenic power, in the more recent ycars these worries have also been aggravated by the fact that several plastics slowly release monomers or additives dangerous to human health. The cases of vin,~l chloride and acrylonitrile monomers are good examples oJ this situation. Criticisms against the chemical industry for its impact on human health haxe thus grown considerably. 24. The example of thalidomide is too well known to necessitate a detailed description. Though not the first alarm in the pharmaceutical industry, it had such a ~trong impact on public opinion as to give rise to sevele, even though ju~,~tified, government regulations. Today all these regulations considerably increase the cost of the development of a new drug and, an even more negative factor, the time required for its introduction on the market, starting from the first synthesis of the active molecule, in addition, the procedure of random syntheses followed by screening is yielding ever diminishing returns. 25. A similar situation also exists in the field of chemical pesticides where, to mention just one case many others could be indicated DI)T and more generally chlorinated insecticides have created a predicament to some degree similar to the one caused by thalidomide. 26. Ar,,,,'her significant example of constraints in chemical product innovation is that of single cell proteins, in tiffs case, it was hoped to signnificantly contribute to covering the protein deficiency of mankind by producing large quantities of feed for animals and possibly even human food, starting from a widely available and low-cost raw material such as petroleum. Although the risk o!" negative effects comparable to those of previous cases, as claimed by several scientists, was not experimentally confirmed, this hope met obstacles which had not been foreseen x~hen research started, l h i s fact a strongly negative attitude by the pLtl~lic opinion is an c:~ample o! prc,'entivc reaction not altogether rationally

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motivated ,,hose me~tning cannot be denied nor reduced, it must be pointed out however that :he introdt, ction of the petcoleum-derived :~ingle ,:ell proteins was also hindered by economic reasons due to the change in the cos~t relation between petroleum and some important agricultural raw malerials, such as cereals and soybeans, which provide affe:native solutions to the demand for proteins. 27. The fields directly related to lauman health and food are those it. which the reactiot~, to innovation has been the strongest, and most disruptive. In parallel with the worry connected to health hazards there is now a concern for damages to the environment caused by numerous chemical products, like pesticides and solvents, which are either nonbiodegradable or only slowly degradable. Serious environmental prt,blems are also posted b3 plastics. The fact that in contrast to natural ma,:rial:~ most plastics are not biodegradable, together ~ith the consideration of the increasing demand for such materials, determined the risk of a growing environmental pollution which could not but negatively affect public opinion with regard to the image of the chemical indu ary i,self. The accusations agaiist synthetic materials were also based o~: other arguments which, though not as specific as nonbiodegradability, were of certain importance. One of these accusations is the ,'isk of fire and the formation of harmful chemical compounds by the~ real decomposition. 28. Other sectors of the modern chemical industry were the object of att:~:ks because of their inlFact on environment. The most clamorous cases are perhaps t hose cohcerning t he fluoro-chloro-hyd rocarbon-based propellants because of the d,.nger of destruction of the ozone layer in the high atmosphere which constitutes a shield against ultraviolet radiations. Other much discussed cases are those of the antiknock additives for gasolines because, of pollution from lea,), and of electrochemical pro,'esses requiring mercury electrodes because of the harmful effects of this metal on man through the food chain. 29. The sitaation described above is further agg,'avated by accidents such as that of Seveso where a chemical compound idio.x ;ne), accidenta. formed during a reaction aimed at producing a different organic s u stance, was dissipated in the environment causing very serious danger and requiring the evacuation of hundreds of fzn:,ihes in a prosperod suburban community. In normal conditions the chemical process that ICM ESA applied for the production of organic int,zrmediate~ should not lead to the formation of dioxine, but at'. unc~ntrolied temperature increase led to the synthesis of this extremely dangerous and harmful

lnnovati:m

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compound. The case of :';e~eso showed in all its gravity the inability ol the chemical industry, and even of the administrative structure, to r~pidly and satisfactorily solve the problems deriving from the spreading in the environment of a stable chemical substance. 30. In the 1970s a new factor arose to d.~.cisively affect chemical innovation: the energy crisis, with its cost implications for fossil fucks and the prospect of a scarcity of oil and natural gas in the not too dista~,.t future, thus creating problems for the chemical industr} which utilizes these as the principal feedstock. 31. Other factors contributed to create conditions of objective di:ficulties to innovation: for in.,,tance, t~e increasing trend toward capitalintensive production connccte¢ to lhe full exphfitation or atleged scale economics, at least in certain sectors tpetrochem cals. plas:~cs, fibre,,. fertilizers, etc.), lhi,~ trend has made the entry ot ne~,,-ct:ners mo,,t difficult, since the experience accumulated by the already c,,tablishcd producers, v.ith their gigantic plants, had con.,,equently cut produc~itm costs to such level,, a,, t o render extlcmcl 3 hard the life ~,t t-ompctitors M o t c ~ c r . in the clt,~c ~d"large petmtahemlc;d pt~c,~, m p~lrt~cul~tr. ,,,,ith the concentratiot~ ol a number o| hoge plant.~, there h~.c tx'en ,,~ mptom~, ol rigidity and ol a more diiiicult go,.ernability oi the plants thcmset~c,,. I h e s e ,.arious lactors ha~e certainly put a brake on the thru,,t of innovation. 32. )'he difficult,,' of finding adequate capital tor investment is a turthcr adverse element to innovation, l h i s difficulty can be traced back to a number of factors, including the scale ecor, omy. inflation, the reduced profitability of industry partly connected to all the previously described constraints. 33. As recalled in paragraph 24, the introduction of legal standards, binding regulations, particularly in the basic petrochemicals, and oi increasingly wide and different controls, especially as far as new products are concerned, have led to an enormous lengthening of the *Ames required to introduce these products, as well as a big increase of the rele~ant costs to prove their harmle:.sness. This brings about sucl~ threshold effects as to often render impossible the innovative activity of small and medium-size enterprises, and also ends by discouraging the big companies. This action has caused in many countries the abandonment of the typical conditions of the market economy, in which the spirit of enterprise that represents ~he basic conditions for the spreading and, therefor,e, the success of innovation in the market is encouraged and stimulated.

