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Achieving peace by the year 2000
208
Book reviews
methodological self-consciousness and recognition of the limits as well as the strengths of quantitative methods in the analysis of the dynamics of long cycles. Although Goldstein has carried the debates on long waves and hegemony cycles a major step forward through a path-breaking theoretical synthesis, meticulous statistical analysis, and an explicit theoretically-driven analysis of the present and forecast of the future, those who regard the integrated theory as the core of the book may be left with the feeling that more could have been done. Perhaps too much time is spent in surveying in considerable detail all the literature that has any bearing on the long wave and hegemony/war debates, and on a historical reinterpretation of the last five centuries, and too little (primarily one chapter) on the full development of the complex causal linkages of the theory. The central theoretical relationship between production and war is certainly plausible, but it could be further developed. Why does competition for
Putting a framework
resources on the periphery of the system necessarily lead to hegemonic wars among core states rather than to their mutual exploitation of the periphery? Even more important, what is the linkage between economic expansion or decline in the world system and the differential rates of growth of individual states, changes in distribution of military power between them, and the outbreak of major core war? This is a central theme in the literature on hegemonic transitions and war, but it is not given adequate attention in the development of Goldstein’s theory. Decisions for war and peace are strongly (but not exclusively) influenced by the dyadic balance of military power between two adversaries, and this factor needs to be included. In spite of these and other limitations, Long Cycles is a major step forward in the analysis of the linkages between long waves and cycles of hegemony and war. It is also essential reading for those interested in analysing future trends in the world economic and security systems.
.
.
on a vlslon
Bruce Kent Achieving Peace by the Year 2000 John Huddleston 143 pages, f3.50 (London, One World lications,
Pub-
1988)
This is a short, interesting and mildly annoying book. Its great merit is the author’s conviction which comes through powerfully that war can be and ought to be removed from the world’s agenda. More than that he thinks it can be done by the turn of the century. The obvious problems which stand massively in the way melt in front of his determined gaze. It is going to Bruce Kent is Chairman of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, 22-24 Underwood Street, London Nl 7JG, UK.
happen if only a few heads are banged together and people get on with the tasks mapped out for them. The book has no index, though there are some interesting statistics at the back about militarism and its consequences. Index or not, I failed to get the impression that the author has spent much time examining the work of those who have travelled on this road before him. Of George Kennan, Philip Noel Baker, Olaf Palme, lnge Thorssen, Fenner Brockway, the Six Nations Peace Initiative or the three United Nations Special Sessions on Disarmament, for instance, I found little or nothing. Inspired by his Baha’i faith, and thank God for that, it looks as if John Huddleston has decided to enter
FUTURES
April 1989
Book
a field in which he is something of a stranger. This is more than welcome, even though it would be good to have a few more autobiographical reflections. How does he now see his five years with the UK Ministry of Defence? What response does he make to those who accuse his present employers, the International Monetary Fund, of helping to inflict the poverty and deprivation on the Third World which he rightly describes as one of the causes of war? Whatever his background, the central message of the book makes good sense. We have to move towards a more international, less sovereign state world. As the world contracts and threats become more obviously transnational, whether war, pollution, disease or famine, this new perspective becomes the only realistic one. Causes of war