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4. THE NEED A N D O P P O R T U N f f l E S VATION

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FOR C H E M I C A L INNO-

34. This analysis of the main constraints seems to lead to the conclusion ,that the conditions for innovation in ,he chemical field are considerably reduced today ]'he reality is, however, much more complex because it nvolvcs not only a survey of the factors analyzed in the preceding ;9aragraph:~;. but also the consideration of possible effects of future iinnovmions on the industrial and market structures and. in the long run, on the organization of society itself. What follows is not meant to cover every aspect of the subject but only to indicate some significant elements for the work to be done by the OECD's Experts Group on Science and -I-echnology in the New Economic Context. in any case it would be naive to approach a topic like this in ~,: traditional way. that is by using conventional indicators such as the turnover of the various industrial sectors, the R&D effort, the number of patents obtained, etc. 35. The chemical industry, particularly in the basic petrochemicals and in other high energy-i~tensive production, will probably face a geographic dislocation of investments, favouring new plants in the oil-producing c~eveloping countries Several such countries, and others endov,'ed with important mineral raw materials (for example, phosphate rocks), are characterized by a surplus of their ba,ance of payments, and are striving to reach as soon as 15ossible th ~-s;age of industrialization. Moreover. the r~:eed tbr food in the third v, orld will create the conditions for a dislocation of the fertili,~.er indu try towarc~ those countries. ].his trend. albei't slow, should bc viewed positively by the established chemical indu.,~try, whose scarcity of capital for investraents does not favour e~penditures in mature capital-intensive production. However. this process should be accompanied by a stront~tr commitment in the mot • innovative branches of the chemical industry, 36. This process of geographic disloca:ion is in itself a factor that sTimulate,., further innovation, because: (i) it liberates fit~ancial and technical resources in the chemical enterprisc~ of industriali,,.d countries'. (ii) The n,~w initiatives in the develcF, in~: countries will stimulate the demand for more sophisticated chemical products in the world market; (iii) ~ihe existing potential for scientific and technical innovation should be fully exploited by the chemical companies in consideration of their need to retain their position in the international market, threatened b) the risk of an ~n,zreasing structural dislocation ol productive activities. 3 7. If we examine the prospects for the petrochemical sector. ~htch I,a~

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made the greatest ,,ontribution in recent decades to the development of today's chemical industry, we must first of all take into account that it is threatened by a long-term depletion of its basic raw material and by a steady increase in the price of oil, which may make, in perspective, raw materials, intermediates and products of other origin more economically attractive. The foreseeable innovation in the petrochemical sector will first of all concern its readaptation so as to allow in the long term the utilization of raw materials other than petroleum, such as coal (through new gasification and liquifaction processes ), oil shales, urban and agricultural organic waste, algae and various agricultural products. Coal appears particularly attractive, both for obtaining aromatics and for the obtainment of other important intermediates, such as methanol, ammonia, acetic, acid, ethylene glycol, ethylene, acetyk~e, etc. 38. Whilst in the second postwar period the advent of petroleum as raw material for the chemical industry has led to an enormous development of ethylene chemistry, thus displacing the more traditional acetylene chemistry, today a return of coal as raw material could lead to a revival of acetylene chemistry. Such a switch could prove highly stimulating, especially from the ,~'iewpoint of process innovation. 39. in the past, process innovation has played a very important role in reducing costs and in the exploitation of scale economies. Process innovation will undoubtedly find an obstacle in the large dimension of installation, which as we have seen in paragraph 31, means huge investments and technological, economic and market rigidity. However, though representing a slow-aown factor, this obstacle should not hinder inaovation completely. 40. At the same time, a new approach is needed for the future. It should take in, o consideration, not only the exploitation of alternative,raw materials, but also a proper utilization of by-products, a better and more efficient recyc'6ng, and such problems as environmental pollution, wc, rk safety, the harmfulness of certain technological processes and of certain chemical products. 41. The issues related to health and ecological necessities discussed in paragraphs 23 29 have created serious problems and constraints for the chemical industry. This industry is however highly flexible and capable of responding to the stimuli it receives, and is demonstrating its ability to innovate in order to overcome the ties imposed by the strict regulations introduced. Chemical engineering, for example, is finding new important metiaods for the development of liquid and gaseous effluent treatment processe~i (e.g., the integral recycling of process water), and othei new

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processes that ar~. less polluting anti safer for the health of those who work with t!~.em. ~n the same way. conipletely new types ot analytical chemistry i,~trum:ntation are emerging for determining the presence in trace amounts ol metal elements and organic substances. Moreover. chemical industry can study substitutive non-polluting and safe products. These innovation:., which aim at the safety of workers, consumers and production, are rather b'.:rdensome ior the chemical industr, • ad consequently deprive the inves:ments meant fer h e production of goods, of financial and research forces: thus limiting inno~,ation in production. 42. The obligation of guaranteeing products that are neither toxic, nor carcinogenic, nor teratogenic, stimulates a whole series of product innovations, it may thus be expected, and the first slgn.~ of it can already be observed, tha~ there will be a return of the Olemistry of natural products. The study of t h e ~ substances and of the natural proce:;ses in which they are generated formed the basis for the earlier developments in the chemistry of dyestuffs, pesticides and drug,,. 1"he fact that natural substances are intrinsically nonmutagenic and biodegradable reinstates the conditions for an interest toy. ards this difficult and fascinating branch of chemistry. Many of the active molecules within plant and animal lilc have yet to be rstud~ed, and the world of aquatic animals, of algae, ol phytoplankton etc., still remains largely unexp'ored. 43. The area of the chemistry ol mqural products is nov.. regarded as one of the most promising w a y to future de,,elopment. I.!p to a short tim~" a-.2.o, the experimental wo:k to identil~' at~d isolate one single ne~ molecule from a plant t~r ~tn animal organism was very long and burdensome. The develop~rteat of analytic~:l techniques based on ga.,,chromatography, mass spectrometry, nuclear magnetic resonance, has now made it possible to identify thous~,nds of new molecules every ye~.r. This in turn has led to orienting rt:,~earch towards ways in ~, li~.:~ biosynthesis mechanisms can be directed towards the production of useful co t~lpounds. 44. Safety of operation is one of the reasohs way recently interest ha: arisen for the future possibility of installing some c~,tical themi ~'' production on orbiting satellites o" on the moon. The study of chemic~t reactions or the preraration of materials in outer space opens u,, interestin,~/ new horizons for chemical developments in the future, in particular, space represents a highly valid laboratory for s t u d y i , g reactions and production in the absence of atmosphere and gravity, in c~ndiu,:,as ,ff extreme purity, or fo~ :xperimen~ing particularly dangerous reactions. The acqui~sition of these elements of knowledge could in some cases be exploited industrially on our planet.

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An example would be the growth in space of large crystals, especially tor electronics, under controlled conditions of do0ant diffusion and segregation, of interface growth, of wetting behaviour and of surface tension. Solidification is. in fact, very closely related ,:o convection and it is impossible today to establish diffusion-controlled solidification conditions o n earth. 45. Passing on now to innovation for mass-use products, it is extremely' unlikely that a new plastic for mass consumption will be discovered in the area of high polymers. The very good cost performance of high and low density polyethylene, polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, !,~d ABS resins seem in fact to preclude the field to any possible newcomer. Due to their simple structure, versatility of application, wide availability of monomer:, at reasonable price, both now and in the future when it will be possible to obtain them from other raw materials, these products will continue to be widely used and their consumptior, will grow steadily. Innovation in this'field of mass-use plastics will then no longer have a breakthrough character as in the 1930s to I he 1950s when it was related to the discovery of new and equally, important polymers. 46. However, we appear to here begun a new period of innovation, less dramatic, perhaps, but in the long term at least equally important as the introductq~n of nex~ polymers, l'his innovation will be essentia!ly connectud to the progress of the ~cience oi materials an interdiscplinary and border-line field between chemistry, physics and enginceri~. In other words, we mu,,t look at polymers just as in the past thirty years ~xe ha~e been looking at metals and alloys, exploiting our knowledge about the solid state, rheology and the correlatic":: b:tween properties ar, d structure which so far have had a relatively secondary importance. We mua combine advanced basic knowledge with technologicai processes: so as to fully exploit the possibili:y oi realiTi~u, diffelent types of structure due to different ways of organiting molecules, so also obtaining mu!ti|,hose structure,, capable of cvinumg the desired application properties; and combine knowledge of materials with kno~vledge aboat manufactured produ~,ls, in order to properly design materials through processing or crealing compounded plastics and composite materials in nrder to better t,e,.ign the finished products, lno.ovation in this field will also tend to obtain products meeting the environmental requirements mentioned before such as degradability, non-flammability and non-toxicitv. 47. What ~as said in paragraphs 44. 45 and 46 about the main plastic polymers also largely applies to sxnthetic fibres and elastomers. For fibres, natural and man-made, a particularly interesting poir~t would be a

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study of the possibility t,i imparting anti-bacteria~ properties to the fibres themselves, tor use in the field of clothing and of fabrics. 48. The developments foreseen for the widely used polymers naturally do not apply to the polymers required for special technological applications. In the latter case, in fact, it may be expected that new polymers will be devclloped, which will take their place beside those realized in recent years, such as the fluorinated polymers, and those containing aromatic nuclei associated with amide, imide anti ester functions. These new polymers are used for their specific chemical, optical, thermal, electrical and m,~chani,cal properties, and will be mentioned in paragraphs 64 and 65, discussing special new materials. 49. la principle, favourable prospects also exist for the special fibres, for which innovative developments are to be expected with the introduction of essentially new products, in particular for the rcinforcerr~ent ol composites. The fibres in question are not only inorganic (glass, carbon, ceramic:, metal), but also organic, as is indicated by the recent example of Kevlar. ar.d aromatic amide fibre, wi~h far higher elasto-mecilanical properIIie..~ than those of metals. Howe~er the re:~earch effort needed for the development of these special products is considerable and is not dissimilar to the endea.w, urs that have be,m nece:sary fol the major massuse polymers. Several. hnndred million dollars may well be required to bring a ~..-~v special f i b r e , svch as Kevlan, onto the market. r h e :!gigantic size of ~;uch financial comm,tr:~ents ends ~heuefor,: t~3' limiting the mmber of ne~ ~naterials of thi~ type, 'with a selection r,ro,:ess of which the key factor of sJccess is not only .t techxiological and market e,,aluat,on, but also the perseverance and lor, g-sightedness of the firms invoh, ed. 50. l a the field of agricultural prodacts cheqllcal fertilizers will probably undergo relatively ~klinor ixmovations at the commodities level, esp,',';ally in consideration of the previously met~tione,:l constraints, while r,ore valuabh." market segments will be de,,eloped with the prod'uetion ~.,fliquid and other easily applicable fertilizers and ol low-release fertili,~ers, etc. These new products will make agricultural production less cthtlv b ' reducing labour, especially in the developed countrues 51. rhi,; applie.s to traditional fettlii,,crs. rile situatior, is very differer:i from the slandpoint of the result tt~ be obtaint,d that is, when we mo~,~' from research on fertilizers to research on fertilization. Here the field is still wide open and we may be on the eve of fimdamental breakthroughs especiall.~, with regard to the biological approach to the problem. One objective is the deveicl3ment of nitrogen-fixing processes similar tc those already knc.wn in nature for some vegetable ~species, applying them to