It was a pleasure, therefore, to see the author’s analysis of the causes of war which, in his view, range from extreme nationalism and economic exploitation to arms competition and, sadly, religious strife. His list could be substantially expanded. I wish he had also mentioned the spirit of conformity which makes it so difficult to say ‘No’, at personal cost, to state violence. Conscientious objectors to militarism, in uniform or out of it, still remain rare birds. The scientific community in particular seems to accept too little personal responsibility for what it does. Lawyers have yet to take seriously international law in relation to threats to mass destruction. What of practical proposals? The preface claims that one of the purposes of the book is to encourage every reader ‘to consider how he or she can actively work for peace’. The practical proposals hardly achieve that aim. Lots of projects for governments are set out in some detail. They range from a treaty outlawing war to another dismantling military alliances. It would indeed be good if World Court decisions could be enforced, an international peace force created and a system of compulsory arbitration of interna-
FUTURES April 1989
reviews
209
tional disputes set up. Among all these worthy proposals I wasn’t quite so happy with the unqualified little aside, ‘Countries should . . . retain sufficient forces . . . to suppress internal insurPinochet, Botha, Jaruzelski rection’. and GHQ Northern Ireland would all warm to that. One major proposal is on the edge of na’ive. The present United Nations Security Council is supposed to cooperate in the setting up of a new World Peace Council and from then on to ‘assume a much lower profile’. I wonder how the permanent members of the Security Council will be persuaded to take to that? Moreover, the author gives no indication that he knows that the very title ‘World Peace Council’ will ring out regular reminders of the existing Helsinki-based propagandist peace organ of the Eastern bloc which has exactly that name and has been famous for too long for expensive, manipulated conferences. The major problem with the book, like so many which precede it in offering blueprints, is that it has little to say about personal motivation, voluntary funding, practical campaigning and the creation of the popular pressure capable of surviving government hostility which has to precede political change. The author’s notion that the UN International Year of Peace in 1986 marked some great moment of ‘forward impetus’ is, unfortunately, largely an illusion. That year was, for instance, ignored by the UK government, and its very existence was unknown to 99% of its citizens. Many times ‘the peace movement’ is told to do this and avoid that. It has to demonstrate ‘responsibility and intellectual integrity’ but must not become ‘cold and intellectual’, ought to form a ‘worldwide federation’, needs to ‘mobilise popular sentiment’, should convoke ‘a World Assembly devoted exclusively to the issue of peace . , .‘. Dear me. So many recommendations and instructions from one who knows all too little about the existing organizations, their perspectives and problems. He has also swallowed not a small dose of contemporary propaganda himself in his description of Soviet
210
Book
reviews
conventional capability and his doubts about unilateral or independent initiatives. But the merit of the book is that it puts a framework on a vision. Despite criticism of details, that contribution
Changing
economic
must not be underestimated. Before the author gets to work on his second edition I hope he will find time to discuss his ideas with others travelling on the same road. They have things to learn as well as ideas to share.
base of cities
David Banister The Future of the Metropolis-Berlin, London, Paris, New York: Economic Aspects H.-J. Ewers, J. B. Goddard and H. Matzerath (editors) 484 pages, $49.95 (Berlin, Walter de Cruyter, 1986) Reviewers are often filled with a feeling of foreboding and sometimes despair when confronted with a massive collection of conference papers masquerading under the guise of a book. However, in this case we have an exception. This international conference on the future of the Metropolis brought together a galaxy of researchers with a common purpose to develop future options for Berlin through continuing the debate on the changing economic base of cities and a series of case studies taken from London, Paris and New York. The scope has been thrown wider to include papers on the national and political context within which cities have to function. At the end it is doubtful whether the future for Berlin is any clearer, but the wealth of material presented in over 450 pages provides more than a starting point. The book is divided into three parts. The first part gives a historical overview in an attempt to find common strands in the development of the four cities. It seems that each went through David Banister is at the Bartlett School of Architecture and Planning, University College London, Wates House, 22 Gordon Street, London WCIH OQB, UK.