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other plants such as cereals ~hich. through genetic modifications, can utilize symbiotic nitrogen-fixing micro3rganisms, or by conferring the property of metabolizing atmospheric nitrogen to bacteria not having this characteristic. The problem consists of passing from the traditional methods of plant physiology to molecular biology and genetic engineering. Such an activity i, typically interdisciplinary and requires the cooperation of ~pecialists of many different fields: chemists, biologists, biochemists. agronomists, genetists, experts in catalysis, crystal structure and science of materials, chemical engineers. 52. l h i s example of shifting of the emphasis of research and con,,equently of production and service structure from the product (fertilizer) to the process or. better, the function for v~hich the product is obtained (fertilization) - has a much more general validity, not limited to the sector beir, g considered and to the chemical industry for which other examples ,,~ill he given here. 53. As to pesticides, the production of chemical compounds acting as insecticides, herbicides, etc. must be substituted by an attack on in:~ects and ,~,eeds organized on a global ecological basis, taking into account all the element.~ of the natural agriculturai ecosystem, with the aim of protecting crops in an economically ~'ai:~dw;,y. The problem consists then of carrying out a c,~mplex and articular(: prn~ection using all the chemical. physical and biological means capabl z of being utilized without toxic and negative environmental effects and consequences. 54. Research is already mo~ing toward this new. more integrated and interdisciplinary approach. One of its first trends is the increasing use of pesticides dcri~ed from natural products. Another trend is to create formulations o[ the active ingredients whic~ will improve their performances, lhis rt'sult can be obtained, for example, by recourse to microinc~psulatton techniques to redu,:e toxicity by contact, to provide sclecli~it) It', the comp(~unds with :] ~ ider spectrum of action, to improve the stability ol those which are Ioo unstable and to increase the persistence of the more ~olalile ol~es b!,' means of a cot, trolled, long-term rele;~se. 55~ ()nc intcrt.sting and inn~i,,li~e rout(; is the de~.elopment of new meath complctel} ddl'crcnt from tl'c conventional ones. In the case of in,,ccts, for example, v,e have to stud)' the chen,ical characteristics and the biological properties of the :ubstances (hormones) which determine mutations and metamorphoses, lhe nature of the compounds that insects secrete and utii~,,e in their relations with their fcllov,-creatures, the chemical-enzymatic processes ~hich lead to th(. formation of the tegu-

220

t,'. C-h.,~,,

ment, etc. The compounds capable of altering the normal growth rat~: of insects (juvenile hormones and chitin-formation inhibitors)and those determining their sexual beha~iour (fcromonesl are particularly interesting for the application possibilities they offe.. Fer,,mo~es are chemical .~ubstar~ces produced by insects to attract subjects of the opposite sex and thus perform as chemical messengers. By placing lhem in special tral,s they may be used to check on the growth of harmful populations and establish wilen it is necessary to intervene with a concerted action u.~ing more conventional pesticides in an appropriate and timely way. Feromones, may also be used instead of insecticides ~o capl,.re insects in traps or to disorient them by spreading the feromone ;n the air and thus making coupling practically impossible. 56. The research and synthesis of chemically or biologically active compounds can start from the identification of natural sub,~tances, lhese substances, that can find application by themselves, are the starting point for research aiming at obtaining new melecules more .¢,a~,le. more effective or more specific. The current trend is toward a gradual abandonment of the 'random synthesis and screening' approach to guide the synthesis toward molecular structures with a high p,:oba~ility of having the desired biological profile. To this end teehniqaes of "dru~design' which require the use of pov, erful scientific corr~pt~ters made possible by the deveiopmer~t of data processing and of comparatke study of biological activi'y are utilized. Close cooperalion betx~een theoretical chemists., organic chemists, biochemists and biologist.,, is therefore essential. Researct tends as a Erst step to outline the relations between biological and related properties on one side, and molecular structur,e on the other, in families of similar c~emical compounds in order to reduce the number of compounds to be s~ nt he.,,i,,ed [lead optimi,,ation) and, in the long run, to identil3' new strtctures ol maximum interest ~le~,d generation). 57. But there is also another way, in a certain sense the opposite, of approaching the problem, especially in tht case of fungi, bacteria an l virus, and thi~ is p~ant chemiothetapy lhis meal, s ':,at the pl~t~t treated from the inside and not cnl,, on the outside. I~hc chemiothtrai~ of plant disease~; is advancing rapidly, even if the beha~iour of plants 1 not the same as that of animals, in tha~ plants have no r~hagocytes, ai~ their behaviour needs therefore to be very carefully studied. [ h e mo~c recent studies would seem however to point to the possibdity that certain chemical products, used in the control of plant dL,.,:ases. ~'~:,nalso activate a nalural mech:mism of resistance.

Innovatt~,n

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5•. What ~'a,, said about pesticides in paragraphs 53 57 also applies to pharmaceuticals. Here. too. the problem consists of passing from the pharmaceutical pioduct to the function for which it is produced that is. the conservation and re-establishment of man's health. This requires a shift from a strictly p :enomenological level of the knowledge of physiologic and pathologic lr,henomena to a level that takes into deeper account cells and molecules, l o achieve this. increasingly refir:.-.d means of in~estigation must be developed to isolate and identify tn biologic systems the molecules which, even at ~er~ lob concentrations, act upon physiologic processes, so as to acquire an understanding of their dynamics. A much more interdisciplinary approach to the borderline between chemistD ~. biology, biochemistry and physiology is needed. ' D r u g design'. 'lead optimitalion" and "lead generation' m~.thods will therefore be increa,,ingly used to identil.~ ne~ pharmaceutical products with the desired biological action. I n loci. the lii~elihood of Jiscoxering a new drug by random screening tends to become extremel3 Io~'. in the order of one successful product out c.~ hundreds of thousands of potential molecules. the choice of drugs mu~t thus be based more and more on a knowledge of the interactions of the molecules of a drug ~ith living organs, on the modifications of actixe chemical compounds and. ~bove all. on the knoatedge of the biological ac'ion involved. 59° In the case of pharmaceuticals and health, an ever increasing importance ~il! bc given to the physiological biochemistry approach. inxoking the study ,~f the biochemical functions that is. the study of the metabolic reactior:~ of the organism, or of the organs, or of cells living in normal or palhol~gic~l conditions in order to discover and isolate bioh~gically actinic ~ubstances capable of affecting metabolic phenomena b.~ accelerating or delaying them. As nearly all metabolic reactions are catal.~,ped by enL~'mes, en,,ymology ~ ill more and more be a research field to identify the actl,~e centre,, ~ith ~hich enzymes act ~nd to understand their mechanism of action. I~h.wiologica! biochemistry studies will allow not truly the di~ct~ery of ncv..~ubstantes capable of controlling metabolic reacl~onx, but also to design appronriatc therapies to understand immunnological phenomena and processes and. finally to work on the basis of tile knoaledgc ol" the ILlnCl|Orl Ot the organism on v. hich ~vc intend to act. 60. In this area the obtainment of specific molecules ~hich wil~ not intcrlere with non-target sites, and the possibility of con~ e.ving, by means ol an appropriate co,trier, the functional molecules to the si,.e of action and there release them to perform their tast~, are becoming highly tmp.~rtant. It ~s m~J-~'~unhkclv 'hat ~he molecules be so specific as not to

222

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Colomh,,

interfere with other fu~lctions during their conveyance: oll the other hand, the research for the i&.'al carrier means the realization of a ,~yst,:ra capable of recog~lizing the target. A significant example of thi.,, d~velopment is the work on the control of the action mechanism of the brain and the treatment of such illnesses as Parkinson's disease, Hun',ington's chorea, and schiraphrenia. 61. "l'hq~innovati,~,e approach of an interdisciplinary nature, applied in paragraphs 51 60 to the problems of fertilization, biological control of paras;t:z~, and pharmacc4ogy, will lead to revolutionary consequences in the respecti~,e sectors; however, research must be carried out with great ca~,tion in order to guarantee the absolute harmlessness for both man and environment, particularly in the case of the inl:erventio~ of genetic engineeri~g, an interdisciplinary new area in which chemical knowledge is invoh'ed, i 62. Fields of organic chemistry other than those of pesticides and pharmaceuticals will undergo sub.,,tantially innov~dve processes. As an example we can recall the case of dyestuffs where the approach of theoretical chemistry and computer-oriented synthesis is expected to have a prominent role. However, in general, in organic chemistry as well we shall have to operate in a1~ increasingly interciisciplinary way at the border-line with other disciplines in order to oat~m products really corresponding to the use '.o be made of them. 6.3. One activity that is b~ing increasingly developed is that of chemical formulatJton. Th,e issue of formulation has been mentioned in paragraphs 54 and 60 in relatioa to pesticides and drugs. More in general, the introductiion of a specialty chemical into the market calls for an appropriate formulation of the product, that is to say. it necessitates the presence of dispersing, lubricatil, g, emu~,sifying, humidifying, stabilizing agents and so forth to preserve the ~nternal phases and to alloJ the appropriate functions of the external phases in contact with the envirorment Formulation chemistry was initiall~ d~velop,',:d us an eminently emphical sciepce, but has increasingly used .,,pecific cNis,cipliles (structur; I chemistry, non-equilibrium therlaodynamics, phase eq~ailibria, intelf' physics and chemistry). 64. Another sector of special importance for the eco,'.'~.ly, to wht~g ." development chemistry has given and will furthe~r giv.: an essenti~ contribu~tion, is that of special materials required for a whole series c f very different applications. Each technology needs., in fact, materials with spc.cific properties - from the most sophisticated to those necessary to obt~,in everyday consumer goods. These are metals and alloys,

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polymers, ceramic materials for structural uses, corrosion-resistan't materials, very hard materials, piezoelectrics, ferro-electrics, dielectrics, conductors, semiconductors, superconductors all materials used for the specific function they can carD' out: electrical, thermal (resistance to high temperatures and to thermal shock,,.), optical, electro-optical, chemical (catalysts, electrodes), magnetic (for permanent magnets, for magnetic bubbles, for audio and video recording). 65. In the sector of new materials we must expect an increasing growth of special polymeric materials for technologically advanced applications because of their great versatility. Some of these are already a reality: for example, the very high modulus fibres for advanced composites, hollow fibres, porous hygroscol~iC fibres, polymeric materials for energy absorption and dissipation (e.g. on missiles and satellites), for interlaminar joints, for adhesives and glues replacing metal welding, for energy barriers (thermal, acoustic and electric insulation), for energy transmission (light, hew, electricity), for optics (lenses, glass substitutes), for surgical prostheses, etc. The great versatility of polimeric materials wi!l allow the range of these applications to be widened by exploiting both the properties inherent in these materials such as anisotropy due to macromolecular configurations, or the viscoelastic behaviour, and by special process technology (such as super-orientation of fibres and crystallization of p!.astics). On a longer time-scale, superconductive polymers could be obtained, and more in general there are hope.,, of a new generalion of pol.~meric materials for application in electronics. 66. By w~,y of example it may be interesting to examine more closely a type of material, like the magnetic for recording, because it allows a ready understanding of how the production of the tape of a cassette requires different materials which, though apparently simple, in reality arc extremely sophisticated: a light, non-deformable polymeric tape with high mcchanical properties, a magnetic oxide involving a complex production process and unalterable adhesives. These materials can in principle be manufactured by different firms, but progress in this area will increasingly depend on the capability of a single enterprise to design and produce all of them. Such an enterprr~e, however, in order to be i~ the furefront of ghe more sophisticated market applications, will have to depart from strictly chemical markets and technology and to operate ~:t the border-line with several branches of ~pplied electronics. 67. in this special materials sector innovation is involved by technoloigical prog.wess in applic;.tion fields in which a strong demand exists for nc~' materials more suited to the complex functions for which they are

224

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designed. These fields are in fact in great need for ,;uch mate.rials in ~iew of their innov~ttive development. Chemistr+¢ is engaged ~_o meet this requireme~at, in this case, too, the problem ,:onsists in pas.,ing from the product to the function for which the product is designed and, consequently, to a typically multidisciplinary approach at the borderline of the various chemic,~' physical and engi~leering disciplines, as well as of the biological, environmental and social ones. Of course, rhi.~,development of rviateriah,, to which chemistry is asked to give a substantial contribution, will not be necessarily advantageous for the chemical industry alone. On the contrary, as a consequence of the shift of empimsis from the product to the functions, other industries may ~e iaterested and involved in lhis process. 68. The innovation margins fo~ chemistry are to be seen in its contribution to the solution of mankind's problems such as food (fertili/ers a~ld pesticides), health (pharmaceuticals), clothing (fibres) and the like. Within this framework it is interesting to examine the energy prob!,:m, which is of primary importance today. A full analysis of the topic would however take us far ~,eyond the scope of this paper. 69. It rilay however be remarked thai [l~e energ~ crisis is pushing the chemic~tl industry towards a reduction of enetg.~ consumption, to be achieved througI~ a rev~.,.,ion of its proce.,,ses, a sttnd.~ of new processes or a return to proces,;es and basic products that had been a b a n d o n e d under different circumstances, as tn the previousl.~ met:tioned cases of a ~:t~al and acetylene chemistry. In paragraph 81 mention will be made of some of the raore sig.aificant inter~ +,ui,,,n,~ of ,:tlemistry ~n tile development of ne,,v sources of energy, energy carriers, etc. 70. The necessity o~ cbnserxing energy aI~d of better utili/ing the existin!, resources repre,,+ents ~n opportunity Ior an area of chem,str~ 'where industri~tl ,interes~i did not a p p : a r to have major prost~ cts: electroc'~e,nistry. "l;his branch of chem,st~"v, ~hit;h is well cap:~ble ol operating at ¢or~tt ,~led energy ie~c!s, may pl~ ~ an increasingly important role in organic syntheses, for ~,,,htch rcac~:ors ul t+ew col'tceiltioll arltJ I101"~ conventional clot',rode.,; must be dcwAoped. But tl',e incl :~,,e ol oi pri:, will ulso ~rtake room for .!.>tht':r ,el,:ctrt,c:hemical i~atcr~elltlOllS, 9+i,~]1 l]le dexeh~pmelat o" batteries acctln~t~latc+rs, !'t~el t:eils, x~hich ~ 11 fin,] enal:,loyment in energy stor~ge, particularly tor the Io~d levelling ol e!ectric power, in m~r~or-dti~en vel~kles, in domesttc and !ndttstrial applications. l':"~e dexttopment of h3~]rogcn ~nd ,t~e~.h~nol ~,, ,'r;erg.~ carriers cotlld _r,a,+our tile success of fuel ,:ells. l!let.'trt+chctni~,trv, m,~rc,~ cr could find extera~.b,e apt~li.cations i~ ind.rect processes: t ~te,,e ;.|le b~.l~,td o1"~