an industrialization stage around 1900 and that the reverse process of deindustralization has been taking place since 1970. This element of commonality has been linked by several authors to the Kondratieff-Schumpeter theory where each long wave in the cycle of economic growth and decline is triggered off by a series of product innovations that create new industries-the wave around 1900 brought electrical engineering, motor vehicles, chemicals and a great variety of consumer industries. Mensch developed these ideas further to argue that innovation swarms exist where product innovation is followed by process innovation and the substitution of capital for labour, which in turn results in increased international competition. The boom period is thus followed by a downturn and a period of high unemployment-this occurred in the 1930s and was followed by the next peak in the cycle in the early 1950s. We are currently in the depths of a depressive phase with the expectation of another high spot at the turn of the century, if the theory holds. Within this framework, however, each city has developed in a very different way. There seem to be similarities between Berlin and Paris as each had a dominant role with respect to government and the centralization of functions (eg, financial) and was at the hub of the transport systems, at least until the Second World War. New York’s evolution is relatively recent and has always looked outward with its strong links to Europe, and it has now become
FUTURES
April 1989
Book reviews
methodological self-consciousness and recognition of the limits as well as the strengths of quantitative methods in the analysis of the dynamics of long cycles. Although Goldstein has carried the debates on long waves and hegemony cycles a major step forward through a path-breaking theoretical synthesis, meticulous statistical analysis, and an explicit theoretically-driven analysis of the present and forecast of the future, those who regard the integrated theory as the core of the book may be left with the feeling that more could have been done. Perhaps too much time is spent in surveying in considerable detail all the literature that has any bearing on the long wave and hegemony/war debates, and on a historical reinterpretation of the last five centuries, and too little (primarily one chapter) on the full development of the complex causal linkages of the theory. The central theoretical relationship between production and war is certainly plausible, but it could be further developed. Why does competition for
Putting a framework
resources on the periphery of the system necessarily lead to hegemonic wars among core states rather than to their mutual exploitation of the periphery? Even more important, what is the linkage between economic expansion or decline in the world system and the differential rates of growth of individual states, changes in distribution of military power between them, and the outbreak of major core war? This is a central theme in the literature on hegemonic transitions and war, but it is not given adequate attention in the development of Goldstein’s theory. Decisions for war and peace are strongly (but not exclusively) influenced by the dyadic balance of military power between two adversaries, and this factor needs to be included. In spite of these and other limitations, Long Cycles is a major step forward in the analysis of the linkages between long waves and cycles of hegemony and war. It is also essential reading for those interested in analysing future trends in the world economic and security systems.
.
.
on a vlslon
Bruce Kent Achieving Peace by the Year 2000 John Huddleston 143 pages, f3.50 (London, One World lications,
Pub-
1988)
This is a short, interesting and mildly annoying book. Its great merit is the author’s conviction which comes through powerfully that war can be and ought to be removed from the world’s agenda. More than that he thinks it can be done by the turn of the century. The obvious problems which stand massively in the way melt in front of his determined gaze. It is going to Bruce Kent is Chairman of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, 22-24 Underwood Street, London Nl 7JG, UK.
happen if only a few heads are banged together and people get on with the tasks mapped out for them. The book has no index, though there are some interesting statistics at the back about militarism and its consequences. Index or not, I failed to get the impression that the author has spent much time examining the work of those who have travelled on this road before him. Of George Kennan, Philip Noel Baker, Olaf Palme, lnge Thorssen, Fenner Brockway, the Six Nations Peace Initiative or the three United Nations Special Sessions on Disarmament, for instance, I found little or nothing. Inspired by his Baha’i faith, and thank God for that, it looks as if John Huddleston has decided to enter
FUTURES
April 1989
Book
a field in which he is something of a stranger. This is more than welcome, even though it would be good to have a few more autobiographical reflections. How does he now see his five years with the UK Ministry of Defence? What response does he make to those who accuse his present employers, the International Monetary Fund, of helping to inflict the poverty and deprivation on the Third World which he rightly describes as one of the causes of war? Whatever his background, the central message of the book makes good sense. We have to move towards a more international, less sovereign state world. As the world contracts and threats become more obviously transnational, whether war, pollution, disease or famine, this new perspective becomes the only realistic one. Causes of war