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the use of redox systems (usually inorganic salts) which react promptly at the electrode and can be present at such low concentrations so as not to pose problems of mass transport. 71. r h e problem areas of primary interest for mankind, in which chemistry finds itself ever-more involved, include that of water, in the future, water will be increasingly considered as a precious resource no longer practically free of charge and at the disposal of all and it will ha~e to be used wisely and recuperated for further uses. Collection, distribution and recycling of water call more and more for an action tha involves a whole series of ph.vsieo-chemical, biological and engineering problems tha~. are of no eas.~ solution. Chemistry is already involved ill the treatment of water for different applications usir,g differ,:nt technologies, such as electrodial.~is, rever,c o~mosis, ion-exchange resins. electrochemical and biochemical processes, solar energy, etc. 72. ('hemistD will find its greatest innovative development Jbllowing the direction of a growing integration with biology and the livin~ig phenomena, rhis intcgratior, represents the natural solution to a numbeol complex and highly serious problems, such as providing sufficicn: food for humanity, increasing reviewable materials and energy resources, producing goods biologically compatible x~ith the living species, respecting the en,,ironment and developing less "violent" technologies than those at present adopted. "~3. From this vice, point, the dex,lopment of enzymatic-type catalytic processes. ~hich operate in bland condi',ions, appears ~o be the most appropriate approach, counterposed to the more traditional one oi adopting zxtreme conditions (high prcssure.~, high temperatures, llam,: r,:actions) in order to increase yields and ~:action rates. Biochemistry ant genetic engineering will increasingly tint; emplo} ment, in particular, i;:, ~le production of agricultural fl)odstu,"fs and of specialty chemicals l through tZ'rmentation. Biochemistry is not in a, position to replace the I,ca~,, chemical industr~ =today, but there ;~re wide marjins for improvinL: Ihe elliLiency ol m~crobic cultures and, in addition, the operat;n~ ,'Ol'ldi|iO~ls arc such (for instance, temperatures only slightly higher that ,l+lbie II) as to limit the losses due to irrc~,+ersihle processes in relation t~, i:hc ~,e:ond principle 01" thermodvwmmics.

226 5. C O N S E Q U E N C E S ,I)F I N N O V A T I O N ON THE I N D U S I R ~ A L S I I ~ U C T U R E , ON ] ' H E S E R V I C E S A N D ON S O C I F / I Y I

74. Afte; discussing the problem relating to innovation, existing constraints, future prospect,,, and ils location, introdu,:tiol~ and incentiw.'s, it is import;mr to examine tl~,c effects of innovation on the industrial and market structur;, on the services and, mote generally, on society as a whole. 1[ we tt ke into consideration ~.he O E C I ) countries, it clearly appears that tht ir present production, trade and d e m a n d structures are still thcse that lave been formed during the course of their economic deve~oplment, es ~ecially over the more recent times, as a consequence of their industriali~ ation process and the creation ~f a society, under certain aspects a~ready ~ost-mdustrlai, based on the implicit presumption ol a limitles., availability of natural resources. These structures are not compat,ble with the human consciousne~,s of the limits. the scarsity and the growing cost of certain resources, the necessit~ of a more attentive colaside,"ation to ecological and environmental fal.'lOlS. 75. Lli'~til recently the chemical industries in the ( ) E C D countries hay,: been s!~imulated by the considerable innovation process outlined in paragr;alahs 8 21. r h i s process had to face ever increasing constraints summari.~ed in Faragraphs 22 23. On the: other Ia~,tad, if we examine the need~ for and the prospects o inoovation discussed in paragraphs 34 73, we can ~ee that i~:hey meet rtq.~irements which arc quite diflerent frt, m those of even a irecent past. t h e s e requirements ;.~ad perspectixe,, thus find lh~.' ,economt/c and mdustn.,! structures madeqt~ate to face them. but they alse find society it~,elf ill-prepared and co~tfu.,,ed in relation to the new orien~atians, to the changes in dernand~; and ,~mues, to the awakening of an .a,,~ar,:ness co~itccrning a general chan,,e that is occurring and ,ff "he con:~et!ucnces that this entails. For these reasons too., inno~'alion enco~nters a t!~owing difficulty. All this may be more clearly explained ,,~,ith a l~ew factaal exalrples. 76. AJlamg the cases wc have previousl.v t.~n,,idcred, t'.~.at ol the" new pcslicidcs and of the integrated b,olot-,,ical pt:.,.l: contr~:fl ,~cthod', t~,e~ paragr;Jl~hs 53 5:i) represent a goo0 relctcnce p,3i~ll. I h~:sc ilUtOXatiolaS ~lr~:ady are Ileal" ~ake-off and arc. therel'ot,:, ill a t'~siti,.~t tO pnox,dc ~.al~d elernenls of consideration. The dcma~d for tradit Ol~ai pesticide.,, is clisperscJ and relatively non-organi,,ed. I'his depends :npon the naturc of the pe~':icides themselves and the vcr\' st~n~ple kno~vlcc,!.e :cquircd to use thegn, ~:~.cn il" the enx ironmerttal damage deriving f r o ~ ,~ttch use is olien iL~nored Moreover, the industry which produce.,, ,,t:~ci: pc,.ticidcs or their /

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formulations, as well as distributors and farmers who utilize' them, are intere~,ted in their large and ever growing t~roduction. "/7. ()n the contrary, the new pesticides are not, strictly speaking. "products'; they are rather a different way of controlling pa:rasitcs and have a high knowledge content at research, production and utilization level. t h e y cannot be marketed through the usual channels and the larmer is not in a position to use them as he uses the traditional products. I n fact, the,. require precise and scientific utilization met ~ods and, conseqt~ently, a considerable amount of knowledge if they are t , be rationally used with benefit= Hence, organized systems capable of of G'ring them as a service not just as products are indispensable. On the other hand. the nt:,~ pesticides represent relatively small quantities of products which, though ~er.v valuable, cannot ,% such an interestirg business for industry. The latter could only find some advantage in a ,,ervicc, thus more and more modifying its own structure. Such service is, however, made difficult if not impossible by the lack of suitable structures capable of receivin/~ r,it. In fact. demand is neither aggregated nor organized. Its aggregation and its organi.'atnon require adequate rt*gtona! forms of ~:s~ociation or a planned in~erxcntion o1 the government and regional authorities in a word. a difiere~at ..,o~:iai strutturc. 7~o I he ne,,,, pesticides could be more easily introduced and utilized to protect crops in many de~eloping countrie.,, where it is possible to create suitable regional organization to use then,. Hence. although it may sound paradoxical, certain innovations deriving from advanced fundamental scientific research could find their first application in the developing countries as a ton:cquence of the presence of fewer obstacles. This pcct:lia .~ituation ts due both to the simplicity of their often still prc-ind,Jstrnal structures and to the political will ef their governments to m,dcrv~ly face Ihe r~mblem of crop protection, als( availing thern~;ei,~ es ot the hell~ of the more de~eloped countries. 79 Other innovation lines v, hich wcrc previously discussed, e.g the fotthco~uing fertili/ation methods (paragraph 51) replacing traditional Icrtih/cr,,. or the ne~ approach to pharmaceutical research and h,.;alth problclil~ i paragraphs 5b; and 59) arc also capable of inducing signif,cant chlinge:, Ill the ..,tructu~c of ecolionlic and social iicti',itic.,,. A l-~r,~cuss ol restructun'ation of the production and market system will also be i~'duced bx the change.,, occ.lrring in areas of materials i csearch. 811. |:_nlergy represents a further example that contributes to~rarJ atl understanding of thc modifications ~hat arc tc bc expected |01 tht. industr al structure in connection with societal needs, and that in~ol'~t

228

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chemistry together with other big indusltial sectors of the economy. In this case, the chemical industry does not play the leading role, but does ho~.~ever represent a far more important factc, r with respect t,~ the past. The exploitation of the most promising non-traditional sot~rces of energy call~, in fact, for the preparation of a wide range of fuels and material~ both structural and capable of meeting .,,pecific functional requirements (electrical, ~pt!ical. ~;hermal, magnetic, etc.) and the deyelopmeat of new che,a-aical proce.~ses, l-his is a challenge that the chemical industry will certainly a~zcept. 81. ~t may also be expected that this industry will be able to undertake a far more active and pulling role. it is obvious, in fact, that the use of sources, such as coal, shale oils. organic wastes; of energy carriers, such as methano~ or hydrogen: of storage systems of the electrochemical or thermal t~ i~t.~s(phase-change materials) or stru~'tural (metal hydrides): of traJa~formation systems like photovoltaic or photochemical ,'onversion, fuel-cells raagneto-hydro-dynamics represent exceptional opportunities for a concomitant de,~elopment of chemical and energy processes. 82. The'~.~ailability of decentralized cnerg.y sources and related energy sys:tems could allow a more general process of indus~.rLal, economic and social deiz~'rntx'alization. This deveh~pment, as opposed to a highly centralized ~i~ne. towards which other erlergy altenatives requiring very large pr~ducti,!~n units lead, is unlikely tc. occur as a result of choices based ~n strictly ~'conomic orofitability ~al,~ations. 83 ]In 9rder to move tovcards a n,ox'e equilnbrated society, which could be bcuei, Ioa~anced insofar as t'~ ~. problem of regional planning is co~acerr~ed, strategic choices should ..~e based on ~on['. term co,lsiderations an~:l! on socio-economic factors. r~a!us, I"Ol-exar;inl, r, when dclding with r~h~ l:~,roblem ~t" I~abour productivity, one should als,,~ consider the social ct~,~ts associ~ted with highly iI~roductivc s.v.~:ems and reli~te~l to such pr~blems as envirohmental protection, territt:~rial a~d ecol~omic imbalan,;'e~, uncml;~loyment. ~atisl'ac~ion in work and. m,~re in ge~t,~,r,~l, quality of li:e. In i.~a~ragraphs 84 87 unemploymelat will ~e discur,:;etll in some detaal as a~a example ot these types of problems, it is ,;lear, how,- eer, that a st~at,.~gic choi,:e of this kind would n'eq'tire ',hal pl-~ns lot the future be based on "i~'tela-econorllic' consideration,,, and this may be ~,¢i$' diHicult to achieve unless it is backed by tt clear and long-I;lsting p,ll~tical ~ill. 84 Uneraployment represents a .,erious constraint to innovation in the pr::scnt in,:lus'trial ~,)ci,:ty. This is tin extremely serious mat~t:r especially in ct~nsider~ion of tht? fact theft in recent )'car,,, ~hext' ha,' bct'n a gradual anJ rem~rlcable incre~se in offic al unemp!o.~men~t in alna~st all :he