It was a pleasure, therefore, to see the author’s analysis of the causes of war which, in his view, range from extreme nationalism and economic exploitation to arms competition and, sadly, religious strife. His list could be substantially expanded. I wish he had also mentioned the spirit of conformity which makes it so difficult to say ‘No’, at personal cost, to state violence. Conscientious objectors to militarism, in uniform or out of it, still remain rare birds. The scientific community in particular seems to accept too little personal responsibility for what it does. Lawyers have yet to take seriously international law in relation to threats to mass destruction. What of practical proposals? The preface claims that one of the purposes of the book is to encourage every reader ‘to consider how he or she can actively work for peace’. The practical proposals hardly achieve that aim. Lots of projects for governments are set out in some detail. They range from a treaty outlawing war to another dismantling military alliances. It would indeed be good if World Court decisions could be enforced, an international peace force created and a system of compulsory arbitration of interna-
FUTURES April 1989
reviews
209
tional disputes set up. Among all these worthy proposals I wasn’t quite so happy with the unqualified little aside, ‘Countries should . . . retain sufficient forces . . . to suppress internal insurPinochet, Botha, Jaruzelski rection’. and GHQ Northern Ireland would all warm to that. One major proposal is on the edge of na’ive. The present United Nations Security Council is supposed to cooperate in the setting up of a new World Peace Council and from then on to ‘assume a much lower profile’. I wonder how the permanent members of the Security Council will be persuaded to take to that? Moreover, the author gives no indication that he knows that the very title ‘World Peace Council’ will ring out regular reminders of the existing Helsinki-based propagandist peace organ of the Eastern bloc which has exactly that name and has been famous for too long for expensive, manipulated conferences. The major problem with the book, like so many which precede it in offering blueprints, is that it has little to say about personal motivation, voluntary funding, practical campaigning and the creation of the popular pressure capable of surviving government hostility which has to precede political change. The author’s notion that the UN International Year of Peace in 1986 marked some great moment of ‘forward impetus’ is, unfortunately, largely an illusion. That year was, for instance, ignored by the UK government, and its very existence was unknown to 99% of its citizens. Many times ‘the peace movement’ is told to do this and avoid that. It has to demonstrate ‘responsibility and intellectual integrity’ but must not become ‘cold and intellectual’, ought to form a ‘worldwide federation’, needs to ‘mobilise popular sentiment’, should convoke ‘a World Assembly devoted exclusively to the issue of peace . , .‘. Dear me. So many recommendations and instructions from one who knows all too little about the existing organizations, their perspectives and problems. He has also swallowed not a small dose of contemporary propaganda himself in his description of Soviet
210
Book
reviews
conventional capability and his doubts about unilateral or independent initiatives. But the merit of the book is that it puts a framework on a vision. Despite criticism of details, that contribution
Changing
economic
must not be underestimated. Before the author gets to work on his second edition I hope he will find time to discuss his ideas with others travelling on the same road. They have things to learn as well as ideas to share.
base of cities
David Banister The Future of the Metropolis-Berlin, London, Paris, New York: Economic Aspects H.-J. Ewers, J. B. Goddard and H. Matzerath (editors) 484 pages, $49.95 (Berlin, Walter de Cruyter, 1986) Reviewers are often filled with a feeling of foreboding and sometimes despair when confronted with a massive collection of conference papers masquerading under the guise of a book. However, in this case we have an exception. This international conference on the future of the Metropolis brought together a galaxy of researchers with a common purpose to develop future options for Berlin through continuing the debate on the changing economic base of cities and a series of case studies taken from London, Paris and New York. The scope has been thrown wider to include papers on the national and political context within which cities have to function. At the end it is doubtful whether the future for Berlin is any clearer, but the wealth of material presented in over 450 pages provides more than a starting point. The book is divided into three parts. The first part gives a historical overview in an attempt to find common strands in the development of the four cities. It seems that each went through David Banister is at the Bartlett School of Architecture and Planning, University College London, Wates House, 22 Gordon Street, London WCIH OQB, UK.
an industrialization stage around 1900 and that the reverse process of deindustralization has been taking place since 1970. This element of commonality has been linked by several authors to the Kondratieff-Schumpeter theory where each long wave in the cycle of economic growth and decline is triggered off by a series of product innovations that create new industries-the wave around 1900 brought electrical engineering, motor vehicles, chemicals and a great variety of consumer industries. Mensch developed these ideas further to argue that innovation swarms exist where product innovation is followed by process innovation and the substitution of capital for labour, which in turn results in increased international competition. The boom period is thus followed by a downturn and a period of high unemployment-this occurred in the 1930s and was followed by the next peak in the cycle in the early 1950s. We are currently in the depths of a depressive phase with the expectation of another high spot at the turn of the century, if the theory holds. Within this framework, however, each city has developed in a very different way. There seem to be similarities between Berlin and Paris as each had a dominant role with respect to government and the centralization of functions (eg, financial) and was at the hub of the transport systems, at least until the Second World War. New York’s evolution is relatively recent and has always looked outward with its strong links to Europe, and it has now become
FUTURES
April 1989