22q

h m o v a t . . ~ and the ¢h~'m~cal tn~h~.~tr~

OECI) countries, without taking i~,to consideration the phenomena ol t job renunciation (for e.,.ample by wt ,men). of first job non-acquisition ( by ,nasses of students) aad of the st?reading of under-employment. The current type of development is not only unable to absorb and eliminate this unemployment and this outcasiing, but on the contrary it le~:tds to their aggravation. Tracle unions, ,,, hose aims are defined in connection v,rith the cxi3ting economic and production structures, end up by protecting v, orkers already employed and by ignoring the out-cast masses. I';5. 1o lace the problem .ff un,cmployment and labour in the rno:,t developed countries means the buil t i n t of different social and production structures as well a:, requesting nev¢ and suitable technologies for achieving the desired objective. ~Sr,. We must therefore see ,,~he~h:r the pre,~iously discussed innovation t. .rues may provide a solution to th~ problem. As to the chemical industry in par,.icular, it i.,. difficult to en,,isage increa,,,es m direct employment. l h e problem ho,,~cver, not only concerns direct employment, but also ¢he up arid da,,~nstream indirect omi in a systemic, integrated vision ot the economic, production and social s.~!stem, in t hi'-, frame~'or'k the increasing demand lot "service.¢ utilb, ing the ne~,,' products, such as those for agrtculture ([emh/at~o~ and pest o}ntrol) or those for health, undoubtedly affords real/possibiliti:s for enl I Iovment ,~r skilled labour. Even the production tof special materials ,Ind of complex nmnufactured goods utili/ing such materials ma~' con.titute a labour-employing factor. gT. It ,,~,ill be necessary to give sp :cific c..,v.sideration to labour-intcnsi,e and relatively lov,-capi~al-intensi~ e technologies. "Appr~bpriate" technologles ha~.e been considered for the de,.eloping countries and only recently they ha,,e also been considered for the industrialized nation,s. l a e de,,elopment of app;opriate tec lr~ologies is a dilficult and complex problem I hc) are sometimes Jelerred to its "utopian technolt~.gie~.'. tlo,,,,e',er, t ~ey represent a clml ;'nee which, il o,,ercomc, will gi~e a conlrihuliol~ In the ,,olution Of the serious issue of unemployment. Apprt~priat, tct'hnologies alone ,,I~ould n¢.t be considered a panacea, 13131 rather a conlplelllelll:lr~ tool ol the more sophisticated and capitalil~lensi~,e technologic,, ~hich arc ntli,,pensablc in many fields starting from the base indus~'.ly. It is ncc;ssarv, therefore, to achieve a kind of "technological phtrali,m" by idept fying the fields of activity and the arras in xshLch tt is con, enient to oper~ te s~ith these appropriate IcchnologJt:s v, ith the a~m of reatlfing a bettc:r equilibrium bet,~een centrali,'cd at~d do.',:n~rali/¢d econon~ic structure,. .

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230

U. t'olo~nbo

88. Some of the forthcoming developments in the chemical industry, as in ~ther sectors, do en'tail important i~lplication:~ as far ~Lsthe industrial :strt~ct~Jre is concer,ed. There is. in |act, a growing ne:d to resh~pe ~9me ind~strial ;:Lctivity on the basis of tile type and nature of the complex p~'oiglems t.,:, be faceci, in a systemic approach ~hat requires the contribution of m~ny industrial branches a , d related discipine~i. Some of the exer~tlples cc,nsidered in this report (.,iuch as the management of agricultural prodt~ction wit~l the aid of biologic pest control,'or the development of c,:~mple:~, ,and decentralized energy ~,,ystems, or else the management of water systems for the various requiren~ents of society) indicate that there is a ~aeed for industrial enterprises, c~lpable of acting as architects in the man:tgement of the,~e problems. 89. At ;a first gicnce the ,':hemi~:al industk'y, whi~'h is so pervasive aad whic~ interacts with the other sec~or~ of economy, might appear, t oge~:her with ithe~elec'tronics industry that ha,,; sol;aewhat similar characte~'i.~;tic~;,to be b~!tter prepared to assume this ne~ ~'ole. Tl:is very character, ~owever, could inste,~d lead ~he cheraical anti electronics ir~dustries to take on es.,;entially a service fJnction and let ,other industries;, already structure~; :~o cope ~vith problems of a 'systemic nature (such as the automotive or the heavy electromechanics industries), advance in these emerging fields. While :,:his is still a matter open for conjecture, it is cle~tr that the rate and direction of technical innove~tion will be affected by the type of structural changes that will take place in industry as a response to the challenges of an ever more corfiplex and detranding society. 90. Innovation - especially the '.~'pe of innovation ~ represents in this fr.ar.~ework a factor of social reshap;ng and. therelo~,:e, a 9rimary political thctor j~st as resistance to innovmion has import~n: so~:!.~land economic consequences. This is not new: looking back, for e.,~anip'.e, to the industrial revolution i~ the second half of the I:~th century, the innovation process led to a s.imilar dramatic ~upture of the then existing economic and social system. The attitude of a .,~ociety towards change ts ap essential element for innova~!iio~:. Or~e should keep in mind that there are many and different reasons to lainder this change and encoura~.e conservation • contingent reasons such as e~isting economic d ifficulties; reasons relating to ~ whole series of v~'sted interests and established ~t~abas and customs, as ~,vellas those con,:v~cted to the considerable complexity and ir,ter-relatio~ of existing str~Jctures. ~l. The prelimina~::¢ conclusions resultir~g from this sketchy analysis of innovatior in the chemical and related industries could also have been

If: ~ovalion and the chemical mdustrr

231

reached through the analysis of other industrial sectors. ~ e can therefore affirr.~ teat innovation after a period of uncertainty in recent years, due to the growing structural and social ca~astraints, could :'ind a recovery and develop along somewhat new and still not completely defined line~. In quanIitative terms; in future decades innovation couht be as important as it was in the past ones. However, f~Jture innovation is to be mainly ~een from the qualitative standpoint. In this re.'@ect it does not appear to be deva!,Jed or confined to marginal r,)les of improvement of substantia.lly crystallized situations; on the contrary, it seems to be characterized by a great vitality and by much newer and more stimulating ~rcnds therelore capable of deeply affecting the economic and social tissue and of pro'ddirlg guidelines for its renewal. 92. This innovative development i.~ characterized by the ~,timulus t~l~ a large number of const"aints, by tht~ need foJ much more fundamental scientific research, by a widely int('r,:iisciplinary approach, by the development of the areas on the border-ti:'ie between different disciplines a~,], therefore, between different activities - in short, areas of a non-.traditional type.